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Prior studies have suggested reciprocal relationships between cognitive function and adiposity, but this has not been investigated with population representative data sets. The purpose of this study was to examine the association between cognitive function and adiposity in a large population-based sample of middle-aged and older adults. It was hypothesized that better scores on tests of cognitive function would be associated with lower adiposity, and this association would be primarily mediated through life-style behavior and physical health status.Using baseline data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging ( N = 30,097), we tested our hypotheses using three indicators of cognitive function (animal fluency, Stroop interference, and reaction time) and four indicators of adiposity (body mass index, total fat mass, waist circumference, and waist-hip ratio). Hierarchical multivariable linear regression modeling was conducted followed by tests for moderation by socioeconomic status and mediation through diet, physical activity, hypertension, and diabetes status.All measures of cognitive indicators were significantly associated with adiposity after adjusting for confounders. In general, superior performance on animal fluency, Stroop, and reaction time tasks were associated with lower adiposity by most metrics. Stroop interference was associated with lower adiposity across all metrics, including body mass index ( b = - 0.04, 95 % confidence interval [CI] = - 0.06 to - 0.01), total fat mass ( b = 19.35, 95 % CI = 8.57 to 30.12), waist circumference ( b = 33.83, 95 % CI = 10.08 to 57.58), and waist-hip ratio ( b = 0.13, 95 % CI = 0.01 to 0.24). These associations were more substantial for moderate- and high-income subpopulations. Mediation analyses suggested that the aforementioned effects were mediated through life-style behavior (e.g., diet and physical activity) and physical health conditions (e.g., diabetes and hypertension).Reliable associations exist between cognitive function and adiposity in middle-aged and older adults. The associations seem to be mediated through life-style behavior and physical health conditions.

Introduction Using a quasiexperimental design, we compared the impact of the 2000 Canadian introduction of graphic warning labels (GWLs) on differences in smoking prevalence by sex and education, to the United States, where no GWLs were introduced. Methods We pooled 1999–2004 data from the Canadian Tobacco Use Monitoring Survey and the U.S. Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. We used a difference-in-difference (DD) model to assess the impact of Canadian policy introduction on smoking prevalence, and a difference-in-difference-in-difference (DDD) model to examine differences in the policy impact by sex and education, comparing Canada (the treatment group) with the United States (the control group). Results From 1999 to 2004, smoking prevalence decreased from 23.7% to 18.6% in Canada, and from 21.7% to 20.0% in the United States. Results from the DD regression models showed that Canadian respondents reported lower odds of being a current smoker compared to the U.S. respondents following the 2000 introduction of GWLs (OR = 0.84, 95% CI = 0.74–0.94). The DDD model showed that the impact of the Canadian GWLs versus the United States did not differ by sex or education. Conclusions The 2000 Canadian GWL policy reduced smoking prevalence overall, with similar reductions for males and females and across education levels. The impact of the Canadian GWLs in reducing smoking prevalence did not reduce differences by sex or education. Although beneficial for all smokers, GWLs may not serve to decrease existing disparities, especially those by socioeconomic status. Implications Existing evidence shows that GWL implementation is associated with reductions in smoking prevalence. But there is limited evidence from past evaluation studies on whether the impact of GWLs on smoking prevalence differs by sociodemographic subgroup. Our findings confirm existing studies that the 2000 implementation of GWLs in Canada was significantly associated with an overall reduction in smoking prevalence in Canada compared to the United States. However, our study improves existing evidence by showing that the impact of the Canadian GWLs on smoking prevalence did not differ by sex or education, and thus did not reduce existing smoking disparities by educational levels.

This article shares what was learned from the feasibility assessment of a nurse-led school-based active surveillance (SBAS) pilot to track chronic absenteeism using myalgic encephalomyelitis/chronic fatigue syndrome (ME/CFS) as an exemplar. This pilot encompassed a 3-year period with training and feedback from school nurses (SNs) on data collection and ME/CFS. SNs found that the SBAS process helped them effectively identifying undiagnosed conditions. The assessment revealed the importance of focusing outreach efforts and establishing relationships with the school leadership in developing health policies and programs in the school setting. The pilot data were used to develop a manual to guide SNs for the SBAS process. This can be viewed as a model for SNs in establishing a surveillance to identify and track conditions like ME/CFS. With overlapping symptoms of Long COVID to ME/CFS, this assessment may provide insights for additional efforts to understand the impact of Long COVID on students’ education.

Introduction Concurrent use of tobacco and cannabis may impede successful cigarette smoking cessation. This study examined whether changes in cannabis use frequency were associated with smoking cessation. Aims and Methods Nationally representative samples of adult cigarette smokers from Canada (n = 1455), the United States (n = 892), England (n = 1416), and Australia (n = 717) were surveyed in 2016 and 2018. In each year, smokers reported how often they used cannabis in the previous 12 months. Reports were compared to determine whether cannabis use increased, remained unchanged, or decreased. Smoking cessation outcomes, measured in 2018, were (1) any attempt to quit in the previous year, (2) currently quit, and (3) currently quit for at least 6 months. Weighted multivariable logistic regression estimated the association between changes in cannabis use and cessation outcomes. Results Cigarette smokers who increased their frequency of cannabis use were significantly less likely to be currently quit than noncannabis-using smokers (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.31% to 0.86%); they were also less likely to have quit for at least 6 months (aOR = 0.30; 95% CI = 0.15% to 0.62%). Conclusions Smokers who increase their frequency of cannabis use have poorer smoking cessation outcomes compared to noncannabis-using smokers. It will be important to monitor the impact of cannabis legalization on patterns of cannabis use, and whether this influences cigarette smoking cessation rates. Implications Cigarette smokers who start using cannabis may be less likely to quit cigarettes compared with smokers who do not use cannabis at all. If smokers who also use cannabis are more likely to continue smoking, it is important to monitor these trends and understand the impact, if any, on smoking cessation in jurisdictions that have legalized cannabis for nonmedical use.

Time-to-event data are often subject to left-truncation. Lack of consideration of the sampling condition will introduce bias and loss in efficiency of the estimation. While auxiliary information from the same or similar cohorts may be available, challenges arise due to the practical issue of accessibility of individual-level data and taking account of various sampling conditions for different cohorts. In this paper, we introduce a likelihood-based method to incorporate information from auxiliary data to eliminate the left-truncation problem and improve efficiency. A one-step Monte-Carlo Expectation-Maximization algorithm is developed to calculate an augmented likelihood through creating pseudo-data sets which extend the form and conditions of the observed sample. The method is illustrated by both a real dataset and simulation studies.

Introduction This study retrospectively describes smoking cessation aids, cessation services, and other types of assistance used by current and ex-smokers at their last quit attempt in four high-income countries. Aims and Methods Data are from the Wave 3 (2020) International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Eligible respondents were daily smokers or past-daily recent ex-smokers who made a quit attempt/quit smoking in the last 24-months, resulting in 3614 respondents. Self-reported quit aids/assistance included: nicotine vaping products (NVPs), nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), other pharmacological therapies (OPT: varenicline/bupropion/cytisine), tobacco (noncombustible: heated tobacco product/smokeless tobacco), cessation services (quitline/counseling/doctor), other cessation support (e.g., mobile apps/website/pamphlets, etc.), or no aid. Results Among all respondents, at last quit attempt, 28.8% used NRT, 28.0% used an NVP, 12.0% used OPT, 7.8% used a cessation service, 1.7% used a tobacco product, 16.5% other cessation support, and 38.6% used no aid/assistance. Slightly more than half of all smokers and ex-smokers (57.2%) reported using any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT or OPT) and/or an NVP, half-used NRT and/or an NVP (49.9%), and 38.4% used any type of pharmacotherapy (NRT and/or OPT). A quarter of smokers/ex-smokers used a combination of aids. NVPs and NRT were the most prevalent types of cessation aids used in all four countries; however, NRT was more commonly used in Australia relative to NVPs, and in England, NVPs were more commonly used than NRT. The use of NVPs or NRT was more evenly distributed in Canada and the US. Conclusions It appears that many smokers are still trying to quit unassisted, rather than utilizing cessation aids or other forms of assistance. Of those who did use assistance, NRT and NVPs were the most common method, which appears to suggest that nicotine substitution is important for smokers when trying to quit smoking. Implications Clinical practice guidelines in a number of countries state that the most effective smoking cessation method is a combination of pharmacotherapy and face-to-face behavioral support by a health professional. Most quit attempts however are made unassisted, particularly without the use of government-approved cessation medications. This study found that about two in five daily smokers used approved cessation medications (nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) or other approved pharmacotherapies, such as varenicline). Notably, nicotine substitution in the form of either NRT and nicotine vaping products (NVPs) were the most common method of cessation assistance (used by one in two respondents), but the proportion using NRT and/or NVPs varied by country. Few smokers who attempted to quit utilized cessation services such as stop-smoking programs/counseling or quitlines, despite that these types of support are effective in helping smokers manage withdrawals and cravings. Primary healthcare professionals should ask their patients about smoking and offer them evidence-based treatment, as well as be prepared to provide smokers with a referral to trained cessation counselors, particularly when it comes to tailoring intensive treatment programs for regular daily smokers. Additionally, healthcare providers should be prepared to discuss the use of NVPs, particularly if smokers are seeking advice about NVPs, wanting to try/or already using an NVP to quit smoking, have failed repeatedly to quit with other cessation methods, and/or if they do not want to give up tobacco/nicotine use completely.

Background Theoretical perspectives suggest that adiposity and cognitive function may be bidirectionally associated, but this has not been examined in a large-scale data set. The current investigation aims to fill this gap using a large, representative sample of middle-aged and older adults. Methods Using data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (N = 25 854), the bidirectional hypothesis was examined with 3 indicators of cognitive function (ie, executive function, processing speed, and verbal fluency) and adiposity (ie, waist circumference [WC], body mass index [BMI], and total fat mass). We used multivariate multivariable regression and structural equation modeling to assess the prospective associations between adiposity and cognitive indicators. Results Analyses revealed that higher baseline WC was associated with higher Stroop interference at follow-up for both middle-aged (standardized estimate, β = 0.08, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.06, 0.10) and older adults (β = 0.07, 95% CI 0.04, 0.09). Similarly, higher baseline Stroop interference was also associated with higher follow-up WC in middle-aged (β = 0.08, 95% CI 0.06, 0.10) and older adults (β = 0.03, 95% CI 0.01, 0.06). Effects involving semantic fluency and processing speed were less consistent. The earlier effects were similar to those observed using other adiposity indicators (eg, BMI and total fat mass) and were robust to adjustment for demographics and other cofounders, and when using latent variable modeling of the adiposity variable. Conclusion Evidence for a bidirectional relationship between adiposity and cognitive function exists, though the associations are most reliable for executive function and primarily evident at midlife.

Background Most persons with dementia have multiple chronic conditions; however, it is unclear whether co-existing chronic conditions contribute to health-care use and cost. Methods Persons with dementia and ≥2 chronic conditions using the National Health and Aging Trends Study and Medicare claims data, 2011 to 2014. Results Chronic kidney disease and ischemic heart disease were significantly associated with increased adjusted risk ratios of annual hospitalizations, hospitalization costs, and direct medical costs. Depression, hypertension, and stroke or transient ischemic attack were associated with direct medical and societal costs, while atrial fibrillation was associated with increased hospital and direct medical costs. No chronic condition was associated with informal care costs. Conclusions Among older adults with dementia, proactive and ambulatory care that includes informal caregivers along with primary and specialty providers, may offer promise to decrease use and costs for chronic kidney disease, ischemic heart disease, atrial fibrillation, depression, and hypertension.

This paper provides an overview of empirical likelihood methods for analysis of survey data when the finite population parameters are defined through a set of census estimating equations. The general inferential framework involving both the superpopulation and the finite population parameters is described, and inferential procedures for point estimation, hypothesis testing, variable selection, and Bayesian analysis, along with the main computational procedures, are discussed.

Aims This study examined whether nontobacco flavors are more commonly used by vapers (e-cigarette users) compared with tobacco flavor, described which flavors are most popular, and tested whether flavors are associated with: vaping satisfaction relative to smoking, level of enjoyment with vaping, reasons for using e-cigarettes, and making an attempt to quit smoking by smokers. Methods This cross-sectional study included 1603 adults from Canada and the United States who vaped at least weekly, and were either current smokers (concurrent users) or former smokers (exclusive vapers). Respondents were categorized into one of seven flavors they used most in the last month: tobacco, tobacco–menthol, unflavored, or one of the nontobacco flavors: menthol/mint, fruit, candy, or “other” (eg, coffee). Results Vapers use a wide range of flavors, with 63.1% using a nontobacco flavor. The most common flavor categories were fruit (29.4%) and tobacco (28.7%), followed by mint/menthol (14.4%) and candy (13.5%). Vapers using candy (41.0%, p < .0001) or fruit flavors (26.0%, p = .01) found vaping more satisfying (compared with smoking) than vapers using tobacco flavor (15.5%) and rated vaping as very/extremely enjoyable (fruit: 50.9%; candy: 60.9%) than those using tobacco flavor (39.4%). Among concurrent users, those using fruit (74.6%, p = .04) or candy flavors (81.1%, p = .003) were more likely than tobacco flavor users (63.5%) to vape in order to quit smoking. Flavor category was not associated with the likelihood of a quit attempt (p = .46). Among exclusive vapers, tobacco and nontobacco flavors were popular; however, those using tobacco (99.0%) were more likely than those using candy (72.8%, p = .002) or unflavored (42.5%, p = .005) to vape in order to stay quit. Conclusions A majority of regular vapers in Canada and the US use nontobacco flavors. Greater satisfaction and enjoyment with vaping are higher among fruit and candy flavor users. While it does not appear that certain flavors are associated with a greater propensity to attempt to quit smoking among concurrent users, nontobacco flavors are popular among former smokers who are exclusively vaping. Future research should determine the likely impact of flavor bans on those who are vaping to quit smoking or to stay quit. Implications Recent concerns about the attractiveness of e-cigarette flavors among youth have resulted in flavor restrictions in some jurisdictions of the United States and Canada. However, little is known about the possible consequences for current and former smokers if they no longer have access to their preferred flavors. This study shows that a variety of nontobacco flavors, especially fruit, are popular among adult vapers, particularly among those who have quit smoking and are now exclusively vaping. Limiting access to flavors may therefore reduce the appeal of e-cigarettes among adults who are trying to quit smoking or stay quit.

Increasing quitting among smokers is essential to reduce the population burden of smoking-related diseases. Smokers’ intentions to quit smoking are among the strongest predictors of future quit attempts. It is therefore important to understand factors associated with intentions to quit, and this is particularly important in low- and middle-income countries, where there have been few studies on quit intentions. The present study was conducted to identify factors associated with quit intentions among smokers in Malaysia. Data came from the 2020 International Tobacco Control (ITC) Malaysia Survey, a self-administered online survey of 1047 adult (18+) Malaysian smokers. Smokers who reported that they planned to quit smoking in the next month, within the next six months, or sometime beyond six months were classified as having intentions to quit smoking. Factors associated with quit intentions were examined by using multivariable logistic regression. Most smokers (85.2%) intended to quit smoking. Smokers were more likely to have quit intentions if they were of Malay ethnicity vs. other ethnicities (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.03–3.20), of moderate (AOR = 2.11, 95% CI = 1.12–3.99) or high level of education vs. low level of education (AOR = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.04–3.75), if they had ever tried to quit smoking vs. no quit attempt (AOR = 8.81, 95% CI = 5.09–15.27), if they received advice to quit from a healthcare provider vs. not receiving any quit advice (AOR = 3.78, 95% CI = 1.62–8.83), and if they reported worrying about future health because of smoking (AOR = 3.11, 95% CI = 1.35–7.15 (a little worried/moderately worried vs. not worried); AOR = 7.35, 95% CI = 2.47–21.83 (very worried vs. not worried)). The factors associated with intentions to quit smoking among Malaysian smokers were consistent with those identified in other countries. A better understanding of the factors influencing intentions to quit can strengthen existing cessation programs and guide the development of more effective smoking-cessation programs in Malaysia.

There is mixed evidence as to whether nicotine vaping products (NVPs) can help adults who smoke transition away from cigarettes. This study investigated if self-reported attempts to quit smoking and smoking cessation, over a period of either 18 or 24 months, differed between respondents who initiated nicotine vaping versus those who did not. Outcome comparisons were made between those who: (1) initiated vaping vs. those who did not; (2) initiated daily or non-daily vaping vs. those who did not; and (3) initiated daily or non-daily vaping between surveys and continued to vape at follow-up (daily or non-daily) vs. those who did not initiate vaping.This cohort study included 3516 respondents from the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Surveys (Australia, Canada, England, United Sates), recruited at Wave 1 (2016) or 2 (2018) and followed up at Wave 2 (18 months) and/or 3 (2020, 24 months). Adults who smoked daily at baseline and did not have a history of regular vaping were included. Initiation of vaping was defined as beginning to vape at least monthly between surveys. Respondents indicated whether they made an attempt to quit smoking between surveys. Smoking cessation was defined as those who self-reported no longer smoking cigarettes at follow-up.Relative to those who did not initiate vaping, initiation of any daily vaping between surveys was associated with a greater likelihood of smokers making a cigarette quit attempt (p 0.001) and quitting smoking (p 0.001). Among smokers who attempted to quit smoking, initiation of daily vaping was associated with a greater likelihood of being abstinent from smoking at follow-up (p = 0.001). Respondents who initiated vaping between surveys and were vaping daily at follow up were significantly more likely to have attempted to quit smoking (p 0.001) and to have quit smoking (p 0.001) than those who did not initiate vaping. Respondents who initiated non-daily vaping did not differ significantly from those who did not initiate vaping on any of the outcome measures.Daily NVP use was associated with increased attempts to quit smoking and abstinence from smoking cigarettes. These findings are consistent with the concept that complete cigarette substitution may be more likely to be achieved when smokers vape nicotine daily.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the pattern of frailty across several of social stratifiers associated with health inequalities.Design, setting and participantsCross-sectional baseline data on 51 338 community-living women and men aged 45–85 years from the population-based Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (collected from September 2011 to May 2015) were used in this study.Primary outcomes and measuresA Frailty Index (FI) was constructed using self-reported chronic conditions, psychological function and cognitive status and physical functioning variables. Social stratifiers were chosen based on the Pan-Canadian Health Inequalities Reporting Initiative, reflecting key health inequalities in Canada. Unadjusted and adjusted FIs and domain-specific FIs (based on chronic conditions, physical function, psychological/cognitive deficits) were examined across population strata.ResultsThe overall mean FI was 0.13±0.08. It increased with age and was higher in women than men. Higher mean FIs were found among study participants with low income (0.20±0.10), who did not complete secondary education (0.17±0.09) or had low perceived social standing (0.18±0.10). Values did not differ by Canadian province of residence or urban/rural status. After simultaneously adjusting for population characteristics and other covariates, income explained the most heterogeneity in frailty, especially in younger age groups; similar patterns were found for men and women. The average frailty for people aged 45–54 in the lowest income group was greater than that for those aged 75–85 years. The heterogeneity in the FI among income groups was greatest for the psychological/cognitive domain.ConclusionsOur results suggest that especially in the younger age groups, psychological/cognitive deficits are most highly associated with both overall frailty levels and the gradient in frailty associated with income. If this is predictive of later increases in the other two domains (and overall frailty), it raises the question whether targeting mental health factors earlier in life might be an effective approach to mitigating frailty.

In the quest to model various phenomena, the foundational importance of parameter identifiability to sound statistical modeling may be less well appreciated than goodness of fit. Identifiability concerns the quality of objective information in data to facilitate estimation of a parameter, while nonidentifiability means there are parameters in a model about which the data provide little or no information. In purely empirical models where parsimonious good fit is the chief concern, nonidentifiability (or parameter redundancy) implies overparameterization of the model. In contrast, nonidentifiability implies underinformativeness of available data in mechanistically derived models where parameters are interpreted as having strong practical meaning. This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose-response of Escherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics approval to ensure generated data can yield strong objective information about all mechanistic parameters of interest. When Bayesian methods are applied to a nonidentifiable model, the subjective prior effectively fabricates information about any parameters about which the data carry no objective information. Finally, structural nonidentifiability can lead to spurious models that fit data well but can yield severely flawed inferences and predictions when they are interpreted or used inappropriately.

Aims To examine current and ex-smokers' reasons for continuing or discontinuing regular use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs). Design and participants Cross-sectional study of 2722 current daily/weekly, and 921 ex-daily/weekly, adult vapers who were either current or ex-cigarette smokers when surveyed. Setting 2016 ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping wave 1 (4CV1) surveys conducted in the United States (n = 1159), England (n = 1269), Canada (n = 964) and Australia (n = 251). Measurements Current vapers were asked about the following reasons for regular NVP use: less harmful to others, social acceptance, enjoyment, use in smoke-free areas, affordability and managing smoking behaviour. Ex-vapers were asked about the following reasons for discontinuing regular NVP use: addiction concerns, affordability, negative experiences, perceived social unacceptability, safety concerns, product dissatisfaction, inconvenience, unhelpfulness for quitting, unhelpfulness for managing cravings and not needed for smoking relapse prevention. Possible correlates of NVP use and discontinuation, including smoking status, smoking/vaping frequency, quit duration (ex-smokers only), country, age and type of NVP device used, were examined using multivariate logistic regression models. Findings For current smokers, the top three reasons for current regular NVP use were: helpful for cutting down smoking (85.6%), less harmful to others (77.9%) and helpful for quitting smoking (77.4%). The top three reasons for discontinuing vaping were: not being satisfying (77.9%), unhelpfulness for cravings (63.2%), and unhelpfulness for quitting smoking (52.4%). For ex-smokers, the top three reasons for current vaping were: enjoyment (90.6%), less harmful to others (90%) and affordability (89.5%); and for discontinuing were: not needed to stay quit (77.3%), not being satisfying (49.5%) and safety concerns (44%). Reported reasons varied by user characteristics, including age, country and NVP device type. Conclusions Regular use of nicotine vaping products is mainly motivated by its perceived benefits, especially for reducing or quitting smoking, whereas its discontinuation is motivated by perceived lack of such benefits, with some variation by user characteristics.

Introduction This study is the first nationally representative survey of U.S. adults (18+) to examine perceptions of the relative harms of eight non-cigarette tobacco products. Methods Data are from Wave 1 of the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study Adult Questionnaire, a nationally representative study of 32,320 adults in the United States conducted from September 2013 to December 2014. Results 40.7% of adults believed that electronic cigarettes were less harmful than cigarettes, and 17.8% of adults believed that hookah was less harmful than cigarettes. Those less knowledgeable about the health risks of smoking were more likely to believe that the non-cigarette products were less harmful than cigarettes. Current non-cigarette tobacco product users were more likely to perceive that product to be less harmful than cigarettes (except filtered cigars). There was a significant positive correlation between beliefs that cigarettes were harmful and the likelihood of using hookah; perceptions of the harmfulness of cigarettes was not associated with the likelihood of using any other product. Conclusions Perceptions of harmfulness varied widely across non-cigarette tobacco products. E-cigarettes and hookah in particular are seen as less harmful compared to cigarettes.

In this paper, a class of variance estimator is proposed of a finite population variance under an adaptive cluster sampling design in the presence of information on an auxiliary variable. We obtain...

BackgroundIn February 2020, Canada implemented plain packaging without any changes to the size and content of health warning labels (HWLs), which were last updated in 2012 (pictorial HWLs on 75% of the pack front and back). This pre-post evaluation study assessed the impact of plain packaging in Canada on: (1) pack appeal; (2) HWL effectiveness; and (3) support for plain packaging. Additionally, a quasi–experimental design was used to assess the Canadian results relative to two comparator countries: Australia, where plain packaging (with new larger HWLs) was implemented in 2012, and the United States (USA), where plain packaging has not been implemented and the same text warnings have appeared on cigarette packs since 1985.MethodsData are from adult smokers who participated in the 2018 and/or 2020 International Tobacco Control Smoking and Vaping Surveys in Canada (n=4600), Australia (n=1834) and the USA (n=3046). Online surveys were conducted before (February to July 2018) and after (February to June 2020) the implementation of plain packaging in Canada. Adjusted regression analyses were conducted on weighted data.ResultsPlain packaging was associated with a significant increase in the percentage of Canadian smokers who did not like the look of their cigarette pack (2018: 28.6% vs 2020: 44.7%, pConclusionsPlain packaging in Canada substantially reduced pack appeal and increased support for the policy among adult smokers; however, there was no increase in the effectiveness of Canada’s 8-year-old HWLs. The impact of plain packaging on health warning effectiveness may depend on the design of the warnings and length of time since implementation.

BackgroundSeveral measures recommended by the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control have not been implemented in the European Union, despite changes in the legislation such as the Tobacco Products Directive (TPD). This study aims to understand smokers’ and recent quitters’ levels of support for tobacco control measures that go beyond the TPD during and after its implementation.MethodsData from wave 1 (2016, n=6011) and wave 2 (2018, n=6027) of the EUREST-PLUS International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project Six European Countries Survey, a cohort of adult smokers in Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Spain were used to estimate the level of support for seven different tobacco control measures, overall and by country.ResultsIn 2018, the highest support was for implementing measures to further regulate tobacco products (50.5%) and for holding tobacco companies accountable for the harm caused by smoking (48.8%). Additionally, in 2018, 40% of smokers and recent quitters supported a total ban on cigarettes and other tobacco products within ten years, if assistance to quit smoking is provided. Overall, support for tobacco control measures among smokers and recent quitters after the implementation of the TPD remained stable over time.ConclusionThere is considerable support among smokers and recent quitters for tobacco control measures that go beyond the current measures implemented. A significant percentage of smokers would support a ban on tobacco products in the future if the government provided assistance to quit smoking. This highlights the importance of implementing measures to increase smoking cessation in conjunction with other policies.

IntroductionBetween 2015 and 2018, Canada banned menthol cigarettes. This study pooled data from two pre–post cohort studies (the Ontario Menthol Ban Study, and the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation (ITC) Canada Survey, conducted in seven provinces) to derive more precise estimates of the impact of Canada’s menthol ban on quitting and to apply these estimates to project the impact of a menthol ban in the USA.MethodsWeighted multivariable logistic analyses compared post-ban quit success of menthol smokers with non-menthol smokers (for daily smokers and for all (daily + non-daily) smokers), controlling for sex, age, ethnicity, education, baseline smoking status, baseline cigarettes per day and study regions. Projections to the USA were created by multiplying the effect size of the Canadian menthol ban on quitting (percentage of increased quitting among menthol smokers) by the number of menthol smokers overall and among African Americans, from the 2019 National Survey on Drug Use and Health.ResultsAfter the menthol cigarette ban, menthol smokers were more likely than non-menthol smokers to have quit smoking among daily smokers (difference=8.0%; 95% CI: 2.4% to 13.7%,p=0.005) and all (daily+non-daily) smokers (difference=7.3%; 95% CI: 2.1% to 12.5%,p=0.006). The projected number of smokers who would quit after a US menthol ban would be 789 724 daily smokers (including 199 732 African Americans) and 1 337 988 daily+non-daily smokers (including 381 272 African Americans).ConclusionsThis pooled analysis of Canada’s menthol cigarette ban provides the foundation for estimating the impact of menthol bans in the USA and other countries. Projections suggest that a US menthol cigarette ban would have a substantial impact on increasing quitting.

This descriptive study of smokers (smoked at least monthly) and recent ex-smokers (quit for &le, 2 years) examined transitions over an 18 month period in their smoking and vaping behaviors. Data are from Waves 1 (W1: 2016) and 2 (W2: 2018) of the ITC Four Country Smoking and Vaping Survey, a cohort study of adult (&ge, 18+) smokers, concurrent users (smoke and vape), and recent ex-smokers from Australia, Canada, England, and the United States (US). Respondents (N = 5016) were classified according to their smoking and vaping status, which resulted in eight subgroups: (1) exclusive daily smokers (2) exclusive non-daily smokers, (3&ndash, 6) concurrent users (subdivided into four groups by each combination of daily/non-daily smoking and daily/non-daily vaping), (7) ex-smokers who vape, (8) ex-smokers not vaping. The analyses focused first on describing changes between groups from W1 to W2. Second, transition outcomes were assessed based on changes in smoking and vaping between W1 and W2. Transitions focused on smoking were: no change in smoking (continued smoking at the same frequency), decreased smoking, increased smoking, discontinued smoking, relapsed (ex-smokers at W1 who were smoking at W2). Transitions focused on vaping were: initiated vaping, switched from smoking to vaping. Overall, this study found that the vast majority of smokers were smoking 18 months later. Non-daily smokers were more likely than daily smokers to have discontinued smoking (p &lt, 0.0001) and to have switched to exclusive vaping (p = 0.034). Exclusive non-daily smokers were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have initiated vaping (p = 0.04). Among all W1 daily smokers, there were no differences in discontinued smoking between daily smokers who vaped (concurrent users) and exclusive daily smokers, however, concurrent users were more likely than exclusive daily smokers to have decreased to non-daily smoking (p &lt, 0.001) or to have switched to vaping by W2 (p &lt, 0.001). Among all W1 non-daily smokers, there were no significant differences in increased smoking or discontinued smoking between concurrent users or exclusive smokers. Most ex-smokers remained abstinent from smoking, and there was no difference in relapse back to smoking between those who vaped and those who did not.

BACKGROUND: Use of nicotine vaping products (NVPs) to replace smoking is often influenced by perceived harmfulness of these products relative to smoking. This study aimed to identify factors that conjointly influenced NVP relative harm perception among smokers and ex-smokers. METHODS: Data (n=11,838) from adult smokers and ex-smokers (quit

Background The EUREST-PLUS ITC Europe surveys aim to evaluate the impact of the European Union’s Tobacco Products Directive (EU TPD) implementation within the context of the WHO FCTC. This article describes the methodology of the 2016 (Wave 1) and 2018 (Wave 2) International Tobacco Control 6 European (6E) Country Survey in Germany, Greece, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Spain; the England arm of the 2016 (Wave 1) and 2018 (Wave 2) ITC 4 Country Smoking and Vaping (4CV) Survey; and the 2016 (Wave 10) and 2017 (Wave 11) ITC Netherlands (NL) Survey. All three ITC surveys covering a total of eight countries are prospective cohort studies with nationally representative samples of smokers. Methods In the three surveys across the eight countries, the recruited respondents were cigarette smokers who smoked at least monthly, and were aged 18 and older. At each survey wave, eligible cohort members from the previous waves were retained, regardless of smoking status, and dropouts were replaced by a replenishment sample. Results Retention rates between the two waves of the ITC 6E Survey by country were 70.5% for Germany, 41.3% for Greece, 35.7% for Hungary, 45.6% for Poland, 54.4% for Romania and 71.3% for Spain. The retention rate for England between ITC 4CV1 and ITC 4CV2 was 39.1%; the retention rates for the ITC Netherlands Survey were 76.6% at Wave 10 (2016) and 80.9% at Wave 11 (2017). Conclusion The ITC sampling design and data collection methods in these three ITC surveys allow analyses to examine prospectively the impact of policy environment changes on the use of cigarettes and other tobacco products in each country, to make comparisons across the eight countries.

Introduction To test whether urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking have independent predictive value for quit attempts and short-term quit success over and above the Heaviness of Smoking Index (HSI). Aims and Methods Data were from the International Tobacco Control Four Country Smoking and Vaping Wave 1 (2016) and Wave 2 (2018) surveys. About 3661 daily smokers (daily vapers excluded) provided data in both waves. A series of multivariable logistic regression models assessed the association of each dependence measure on odds of making a quit attempt and at least 1-month smoking abstinence. Results Of the 3661 participants, 1594 (43.5%) reported a quit attempt. Of those who reported a quit attempt, 546 (34.9%) reported short-term quit success. Fully adjusted models showed that making quit attempts was associated with lower HSI (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.73 to 0.90, p < .001), stronger urges to smoke (aOR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.04 to 1.20, p = .002), and higher perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.84, p = .008). Lower HSI (aOR = 0.57, 95% CI = 0.40 to 0.87, p < .001), weaker urges to smoke (aOR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.76 to 0.95, p = .006), and lower perceived addiction to smoking (aOR = 0.55, 95% CI = 0.32 to 0.91, p = .021) were associated with greater odds of short-term quit success. In both cases, overall R2 was around 0.5. Conclusions The two additional dependence measures were complementary to HSI adding explanatory power to smoking cessation models, but variance explained remains small. Implications Strength of urges to smoke and perceived addiction to smoking may significantly improve prediction of cessation attempts and short-term quit success over and above routinely assessed demographic variables and the HSI. Stratification of analyses by age group is recommended because the relationship between dependence measures and outcomes differs significantly for younger (aged 18–39) compared to older (aged older than 40) participants. Even with the addition of these extra measures of dependence, the overall variance explained in predicting smoking cessation outcomes remains very low. These measures can only be thought of as assessing some aspects of dependence. Current understanding of the factors that ultimately determine quit success remains limited.

Introduction There is limited research on the role of flavors in nicotine vaping products (NVPs) in relation to smoking. We examined patterns of flavor use in NVPs in relation to progression toward quitting. Aims and Methods Data come from 886 concurrent users of NVPs (at least weekly) and cigarettes who were first surveyed in 2016 and then successfully recontacted in 2018 as part of the ITC 4CV Surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, England, and the United States. Participants were asked about their main vaping flavor categorized as: (1) tobacco or unflavored, (2) menthol or mint flavored, and (3) “sweet” flavors (eg, fruit or candy). We examined whether flavor was associated with progression toward quitting smoking between survey years. Results Overall, 11.1% of baseline concurrent users quit smoking by 2018. Compared with users of tobacco flavors, those vaping “sweet” flavors were more likely to quit smoking between surveys (13.8% vs. 9.6%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 1.61, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01–2.58, p < .05), but those using menthol flavors were no more likely to quit smoking (8.3% vs. 9.6%, aOR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.43–1.47, p = .69). Among those who had quit smoking in 2018, 52.0% were still vaping, which was lower than the 65.8% among continuing smokers (aOR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.39–0.92, p = .02). Sweet flavor users were no more likely to continue vaping compared with tobacco flavor users, either for those continuing smoking or those having quit smoking by 2018. There was a net shift away from tobacco flavor among those who continued to vape at follow-up. Conclusions Use of fruit and other sweet flavored e-liquids is positively related to smokers’ transition away from cigarettes. Implications With multiple jurisdictions considering limiting or banning the sale of flavored NVPs, it is important to consider how such policies may impact smokers using NVPs to transition away from cigarette smoking. Our results indicate that vapers who used sweet flavors were more likely to transition away from cigarette smoking and quit cigarette use, at least in the short term, compared with those who used tobacco or unflavored NVPs. Randomized clinical trials are needed to establish if the observed association between use of flavored e-liquids and smoking cessation is due to self-selection or is truly causal.

BACKGROUND: Although evidence shows that co-use of cigarettes and cannabis is common, there is little research examining if co-use patterns vary depending on the regulatory environment for cannabis. This study examined patterns of co-use and perceptions of relative harm among cigarette smokers in four countries with different histories, and at different stages of cannabis legalization. METHODS: Data are from the 2018 International Tobacco Control 4CV Survey and included 10,035 adult cigarette smokers from Canada, United States (US), Australia, and England. At the time of the survey, Canada and the US had relatively more permissive cannabis regulations compared to Australia and England. RESULTS: Among this sample of 10,035 cigarette smokers, Canada had the highest rate of cannabis co-use in the last 12 months (36.3%), followed by the US (29.1%), England (21.6%), and Australia (21.4%). Among past 12 month co-users (n=3,134), the US (40.2%) and Canada (35.2%) had the highest rates of daily cannabis use, followed by smokers in England (26.3%) and Australia (21.7%); Australian co-users had the highest rate of infrequent (

This paper describes the methods of the Wave 1 (2018) International Tobacco Control (ITC) Japan Survey. The respondents were adults aged 20 years and older in one of four user groups: (1) cigarette-only smokers who smoked at least monthly and used heated tobacco products (HTPs) not at all or less than weekly, (2) HTP-only users who used HTPs at least weekly and smoked cigarettes not at all or less than monthly, (3) cigarette-HTP dual users who smoked at least monthly and used HTPs at least weekly, and (4) non-users who had never smoked or who smoked less than monthly and used HTPs less than weekly. Eligible respondents were recruited by a commercial survey firm from its online panel. Respondents were allocated proportionally to sample strata based on demographic, geographic, and user type specifications benchmarked to a national reference. Survey weights, accounting for smoking/HTP use status, sex, age, education, and geography, were calibrated to benchmarks from a nationally representative survey in Japan. Response rate was 45.1% and cooperation rate was 96.3%. The total sample size was 4615 (3288 cigarette smokers, 164 exclusive HTP users, 549 cigarette-HTP dual users, and 614 non-users). The 2018 ITC Japan Survey sampling design and survey data collection methods will allow analyses to examine prospectively the use of cigarettes and HTPs in Japan and factors associated with the use of both products and of transitions between them.

One of the important features of survey data is the availability of auxiliary information from the survey population. Auxiliary population information may be available from census enumerations or administrative records. It could also be obtained from unusual sources such as satellite images for natural resource inventory surveys or a previous survey from the same population. Auxiliary information can be utilized at the survey design stage to facilitate frame construction, stratification, clustering and unequal probability selection of units. Calibration methods address issues related to the use of auxiliary information at the estimation stage of survey data analysis.

Resampling and replication methods are computer intensive techniques for mitigating the analytic burden of data users through structured and often Monte Carlo simulation-based procedures.

This chapter covers two important aspects of modern survey sampling theory and methods: (i) A unified estimation theory using the first and the second order inclusion probabilities under an arbitrary probability sampling design; (ii) Sampling procedures for selecting units with unequal probabilities. The specific sampling procedures and estimation methods discussed in Chaps. 2 and 3 can be viewed as part of the general theory and methods under the unified framework.

In this chapter, we first provide a brief review of Bayesian approaches to finite population inference. We then present Bayesian empirical likelihood methods for the finite population mean as well as general parameters defined through estimating functions. The focus is on how to formulate the inferential procedures under the Bayesian framework, and discussions of design-based frequentist properties of Bayesian point estimators and credible intervals.

This chapter provides an introduction to the model-based prediction approach to survey sampling and model-assisted estimation in the presence of auxiliary population information. The two approaches, model-based prediction and design-based estimation, are conceptually different and have been the subject of debate among survey statisticians. The general model-assisted framework, however, enables the strength of plausible models to be built into design-based inferences for survey samples.

Single-stage probability sampling methods are used when a complete list of all population units is available and the list is used as the sampling frame for the probability selection of units for the survey sample. The sampling units are the same as the individual population units. The term single-stage distinguishes this kind of sampling from two-stage or multi-stage sampling methods to be discussed in Chap. 3, where the first stage sampling units are clusters.

This chapter discusses sampling designs and related issues for conducting household surveys using area frames and face-to-face interviews, through a case study from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) China Survey. It reveals some of the challenges faced by large scale household surveys with stratified multi-stage sampling designs and ambitious research plans with lengthy questionnaires, and provides some useful tips and tools for conducting such surveys.

In this chapter, the units of a finite survey population form a network, potentially linked to one another in a way that facilitates sampling and observation; this can be especially useful when the sampling frame exists only partially. For example, members of a population of intravenous drug users can be sampled through the acquaintanceship networks of users who come to a safe injection site; in this case, two members of the population are linked if they are acquainted. For another example, wildlife observations are often carried out in randomly selected areas together with neighbouring areas linked to the initially selected areas through proximity. Network surveys have much in common with indirect sampling procedures, wherein members of a population without a current frame can be surveyed through sampling from a related listed population.

Publisher Summary Likelihood-based estimation methods in survey sampling do not follow as special cases from classical parametric likelihood inferences. The only randomization is induced by the probability sampling selection of units. While intervals based on NAs are clearly inappropriate, the EL interval maintains the same desirable performance observed under simple random sampling, with the lower tail error rates close to the nominal value and larger LB for all cases considered. One of the major difficulties for the EL inferences under general unequal probability sampling designs is to obtain an informative EL function for the given sample. The likelihood depends necessarily on the sampling design and a complete specification of the joint probability function of the sample is usually not feasible under any without replacement sampling. Raking ratio estimation can be viewed as a special application of the calibration method, where the auxiliary information is in the form of known marginal totals of a contingency table of two or more dimensions.