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Ocean currents are a key driver of plankton dispersal across the oceanic basins. However, species specific temperature constraints may limit the plankton dispersal. We propose a methodology to estimate the connectivity pathways and timescales for plankton species with given constraints on temperature tolerances, by combining Lagrangian modeling with networktheory. We demonstrate application of two types of temperature constraints: thermal niche and adaptation potential and compare it to the surface water connectivity between sample stations in the Atlantic Ocean. We find that non-constrained passive particles representative of a plankton species can connect all the stations within three years at the surface with pathways mostly along the major ocean currents. However, under thermal constraints, only a subset of stations can establish connectivity. Connectivity time increases marginally under these constraints, suggesting that plankton can keep within their favorable thermal conditions by advecting via slightly longer paths. Effect of advection depth on connectivity is observed to be sensitive to the width of the thermal constraints, along with decreasing flow speeds with depth and possible changes in pathways.

Using a combination of multi-directional SAR and TIR measurements, the Harmony Earth Explorer 10 mission candidate will provide high resolution simultaneous measurements of surface stress, surface currents SST and wave spectra over oceans, 3-D deformation vectors over solid Earth, and time-series of surface elevation changes over volcanic areas and land ice masses. This will serve a series of science objectives aimed at better understating multi-scale processed and feedbacks in the Earth System.

The observational network around the North Atlantic has improved significantly over the last few decades with subsurface profiling floats and satellite observations, and the recent efforts to monitor the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). These have shown decadal timescale changes across the North Atlantic including in heat content, heat transport and the circulation. However there are still significant gaps in the observational coverage. Ocean reanalyses integrate the observations with a dynamically consistent ocean model and can be used to understand the observed changes. However the ability of the reanalyses to represent the dynamics must also be assessed. We use an ensemble of global ocean reanalyses to examine the time mean state and interannual‐decadal variability of the North Atlantic ocean since 1993. We assess how well the reanalyses are able to capture processes and whether any understanding can be gained. In particular we examine aspects of the circulation including convection, AMOC and gyre strengths, and transports. We find that reanalyses show some consistency, in particular showing a weakening of the subpolar gyre and AMOC at 50oN from the mid‐90s until at least 2009 (related to decadal variability in previous studies), a strengthening and then weakening of the AMOC at 26.5oN since 2000, and impacts of circulation changes on transports. These results agree with model studies and the AMOC observations at 26.5oN since 2005. We also see less spread across the ensemble in AMOC strength and mixed layer depth, suggesting improvements as the observational coverage has improved.

This paper analyzes the relationship between deep sedimentary fluxes and ocean current vertical velocities in an offshore area of the Ionian Sea, the deepest basin of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Sediment trap data are collected at 500m and 2800m depth in two successive moorings covering the period September 1999–May 2001. A tight coupling is observed between the upper and deep traps and the estimated particle sinking rates are more than 200mday−1. The current vertical velocity field is computed from a 1/16 ×1/16 Ocean General Circulation Model simulation and from the wind stress curl. Current vertical velocities are larger and more variable than Ekman vertical velocities, yet the general patterns are alike. Current vertical velocities are generally smaller than 1mday−1: we therefore exclude a direct effect of downward velocities in determining high sedimentation rates. However we find that upward velocities in the subsurface layers of the water column are positively correlated with deep particle fluxes. We thus hypothesize that upwelling would produce an increase in upper ocean nutrient levels – thus stimulating primary production and grazing – a few weeks before an enhanced vertical flux is found in the sediment traps. High particle sedimentation rates may be attained by means of rapidly sinking fecal pellets produced by gelatinous macro-zooplankton. Other sedimentation mechanisms, such as dust deposition, are also considered in explaining large pulses of deep particle fluxes. The fast sinking rates estimated in this study might be an evidence of the efficiency of the biological pump in sequestering organic carbon from the surface layers of the deep Eastern Mediterranean basins

© Author(s) 2016. The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, sea-ice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, HighResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

We evaluate the mean circulation patterns, water mass distributions, and tropical dynamics of the North and Equatorial Pacific Ocean based on a suite of global ocean-sea ice simulations driven by the CORE-II atmospheric forcing from 1963-2007. The first three moments (mean, standard deviation and skewness) of sea surface height and surface temperature variability are assessed against observations. Large discrepancies are found in the variance and skewness of sea surface height and in the skewness of sea surface temperature. Comparing with the observation, most models underestimate the Kuroshio transport in the Asian Marginal seas due to the missing influence of the unresolved western boundary current and meso-scale eddies. In terms of the Mixed Layer Depths (MLDs) in the North Pacific, the two observed maxima associated with Subtropical Mode Water and Central Mode Water formation coalesce into a large pool of deep MLDs in all participating models, but another local maximum associated with the formation of Eastern Subtropical Mode Water can be found in all models with different magnitudes. The main model bias of deep MLDs results from excessive Subtropical Mode Water formation due to inaccurate representation of the Kuroshio separation and of the associated excessively warm and salty Kuroshio water. Further water mass analysis shows that the North Pacific Intermediate Water can penetrate southward in most models, but its distribution greatly varies among models depending not only on grid resolution and vertical coordinate but also on the model dynamics. All simulations show overall similar large scale tropical current system, but with differences in the structures of the Equatorial Undercurrent. We also confirm the key role of the meridional gradient of the wind stress curl in driving the equatorial transport, leading to a generally weak North Equatorial Counter Current in all models due to inaccurate CORE-II equatorial wind fields. Most models show a larger interior

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) is an endorsed project in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses CMIP6 science questions, investigating the origins and consequences of systematic model biases. It does so by providing a framework for evaluating (including assessment of systematic biases), understanding, and improving ocean, seaice, tracer, and biogeochemical components of climate and earth system models contributing to CMIP6. Among the WCRP Grand Challenges in climate science (GCs), OMIP primarily contributes to the regional sea level change and near-term (climate/decadal) prediction GCs. OMIP provides (a) an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing; and (b) a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) detailing methods for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II (Interannual Forcing) have become the standard methods to evaluate global ocean/seaice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP, High- ResMIP (High Resolution MIP), as well as the ocean/sea-ice OMIP simulations.

Highlights: • Arctic sea ice extent and solid freshwater in 14 CORE-II models are inter-compared. • The models better represent the variability than the mean state. • The September ice extent trend is reasonably represented by the model ensemble mean. • The descending trend of ice thickness is underestimated compared to observations. • The models underestimate the reduction in solid freshwater content in recent years. Abstract: The Arctic Ocean simulated in fourteen global ocean-sea ice models in the framework of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments, phase II (CORE II) is analyzed. The focus is on the Arctic sea ice extent, the solid freshwater (FW) sources and solid freshwater content (FWC). Available observations are used for model evaluation. The variability of sea ice extent and solid FW budget is more consistently reproduced than their mean state in the models. The descending trend of September sea ice extent is well simulated in terms of the model ensemble mean. Models overestimating sea ice thickness tend to underestimate the descending trend of September sea ice extent. The models underestimate the observed sea ice thinning trend by a factor of two. When averaged on decadal time scales, the variation of Arctic solid FWC is contributed by those of both sea ice production and sea ice transport, which are out of phase in time. The solid FWC decreased in the recent decades, caused mainly by the reduction in sea ice thickness. The models did not simulate the acceleration of sea ice thickness decline, leading to an underestimation of solid FWC trend after 2000. The common model behavior, including the tendency to underestimate the trend of sea ice thickness and March sea ice extent, remains to be improved.

A one-dimensional ecosystem numerical model is used to simulate the ecosystem changes that could have occurred in the open ocean areas of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea during the Climatic Optimum interval (9500-6000 B.P., Mercone et al. [Mercone, D., Thomson, J., Croudace, I.W., Siani, G., Pateme, M., Troelstra, S., 2000. Duration of S1, the most recent sapropel in the eastern Mediterranean Sea, as indicated by accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon and geochemical evidence. Paleoceanography 15, 336-347]). In this period the S1 sapropel was deposited. S1 is the most recent sapropel in the succession of organic carbon-rich layers intercalated in normal Neogene sedimentary sequences. Different theories have been invoked in order to explain the deposition of this peculiar layer. Our simulations seem to indicate that the modified thermohaline circulation, supplying oxygen only in the first 500 m of the water column, is responsible for the sapropel deposition when higher productivity is allowed in the euphotic zone. The model shows the importance in this process of bacteria that consume oxygen by decomposing the Particulate Organic Matter (POM) produced in the upper water column. The sinking velocity of POM partially regulates the timescale of the occurrence of anoxia at the bottom and in the whole water column, allowing the relatively rapid onset of sapropel deposition. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

In the framework of the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II), we present an analysis of the representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) in a suite of seventeen global ocean–sea ice models. We focus on the mean, variability and trends of both the ACC and MOC over the 1958–2007 period, and discuss their relationship with the surface forcing. We aim to quantify the degree of eddy saturation and eddy compensation in the models participating in CORE-II, and compare our results with available observations, previous fine-resolution numerical studies and theoretical constraints. Most models show weak ACC transport sensitivity to changes in forcing during the past five decades, and they can be considered to be in an eddy saturated regime. Larger contrasts arise when considering MOC trends, with a majority of models exhibiting significant strengthening of the MOC during the late 20th and early 21st century. Only a few models show a relatively small sensitivity to forcing changes, responding with an intensified eddy-induced circulation that provides some degree of eddy compensation, while still showing considerable decadal trends. Both ACC and MOC interannual variabilities are largely controlled by the Southern Annular Mode (SAM). Based on these results, models are clustered into two groups. Models with constant or two-dimensional (horizontal) specification of the eddy-induced advection coefficient κ show larger ocean interior decadal trends, larger ACC transport decadal trends and no eddy compensation in the MOC. Eddy-permitting models or models with a three-dimensional time varying κ show smaller changes in isopycnal slopes and associated ACC trends, and partial eddy compensation. As previously argued, a constant in time or space κ is responsible for a poor representation of mesoscale eddy effects and cannot properly simulate the sensitivity of the ACC and MOC to ch

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988–2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50°S. Over the 1988–2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200–700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Prognostic simulations of ocean carbon distribution are largely dependent on an adequate representation of physical dynamics. In this work we show that the assimilation of temperature and salinity in a coupled ocean-biogeochemical model significantly improves the reconstruction of the carbonate system variables over the last two decades. For this purpose, we use the NEMO ocean global circulation model, coupled to the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM) in the global PELAGOS configuration. The assimilation of temperature and salinity is included into the coupled ocean-biogeochemical model by using a variational assimilation method. The use of ocean physics data assimilation improves the simulation of alkalinity and dissolved organic carbon against the control run as assessed by comparing with independent time series and gridded datasets. At the global scale, the effects of the assimilation of physical variables in the simulation of pCO2 improves the seasonal cycle in all basins, getting closer to the SOCAT estimates. Biases in the partial pressure of CO2 with respect to data that are evident in the control run are reduced once the physical data assimilation is used. The root mean squared errors in the pCO2 are reduced by up to 30% depending on the ocean basin considered. In addition, we quantify the relative contribution of biological carbon uptake on surface pCO2 by performing another simulation in which biology is neglected in the assimilated run.

Simulation characteristics from eighteen global ocean–sea-ice coupled models are presented with a focus on the mean Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and other related fields in the North Atlantic. These experiments use inter-annually varying atmospheric forcing data sets for the 60-year per- iod from 1948 to 2007 and are performed as contributions to the second phase of the Coordinated Ocean- ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). The protocol for conducting such CORE-II experiments is summa- rized. Despite using the same atmospheric forcing, the solutions show significant differences. As most models also differ from available observations, biases in the Labrador Sea region in upper-ocean potential temperature and salinity distributions, mixed layer depths, and sea-ice cover are identified as contribu- tors to differences in AMOC. These differences in the solutions do not suggest an obvious grouping of the models based on their ocean model lineage, their vertical coordinate representations, or surface salinity restoring strengths. Thus, the solution differences among the models are attributed primarily to use of different subgrid scale parameterizations and parameter choices as well as to differences in vertica and horizontal grid resolutions in the ocean models. Use of a wide variety of sea-ice models with diverse snow and sea-ice albedo treatments also contributes to these differences. Based on the diagnostics con- sidered, the majority of the models appear suitable for use in studies involving the North Atlantic, but some models require dedicated development effort.