1. Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty
- Author
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Robert B. Jackson, Josep G. Canadell, Jinfeng Chang, Eric A. Davidson, Akihiko Ito, Philippe Ciais, Almut Arneth, Rona Thompson, Stefan Olin, Shufen Pan, Bowen Zhang, Chaoqun Lu, Sönke Zaehle, Changhui Peng, Jia Yang, Stefan Gerber, Nicolas Vuichard, Sebastian Lienert, Palmira Messina, Fortunat Joos, Eri Saikawa, Wilfried Winiwarter, Hanqin Tian, Rongting Xu, Auburn University (AU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Maryland Department of the Environment (MDE), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières (UQTR), Emory University [Atlanta, GA], Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, USC Viterbi School of Engineering, University of Southern California (USC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), and Lund University [Lund]
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Time Factors ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate Change ,Nitrous Oxide ,Climate change ,Land cover ,Atmospheric sciences ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,7. Clean energy ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Greenhouse Gases ,Soil ,Grazing ,Environmental Chemistry ,Industrial Development ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,2. Zero hunger ,[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere ,Global and Planetary Change ,Air Pollutants ,Ecology ,Uncertainty ,Biosphere ,Nitrous oxide ,15. Life on land ,Models, Theoretical ,Manure ,Deposition (aerosol physics) ,chemistry ,13. Climate action ,Soil water ,Environmental science - Abstract
Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the pre-industrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15% and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.
- Published
- 2018
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