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Differentiating thermokarst basin sediments with respect to the involved processes and environmental conditions is an important tool to understand permafrost landscape dynamics and scenarios and future trajectories in a warming Arctic and Subarctic. Thermokarst basin deposits have complex sedimentary structures due to the variability of Yedoma source sediments, reworking during the Late Glacial to Holocene climate changes, and different stages of thermokarst history. Here we reconstruct the dynamic growth of thermokarst lakes and basins and related changes of depositional conditions preserved in sediment sequences using a combination of biogeochemical data and robust grain-size endmember analysis (rEMMA). This multi-proxy approach is used on 10 sediment cores (each 300–400 cm deep) from two key thermokarst sites to distinguish four time slices that describe the Holocene thermokarst (lake) basin evolution in Central Yakutia (CY). Biogeochemical proxies and rEMMA reveal fine-grained sedimentation with rather high lake levels and/or reducing conditions, and coarse-grained sedimentation with rather shallow lake levels and/or oxidizing (i.e. terrestrial) conditions in relation to distal and proximal depositional and post-sedimentary conditions. Statistical analysis suggests that the biogeochemical parameters are almost independent of thermokarst deposit sedimentology. Thus, the biogeochemical parameters are considered as signals of secondary (post-sedimentary) reworking. The rEMMA results are clearly reflecting grain-size variations and depositional conditions. This indicates small-scale varying depositional environments, frequently changing lake levels, and predominantly lateral expansion at the edges of rapidly growing small thermokarst lakes and basins. These small bodies finally coalesced, forming the large thermokarst basins we see today in CY. Considering previous paleoenvironmental reconstructions in Siberia, we show the initiation of thaw and subsidence during the Late Glacial to Holocene transition between about 11 and 9 cal kyrs BP, intensive and extensive thermokarst activity for the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) at about 7 to 5 cal kyrs BP, severely fluctuating water levels and further lateral basin growth between 3.5 cal kyrs BP and 1.5 cal kyrs BP, and the cessation of thermokarst activity and extensive frost-induced processes (i.e. permafrost aggradation) after about 1.5 cal kyrs BP. However, gradual permafrost warming over recent decades, in addition to human impacts, has led to renewed high rates of subsidence and abrupt, rapid CY thermokarst processes. • Small thermokarst lakes and basins grew rapidly during the Holocene Thermal Maximum. • Short-term phases of forcing climate lead to very active thermokarst processes. • Endmember analysis reveals different depositional environments in growing lakes. • Distal and proximal depositional and post-sedimentary conditions are differentiated. • Sedimentological and biogeochemical characteristics are weakly correlated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the effects of vegetation cover and soil parameters on the climate change projections of a regional climate model over the Arctic domain. Different setups of the land surface model of the regional climate model HIRHAM were realized to analyze differences in the atmospheric circulation caused by (1) the incorporation of freezing/thawing of soil moisture, (2) the consideration of top organic soil horizons typical for the Arctic and (3) a vegetation shift due to a changing climate. The largest direct thermal effect in 2 m air temperature was found for the vegetation shift, which ranged between −1.5 K and 3 K. The inclusion of a freeze/thaw scheme for soil moisture shows equally large sensitivities in spring over cool areas with high soil moisture content. Although the sensitivity signal in 2 m air temperature for the experiments differs in amplitude, all experiments show changes in mean sea level pressure (mslp) and geopotential height (z) throughout the troposphere of similar magnitude (mslp: −2 hPa to 1.5 hPa, z: −15 gpm to 5 gpm). This points to the importance of dynamical feedbacks within the atmosphere-land system. Land and soil processes have a distinct remote influence on large scale atmospheric circulation patterns in addition to their direct, regional effects. The assessment of induced uncertainties due to the changed implementations of land surface processes discussed in this study demonstrates the need to take all those processes for future Arctic climate projections into account, and demonstrates a clear need to include similar implementations in regional and global climate models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Arctic temperature is analyzed in view of its extremes based on climate indices derived from daily mean, maximum, and minimum temperature. This analysis is done for the pan Arctic domain and region-specific for the eastern and western Russian Arctic. The variability of temperature-related indices over the last four decades is presented, in which the spatial distribution and regional differences as well as its temporal trends are discussed. The analysis is based on ERA40 data and station data in the Russian Arctic. Station-based results for 1958–2008 show a significant decrease of frost days (−0.8days/decade) over the eastern Russian Arctic in spring. The trends in warm (cold) spell days are not statistically significant; except in western Russian Arctic in summer for cold spell days (−2days/decade). The inter-annual variability of the indices is large and shows pronounced decadal variations. ERA40 data generally reproduce well the inter-annual variability in the climate indices as seen in observations, but they show some deficiencies in the magnitudes and trends of the indices. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The present study examines the formation history and cryolithological properties of the late-Pleistocene Yedoma Ice Complex (IC) and its Holocene cover in the eastern Lena delta on Sobo-Sise Island. The sedimentary sequence was continuously sampled at 0.5 m resolution at a vertical Yedoma cliff starting from 24.2 m above river level (a.r.l.). The sequence differentiates into three cryostratigraphic units: Unit A, dated from ca. 52 to 28 cal kyr BP; Unit B, dated from ca. 28 to 15 cal kyr BP; Unit C, dated from ca. 7 to 0 cal kyr BP. Three chronologic gaps in the record are striking. The hiatus during the interstadial marine isotope stage (MIS) 3 (36–29 cal kyr BP) as well as during stadial MIS 2 (20–17 cal kyr BP) might be related to fluvial erosion and/or changed discharge patterns of the Lena river caused by repeated outburst floods from the glacial Lake Vitim in southern Siberia along the Lena river valley towards the Arctic Ocean. The hiatus during the MIS 2–1 transition (15–7 cal kyr BP) is a commonly observed feature in permafrost chronologies due to intense thermokarst activity of the deglacial period. The chronologic gaps of the Sobo-Sise Yedoma record are similarly found at two neighbouring Yedoma IC sites on Bykovsky Peninsula and Kurungnakh-Sise Island and are most likely of regional importance. The three cryostratigraphic units of the Sobo-Sise Yedoma exhibit distinct signatures in properties of their clastic, organic, and ice components. Higher permafrost aggradation rates of 1 m kyr -1 with higher organic-matter (OM) stocks (29 ± 15 kg C m -3 , 2.2 ± 1.0 kg N m -3 ; Unit A) and mainly coarse silt are found for the interstadial MIS 3 if compared to the stadial MIS 2 with 0.7 m kyr -1 permafrost aggradation, lower OM stocks (14 ± 8 kg C m -3 , 1.4 ± 0.4 kg N m -3 ; Unit B), and pronounced peaks in the coarse-silt and medium-sand fractions. Geochemical signatures of intra-sedimental ice reflect the differences in summer evaporation and moisture regime by higher ion content and less depleted ratios of stable δ18 O and stable δ D isotopes but lower deuterium excess (d) values during interstadial MIS 3 if compared to stadial MIS 2. The δ18 O and δ D composition of MIS 3 and MIS 2 ice wedges shows characteristic well-depleted values and low d values, while MIS 1 ice wedges have elevated mean d values between 11 ‰ and 15 ‰ and surprisingly low δ18 O and δ D values. Hence, the isotopic difference between late-Pleistocene and Holocene ice wedges is more pronounced in d than in δ values. The present study of the permafrost exposed at the Sobo-Sise Yedoma cliff provides a comprehensive cryostratigraphic inventory, insights into permafrost aggradation, and degradation over the last approximately 52 kyr as well as their climatic and morphodynamic controls on the regional scale of the central Laptev Sea coastal region in NE Siberia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Characteristics of cyclones (frequency, intensity and size) and their changes in the Arctic region in a warmer climate have been analyzed with the use of the HIRHAM regional climate model simulations with SRES-A1B anthropogenic scenario for the twenty first century. The focus was on cyclones for the warm (April-September) and cold (October-March) seasons. The present-day cyclonic characteristics from HIRHAM simulations are in general agreement with those from ERA-40 reanalysis data. Differences noted for the frequency of cyclones are related with different spatial resolution in the model simulations and reanalysis data. Potential future changes in cyclone characteristics at the end of the twenty first century have been analyzed. According to the model simulations, the frequency of cyclones is increasing in warm seasons and decreasing in cold seasons for a warmer climate in the twenty first century, but these changes are statistically insignificant. Noticeable changes were detected for the intensity and size of cyclones for the both seasons. Significant increase was found for the frequency of weak cyclones during cold season. Further, a general increase in the frequency of small cyclones was calculated in cold seasons, while its frequency decreases in warm seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity (frequency, depth and size) in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with state-of-the-art regional climate models (RCMs) from the Arctic-CORDEX initiative and global climate models (GCMs) from CMIP5 under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario. Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter (DJF) and a decrease in summer (JJA) to the end of the 21st century. However, in one half of the RCMs, cyclones become weaker and substantially smaller in winter and deeper and larger in summer. RCMs as well as GCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency over the Baffin Bay, Barents Sea, north of Greenland, Canadian Archipelago, and a decrease over the Nordic Seas, Kara and Beaufort Seas and over the sub-arctic continental regions in winter. In summer, the models simulate an increase of cyclone frequency over the Central Arctic and Greenland Sea and a decrease over the Norwegian and Kara Seas by the end of the 21st century. The decrease is also found over the high-latitude continental areas, in particular, over east Siberia and Alaska. The sensitivity of the RCMs' projections to the boundary conditions and model physics is estimated. In general, different lateral boundary conditions from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM projections than the differences in RCMs' setup and/or physics. • Changes in the characteristics of cyclone activity in the Arctic are analyzed based on simulations with RCMs (Arctic-CORDEX) • Most of RCMs show an increase of cyclone frequency in winter and a decrease in summer to the end of the 21st century • Different lateral BCs from the GCMs have larger effects on the simulated RCM's than setup and/or physics [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost is an Essential Climate Variable (ECV) within the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), which is characterized by subsurface temperatures and the depth of the seasonal thaw layer. Complementing ground-based monitoring networks, the Permafrost CCI project funded by the European Space Agency (ESA) 2018-2021 will establish Earth Observation (EO) based products for the permafrost ECV spanning the last two decades. Since ground temperature and thaw depth cannot be directly observed from space-borne sensors, we will ingest a variety of satellite and reanalysis data in a ground thermal model, which allows to quantitatively characterize the changing permafrost systems in Arctic and High-Mountain areas. As recently demonstrated for the Lena River Delta in Northern Siberia, the algorithm uses remotely sensed data sets of Land Surface Temperature (LST), Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) and landcover to drive the transient permafrost model CryoGrid 2, which yields ground temperature at various depths, in addition to thaw depth. For the circumpolar CCI product, we aim for a spatial resolution of 1km, and ensemble runs will be performed for each pixel to represent the subgrid variability of snow and land cover. The performance of the transient algorithm crucially depends on the correct representation of ground properties, in particular ice and organic contents. Therefore, the project will compile a new subsurface stratigraphy product which also holds great potential for improving Earth System Model results in permafrost environments.We present simulation runs for various permafrost regions and characterize the accuracy and ability to reproduce trends against ground-based data. Finally, we evaluate the feasibility of future "permafrost reanalysis" products, exploiting the information content of various satellite products to deliver the best possible estimate for the permafrost thermal state over a range of spatial scales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]