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Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is a (re)emerging mosquito-borne pathogen impacting human and animal health. How RVFV spreads through a population depends on population-level interactions between hosts and vectors (e.g., vector-to-host ratio and biting preference) and also on potential differences in individual following virus exposure (e.g., transmission efficiencies from host to vector and vice versa). Here, we estimated the probability for RVFV to transmit to naive animals by experimentally exposing lambs to a bite of an infectious mosquito (the transmission efficiency) and assessed if and how RVFV infection subsequently developed in the exposed animal.Aedes aegyptimosquitoes, previously infected via feeding on a viremic lamb, were used to expose naive lambs to the virus. Lambs were either exposed to 1-3 (low exposure) or 7-9 (high exposure) infectious mosquitoes. All lambs in the high exposure group became viremic and showed characteristic signs of Rift Valley fever within 2-4 days post exposure. In contrast, 3 out of 12 lambs in the low exposure group developed viremia and disease, with similar peaks in viremia as the high exposure group but with some heterogeneity in the onset of viremia. These results suggest that the likelihood for successful infection of a ruminant host is affected by the number of infectious mosquitoes biting, but also highlights that a lamb can be infected by a single mosquito. The per bite mosquito-to-host transmission efficiency was estimated at 28% (95% confidence interval: 15 - 47%). We subsequently combined this transmission efficiency with estimates for mosquito life traits into a Ross-McDonald mathematical model to illustrate scenarios under which major RVFV outbreaks could occur in naïve populations (i.e., R0>1). The model revealed that for efficient RVFV transmission relatively high vector-to-host ratios as well as strong feeding preference for competent hosts are required. Altogether, this study highlights the importance of experiments that mimic natural exposure to RVFV. The experiments facilitate a better understanding of the natural progression of disease and a direct way to obtain epidemiological parameters for mathematical models.

Maternal-derived antibodies (MDAs) are one of reasons why vaccination with the H9N2 inactivated whole virus (IWV) vaccine failed in poultry. Unmethylated CpG motif-containing oligodeoxynucleotides (CpG ODN) shows great potential to overcome MDAs interference in mammals, but whether it has similar characteristics in poultry is still unknown. In the present study, different classes and various copies of CpG ODN motifs were cloned into two different plasmids (pCDNA3.1 or T vector). Immunomodulatory activities and immunoadjuvant efficacy of these CpG ODN plasmids were tested in vitro and in vivo in the presence of passively transferred antibodies (PTAs) that were used to mimic MDAs. Results showed that the T vector enriched with 30 copies of CpG-A ODN and 20 copies of CpG-B ODN (T-CpG-AB) significantly up-regulated mRNA expression of chicken-interferon-α (ch-IFN-α), chicken-interferon-β (ch-IFN-β) and chicken-interleukin-12 protein 40 (ch-IL-12p40). When administered as adjuvant of the H9N2 IWV vaccine, the minimal dose of T-CpG-AB plasmid was 30 µg per one-day-old chicken, which could induce strong humoral immune responses in the presence of PTAs. Furthermore, T-CpG-AB plasmid-based vaccine triggered both strong humoral immune responses and cytokines expression in the presence of PTAs in chickens. Overall, our findings suggest that T-CpG-AB plasmid can be an excellent adjuvant candidate for the H9N2 IWV vaccine to overcome MDAs interference in chickens.

Background Reassortment between human and avian influenza viruses (AIV) may result in novel viruses with new characteristics that may threaten human health when causing the next flu pandemic. A particular risk may be posed by avian influenza viruses of subtype H9N2 that are currently massively circulating in domestic poultry in Asia and have been shown to infect humans. In this study, we investigate the characteristics and compatibility of a human H1N1 virus with avian H9N2 derived genes. Methods The polymerase activity of the viral ribonucleoprotein (RNP) complex as combinations of polymerase-related gene segments derived from different reassortment events was tested in luciferase reporter assays. Reassortant viruses were generated by reverse genetics. Gene segments of the human WSN-H1N1 virus (A/WSN/1933) were replaced by gene segments of the avian A2093-H9N2 virus (A/chicken/Jiangsu/A2093/2011), which were both the Hemagglutinin (HA) and Neuraminidase (NA) gene segments in combination with one of the genes involved in the RNP complex (either PB2, PB1, PA or NP). The growth kinetics and virulence of reassortant viruses were tested on cell lines and mice. The reassortant viruses were then passaged for five generations in MDCK cells and mice lungs. The HA gene of progeny viruses from different passaging paths was analyzed using Next-Generation Sequencing (NGS). Results We discovered that the avian PB1 gene of H9N2 increased the polymerase activity of the RNP complex in backbone of H1N1. Reassortant viruses were able to replicate in MDCK and DF1 cells and mice. Analysis of the NGS data showed a higher substitution rate for the PB1-reassortant virus. In particular, for the PB1-reassortant virus, increased virulence for mice was measured by increased body weight loss after infection in mice. Conclusions The higher polymerase activity and increased mutation frequency measured for the PB1-reassortant virus suggests that the avian PB1 gene of H9N2 may drive the evolution and adaptation of reassortant viruses to the human host. This study provides novel insights in the characteristics of viruses that may arise by reassortment of human and avian influenza viruses. Surveillance for infections with H9N2 viruses and the emergence of the reassortant viruses in humans is important for pandemic preparedness.

Domestic cats are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 virus infection and given that they are in close contact with people, assessing the potential risk cats represent for the transmission and maintenance of SARS-CoV-2 is important. Assessing this risk implies quantifying transmission from humans-to-cats, from cats-to-cats and from cats-to-humans. Here we quantified the risk of cat-to-cat transmission by reviewing published literature describing transmission either experimentally or under natural conditions in infected households. Data from these studies were collated to quantify the SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number R0 among cats. The estimated R0 was significantly higher than 1, hence cats could play a role in the transmission and maintenance of SARS-CoV-2. Questions that remain to be addressed are the risk of transmission from humans-to-cats and cats-to-humans. Further data on household transmission and data on virus levels in both the environment around infected cats and their exhaled air could be a step towards assessing these risks.

International audience; The purpose of this study was to investigate the origin of the genetic variation in the prevalence of bovine digital dermatitis (DD) by comparing a genetic analysis of infection events to a genetic analysis of disease status. DD is an important endemic infectious disease affecting the claws of cattle. For disease status, we analysed binary data on individual disease status (0,1; indicating being free versus infected), whereas for infections, we analysed binary data on disease transmission events (1,0; indicating becoming infected or not). The analyses of the two traits were compared using cross-validation. The analysis of disease status captures a combination of genetic variation in disease susceptibility and the ability of individuals to recover, whereas the analysis of infections captures genetic variation in susceptibility only. Estimated genetic variances for both traits indicated substantial genetic variation. The GEBV for disease status and infections correlated with only 0.60, indicating that both models indeed capture distinct information. Together, these results suggest the presence of genetic variation not only in disease susceptibility, but also in the ability of individuals to recover from DD. We argue that the presence of genetic variation in recovery implies that breeders should distinguish between infected individuals versus infectious individuals. This is because epidemiological theory shows that selection for recovery is effective only when it targets recovery from being infectious.

Johne’s disease (JD) is a chronic enteritis caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), with control primarily aimed at preventing new infections among calves. The aim of the current study was to quantify calf-to-calf transmission of MAP among penmates in an experimental trial. Newborn Holstein bull calves (n = 32) were allocated into pens of 4, with 2 inoculated (IN) calves and 2 calves that were contact exposed (CE). Calves were group-housed for 3 months, with frequent collection of fecal and blood samples and tissue collection after euthanasia. The basic reproduction ratio (R0) was estimated using a final size (FS) model with a susceptible-infected model, based on INF-γ ELISA and tissue culture followed by qPCR. In addition, the transmission rate parameter (β) for new shedding events was estimated using a general linearized method (GLM) model with a susceptible-infected-susceptible model based on culture, followed by qPCR, of fecal samples collected during group housing. The R0 was derived for IN and CE calves separately, due to a difference in susceptibility, as well as differences in duration of shedding events. Based on the FS model, interferon-γ results from blood samples resulted in a R 0 IG of 0.90 (0.24, 2.59) and tissue culture resulted in a R 0 T of 1.36 (0.45, 3.94). Based on the GLM model, the R0 for CE calves to begin shedding (R 0 CE ) was 3.24 (1.14, 7.41). We concluded that transmission of MAP infection between penmates occurred and that transmission among calves may be an important cause of persistent MAP infection on dairy farms that is currently uncontrolled for in current JD control programs.

Since its introduction in December of 2019, SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 disease, has rapidly spread across the world. Whilst vaccines are being rolled out, non-pharmaceutical interventions remain the most important tools for mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Quantifying the impact of these measures as well as determining what settings are prone to instigating (super)spreading events is important for informed and safe reopening of spaces and the targeting of interventions. Mathematical models can help decipher the complex interactions that underlie virus transmission. Currently, most mathematical models developed during the COVID-19 epidemic evaluate interventions at national or subnational levels. Smaller scales of transmission, such as at the level of indoor spaces, have received less attention, despite the central role they play in both transmission and control. Models that do act on this scale use simplified descriptions of human behavior, impeding a valid quantitative analysis of the impact of interventions on transmission in indoor spaces, particularly those that aim for physical distancing. To more accurately predict the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 through a pedestrian environment, we introduce a model that links pedestrian movement and choice dynamics with SARS-CoV-2 spreading models.The objective of this paper is to investigate the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in indoor spaces as it arises from human interactions and assess the relative impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions thereon. We developed a world-wide unique combined Pedestrian Dynamics - Virus Spread model (PeDViS model), which combines insights from pedestrian modelling, epidemiology, and IT-design. In particular, an expert-driven activity assignment model is coupled with the microscopic simulation model (Nomad) and a virus spread model (QVEmod).We first describe the non-linear relationships between the risks of exposure to the virus and the duration, distance, and context of human interactions. We compared virus exposure relative to a benchmark contact (1.5meters for 15 minutes): a threshold often used by public health agencies to determine ‘at risk’ contacts. We discuss circumstances under which individuals that adhere to common distancing measures may nevertheless be at risk. Specifically, we illustrate the stark increase in exposure at shorter distances, as well as longer contact durations. These risks increase when the infected individual was present in the space before the interaction occurred, as a result of buildup of virus in the environment. The latter is particularly true in poorly ventilated spaces and highlights the importance of good ventilation to prevent potential virus exposure through indirect transmission routes. Combining intervention tools that target different routes of transmission can aid in accumulating impact. We use face masks as an example, which are particularly effective at reducing virus spread that is not affected by ventilation. We then demonstrate the use of PeDViS using a simple restaurant case study, focussing on transmission between guests. In this setting the exposure risk to individuals that are not seated at the same table is limited, but guests seated at nearby tables are estimated to experience exposure risks that surpass that of the benchmark contact. These risks are larger in low ventilation scenarios. Lastly, we illustrate that the impact of intervention measures on the number of new infections heavily depends on the relative efficiency of the direct and indirect transmission routes considered. This uncertainty should be considered when assessing the risks of transmission upon different types of human interactions in indoor spaces.The PeDViS case study shows the multi-dimensionality of SARS-CoV-2 that emerges from the interplay of human behaviour and the spread of respiratory viruses in indoor spaces. A modelling strategy that incorporates this in risk assessments can be an important tool to inform policy makers and citizens. It can empower them to make better design and policy decisions pertaining to the most effective use of measures to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and safely open up indoor spaces.

Infectious diseases have profound effects on life, both in nature and agriculture. However, a quantitative genetic theory of the host population for the endemic prevalence of infectious diseases is almost entirely lacking. While several studies have demonstrated the relevance of transmission of infections for heritable variation and response to selection, current quantitative genetics ignores transmission. Thus, we lack concepts of breeding value and heritable variation for endemic prevalence, and poorly understand response of endemic prevalence to selection. Here, we integrate quantitative genetics and epidemiology, and propose a quantitative genetic theory for the basic reproduction number R0 and for the endemic prevalence of an infection. We first identify the genetic factors that determine the prevalence. Subsequently, we investigate the population-level consequences of individual genetic variation, for both R0 and the endemic prevalence. Next, we present expressions for the breeding value and heritable variation, for endemic prevalence and individual binary disease status, and show that these depend strongly on the prevalence. Results show that heritable variation for endemic prevalence is substantially greater than currently believed, and increases strongly when prevalence decreases, while heritability of disease status approaches zero. As a consequence, response of the endemic prevalence to selection for lower disease status accelerates considerably when prevalence decreases, in contrast to classical predictions. Finally, we show that most heritable variation for the endemic prevalence is hidden in indirect genetic effects, suggesting a key role for kin-group selection in the evolutionary history of current populations and for genetic improvement in animals and plants., Bijma, Hulst, and De Jong develop a quantitative genetic theory of the host population for both R0 and the prevalence of infectious diseases, showing that most of the heritable variation for endemic prevalence is hidden due to Indirect Genetic Effects resulting from transmission dynamics of the infection. Consequently, genetic variation in the host population and response to selection for the prevalence are large and increase strongly when prevalence decreases. In contrast to classical theory, genetic selection can eradicate infectious diseases.

H9N2 subtype avian influenza has spread dramatically in China ever since first reported in the 1990s. A national vaccination program for poultry was initiated in 1998. Field isolation data show that the widely used inactivated H9N2 vaccine does not provide effective control of the transmission of this low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) virus in poultry. Current research has focused on two reasons: (i) insufficient immune response triggered by the vaccination with the inactivated virus, (ii) the occurrence of escape mutants selected by vaccine-induced immune pressure. However, the lack of effectivity of the inactivated virus vaccine to sufficiently reduce transmission has been noticed. We mimicked the natural infection and transmission process of the H9N2 virus in vaccinated and non-vaccinated chickens. A statistical model was used to estimate the transmission rate parameters among vaccinated chickens, varying in serum hemagglutinin inhibition titers (HIT) and non-vaccinated chickens. We demonstrate, for the first time, that the transmission is not sufficiently reduced by the H9N2 vaccine, even when vaccinated chickens have an IgG serum titer (HIT>23), which is considered protective for vaccination against homologous highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus. Our study does, on the other hand, cast new light on virus transmission and immune escape of LPAI H9N2 virus in vaccinated chickens populations, and shows that new mitigation strategies against LPAI viruses in poultry are needed.

Genetic selection for improved disease resistance is an important part of strategies to combat infectious diseases in agriculture. Quantitative genetic analyses of binary disease status, however, indicate low heritability for most diseases, which restricts the rate of genetic reduction in disease prevalence. Moreover, the common liability threshold model suggests that eradication of an infectious disease via genetic selection is impossible because the observed-scale heritability goes to zero when the prevalence approaches zero. From infectious disease epidemiology, however, we know that eradication of infectious diseases is possible, both in theory and practice, because of positive feedback mechanisms leading to the phenomenon known as herd immunity. The common quantitative genetic models, however, ignore these feedback mechanisms. Here, we integrate quantitative genetic analysis of binary disease status with epidemiological models of transmission, aiming to identify the potential response to selection for reducing the prevalence of endemic infectious diseases. The results show that typical heritability values of binary disease status correspond to a very substantial genetic variation in disease susceptibility among individuals. Moreover, our results show that eradication of infectious diseases by genetic selection is possible in principle. These findings strongly disagree with predictions based on common quantitative genetic models, which ignore the positive feedback effects that occur when reducing the transmission of infectious diseases. Those feedback effects are a specific kind of Indirect Genetic Effects; they contribute substantially to the response to selection and the development of herd immunity (i.e., an effective reproduction ratio less than one).

BackgroundThe transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 determines both the ability of the virus to invade a population and the strength of intervention that would be required to contain or eliminate the spread of infection. The basic reproduction number, R0, provides a quantitative measure of the transmission potential of a pathogen.ObjectiveConduct a scoping review of the available literature providing estimates of R0for SARS-CoV-2, provide an overview of the drivers of variation in R0estimates and the considerations taken in the calculation of the parameter.DesignScoping review of available literature between the 01 December 2019 and 07 May 2020.Data sourcesBoth peer-reviewed and pre-print articles were searched for on PubMed, Google Scholar, MedRxiv and BioRxiv.Selection criteriaStudies were selected for review if (i) the estimation of R0for SARS-CoV-2 represented either the initial stages of the outbreak or the initial stages of the outbreak prior to the onset of widespread population restriction (“lockdown”), (ii) the exact dates of the study period were provided and (iii) the study provided primary estimates of R0.ResultsA total of 20 R0for SARS-CoV-2 estimates were extracted from 15 studies. There was substantial variation in the estimates reported. Estimates derived from mathematical models fell within a wider range of 1.94-6.94 than statistical models which fell between the range of 2.2 to 4.4. Several studies made assumptions about the length of the infectious period which ranged from 5.8-20 days and the serial interval which ranged from 4.41-14 days. For a given set of parameters a longer duration of infectiousness or a longer serial interval equates to a higher R0. Several studies took measures to minimise bias in early case reporting, to account for the potential occurrence of super-spreading events, and to account for early sub-exponential epidemic growth.ConclusionsThe variation in reported estimates of R0reflects the complex nature of the parameter itself, including the context (i.e. social/spatial structure), the methodology used to estimate the parameter, and model assumptions. R0is a fundamental parameter in the study of infectious disease dynamics, however it provides limited practical applicability outside of the context in which it was estimated, and should be calculated and interpreted with this in mind.STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THE SCOPING REVIEWThis study provides an overview of basic reproduction number estimates for SARS-CoV-2 across a range of settings, a fundamental parameter in gauging the transmissibility of an emerging infectious disease.The key drivers of variation in R0estimates and considerations in the calculation of the parameter highlighted across the reviewed studies are discussed.This evidence may be used to help inform modelling studies and intervention strategies.Given the need for rapid dissemination of information on a newly emerging infectious disease, several of the reviewed papers were in the pre-print phase yet to be peer-reviewed.

Understanding the dynamics of the selection of influenza A immune escape variants by serum antibody is critical for designing effective vaccination programs for animals, especially poultry where large populations have a short generation time and may be vaccinated with high frequency. In this report, immune-escape mutants of A/turkey/New York/4450/1994 H7N2 low pathogenic avian influenza virus, were selected by serially passaging the virus in the presence of continuously increasing concentrations of homologous chicken polyclonal sera. Amino acid mutations were identified by sequencing the parental hemagglutinin (HA) gene and every 10 passages by both Sanger and deep sequencing, and the antigenic distance of the mutants to the parent strain was determined. Progressively, a total of five amino acid mutations were observed over the course of 30 passages. Based on their absence from the parental virus with deep sequencing, the mutations appear to have developed de novo. The antigenic distance between the selected mutants and the parent strain increased as the number of amino acid mutations accumulated and the concentration of antibodies had to be periodically increased to maintain the same reduction in virus titer during selection. This selection system demonstrates how H7 avian influenza viruses behave under selection with homologous sera, and provides a glimpse of their evolutionary dynamics, which can be applied to developing vaccination programs that maximize the effectiveness of a vaccine over time.

Quantitative understanding of transmission with and without control measures is important for the control of infectious diseases because it helps to determine which of these measures (or combinations thereof) will be effective to reduce transmission. In this paper, the statistical methods used to estimate transmission parameters are explained. To show how these methods can be used we reviewed literature for papers describing foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) transmission in pigs and we used the data to estimate transmission parameters. The analysis showed that FMDV transmits very well when pigs have direct contact. Transmission, however, is reduced when a physical barrier separates infected and susceptible non-vaccinated pigs. Vaccination of pigs can prevent infection when virus is administered by a single intradermal virus injection in the bulb of the heel, but it cannot prevent infection when pigs are directly exposed to either non-vaccinated or vaccinated FMDV infected pigs. Physical separation combined with vaccination is observed to block transmission. Vaccination and separation can make a significant difference in the estimated number of new infections per day. Experimental transmission studies show that the combined effect of vaccination and physical separation can significantly reduce transmission (R < 1), which is a very relevant result for the control of between-farm transmission.

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is an acute or inapparent viral disease of cattle which is endemic in many African and Middle East countries. LSD is one of the major transboundary livestock diseases in Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study using multistage cluster sampling was undertaken in central and north-western parts of Ethiopia with the objectives to estimate seroprevalence and to identify and quantify risk factors contributing to the occurrence of the disease. A total of 2386 cattle sera were sampled from 605 herds and 30 clusters (kebeles) located in 10 districts and tested for presence of LSD virus antibodies using virus neutralization test. All the serum samples were collected from cattle having no history of LSD vaccination. The overall animal level and herd level apparent seroprevalences were 25.4% (95% CI: 23.7–27.2) and 48.9% (95% CI: 44.9-52.9), respectively and varied significantly between districts. The true animal level and herd level prevalences were estimated as 26.5% (95% CI: 24.7–28.3) and 52.6% (95% CI: 48.3–56.9), respectively. At animal level, adult age (OR = 2.44 (95% CI: 1.67–3.55) compared to calf), contact with other animals (OR = 0.41 (95% CI: 0.23-0.74), compared to no contact) and presence of water bodies (OR = 1.61 (95% CI: 1.03–2.52), compared to no such bodies) were identified as the most important risk factors in relation to testing LSD positive. The putative risk factors altitude, breed, sex, and presence of animal trade route showed no significant association with LSD sero-status. Generally, cattle population with many adult animals and that live in wet areas are at highest risk, whereas cattle in frequent contact with other animals and animal species have lower risk, potentially due to a dilution effect of vectors.

Migration can influence dynamics of pathogen-host interactions. However, it is not clearly known how migration pattern, in terms of the configuration of the migration network and the synchrony of migration, affects infection prevalence. We therefore applied a discrete-time SIR model, integrating environmental transmission and migration, to various migration networks, including networks with serial, parallel, or both serial and parallel stopover sites, and with various levels of migration synchrony. We applied the model to the infection of avian influenza virus in a migratory geese population. In a network with only serial stopover sites, increasing the number of stopover sites reduced infection prevalence, because with every new stopover site, the amount of virus in the environment was lower than that in the previous stopover site, thereby reducing the exposure of the migratory population. In a network with parallel stopover sites, both increasing the number and earlier appearance of the stopover sites led to an earlier peak of infection prevalence in the migratory population, because the migratory population is exposed to larger total amount of virus in the environment, speeding-up the infection accumulation. Furthermore, higher migration synchrony reduced the average number of cumulative infection, because the majority of the population can fly to a new stopover site where the amount of virus is still relatively low and has not been increased due to virus shedding of infected birds. Our simulations indicate that a migration pattern with multiple serial stopover sites and with highly synchronized migration reduces the infection prevalence.

Digital Dermatitis (DD) is a claw disease mainly affecting the hind feet of dairy cattle. Digital Dermatitis is an infectious disease, transmitted via the environment, where the infectious “agent” is a combination of bacteria. The standardized classification for DD lesions developed by Döpfer et al. (1997) and extended by Berry et al. (2012) has six distinct classes: healthy (M0), an active granulomatous area of 0–2 cm (M1), an ulcerative lesion of >2 cm (M2), an ulcerative lesion covered by a scab (M3), alteration of the skin (M4), and a combination of M4 and M1 (M4.1).We hypothesize that classes M1, M2, M3, M4, and M4.1 are the potentially infectious classes that can contribute to the basic reproduction ratio (R0), the average number of new infections caused by a typical infected individual. Here, we determine differences in infectivity between the classes, the sojourn time in each of the classes, and the contribution of each class to R0.The analysis is based on data from twelve farms in the Netherlands that were visited every two weeks, eleven times.We found that 93.89% of the transitions from M0 was observed as a transition to class M4, and feet with another class-at-infection rapidly transitioned to class M4. As a consequence, about 70% of the infectious time was spent in class M4. Transmission rate parameters of class-at-infection M1, M2, M3, and M4 were not significantly different from each other, but differed from class-at-infection M4.1. However, due to the relative large amount of time spend in class M4, regardless of the class-at-infection, R0 was almost completely determined by this class. The R0 was 2.36, to which class-at-infection M4 alone contributed 88.5%.Thus, M4 lesions should be prevented to lower R0 to a value below one, while painful M2 lesions should be prevented for animal welfare reasons. Keywords: Mortellaro, Hairy heel wrat, Infectivity, Cow, Infection, Basic reproduction ratio

Lumpy skin disease (LSD), an infectious viral disease of cattle, causes considerable financial losses in livestock industry of affected countries. A questionnaire survey with the objectives of determining direct economic losses of LSD (mortality loss, milk loss, draft loss) and treatment costs (medication and labour cost) per affected herd, and assessing the cost effectiveness of vaccination as a means for LSD control was carried out in the central and north-western parts of Ethiopia. From a total of 4430 cattle (in 243 herds) surveyed, 941 animals (in 200 herds) were reported to be infected. The overall morbidity and mortality at animal level were 21.2% and 4.5%, and at herd level these were 82.3% and 24.3%. There was a significant difference in animal level morbidity and mortality between categories of animals. Over 94% of the herd owners ranked LSD as a big or very big problem for cattle production. A large proportion (92.2%) of the herd owners indicated that LSD affects cattle marketing. A median loss of USD 375 (USD 325 in local Zebu and USD 1250 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cattle) was estimated per dead animal. Median losses per affected lactating cow were USD 141 (USD 63 in local Zebu cows and USD 216 in Holstein-Friesian local Zebu cross cows) and, USD 36 per affected ox. Diagnosis and medication cost per affected animal were estimated at USD 5. The median total economic loss of an LSD outbreak at herd level was USD 1176 (USD 489 in subsistence farm and USD 2735 in commercial farm). At herd level, the largest component of the economic loss was due to mortality (USD 1000) followed by milk loss (USD 120). LSD control costs were the least contributor to herd level losses. The total herd level economic losses in the commercial farm type were significantly higher than in the subsistence farm type. The financial analysis showed a positive net profit of USD 136 (USD 56 for subsistence farm herds and USD 283 for commercial herds) per herd due to LSD vaccine investment. It should be noted that only the noticeable direct costs and treatment costs associated with the disease were considered in the study. Generally, vaccination is economically effective and should be encouraged.

Understanding virus shedding patterns of avian influenza virus (AIV) in poultry is important for understanding host-pathogen interactions and developing effective control strategies. Many AIV strains were studied in challenge experiments in poultry, but no study has combined data from those studies to identify general AIV shedding patterns. These systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to summarize qualitative and quantitative information on virus shedding levels and duration for different AIV strains in experimentally infected poultry species. Methods were designed based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. Four electronic databases were used to collect literature. A total of 1155 abstract were screened, with 117 studies selected for the qualitative analysis and 71 studies for the meta-analysis. A large heterogeneity in experimental methods was observed and the quantitative analysis showed that experimental variables such as species, virus origin, age, inoculation route and dose, affect virus shedding (mean, peak and duration) for highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV), low pathogenic AIV (LPAIV) or both. In conclusion, this study highlights the need to standardize experimental procedures, it provides a comprehensive summary of the shedding patterns of AIV strains by infected poultry and identifies the variables that influence the level and duration of AIV shedding.

BackgroundFor infectious diseases, the probability that an animal gets infected depends on its own susceptibility, and on the number of infectious herd mates and their infectivity. Together with the duration of the infectious period, susceptibility and infectivity determine the basic reproduction ratio of the disease ($$ R_{0} $$R0).$$ R_{0} $$R0is the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infectious individual in an otherwise uninfected population. An infectious disease dies out when$$ R_{0} $$R0is lower than 1. Thus, breeding strategies that aim at reducing disease prevalence should focus on reducing$$ R_{0} $$R0, preferably to a value lower than 1. In animal breeding, however,$$ R_{0} $$R0has received little attention. Here, we estimate the additive genetic variance in host susceptibility, host infectivity, and$$ R_{0} $$R0for the endemic claw disease digital dermatitis (DD) in Holstein Friesian dairy cattle, and estimate genomic breeding values (GEBV) for these traits. We recorded DD disease status of both hind claws of 1513 cows from 12 Dutch dairy farms, every 2 weeks, 11 times. The genotype data consisted of 75,904 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) for 1401 of the cows. We modelled the probability that a cow got infected between recordings, and compared four generalized linear mixed models. All models included a genetic effect for susceptibility; Models 2 and 4 also included a genetic effect for infectivity, while Models 1 and 2 included a farm*period interaction. We corrected for variation in exposure to infectious herd mates via an offset.ResultsGEBV for$$ R_{0} $$R0from the model that included genetic effects for susceptibility only had an accuracy of ~ 0.39 based on cross-validation between farms, which is very high given the limited amount of data and the complexity of the trait. Models with a genetic effect for infectivity showed a larger bias, but also a slightly higher accuracy of GEBV. Additive genetic standard deviation for$$ R_{0} $$R0was large, i.e. ~ 1.17, while the mean$$ R_{0} $$R0was 2.36.ConclusionsGEBV for$$ R_{0} $$R0showed substantial variation. The mean$$ R_{0} $$R0was only about one genetic standard deviation greater than 1. These results suggest that lowering DD prevalence by selective breeding is promising.

Background Transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in poultry flocks is associated with huge economic losses, culling of millions of birds, as well as human infections and deaths. In the cases where vaccination against avian influenza is used as a control measure, it has been found to be ineffective in preventing transmission of field strains. Reports suggest that one of the reasons for this is the use of vaccine doses much lower than the ones recommended by the manufacturer, resulting in very low levels of immunity. In a previous study, we selected for immune escape mutants using homologous polyclonal sera and used them as vaccines in transmission experiments. We concluded that provided a threshold of immunity is reached, antigenic distance between vaccine and challenge strains due to selection need not result in vaccine escape. Here, we evaluate the effect that the mutations in the haemagglutinin protein of our most antigenically-distant mutant may have in the transmission efficiency of this mutant to chickens vaccinated against the parent strain, under sub-optimal vaccination conditions resembling those often found in the field. Methods In this study we employed reverse genetics techniques and transmission experiments to examine if the HA mutations of our most antigenically-distant mutant affect its efficiency to transmit to vaccinated chickens. In addition, we simulated sub-optimal vaccination conditions in the field, by using a very low vaccine dose. Results We find that the mutations in the HA protein of our most antigenically-distant mutant are not enough to allow it to evade even low levels of vaccination-induced immunity. Discussion Our results suggest that – for the antigenic distances we investigated – vaccination can reduce transmission of an antigenically-distant strain compared to the unvaccinated groups, even when low vaccine doses are used, resulting in low levels of immunity.

Macroparasites, such as ticks, lice, and helminths, are a concern in livestock and aquaculture production, and can be controlled by genetic improvement of the host population. Genetic improvement should aim at reducing the rate at which parasites spread across the farmed population. This rate is determined by the basic reproduction ratio, i.e. $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ , which is the appropriate breeding goal trait. This study aims at providing a method to derive the economic value of $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ . Costs of a disease are the sum of production losses and expenditures on disease control. Genetic improvement of $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ lowers the loss-expenditure frontier. Its economic effect depends on whether the management strategy is optimized or not. The economic value may be derived either from the reduction in losses with constant expenditures or from the reduction in expenditures with constant losses. When $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ ≤ 1, the economic value of a further reduction is zero because there is no risk of a major epidemic. When $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ > 1 and management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ , because both the mean number of parasites per host and frequency of treatments decrease at an increasing rate when $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ decreases. When $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ > 1 and management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reducing expenditures or losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value depends on a reduction in expenditures with constant losses, and is estimated to be 0.065€/unit $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ /kg production. Response to selection for measures of disease prevalence cannot be predicted from quantitative genetic theory alone. Moreover, many studies fail to address the issue of whether genetic improvement results in reduced losses or expenditures. Using $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ as the breeding goal trait, weighed by its appropriate economic value, avoids these issues. When management is optimized, the economic value increases with decreasing values of $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ (until the threshold of $${\text{R}}_{0} = 1$$ , where it drops to zero). When management is not optimized, the economic value depends on whether genetic improvement is used for reduced expenditures or production losses. For sea lice in salmon, the economic value is estimated to be 0.065 €/unit $${\text{R}}_{0}$$ /kg production.

Vaccination of cattle against bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) has been a long-term policy objective for countries where disease continues to persist despite costly test-and-slaughter programs. The potential use of vaccination within the European Union has been linked to a need for field evaluation of any prospective vaccine and the impact of vaccination on the rate of transmission of bTB. We calculate that estimation of the direct protection of BCG could be achieved with 100 herds, but over 500 herds would be necessary to demonstrate an economic benefit for farmers whose costs are dominated by testing and associated herd restrictions. However, the low and variable attack rate in GB herds means field trials are unlikely to be able to discern any impact of vaccination on transmission. In contrast, experimental natural transmission studies could provide robust evaluation of both the efficacy and mode of action of vaccination using as few as 200 animals., eLife digest Bovine tuberculosis is an infectious disease of livestock and wildlife in many parts of the world. It also can spread to humans. In the United Kingdom (UK), infected cattle and badgers contribute to its spread. To control bovine tuberculosis, cattle are tested and infected animals are slaughtered. Badgers in areas near cattle are killed to keep their populations small and reduce the likelihood of them infecting cattle. These control strategies are very controversial. Testing and slaughtering cattle is expensive and many people object to badger culling. Developing a vaccine that would protect cattle against bovine tuberculosis is a potential alternative approach being investigated by the UK government. But such a vaccination is currently illegal in Europe because vaccinated animals may test positive for infection, creating confusion. Tests for bovine tuberculosis exist, but these DIVA (short for “Differentiates Infected from Vaccinated Animals”) tests are not yet licensed for use in the UK. The European Union (EU) said it would consider relaxing its laws against bovine tuberculosis vaccination if the UK government is able to prove a vaccine is effective on farms. Now, Conlan et al. show that the specific field trials recommended by the EU would have to be extremely large to show a benefit of vaccination. Mathematical models were used to calculate how many cattle herds a bovine tuberculosis vaccine study would need to show that it protects cattle from infection, reduces transmission of the disease, and saves farmers money. Conlan et al. show that a study including 100 herds would be large enough to prove the vaccine protected individual animals. But a trial would have to include 500 herds to show that vaccination saves farmers money. Because transmission of bovine tuberculosis is slow in the UK, trials on working farms are unlikely to be able to measure whether vaccination reduces the spread of the disease. Instead, Conlan et al. show that smaller, less expensive experiments in controlled settings would be able to estimate the effects of bovine tuberculosis vaccination on transmission. These results informed the UK government decision to delay farm-based studies of a bovine tuberculosis vaccine until a DIVA test is available. If vaccination and the use of a DIVA test can be proven to be effective enough to replace test and slaughter policies it could be a huge economic boon to farmers, particularly those in lower income countries.

International audience; AbstractBackgroundInfectious diseases in farm animals affect animal health, decrease animal welfare and can affect human health. Selection and breeding of host individuals with desirable traits regarding infectious diseases can help to fight disease transmission, which is affected by two types of (genetic) traits: host susceptibility and host infectivity. Quantitative genetic studies on infectious diseases generally connect an individual’s disease status to its own genotype, and therefore capture genetic effects on susceptibility only. However, they usually ignore variation in exposure to infectious herd mates, which may limit the accuracy of estimates of genetic effects on susceptibility. Moreover, genetic effects on infectivity will exist as well. Thus, to design optimal breeding strategies, it is essential that genetic effects on infectivity are quantified. Given the potential importance of genetic effects on infectivity, we set out to develop a model to estimate the effect of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. To evaluate the quality of the resulting SNP effect estimates, we simulated an endemic disease in 10 groups of 100 individuals, and recorded time-series data on individual disease status. We quantified bias and precision of the estimates for different sizes of SNP effects, and identified the optimum recording interval when the number of records is limited.ResultsWe present a generalized linear mixed model to estimate the effect of SNPs on both host susceptibility and host infectivity. SNP effects were on average slightly underestimated, i.e. estimates were conservative. Estimates were less precise for infectivity than for susceptibility. Given our sample size, the power to estimate SNP effects for susceptibility was 100% for differences between genotypes of a factor 1.56 or more, and was higher than 60% for infectivity for differences between genotypes of a factor 4 or more. When disease status was recorded 11 times on each animal, the optimal recording interval was 25 to 50% of the average infectious period.ConclusionsOur model was able to estimate genetic effects on susceptibility and infectivity. In future genome-wide association studies, it may serve as a starting point to identify genes that affect disease transmission and disease prevalence.

The current study was carried out in central and North-western parts of Ethiopia to assess the efficacy of Kenyan sheep pox virus strain vaccine (KS1 O-180) against natural lumpy skin disease (LSD) infection under field conditions by estimating its effect on the transmission and severity of the disease. For this study, an LSD outbreak was defined as the occurrence of at least one LSD case in a specified geographical area. An observational study was conducted on a total of 2053 (1304 vaccinated and 749 unvaccinated) cattle in 339 infected herds located in 10 sub-kebeles and a questionnaire survey was administered to 224 herd owners. Over 60% of the herd owners reported that the vaccine has a low to very low effect in protecting animals against clinical LSD; almost all of them indicated that the vaccine did not induce any adverse reactions. In the unvaccinated group of animals 31.1% were diagnosed with LSD while this was 22.5% in the vaccinated group (P < 0.001). Severity of the disease was significantly reduced in vaccinated compared to unvaccinated animals (OR = 0.68, 95% CI: 0.49; 0.96). Unvaccinated infected animals were more likely (predicted fraction = 0.89) to develop moderate and severe disease than vaccinated infected animals (predicted fraction = 0.84). LSD vaccine efficacy for susceptibility was estimated to be 0.46 (i.e. a susceptibility effect of 0.54) while the infectiousness effect of the vaccine was 1.83. In other words, the vaccine reduces the susceptibility by a factor of two and increases infectiousness by approximately the same amount. LSD transmission occurred in both vaccinated and unvaccinated animals, the estimated reproduction ratio (R) was 1.21 in unvaccinated animals compared to 1.19 in vaccinated ones, and not significantly different. In conclusion, KS1 O-180 vaccination, as applied currently in Ethiopia, has poor efficacy in protecting cattle populations against LSD, neither by direct clinical protection nor by reducing transmission, and this signifies the urgent need to either improve the quality of the vaccine or to develop potent alternative vaccines that will confer good protection against LSD.

Heterophyidae are small intestinal trematodes that infect vertebrates worldwide. Common carp (Cyprinus carpio) is one of the most preferred freshwater fish species by consumers in Asia, the region where fish-borne trematodes like Heterophyidae are most prevalent. How long Heterophyidae survive in common carp is unknown. The objective of this study was to quantify survival of Heterophyidae in common carp after experimental exposure. Fish of 0.18 g were either used as controls or exposed to 250 heterophyid cercaria for 24 h. Control fish did not become infected. Percentage infection of exposed fish at 0–2 (n¿=¿53), >2–10 (n¿=¿15), >10–20 (n¿=¿11), and >20–27 (n¿=¿33) weeks post exposure was 98, 80, 100, and 100 % respectively. The number of metacercaria per fish did not significantly decrease (P¿=¿0.19) during 27 weeks after exposure: exp [3.6200–0.0193¿×¿weeks post exposure]. All developed metacercaria were identified as Haplorchis spp. It was concluded that Heterophyidae may persist in carp for a long time, implying that harvestable carp are a risk to human health.

SummaryA fierce debate is going on about the risks of animal husbandry for human health and the quality of control measures to reduce such risks. Risks include the occurrence of infectious diseases, in particular zoonoses, and the high antibiotic use in livestock production contributing to emergence of antibiotic resistance and its spread from animals to humans. On the other hand, many infectious diseases of animals and humans have been eliminated, including brucellosis, tuberculosis, leptospirosis, and BSE, resulting in an animal husbandry that perhaps has never been as safe as nowadays. So while many health risks have been brought under control, the public opinion appears to reflect a feeling of anxiety and mistrust in authorities and producers to deal with the potential and remaining public health risks associated with animal husbandry. These risks, often associated with the intensification of animal production, are nonetheless indeed real. An animal husbandry that is “completely” safe and healthy for humans and animals requires a central role for disease prevention in the design and management of animal husbandry systems. It also requires that rapid and adequate responses are taken by veterinary and medical authorities on both perceived and real risks. Communication on health risks must be complete and open. Because actions to protect the health of animals often also benefit human health, there is usually no conflict of interests between humans and animals regarding their health needs. We emphasize the need to use the precautionary principle in matters of human and animal health. This implies that there must not be a “clash of cultures” between medical and veterinary professionals and policy makers.

Fish-borne Zoonotic Trematodes (FZTs) are a risk to human health and need to be controlled. A mathematical model was developed to give insight into how and to what extent control strategies change the dynamics of FZTs on integrated agriculture–aquaculture farms. The reproduction ratio R evaluates the effects of control strategies. R > 1 implies that the infection may persist, whereas R 54% of reservoir hosts. Snail control could result in R 25 g as compared to 0.5 g that is usual in aquaculture practice, or at > 14 g in combination with treating all humans, led to R

Extended-spectrum and AmpC β-lactamase-producing Escherichia coli (ESBL/AmpC-EC) are found throughout the broiler production pyramid. Transmission of resistance between broilers and humans could occur at any point, representing a potential public health issue. Insight in farm transmission dynamics could provide a basis for control, leading to fewer contaminated broilers. The aim was quantifying transmission rates and routes of ESBL/AmpC-EC, and specific phylogenetic groups, in an organic broiler flock without antibiotic use. In each of two consecutive production rounds, 80 randomly chosen broilers were followed individually. Cloacal swabs from these, 20 other randomly chosen broilers, and 11 environmental samples were taken at several moments from arrival till slaughter. ESBL/AmpC-EC were isolated by selective pre-enrichment, and ESBL/AmpC-genes and E. coli phylogenetic groups were determined. Transmission parameters (β) were estimated using a Generalised Linear Model with a susceptible-infectious-susceptible model. Effect of direct broiler contact as compared to contact through the environment and previous carriage c.q. infectious status and their interaction were included as explanatory variables. Multiplying β by the length of the infectious period gives the reproduction ratio (R). On day 1, prevalence was 28.8% (95%CI 19.2–40.0%) and 0.0% (95%CI 0.0–4.5%) among individually followed broilers, in round 1 and 2 respectively. In round 2, the environment was positive before arrival of day-old chicks. After 3 days, almost 100% of broilers and environmental samples were positive in both rounds. Most samples were positive for CTX-M-1 group genes, and A1 and B1 were predominant phylogenetic groups. From day 3 there was a shift towards more phylogenetic groups. R was 1.70 (95%CI 0.55–5.25) for total ESBL/AmpC-EC. Risk for broilers to become infectious was lower if previously infectious (βpreviously infectious = 0.02 vs. βnot previously infectious = 3.41; P

Live vaccines for coccidiosis control are infrequently used in broilers, mainly due to variability in efficacy and relatively high costs. More insight in transmission of vaccine and wild-type strains can facilitate optimization of vaccination strategies and might increase its use as an alternative for anticoccidial drugs. The aim of this study was to quantify transmission of a live Eimeria acervulina vaccine strain and to determine the degree of protection against a subsequent infection with a wild-type E. acervulina strain. An experiment was carried out with 4 groups of 22 SPF broilers. At 2 days of age, 11 birds of groups 2 to 4 were vaccinated directly by oral application of E. acervulina oocysts of the Paracox (TM) vaccine and 11 birds were placed in contact with these birds (contact-vaccinated). Birds in group 1 remained unvaccinated (controls) and were not exposed to vaccinated birds. At day 28 of age, 6 groups of 10 birds were formed, with 2 groups (duplo) for each treatment group, i.e. vaccinated, contact-vaccinated or unvaccinated control birds. Five birds of each group were orally inoculated with wild-type E. acervulina oocysts and five were contact-exposed. Single droppings were examined daily from days 5 to 49 of age for oocyst output and to determine the time of infection. The transmission rate of the vaccine strain was estimated to be 1.6 per day and of the wild-type strain 2.3, 8.7 and 20.8 per day for vaccinated, contact-vaccinated and unvaccinated birds, respectively. Although transmission of wild-type coccidia was not significantly reduced in vaccinated or contact-vaccinated groups, both groups were equally protected against high oocyst output after infection compared to unvaccinated groups. These results suggest that factors influencing transmission of live vaccine strains in flocks may be important targets for improvement of vaccine efficacy and warrant further research.

Outbreaks of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) in shrimp culture and the relationship between the virus and virulence are not well understood. Here, we provide evidence showing that WSSV mixed-genotype infections correlate with lower outbreak incidence and that disease outbreaks correlate with single-genotype infections. We tested 573 shrimp samples from 81 shrimp ponds in the Mekong delta with outbreak or non-outbreak status. The variable number tandem repeat (VNTR) loci of WSSV were used as molecular markers for the characterization of single- and mixed-genotype infections. The overall prevalence of mixed-genotype WSSV infections was 25.7 %. Non-outbreak ponds had a significantly higher frequency of mixed-genotype infections than outbreak ponds for all VNTR loci, both at the individual shrimp as well as at the pond level. The genetic composition of WSSV populations appears to correlate with the health status of shrimp culture in ponds. The causal relationship between genotypic diversity and disease outbreaks can now be experimentally approached.

The prevalence of methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in pigs at abattoirs is higher than in pigs sampled on farms. This study investigated whether MRSA negative pigs can become MRSA positive during transportation from the farm to the abattoir after exposure to other pigs and environmental sources of MRSA. Nasal swabs were collected from four batches of pigs during loading at the farm, on arrival at the abattoir and after stunning. Environmental wipes were taken from lorries after transporting pigs and from lairages after holding pigs. All pigs (n = 117) tested MRSA negative before transportation. On arrival at the abattoir, 12/117 (10.3%) pigs in two batches tested MRSA positive. In lorries that tested positive after transportation, the prevalence of MRSA positive pigs was 21.1%, whereas no MRSA was detected in pigs that had been transported in lorries that tested negative after transportation. At stunning, all batches and 70/117 (59.8%) pigs tested MRSA positive. Pigs can become MRSA positive in the short period of time during transportation from the farm to stunning at the abattoir.

Experimental evidence suggests that white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) can be transmitted horizontally through water, via carrier organisms and/or by cannibalism of infected shrimp, but also vertically through infected broodstock. However the mode(s) of WSSV transmission in shrimp farming systems and the epidemiological consequences are not well understood. In this study, molecular markers have been used to analyse the spread of WSSV within and between farms in Viet Nam for two different farming systems: improved-extensive and semi-intensive. Samples were periodically obtained from twenty improved-extensive shrimp ponds and twenty-three semi-intensive shrimp ponds applying different sampling schemes. PCR-genotyping was employed using three WSSV molecular marker loci: the variable tandem repeat regions (VNTR) in ORF75, ORF94 and ORF125 (GenBank AF369029 ). An analysis on the combined results of all three VNTR marker loci made it possible to follow transmission pathways of WSSV in the respective shrimp farming systems. The transmission of WSSV infection on improved extensive shrimp farms appeared mainly due to the recycling of WSSV over time in the same pond, whereas in semi-intensive shrimp farms transmission of WSSV was mainly from neighbouring ponds. These findings provide important information for field applications by suggesting pathway-specific control strategies.

Sources for human hepatitis E virus (HEV) infections of genotype 3 are largely unknown. Pigs are potential animal reservoirs for HEV. Intervention at pig farms may be desired when pigs are confirmed as a source for human infections, requiring knowledge about transmission routes. These routes are currently understudied. The current study aims to quantify the likelihood of pig feces in causing new HEV infections in pigs due to oral ingestion. We estimated the daily infection risk for pigs by modeling the fate of HEV in the fecal-oral (F-O) pathway. Using parameter values deemed most plausible by the authors based on current knowledge the daily risk of infection was 0.85 (95% interval: 0.03-1). The associated expected number of new infections per day was ∼4 (2.5% limit 0.1, the 97% limit tending to infinity) compared to 0.7 observed in a transmission experiment with pigs, and the likelihood of feces causing the transmission approached 1. In alternative scenarios, F-O transmission of HEV was also very likely to cause new infections. By reducing the total value of all explanatory variables by 2 orders of magnitude, the expected numbers of newly infected pigs approached the observed number. The likelihood of F-O transmission decreased by decreasing parameter values, allowing for at most 94% of infections being caused by additional transmission routes. Nevertheless, in all scenarios F-O transmission was estimated to contribute to HEV transmission. Thus, despite the difficulty in infecting pigs with HEV via oral inoculation, the F-O route is likely to cause HEV transmission among pigs.

In the past decades, mathematical models have become more and more accepted as a tool to develop surveillance programs and to evaluate the efficacy of intervention measures for the control of infectious diseases such as highly pathogenic avian influenza. Predictive models are used to simulate the effect of various control measures on the course of an epidemic; analytical models are used to analyze data from outbreaks or from experiments. A key parameter in both types of models is the reproductive ratio, which indicates whether virus can be transmitted in the population, resulting in an epidemic, or not. Parameters obtained from real data using the analytical models can subsequently be used in predictive models to evaluate control strategies or surveillance programs. Examples of the use of these models are described here.

To optimize control of an avian influenza outbreak knowledge of within-flock transmission is needed. This study used field data to estimate the transmission rate parameter (beta) and the influence of risk factors on within-flock transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H7N7 virus in the 2003 epidemic in The Netherlands. The estimation is based on back-calculation of daily mortality data to fit a susceptible-infectious-dead format, and these data were analysed with a generalized linear model. This back-calculation method took into account the uncertainty of the length of the latent period, the survival of an infection by some birds and the influence of farm characteristics. After analysing the fit of the different databases created by back-calculation, it could be concluded that an absence of the latency period provided the best fit. The transmission rate parameter (beta) from these field data was estimated at 4.50 per infectious chicken per day (95% CI: 2.68-7.57), which was lower than what was reported from experimental data. In contrast to general belief, none of the studied risk factors (housing system, flock size, species, age of the birds in weeks and date of depopulation) had significant influence on the estimated beta.

Genetic selection of livestock against infectious diseases can complement existing interventions to control infectious diseases. Most genetic approaches that aim at reducing disease prevalence assume that individual disease status (infected/not-infected) is solely a function of its susceptibility to a particular pathogen. However, individual infectivity also affects the risk and prevalence of an infection in a population. Variation in susceptibility and infectivity between hosts affects transmission of an infection in the population, which is usually measured by the value of the basic reproduction ratio R 0 . R 0 is an important epidemiological parameter that determines the risk and prevalence of infectious diseases. An individual’s breeding value for R 0 is a function of its genes that influence both susceptibility and infectivity. Thus, to estimate the effects of genes on R 0 , we need to estimate the effects of genes on individual susceptibility and infectivity. To that end, we developed a generalized linear model (GLM) to estimate relative effects of genes for susceptibility and infectivity. A simulation was performed to investigate bias and precision of the estimates, the effect of R 0 , the size of the effects of genes for susceptibility and infectivity, and relatedness among group mates on bias and precision. We considered two bi-allelic loci that affect, respectively, the individuals’ susceptibility only and individuals’ infectivity only. A GLM with complementary log–log link function can be used to estimate the relative effects of genes on the individual’s susceptibility and infectivity. The model was developed from an equation that describes the probability of an individual to become infected as a function of its own susceptibility genotype and infectivity genotypes of all its infected group mates. Results show that bias is smaller when R 0 ranges approximately from 1.8 to 3.1 and relatedness among group mates is higher. With larger effects, both absolute and relative standard deviations become clearly smaller, but the relative bias remains the same. We developed a GLM to estimate the relative effect of genes that affect individual susceptibility and infectivity. This model can be used in genome-wide association studies that aim at identifying genes that influence the prevalence of infectious diseases.

International audience; The quantitative role of sheep in the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is not well known. To estimate the role of sheep in the transmission of FMDV, a direct contact transmission experiment with 10 groups of animals each consisting of 2 infected lambs and 1 contact calf was performed. Secretions and excretions (oral swabs, blood, urine, faeces and probang samples) from all animals were tested for the presence of FMDV by virus isolation (VI) and/or RT-PCR. Serum was tested for the presence of antibodies against FMDV. To estimate FMDV transmission, the VI, RT-PCR and serology results were used. The partial reproduction ratio R0p i.e. the average number of new infections caused by one infected sheep introduced into a population of susceptible cattle, was estimated using either data of the whole infection chain of the experimental epidemics (the transient state method) or the final sizes of the experimental epidemics (the final size method). Using the transient state method, R0p was estimated as 1.0 (95% CI 0.2 - 6.0) using virus isolation results and 1.4 (95% CI 0.3 - 8.0) using RT-PCR results. Using the final size method, R0p was estimated as 0.9 (95% CI 0.2 - 3.0). Finally, R0p was compared to the R0’s obtained in previous transmission studies with sheep or cattle only. This comparison showed that the infectivity of sheep is lower than that of cattle and that sheep and cattle are similarly susceptible to FMD. These results indicate that in a mixed population of sheep and cattle, sheep play a more limited role in the transmission of FMDV than cattle.

The herd sensitivity (HSe) and herd specificity (Hsp) of clinical diagnosis of an infection with classical swine fever (CSF) virus during veterinary inspection of breeding sows in a herd was evaluated. Data gathered from visits to herds during the CSF outbreak in 1997¿1998 in The Netherlands were used for the analysis. Herds were visited one or more times by the same or by different veterinarians. On the basis of the veterinarians¿ reports, each visit was coded as 0 (negative clinical diagnosis) or 1 (positive clinical diagnosis). The HSe for clinical diagnosis of CSF was modelled as a function of days elapsed since introduction of the virus. The moment of introduction of the CSF virus in the CSF-positive herds was unknown, so for each herd, a probability distribution for the unknown number of days since introduction was derived from serum samples collected at depopulation. The information from the reports of the veterinarians and from the test results of the serum samples at depopulation was combined in a Bayesian analysis. Data from CSF-negative herds were analysed to estimate HSp of clinical diagnosis of CSF. The HSe of clinical diagnosis was 0.5 at 37 days after virus introduction (95% CI: 31, 45) and reached 0.9 at 47 days after virus introduction (95% CI: 41, 54). The estimated herd specificity was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.79). Dependence of HSe and HSp on characteristics of the veterinarians and the herds also was studied. Specialisation of the veterinarian significantly, although not markedly, affected the HSe.

Veterinary vaccines are usually tested for the absence of contaminants. However, the quality control does not always imply that vaccines are not contaminated as, for example, illustrated by the bovine herpes virus 1 (BHV1) vaccine used in The Netherlands in 1999 that contained a small amount of bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV1). Thousands of cows were vaccinated with BHV1 vaccine batches, and the question arose as to whether these small amounts of BVDV1, most likely not detected with in vitro tests, could have infected cattle. More in general, the question was whether the outcome of the in vitro tests, i.e. the in vitro infectivity, was indicative for the infectivity for cattle, i.e. the in vivo infectivity. We therefore carried out in vitro experiments to determine the sensitivity of a BVDV1 isolation assay. In addition, we performed two animal experiments, in which we estimated the lowest dose needed to infect calves with BVDV L We extrapolated the experimental in vitro and in vivo results from a tissue culture infectious dose (TCID50) to a cattle infectious dose (CID50). We observed a partial response in the calves inoculated with this dose: four out of six calves turned out to be infected. In the tissue culture test, all 20 samples tested negative. The response in vivo, however, was not significantly higher than the in vitro response, which implies that no difference in susceptibility was observed between the animal test and the tissue culture test. Based on the results in our experiments, some cattle may have been infected with BVDV1 after the application of the contaminated BHV1 vaccine during the vaccination campaign. The question remains that how many cattle received contaminated vaccine, and became infected with BVDV1. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Objective: To determine the within-host population dynamics of Campylobacter jejuni and Escherichia coli in chickens during and after treatment with fluoroquinolones. Materials and methods: Total and resistant faecal counts were determined from cloacal swabs during and after treatment with enrofloxacin. Chickens were housed individually to avoid confounding as a result of interaction between animals, and to be able to focus solely on the within-host dynamics. To determine the molecular basis of resistance, a number of isolates were checked for mutations in gyrA. Results: Treatment with enrofloxacin at doses routinely prescribed (50 ppm) rapidly reduced the faecal counts of E. coli below the detection limit and did not induce resistance. In C. jejuni, on the other hand, treatment with enrofloxacin quickly selected for high frequencies of fluoroquinolone-resistant strains. In all phenotypically resistant isolates, resistance was traced to mutations in the gyrA gene. Conclusions: (1) A licensed dosage (50 ppm) of enrofloxacin in drinking water of chickens is effective (i.e. markedly reduced faecal counts) and is safe on a short time scale in E. coli (i.e. did not rapidly select for resistance), but is neither safe nor effective in C. jejuni. (2) The rapid emergence of resistance to quinolones in C. jejuni does not necessarily result from horizontal transmission of resistant strains among chickens, but could solely be the result of de novo selection of resistance in individual chickens.

[b]Introduction[/b]. The airborne transmission of infectious diseases in livestock production is increasingly receiving research attention. Reliable techniques of air sampling are crucial to underpin the findings of such studies. This study evaluated the physical and biological efficiencies and detection limits of four samplers (Andersen 6-stage impactor, all-glass impinger “AGI-30”, OMNI-3000 and MD8 with gelatin filter) for collecting aerosols of infectious bursal disease virus (IBDV). [b]Materials and Method[/b]. IBDV aerosols mixed with a physical tracer (uranine) were generated in an isolator, and then collected by the bioaerosol samplers. Samplers’ physical and biological efficiencies were derived based on the tracer concentration and the virus/tracer ratio, respectively. Detection limits for the samplers were estimated with the obtained efficiency data. [b]Results.[/b] Physical efficiencies of the AGI-30 (96%) and the MD8 (100%) were significantly higher than that of the OMNI-3000 (60%). Biological efficiency of the OMNI-3000 (23%) was significantly lower than 100% (P < 0.01), indicating inactivation of airborne virus during sampling. The AGI-30, the Andersen impactor and the MD8 did not significantly inactivate virus during sampling. The 2-min detection limits of the samplers on airborne IBDV were 4.1 log[sub]10[/sub] 50% egg infective dose (EID[sub]50[/sub]) m [sup]-3[/sup] for the Andersen impactor, 3.3 log[sub]10[/sub] EID50 m [sup]-3[/sup] for the AGI-30, 2.5 log[sub]10[/sub] EID50 m [sup]-3[/sup] for the OMNI-3000, and 2.9 log[sub]10[/sub] EID[sub]50[/sub] m [sup]-3[/sup] for the MD8. The mean half-life of IBDV aerosolized at 20 °C and 70% was 11.9 min. Conclusion. Efficiencies of different samplers vary. Despite its relatively low sampling efficiency, the OMNI-3000 is suitable for use in environments with low viral concentrations because its high flow rate gives a low detection limit. With the 4 samplers investigated, negative air samples cannot guarantee virus-free aerial environments, which means that transmission of infectious agents between farms may still occur even when no virus has been detected.

A long-term research programme has been underway in Ireland to evaluate the usefulness of badger vaccination as part of the national bTB (bovine tuberculosis) control strategy. This culminated in a field trial which commenced in county Kilkenny in 2009 to determine the effects of badger vaccination on Mycobacterium bovis transmission in badgers under field conditions. In the present study, we sought to optimise the characteristics of a multiplex chemiluminescent assay for detection of M. bovis infection in live badgers. Our goal was to maximise specificity, and therefore statistical power, during evaluation of the badger vaccine trial data. In addition, we also aimed to explore the effects of vaccination on test characteristics. For the test optimisation, we ran a stepwise logistic regression with analytical weights on the converted Relative Light Units (RLU) obtained from testing blood samples from 215 badgers captured as part of culling operations by the national Department of Agriculture, Food and the Marine (DAFM). The optimised test was applied to two other datasets obtained from two captive badger studies (Study 1 and Study 2), and the sensitivity and specificity of the test was attained separately for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. During optimisation, test sensitivity was maximised (30.77%), while retaining specificity at 99.99%. When the optimised test was then applied to the captive badger studies data, we observed that test characteristics did not vary greatly between vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. However, a different time lag between infection and a positive test result was observed in vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers. We propose that the optimized multiplex immunoassay be used to analyse the vaccine trial data. In relation to the difference in the time lag observed for vaccinated and non-vaccinated badgers, we also present a strategy to enable the test to be used during trial evaluation.

Large amounts of airborne microorganisms are emitted from livestock production. These emitted microorganisms may associate with dust, and are suspected to pose a risk of airborne infection to humans in vicinity and to animals on other farms. However, the extent to which airborne transmission may play a role in the epidemic, and how dust acts as a carrier of microorganisms in the transmission processes is unknown. This paper presents the current knowledge of the entire process of airborne transmission of microorganisms - from suspension, transportation until deposition and infection - and their relation to dust. The sampling and the mitigation techniques of airborne microorganisms and dust in livestock production systems are introduced as well.

Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves assess the quality of tests over the entire range of test signals. We compared the ability of an ELISA to detect antibodies to Aujeszky's disease (pseudorabies) virus gE in colostrum (test A) and in a single droplet of whole blood (test B) with the results obtained in serum (gold standard) in the target population by constructing and analyzing such curves. The area under the ROC curve, which is a quantitative measure of test performance, proved to be significantly (p < 0.01) smaller in test A than in test B or the gold standard. No significant differences in the area under the ROC curve were observed between test B and the gold standard.