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The COVE trial randomized participants to receive two doses of mRNA-1273 vaccine or placebo on Days 1 and 29 (D1, D29). Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Spike IgG binding antibodies (bAbs), anti-receptor binding domain IgG bAbs, 50% inhibitory dilution neutralizing antibody (nAb) titers, and 80% inhibitory dilution nAb titers were measured at D29 and D57. We assessed these markers as correlates of protection (CoPs) against COVID-19 using stochastic interventional vaccine efficacy (SVE) analysis and principal surrogate (PS) analysis, frameworks not used in our previous COVE immune correlates analyses. By SVE analysis, hypothetical shifts of the D57 Spike IgG distribution from a geometric mean concentration (GMC) of 2737 binding antibody units (BAU)/mL (estimated vaccine efficacy (VE): 92.9% (95% CI: 91.7%, 93.9%)) to 274 BAU/mL or to 27,368 BAU/mL resulted in an overall estimated VE of 84.2% (79.0%, 88.1%) and 97.6% (97.4%, 97.7%), respectively. By binary marker PS analysis of Low and High subgroups (cut-point: 2094 BAU/mL), the ignorance interval (IGI) and estimated uncertainty interval (EUI) for VE were [85%, 90%] and (78%, 93%) for Low compared to [95%, 96%] and (92%, 97%) for High. By continuous marker PS analysis, the IGI and 95% EUI for VE at the 2.5th percentile (519.4 BAU/mL) vs. at the 97.5th percentile (9262.9 BAU/mL) of D57 Spike IgG concentration were [92.6%, 93.4%] and (89.2%, 95.7%) vs. [94.3%, 94.6%] and (89.7%, 97.0%). Results were similar for other D29 and D57 markers. Thus, the SVE and PS analyses additionally support all four markers at both time points as CoPs.

Measuring immune correlates of disease acquisition and protection in the context of a clinical trial is a prerequisite for improved vaccine design. We analysed binding and neutralizing antibody measurements 4 weeks post vaccination as correlates of risk of moderate to severe-critical COVID-19 through 83 d post vaccination in the phase 3, double-blind placebo-controlled phase of ENSEMBLE, an international randomized efficacy trial of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S. We also evaluated correlates of protection in the trial cohort. Of the three antibody immune markers we measured, we found most support for 50% inhibitory dilution (ID50) neutralizing antibody titre as a correlate of risk and of protection. The outcome hazard ratio was 0.49 (95% confidence interval 0.29, 0.81; P = 0.006) per 10-fold increase in ID50; vaccine efficacy was 60% (43%, 72%) at non-quantifiable ID50 (

ObjectiveChikungunya virus (CHIKV) causes persistent arthritis, and our prior study showed that approximately one third of CHIKV arthritis patients had exacerbated arthritis associated with exercise. The underlying mechanism of exercise-associated chikungunya arthritis flare (EACAF) is unknown, and this analysis aimed to examine the regulatory T-cell immune response related to CHIKV arthritis flares.MethodsIn our study, 124 Colombian patients with a history of CHIKV infection four years prior were enrolled and 113 cases with serologically confirmed CHIKV IgG were used in this analysis. Patient information was gathered via questionnaires, and blood samples were taken to identify total live peripheral blood mononuclear cells, CD4+ cells, T regulatory cells, and their immune markers. We compared outcomes in CHIKV patients with (n = 38) vs. without (n = 75) EACAF using t-tests to assess means and the Fisher's exact test, chi-squared to evaluate categorical variables, and Kruskal-Wallis tests in the setting of skewed distributions (SAS 9.3).Results33.6% of CHIKV cases reported worsening arthritis with exercise. EACAF patients reported higher global assessments of arthritis disease ranging from 0-100 (71.2 ± 19.7 vs. 59.9 ± 28.0, p=0.03). EACAF patients had lower ratios of T regulatory (Treg)/CD4+ T-cells (1.95 ± 0.73 vs. 2.4 ± 1.29, p = 0.04) and lower percentage of GARP (glycoprotein-A repetitions predominant) expression per Treg (0.13 ± 0.0.33 vs. 0.16 ± 0.24 p= 0.020).ConclusionThese findings suggest relative decreases in GARP expression may indicate a decreased level of immune suppression. Treg populations in patients with CHIKV arthritis may contribute to arthritis flares during exercise, though current research is conflicting.

The cytokine profile during acute chikungunya infection that predicts future chronic arthritis has not yet been investigated. We conducted a nested case-control study comparing serum cytokine concentrations during acute chikungunya infection in cases (n = 121) that reported the presence of chronic joint pain versus age- and gender-matched controls (n = 121) who reported recovery at 20 months post infection. We observed that a robust cytokine response during acute infection was correlated with a decreased incidence of chronic joint pain and that low TNFα, IL-13, IL-2, and IL-4 during acute infection was predictive of chronic joint pain. These data suggest that a robust cytokine response is necessary for viral clearance and cytokines that are related to immune tolerance during acute infection may be protective for chronic arthritis pathogenesis.

ObjectiveTo estimate the frequency of chronic joint pain after infection with chikungunya virus in a Latin American cohort.MethodsA cross-sectional follow-up of a prospective cohort of 500 patients from the Atlántico Department, Colombia who were clinically diagnosed as having chikungunya virus during the 2014-2015 epidemic was conducted. Baseline symptoms and follow-up symptoms at 20 months were evaluated in serologically confirmed cases.ResultsAmong the 500 patients enrolled, 485 had serologically confirmed chikungunya virus and reported joint pain status. Patients were predominantly adults (mean ± SD age 49 ± 16 years) and female, had an education level of high school or less, and were of Mestizo ethnicity. The most commonly affected joints were the small joints, including the wrists, ankles, and fingers. The initial virus symptoms lasted a median of 4 days (interquartile range [IQR] 3-8 days). Sixteen percent of the participants reported missing school or work (median 4 days [IQR 2-7 days]). After 20 months, one-fourth of the participants had persistent joint pain. A multivariable analysis indicated that significant predictors of persistent joint pain included college graduate status, initial symptoms of headache or knee pain, missed work, normal activities affected, ≥4 days of initial symptoms, and ≥4 weeks of initial joint pain.ConclusionThis is the first report to describe the frequency of chikungunya virus-related arthritis in the Americas after a 20-month follow-up. The high frequency of chronic disease highlights the need for the development of prevention and treatment methods.

ObjectiveTo determine if chikungunya virus persists in synovial fluid after infection, potentially acting as a causative mechanism of persistent arthritis.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional study of 38 Colombian participants with clinical chikungunya virus infection during the 2014-2015 epidemic who reported chronic arthritis and 10 location-matched controls without chikungunya virus or arthritis. Prior chikungunya virus infection status was serologically confirmed, and the presence of synovial fluid chikungunya virus, viral RNA, and viral proteins was determined by viral culture, quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR), and mass spectrometry, respectively. Biomarkers were assessed by multiplex analysis.ResultsPatients with serologically confirmed chikungunya arthritis (33 of 38 [87%]) were predominantly female (82%) and African Colombian (55%) or white Colombian (33%), with moderate disease activity (mean ± SD Disease Activity Score in 28 joints 4.52 ± 0.77) a median of 22 months after infection (interquartile range 21-23 months). Initial symptoms of chikungunya virus infection included joint pain (97%), swelling (97%), stiffness (91%), and fever (91%). The most commonly affected joints were the knees (87%), elbows (76%), wrists (75%), ankles (56%), fingers (56%), and toes (56%). Synovial fluid samples from all patients with chikungunya arthritis were negative for chikungunya virus on qRT-PCR, showed no viral proteins on mass spectrometry, and cultures were negative. Case and control plasma cytokine and chemokine concentrations did not differ significantly.ConclusionThis is one of the largest observational studies involving analysis of the synovial fluid of chikungunya arthritis patients. Synovial fluid analysis revealed no detectable chikungunya virus. This finding suggests that chikungunya virus may cause arthritis through induction of potential host autoimmunity, suggesting a role for immunomodulating agents in the treatment of chikungunya arthritis, or that low-level viral persistence exists in synovial tissue only and is undetectable in synovial fluid.

The best assay or marker to define mRNA-1273 vaccine–induced antibodies as a correlate of protection (CoP) is unclear. In the COVE trial, participants received two doses of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine or placebo. We previously assessed IgG binding antibodies to the spike protein (spike IgG) or receptor binding domain (RBD IgG) and pseudovirus neutralizing antibody 50 or 80% inhibitory dilution titer measured on day 29 or day 57, as correlates of risk (CoRs) and CoPs against symptomatic COVID-19 over 4 months after dose. Here, we assessed a new marker, live virus 50% microneutralization titer (LV-MN50), and compared and combined markers in multivariable analyses. LV-MN50 was an inverse CoR, with a hazard ratio of 0.39 (95% confidence interval, 0.19 to 0.83) at day 29 and 0.51 (95% confidence interval, 0.25 to 1.04) at day 57 per 10-fold increase. In multivariable analyses, pseudovirus neutralization titers and anti-spike binding antibodies performed best as CoRs; combining antibody markers did not improve correlates. Pseudovirus neutralization titer was the strongest independent correlate in a multivariable model. Overall, these results supported pseudovirus neutralizing and binding antibody assays as CoRs and CoPs, with the live virus assay as a weaker correlate in this sample set. Day 29 markers performed as well as day 57 markers as CoPs, which could accelerate immunogenicity and immunobridging studies. Connecting correlates of protection: Correlates of protection are immunological markers, such as quantity of antibodies, that associate with the level of vaccine protection. Identifying such correlates is important for measuring the performance of vaccines. Here, Benkeser et al. aimed to identify the best correlates of protection against COVID-19 in recipients of the mRNA-1273 vaccine. Using immune markers including live virus neutralizing antibody titers in samples from participants of the COVE mRNA-1273 vaccine efficacy trial, the authors found that a single pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titer or a single spike protein–binding antibody concentration was the best correlate of protection for the vaccine. Higher pseudovirus neutralizing antibody titers and higher spike protein–binding antibody concentrations associated with greater vaccine protection from COVID-19. Together, these data will help to guide future vaccine development and will aid in immunobridging studies. —CM [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]