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Oak-pine forests in the U.S. Central Hardwood Forests are recovering from exploitative harvesting and clearing in the early twentieth century and are undergoing rapid succession changes. Unprecedented red oak borer (ROB, Enaphalodes rufulus) outbreaks in 1999–2003 are associated with the largest oak mortality event reported in the Central Hardwood Region since the arrival of Europeans. Predicting and evaluating the effects of ROB disturbance on forest composition has practical value for forest management plans that aims to minimize ecological and economic loss from ROB disturbances. However, such prediction at a regional scale is rare due to the limited approaches that could explicitly couple insect outbreak mechanisms with forest dynamics under changing climate. We used a newly developed climate-sensitive Biotic Disturbance Agent module in the LANDIS PRO framework to simulate species composition changes due to succession, climate change, and ROB disturbances in 13.5 million ha forests in the U.S. Central Hardwood Region from 2000 to 2300. Our simulation suggested that succession is more important than climate effects and ROB disturbance in predicting regional species composition changes. ROB disturbance interacting with climate change accelerated the decline of primary host species (e.g., Quercus rubra) and then substantially changed forest succession trajectories under warming climates. Our modeling approach improved the simulation realism of ROB disturbance and more realistically projected how tree species will respond to ROB disturbance under changing climate, informing decision-making in silvicultural prescriptions and long-term management plans.

Climate warming directly affects insect disturbance regimes by altering temperature dependent population development. Indirect effects of climate change on insect disturbance may mediate or accelerate direct effects via vegetation feedback (e.g., host-tree demographic dynamics). However, such indirect effects have rarely been incorporated in predicting insect disturbance regimes. We included both direct and indirect effects in a forest landscape modeling framework to simulate red oak borer (ROB, Enaphalodes rufulus [Coleoptera: Cerambycidae]) disturbance regimes under a warming climate from 2000 to 2150 in the Central Hardwood Forests, U.S. We quantified effect sizes and relative importance of direct effects and indirect effects of warming climate on the ROB disturbance using a factorial experimental design and two-way ANOVA. Both direct and indirect effects acted positively in the short and medium term (e.g., 0-100 years), while the effect size of indirect effects changed over time from positive (+30.9 kha) to negative (-17.3 kha) and mediated the positive direct effects in the long term (e.g., 100-150 years). Direct effects had greater influence than indirect effects on ROB disturbed areas in the short term (e.g.

Dry-mesic old-growth oak forests are widely distributed remnants across the eastern U.S. and are expected to increase in number and extent as second-growth forests mature. In this study, we synthesize published and unpublished information to better define the species, structure and extent of these forests. Mean site tree density for trees ≥10 cm dbh ranged from 341–620 trees ha−1. In the eastern part of the region, most stand basal areas were >23 m2 ha−1, compared to ≤23 m2 ha−1 in the westernmost stands. Overall, woody species diversity was relatively low compared to old-growth oak forests on moister sites, with tree species per forest ranging from 5–18. The most common species among the stands were white oak (Quercus alba), northern red oak (Quercus rubra), and black oak (Quercus velutina). Shrub and vine species per forest ranged from 1–10, with common species or genera including Virginia creeper (Parthenocissus quinquefolia), poison ivy (Toxicodendron radicans), Vaccinium spp., and grapevines (Vitis spp.). Within the southern Appalachian Mountains, rosebay rhododendron (Rhododendron maximum) and mountain laurel (Kalmia latifolia L.) were common. Herbaceous species per stand ranged from 4–51, with the highest richness occurring in a southern Appalachian oak-hickory forest. The maximum within-stand age of the large trees ranged from 170 to over 365 years. The mean density of standing dead trees ≥10 cm dbh ranged from 31–78 ha−1 and the volume of coarse woody debris ≥10 cm in diameter averaged 52 m3 ha−1. We more fully describe the characteristics of these forests and fill gaps in the collective knowledge of this increasingly important forest type. However, over the past 20 years, there has been scant research on these forests, and older research studies have used a variety of research plots and methods. A uniform approach to surveying these sites is needed to gain a better understanding of these forests before we are faced with caring for an increase in old-growth forest areas.

Aim: Population dynamics and disturbances have often been simplified or ignored when predicting regional‐scale tree species distributions in response to climate change in current climate‐distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models). We determined the relative importance of population dynamics, tree harvest, climate change, and their interaction in affecting tree species distribution changes. Location: Central Hardwood Forest Region of the United States. Major taxa studied: Tree species. Methods: We used a forest dynamic model, LANDIS PRO that accounted for population dynamics, tree harvest, and climate change to predict tree species’ distributions at 270 m resolution from 2000 to 2300. We quantified the relative importance of these factors using a repeated measures analysis of variance. We further investigated the effects of each factor on changes in species distributions by summarizing extinction and colonization rates. Results: On average, population dynamics was the most important factor affecting tree species distribution changes. Tree harvest was more important than climate change by 2100 whereas climate change was more important than harvest by 2300. By end of the 21st century, most tree species expanded their distributions irrespective of any climate or harvest scenario. By 2300, most northern, some southern, and most widely distributed species contracted their distributions while most southern species, some widely distributed species, and few northern species expanded their distributions under warmer climates with tree harvest. Harvest accelerated or ameliorated the contractions and expansions for species that were negatively or positively affected by climate change. Main conclusions: Our results suggest that population dynamics and tree harvest can be more important than climate change and thus should be explicitly included when predicting future tree species’ distributions. Understanding the underlying mechanisms that drive tree species distributions will enable better predictions of tree species distributions under climate change.

In the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, prescribed fire has been increasingly used as a management tool to restore declining native ecosystems, but it also increases the threat posed by biological invasion, since the treated sites are more susceptible to invasive species such as Chinese tallow (Triadica sebifera). We chose Mississippi Sandhill Crane National Wildlife Refuge (MSCNWR), a fire-managed landscape, to examine the potential effect of prescribed fire and landscape/community features on tallow invasion and spread. We took a complete survey of roadways and fire lines for tallow and measured a systematic sample of 144 10 &times, 3 m2 rectangular plots along two selected roadways and a simple random sample of 56 0.04-ha circular plots across burn units. We used pair correlation function for marked point pattern data, zero-inflated negative binomial models for count data, as well as multivariate Hotelling&rsquo, s T2 test, to analyze the effect of prescribed fire and landscape/community characteristics on tallow invasion and spread along habitat edges and into interiors. Our results show that tallow spread along habitat edges and into interiors in a spatially clustered pattern. Tallow invasion risk decreases with the distance to seed trees and shrub coverage, and with the time since last fire if seed trees are outside the effective seed dispersal range (~300 m), but increases with the time since last fire if seed trees are within the effective seed dispersal range. Tallow seedling (&le, 2 years old) densities increase with the time since last fire and with increasing overstory tree basal area, but decrease with the distance to seed trees. Tallow-invaded interior plots have significantly shorter mean fire return intervals (2.7 years), lower shrub coverage (8.6%), and are closer to edges (20.3 m) than non-invaded plots (4.3 years, 18.4%, 167.6 m, respectively).

In the southeastern United States, drought can pose a significant threat to forests by reducing the amount of available water, thereby stressing trees. Destructive changes in crown conditions provide the first visible indication of a problem in a forested area, making it a useful indicator for problems within an ecosystem. Forest Health and Monitoring (FHM) and Palmer's Drought Severity Index (PDSI) data from 11 states in the southeastern United States were obtained in an effort to determine the role that drought, forest type, and ecoregion have in indicating differences in crown dieback. Analyses were conducted by species groups using classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. The greatest amount of total relative crown dieback occurred in red oak (18%), followed by other hardwoods (14%), and white oak (11%). Relative crown dieback varied by forest type and ecoregion with a relationship to drought in both red oak and white oak. This information will be useful for focusing future research and modeling efforts to predict forest health conditions affected by changing climate variables.

Aims Using a network of permanent plots, we determined how multiple old-growth forests changed over an 18–19-year period at a statewide scale. This examination of change allowed us to assess how the compositional and structural stability of each forest varied with site characteristics (topography, physiography and productivity) and stochastic disturbance. Methods In 2011, we resampled 150 plots distributed across five oldgrowth hardwood forests in Indiana, USA that were originally sampled in 1992–1993. Within each plot, we relocated and remeasured the diameter at breast height (dbh) of all trees (≥10.0 cm) present during the 1992–1993 sample, w hich allowed us to track their individual fates through time for growth and mortality calculations. Trees that grew to ≥10.0 cm dbh since plot establishment were designated as ingrowth. The dbh and species of all saplings (stems ≥2.0 cm but

Oak regeneration problems have been noted in the Missouri Ozarks and elsewhere in the eastern United States. Alteration of disturbance regimes, competition from nonoak species, and high overstory stocking are believed to be major barriers that impede oak regeneration. We studied regeneration in upland oak forests that were harvested by both even-aged (clearcutting) and uneven-aged (single-tree selection and group selection) regeneration methods, focusing on differences in oak regeneration among stands that received alternative harvest treatments. Ten years after treatments, the density of oak regeneration generally increased with increased removal of overstory trees, but only the clearcutting treatment resulted in a statistically significant increase in the density of oak seedlings and saplings over that in the no harvest treatment (the control). There were no differences among treatments in the relative proportions of oak seedlings and saplings as a whole or by size classes among the treatments. Successful oak regeneration after removal of overstory trees highly depends on the number and size of advance oak reproduction and is closely related to site conditions such as aspect and bedrock geology. Both site factors and advance oak reproduction must be considered when a regeneration method to promote oak is chosen. Compared with the uneven-aged methods (single-tree selection and group selection), clearcutting favored the red oak species over the white oak species.

Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing predictions stratified by extraneous drivers with aggregated values in inventory plots. Long-term predictions are evaluated using empirical data and knowledge. We demonstrate the applicability of the framework using LANDIS PRO FLM. We showed how inventory data were used to initialize the landscape and calibrate model parameters. Evaluation of the short-term LANDIS PRO predictions based on multiple metrics showed good overall performance at site and landscape scales. The predicted long-term stand development patterns were consistent with the established theories of stand dynamics. The predicted long-term forest composition and successional trajectories conformed well to empirical old-growth studies in the region. We present a framework for evaluating the short- and long-term forest landscape model predictions at site and landscape scales.Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing cell-level predictions with inventory plot data.Landscape-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing predictions stratified by extraneous drivers with aggregated values in inventory plots.We successfully evaluated the LANDIS PRO forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge and showed reasonable performances at both scales.

Demographic processes (fecundity, dispersal, colonization, growth, and mortality) and their interactions with environmental changes are not well represented in current climate-distribution models (e.g., niche and biophysical process models) and constitute a large uncertainty in projections of future tree species distribution shifts. We investigate how species biological traits and environmental heterogeneity affect species distribution shifts. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest dynamic model LANDIS PRO, which incorporates site-scale tree species demography and competition, landscape-scale dispersal and disturbances, and regional-scale abiotic controls, to simulate the distribution shifts of four representative tree species with distinct biological traits in the central hardwood forest region of United States. Our results suggested that biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age) were important for determining tree species distribution shifts. Environmental heterogeneity, on average, reduced shift rates by 8% compared to perfect environmental conditions. The average distribution shift rates ranged from 24 to 200myear-1 under climate change scenarios, implying that many tree species may not able to keep up with climate change because of limited dispersal capacity, long generation time, and environmental heterogeneity. We suggest that climate-distribution models should include species demographic processes (e.g., fecundity, dispersal, colonization), biological traits (e.g., dispersal capacity, maturation age), and environmental heterogeneity (e.g., habitat fragmentation) to improve future predictions of species distribution shifts in response to changing climates.

LANDIS PRO predicts forest composition and structure changes incorporating species-, stand-, and landscape-scales processes at regional scales. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes contain density- and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscapescale processes include seed dispersal and disturbances. LANDIS PRO is designed to be compatible with forest inventory data, thus extensive inventory data can be directly utilized to initialize and calibrate model parameters before predicting future forest changes. LANDIS PRO allows for exploring the effects of disturbances, management, climate change, and modeling the spread of invasive species. We demonstrate that LANDIS PRO successfully predicts forest successional trajectories and stand development patterns in the Central Hardwood Forest region in U.S.

Hardwood species play an integral role in forested ecosystems in the southeastern United States. This necessitates an assessment of mortality patterns in these species as well as factors associated with them. This study assessed mortality patterns for hardwood species utilizing Forest Inventory Analysis (FIA) data from the United States Forest Service for two consecutive inventory cycles using kernels smoothing and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) modeling. The first inventory cycle (2000–2004) reveals a patterns and associated factors that can be associated with decline events that have recurred throughout the region while the second inventory cycle (2005–2009) exhibits a different pattern in mortality than cycle one. Mortality patterns and their associated factors should be monitored in the hope that methods can be developed to mitigate extreme impacts to these vitally important species. Abstract: Las especies de madera dura juegan un papel fundamental en los ecosistemas forestales en el sureste de los Estados Unidos. Esto requiere una evaluacion de las tendencias de la mortalidad en estas especies, asi como los factores asociados a estas. Este estudio evaluo las tendencias de mortalidad para las especies de madera dura utilizando analisis de inventario de bosque ( Forest Inventory Analysis ), datos del Servicio Forestal de los Estados Unidos durante dos ciclos consecutivos de inventario utilizando modelos kernels smoothing y Classification and Regression Tree (CART). El primer ciclo de inventario (2000–2004) revela una tendencia y factores asociados que pueden estar asociados con la disminucion de eventos que se han repetido en toda la region, mientras que el segundo ciclo de inventario (2005–2009) exhibe una tendencia diferente en la mortalidad del ciclo uno. Estas diferencias podrian deberse a fenomenos meteorologicos extremos (como huracanes) que afectaron la region durante el segundo ciclo de inventario. Las tendencias de mortalidad y sus factores asociados deben ser monitoreadas con la esperanza de poder desarrollar metodos para mitigar los impactos extremos de estas especies de vital importancia.

Temperate forests regrowing from historical land use and land cover change in the eastern US serve as carbon (C) sinks. Environmental drivers have been significantly altered (e.g. rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, warmer temperature, and elevated nitrogen (N) deposition) and will have a wide range of impacts on future forest C sinks. However, the interactions among these environmental drivers are unclear and their effects are subject to uncertainty. We assessed the combined and interactive effects of rising CO2 concentration, climate change (temperature, precipitation), and N deposition on forest aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and their relative contribution to ANPP changes of a temperate forest in the eastern US. We used a process-based ecosystem model PnET-day to simulate coupled cycles of C, water, and N of forest ecosystems. We found that (1) climate change exerted negative effects on ANPP (−0.250 kg C m−2 yr−1) whereas rising CO2 and N deposition enhanced ANPP (+0.253, +0.014 kg C m−2 yr−1); (2) climate change interacted with rising CO2 and N deposition to decrease ANPP (−0.032, −0.018 kg C m−2 yr−1); rising CO2 and N deposition acted in synergy to increase ANPP (+0.014 kg C m−2 yr−1); (3) changes in ANPP were mainly attributed to rising CO2 and climate change whereas N deposition effects and any two- or three-factor interactive effects were relatively small. Our results suggest that the total negative effect sizes will not be offset by the total positive effect sizes, thus resulting in reductions in forest ANPP over the 21st century.

Oak decline is a widely distributed disease that results from an interacting set of factors in the Central Hardwood Region. Episodes of decline have been reported since before the turn of the twentieth century and from every state in the region. It is a stress-mediated disease that results from the interactions of physiologically mature trees, abiotic and biotic stressors that alter carbohydrate physiology, and opportunistic fungal pathogens and inner bark-feeding insects. Symptoms include reduced radial growth and slow, progressive crown dieback. Decline occurs over several years or decades, ending in death of vulnerable trees. Patterns of oak decline vary from a few trees in stands with diverse species composition and age structure, to areas covering several thousand ha in landscapes with more uniform composition of susceptible, physiologically mature red oak group species. Prolonged periods of drought that occur in combination with repeated spring defoliations by leaf-feeding insects exacerbate decline. Past disturbances have shaped current forest species composition and age structure, favoring physiologically mature stands with a large oak component, and are thus inextricably linked to oak decline vulnerability. Noteworthy examples are the functional extirpation of the American chestnut by the non-indigenous chestnut blight pathogen, combined with changing disturbance patterns, including fire suppression and reduced harvesting, during the early twentieth century. Data from extensive regional surveys have been used to develop models predicting the probability and impacts of oak decline events as part of the Forest Vegetation Simulator.

At the forest landscape/region level, based on annual Forest Inventory and Analysis plot data from 1999 to 2010, oak decline and mortality trends for major oak species (groups) were examined in the Ozark Highlands of Arkansas and Missouri. Oak decline has elevated cumulative mortality of red oak species to between 11 and 15 percent in terms of relative density and basal area of standing dead oak trees, respectively. These values are three to five times higher than for white oak group and non-oak species. Oak decline and associated escalating mortality have occurred primarily in red oak species while the white oak group has maintained a relatively stable mortality rate that is comparable to non-oak species. Cross-correlation analyses indicate that mortality in the red oak group was significantly correlated with the growing season Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) and usually lagged two to three years following single drought events. Moreover, based on the past 17 years PDSI data, it appears that the cumulative impacts of drought may last up to 10 years. The Ozark Highlands experienced a severe drought extending from 1998 to 2000 and another milder drought from 2005 to 2006. These drought events triggered the escalation of mortality starting around year 2000. Spatially, high red oak mortality sites (hot spots with proportional basal area mortality > 0.12) initially occurred in the central Ozarks and spread gradually over most of the Ozark Highlands as regional droughts continued. In contrast, sites with elevated white oak and non-oak mortality occurred sporadically, mainly in the southern portion (Arkansas) of the Ozark Highlands. During the most recent inventory period (2006–2010), over 60%, 7% and 5% of red oak, white oak and non-oak groups, respectively, had relative mortality rates of > 12%.

Black oak (Quercus velutina Lam.) and scarlet oak (Quercus coccinea Muenchh.)—two major components (44% of total stand basal area) of upland oak forests—are suffering severe decline and mortality in the Ozark Highlands, Missouri. However, factors influencing their survival (mortality) are not well understood. In this study we quantified how stand and tree-level predisposing factors are associated with survival of black and scarlet oaks. Sixteen-year monitoring data from the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP) indicated that overall annual mortality of black and scarlet oaks averaged 2.2 and 1.7%, respectively, three to five times higher than expected (around 0.5%) for white oak, a common associate. For the first 8 years of the study (1990‐1998), survival rates of black and scarlet oaks were similar. Thereafter, the survival rate of black oak declined relative to scarlet oak. Using the classification and regression tree (CART) method we classified black oak and scarlet oak trees into seven and nine risk groups, respectively, that differed significantly in rates of tree mortality. Groups were distinguished based on tree diameter, crown class, and size relative to competitors. An oak decline and mortality hazard index was thus developed as the weighted means of risk group mortality, which can help managers prescribe species-specific silvicultural treatments to help mitigate oak decline and associated mortality.

Tree biology, environmental site conditions, relative monetary costs, management options, and the competitive struggle between planted trees and other vegetation were integrated when underplanting northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) seedlings in Boston Mountain shelterwoods. This approach provides insight into the collective costs (biological, environmental, and monetary) associated with artificial regeneration. This analysis is partly based on previous research that determined the competitive capacity of more than 4,000 seedlings planted under shelterwood overstories. Using these probabilities in our simple accounting of cost, the cost of obtaining one competitively successful tree was calculated under various combinations of environmental variables, silvicultural treatments and seedling sizes. A successful tree was defined as one predicted to survive and attain dominance or codominance 11 years after planting. The cost of trees that were not likely to survive or reach a dominant or codominant position was added to the cost of obtaining a successful tree. In this way, the cost of the competitive struggle between planted trees and other vegetation is integrated into the monetary cost per successful tree. Results provide a practical tool for evaluating various planting options in relation to both associated costs and the expected biological success of alternative planting prescriptions.

One of the most comprehensive attempts at biodiversity conservation in Russia and the former Soviet Union has been the establishment of an extensive network of protected natural areas. Among all types of protected areas in Russia, zapovedniks (strictly protected scientific preserves) have been the most effective in protecting biodiversity at the ecosystem scale. Russia has 101 zapovedniks with a total area of 34.3 million ha, representing 2% of Russian territory. The mission of zapovedniks is to protect native biodiversity and ecosystem processes as well as to facilitate the study of natural ecosystem processes and functions. In this manuscript, we provide a brief history of Russian ecosystem preservation and outline the goals and administrative organization of the Russian zapovednik system as it currently functions, as well as the characteristics, problems, and values of the system.

Research on oak (Quercus L.) regeneration has generally consisted of small- scale studies of treatments designed to favor oak, including consideration of site quality and topographic effects on oak regeneration. However, these experiments have not con- sistently factored in broader-scale ecological differences found in the eastern United States. Oak regeneration experiments should be replicated at appropriate ecological scales to address the similarities and differences in regeneration following prescribed silvicultural treatments among ecological units. Patterns in oak regeneration can be better understood in an ecological context by considering how oak species interact in the differing physical environments and are able to maintain dominance in changing complexes of competing vegetation among the selected eco-units. Our understanding of oak regeneration response to specific silvicultural practices and our ability to model regeneration is improved when we use replication, blocking, or factorial deployment of relatively small-scale (0.5-1.0 ha) treatment plots within an ecological classification system. We present an example of this approach to understanding oak regeneration dynamics in a synthesis of research to regenerate northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) by underplanting shelterwoods in Arkansas, Missouri and Indiana. We summarize important considerations to guide the design of future research in oak regeneration.

Oak decline and related mortality have periodically plagued upland oak-hickory forests, particularly oak species in the red oak group, across the Ozark Highlands of Missouri, Arkansas and Oklahoma since the late 1970s. Advanced tree age and periodic drought, as well as Armillaria root fungi and oak borer attack are believed to contribute to oak decline and mortality. Declining trees first show foliage wilt and browning, followed by progressive branch dieback in the middle and/or upper crown. Many trees eventually die if severe crown dieback continues. In 2002, more than 4000 living oak trees !Y11 cm dbh in the relatively undisturbed mature oak forests of the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP) were randomly selected and inventoried for tree species, dbh, crown class, crown width, crown dieback condition (healthy: 5-33%, moderate: 33-66%, and severe: >66%) and number of emergence holes created by oak borers on the lower 2.4 m of the tree bole. The same trees were remeasured in 2006 to determine their status (live or dead). In 2002, about 10% of the red oak trees showed moderate or severe crown dieback; this was twice the percentage observed for white oak species. Over 70% of trees in the red oak group had evidence of oak borer damage compared to 35% of trees in the white oak group. There was significant positive correlation between crown dieback and the number of borer emergence holes (p < 0.01). Logistic regression showed oak mortality was mainly related to crown width and dieback, and failed to detect any significant link with the number of oak borer emergence holes. Declining red oak group trees had higher mortality (3 or 4 times) than white oaks. The odds ratios of mortality of slightly, moderately, and severely declining trees versus healthy trees were, respectively, 2.0,6.5, and 29,7 for black oak; 1.8, 3.8, and 8.3 for scarlet oak; and 2.6, 6.5 and 7.1 for white oaks.

A total of 53 fire-scarred Pinus echinata (shortleaf pine) trees were examined to reconstruct a ridgetop fire chronology of an oak-pine forest in the Ozark Mountains of north-central Arkansas. This process yielded 104 fire scars dating to 61 separate fire years. Fire frequency was greatest during the Euro-American Settlement Period (1820–1900), when the median fire interval (MFI) was 1.9 years. Most of the sample trees established during this period. Fire remained prevalent through the Regional Development (1901–1930) and Modern (1931–2003) Periods, when the MFI was 2.1 and 2.6 years, respectively. Palmer Drought Severity Index mean values from 1823–2003 did not differ (p = 0.76) between fire years and non-fire years, suggesting that fires in the study area were predominantly anthropogenic in origin.

Four mature northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.)–white oak (Quercus alba L.) stands in the Boston Mountains of northern Arkansas were studied to describe the vegetation dynamics of forests heavily impacted by oak decline. Northern red oak was the species most susceptible to decline. Across the four stands, 51–75% of red oak density (trees/ha) was dead or dying, as was 40–70% of the red oak basal area. Red oak damage occurred across a range of tree sizes. Healthy red oak had low populations of red oak borer (Enaphalodes rufulus Haldeman), and dead/dying red oak supported large numbers of borers. Impacts on white oak were less severe and generally limited to smaller trees. Decline had changed what once were red oak-dominated stands to more mixed forests of white oak, hickory (Carya spp.), red oak, blackgum (Nyssa sylvatica Marsh.), and red maple (Acer rubrum L.). Understory trees and seedlings were predominantly blackgum, red maple, hickory, black cherry (Prunus serotina Ehrh), flowering dogwood (Cornus florida L.), and sassafras (Sassafras albidum [Nutt.] Nees). However, well-developed red and white oak advance regeneration was present in all stands. It is unclear if the death of overstory trees will favor the regeneration of nonoaks, or whether oak regeneration will successfully recruit within canopy gaps created by this disturbance.

We used dendrochronological methods to construct threefire history chronologies in the interior of the Boston Mountains of Arkansas from 281 dated fire scars identified on 86 shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) remnants and trees. We describe and contrast these interior sites with sites on the southern perimeter of Boston Mountains that were documented in an earlier study and examine human, topographic and climatic spatial and temporal controls on these fire regimes. Fire frequency and human population density at the interior sites were positively correlated during an early period (1680‐1880) of low levels of population, but were negatively correlated during a later period (1881‐2000) as human population levels increased to a much higher level. Wide spread fire occurred more often during drought years in the 1700s with fires likely achieving sizes unprecedented during the last century. The early (before 1810) fire scar record showed that fire intervals were about three times longer (MFI = 35 years) at the interior sites than at the perimeter sites. Early transitional (1810‐1830) settlement by Cherokees at population densities under 0.26 humans/km 2 was highly correlated (r = 0.90) with the number of fires per decade in the interior region of the Boston Mountains. Multiple

In central hardwood forests, mean cavity-tree abundance increases with increasing stand-size class (seedling/sapling, pole, sawtimber, old-growth). However, within a size class, the number of cavity trees is highly variable among 0.1-ha inventory plots. Plots in young stands are most likely to have no cavity trees, but some plots may have more than 50 cavity trees/ha. Plots in old-growth stands often had 25 to 55 cavity trees/ha, but individual plots ranged from 0 to 155/ha. The Weibull probability density function was used to mathematically describe the variation in cavity-tree abundance for plots in stands of differing size (or age) class. A graph of the cumulative probability of cavity-tree abundance is a particularly easy way for managers to estimate the probability that a stand of a given size class will have any specified number of cavity trees per hectare. Results for individual plots or stands can be combined to estimate cavity abundance probabilities for landscapes. Because the results are presented in terms of plot-size classes (or age classes), this approach to cavity tree estimation is compatible with relatively simple forest inventorysystems.North. J. Appl. For. 22(3):162–169.

The disturbance history of six mature white oak (Quercus alba L.) – northern red oak (Quercus rubra L.) – hickory (Carya spp.) stands in the Ozark Mountains of northern Arkansas were reconstructed using tree-ring and fire-scar analysis. Results indicate that all six stands originated in the early 1900s following timber harvesting and (or) fire. These disturbances initiated a pulse of oak-dominated establishment. Most sites were periodically burned during the next several decades. Abrupt radial growth increases in all stands during the 1920s to 1940s reflected additional disturbances. These perturbations likely provided growing space for existing trees, but did not result in increased seedling establishment. Thus, multiple disturbances were important in the origin and development of the stands studied. By the 1930s and 1940s, oak establishment was replaced by shade-tolerant, fire-intolerant non-oak species; few oak recruited into tree size classes after the 1950s. The decrease in oaks and the increase in non-oaks coincided with fire suppression. Few scars were recorded during the past 60–70 years. Prescribed fire may be an important management tool in regenerating oak forests in northern Arkansas.

We used classification and regression tree analysis to determine the primary variables associated with the occurrence of cavity trees and the hierarchical structure among those variables. We applied that information to develop logistic models predicting cavity tree probability as a function of diameter, species group, and decay class. Inventories of cavity abundance in old-growth hardwood forests in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana found that 8–11% of snags had at least one visible cavity (as visually detected from the ground; smallest opening [Formula: see text]2 cm diameter), about twice the percentage for live trees. Five percent of live trees and snags had cavities on mature ([Formula: see text]110 years) second-growth plots on timberland in Missouri. Because snags accounted for typically no more than 10% of standing trees on any of these sites, 80–85% of cavity trees are living trees. Within the subset of mature and old-growth forests, the presence of cavities was strongly related to tree diameter. Classification and regression tree models indicated that 30 cm diameter at breast height (DBH) was a threshold size useful in distinguishing cavity trees from noncavity trees in the old-growth sample. There were two diameter thresholds in the mature second-growth sample: 18 and 44 cm DBH. Cavity tree probability differed by species group and increased with increasing decay class.

Perspective on present day issues associated with wildland fire can be gained by studying the long-term interactions among humans, landscape, and fire. Fire frequency and extent over the last 320 years document these interactions north of the Arkansas River on the southern edge of the Lower Boston Mountains. Dendrochronological methods were used to construct three fire chronologies from 309 dated fire scars that were identified on 45 shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) remnants. Fire frequency increased with human population density from a depopulated period (the late 1600s and early 1700s) to a peak in fire frequency circa 1880. Fire frequency then decreased as human population continued to increase. Fire frequency and human population density were positively correlated during an early period (1680–1880) with low levels of population, but negatively correlated during a later period (1881–1910) with high levels of population. We hypothesized that this difference is due to limits on fire propagation and ignition caused by land use and culture, as well as human population density. Relatively high human population densities (>5 humans/km 2 ) were associated with a peak in the maximum number of fires per decade in this highly dissected, ‘bluff and bench’ landscape compared to less dissected regions of the Ozarks. # 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

We examine the relationship between disturbance regime and plot size for woody biomass estimation in a midwestern old-growth deciduous forest from 1926 to 1992. Analysis was done on the core 19.6 ac of a 50.1 ac forest in which every tree 4 in. dbh and greater has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five windows of time are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986 and 1992. The most efficient plot sizes requiring measurement of the least total area range from 0.02 to 1.6 ac. A small plot size was recommended after grazing disturbance, and a large size was recommended when mortality was high and acceptable error was low. North. J. Appl. For. 15(4):165-168.

We examined the structural and spatial distribution of woody biomass in relationship to disturbance in an Indiana old-growth deciduous forest over a 66-yr period. Analysis was done on the core 7.92 ha of a 20.6-ha forest in which every tree 10 cm dbh and over has been tagged and mapped since 1926. Five years are compared—1926, 1976, 1981, 1986 and 1992. Dry weight of living biomass for the 7.92-ha area for these 5 yr was 154 Mg/ha, 207 Mg/ha, 220 Mg/ha, 216 Mg/ha and 211 Mg/ha, respectively. Biomass of dead trees was 1 Mg ha−1 yr−1 from 1977 through 1981; 4 Mg ha−1 yr−1 from 1982 through 1986; and 3 Mg ha−1 yr−1 from 1987 through 1992. Biomass of trees that died between 1976 and 1992 was greatest for midseral species. Living biomass of dominant early to midseral species is declining while that of late seral species is increasing. In 1926 biomass of trees 10 to 25 cm diam consisted of 14% Quercus spp. and 12% Acer saccharum. By 1992 biomass in this diameter range consisted of 1% Quercus spp. and 4...

Oak decline is a process induced by complex interactions of predisposing factors, inciting factors, and contributing factors operating at tree, stand, and landscape scales. It has greatly altered species composition and stand structure in affected areas. Thinning, clearcutting, and group selection are widely adopted harvest alternatives for reducing forest vulnerability to oak decline by removing susceptible species and declining trees. However, the long-term, landscape-scale effects of these different harvest alternatives are not well studied because of the limited availability of experimental data. In this study, we applied a forest landscape model in combination with field studies to evaluate the effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a Central Hardwood Forest landscape. Results showed that the potential oak decline in high risk sites decreased strongly in the next five decades irrespective of harvest alternatives. This is because oak decline is a natural process and forest succession (e.g., high tree mortality resulting from intense competition) would eventually lead to the decrease in oak decline in this area. However, forest harvesting did play a role in mitigating oak decline and the effectiveness varied among the three harvest alternatives. The group selection and clearcutting alternatives were most effective in mitigating oak decline in the short and medium terms, respectively. The long-term effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline became less discernible as the role of succession increased. The thinning alternative had the highest biomass retention over time, followed by the group selection and clearcutting alternatives. The group selection alternative that balanced treatment effects and retaining biomass was the most viable alternative for managing oak decline. Insights from this study may be useful in developing effective and informed forest harvesting plans for managing oak decline.

Fire helped shape the structure and species composition of hardwood forests of the eastern United States over the past 14,000 years. Periodic fires were common in much of this area prior to European settlement, and fire-resilient species proliferated. Early European settlers commonly adopted Native American techniques of applying fire to the landscape. As the demand for wood products increased, large cutover areas were burned, sometimes leading to catastrophic fires and subsequent early successional habitats. By the early 1900s, these catastrophic fires resulted in political pressure leading to policies that severely restricted the use of fire. Fire suppression continued through the twentieth century due to an emphasis on commodity production and under-appreciation of the ecological role of fire. Without fire, fire-sensitive species were able to successfully outcompete fire-adapted species such as oak and pine while early successional habitats matured into older and more homogeneous forests. In the late twentieth century, land managers began reintroducing fire for ecosystem restoration, wildlife habitat improvement, hazardous fuel reduction, and forest regeneration. Responsible expanded use of ­prescribed fire and other management tools in the region could help mitigate past actions by increasing the amount and distribution of early successional habitats, plant and animal diversity, and landscape heterogeneity.

www.elsevier.com/locate/forecoForest Ecology and Management 239 (2007) 222–223DOI of original article: 10.1016/j.foreco.2006.07.016.* Corresponding author.E-mail address: guyetter@missouri.edu (R.P. Guyette).0378-1127/$ – see front matter # 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2006.11.001

Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, stand-scale processes while making large-scale (i.e., >107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that addresses these needs. LANDIS PRO adds density and size mechanisms of resource competition. This is achieved through incorporating number of trees and DBH by species age cohort within each raster cell. Forest change is determined by the interactions of species-, stand-, and landscape-scale processes. Species-scale processes include tree growth, establishment, and mortality. Stand-scale processes include density and size-related resource competition that regulates self-thinning and seedling establishment. Landscape-scale processes include seed dispersal, as well as natural and anthropogenic disturbances. LANDIS PRO is designed to be straightforwardly comparable with forest inventory data, and thus the extensive FIA data can be directly utilized to initialize and constrain model parameters before predicting future forest change. We initialized a large landscape (∼107 ha) from historical FIA data (1978) and the predicted forest structure and composition following 30 years of simulation were statistically calibrated against a prior time-series of sequential FIA data (1978 to 2008). The results showed that the initialized conditions realistically represented the historical forest composition and structure at 1978, and the constrained model parameters predicted reasonable outcomes at both landscape and land type scales. The subsequent evaluation of model predictions showed that the predicted forest composition and structure were comparable with old-growth oak forests; predicted forest successional trajectories were consistent with the expected successional patterns in oak-dominated forests in the study region; and the predicted stand development patterns were in agreement with the established theories of forest stand development. This study demonstrated a framework for forest landscape modeling including model initialization, calibration, and evaluation of predictions.

Oak (Quercus L.) is an abundant and widely distributed genus in eastern North America. A history of periodic ire, grazing, canopy disturbance and timber harvesting has favored oak's dominance. But, changes in this regime toward much less ire or complete ire suppression, and selective cutting are causing the successional replacement of oak. High populations of forest herbivores such as whitetailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), invasive species such as gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar), or dominance of native lora such as mountain laurel (Kalmia latifolia) can also inhibit oak regeneration and add to its loss within a region. Successful oak regeneration is dependent on having an adequate number of large oak advance reproduction before stand regeneration. However, this prerequisite is often lacking in eastern oak forests. Many oak stands have either few or no oak advance reproduction, and when present, it is small and noncompetitive. These common situations can be addressed through silviculture. The lack of oak seedlings in older, mature stands is addressed with a three-stage shelterwood method that promotes acorn production and site preparatory burning that increases acorn germination success. In younger, i.e., sapling and pole stands, crop tree thinning to release co-dominant oaks promotes crown development and future acorn production. The lack of competitive-sized oak reproduction is addressed with a two ­ or three ­ stage shelterwood sequence because this method is very useful for providing adequate light to foster root development of the shade intolerant oak seedlings. Application of the shelterwood method often includes herbicides or prescribed ire to control competing vegetation either before or after the inal overstory removal. When adequate oak advance reproduction is present, then clearcutting is a viable option, but measures may be needed after harvesting to control competing vegetation. Prescribed ire applied several times after inal removal of the shelterwood, or clearcutting is proving a useful tool to favor oak. These silvicultural practices generally have either no or positive impacts on non-target communities of herbaceous plants, mammals, birds, and herpetofauna.