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3. Climate Action Failure Highlighted as Leading Global Risk by Both Scientists and Business Leaders

Author

Wynes, Seth, primary, Garard, Jennifer, additional, Fajardo, Paola, additional, Aoyagi, Midori, additional, Burkins, Melody, additional, Chaudhari, Kalpana, additional, Forrester, Terrence, additional, Garschagen, Matthias, additional, Hudson, Paul, additional, Ivanova, Maria, additional, Maibach, Edward, additional, Stevance, Anne‐Sophie, additional, Wood, Sylvia, additional, and Matthews, Damon, additional

Published
2022
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8. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, Williamson, Phil, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., and Zhou, B.

Published
2021

9. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Canadell, Josep G., Monteiro, Pedro M.S., Costa, Marcos H., Cunha, Leticia Cotrim Da, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Henson, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii A., Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Hervé, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garçon, Véronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Quéré, Corinne Le, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, Macdougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O’sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallée, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A.G., I.Seneviratne, Sonia, Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik H., Williamson, Phil, Brovkin, Victor, Feely, Richard A., Lebehot, Alice D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Aptel, Florence, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Processus et interactions de fine échelle océanique (PROTEO), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2021

10. Global Carbon and other Biogeochemical Cycles and Feedbacks

Author

Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B., Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, Williamson, Phil, Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P., Pirani, A., Conners, S. L., Pean, C., Berger, S., Caud, N., Chen, Y., Goldfarb, L., Gomis, M. I., Huang, M., Leitzell, K., Lonnoy, E., Matthews, J. B. R., Maycock, T. K., Waterfield, T., Yelekci, O., Yu, R., Zhou, B., Costa, Marcos H., Cotrim da Cunha, Leticia, Cox, Peter M., Eliseev, Alexey V., Hensen, Stephanie, Ishii, Masao, Jaccard, Samuel, Koven, Charles, Lohila, Annalea, Patra, Prabir K., Piao, Shilong, Rogelj, Joeri, Syampungani, Stephen, Zaehle, Sönke, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Alexandrov, Georgii, Bala, Govindasamy, Bopp, Laurent, Boysen, Lena, Cao, Long, Chandra, Naveen, Ciais, Philippe, Denisov, Sergey N., Dentener, Frank J., Douville, Herve, Fay, Amanda, Forster, Piers, Fox-Kemper, Baylor, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fu, Weiwei, Fuss, Sabine, Garcon, Veronique, Gier, Bettina, Gillett, Nathan P., Gregor, Luke, Haustein, Karsten, Haverd, Vanessa, He, Jian, Hewitt, Helene T., Hoffman, Forrest M., Ilyina, Tatiana, Jackson, Robert, Jones, Christopher, Keller, David P., Kwiatkowski, Lester, Lamboll, Robin D., Lan, Xin, Laufkötter, Charlotte, Le Quere, Corinne, Lenton, Andrew, Lewis, Jared, Liddicoat, Spencer, Lorenzoni, Laura, Lovenduski, Nicole, MacDougall, Andrew H., Mathesius, Sabine, Matthews, Damon H., Meinshausen, Malte, Mokhov, Igor I., Naik, Vaishali, Nicholls, Zebedee R. J., Nurhati, Intan Suci, O'Sullivan, Michael, Peters, Glen, Pongratz, Julia, Poulter, Benjamin, Sallee, Jean-Baptiste, Saunois, Marielle, Schuur, Edward A. G., Seneviratne, Sonia I., Stavert, Ann, Suntharalingam, Parvadha, Tachiiri, Kaoru, Terhaar, Jens, Thompson, Rona, Tian, Hanqin, Turnbull, Jocelyn, Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M., Wang, Xuhui, Wanninkhof, Rik, and Williamson, Phil

Published
2021

18. On the non-proportionality of the effective transient climate response to cumulative emissions

Author

Mengis, Nadine and Matthews, Damon

Abstract

The transient climate response for cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE) enables us to estimate the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given CO2-induced temperature target. However, for this metric to be applicable to calculate the remaining carbon budget for 'real world' observed temperature changes, it needs to take into account the considerable contribution of non-CO2 climate forcers. In recent work this metric has been extended to the concept of the "Effective TCRE," which attempts to represent a similar relationship between CO2-equivalent emissions and total anthropogenic warming. Here we show, that while in the historical period the net-forcing from non-CO2 forcing agents has been approximately proportional to CO2 forcing, it is problematic to assume a similar behaviour for future scenarios. We further show how different assumptions on future non-CO2 climate forcing impact the estimates of the remaining carbon budgets, focussing on the example of the 1.5ºC temperature target.

Published
2018

19. Effect of Carbon-Cycle Uncertainty on Estimates of the 1.5°C Carbon Budget

Author

Mengis, Nadine, Jalbert, Jonathan, Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Matthews, Damon, Mengis, Nadine, Jalbert, Jonathan, Partanen, Antti-Ilari, and Matthews, Damon

Abstract

In December 2015, the participants of the COP21 agreed to pursue efforts to limit global temperature increase to 1.5oC relative to the preindustrial level. A robust estimate of the carbon budget for this temperature target is one precondition for well-informed political discussions. These estimates, however, depend on Earth system models and need to account for model inherent uncertainties. Here, we quantify the effect of carbon cycle uncertainty within an intermediate complexity Earth system model. Using an Bayesian inversion approach we obtain a probabilistic estimate for the 1.5oC carbon budget of 66 PgC with a range of 20 to 112 PgC. This estimate is in good agreement with the IPCC’s estimate, and additionally provides a probabilistic range accounting for uncertainties in the natural carbon sinks. Furthermore our results suggest, that for a long-term temperature stabilization at 1.5oC, negative fossil fuel emissions in the order of 1 PgC yr-1 would be needed. Two effects cause the fossil fuel emissions during temperature stabilization to turn negative: 1) The reduced uptake potential of the natural carbon sinks, which arises from increasing ocean temperatures, and the fact that the land turns from a net carbon sink to a source. 2) The residual positive anthropogenic forcing in the extended scenario, which remains as high as 2.5 W m-2, until the end of 2200. In contrast to previous studies our results suggest the need for negative fossil fuel emissions for a long term temperature stabilization to compensate for residual anthropogenic forcing and a decreasing natural carbon sink potential.

Published
2017

20. Impacts of sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry

Author

Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Keller, David P., Korhonen, Hannele, Matthews, Damon H., Partanen, Antti-Ilari, Keller, David P., Korhonen, Hannele, and Matthews, Damon H.

Abstract

We used an earth system model of intermediate complexity to study the effects of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) by sea spray geoengineering on ocean biogeochemistry. SRM slightly decreased global ocean net primary productivity (NPP) relative to the control run. The lower temperatures in the SRM run decreased NPP directly but also indirectly increased NPP in some regions due to changes in nutrient availability resulting from changes in ocean stratification and circulation. Reduced light availability had a minor effect on global total NPP but a major regional effect near the nutrient rich upwelling region off the coast of Peru, where light availability is the main limiting factor for phytoplankton growth in our model. Unused nutrients from regions with decreased NPP also fueled NPP elsewhere. In the context of RCP4.5 simulation used here, SRM decreased ocean carbon uptake due to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentrations, seawater chemistry, NPP, temperature, and ocean circulation.

Published
2016
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21. Detection and Attribution of Climate Change: from Global to Regional

Author

Bindoff, Nathaniel L., Stott, Peter A., (India), Krishna Mirle AchutaRao, Allen, Myles R., Gillett, Nathan, Gutzler, David, Hansingo, Kabumbwe, Hegerl, Gabriele, Hu, Yongyun, Jain, Suman, Sebbari, Rachid, Zhang, Xuebin, Aldrin, Magne, Sarojini, Beena Balan, Beer, Jürg, Boucher, Olivier, Braconnot, Pascale, Browne, Oliver, Chang, Ping, Christidis, Nikolaos, DelSole, Tim, Domingues, Catia M., Durack, Paul J., Eliseev, Alexey, Emanuel, Kerry, Feingold, Graham, Forest, Chris, Rouco, Jesus Fidel González, Goosse, Hugues, Gray, Lesley, Gregory, Jonathan, Held, Isaac, Holland, Greg, Quintana, Jara Imbers, Ingram, William, Jungclaus, Johann, Kaser, Georg, Kerminen, Veli-Matti, Knutson, Thomas, Knutti, Reto, Kossin, James, Lockwood, Mike, Lohmann, Ulrike, Lott, Fraser, Lu, Jian, Mahlstein, Irina, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Matthews, Damon, Meehl, Gerald, Mendoza, Blanca, Menezes, Viviane Vasconcellos de, Min, Seung-Ki, Mitchell, Daniel, Mölg, Thomas, Morak, Simone, Osborn, Timothy, Otto, Alexander, Otto, Friederike, Pierce, David, Polson, Debbie, Ribes, Aurélien, Rogelj, Joeri, Schurer, Andrew, Semenov, Vladimir, Shindell, Drew, Smirnov, Dmitry, Thorne, Peter W., Wang, Muyin, Wild, Martin, Zhang, Rong, Australia's national university, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 885 10, 2: The Sun's Influence on the Earth's Climate, 2 Evaluation of Detection and Attribution Box 10, 2 Water Cycle, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2014

27. Constraining the Ratio of Global Warming to Cumulative CO2 Emissions Using CMIP5 Simulations*.

Author

Gillett, Nathan P., Arora, Vivek K., Matthews, Damon, and Allen, Myles R.

Subjects
GLOBAL warming, CARBON dioxide, EMISSIONS (Air pollution), GREENHOUSE gas mitigation, CLIMATE change
Abstract

The ratio of warming to cumulative emissions of carbon dioxide has been shown to be approximately independent of time and emissions scenarios and directly relates emissions to temperature. It is therefore a potentially important tool for climate mitigation policy. The transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE), defined as the ratio of global-mean warming to cumulative emissions at CO2 doubling in a 1% yr−1 CO2 increase experiment, ranges from 0.8 to 2.4 K EgC−1 in 15 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5)-a somewhat broader range than that found in a previous generation of carbon-climate models. Using newly available simulations and a new observational temperature dataset to 2010, TCRE is estimated from observations by dividing an observationally constrained estimate of CO2-attributable warming by an estimate of cumulative carbon emissions to date, yielding an observationally constrained 5%-95% range of 0.7-2.0 K EgC−1. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2013
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28. Too Big to Ignore : Global Risk Perception Gaps Between Scientists and Business Leaders

Author

Wynes, Seth, Garard, Jennifer, Fajardo, Paola, Aoyagi, Midori, Burkins, Melody, Chaudhari, Kalpana, Forrester, Terrence, Garschagen, Matthias, Hudson, Paul, Ivanova, Maria, Maibach, Edward, Stevance, Anne-Sophie, Wood, Sylvia, and Matthews, Damon

Abstract

Two major reports assessing global systemic risks have been published recently, presenting large-scale panel data on the risk perceptions of different key communities, most notably business leaders and global change scientists. While both of these global communities agree on ranking environmental risks the highest, followed by societal, geopolitical, technological, and economic risks, business leaders perceive the likelihood of most risks as lower than scientists. This gap implies vexing questions in relation to building a shared sense of urgency and facilitating collective action. These questions need to be addressed through new ways of co-creating risk assessments and strategic futures analysis.

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