Search

Abstract: Sustainability policies that have quantitative emission or carbon footprint measurements are important in view of climate change and current rapid urbanization in developing countries like Malaysia. Although sustainability policies are mentioned in national development plan as early as in the 1990s, many of these policies are piecemeal and expressed qualitatively. In achieving environmental sustainability, planning of city or a region can be more functional and implementable by using low carbon city concept. Planning a low carbon city uses sustainable development principles; this demonstrates a high level of energy efficiency using low carbon energy sources and production technologies. It also adopts patterns of consumption and behavior that are consistent with low levels of greenhouse gas emissions in the urban areas. The planning of the fast developing region of Iskandar Malaysia, which is located in southern part of Peninsular Malaysia, provides a good opportunity for urban managers to incorporate the ideas of low carbon cities in this proposed high growth urban conurbation. This paper aims to explore implementation of the concept and vision of low carbon scenarios and examine the strategies toward the reduction of CO2 emission. This study also prepares a quantitative scenario study on the establishment of low carbon urban development in Iskandar Malaysia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study aims to estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and mitigation potentials in Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in the Southeast Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam, up to 2030. We developed a bottom-up type model named the AFOLUB Model, which calculates GHG mitigations based on the detailed information of specific technologies. The model illustrates producer's behaviour of agricultural production and mitigation technology selection as a result of profit maximization. Using this model, we evaluated mitigations and effective technologies with high mitigation potentials in the sectors. As a result, GHG emissions in agriculture and Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) in the three countries were 149 MtCO2eq/year and 1.0 GtCO2eq/year in 2005 and will increase 1.7 and 1.8 times up to 2030 in the BaU case. Indonesia is the largest emission country among them. We also found that no-regret mitigation technologies are expected to reduce 33MtCO2eq/year in 2030, which corresponds to 22% of agricultural emissions at the 2005 level. Under 10USD/tCO2eq of mitigation cost, 56MtCO2eq/year of emissions can be reduced by midseason drainage (MM) in rice cultivation, high efficient fertilizer application (HEF) to managed soils and Replacement of roughage with concentrates (RRC) etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Most household fuels used in Asian countries are solid fuels such as coal and biomass (firewood, crop residue and animal dung). The particulate matter (PM), CO, NOx and SOx produced through the combustion of these fuels inside the residence for cooking and heating has an adverse impact on people''s health. PM 2.5 in particular, consisting of particles with an aerodynamic diameter of 2.5μm or less, penetrates deep into the lungs and causes respiratory system and circulatory system diseases and so on. As a result, the World Health Organization (WHO) established guideline values for this type of particulate matter in 2005. In this study, the authors focused on PM 2.5 and estimated indoor exposure concentrations for PM 2.5 in 15 Asian countries. For each environment used for cooking, eating, heating and illumination in which people are present temporarily (microenvironment), exposure concentrations were estimated for individual cohorts categorized according to sex, age and occupation status. To establish the residence time in each microenvironment for each of the cohorts, data from time use surveys conducted in individual countries were used. China had the highest estimate for average exposure concentration in microenvironment used for cooking at 427.5μg/m3 , followed by Nepal, Laos and India at 285.2μg/m3, 266.3μg/m3 and 205.7μg/m3 , respectively. The study found that, in each country, the PM2.5 exposure concentration was highest for children and unemployed women between the ages of 35 and 64. The study also found that the exposure concentration for individual cohorts in each country was greatly affected by people''s use of time indoors. Because differences in individual daily life activities were reflected in the use of time and linked to an assessment of exposure to indoor air-polluting substances, the study enabled detailed assessment of the impact of exposure. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Agricultural activities account for almost 50 and 60% of the total anthropogenic CH4 and N2O emissions, respectively in 2005 (IPCC. 2007. Climate change 2007. Mitigation of climate change, Working Group III contribution to the fourth assessment report of the intergovermental panel on climate change summary for policymakers and technical summary). Thus, we developed an integrated model to estimate global CH4 and N2O emissions and reduction potentials related to agricultural production from 2000 to 2030. In this model, the amounts of implemented countermeasures for greenhouse gas mitigation are calculated as an optimal problem to minimize the total reduction costs under several marginal abatement costs. As a result, we determined the most cost-effective countermeasures, regions and emission sources with high reduction potentials in 2030. Global CH4 and N2O emission in agricultural activities was 4.0 GtCO2 eq/year in 2000 and will increase to approximately 40% (up to 5.6 GtCO2 eq/year) by 2030. Moreover, in 2030, the total maximum reduction potential will be about 1.4 GtCO2 eq/year which accounts for 35% of the total of CH4 and N2O emissions in agriculture in 2000. Particularly, livestock manure management and rice paddy are expected to be emission sources that have high reduction potentials. We identified a “daily spread of manure” as one low-cost countermeasure with high reduction potential based on the analysis of reduction potentials by countermeasures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study, we developed a method of estimating global carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus flows caused by human activity. To describe these flows, we propose Global Carbon, Nitrogen, and Phosphorus Account Tables (GCNPAT). In order to estimate these flows, we used input–output tables, trade statistics and various industrial production statistics as the input data. In addition, we developed a calculation method based on material balance approach, coupled with a concept of “material density”. The material density is defined as the weight of the material included in commodities of one monetary unit. This calculation method is to estimate consistent values with related statistics of sector''s and countries'' productions and also trade flows. We estimated the year 2001 tables to demonstrate our method. The results showed that humankind took 13,392 Tg of carbon, 248 Tg of nitrogen, and 29.2 Tg of phosphorus from the environment in 2001. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Japan's long-term CO2 emission reduction scenarios are assessed with a computable general equilibrium model with recursive dynamics, which was modified in order to assess the effects of renewable energy supply. The period of assessment is from 2000 to 2050 and the increase of gross domestic product per capita was assumed to be 2% per year. The following scenarios in which the level of CO2 emissions in 2050 will be 30% of the level in 1990 or less are proposed: (1) if the renewable energy supply in 2050 is less than the actual potential, an energy intensity improvement of 2.6% per year will bring about a CO2 emission level of 81 MtC in 2050; (2) if the electricity from renewable energy in 2050 can be supplied to the physical potential, and instead of solar heat, 50% more biomass energy can be supplied than the physical potential, the CO2 emission level in 2050 will be 86 MtC by achieving a 2.0% per year energy intensity improvement. When the above two scenarios are appropriately combined, the CO2 emission level in 2050 becomes 66 MtC. In addition to energy efficiency improvement and renewable energy supply, changes in economic activity such as lower material input and higher labor productivity are also important to achieve the above target. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerous CO2 emission scenarios have recently been proposed. However, the time ranges of most scenarios are not long enough to allow analysis of their climate implications. An extrapolation method is proposed to link the emission scenarios with atmospheric stabilization targets that take effect centuries after the scenario period. Using this method, emission scenarios proposed previously are extensively applied to 350 to 750 ppmv CO2 targets during the 23rd century, and allowable emission ranges during the 21st century are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The AIM/top-down model is a recursive general equilibrium model used to analyze the post-Kyoto scenarios presented by EMF 16. Differences among scenarios mainly arise from the setting of emission trading. Japan's marginal cost is the highest among the Annex I countries except New Zealand, where a relatively high emission reduction is necessary, while the highest GDP loss is observed in the USA in 2010 in the no trading case. The marginal costs are much less in the global trading case. The countries of the former Soviet Union sell emission rights and the USA buys the largest amount of them. Emission reductions by trading will account for a large part of the total emission reductions if there is no restriction on trading. The GDP gain of the former Soviet Union is the largest in 2010 in the trading cases. The GDP change in Middle East Asia is negative, and reaches the highest level in the no trading case. Carbon leakage is particularly observed in the no trading case. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims at the development of Thailand’s low-carbon society in 2030 by using the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Extended Snap Shot model for analysis of greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation through renewable energy (RE) utilization. This article presents the potentials of RE in power generation, industrial, and transport sectors in Thailand for GHG mitigation in 2030. The deployment of the RE sources is used in the analyses with potentials of mini-hydro of 390 MW, wind power of 960 MW, solar power of 600 MW, biomass energy of 4,400 MW, biogas power of 144 MW, waste to power of 192 MW, bioenergy of 4,634 ktoe, and RE for thermal of 8,088 ktoe in 2030. According to the proposed development, the amount of GHG emissions is estimated based on business-as-usual (BAU) without mitigation measures and countermeasures with GHG mitigation options of adopted RE technologies available during 2005–2030. Results show that annual GHG emissions in the base year of 2005 are 185,983 kt-CO2. In 2030 the GHG emissions in the BAU scenario will increase to 563,730 kt-CO2or 3.03 times higher than the base year 2005. The GHG emissions in the 2030 can be decreased dramatically to 443,043 kt-CO2, and accounted for 21.4% of GHG reduction by deployment of RE technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Detailed energy end-use technology information is considered within a CGE model. [•] Aggregated macro results of the detailed model are similar to traditional model. [•] The detailed model shows unique characteristics in the household sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this study, we simulate global CO2 emissions and their reduction potentials in the industrial sector up to the year 2030. Future industrial CO2 emissions depend on changes in both technology and industrial activity. However, earlier bottom-up analyses mainly focused on technology change. In this study, we estimate changes in both technology and industrial activity. We developed a three-part simulation system. The first part is a macro economic model that simulates macro economic indicators, such as GDP and value added by sector. The second part consists of industrial production models that simulate future steel and cement production. The third part is a bottom-up type technology model that estimates future CO2 emissions. Assuming no changes in technology since 2005, we estimate that global CO2 emissions in 2030 increase by 15 GtCO2 from 2005 level. This increase is due to growth in industrial production. Introducing technological reduction options within 100 US$/tCO2 provides a reduction potential of 5.3 GtCO2 compared to the case of no technology changes. As a result, even with large technological reduction potential, global industrial CO2 emissions in 2030 are estimated to be higher as compared to 2005 level because of growth of industrial production. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Although several central and local governments around the world have set long term low-carbon targets, they do not always have concrete plans toward the goals. In order to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission significantly, various kinds of measures in various sectors will be required. Some measures reduce GHG emissions directly and are called “direct measures” in this study. To implement those direct measures by the target year, indirect measures are also required, such as economic incentives, regulations, and urban planning. This study proposes a method to develop a concrete long-term schedule of direct and indirect measures, a “roadmap,” based on the idea of backcasting. To formulate the implementation of and relations between measures, and to estimate the concrete schedule to achieve the targets, we developed a model called “backcasting tool” (BCT). Given the information of measures including GHG emission reduction by measures, required resource input and maximum total resource input, and so on, BCT estimates the progress of the measures from the current to the target year. The method was applied in Kyoto City with a low-carbon target, 40% reduction in CO2 emission from fossil fuel by 2030 compared with 1990. Using BCT, we showed that a detailed schedule consists of about 100 measures classified into six fields. The result shows it is possible to achieve the target if all the measures, both direct and indirect, are implemented in time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evaluates investment as a robust adaptation strategy in response to projected climate change in China. Modern optimal economic growth theory; Relations between flood prevention infrastructure and flood damage to agricultural and non-agricultural sectors; Marginal adaptation costs to flood damage.

This paper performs energy model hindcasting which compared the historical energy simulation results with the observations. We used one of the Integrated Assessment Models and simulated global historical energy consumption from 1981 to 2010 associated with exogenous socioeconomic assumptions, as is typically performed for future scenario. The simulation period was chosen with consideration of data availability and structural constancy of the model. Based on comparison with observations, there are three main findings. First, the global aggregated primary energy shows high reproducibility. In terms of energy source specific results, the fitness in electricity, coal, and biomass consumption were high. However, that of crude oil and natural gas is lower than others. This could be due to the price elasticity assumption, implying that the model can be improved with regard to this element. Second, the reproducibility increases as the simulation is close to the base year 2005. Third, although the global aggregated information shows high reproducibility, some disaggregated regions have lower reproducibility. Furthermore, high income countries tend to show higher reproducibility than in low income countries. Given the uncertainties in the ability of IAMs to reproduce certain aspects of the energy system, forecasts must be treated with caution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a new climate change mitigation assessment method focusing on agriculture, forestry, and land-use change sectors by coupling the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with a bottom-up type technology model. The CGE model covers the entire economic market, but includes a rough description of mitigation measures, whereas the bottom-up type technology model takes into account abatement cost and mitigation effects of individual mitigation measures, but only focuses on a few sectors. The coupled framework enables us to connect relevant conditions and to complement the shortcomings of each model. As a test, we applied our method to Indonesia, which has set a national greenhouse gas emissions reduction target for 2020. A large proportion of Indonesia's greenhouse gas emissions are from the land-use sector. We assessed the differences in modeling behaviors between the CGE models with and without coupling the bottom-up type model. The two primary findings were: 1) consumption loss estimated by the coupled CGE (1.2%) was larger than the loss estimated by the uncoupled model (0.5%), because the emission reduction estimated by the bottom-up model was less than the standalone CGE's estimate; and 2) consumption loss caused by achieving the reduction target by 2020 in Indonesia strongly depends on the assumption of mitigation costs and available land area for the emission reduction measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy is a commodity which impacts heavily upon the competitiveness of a country in the global scale. Thus, nations have begun to understand that utilization of energy affects its economic performance. In recent times, there has been a drive for global awareness on Low Carbon Society (LCS) measures, where carbon mitigation is at the forefront. Thus, this paper analyses the LCS measures for the Thai industrial sector. Thai industrial sector is the second highest CO 2 emitting end-use sector and contributes approximately 30% to the national income of Thailand. The total CO 2 emission from end use sectors in 2010 was 119 Mton-CO 2 and approximately 38% constituted industrial sector emissions. The primary objective of this research study is to quantitatively analyse the carbon mitigation possible in the Thai industrial sector and the co-benefits which accrue along with mitigation in various policy pathway scenarios. Thai industrial sector was modeled using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM)/Enduse. Three groups of scenarios under LCS, emission tax and reduction target principles were modeled along with the BAU case. Results show that LCS scenarios are capable of cumulative mitigation of approximately 35% by 2050 in comparison to the BAU case and the predominant technologies are the 2nd generation biomass and the CCS technology. The emission tax scenarios, where tax rates of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 were enforced show a maximum of 55% cumulative mitigation by 2050. Even though this reduction is higher than the LCS scenarios, there is no shift to long term renewable or sustainable technologies in the emission tax scenarios. The same applies to reduction target scenarios as well. The co-benefits, which were measured along the themes of energy security and local air pollutant mitigation show maximum benefits accruing to the LCS scenarios, where renewable fuel share increases, whilst primary energy intensity and carbon intensity decreases. The LCS scenarios also show a mitigation of local air pollutants such as SO 2 and Particulate Matter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy plays a dominant role in determining the individual competitiveness of a country and this is more relevant to emerging economies. That being said, energy also plays an important and ever expanding role in carbon emissions and sustainability of the country. As a developing country Thailand's industrial sector is vibrant and robust and consumes majority of the energy. In addition, it also has the highest CO2 emissions, provided the emissions of power generation are taken into account. Industry also accounts for the highest consumption of electricity in Thailand. The objective of this study is to model the Thai industrial energy sector and estimate the mitigation potential for the timeframe of 2010-2050 using the principles of Low Carbon Society (LCS). In addition, the paper would also evaluate emission tax as a key driver of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) mitigation along with Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) analysis. Another secondary objective is to analyse the impact of mitigation on energy security of the industrial sector. The Thai industrial sector was modelled using AIM/Enduse model, which is a recursive dynamic optimisation model belonging to the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thai industrial sector was divided into nine sub-sectors based on national economic reporting procedures. Results suggest that the mitigation potential in 2050, compared to the Baseline scenario, is around 20% with positive impacts on energy security. The Baseline emission will approximately be 377 Mt-CO2 in the industrial sector. All four indicators of energy security, Primary Energy Intensity, Carbon Intensity, Oil Share and Diversification of Fuel Share would exhibit enhanced energy security levels. The new Counter Measures (CM) proposed, such as, new and advanced technologies and fuel switching would drive the mitigation levels. Increase in energy efficiency of heating and electricity use would reduce the primary energy demand and intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During 1990–2010, the power generation sector has been the highest energy consuming and CO 2 emitting sector while the residential and building sectors have been the largest electricity consuming sector, accounted for about 57.1% of overall electricity consumption in Thailand. This study employed AIM/Enduse model to investigate the CO 2 reduction measures which are related to the marginal abatement cost (MAC) in the long term planning. Seven mitigation measures by replacing existing energy devices with more efficient ones based on the data currently available on the market are implemented: (1) efficient lighting devices, (2) efficient cooling devices, (3) efficient heating devices, (4) efficient other electrical devices, (5) efficient cooking devices, (6) Insulated houses, and (7) building codes. Results indicate that in the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario between 2010 and 2050, the energy demand and CO 2 emissions would increase to 39,140 ktoe and 52,047 kt-CO 2 , respectively. By adopting these policy strategies, energy demand can be reduced by about 42.7% of total energy demand in 2050 while CO 2 emissions can be mitigated by 35.0% of overall CO 2 emissions in 2050. The efficient cooling devices will contribute to the largest CO 2 reduction in 2050 with low MAC when compared to other measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we draw up future roadmaps for technologies, policies, and optimal investment timing toward the achievement of a low-carbon society (LCS) in Japan by 2050. Future pathways for Japan to follow are calculated using an analytical model based on a backcasting methodology. Early actions can lead to pathways for minimizing the costs toward a LCS in Japan. However, to take early actions, large investments will be needed at the initial stages. The investment requirements for the residential and commercial sector and transportation sector will be especially costly: The former reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2025 and the latter reaching 2.5 trillion JPY annually from 2010 to 2015. There are four main advantages to early actions. (1) Technologies have learning-by-doing effects: The additional cost of reducing CO2 emissions will fall as the technologies spread. (2) If actions are delayed, learning-by-doing effects may fail to work sufficiently, resulting in higher total investment requirements for achieving a LCS. (3) No infrastructure can be built immediately; hence it would be difficult to switch suddenly to a LCS in the years just before 2050. (4) Future technological development has several uncertainties. If the development of one of the currently dominant technologies falls behind schedule, it will fail to spread as expected and CO2 emission targets will not be met. Early actions will open up new opportunities for the spread of alternative actions toward the LCS should a dominant technology fail in some way. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assessed the impact of climate change on rice production in Asia in comprehensive consideration of the process/parameter uncertainty in general circulation models (GCMs). After inputting future climate scenarios based on the projections of GCMs for three Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (18 GCMs for A1B, 14 GCMs for A2, and 17 GCMs for B1) into a crop model, we calculated the average change in production (A CP), the standard deviation of the change in production (SD CP), and the probability of a production decrease (P PD) for each SRES scenario, taking into account the effect of CO2 fertilization. In the 2020s, P PD values were high for all SRES scenarios because the negative impacts of climate change were larger than the positive effects of CO2 fertilization in almost all climate scenarios in the near future. This suggests that it will be necessary to take immediate adaptive actions, regardless of the emission scenario, in the near future. In the 2080s, there were large differences in A CP, SD CP, and P PD among the SRES scenarios. The scenario with the highest atmospheric CO2 concentration, A2, showed a notable decrease in production and a high P PD in the 2080s compared with the other scenarios, despite having the largest CO2 fertilization effect. In addition, A2 had the largest SD CP among the SRES scenarios. On the other hand, the scenario with the lowest atmospheric CO2 concentration, B1, showed a small decrease in production, and a much smaller SD CP and a much lower P PD, than in the case of A2. These results for the 2080s suggest that a reduction in CO2 emissions in the long term has great potential not only to mitigate decreases in rice production, but also to reduce the uncertainty in these changes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This article envisions a future in which advances in technology and urban development have transformed Japanese society by 2050, resulting in significant greenhouse gas reductions. Pathways leading Japan towards a low-carbon society are calculated using a scenario approach based on back-casting' techniques. It is possible to reach a 70% reduction in 002 emissions through a combination of demand-side and supply-side actions. On the demand side, reductions of 40-45% are possible through efficiency improvements, decreased population and the more rational use of energy despite increased energy demands arising in certain sectors. On the supply side, 002 emissions can be reduced through a combination of the appropriate choice of low-carbon energy sources (including carbon capture and storage) and improving energy efficiency. The estimated direct annual cost of technology to achieve this by 2050 is 6.7-9.8 trillion yen, approximately 1% of the estimated 2050 GDP However, this excludes costs involved in infrastructure investments with aims other than climate policy (e.g. strengthening international competitiveness, improving security, enhancing urban development, and reinforcing energy). To avoid investing in its current high-carbon-emitting infrastructure, Japan must develop long-term strategies to create the necessary technological and societal innovations and to channel the appropriate financial resources for intensive economy-wide change, such as development of land, urban areas, and buildings, improvements in industrial structures, and new technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-CO2 gas (CH4, N2O and F gas) emissions account for 25 percent of all greenhouse gas in the year of 2000. Main sources of CH4 and N2O emissions are agriculture-related activities such as enteric fermentation, paddy rice cultivation, soil management. A recursive dynamic CGE (Computer General Equilibrium) model has been developed to analyze greenhouse gas reduction options including non-CO2 gas abatement technologies. Multi-regional, multi-sectoral and multi-gas CGE model and simple climate change model simulated long-term climate stabilization emission path. Preliminary results showed that multi gas mitigation options including CH4 and N2O abatement technologies will reduce GDP loss more than CO2 only mitigation options for long-term climate stabilization, even though CO2 mitigation options will reduce not only CO2 emissions but non-CO2 gas emissions simultaneously. It is necessary to collect regional non-CO2 gas data (emission, technology options, and so on) and conduct more sensitivity analysis with computer simulation model to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 gas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objectives of this study were to carry out a review of mitigation scenarios that have emerged since the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Third Assessment Report (TAR), to update the current Emissions Scenarios Database with these scenarios, and to analyze emissions and mitigation scenarios. This article first discusses the characterization of mitigation scenarios and systematically classifies mitigation scenarios. Second, quantitative analyses on gross domestic product (GDP), population, carbon intensity, energy intensity, and carbon taxes are conducted at the regional level in the four regional aggregations used by the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. Results show that the range of emissions trajectories is extensive and that the maximum potential mitigation of global CO2 emissions from the baseline level by 2100 is around 95%. There is a correlation between GDP growth and energy intensity improvement. The relationship between energy intensity improvement and carbon intensity reduction changes over the 21st century, with energy intensity improvement outweighing carbon intensity reduction in the first half of the century and carbon intensity reduction becoming more dominant in the latter half. Predicted carbon tax levels for 2100 range from around 50 to 1400 US$/t-C, although a uniform level of carbon tax brings about widely varying CO2 mitigation outcomes across different regions. The range of GDP loss, resulting from CO2 emissions mitigation, varies from -10% to 40% in 2100, with GDP losses in developing regions more evident than those in developed regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a bottom-up model, the effectiveness of carbon tax policy and a policy mix related to a carbon tax in Japan are assessed to reduce CO2 emissions to the targeted level in the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol. In this simulation, only existing technologies and practical new technologies are treated. From the results of the bottom-up model, the necessary carbon tax to achieve the target, a 2% reduction of the CO2 emissions in 1990, is found to be 45000 Japanese yen (JPY)/tC. If the tax revenue is used to decrease the CO2 reduction cost as a policy mix related to the carbon tax, the required tax rate is decreased to 3400J PY/tC. In this simulation, the technologies that make the greatest contribution to CO2 emission reduction are highly efficient gasoline vehicles in the transportation sector, and high-performance motors with inverter control and steel industry energy-saving devices in the industrial sector. The CO2 reduction achieved by these technologies accounts for 44% of the CO2 reduction in the final energy-demand sectors. The quantity of CO2 reduction in the residential sector is almost the same as that in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the additional money granted to the industrial sector is less than 30% of that granted to the residential sector, because the price of subsidized technologies in the industrial sector is less than 15000 JPY/tC, whereas 27% of the subsidized technologies in the residential sector are more expensive than 15000 JPY/tC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We have been developing a policy support tool, AIM/impact[policy], for use in the integrated assessment of global warming control targets including the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations, economically efficient emissions paths to realizing these targets, and consequent impacts and risks of these targets. In this study, a quantitative assessment was made of climate changes and global warming impacts, as well as the timing of greenhouse gas reduction policies, under greenhouse gas stabilization constraints. An energy economic model estimating the optimal emissions path for greenhouse gases and an impact assessment model estimating the impacts of global warming in various fields caused by climate changes under this optimal emissions path were used in our assessment. In contrast to the business-as-usual case, our results showed that in order to maintain greenhouse gas concentrations at less than 500 ppm (by volume), reduction volumes must be 3.0 GtCeq/year by 2020 and 12.2 GtCeq/year by 2050, indicating an urgent need for a full-scale reduction system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to respond to climate change, it is essential to describe possible future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trajectories in both nonintervention and intervention terms. This paper analyzes long-term GHG mitigation emission scenarios according to alternative development paths in the world and major regions, based on the nonintervention emission scenarios quantified by the Asian-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM). AIM is revised and applied to the quantification of narrative storylines for scenarios of socioeconomic development, and GHG emissions from energy use, land-use change, and industrial production processes are simulated. A wide range of mitigation policies are adopted in this simulation as responses to the climate change. Several target stabilized levels–650, 550 and 450 ppmv–are analyzed. The results show that to achieve stabilization at a different GHG concentration level, a policy package is essential to reach the target concentration level, rather than a single policy. Energy efficiency improvement will be a key contributor to the reduction of GHG emissions as a result of the policy package. The mitigation cost could be at a medium level, without a large loss of economic growth. The developing world could significantly reduce GHG emissions compared with nonmitigation scenarios with sufficient knowledge transfer from developed countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios in China. Details of the socioeconomic development and energy activities; Policy implication of GHG emission; Role of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change on the study of GHG emission scenarios.