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Abstract: With the aim of developing of an ensemble forecasting system for the short‐range, the validity of a multi‐analysis multi‐model approach for initial‐ and boundary‐condition perturbations has been explored by the Consortium for Small‐scale Modelling (COSMO). This approach has been adopted in the COSMO Short‐Range Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO–SREPS), in which members are driven by a few operational deterministic runs. In this work, we show the extent to which this approach is beneficial with respect to the downscaling of a single‐model global ensemble, adopted by the operational COSMO Limited‐Area Ensemble Prediction System (COSMO–LEPS). Both COSMO–SREPS and COSMO–LEPS are made up of 16 integrations of the COSMO model with 7 km horizontal mesh size. Results based on the 2010–2011 winter season show that the 16 member COSMO–LEPS outperforms the 16 member COSMO–SREPS, which has boundaries perturbed by three global model runs only, but the reverse is true when the three‐member versions of the two systems are compared. Hence, if only a small‐size Limited‐Area Model (LAM) ensemble is feasible, then the multimodel approach for boundaries gives better results. The dependence of the scores on ensemble size is also studied, showing that all the quality measures tend to saturate before the full size is reached. Finally, the impact of combining the two ensembles is assessed, showing that a positive impact results from adding multi‐model‐driven members to COSMO–LEPS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the first Hymex campaign (5 September-6 November 2012) referred to as Special Observation Period (SOP-1), dedicated to heavy precipitation events and flash floods in Western Mediterranean, three Italian hydro-meteorological monitoring sites were activated: Liguria-Tuscany, North-Eastern Italy and Central Italy. The extraordinary deployment of advanced instrumentation, including instrumented aircrafts, and the use of several different operational weather forecast models has allowed an unprecedented monitoring and analysis of high impact weather events around the Italian hydro-meteorological sites. This activity has seen the strict collaboration between the Italian scientific and operational communities. In this paper, an overview of the Italian organization during the SOP-1 is provided, and selected Intensive Observation Periods (IOPs) are described. A significant event for each Italian target area is chosen for this analysis: IOP2 (12-13 September 2012) in North-Eastern Italy, IOP13 (15-16 October 2012) in Central Italy and IOP19 (3-5 November 2012) in Liguria and Tuscany. For each IOP the meteorological characteristics, together with special observations and weather forecasts, are analyzed with the aim of highlighting strengths and weaknesses of the forecast modeling systems. Moreover, using one of the three events, the usefulness of different operational chains is highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical weather prediction models can be coupled with hydrological models to generate streamflow forecasts. Several ensemble approaches have been recently developed in order to take into account the different sources of errors and provide probabilistic forecasts feeding a flood forecasting system. Within this framework, the present study aims at comparing two high-resolution limited-area meteorological ensembles, covering short and medium range, obtained via different methodologies, but implemented with similar number of members, horizontal resolution (about 7 km), and driving global ensemble prediction system. The former is a multi-model ensemble, based on three mesoscale models (BOLAM, COSMO, and WRF), while the latter, following a single-model approach, is the operational ensemble forecasting system developed within the COSMO consortium, COSMO-LEPS (Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System). The meteorological models are coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model (TOP- KAPI) to simulate the discharge of the Reno River (Northern Italy), for a recent severe weather episode affecting Northern Apennines. The evaluation of the ensemble systems is performed both from a meteorological perspective over the entire Northern Italy and in terms of discharge prediction over the Reno River basin during two periods of heavy precipitation between 29 November and 2 December 2008. For each period, ensemble performance has been compared at two different forecast ranges. It is found that both mesoscale model ensembles remarkably outperform the global ensemble for application at basin scale as the horizontal resolution plays a relevant role in modulating the precipitation distribution. Moreover, the multi-model ensemble provides more informative probabilistic predictions with respect to COSMO-LEPS, since it is characterized by a larger spread especially at short lead times. A thorough analysis of the multi-model results shows that this behaviour is due to the different characteristics of the involved meteorological models and represents the added value of the multi-model approach. Finally, a different behaviour comes out at different forecast ranges. For short ranges, the impact of boundary conditions is weaker and the spread can be mainly attributed to the different characteristics of the models. At longer forecast ranges, the similar behaviour of the multi-model members, forced by the same large scale conditions, indicates that the systems are governed mainly by the large scale boundary conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article reports the progress of the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) resolution to eliminate rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) in the Americas by the year 2010. The PAHO strategy involved introducing rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into routine vaccination programs of all countries for children aged 12 months, conducting a one-time mass campaign among adolescents and adults, and integrating rubella surveillance with measles surveillance. All 38 countries and territories in the Americas with the exception of Haiti have introduced measles-mumps-rubella vaccine (MMR).

In 2003, the Pan American Health Organization (PAHO) adopted a resolution calling for rubella and congenital rubella syndrome (CRS) elimination in the Americas by the year 2010. To accomplish this goal, PAHO advanced a rubella and CRS elimination strategy including introduction of rubella-containing vaccines into routine vaccination programs accompanied by high immunization coverage, interruption of rubella transmission through mass vaccination of adolescents and adults, and strengthened surveillance for rubella and CRS. The rubella elimination strategies were aligned with the successful measles elimination strategies. By the end of 2009, all countries routinely vaccinated children against rubella, an estimated 450 million people had been vaccinated against measles and rubella in supplementary immunization activities, and rubella transmission had been interrupted. This article describes how the region eliminated rubella and CRS.

Background: The Region of the Americas set a goal of interrupting endemic measles virus transmission by the end of 2000. This decision was primarily based on rapid decreases in measles disease burden in pioneering countries that implemented Pan American Health Organization-recommended vaccination and surveillance strategies. Review of these strategies may inform measles elimination efforts in other regions., Methods: Results from the implementation of the measles elimination strategy in the Americas were compiled and analyzed over a 30-year period, which was divided into 4 phases: the early years of the Expanded Program on Immunization (1980-1986); the start-up phase for elimination (1987-1994); the elimination phase (1995-2002); and the postelimination phase (2003-2010). Factors that contributed to elimination and the challenges confronted during the postelimination phase are discussed., Results: An analysis of vaccination strategies over time highlights the transition from monovalent measles vaccine to the incorporation of measles-mumps-rubella vaccine administered in the routine program. Regional vaccination coverage increased during the period 1987-2010, sustained at ≥90% since 1998. Measles elimination efforts led to the implementation of 157 national vaccination campaigns, vaccinating a total of 440 million persons. Endemic measles virus transmission was interrupted in 2002. After elimination, measles importations and associated outbreaks occurred. Measles incidence has remained at <1 case per 1 million population since 2002., Conclusions: The success of measles elimination strategies in the Americas suggests that global measles eradication is attainable., (© The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved.)