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This study presents an ex post evaluation of the accuracy of long-term macroeconomic forecasts presented by economics researchers. The economic growth and inflation forecasts for the next ten years are biased upward. Economic growth forecasts by academic researchers are less upwardly biased than those by professional forecasters in private institutes and that by the government. However, the upward bias of academic researchers specializing in macroeconomics and economic growth is larger than those in the other research fields. These results indicate that long-term economic forecasting involves significant uncertainty, even for economists.

This study examines the productivity of working from home (WFH) practices during the COVID‐19 pandemic. The results reveal that the mean WFH productivity relative to working at the usual workplace was about 60%–70%, and it was lower for employees and firms that started WFH practice only after the spread of the COVID‐19 pandemic. However, there was a large dispersion of WFH productivity, both by individual and firm characteristics. Highly educated and high‐wage employees tended to exhibit a small reduction in WFH productivity. The results obtained from the employee and employer surveys were generally consistent with each other. [ FROM AUTHOR] Copyright of Economic Inquiry is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full . (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Using original survey data linked with the financial statements of Japanese listed firms, this study presents an ex post evaluation of firms’ ex ante subjective uncertainty. Ex ante forecast uncert...

Previous studies outlined the correlation of adverse effects of breakfast skipping with cognitive function. However, the majority of these studies have focused on the short-term effects; to date, the long-term effect of breakfast skipping on cognitive function among older adults remains unclear. In this prospective cohort study of 712 older adults (mean age, 70.8 years), breakfast skipping was defined as skipping breakfast one or more times per week, and declines in cognitive score was defined as decreases in Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of two or more in the observed period. During follow-up (median, 31 months), 135 of 712 participants developed declines in cognitive score. Poisson regression models revealed that the incidence rate for declines in cognitive score was significantly higher in breakfast skipper (n = 29) than breakfast eaters (n = 683) [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 2.10; 95% CI, 1.28-3.44]. Additional propensity score adjustments related to breakfast skipping from baseline parameters (age, gender, smoking and drinking status, BMI, household income, educated level, depressive symptoms, hypertension, diabetes, sleep medication, physical activity, caloric intake, and baseline cognition) produced consistent results (IRR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.33-3.68). Sensitivity analysis, when the cut-off value of decreases in MMSE score was changed to three points, suggested a significant and stronger association (IRR, 3.03; 95% CI, 1.72-5.35). Regarding daily intakes of food groups, breakfast skippers consumed a significantly lower amount of vegetables, fruits, and fish than breakfast eaters. In conclusion, our findings suggest that breakfast skipping is longitudinally associated with declines in cognitive score among older adults.

Abstract Urea (Ua) is produced in DNA as the result of oxidative damage to thymine and guanine. It was previously reported that Klenow fragment (Kf) exo− incorporated dATP opposite Ua, and that DNA polymerase β was blocked by Ua. We report here the following nucleotide incorporations opposite Ua by various DNA polymerases: DNA polymerase α, dATP and dGTP (dATP > dGTP); DNA polymerase δ, dATP; DNA polymerase ζ, dATP; Kf exo−, dATP; Sulfolobus solfataricus P2 DNA polymerase IV (Dpo4), dGTP and dATP (dGTP > dATP); and DNA polymerase η, dCTP, dGTP, dATP, and dTTP (dCTP > dGTP > dATP > dTTP). DNA polymerases β and ε were blocked by Ua. Elongation by DNA polymerases δ and ζ stopped after inserting dATP opposite Ua. Importantly, the elongation efficiency to full-length beyond Ua using DNA polymerase η and Dpo4 were almost the same as that of natural DNA. Graphical abstract

This study, using monthly micro data on firms’ forecasted and realized production quantities, presents new evidence of the uncertainty of production forecasts. Forecast errors are heterogeneous among individual manufacturers. Firms operating in the information and communications technology-related industries, firms producing investment goods, and smaller firms exhibit greater forecast uncertainty. Forecast uncertainty is greater in the contractionary phases of the business cycle. The uncertainty measures that are calculated from the micro data can predict macroeconomic fluctuations. Additionally, the explanatory power of quantitative uncertainty measures is stronger than that of qualitative measures.

This study presents the empirical findings on cross-sectional dispersion and time-series volatility of TFPQ and TFPR using high-frequency establishment-level panel data from three narrowly defined service industries. The within-industry dispersion of TFPQ is not larger than that of TFPR, and this finding differs from past studies on the manufacturing sector. Productivity dispersion is smaller when aggregated industry-level productivity is higher, and vice versa. Service producers with highly volatile productivity are less productive in both TFPQ and TFPR.

This study, using Japanese firm-level data, presents empirical findings on innovation in the service sector and the role of patents and trade secrets. Service firms have fewer product innovations than manufacturing firms do, but the productivity of innovative service firms is very high. Service firms have a low propensity to hold patents, but their holding of trade secrets is comparable to that of manufacturing firms. Product/service innovations have positive relationships with holding patents and trade secrets in both industries, but a positive association of process innovations is found only with holding trade secrets in the manufacturing industry.

Five novel vitamin D analogues ( 2a , 2b , 3a , 3b and 4 ) bearing an aromatic side chain have been designed and synthesized in a convergent manner. The requisite CD-ring synthons ( 10a–c ) were prepared from C22 aldehyde ( 5 ) using four- or five-step procedures. Using turbo-Grignard reagents allowed aromatic side chains with a polar functional moiety to be installed in a single step with excellent yields. A preliminary biological evaluation using bovine thymus vitamin D receptor (VDR) suggested that incorporating a carboxylic acid instead of the C25-hydroxy group had a positive effect on the VDR affinity compared with the corresponding esters.

Uncertainty over the social security and tax system is often pointed out as a source of stagnant household consumption at the aggregate level. This study presents empirical evidence on this issue by using original survey data of Japanese individuals. The results indicate that individuals are highly uncertain over the future course of social security and tax policies. The policy uncertainty is associated with an orientation toward saving, and the relationship is stronger for low‐income individuals. These results suggest that improving long‐term predictability in the social security and tax system may contribute to weakening households' saving orientation.

Aim Clinical evaluations are generally used to verify the effectiveness of detoxification treatments for alcohol dependence, but new objective biomarkers are essential for accurate diagnosis. We aim to assess the accuracy of % carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in a cohort of Japanese patients admitted to a psychiatric hospital specializing in alcohol dependence. In addition, we investigated the kinetics of %CDT during alcohol moderation or cessation. Methods The study cohort consisted of 126 alcohol-dependent patients. The levels of serum %CDT were assessed by the N Latex CDT direct immuno-nephelometric assay. Results Alcohol consumption was significantly correlated with %CDT. The only independent predictive factor of alcohol consumption was %CDT, with glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score proving insufficient. The cut-off value of %CDT was 1.9 % with high sensitivity and specificity in detecting alcohol abstinence beyond 30 days (68.6% sensitivity, 91.8% specificity) and excessive alcohol drinking (77.9% sensitivity, 77.1% specificity). %CDT levels were significantly decreased at 30-days of abstinence when compared with baseline. Notably, %CDT values were significantly changed even in the light alcohol drinking cohort (P = 0.0009), whereas GGT levels were not significantly changed. Conclusions Our results indicate that %CDT is an accurate and specific biomarker of alcohol consumption and is useful in detecting alcohol abstinence even in a low alcohol intake patient cohort. These results suggest that %CDT may be a useful objective biomarker of chronic alcohol abuse during clinical treatment for alcoholism. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Background Maintenance of instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) and social role (SR) is crucial to keep independent life because the decline in SR and IADL was a significant predictor of dependence in basic ADL in later. The independent effect of physical and cultural leisure activities and their effect modification on the IADL remains unknown. Methods We prospectively observed 3241 elderly with intact IADL at baseline for 5 years. Higher level functional capacity such as IADL and SR was assessed using the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology Index of competence (TMIG index). Results The mean age of the participants was 72.3 years (standard deviation 5.1), and 46.9% were male, and 90.9% of them received a follow-up assessment. Of the participants, 10.4% developed an IADL decline. Engagement in leisure physical activity was associated with a significantly lower risk of IADL decline (adjusted risk ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.60 to 0.89), and cultural leisure activity was also associated with lower risk of IADL decline (adjusted risk ratio, 0.77; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.95) independent of potential confounders. We also found significant and positive interaction between physical and cultural leisure activities at risk for IADL decline (P = 0.024) and SR decline (P = 0.004). Conclusions We found an independent association of physical and cultural leisure activities with a lower risk for functional decline in IADL and SR with positive interaction. Combined engagement in physical and cultural activities may effectively prevent from IADL decline and SR decline.

This study presents evidence on the relationship between employer-provided training and productivity. The important contributions of this study are its comparison of the relative contribution of training to productivity and wages and its distinction between manufacturing and service firms. The results indicate that training significantly contributes to the labor productivity, particularly for firms in the service sector. The elasticities of productivity and wages to training stock are similar in size, meaning that the returns to firms’ training investments are shared by their workers in proportion to the wage share of the value-added.

This study uses data from firm surveys to present new findings on firms’ strategies for price/quality competition and on the relationship between competition strategy and various firm characteristics, including profitability and productivity. First, the results indicate that a relatively large number of firms adopt a quality competition strategy, particularly firms operating in the service industries. Second, firms adopting a quality competition strategy tend to have highly educated employees, invest in intangible assets, such as R&D and advertising, and show a higher probability of innovating. Third, the profitability and productivity of firms adopting a quality competition strategy is higher than that of firms adopting a price competition strategy, although the difference in productivity according to competition strategy should be interpreted with caution.

This study, based on an original survey of Japanese firms, analyzes the productivity of firms that used relief policy measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. The productivity of firms using these relief measures was lower than that of non-user firms prior to the pandemic, suggesting that inefficient firms have been affected seriously. The result cautions against the excessive and prolonged relief policies.

Manufacturing firms in advanced countries are servitizing alongside the deepening of the global value chain. In this respect, “factoryless goods producers” (FGPs) are attracting attention from economics researchers. This study, using firm-level data, presents findings on Japanese FGPs. In this study, FGPs are defined as non-manufacturing firms that outsource manufacturing processes entirely to other firms. Although the large majority of FGPs are classified in ICT or wholesale industries, some FGPs belong to retail or services industries. FGPs are larger and have higher productivity and wages compared with non-FGPs, invest more intensively in intangible assets, including research and development, and have relatively larger headquarters functions.

This paper reports data from the author's original survey of Japanese companies concerning the distributions on subjective uncertainties over economic policies and their effects on business operations. Companies perceive uncertainty over the future course of certain economic policies, such as the social security system and international trade policy. Policy uncertainty regarding the tax system, trade policy and environmental policy can have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and overseas activities. According to the companies’ subjective probability distributions on their sales outlook, manufacturers face greater uncertainty than non-manufacturing companies do. Uncertainty over economic policies substantially reduces the expected sales growth rate.

This study, using data from an original survey covering both public and private firms in Japan, presents evidence on uncertainties over economic policies, their effects on managerial decisions, and firms’ evaluations of the government’s numerical targets related to economic policies. The results indicate that Japanese firms perceive uncertainty over certain economic policies, such as the social security system, tax policy, fiscal expenditure, and international trade policy. Policy uncertainties have substantial effects on managerial decisions, especially on equipment investment and hiring of regular employees. Medium- to long-term numerical targets related to the government’s economic policies are perceived to be difficult to achieve.

Background: Several studies have suggested that periodontal disease can exacerbate the pro-inflammatory status of the brain. Tooth loss is one of the alternative evaluation indices of periodontal disease. There are few data on the relationship between tooth loss and memory impairment, depending on the apolipoprotein E (APOE) ɛ4 genotype. Objective: To determine if tooth loss is associated with mild memory impairment (MMI) and if this association is modified by the presence of the APOE ɛ4 allele. Methods: A nested case-control study was conducted from 2007 to 2012 in Japan. Five hundred and thirty-seven Japanese subjects aged 65 years and over who were cognitively intact at baseline were analyzed. MMI at follow-up was evaluated. Results: The median number of teeth at baseline was significantly lower in MMI participants (n = 179) than in controls (n = 358) (MMI: median 21.0, interquartile range 10.0–25.0 versus controls: 24.0, 14.0–27.0). After adjustment for demographics, vascular risk factors, and APOE ɛ4 allele, the multivariate adjusted odds ratio (OR) of ≤8 teeth was 1.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13–3.44) compared to 25–32 teeth. Participants with both the presence of at least 1 APOE ɛ4 allele and ≤8 teeth had a higher risk of MMI compared with those with neither (OR, 2.82; 95% CI, 1.15–6.91). Those with either risk factor alone did not have a higher risk of MMI. Conclusions: A lower number of teeth is related to risk of MMI. This may be primarily true for those individuals with an APOE ɛ4 allele.

This study presents new evidence on firms' views about the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics on their business and employment, using data from an original survey of more than 3,000 Japanese firms. The focus of this study is on technology-skill complementarity. Firms with highly educated employees tend to expect positive impacts of AI-related technologies on their business, and vice versa. Larger firms and firms that engage in global markets tend to have positive views about the impacts of AI-related technologies. (JEL O33, J23, J24, M15)

This study, using data from a representative quarterly business survey in Japan, constructs measures of business uncertainty, presents empirical findings about the time-series properties of business uncertainty measures, and analyzes the relationship between these measures and investments. The results show, first, that business uncertainty heightened at the time of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, but the effect of an increase in the consumption tax rate on business uncertainty was small. Second, manufacturing and small companies tend to face higher business uncertainty than non-manufacturing and large companies. Third, we detect a negative association between business uncertainty and investments.

Cataract surgery improves visual acuity and drastically increases the capacity for light reception to the retina. Although previous studies suggested that both light exposure and visual acuity were associated with cognitive function, the relationships between cataract surgery, visual acuity, and cognitive function have not been evaluated in large populations. In this cross-sectional study, we measured cognitive function using the Mini-Mental State Examination and best-corrected visual acuity in pseudophakic (previous cataract surgery) and phakic (no previous cataract surgery) elderly individuals. Of 945 participants (mean age 71.7 years), 166 (17.6%) had pseudophakia and 317 (33.5%) had impaired cognitive function (score ≤26). The pseudophakic group showed significantly better visual acuity than the phakic group (p = 0.003) and lower age-adjusted odds ratio (ORs) for cognitive impairment (OR 0.66; p = 0.038). Consistently, in multivariate logistic regression models, after adjusting for confounding factors, including visual acuity and socioeconomic status, ORs for cognitive impairment were significantly lower in the pseudophakic group than in the phakic group (OR 0.64; 95% confidence interval 0.43-0.96; p = 0.031). This association remained significant in sensitivity analysis, excluding participants with low cognitive score ≤23 (n = 36). In conclusion, in a general elderly population, prevalence of cognitive impairment was significantly lower in pseudophakic individuals independently of visual acuity. The association was also independent of several major causes of cognitive impairment such as aging, gender, obesity, socioeconomic status, hypertension, diabetes, sleep disturbances, depressive symptoms, and physical inactivity.

Both visual impairment and cognitive impairment are essential factors that determine the quality of life in the aged population. The aim of this study was to determine if a correlation existed between visual acuity and cognitive impairment in an elderly Japanese population. The Fujiwara-kyo Eye Study was a cross-sectional study of individuals aged ≥68 years who lived in Nara Prefecture of Japan. Participants underwent ophthalmological examinations and cognitive function test. A mild visual impairment was defined as having a best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) >0.2 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (logMAR) units in the better eye. Cognitive impairment was defined as having a Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score of ≤23 points. A total to 2818 individuals completed the examinations. The mean age of the participants was 76.3 ± 4.8 years (mean ± standard deviation). The mean BCVA of the better eye was −0.02 ± 0.13 logMAR units and 6.6% subjects were classified as being mildly visually impaired. The mean MMSE score was 27.3 ± 2.3 and 5.7% subjects were classified as being cognitively impaired. The proportion of subjects with cognitive or moderate visual impairment increased with age, and there was a significant correlation between the visual acuity and MMSE score (r = −0.10, p

Japan is known for its low level of female engagement in senior positions. This study analyzes the determinants of the presence and number of female directors among Japanese companies. We find that, first, listed and long-established companies, subsidiaries of parent companies, and unionized companies tend not to have female directors. Second, owner-managed companies are likely to have female directors and CEOs. Third, we find no evidence of tokenism among Japanese companies, whereby female-led companies do not appoint additional females as directors. To increase the number of female executives and directors substantially, creation of new businesses is essential.

Headquarters play an important role in modern companies, but the downsizing of headquarters is often advocated as a way to improve organizational efficiency. Using a panel of Japanese companies for the period 2001–2011, this paper empirically analyzes the determinants of the size of headquarters functions and their relationship with productivity. The cross-sectional dispersion of the size of headquarters functions is very large even within an industry. The complication of businesses leads to smaller headquarters. Headquarters functions contribute positively to a company's TFP. Headquarters functions and ICT network have a complementary role for productivity.

Human telomere DNA (Htelo) and telomeric repeat-containing RNA (TERRA) are integral telomere components containing the short DNA repeats d(TTAGGG) and RNA repeats r(UUAGGG), respectively. Htelo and TERRA form G-quadruplexes, but the biological significance of their G-quadruplex formation in telomeres is unknown. Compounds that selectively bind G-quadruplex DNA and RNA are useful for understanding the functions of each G-quadruplex. Here we report that engineered Arg-Gly-Gly repeat (RGG) domains of translocated in liposarcoma containing only Phe (RGGF) and Tyr (RGGY) specifically bind and stabilize the G-quadruplexes of Htelo and TERRA, respectively. Moreover, RGGF inhibits trimethylation of both histone H4 at lysine 20 and histone H3 at lysine 9 at telomeres, while RGGY inhibits only H3 trimethylation in living cells. These findings indicate that G-quadruplexes of Htelo and TERRA have distinct functions in telomere histone methylation.

This study presents evidence on the impact of outside directors on firms’ investment behavior and performance with a focus on the recent quasi-natural experiment that rapidly increased the number of outside directors in listed firms. Using a panel of Japanese firms, we compare listed and unlisted firms and conduct instrumental variable estimations to examine causal relationships. The results indicate that the rapid increase in the number of outside directors among listed firms did not promote active investments or risk-taking behavior. In addition, it had no significant impacts on the profitability and productivity of the firms.

Purpose To determine whether there is a significant association between prior cataract surgery and cognitive function in an elderly Japanese cohort. Setting Nara Medical University, Nara, Japan. Design The Fujiwara-kyo Eye Study was a cross-sectional epidemiological study. Methods The subjects were ≥ 68-years who lived in the Nara Prefecture and responded to recruitment notices. All of the subjects received comprehensive ophthalmological examinations, and answered questionnaires on their socio-demographic and medical history including prior cataract surgery. The association between prior cataract surgery and cognitive function was determined. Results A total of the 2764 subjects whose mean age was 76.3±4.8 years (±standard deviation) was studied. Of these, 668 individuals (24.2%) had undergone cataract surgery. Of these, 150 (5.4%) had dementia as determined by the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤23, and 877 individuals (31.7%) had mild cognitive impairment (MCI; MMSE score 24–26). The subjects who had prior cataract surgery had significantly lower odds ratio (OR) of having MCI (OR = 0.78, 95% confidence interval; CI 0.64–0.96, P = 0.019) than those who had not had cataract surgery after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, education, hypertension, diabetes, depression, and history of stroke. The OR was still lower when the visual acuity was also added to the adjusted factors (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.64–0.97, P = 0.025). However, prior cataract surgery did not contribute significantly to the low OR for dementia. Conclusions Cataract surgery may play a role in reducing the risk of developing MCI independently of visual acuity but not for dementia.

Context: In contrast with randomized controlled trials, observational studies have suggested that physiological levels of melatonin are reduced in patients with dementia or depression, but the relationship has not been evaluated in large populations. Objective: The objective was to determine the relationships between physiological levels of melatonin and cognitive function and depressive symptoms. Design and Participants: A cohort of 1105 community-dwelling elderly individuals was enrolled in this cross-sectional study (mean age, 71.8 ± 7.1 y). Measures: Urinary 6-sulfatoxymelatonin excretion (UME) and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE; n = 935) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS; n = 1097) scores were measured as indices of physiological melatonin levels, cognitive function, and depressive symptoms, respectively. Results: With increases in UME quartiles, the prevalence of cognitive impairment (MMSE score ≤ 26) and depressed mood (GDS score ≥ 6) significantly decreased (P for trend = .003 and .012, respectively). In multivariate logistic regression models, after adjusting for confounders such as age, gender, socioeconomic status, physical activity, and sleep/wake cycles, higher UME levels were significantly associated with lower odds ratios (ORs) for cognitive impairment and depressed mood (ORs: Q1 = 1.00; Q2 = 0.88 and 0.76; Q3 = 0.66 and 0.85; Q4 = 0.67 and 0.53; P for trend = .023 and .033, respectively). In addition, the highest UME group showed a significantly lower OR for depressed mood than the lowest UME group (Q4 vs Q1: OR, 0.53; 95% confidence interval, 0.32–0.89; P = .033). UME levels above the median value were significantly associated with a lower OR for cognitive impairment, even after further adjustment for depressive symptoms (OR = 0.74; 95% confidence interval, 0.55–0.99; P = .043). Conclusions: Significant associations of higher physiological melatonin levels with lower prevalence of cognitive impairment and depressed mood were revealed in a large general elderly population. The association between physiological melatonin levels and cognitive function was independent of depressive symptoms.