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Archives and libraries were visited to find previously unknown documents testifying to the Lurøy, Norway, earthquake of 31 August 1819 in northernmost continental Europe. The focus here is on Sweden, Finland, and Russia, which are important for determining the area of perceptibility east of Norway. The new written sources include 12 notes or entries in original archived documents, six contemporary newspaper reports, and two recollections written down years later. The original documentation uncovered is contributory to establishing the authenticity of the observations in Finland and Sweden. The dates of the original documentation allow tracing of the dissemination of eyewitness accounts in writing from the inner area of perceptibility southward to the larger documentation and population centers. New sources of information include weather reports of the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, minutes of its meetings, and correspondence sent to the Senate in Finland. The minutes of meetings of the Academy indicate that ample data were collected in the Swedish province of Västerbotten. We found no original Russian documentation but uncovered national newspapers that are more reliable than the previously used Parisian newspaper. To increase transparency, we provide the first list of macroseismic data points (MDPs) including the respective documentation that testify to the Lurøy earthquake. A macroseismic intensity was assigned to a locality, using the European Macroseismic Scale of 1998, when adequate information was available. Accounting for the uncertainty of intensity assessment, the magnitude was estimated as moment magnitude M=5.9±0.2, reconfirming the ranking as the largest onshore or nearshore earthquake in the historical seismicity record of Fennoscandia. In addition to the reappraisal of the 31 August 1819 earthquake, a macroseismic map is provided for the earthquake of 17 February 1819, which was felt in northern Finland and Sweden. Some of its MDPs were previously associated with the Lurøy earthquake.

Supplementary data: The following is the Supplementary data to this article: Acrobat PDF file (2MB) available at: https://ars.els-cdn.com/content/image/1-s2.0-S2212420921007329-mmc1.pdf Copyright © 2022 The Authors. Very large tsunamis are associated with low probabilities of occurrence. In many parts of the world, these events have usually occurred in a distant time in the past. As a result, there is low risk perception and a lack of collective memories, making tsunami risk communication both challenging and complex. Furthermore, immense challenges lie ahead as population and risk exposure continue to increase in coastal areas. Through the last decades, tsunamis have caught coastal populations off-guard, providing evidence of lack of preparedness. Recent tsunamis, such as the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004, 2011 Tohoku and 2018 Palu, have shaped the way tsunami risk is perceived and acted upon. Based on lessons learned from a selection of past tsunami events, this paper aims to review the existing body of knowledge and the current challenges in tsunami risk communication, and to identify the gaps in the tsunami risk management methodologies. The important lessons provided by the past events call for strengthening community resilience and improvement in risk-informed actions and policy measures. This paper shows that research efforts related to tsunami risk communication remain fragmented. The analysis of tsunami risk together with a thorough understanding of risk communication gaps and challenges is indispensable towards developing and deploying comprehensive disaster risk reduction measures. Moving from a broad and interdisciplinary perspective, the paper suggests that probabilistic hazard and risk assessments could potentially contribute towards better science communication and improved planning and implementation of risk mitigation measures. COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology); Royal Society, UK (grant number CHL\R1\180173); Severo Ochoa Centers of Excellence Program (CEX 2018-000797-S) funded by MCIN/ AEI /10.13039/501100011033; Lloyd's Tercentenary Research Foundation, the Lighthill Risk Network, and the Lloyd's Register Foundation-Data Centric Engineering Programme of the Alan Turing Institute.

We present the first probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) specifically for the Shanxi rift system, north China, which has been defined as one of the areas of highest seismic hazard and risk in China in recent decades. We applied a Monte Carlo-based approach to PSHA, based on so far the most complete earthquake catalog available, a detailed zonation considering both seismicity distribution and local tectonic features, a logic tree of carefully selected ground-motion prediction equations, as well as a cautious consideration of actual local site effects for this region. Both areal sources (for Ms

Earthquake environmental effects (EEEs) were compiled for the earthquakes of 1626, 1759, 1819, and 1904 in the Fennoscandian Peninsula, northern Europe. The principal source of information was the contemporary newspaper press. Macroseismic questionnaires collected in 1759 and 1904 were also consulted. We prepared maps showing newly discovered EEEs together with previously known EEEs and analyzed their spatial distribution. We assigned intensities based on the 2007 Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI) scale to 27 selected localities and compared them to intensities assigned based on the 1998 European Macroseismic Scale. While the overall agreement between the scales is good, intensities may remain uncertain due to the sparsity of written documentation. The collected data sets are most probably incomplete but still show that EEEs are not unprecedented cases in the target region. The findings include landslides and rockfalls as well as cascade effects with a risk potential and widespread water movements up to long distances. The winter earthquake of 1759 cracked ice over a large area. This investigation demonstrates that the ESI scale also has practical importance for regions with infrequent EEEs.

Potassium chromium jarosite, KCr3(OH)(6)(SO4)(2) (Cr-jarosite), is considered a promising candidate to display spin liquid behavior due to the strong magnetic frustration imposed by the crystal structure. However, the ground state magnetic properties have been debated, since Cr-jarosite is notoriously non-stoichiometric. Our study reports the magnetic properties for deuterated KCr3(OD)(6)(SO4)(2) on chemically well-defined samples, which have been characteried by a combination of powder X-ray diffraction, neutron diffraction, solid state NMR spectroscopy, and scanning electron microscopy with energy dispersive spectroscopy. Eight polycrystalline samples, which all contained only 1-3% Cr vacancies were obtained. However, significant substitution (2-27%) of potassium with H2O and/or H3O+ was observed and resulted in pronounced stacking disorder along the c-axis. A clear second-order transition to an antiferromagnetically ordered phase at T-N = 3.8(1) K with a small net moment of 0.03 mu(B) per Cr3+-ion was obtained from vibrating sample magnetometry and temperature dependent neutron diffraction. The moment is attributed to spin canting caused by the Dzyaloshinskii-Moriya interaction. Thus, our experimental results imply that even ideal potassium chromium jarosite will exhibit magnetic order below 4 K and therefore it does not qualify as a true spin liquid material.

Potassium chromium jarosite, KCr

Human activity causes vibrations that propagate into the ground as high-frequency seismic waves. Measures to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread changes in human activity, leading to a months-long reduction in seismic noise of up to 50%. The 2020 seismic noise quiet period is the longest and most prominent global anthropogenic seismic noise reduction on record. While the reduction is strongest at surface seismometers in populated areas, this seismic quiescence extends for many kilometers radially and hundreds of meters in depth. This provides an opportunity to detect subtle signals from subsurface seismic sources that would have been concealed in noisier times and to benchmark sources of anthropogenic noise. A strong correlation between seismic noise and independent measurements of human mobility suggests that seismology provides an absolute, real-time estimate of population dynamics., P.K. was funded by a Royal Society University Research Fellowship (URF\R1\180377). P.B. and M.J. acknowledge support from the International Training Course “Seismology and Seismic Hazard Assessment” funded by the GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam (GFZ) and the German Federal Foreign Office through the German Humanitarian Assistance program (grant S08-60 321.50 ALL 03/19). P.B also acknowledges financial support from the Boğaziçi University Research Fund (BAP 15683). O.F.C.d.O acknowledges funding from a Young Investigator Grant from the Human Frontier Science Program (HFSP - project number RGY0072/2017). C.P.E. and E.S. acknowledge funding from the HELPOS Project “Hellenic Plate Observing System” (MIS 5002697). L.E. and S.S.-K. acknowledge funding from a VIDI project from the Dutch Research Council (NWO project number 864.14.005). G.A.F. acknowledges contributions from the Observatorio San Calixto, which is supported by the Air Force Technical Application Center (AFTAC). C.R.L. acknowledge funding from the NSF Graduate Research Fellowship Program (grant No. DGE‐1745301). V.-H.M. and R.D.P. acknowledge support from grant CONACYT-299766. R.D.P. acknowledges support from the UNAM-DGAPA postdoctoral scholarship. J.O. acknowledges support from the Agencia Nacional de Investigación y Desarrollo (Scholarship ANID-PFCHA / Doctorado Nacional / 2020-21200903). S.P. acknowledges financial support from the Natural Environment Research Council (NE/R013144/1). A.E.R. acknowledges support from the K.H. Renlund foundation. M.K.S. acknowledges the New Zealand Earthquake Commission (EQC Project No 20796). H.X. acknowledges support from a Multidisciplinary Research on the Coronavirus and its Impacts (MRCI) grant from UC Santa Barbara. The Australian Seismometers in Schools data used in this research are supported by AuScope, enabled by the Australian Commonwealth NCRIS program. A.O. acknowledges support from the project RESIST, funded by the Belgian Federal Science Policy (contract SR/00/305) and the Luxembourg National Research Fund

Landslides, earthquakes and other natural disasters are expected to increase in the Arctic, yet our ability to make informed decisions about safety is tightly limited by lack of data. As part of the Integrated Arctic Observation System (INTAROS) project, geophones were installed by residents in Greenland and by University of Bergen in Svalbard in 2018. The purpose of the installations was to explore challenges and benefits of community-based data collection for seismological monitoring in the Arctic region. Raspberry Shake units with one/three-component velocity sensors were selected for the deployment, due to their user-friendly configuration, easy installation, and well established digital platform and web services. The purpose of engaging community members in the use of geophone sensors was to monitor earthquakes, cryoseisms (events generated by ice mass), and landslides. We report our findings with respect to challenges regarding the installation and operation of the Raspberry Shake sensors at both locations. Connecting community-based recordings with permanent seismological networks improved both the detection capability and the data support for understanding seismic events in Greenland. In contrast, finding suitable locations for deployments in Longyearbyen turned out to be challenging, because most buildings are constructed on poles due to the permafrost and indoor space is expensive. Promoting citizen seismology in the Arctic could improve monitoring of seismic events in the Arctic while simultaneously raising community awareness of natural hazards. publishedVersion

Highlights • Increased glacial sedimentation rates do not generate sufficient overpressure to trigger a landslide. • Simulated overpressures for different sedimentation scenarios do not significantly differ. • A glacimarine layer underneath rapidly-deposited sediments is important for overpressure build-up. • An earthquake of M6.9 or larger at a short distance from the Tampen Slide headwall could have triggered the Tampen Slide. Abstract Trough mouth fans are environments characterized by high sediment supply during glacial stages and the occurrence of large-scale instabilities. The geological record indicates that several of these environments have failed repeatedly resulting in large submarine landslides. The roles of sedimentation rate, weak layers, glacial loading and unloading as well as seismic activity on triggering megaslides in trough-mouth-fan systems is still unclear. A better understanding of the preconditioning factors, triggers and consequences of these landslides is crucial due to the hazard they pose to coastal communities and offshore industries. In this paper, we focus on the North Sea Trough Mouth Fan, which is the result of massive glacial sediment input delivered to the shelf edge through the Norwegian Channel, southeast Nordic Seas margin. The Tampen Slide, one of several large paleo-landslides that have happened within the North Sea Trough Mouth Fan, took place at c. 130 ka (end of MIS 6), and removed an estimated 1800 km3 of sediment. Here, we use boundary conditions from the Tampen Slide and 2D Finite Element Modeling (Abaqus software from Simulia) to evaluate the effects of variations in sedimentation rates as well as sediment properties on the generation of excess pore pressure, fluid flow, and slope stability along the axis of the trough-mouth-fan system. The model domain, 40 km in length and 2 km in height, is dominated by glacigenic debris flows and glacimarine sediment deposits. We use geotechnical data measured on samples of glacigenic and glacimarine sediment deposits from the nearby Ormen Lange gas field area to constrain the model. We evaluate the stability of the slope under various scenarios, including constant sediment loading, episodic changes in sedimentation rates and abrupt pulses in sediment delivery for a 61 kyr period (MIS 6). The models show that increased sedimentation rates during glacial stages do not generate sufficient excess pore pressure to set off a landslide. Furthermore, the simulated overpressures for the different sedimentation scenarios do not significantly differ at the end of the model runs. The results also highlight the importance of a basal glacimarine sediment layer underneath the rapidly-deposited sediments for the build-up of overpressure. Consequently, this glacimarine sediment layer has the inherited potential to act as a weak layer facilitating instability. However, as overpressure due to sediment deposition alone does not result in slope failure, we couple the preconditioned slope with earthquake ground shaking. Based on attenuation models, an earthquake of approximately M6.9 or larger at a short distance from the Tampen Slide headwall could have triggered the landslide. Therefore, we suggest glacial sedimentation and a glacimarine sediment layer to represent preconditioning factors, and seismic shaking as the final trigger mechanism for the Tampen Slide, i.e. similar to the situation that lead to the development of the Storegga Slide in the same area.

The central Arctic Ocean is one of the least observed oceans in the world. This ice-covered region is challenging for ocean observing with respect to technology, logistics and costs. Many physical, biogeochemical, biological, and geophysical processes in the water column and sea floor under the sea ice are difficult to observe and therefore poorly understood. Today, there are technological advances in platforms and sensors for under-ice observation, which offer possibilities to install and operate sustained observing infrastructures in the Arctic Ocean. The goal of the INTAROS project is to develop integrated observing systems in the Arctic, including improvement of data sharing and dissemination to various user groups. INTAROS supports a number of systems providing data from the ocean in delayed mode as well as in near-real time mode, but only a few operate in the ice-covered areas.Autonomous observing platforms used in the ice-free oceans such as Argo floats, gliders, and autonomous surface vehicles cannot yet be used operationally in ice-covered Arctic regions. The limitation is because the sea ice prevents these underwater platforms from reaching the surface for satellite communication and geopositioning. To improve the Arctic Ocean Observing capability OceanObs19 recommended ‘to pilot a sustained multipurpose acoustic network for positioning, tomography, passive acoustics, and communication in an integrated Arctic Observing System, with eventual transition to global coverage’. Acoustic networks have been used locally and regionally in the Arctic for underwater acoustic thermometry, geo-positioning for floats and gliders, and passive acoustic. The Coordinated Arctic Acoustic Thermometry Experiment (CAATEX) is a first step toward developing a basin-scale multipurpose acoustic network using modern instrumentation.To provide secure data delivery, submarine cables are needed either as dedicated cabled observatories or as hybrid cable systems (sharing the cable infrastructure between science and commercial telecommunications), or both combined. Several large-scale cabled observatories existing coastal areas in world oceans, but none on the Arctic Ocean. At OceanObs19 it was recommended to transition (telecom+sensing) SMART subsea cable systems from present pilots to trans-ocean implementation, to address climate, ocean circulation, sea level, tsunami and earthquake early warning, ultimately with global coverage. Cabled observatories, either stand alone or branching from a hybrid system, could provide power and real time communication to support connected water column moorings and sea floor instrumentation as well as docking mobile platforms. Subsea cable developers are looking into the possibility to deploy a communication cable across the Arctic Ocean from Europe to Asia, because this offers a much shorter route compared to the terrestrial cables. An international consortium of leading scientists in ocean observing with experience in state-of-the-art technologies on platforms, sensors, subsea cable technology, acoustic communication and data transmission plan to establish a project to implement and test the system based on experience from the CAATEX experiment and other Arctic observing system experiments. The INTAROS project is presently developing a Roadmap for an integrated Arctic Observing System, where multipurpose ocean observing systems will be one component.

Applying probabilistic methods to infrequent but devastating natural events is intrinsically challenging. For tsunami analyses, a suite of geophysical assessments should be in principle evaluated because of the different causes generating tsunamis (earthquakes, landslides, volcanic activity, meteorological events, and asteroid impacts) with varying mean recurrence rates. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analyses (PTHAs) are conducted in different areas of the world at global, regional, and local scales with the aim of understanding tsunami hazard to inform tsunami risk reduction activities. PTHAs enhance knowledge of the potential tsunamigenic threat by estimating the probability of exceeding specific levels of tsunami intensity metrics (e.g., run-up or maximum inundation heights) within a certain period of time (exposure time) at given locations (target sites); these estimates can be summarized in hazard maps or hazard curves. This discussion presents a broad overview of PTHA, including (i) sources and mechanisms of tsunami generation, emphasizing the variety and complexity of the tsunami sources and their generation mechanisms, (ii) developments in modeling the propagation and impact of tsunami waves, and (iii) statistical procedures for tsunami hazard estimates that include the associated epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. Key elements in understanding the potential tsunami hazard are discussed, in light of the rapid development of PTHA methods during the last decade and the globally distributed applications, including the importance of considering multiple sources, their relative intensities, probabilities of occurrence, and uncertainties in an integrated and consistent probabilistic framework.

Published results of coda Q show a large variation in values. These variations are often claimed to be related to different tectonics, whereas they might just be related to using different assumptions in the processing, leading to different input parameters for the analysis. In this study, the effect of using different processing parameters is investigated and significant differences, particularly at low frequencies, are observed. We find a new set of optimal parameters, which we recommend using in future studies. Using a short lapse time of 30 s and optimal parameters, data from both similar and very different tectonic regions are used to calculate coda Q using the same program and the same parameters. The regions considered are eastern Anatolia, the Azores, Jan Mayen, northwestern and central Argentina, the Shanxi rift system in China, and southwestern Norway. We obtain the following relations: eastern Anatolia ( Q =88 f 0.66 ), Azores ( Q =86 f 0.70 ), Jan Mayen ( Q =90 f 0.72 ), northwestern and central Argentina ( Q =89 f 0.94 ), Shanxi rift system ( Q =99 f 0.89 ), and southwestern Norway ( Q =124 f 0.91 ). The results show that coda Q is very similar for regions of similar tectonics and significantly different for regions with varying tectonics. Using alternative, more common parameters gives different Q , but the regional differences remain, so which parameters to use to get correct coda Q values is still uncertain. However, coda Q can clearly distinguish different tectonic areas provided identical processing parameters are used, even if they are not optimal.

In this study, the effects of implementing stochastic finite fault ground motion simulations in earthquake hazard and risk assessment are evaluated. The investigations are conducted for the city of Dehradun (Indian Himalayas). We compare two ground motion estimation techniques: a ground motion prediction equation–based technique and a simulation-based technique. The comparison focuses on the differences the techniques imply on earthquake damage and loss estimates. Ground motion simulations are first calibrated against the instrumental recordings of the 1991 Mw6.8 Uttarkashi earthquake. Afterward, a number of events are considered with different magnitude, distance, and azimuth to the source. Results indicate large differences between ground motion and loss estimates derived by the two methods, especially in the direction of rupture propagation, which persist to 2–2.5 fault lengths distance. It is therefore strongly recommended to consider rupture kinematics and orientation to the test bed when providing ground motion estimates for near-field earthquake loss assessment studies.

A new locally calibrated M L scale was derived for the area around the Shanxi rift system, North China, from 83 events recorded on 56 stations of the Shanxi Seismic Network (SSN) resulting in 2,633 observations during the period of 2008–2012. It is expressed as M L = log(A) + 0.80log(R) + 0.00187R − 1.4, where A is the maximum amplitude of vertical component in nanometer (nm) measured on a simulated Wood–Anderson seismogram at a hypocentral distance R. The new M L scale is valid for distances up to 600 km and is an improvement comparing to the currently used SSN scale, with a reduction in variance of 39 % in magnitude residuals. The moment magnitude M w was also calculated for the whole data set based on spectral analysis. To validate the Q-function used for spectral M w, we carried out moment tensor inversion for 17 moderate size events and selected the regional attenuation model which gave spectral M w on average closest to moment tensor M w. The most appropriate Q-function was found to be Q(f) = 299.4f 0.563. The determination of the M w magnitudes makes it possible to derive a relationship between the M L and M w scales of this region, which is expressed as M w = 0.85M L + 0.58, similar to relationships found elsewhere for similar tectonic environments.

In ground motion simulation studies based on earthquake rupture scenarios, the absolute ground motion level, frequency content, signal duration and distribution of simulated ground motion is highly dependent on the input parameters used in the calculations. We conduct a predictive study assessing the potential ground motions for Izmir, Turkey based on earthquake scenarios. We calculate ground motions from a reference scenario (Mw6.8) and compare it to 25 test scenarios for the Izmir fault in order to investigate the effect of input parameter uncertainty on the simulated ground motion. In this study, we use a hybrid broadband frequency (0.1–10 Hz) ground motion simulation technique. We find average ground motion levels in the central area of Izmir of more than 600 cm/s2 and 60 cm/s for peak ground acceleration and velocity, respectively, while the standard deviation is found to exceed 200 cm/s2 and 20 cm/s, respectively. The tested parameters identified to have the largest influence on the absolute ground motion level are seismic moment, average stress-drop, rise time and rupture velocity. Parameters identified to have the least effect on ground motion level are rake and ratio of stress-drop on asperities to background stress-drop. The low-frequency ground motion, critical in terms of damage to the building stock in Izmir, is mostly affected by the location of nucleation point, seismic moment, depth of the rupture area, rise time and the velocity model. It is, therefore, highly recommended that future studies focus on reducing the uncertainties in these input parameters.

[1] Seismic waves of the giant 2011 Tohoku earthquake triggered seiches in western Norwegian fjords. The seiching began a half hour after the earthquake origin time. The oscillations were noted by eyewitnesses and recorded by surveillance and cell phone cameras. The observations show maximum trough-to-peak amplitudes of 1.0–1.5 m and periods of 67–100 s. The water waves were not triggered from the arrival of the surface waves, the timing inferred for other seiches. Instead, the seiching began during the passage of horizontal S waves. We reproduced the S wave trigger by means of a shallow-water wave model calibrated previously to Norwegian tides and storm surges. The simulations, which used the observed earthquake motion as forcing, show water waves with periods and amplitudes similar to those in the film clips. However, the strongest horizontal ground oscillations with shorter periods (20–30 s) did not contribute much to the formation of the seiches.

The use of shake maps in terms of macroseismic intensity in earthquake early warning systems as well as intensity based seismic hazard assessments provides a valuable supplement to typical studies based on recorded ground motion parameters. A requirement for such applications is ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity, which have the advantages of good data availability and the direct relation of intensity to earthquake damage. In the current study, we derive intensity prediction equations for the Vrancea region in Romania, which is characterized by the frequent occurrence of large intermediate depth earthquakes giving rise to a peculiar anisotropic ground shaking distribution. The GMPE have a physical basis and take the anisotropic intensity distribution into account through an empirical regional correction function. Furthermore, the relations are easy to implement for the user. Relations are derived in terms of epicentral, rupture and Joyner–Boore distance and the obtained relations all provide a new intensity estimate with an uncertainty of ca. 0.6 intensity units.

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPE) in terms of macroseismic intensity are a prerequisite for intensity-based shake maps and seismic hazard assessment and have the advantage of direct relation to earthquake damage and good data availability also for historical events. In this study, we derive GMPE for macroseismic intensity for the Campania region in southern Italy. This region is highly exposed to the seismic hazard related to the high seismicity with moderate- to large-magnitude earthquakes in the Appenninic belt. The relations are based on physical considerations and are easy to implement for the user. The uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are accounted for through a Monte Carlo approach and results are compared to those obtained through a standard regression scheme. One relation takes into account the finite dimensions of the fault plane and describes the site intensity as a function of Joyner–Boore distance. Additionally, a relation describing the intensity as a function of epicentral distance is derived for implementation in cases where the dimensions of the fault plane are unknown. The relations are based on an extensive dataset of macroseismic intensities for large earthquakes in the Campania region and are valid in the magnitude range Mw = 6.3–7.0 for shallow crustal earthquakes. Results indicate that the uncertainties in earthquake source parameters are negligible in comparison to the spread in the intensity data. The GMPE provide a good overall fit to historical earthquakes in the region and can provide the intensities for a future earthquake within 1 intensity unit.

Prediction equations for macroseismic intensity are the backbone of seismic hazard assessment, of source parameter estimation, and of shake map generation in cases where an output in terms of intensity is desired. This is especially required when a direct relation to the damage associated with ground shaking is of interest or if ground shaking estimates will be used for informing nonseismologists such as emergency response teams or the general public. In the current study we derive ground-motion prediction equations for macroseismic intensity valid for the Marmara Sea region, northwest Turkey. The relations have a physical basis and are easy to implement for the user. In one relation, the finite extent of the fault rupture is accounted for by defining distance as the Joyner–Boore distance leading to the relation ![Graphic][1] where M w is the moment magnitude, R JB is the Joyner–Boore distance, and h is the hypocentral depth. Furthermore, a relation based on the epicentral distance ( R epi) is derived for application in cases where the extent of the fault plane is unknown: ![Graphic][2] The relations are valid for the ranges 5≤ I ≤10, 5.9≤ M w≤7.4, and R ≤350 km. It is shown that inclusion of the rupture dimensions leads to an improvement in the ability of the relation to fit observations in the near field for large earthquakes. Comparison to already existing intensity prediction equations for the region shows that the new relations provide better estimates of the macroseismic intensity distribution, especially in the region near the rupturing fault plane. [1]: /embed/inline-graphic-1.gif [2]: /embed/inline-graphic-2.gif

A fortuitous sequence of closely spaced earthquakes in the Rana region of northern Norway, during 2005, has provided an ideal natural laboratory for investigating event detectability using waveform correlation over networks and arrays at regional distances. A small number of events between magnitude 2.0 and 3.5 were recorded with a high SNR by the Fennoscandian IMS seismic arrays at distances over 600 km and three of these events, including the largest on 24 June, displayed remarkable waveform similarity even at relatively high frequencies. In an effort to detect occurrences of smaller earthquakes in the immediate geographical vicinity of the 24 June event, a multi-channel correlation detector for the NORSAR array was run for the whole calender year 2005 using the signal from the master event as a template. A total of 32 detections were made and all but 2 of these coincided with independent correlation detections using the other Nordic IMS array stations; very few correspond to signals detectable using traditional energy detectors. Permanent and temporary stations of the Norwegian National Seismic Network (NNSN) at far closer epicentral distances have confirmed that all but one of the correlation detections at NORSAR in fact correspond to real events. The closest stations at distances of approximately 10 km can confirm that the smallest of these events have magnitudes down to 0.5 which represents a detection threshold reduction of over 1.5 for the large-aperture NORSAR array and over 1.0 for the almost equidistant regional ARCES array. The incompleteness of the local network recordings precludes a comprehensive double-difference location for the full set of events. However, stable double-difference relative locations can be obtained for eight of the events using only the Lg phase recorded at the array stations. All events appear to be separated by less than 0.5 km. Clear peaks were observed in the NORSAR correlation coefficient traces during the coda of some of the larger events; the local stations confirm that these are in fact aftershocks exhibiting very similar waveforms to the main events. Many of the more marginal correlation detections are not made when the calculations are repeated using shorter signal segments, fewer sensors or more distant stations. We demonstrate in addition how these almost repeating seismic sources have been exploited to detect and measure timing anomalies at individual sites within the arrays and network.

The effect of a 1-year exercise and diet intervention program on global self-concept, perceptions of the body, physical competence, exercise mastery, social competence, social comfort, and fitness was examined with 208 healthy individuals (191 males, 17 females) aged 39-49 years (mean age 44.9) with elevated risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The relative utility of the skill development versus the self-enhancement model of the self-concept/behaviour relationship was tested. The participants were randomized into four groups: diet (n = 53), diet and exercise (n = 64), exercise (n = 48) and no active intervention (n = 43). Measurements were made by the Harter adult self perception profile (HASPP) and the self-perception in exercise questionnaire (SPEQ). Two-way ANOVA analyses revealed that exercise participation, with or without diet, enhanced self-perceptions of physical mastery and ability, body perception, fitness and social comfort. The unique contribution of diet indicated enhanced body perception. No effect was found of diet or exercise on global self-concept. Exercise participation had a positive effect on perceptions of the self, and the higher the compliance with the exercise program, the stronger were the effects on the self-perceptions. This supported the skill development model of the self-concept/behaviour relationship. As the pretest self-concept scores did not predict exercise compliance, the self-enhancement model of the self-concept/behaviour relationship was not supported.

SUMMARY Predictive relationships for the ground motion in the Marmara region (northwestern Turkey) are parametrized after regressing three-component waveforms from regional earthquakes, in the frequency range: 0.4‐15.0 Hz, and in the distance range: 10‐200 km. The data set consists of 2400 three-component recordings from 462 earthquakes, recorded at 53 stations. Moment magnitudes, M w, range between 2.5 and 7.2. The largest event for which we have waveforms available (M w 7.2) occurred in Duzce on 1999 November 12. The aftershocks of that earthquake, together with the aftershocks of the 1999 August 17 Izmit event (M w = 7.4), are included in the dataset. Regressions are performed, independently, on Fourier velocity spectra and on peak ground velocities, for a large number of sampling frequencies. A simple model is used to relate the logarithm of the measured ground motion to excitation, site, and propagation terms. Results obtained for peak velocities are used to define a piecewise continuous geometrical spreading function, g(r), a frequency-dependent Q(f ), and a distance-dependent duration function. The latter is used, through random vibration theory (RVT), in order to predict time-domain characteristics (i.e. peak values) of the ground motion. The complete model obtained for the peak ground motion was used to match the results of the regressions on the Fourier amplitudes. Fourier velocity spectra for the combined horizontal motion are best fit by a hinged quadrilinear geometrical spreading function for observations in the 10‐200 km hypocentral distance ranges as a function of frequency: f 100, f ≥ 1.0 Hz, r −1.0 for r ≤ 30 km; r −0.6 for 30 100 km. The frequency-dependent crustal shearwave quality factor Q (f ) coefficient Q( f ) = 180 f 0.45 . The T (5‐75 per cent) duration window provides good agreement between observed and predicted peak values. By modelling the behaviour of the small earthquakes at high frequency, we also quantified a regional parameter κ = 0.055 s. Spectral models with one single-corner frequency (Brune), and with two-corner frequencies (Atkinson and Silva) fit the observed high-frequency excitation levels equally well, whereas the model by Atkinson and Silva fits the low-frequency observations slightly better than Brune’s. RVT is used to predict the absolute levels of ground shaking, following Boore’s implementation of the stochastic ground motion model (Boore’s SMSIM codes). Our regional empirical predictive relationships are compared to the ones adopted in several regions of the world, from California to Western United States.

[1] Estimating the occurrence probability of natural disasters is critical for setting construction standards and, more generally, prioritizing risk mitigation efforts. Tsunami hazard in the Mediterranean region has traditionally been estimated by considering so-called “most credible” scenarios of tsunami impact for limited geographical regions, but little attention has been paid to the probability of any given scenario. We present here the first probabilistic estimate of earthquake-generated tsunami hazard for the entire Mediterranean Sea. We estimate the annual probability of exceeding a given tsunami amplitude at any coastal location in the region by applying a Monte Carlo based technique. Earthquake activity rates are estimated from the observed seismicity, and tsunami impact is derived from deterministic tsunami wave propagation scenarios. The highest hazard is in the eastern Mediterranean owing to earthquakes along the Hellenic Arc, but most of the Mediterranean coastline is prone to tsunami impact. Our method allows us to identify the main sources of tsunami hazard at any given location and to investigate the potential for issuing timely tsunami warnings. We find that the probability of a tsunami wave exceeding 1 m somewhere in the Mediterranean in the next 30 years is close to 100%. This underlines the urgent need for a tsunami warning system in the region.

We apply here a forecasting model to the Italian region for the spatio-temporal distribution of seismicity based on a smoothing Kernel function, Coulomb stress variations, and a rate-and-state friction law. We tested the feasibility of this approach, and analyzed the importance of introducing time-dependency in forecasting future events. The change in seismicity rate as a function of time was estimated by calculating the Coulomb stress change imparted by large earthquakes. We applied our approach to the region of Italy, and used all of the cataloged earthquakes that occurred up to 2006 to generate the reference seismicity rate. For calculation of the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, we estimated the rate-and-state stress transfer imparted by all of the ML≥4.0 earthquakes that occurred during 2007 and 2008. To validate the results, we first compared the reference seismicity rate with the distribution of ML≥1.8 earthquakes since 2007, using both a non-declustered and a declustered catalog. A positive correlation was found, and all of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 82% and 87% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. Furthermore, 95% of the forecast earthquakes had locations within 27% and 47% of the study area with the highest seismicity rate, respectively. For the time-dependent seismicity rate changes, the number of events with locations in the regions with a seismicity rate increase was 11% more than in the regions with a seismicity rate decrease.

The Mw = 8.0Wenchuan earthquake of May 12, 2008, caused destruction over a wide area. The earthquake cost more than 69,000 lives and the damage is reported to have left more than 5 million people homeless. It is estimated that 5.36 million buildings were destroyed and 21 million buildings were damaged in Sichuan and the nearby provinces. Economic losses due to the event are estimated to be 124 billion USD. From a field reconnaissance trip conducted in October 2008, it is evident that the combination of several factors, including mountainous landscape, strong ground shaking, extensive landslides and rock-falls, has exacerbated the human and economic consequences of this earthquake. Extensive damage occurred over a wide area due to the shear size of the earthquake rupture combined with poor quality building construction. In order to investigate the ground shaking during the earthquake, we have conducted a strong ground motion simulation study, applying a hybrid broadband frequency technique. The preliminary results show large spatial variation in the ground shaking, with the strongest ground motions along the fault plane. The simulation results have been calibrated against the recorded ground motion from several near-field stations in the area, and acceleration values of the order of 1 g are obtained, similar to what was recorded during the event. Comparison with the damage distribution observed in the field confirms that the effect of fault rupture complexity on the resulting ground motion publishedVersion

On 26 December 2004, a devastating earthquake of M 9.3 occurred offshore northern Sumatra. Due to the size of this earthquake and the accompanying tsunami wave, disastrous consequences have been observed in several countries around the Indian Ocean. The tectonics in the region are characterized by the oblique, north-northeast-oriented subduction of the Indian–Australian plate under the Sunda microplate with a rate of 6–6.5 cm/yr. This oblique convergence results in strain partitioning, where the trench-perpendicular thrust faulting along the subducting slab accommodates the east–west component of the motion, whereas the north–south component of the motion is probably accommodated by the right-lateral strike-slip faulting along the Great Sumatran fault and the Mentawi fault. Source parameters of the 26 December 2004 event have been used for modeling the resulting ground motions in the nearby affected regions. Results give an insight on the importance of ground shaking in the total destruction of places like Banda Aceh, northern Sumatra, Indonesia. The modeling is performed for a multiasperity finite fault using a hybrid procedure combining deterministic modeling at low frequencies and semistochastic modeling at high frequencies. Results show that strong shaking was distributed over a large area including northwestern Sumatra and its offshore islands. In Banda Aceh, which experienced significant damage, bedrock velocities reached 60 cm/sec with duration of the shaking of ca. 150 sec. The largest ground motions occurred near the strongest asperities of the fault plane, where velocities of 200 cm/sec are modeled for bedrock conditions.

Jan Mayen is an active volcanic island situated along the mid-Atlantic Ridge north of Iceland. It is closely connected with the geodynamic processes associated with the interaction between the Jan Mayen Fracture Zone (jmfz) and the slowly spreading Kolbeinsey and Mohns Ridges. Despite the significant tectonic activity expressed by the frequent occurrence of medium to large earthquakes, detailed correlation between individual events and the causative faults along the jmfz has been lacking. Recently acquired detailed bathymetric data in the vicinity of Jan Mayen has allowed us to document such correlation for the first time. The earthquake of 14 April 2004 ( M w 6), which occurred along the jmfz, was studied in detail and correlated with the bathymetry. Locations of aftershocks within the first 12 hours after the mainshock outline a 10-km-long fault plane. Interactions between various fault systems are demonstrated through locations of later aftershocks, which indicate that supposedly normal fault structures to the north of the ruptured fault, in the Jan Mayen Platform, have been reactivated. Correlation of the waveforms shows that events located on these structures are significantly different from activity at neighboring structures. Coulomb stress modeling gives an explanation to the locations of the aftershocks but cannot reveal any information about their mechanisms.

Following the disastrous earthquakes in Izmit and Duzce along the North Anatolian fault in 1999, the earthquake hazard in the Istanbul area became a great concern. In this study we simulate strong ground motions caused by a scenario earthquake (M 7.5) in the Marmara Sea, and investigate the effect of varying the input parameters on the broadband frequency ground motion. Simulations are based on a multiasperity source model that involves the combined rupture of the North Anatolian fault segments beneath the Marmara Sea. We use a hybrid model combin- ing a deterministic simulation of the low frequencies (0.1-1.0 Hz) with a semisto- chastic simulation of the high frequencies (1.0-10.0 Hz). Computation at each fre- quency range is performed separately and the total ground motion is combined in the time domain. Computations are linear and are performed at bedrock level, thereby not taking any effect of local geological conditions into account. We calculate a total of 17 earthquake scenarios corresponding to different source and attenuation param- eters to study their effect on the ground motion. The most significant parameters in terms of ground-shaking level are the rise time, rupture velocity, rupture initiation point, and stress drop. The largest variability of strong ground motions is observed in regions adjacent to asperities and is associated with frequencies higher than 5 Hz. For lower frequencies our simulated velocity spectra within the Istanbul area are fairly stable among scenarios. The average standard deviations of all ground-motion measures are less than 35% of the mean. Online material: Figures of peak ground acceleration and peak ground velocity and their differences to the reference scenario values.

International audience; Since the 1999 Izmit and Düzce earthquakes in northwest Turkey, many seismic hazard studies have focused on the city of Istanbul. An important issue in this respect is local site effects: strong amplifications are expected at a number of locations due to the local geological conditions. In this study we estimate the local site effects in the Ataköy area (southwestern Istanbul) by applying several techniques using synthetic data (hybrid 3-D modelling and 1-D modelling) and comparing to empirical data. We apply a hybrid 3-D finite-difference method that combines a complex source and wave propagation for a regional 1-D velocity model with site effects calculated for a local 3-D velocity structure. The local velocity model is built from geological, geotechnical and geomorphological data. The results indicate that strongest spectral amplifications (SA) in the Ataköy area occur around 1 Hz and that amplification levels are largest for alluvial sites where SA reaching a factor of 1.5-2 can be expected in the case of a large earthquake. We also compare our results to H/V (horizontal to vertical component of the recorded signal) spectral ratios calculated for microtremor data recorded at 30 sites as well as to ambient noise synthetics simulated using a 1-D approach. Because the applied methods complement each other, they provide comprehensive and reliable information about the local site effects in Ataköy. Added to that, our results have significant implications for the southwestern parts of Istanbul built on similar geological formations, for which, therefore, similar SA levels are expected.

The European Plate Observing System (EPOS) aims to integrate existing infrastructures in the solid earth sciences into a single infrastructure, enabling earth scientists across Europe to combine, model, and interpret multidisciplinary datasets at different time and length scales. In particular, a primary objective is to integrate existing research infrastructures within the fields of seismology, geodesy, geophysics, geology, rock physics, and volcanology at a pan-European level. The added value of such integration is not visible through individual analyses of data from each research infrastructure; it needs to be understood in a long-term perspective that includes the time when changes implied by current scientific research results are fully realized and their societal impacts have become clear. EPOS is now entering its implementation phase following a four-year preparatory phase during which 18 member countries in Europe contributed more than 250 research infrastructures to the building of this pan-European vision. The Arctic covers a significant portion of the European plate and therefore plays an important part in research on the solid earth in Europe. However, the work environment in the Arctic is challenging. First, most of the European Plate boundary in the Arctic is offshore, and hence, sub-sea networks must be built for solid earth observation. Second, ice covers the Arctic Ocean where the European Plate boundary crosses through the Gakkel Ridge, so innovative technologies are needed to monitor solid earth deformation. Therefore, research collaboration with other disciplines such as physical oceanography, marine acoustics, and geo-biology is necessary. The establishment of efficient research infrastructures suitable for these challenging conditions is essential both to reduce costs and to stimulate multidisciplinary research.

The seismically active Skagerrak region in the border area between Denmark and Norway has traditionally been associated with uncertain earthquake locations due to the limited station coverage in the region. A new seismic station in southern Norway and a recent update of the earthquake database of the Danish National Network have led to a much more complete and homogeneous data coverage of the Skagerrak area, giving the possibility of improved earthquake locations in the region. In this study, we relocate earthquakes in the Skagerrak area to obtain a more exact picture of the seismicity and investigate well-recorded events to determine the depth distribution. Hypocenter depths are found to be generally in the range 11–25 km. Furthermore, new composite focal mechanisms are determined for clusters of events with similar waveforms. Results indicate that the Skagerrak seismicity is associated with shallow, crustal faults oriented in the NS direction south of the Sorgenfrei–Tornquist Zone (STZ) as well as with the STZ itself. Mainly reverse faulting mechanisms along NE– SW oriented faults indicate maximum horizontal compression in the NW–SE direction. This is in agreement with World Stress Map generalizations, most likely associated with ridge push forces from the mid-Atlantic ridge, though modified probably by local crustal weaknesses. publishedVersion

The mid-ocean ridge system is the main source of earthquakes within the Arctic region. The earthquakes are recorded on the permanent land-based stations in the region, although, smaller earthquakes remain undetected. In this study, we make use of three Ocean Bottom Seismographs (OBSs) that were deployed offshore western Svalbard, along the spreading ridges. The OBS arrival times were used to relocate the regional seismicity, using a Bayesian approach, which resulted in a significant improvement with tighter clustering around the spreading ridge. We also extended the regional magnitude scales for the northern Atlantic region for OBSs, by computing site correction terms. Besides location and magnitude improvement, the OBS network was able to detect hundreds of earthquakes, mostly with magnitude below Mw 3, including a swarm activity at the Molloy Deep. Our offshore observations provide further evidence of a low-velocity anomaly offshore Svalbard, at the northern tip of Knipovich ridge that was previously seen in full-waveform inversion. We conclude that even a single permanent OBS near the ridge would make a significant difference to earthquake catalogs and their interpretation.