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Some patients benefit from a treatment while others may do so less or do not benefit at all. We have previously developed a two-stage network meta-regression prediction model that synthesized randomized trials and evaluates how treatment effects vary across patient characteristics. In this article, we extended this model to combine different sources of types in different formats: aggregate data (AD) and individual participant data (IPD) from randomized and non-randomized evidence. In the first stage, a prognostic model is developed to predict the baseline risk of the outcome using a large cohort study. In the second stage, we recalibrated this prognostic model to improve our predictions for patients enrolled in randomized trials. In the third stage, we used the baseline risk as effect modifier in a network meta-regression model combining AD, IPD randomized clinical trial to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects. We illustrated the approach in the re-analysis of a network of studies comparing three drugs for relapsing--remitting multiple sclerosis. Several patient characteristics influence the baseline risk of relapse, which in turn modifies the effect of the drugs. The proposed model makes personalized predictions for health outcomes under several treatment options and encompasses all relevant randomized and non-randomized evidence.

OBJECTIVES: Previous studies established a causal relationship between occupational benzene exposure and acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, mixed results have been reported for associations between benzene exposure and other myeloid and lymphoid malignancies. Our work examined whether occupational benzene exposure is associated with increased mortality from overall lymphohaematopoietic (LH) cancer and major subtypes. METHODS: Mortality records were linked to a Swiss census-based cohort from two national censuses in 1990 and 2000. Cases were defined as having any LH cancers registered in death certificates. We assessed occupational exposure by applying a quantitative benzene job-exposure matrix (BEN-JEM) to census-reported occupations. Exposure was calculated as the products of exposure proportions and levels (P × L). Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate LH cancer death hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) associated with benzene exposure, continuously and in ordinal categories. RESULTS: Our study included approximately 2.97 million persons and 13 415 LH cancer cases, including 3055 cases with benzene exposure. We observed increased mortality risks per unit (P × L) increase in continuous benzene exposure for AML (HR 1.03, 95% CI 1.00–1.06) and diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04–1.14). When exposure was assessed categorically, increasing trends in risks were observed with increasing benzene exposure for AML (P=0.04), diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (P=0.02), and follicular lymphoma (P=0.05). CONCLUSION: In a national cohort from Switzerland, we found that occupational exposure to benzene is associated with elevated mortality risks for AML, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, and possibly follicular lymphoma.

Abstract Introduction Courier delivery has become a popular antiretroviral therapy (ART) distribution method in some HIV care settings, yet data on ART courier delivery and how it relates to ART outcomes are scarce. We studied the differences in viral suppression rates between individuals from a South African private sector HIV programme receiving ART by courier delivery and those receiving ART through traditional retail dispensing. Methods Individuals aged 15 years or older who were actively enrolled in the Aid for AIDS programme between January 2011 and July 2022 were eligible for the analysis. The outcome of interest was viral suppression defined as a viral load (VL)

Introduction HIV drug resistance poses a challenge to the United Nation’s goal of ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic. The integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI) dolutegravir, which has a higher resistance barrier, was endorsed by the WHO in 2019 for first-line, second-line and third-line antiretroviral therapy (ART). This multiplicity of roles of dolutegravir in ART may facilitate the emergence of dolutegravir resistance.Methods and analysis Nested within the International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS (IeDEA), DTG RESIST is a multicentre study of adults and adolescents living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and South and Central America who experienced virological failure on dolutegravir-based ART. At the time of virological failure, whole blood will be collected and processed to prepare plasma or dried blood spots. Laboratories in Durban, Mexico City and Bangkok will perform genotyping. Analyses will focus on (1) individuals who experienced virological failure on dolutegravir and (2) those who started or switched to such a regimen and were at risk of virological failure. For population (1), the outcome will be any InSTI drug resistance mutations, and for population (2) virological failure is defined as a viral load >1000 copies/mL. Phenotypic testing will focus on non-B subtype viruses with major InSTI resistance mutations. Bayesian evolutionary models will explore and predict treatment failure genotypes. The study will have intermediate statistical power to detect differences in resistance mutation prevalence between major HIV-1 subtypes; ample power to identify risk factors for virological failure and limited power for analysing factors associated with individual InSTI drug resistance mutations.Ethics and dissemination The research protocol was approved by the Biomedical Research Ethics Committee at the University of KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa and the Ethics Committee of the Canton of Bern, Switzerland. All sites participate in International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS and have obtained ethics approval from their local ethics committee to collect additional data.Trial registration number NCT06285110.

Objectives: Elderly patients with hematologic malignancies face the highest risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. The infection's impact on different age groups remains unstudied in detail. Methods: We analyzed elderly patients (age groups: 65-70, 71-75, 76-80, and >80 years old) with hematologic malignancies included in the EPICOVIDEHA registry between January 2020 and July 2022. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression models were conducted to identify factors influencing death in COVID-19 patients with hematological malignancy. Results: The study included data from 3,603 elderly patients (aged 65 or older) with hematological malignancy, with a majority being male (58.1%) and a significant proportion having comorbidities. The patients were divided into four age groups, and the analysis assessed COVID-19 outcomes, vaccination status, and other variables in relation to age and pandemic waves. The 90-day survival rate for patients with COVID-19 was 71.2%, with significant differences between groups. The pandemic waves had varying impacts, with the first wave affecting patients over 80 years old, the second being more severe in 65-70, and the third being the least severe in all age groups. Factors contributing to 90-day mortality included age, comorbidities, lymphopenia, active malignancy, acute leukemia, less than three vaccine doses, severe COVID-19, and using only corticosteroids as treatment. Conclusion: These data underscore the heterogeneity of elderly hematological patients, highlight the different impacts of COVID-19 waves and the pivotal importance of vaccination, and may help in planning future healthcare efforts.

Aim To describe the pattern of the prevalence of mental health problems during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic and examine the impact of containment measures on these trends.Methods We identified articles published until 30 August 2021 that reported the prevalence of mental health problems in the general population at two or more time points. A crowd of 114 reviewers extracted data on prevalence, study and participant characteristics. We collected information on the number of days since the first SARS-CoV-2 infection in the study country, the stringency of containment measures and the number of cases and deaths. We synthesised changes in prevalence during the pandemic using a random-effects model. We used dose-response meta-analysis to evaluate the trajectory of the changes in mental health problems.Results We included 41 studies for 7 mental health conditions. The average odds of symptoms increased during the pandemic (mean OR ranging from 1.23 to 2.08). Heterogeneity was very large and could not be explained by differences in participants or study characteristics. Average odds of psychological distress, depression and anxiety increased during the first 2 months of the pandemic, with increased stringency of the measures, reported infections and deaths. The confidence in the evidence was low to very low.Conclusions We observed an initial increase in the average risk of psychological distress, depression-related and anxiety-related problems during the first 2 months of the pandemic. However, large heterogeneity suggests that different populations had different responses to the challenges imposed by the pandemic.

Summary: Background: The COVID-19 pandemic heightened risks for individuals with hematological malignancies due to compromised immune systems, leading to more severe outcomes and increased mortality. While interventions like vaccines, targeted antivirals, and monoclonal antibodies have been effective for the general population, their benefits for these patients may not be as pronounced. Methods: The EPICOVIDEHA registry (National Clinical Trials Identifier, NCT04733729) gathers COVID-19 data from hematological malignancy patients since the pandemic's start worldwide. It spans various global locations, allowing comprehensive analysis over the first three years (2020–2022). Findings: The EPICOVIDEHA registry collected data from January 2020 to December 2022, involving 8767 COVID-19 cases in hematological malignancy patients from 152 centers across 41 countries, with 42% being female. Over this period, there was a significant reduction in critical infections and an overall decrease in mortality from 29% to 4%. However, hospitalization, particularly in the ICU, remained associated with higher mortality rates. Factors contributing to increased mortality included age, multiple comorbidities, active malignancy at COVID-19 onset, pulmonary symptoms, and hospitalization. On the positive side, vaccination with one to two doses or three or more doses, as well as encountering COVID-19 in 2022, were associated with improved survival. Interpretation: Patients with hematological malignancies still face elevated risks, despite reductions in critical infections and overall mortality rates over time. Hospitalization, especially in ICUs, remains a significant concern. The study underscores the importance of vaccination and the timing of COVID-19 exposure in 2022 for enhanced survival in this patient group. Ongoing monitoring and targeted interventions are essential to support this vulnerable population, emphasizing the critical role of timely diagnosis and prompt treatment in preventing severe COVID-19 cases. Funding: Not applicable.

Background Trace amine-associated receptor 1 (TAAR1) agonism shows promise for treating psychosis, prompting us to synthesise data from human and non-human studies. Methods We co-produced a living systematic review of controlled studies examining TAAR1 agonists in individuals (with or without psychosis/schizophrenia) and relevant animal models. Two independent reviewers identified studies in multiple electronic databases (until 17.11.2023), extracted data, and assessed risk of bias. Primary outcomes were standardised mean differences (SMD) for overall symptoms in human studies and hyperlocomotion in animal models. We also examined adverse events and neurotransmitter signalling. We synthesised data with random-effects meta-analyses. Results Nine randomised trials provided data for two TAAR1 agonists (ulotaront and ralmitaront), and 15 animal studies for 10 TAAR1 agonists. Ulotaront and ralmitaront demonstrated few differences compared to placebo in improving overall symptoms in adults with acute schizophrenia (N=4 studies, n=1291 participants; SMD=0.15, 95%CI: -0.05, 0.34), and ralmitaront was less efficacious than risperidone (N=1, n=156, SMD=-0.53, 95%CI: -0.86, -0.20). Large placebo response was observed in ulotaront phase-III trials. Limited evidence suggested a relatively benign side-effect profile for TAAR1 agonists, although nausea and sedation were common after a single dose of ulotaront. In animal studies, TAAR1 agonists improved hyperlocomotion compared to control (N=13 studies, k=41 experiments, SMD=1.01, 95%CI: 0.74, 1.27), but seemed less efficacious compared to dopamine D2 receptor antagonists (N=4, k=7, SMD=-0.62, 95%CI: -1.32, 0.08). Limited human and animal data indicated that TAAR1 agonists may regulate presynaptic dopaminergic signalling. Conclusions TAAR1 agonists may be less efficacious than dopamine D2 receptor antagonists already licensed for schizophrenia. The results are preliminary due to the limited number of drugs examined, lack of longer-term data, publication bias, and assay sensitivity concerns in trials associated with large placebo response. Considering their unique mechanism of action, relatively benign side-effect profile and ongoing drug development, further research is warranted. Registration PROSPERO-ID:CRD42023451628.

This study presents an analytical-mathematical model that elucidates the mechanics/kinematics of an impact crusher's impact swing mechanism. Essentially, this model comprises a series of mathematical descriptions and equations that are leveraged from established mechanical principles, such as rigid body kinematics, multibody dynamics, and collision laws, thus enabling comprehensive analytical exploration of the complex mechanical-kinematical system underlying the impact swing's mechanism, particularly focusing on the system-critical activation of this mechanism when triggered by an impacting non-fragile particle. The developments presented in this paper, supportively illustrated through detailed diagrams, provide relevant insights into the operational behaviour of modern impact crushers. This research therefore not only advances the theoretical understanding of system-critical crusher kinematics but also holds significant implications for the design and optimisation of future equipment. The resulting model's ability to analytically and mathematically delineate the complex mechanical-kinematical system of an impact swing mechanism not only facilitates efficient analyses but also circumvents the extensive and resource-intensive demands typically associated with numerical simulations of such systems. Consequently, this approach thereby forms substantial added value, particularly in the realm of engineering analysis.

Abstract Plastics pollution research attracts scientists from diverse disciplines. Many Early Career Researchers (ECRs) are drawn to this field to investigate and subsequently mitigate the negative impacts of plastics. Solving the multi-faceted plastic problem will always require breakthroughs across all levels of science disciplinarity, which supports interdisciplinary discoveries and underpins transdisciplinary solutions. In this context, ECRs have the opportunity to work across scientific discipline boundaries and connect with different stakeholders, including industry, policymakers and the public. To fully realize their potential, ECRs need to develop strong communication and project management skills to be able to effectively interface with academic peers and non-academic stakeholders. At the end of their formal education, many ECRs will choose to leave academia and pursue a career in private industry, government, research institutes or non-governmental organizations (NGOs). Here we give perspectives on how ECRs can develop the skills to tackle the challenges and opportunities of this transdisciplinary research field and how these skills can be transferred to different working sectors. We also explore how advisors can support an ECRs’ growth through inclusive leadership and coaching. We further consider the roles each party may play in developing ECRs into mature scientists by helping them build a strong foundation, while also critically assessing problems in an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary context. We hope these concepts can be useful in fostering the development of the next generation of plastics pollution researchers so they can address this global challenge more effectively. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Scientific research over the past decade has demonstrated that plastic in our oceans has detrimental consequences for marine life at all trophic levels. As countries negotiate an international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution, the focus is on eliminating plastic emissions to the environment. Here, we argue that, while this endeavour is urgently needed to limit the negative impacts of plastic on ocean ecosystems, the reduction of the plastic flow to the environment should not be the sole purpose of the negotiations. Legacy oceanic plastic pollution is also a major concern that needs to be addressed in the coming Treaty. Plastic is ubiquitous and persistent in the environment, and its slow degradation produces uncountable amounts of potentially even more impactful micro- and nanoparticles. Thus, plastic that is already present in the oceans may continue to affect ecosystems for centuries. Recent global assessments reveal that microplastics could have a significant impact on biogeochemical cycles and microbial food chains within ocean ecosystems that may be equivalent to those of climate change. Therefore, we argue that cleanup initiatives are essential to avoid further longterm impacts of legacy oceanic pollution. The upcoming international negotiations to develop a new Global Plastics Treaty should aim at urgently reducing the flow of plastic to the marine environment while supporting innovative solutions towards efficient monitoring and cleanup of the legacy oceanic plastic pollution.

Abstract Introduction Dolutegravir (DTG) is widely used for antiretroviral therapy (ART). We compared weight and blood pressure trends and examined the association between high blood pressure and weight gain among people living with HIV (PLHIV) switching to or starting DTG‐based, efavirenz (EFV)‐based and ritonavir‐boosted atazanavir (ATV/r)‐based ART in Zimbabwe. Methods PLHIV aged 18 years or older who started or switched to DTG, EFV or ATV/r‐based ART between January 2004 and June 2022 at Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe, were eligible. Weight was measured at all visits (Seca floor scales); blood pressure only at clinician‐led visits (Omron M2 sphygmomanometer). We used Bayesian additive models to estimate trends in weight gain and the proportion with high blood pressure (systolic >140 mmHg or diastolic >90 mmHg) in the first 2 years after starting or switching the regimen. Finally, we examined whether trends in the proportion with high blood pressure were related to weight change. Results We analysed 99,969 weight and 35,449 blood pressure records from 9487 adults (DTG: 4593; EFV: 3599; ATV/r: 1295). At 24 months after starting or switching to DTG, estimated median weight gains were 4.54 kg (90% credibility interval 3.88−5.28 kg) in women and 3.71 kg (3.07−4.45 kg) in men, around twice that observed for ATV/r and over four‐times the gain observed for EFV. Prevalence of high blood pressure among PLHIV receiving DTG‐based ART increased from around 5% at baseline to over 20% at 24 months, with no change in PLHIV receiving EFV‐ or ATV/r‐based ART. High blood pressure in PLHIV switching to DTG was associated with weight gain, with stronger increases in the proportion with high blood pressure for larger weight gains. Conclusions Among PLHIV starting ART or switching to a new regimen, DTG‐based ART was associated with larger weight gains and a substantial increase in the prevalence of high blood pressure. Routine weight and blood pressure measurement and interventions to lower blood pressure could benefit PLHIV on DTG‐based ART. Further studies are needed to elucidate the mechanisms and reversibility of these changes after discontinuation of DTG.

ObjectiveThe objective of this study was to map place of cancer diagnosis in relation to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) care centre among people living with HIV (PLHIV) within South Africa (SA) using national laboratory database.DesignWe linked HIV and cancer laboratory data from 2004-2014 using supervised machine-learning algorithms. We performed a cross-sectional analysis comparing province where individuals accessed their HIV care versus where they had their cancer diagnosis.SettingWe used laboratory test records related to HIV diagnostics and care, such as CD4 cell counts and percentages, rapid tests, qualitative Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR), antibody and antigen tests for HIV data that was documented as HIV positive and laboratory diagnosed cancer records from SA.Study populationOur study population consisted of HIV records from the National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) that linked to cancer record at the National Cancer Registry (NCR) between 2004-2014.Primary and secondary outcomesWe linked HIV records from NHLS to cancer records at NCR in order to study the inherent characteristics of the population with both HIV and cancer.ResultsThe study population was 68,284 individuals with cancer and documented HIV related laboratory test. The median age at cancer diagnosis was 40 [IQR, 33-48] years for the study population with most cancers in PLHIV diagnosed in females 70.9% [n = 46,313]. Of all the PLHIV and cancer, 25% (n = 16,364 p < 0.001) sought treatment outside their province of residence with 60.7% (n = 10,235) travelling to Gauteng. KZN had 46.6% (n = 4,107) of its PLHIV getting cancer diagnosis in Gauteng. Western Cape had 95% (n = 6,200) of PLHIV getting cancer diagnosis within the province.ConclusionsOur results showed health systems inequalities across provinces in SA with respect to cancer diagnosis. KZN for example had nearly half of the PLHIV getting cancer diagnosis outside the province while Western Cape is able to offer cancer diagnostic services to most of the PLHIV in the province. Gauteng is getting over burdened with referral for cancer diagnosis from other provinces. More effort is required to ensure equitable access to cancer diagnostic services within the country.

There are few data from sub-Saharan Africa on the virological outcomes associated with second-line ART based on protease inhibitors or dolutegravir (DTG). We compared viral load (VL) suppression among people living with HIV (PLWH) on atazanavir (ATV/r)- or DTG-based second-line ART with PLWH on efavirenz (EFV)-based first-line ART. We analyzed data from the electronic medical records system of Newlands Clinic in Harare, Zimbabwe. We included individuals aged ≥12 years when commencing first-line EFV-based ART or switching to second-line DTG- or ATV/r-based ART with ≥24 weeks follow-up after start or switch. We computed suppression rates (HIV VL

BACKGROUND: Given their high-risk resident population, nursing homes were critical institutions in the COVID-19 pandemic, calling for continued monitoring and vaccine administration to healthcare workers and residents. Here, we studied long-term severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) immunity in vaccinated and unvaccinated healthcare workers and residents of a nursing home in Switzerland between February 2021 and June 2022. METHODS: Our study comprised 45 participants, of which 39 were healthcare workers and six were residents. All participants were offered a maximum of three mRNA vaccine doses (Pfizer/BioNTech, BNT162b2) in December 2020, January 2021, and November/December 2021. Thirty-five participants received three vaccinations, seven either one or two, and three remained unvaccinated. We collected four blood samples: one in March 2021 and three during follow-ups in November 2021, February 2022, and June 2022. We performed a multifactorial serological SARS-CoV-2 assay (ABCORA) for immunoglobulin G, A, and M responses to spike (receptor-binding domain, S1, and S2) and nucleocapsid (N) proteins. Furthermore, we assessed predicted neutralisation activity based on signal over cutoff in ABCORA. We collected epidemiological data from participants via a standardised questionnaire. RESULTS: Thirty-two (71%) of the 45 participants showed hybrid immunity from combined vaccination and previous infection; 10 (22%) had only vaccine-induced immunity; and three (7%) had only post-infection immunity. Participants with hybrid immunity showed the highest predicted neutralisation activity at the end of the study period (median Sum S1 = 273), and unvaccinated participants showed the lowest (median Sum S1 = 41). Amongst participants who reported a SARS-CoV-2 infection, median Sum S1 levels increased with the number of vaccinations (p = 0.077). The healthcare worker group showed a significant time-dependent decrease in median Sum S1 after base immunisation (93% decrease, p = 0.0005) and the booster dose (26% decrease, p = 0.010). Predicted neutralisation activity was lower amongst residents (adjusted ratio of means [AM] = 0.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.3–1.0) and amongst smokers (AM = 0.5, 95% CI 0.3–0.8). Activity increased with the number of vaccinations (booster: AM = 3.6, 95% CI 1.5–8.8; no booster: AM = 2.3, 95% CI 0.9–2.5). Positive SARS-CoV-2 infection status tended to confer higher predicted neutralisation levels (AM = 1.5, 95% CI 0.9–2.5). CONCLUSIONS: Our study of the long-term serological course of SARS-CoV-2 in a nursing home showed that the first SARS-CoV-2 booster vaccine was essential for maintaining antiviral antibody levels. Hybrid immunity sustained SARS-CoV-2 immunity at the highest level. In critical settings such as nursing homes, monitoring the SARS-CoV-2 immune status may guide booster vaccinations.

Background The International epidemiology Databases to Evaluate AIDS conducts research in several regions, including in Southern Africa. We assessed authorship inequalities for the Southern African region, which is led by South African and Swiss investigators.Methods We analysed authorships of publications from 2007 to 2020 by gender, country income group, time and citation impact. We used 2020 World Bank categories to define income groups and the relative citation ratio (RCR) to assess citation impact. Authorship parasitism was defined as articles without authors from the countries where the study was conducted. A regression model examined the probability of different authorship positions.Results We included 313 articles. Of the 1064 contributing authors, 547 (51.4%) were women, and 223 (21.0%) were from 32 low-income/lower middle-income countries (LLMICs), 269 (25.3%) were from 13 upper middle-income countries and 572 (53.8%) were from 25 high-income countries (HICs). Most articles (150/157, 95.5%) reporting data from Southern Africa included authors from all participating countries. Women were more likely to be the first author than men (OR 1.74; 95% CI 1.06 to 2.83) but less likely to be last authors (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40 to 0.99). Compared with HIC, LLMIC authors were less likely to publish as first (OR 0.21; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.41) or last author (OR 0.20; 95% CI 0.09 to 0.42). The proportion of women and LLMIC first and last authors increased over time. The RCR tended to be higher, indicating greater impact, if first or last authors were from HIC (p=0.06).Conclusions This analysis of a global health collaboration co-led by South African and Swiss investigators showed little evidence of authorship parasitism. There were stark inequalities in authorship position, with women occupying more first and men more last author positions and researchers from LLMIC being ‘stuck in the middle’ on the byline. Global health research collaborations should monitor, analyse and address authorship inequalities.

Summary: Disparities in social determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in causing health inequities globally. The physical environment, including housing and workplace environment, can increase the prevalence and spread of fungal infections. A number of professions are associated with increased fungal infection risk and are associated with low pay, which may be linked to crowded and sub-optimal living conditions, exposure to fungal organisms, lack of access to quality health care, and risk for fungal infection. Those involved and displaced from areas of armed conflict have an increased risk of invasive fungal infections. Lastly, a number of fungal plant pathogens already threaten food security, which will become more problematic with global climate change. Taken together, disparities in SDOH are associated with increased risk for contracting fungal infections. More emphasis needs to be placed on systematic approaches to better understand the impact and reducing the health inequities associated with these disparities.

In anxiety, depression and psychosis, there has been frustratingly slow progress in developing novel therapies that make a substantial difference in practice, as well as in predicting which treatments will work for whom and in what contexts. To intervene early in the process and deliver optimal care to patients, we need to understand the underlying mechanisms of mental health conditions, develop safe and effective interventions that target these mechanisms, and improve our capabilities in timely diagnosis and reliable prediction of symptom trajectories. Better synthesis of existing evidence is one way to reduce waste and improve efficiency in research towards these ends. Living systematic reviews produce rigorous, up-to-date and informative evidence summaries that are particularly important where research is emerging rapidly, current evidence is uncertain and new findings might change policy or practice. Global Alliance for Living Evidence on aNxiety, depressiOn and pSychosis (GALENOS) aims to tackle the challenges of mental health science research by cataloguing and evaluating the full spectrum of relevant scientific research including both human and preclinical studies. GALENOS will also allow the mental health community—including patients, carers, clinicians, researchers and funders—to better identify the research questions that most urgently need to be answered. By creating open-access datasets and outputs in a state-of-the-art online resource, GALENOS will help identify promising signals early in the research process. This will accelerate translation from discovery science into effective new interventions for anxiety, depression and psychosis, ready to be translated in clinical practice across the world.

Background Observational studies are increasingly used to inform health decision-making when randomised trials are not feasible, ethical or timely. The target trial approach provides a framework to help minimise common biases in observational studies that aim to estimate the causal effect of interventions. Incomplete reporting of studies using the target trial framework limits the ability for clinicians, researchers, patients and other decision-makers to appraise, synthesise and interpret findings to inform clinical and public health practice and policy. This paper describes the methods that we will use to develop the TrAnsparent ReportinG of observational studies Emulating a Target trial (TARGET) reporting guideline.Methods/design The TARGET reporting guideline will be developed in five stages following recommended guidance. The first stage will identify target trial reporting practices by systematically reviewing published studies that explicitly emulated a target trial. The second stage will identify and refine items to be considered for inclusion in the TARGET guideline by consulting content experts using sequential online surveys. The third stage will prioritise and consolidate key items to be included in the TARGET guideline at an in-person consensus meeting of TARGET investigators. The fourth stage will produce and pilot-test both the TARGET guideline and explanation and elaboration document with relevant stakeholders. The fifth stage will disseminate the TARGET guideline and resources via journals, conferences and courses.Ethics and dissemination Ethical approval for the survey has been attained (HC220536). The TARGET guideline will be disseminated widely in partnership with stakeholders to maximise adoption and improve reporting of these studies.

COVID-19-releated public health measures may have indirectly impacted mortality rates by causing or averting deaths. Here, the authors use data from Switzerland until April 2022 and estimate that, after accounting for deaths directly related to COVID-19, mortality was lower than expected, indicating some evidence of an overall positive impact of control measures.

Abstract The subtropical oceanic gyre in the North Pacific Ocean is currently covered with tens of thousands of tonnes of floating plastic debris, dispersed over millions of square kilometres. A large fraction is composed of fishing nets and ropes while the rest is mostly composed of hard plastic objects and fragments, sometimes carrying evidence on their origin. In 2019, an oceanographic mission conducted in the area, retrieved over 6000 hard plastic debris items > 5 cm. The debris was later sorted, counted, weighed, and analysed for evidence of origin and age. Our results, complemented with numerical model simulations and findings from a previous oceanographic mission, revealed that a majority of the floating material stems from fishing activities. While recent assessments for plastic inputs into the ocean point to coastal developing economies and rivers as major contributors into oceanic plastic pollution, here we show that most floating plastics in the North Pacific subtropical gyre can be traced back to five industrialised fishing nations, highlighting the important role the fishing industry plays in the solution to this global issue.

The Journal Impact Factor is often used as a proxy measure for journal quality, but the empirical evidence is scarce. In particular, it is unclear how peer review characteristics for a journal relate to its impact factor. We analysed 10,000 peer review reports submitted to 1,644 biomedical journals with impact factors ranging from 0.21 to 74.7. Two researchers hand-coded sentences using categories of content related to the thoroughness of the review (Materials and Methods, Presentation and Reporting, Results and Discussion, Importance and Relevance) and helpfulness (Suggestion and Solution, Examples, Praise, Criticism). We fine-tuned and validated transformer machine learning language models to classify sentences. We then examined the association between the number and percentage of sentences addressing different content categories and 10 groups defined by the Journal Impact Factor. The median length of reviews increased with higher impact factor, from 185 words (group 1) to 387 words (group 10). The percentage of sentences addressing Materials and Methods was greater in the highest Journal Impact Factor journals than in the lowest Journal Impact Factor group. The results for Presentation and Reporting went in the opposite direction, with the highest Journal Impact Factor journals giving less emphasis to such content. For helpfulness, reviews for higher impact factor journals devoted relatively less attention to Suggestion and Solution than lower impact factor journals. In conclusion, peer review in journals with higher impact factors tends to be more thorough, particularly in addressing study methods while giving relatively less emphasis to presentation or suggesting solutions. Differences were modest and variability high, indicating that the Journal Impact Factor is a bad predictor of the quality of peer review of an individual manuscript.

The North Pacific Garbage Patch, located in the eastern part of the North Pacific subtropical gyre, contains vast amounts of floating plastic debris. Research over the past decades has mainly focused on assessing the extent of plastic pollution in this oceanic region. However, the North Pacific subtropical gyre is also home to the surface-associated pelagic community known as neuston. To date, the dynamics of this ecosystem and its vulnerability towards environmental pollution and anthropogenic impacts remain poorly understood. While removing plastic debris afloat at sea can reduce negative impacts of plastic pollution on neuston and marine life in general, concerns have been raised that cleanup efforts could have an adverse effect on neuston due to potential co-accumulation of neuston and plastic at the sea surface. Here, we provide the most comprehensive assessment of neuston abundance in the eastern North Pacific Ocean and its relation to the distribution of floating plastic debris (0.05–5 cm in size) based on a first year-round survey. Our results reveal that neuston taxa inside the North Pacific Garbage Patch often show similar or lower abundances in areas with particularly high densities of floating plastic debris compared to the wider garbage patch. Targeting open-ocean cleanups on such plastic hotspot territories inside the garbage patch can therefore minimize interactions with neuston during cleanups, thus maximizing their net environmental gain. We further discover that neuston depicts substantial seasonal variability, which needs to be considered when assessing impacts on neuston.

Abstract At present, the distribution of plastic debris in the ocean water column remains largely unknown. Such information, however, is required to assess the exposure of marine organisms to plastic pollution as well as to calculate the ocean plastic mass balance. Here, we provide water column profiles (0–300 m water depth) of plastic (0.05–5 cm in size) concentration and key planktonic species from the eastern North Atlantic Ocean. The amount of plastic decreases rapidly in the upper few meters, from ~ 1 item/m3 (~ 1000 µg/m3) at the sea surface to values of ~ 0.001–0.01 items/m3 (~ 0.1–10 µg/m3) at 300 m depth. Ratios of plastic to plankton varied between ~ 10–5 and 1 plastic particles per individual with highest ratios typically found in the surface waters. We further observed that pelagic ratios were generally higher in the water column below the subtropical gyre compared to those in more coastal ecosystems. Lastly, we show plastic to (non-gelatinous) plankton ratios could be as high as ~ 102–107 plastic particles per individual when considering reported concentrations of small microplastics

Funding agencies rely on peer review and expert panels to select the research deserving funding. Peer review has limitations, including bias against risky proposals or interdisciplinary research. The inter-rater reliability between reviewers and panels is low, particularly for proposals near the funding line. Funding agencies are also increasingly acknowledging the role of chance. The Swiss National Science Foundation (SNSF) introduced a lottery for proposals in the middle group of good but not excellent proposals. In this article, we introduce a Bayesian hierarchical model for the evaluation process. To rank the proposals, we estimate their expected ranks (ER), which incorporates both the magnitude and uncertainty of the estimated differences between proposals. A provisional funding line is defined based on ER and budget. The ER and its credible interval are used to identify proposals with similar quality and credible intervals that overlap with the provisional funding line. These proposals are entered into a lottery. We illustrate the approach for two SNSF grant schemes in career and project funding. We argue that the method could reduce bias in the evaluation process. R code, data and other materials for this article are available online.

Much medical research is observational. The reporting of observational studies is often of insufficient quality. Poor reporting hampers the assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of a study and the generalisability of its results. Taking into account empirical evidence and theoretical considerations, a group of methodologists, researchers, and editors developed the Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (STROBE) recommendations to improve the quality of reporting of observational studies. The STROBE Statement consists of a checklist of 22 items, which relate to the title, abstract, introduction, methods, results and discussion sections of articles. Eighteen items are common to cohort studies, case-control studies and cross-sectional studies and four are specific to each of the three study designs. The STROBE Statement provides guidance to authors about how to improve the reporting of observational studies and facilitates critical appraisal and interpretation of studies by reviewers, journal editors and readers. This explanatory and elaboration document is intended to enhance the use, understanding, and dissemination of the STROBE Statement. The meaning and rationale for each checklist item are presented. For each item, one or several published examples and, where possible, references to relevant empirical studies and methodological literature are provided. Examples of useful flow diagrams are also included. The STROBE Statement, this document, and the associated Web site (http://www. strobe-statement.org/) should be helpful resources to improve reporting of observational research. Present article is Russian-language translation of the original manuscript edited by Doctor of Medicine R.T. Saygitov.Present translation was first published in Digital Diagnostics. doi: 10.17816/DD70821. It is published with minor changes related to the literary editing of the translation itself.

BackgroundGrowing evidence suggests an important contribution of airborne transmission to the overall spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), in particular via smaller particles called aerosols. However, the contribution of school children to SARS-CoV-2 transmission remains uncertain. The aim of this study was to assess transmission of airborne respiratory infections and the association with infection control measures in schools using a multiple-measurement approach.Methods and findingsWe collected epidemiological (cases of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)), environmental (CO2, aerosol and particle concentrations), and molecular data (bioaerosol and saliva samples) over 7 weeks from January to March 2022 (Omicron wave) in 2 secondary schools (n = 90, average 18 students/classroom) in Switzerland. We analyzed changes in environmental and molecular characteristics between different study conditions (no intervention, mask wearing, air cleaners). Analyses of environmental changes were adjusted for different ventilation, the number of students in class, school and weekday effects. We modeled disease transmission using a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model, adjusting for absent students and community transmission. Molecular analysis of saliva (21/262 positive) and airborne samples (10/130) detected SARS-CoV-2 throughout the study (weekly average viral concentration 0.6 copies/L) and occasionally other respiratory viruses. Overall daily average CO2 levels were 1,064 ± 232 ppm (± standard deviation). Daily average aerosol number concentrations without interventions were 177 ± 109 1/cm3 and decreased by 69% (95% CrI 42% to 86%) with mask mandates and 39% (95% CrI 4% to 69%) with air cleaners. Compared to no intervention, the transmission risk was lower with mask mandates (adjusted odds ratio 0.19, 95% CrI 0.09 to 0.38) and comparable with air cleaners (1.00, 95% CrI 0.15 to 6.51). Study limitations include possible confounding by period as the number of susceptible students declined over time. Furthermore, airborne detection of pathogens document exposure but not necessarily transmission.ConclusionsMolecular detection of airborne and human SARS-CoV-2 indicated sustained transmission in schools. Mask mandates were associated with greater reductions in aerosol concentrations than air cleaners and with lower transmission. Our multiple-measurement approach could be used to continuously monitor transmission risk of respiratory infections and the effectiveness of infection control measures in schools and other congregate settings.

In settings with high tuberculosis (TB) endemicity, distinct genotypes of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) often differ in prevalence. However, the factors leading to these differences remain poorly understood. Here we studied the MTBC population in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania over a six-year period, using 1,082 unique patient-derived MTBC whole-genome sequences (WGS) and associated clinical data. We show that the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam is dominated by multiple MTBC genotypes introduced to Tanzania from different parts of the world during the last 300 years. The most common MTBC genotypes deriving from these introductions exhibited differences in transmission rates and in the duration of the infectious period, but little differences in overall fitness, as measured by the effective reproductive number. Moreover, measures of disease severity and bacterial load indicated no differences in virulence between these genotypes during active TB. Instead, the combination of an early introduction and a high transmission rate accounted for the high prevalence of L3.1.1, the most dominant MTBC genotype in this setting. Yet, a longer co-existence with the host population did not always result in a higher transmission rate, suggesting that distinct life-history traits have evolved in the different MTBC genotypes. Taken together, our results point to bacterial factors as important determinants of the TB epidemic in Dar es Salaam.

Abstract Background Increasing age, male sex, and pre-existing comorbidities are associated with lower survival from SARS-CoV-2 infection. The interplay between different comorbidities, age, and sex is not fully understood, and it remains unclear if survival decreases linearly with higher ICU occupancy or if there is a threshold beyond which survival falls. Method This national population-based study included 22,648 people who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection and were hospitalized in Switzerland between February 24, 2020, and March 01, 2021. Bayesian survival models were used to estimate survival after positive SARS-CoV-2 test among people hospitalized with COVID-19 by epidemic wave, age, sex, comorbidities, and ICU occupancy. Two-way interactions between age, sex, and comorbidities were included to assess the differential risk of death across strata. ICU occupancy was modeled using restricted cubic splines to allow for a non-linear association with survival. Results Of 22,648 people hospitalized with COVID-19, 4785 (21.1%) died. The survival was lower during the first epidemic wave than in the second (predicted survival at 40 days after positive test 76.1 versus 80.5%). During the second epidemic wave, occupancy among all available ICU beds in Switzerland varied between 51.7 and 78.8%. The estimated survival was stable at approximately 81.5% when ICU occupancy was below 70%, but worse when ICU occupancy exceeded this threshold (survival at 80% ICU occupancy: 78.2%; 95% credible interval [CrI] 76.1 to 80.1%). Periods with higher ICU occupancy (>70 vs 70%) were associated with an estimated number of 137 (95% CrI 27 to 242) excess deaths. Comorbid conditions reduced survival more in younger people than in older people. Among comorbid conditions, hypertension and obesity were not associated with poorer survival. Hypertension appeared to decrease survival in combination with cardiovascular disease. Conclusions Survival after hospitalization with COVID-19 has improved over time, consistent with improved management of severe COVID-19. The decreased survival above 70% national ICU occupancy supports the need to introduce measures for prevention and control of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the population well before ICUs are full.

This research focuses on the manufacturing process and mechanical properties of textile reinforcements fabricated using embroidery technology. The study investigates both 2D and 3D reinforcement products and compares the advantages and possibilities of embroidery technology with other manufacturing methods. A series of tests using carbon reinforcement is conducted, and the results are presented and evaluated comprehensively. The uniaxial tensile tests reveal the characteristic behavior of carbon-reinforced concrete (CRC). Furthermore, the bonding behavior between the concrete matrix and embroidered carbon reinforcement is analyzed utilizing asymmetric pull-out tests, demonstrating that the embroidered reinforcements provide a sufficient bond. In addition to conventional 2D reinforcements, 3D reinforcements were also investigated, which can be efficiently manufactured using the TFP (tailored fiber placement) technology. Through the implementation of stirrup rovings, shear failure loads can be increased significantly. The results suggest that the mechanical properties of the reinforcement are influenced by the manufacturing process, which is particularly evident in the variation between longitudinal and transverse directions. The research highlights the potential benefits of using embroidery technology for textile reinforcement and indicates areas for further research and optimization in the manufacturing process. A pilot project that utilizes the embroidered reinforcement is currently under construction.

In this study, the authors estimate excess mortality at the regional level for five European countries (England, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Switzerland) in 2020. They identify the regions and time periods with highest excess mortality and show how these patterns evolved through different pandemic waves.

BACKGROUND: The widely used Swiss neighbourhood index of socioeconomic position (Swiss-SEP 1) was based on data from the 2000 national census on rent, household head education and occupation, and crowding. It may now be out of date. METHODS: We created a new index (Swiss-SEP 2) based on the 2012–2015 yearly micro censuses that have replaced the decennial house-to-house census in Switzerland since 2010. We used principal component analysis on neighbourhood-aggregated variables and standardised the index. We also created a hybrid version (Swiss-SEP 3), with updated values for neighbourhoods centred on buildings constructed after the year 2000 and original values for the remaining neighbourhoods. RESULTS: A total of 1.54 million neighbourhoods were included. With all three indices, the mean yearly equivalised household income increased from around 52,000 to 90,000 CHF from the lowest to the highest index decile. Analyses of mortality were based on 33.6 million person-years of follow-up. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios of all-cause mortality comparing areas in the lowest Swiss-SEP decile with areas of the highest decile were 1.39 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.36–1.41), 1.31 (1.29–1.33) and 1.34 (1.32–1.37) using the old, new and hybrid indices, respectively. DISCUSSION: The Swiss-SEP indices capture area-based SEP at a high resolution and allow the study of SEP when individual-level SEP data are missing or area-level effects are of interest. The hybrid version (Swiss-SEP 3) maintains high spatial resolution while adding information on new neighbourhoods. The index will continue to be useful for Switzerland’s epidemiological and public health research.

Racial and ethnic identities, largely understood as social rather than biologic constructs, may impact risk for acquiring infectious diseases, including fungal infections. Risk factors may include genetic and immunologic differences such as aberrations in host immune response, host polymorphisms, and epigenomic factors stemming from environmental exposures and underlying social determinants of health. In addition, certain racial and ethnic groups may be predisposed to diseases that increase risk for fungal infections, as well as disparities in healthcare access and health insurance. In this review, we analyzed racial and ethnic identities as risk factors for acquiring fungal infections, as well as race and ethnicity as they relate to risk for severe disease from fungal infections. Risk factors for invasive mold infections such as aspergillosis largely appear related to environmental differences and underlying social determinants of health, although immunologic aberrations and genetic polymorphisms may contribute in some circumstances. Although black and African American individuals appear to be at high risk for superficial and invasive Candida infections and cryptococcosis, the reasons for this are unclear and may be related to underling social determinants of health, disparities in access to healthcare, and other socioeconomic disparities. Risk factors for all the endemic fungi are likely largely related to underlying social determinants of health, socioeconomic, and health disparities, although immunologic mechanisms likely play a role as well, particularly in disseminated coccidioidomycosis.

Abstract Introduction Chronic viral replication has been linked to an increased risk of cardiovascular and metabolic diseases in people living with HIV (PLWH), but few studies have evaluated this association in Southern Africa. We explored the determinants of metabolic syndrome (MetS) among treatment‐naïve adults living with and without HIV in Southern Africa. Methods Treatment‐naïve PLWH and people living without HIV (PLWOH) ≥30 years were consecutively enrolled from primary care clinics in Zambia and Zimbabwe. PLWOH were seronegative partners or persons presenting for HIV testing. We defined MetS as the presence of central obesity plus any two of the following: raised blood pressure, impaired fasting glucose, reduced high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol and raised triglycerides, as defined by the International Diabetes Federation. We used logistic regression to determine factors associated with MetS. Results Between August 2019 and March 2022, we screened 1285 adults and enrolled 420 (47%) PLWH and 481 (53%) PLWOH. The median age was similar between PLWH and PLWOH (40 vs. 38 years, p < 0.24). In PLWH, the median CD4+ count was 228 cells/mm3 (IQR 108–412) and the viral load was 24,114 copies/ml (IQR 277–214,271). Central obesity was present in 365/523 (70%) females and 57/378 males (15%). MetS was diagnosed in 172/901 (19%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 17–22%), and prevalence was higher among females than males (27% vs. 9%). In multivariable analyses, HIV status was not associated with MetS (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.74–1.51). Risk factors for MetS included age older than 50 years (aOR 2.31, 95% CI 1.49–3.59), female sex (aOR 3.47, 95% CI 2.15–5.60), highest income (aOR 2.19, 95% CI 1.39–3.44) and less than World Health Organization recommended weekly physical activity (aOR 3.35, 95% CI 1.41–7.96). Conclusions We report a high prevalence of MetS and central obesity among females in urban Zambia and Zimbabwe. Lifestyle factors and older age appear to be the strongest predictors of MetS in our population, with no evident difference in MetS prevalence between treatment‐naïve PLWH and PLWOH.

Abstract Introduction Randomized trials and observational studies have consistently reported rates of sustained virological response (SVR), equivalent to hepatitis C virus (HCV) cure, as high as 95% following treatment with direct‐acting antiviral (DAA) treatment in individuals with HIV and HCV co‐infection. However, large studies assessing whether SVR rates differ according to demographic and clinical strata are lacking. Additionally, the SVR rates reported in the literature were typically computed in non‐random samples of individuals with available post‐DAA HCV‐RNA measures. Here, we aimed to estimate the probability of SVR after DAA treatment initiation in persons with HIV and HCV co‐infection overall and by demographic and clinical characteristics with and without adjustment for missing HCV‐RNA testing. Methods We included adults with HIV‐HCV co‐infection who received DAA treatment between 2014 and 2020 in HepCAUSAL, an international collaboration of cohorts from Europe and North America. We estimated the proportions of DAA recipients who had documented SVR (defined as an undetectable HCV‐RNA at least 12 weeks after the end of DAA treatment) overall and by strata defined by age, sex, presence of cirrhosis, calendar period, mode of HIV acquisition, CD4 cell count and HCV genotype at DAA treatment. We then compared these rates with those obtained using the parametric g‐formula to impute SVR status for individuals with no SVR assessment. Results and Discussion A total of 4527 individuals who initiated DAA treatment (88% males, median [IQR] age 56 [50, 62] years) were included. Of the total of 642 (14%) individuals had no HCV‐RNA test on or after 12 weeks after the end of treatment. The overall observed and g‐formula imputed SVR rates were 93% (95% CI 93, 94) and 94% (95% CI 92, 95), respectively. SVR estimates were similarly high across all strata. A substantial proportion of individuals who received DAA treatment were never assessed for SVR post‐DAA and strategies for more systematic routine HCV‐RNA testing should be considered. Conclusions Our estimates with and without adjustment for missing HCV‐RNA testing indicate SVR rates of approximately 95%, like those reported in clinical trials.

Abstract Background Selective outcome reporting and publication bias threaten the validity of systematic reviews and meta-analyses and can affect clinical decision-making. A rigorous method to evaluate the impact of this bias on the results of network meta-analyses of interventions is lacking. We present a tool to assess the Risk Of Bias due to Missing Evidence in Network meta-analysis (ROB-MEN). Methods ROB-MEN first evaluates the risk of bias due to missing evidence for each of the possible pairwise comparison that can be made between the interventions in the network. This step considers possible bias due to the presence of studies with unavailable results (within-study assessment of bias) and the potential for unpublished studies (across-study assessment of bias). The second step combines the judgements about the risk of bias due to missing evidence in pairwise comparisons with (i) the contribution of direct comparisons to the network meta-analysis estimates, (ii) possible small-study effects evaluated by network meta-regression, and (iii) any bias from unobserved comparisons. Then, a level of “low risk”, “some concerns”, or “high risk” for the bias due to missing evidence is assigned to each estimate, which is our tool’s final output. Results We describe the methodology of ROB-MEN step-by-step using an illustrative example from a published NMA of non-diagnostic modalities for the detection of coronary artery disease in patients with low risk acute coronary syndrome. We also report a full application of the tool on a larger and more complex published network of 18 drugs from head-to-head studies for the acute treatment of adults with major depressive disorder. Conclusions ROB-MEN is the first tool for evaluating the risk of bias due to missing evidence in network meta-analysis and applies to networks of all sizes and geometry. The use of ROB-MEN is facilitated by an R Shiny web application that produces the Pairwise Comparisons and ROB-MEN Table and is incorporated in the reporting bias domain of the CINeMA framework and software.

Abstract Introduction The rise of HIV-1 drug resistance to non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTI) threatens antiretroviral therapy's long-term success (ART). NNRTIs will remain an essential drug for the management of HIV-1 due to safety concerns associated with integrase inhibitors. We fitted a dynamic transmission model to historical data from 2000 to 2018 in nine countries of southern Africa to understand the mechanisms that have shaped the HIV-1 epidemic and the rise of pretreatment NNRTI resistance. Methods We included data on HIV-1 prevalence, ART coverage, HIV-related mortality, and survey data on pretreatment NNRTI resistance from nine southern Africa countries from a systematic review, UNAIDS and World Bank. Using a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we developed a dynamic transmission model linking data on the HIV-1 epidemic to survey data on NNRTI drug resistance in each country. We estimated the proportion of resistance attributable to unregulated, off-programme use of ART. We examined each national ART programme's vulnerability to NNRTI resistance by defining a fragility index: the ratio of the rate of NNRTI resistance emergence during first-line ART over the rate of switching to second-line ART. We explored associations between fragility and characteristics of the health system of each country. Results The model reliably described the dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic and NNRTI resistance in each country. Predicted levels of resistance in 2018 ranged between 3.3% (95% credible interval 1.9–7.1) in Mozambique and 25.3% (17.9–33.8) in Eswatini. The proportion of pretreatment NNRTI resistance attributable to unregulated antiretroviral use ranged from 6% (2–14) in Eswatini to 64% (26–85) in Mozambique. The fragility index was low in Botswana (0.01; 0.0–0.11) but high in Namibia (0.48; 0.16–10.17), Eswatini (0.64; 0.23–11.8) and South Africa (1.21; 0.83–9.84). The combination of high fragility of ART programmes and high ART coverage levels was associated with a sharp increase in pretreatment NNRTI resistance. Conclusions This comparison of nine countries shows that pretreatment NNRTI resistance can be controlled despite high ART coverage levels. This was the case in Botswana, Mozambique, and Zambia, most likely because of better HIV care delivery, including rapid switching to second-line ART of patients failing first-line ART.

Abstract Background Prognosis for the occurrence of relapses in individuals with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), the most common subtype of multiple sclerosis (MS), could support individualized decisions and disease management and could be helpful for efficiently selecting patients for future randomized clinical trials. There are only three previously published prognostic models on this, all of them with important methodological shortcomings. Objectives We aim to present the development, internal validation, and evaluation of the potential clinical benefit of a prognostic model for relapses for individuals with RRMS using real-world data. Methods We followed seven steps to develop and validate the prognostic model: (1) selection of prognostic factors via a review of the literature, (2) development of a generalized linear mixed-effects model in a Bayesian framework, (3) examination of sample size efficiency, (4) shrinkage of the coefficients, (5) dealing with missing data using multiple imputations, (6) internal validation of the model. Finally, we evaluated the potential clinical benefit of the developed prognostic model using decision curve analysis. For the development and the validation of our prognostic model, we followed the TRIPOD statement. Results We selected eight baseline prognostic factors: age, sex, prior MS treatment, months since last relapse, disease duration, number of prior relapses, expanded disability status scale (EDSS) score, and number of gadolinium-enhanced lesions. We also developed a web application that calculates an individual’s probability of relapsing within the next 2 years. The optimism-corrected c-statistic is 0.65 and the optimism-corrected calibration slope is 0.92. For threshold probabilities between 15 and 30%, the “treat based on the prognostic model” strategy leads to the highest net benefit and hence is considered the most clinically useful strategy. Conclusions The prognostic model we developed offers several advantages in comparison to previously published prognostic models on RRMS. Importantly, we assessed the potential clinical benefit to better quantify the clinical impact of the model. Our web application, once externally validated in the future, could be used by patients and doctors to calculate the individualized probability of relapsing within 2 years and to inform the management of their disease.

Abstract Background People living with HIV (PLWH) are at increased risk of developing cancer. Cancer diagnoses are often incompletely captured at antiretroviral therapy (ART) clinics. Aim To estimate the incidence and explore risk factors of cancer in a cohort of PLWH in Harare using probabilistic record linkage (PRL). Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study that included PLWH aged ≥16 years starting ART between 2004 and 2017. We used PRL to match records from the Zimbabwe National Cancer Registry (ZNCR) with electronic medical records from an ART clinic in Harare to investigate the incidence of cancer among PLWH initiating ART. We matched records based on demographic data followed by manual clerical review. We followed PLWH up until first cancer diagnosis, death, loss to follow‐up, or 31 December 2017, whichever came first. Results We included 3442 PLWH (64.9% female) with 19 346 person‐years (PY) of follow‐up. Median CD4 count at ART initiation was 169 cells/mm3 (interquartile range [IQR]: 82–275), median age was 36.6 years (IQR: 30.6–43.4). There were 66 incident cancer cases for an overall incidence rate of 341/100 000 PY (95% confidence interval [CI]: 268–434). Twenty‐two of these cases were recorded in the ZNCR only. The most common cancers were cervical cancer (n = 16; 123/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 75–201), Kaposi sarcoma, and lymphoma (both n = 12; 62/100 000 PY; 95% CI: 35–109). Cancer incidence increased with age and decreased with higher CD4 cell counts at ART initiation. Conclusion PRL was key to correct for cancer under‐ascertainment in this cohort. The most common cancers were infection‐related types, reinforcing the role of early HIV treatment, human papillomavirus vaccination, and cervical cancer screening for cancer prevention in this setting.

Objective: To compare cancer treatment and all-cause mortality between HIV-positive and HIV-negative cervical cancer patients in South Africa. Methods: We assessed cancer treatment and all-cause mortality in HIV-positive and HIV-negative cervical cancer patients who received cancer treatment within 180 days of diagnosis using reimbursement claims data from a private medical insurance scheme in South Africa between 01/2011 and 07/2020. We assessed treatment provision using logistic regression and factors associated with all-cause mortality using Cox regression. We assigned missing values for histology and ethnicity using multiple imputation. Results: Of 483 included women, 136 (28 %) were HIV-positive at cancer diagnosis (median age: 45.7 years), and 347 (72 %) were HIV-negative (median age: 54.1 years). Among 285 patients with available ICD-O-3 morphology claims codes, the proportion with cervical adenocarcinoma was substantially lower in HIV-positive (4 %) than in HIV-negative patients (26 %). Most HIV-positive patients (67 %) were on antiretroviral therapy at cancer diagnosis. HIV-positive patients were more likely to receive radiotherapy (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 1.90, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.05–3.45) or chemotherapy (aOR 2.02, 95 %CI 0.92–4.43) and less likely to undergo surgery (aOR 0.53, 95 %CI 0.31–0.90) than HIV-negative patients. HIV-positive patients were at a higher risk of death from all causes than HIV-negative patients (adjusted hazard ratio 1.52, 95 %CI 1.06–2.19). Other factors associated with higher all-cause mortality included age > 60 years and metastases at diagnosis. Conclusions: HIV-positive cervical cancer patients in South Africa had higher all-cause mortality than HIV-negative patients which could be explained by differences in tumour progression, clinical care, and HIV-specific mortality.

Objectives This article aims to measure the willingness of the Swiss public to participate in personalised health research, and their preferences regarding data management and governance.Setting Results are presented from a nationwide survey of members of the Swiss public.Participants 15 106 randomly selected Swiss residents received the survey in September 2019. The response rate was 34.1% (n=5156). Respondent age ranged from 18 to 79 years, with fairly uniform spread across sex and age categories between 25 and 64 years.Primary and secondary outcome measures Willingness to participate in personalised health research and opinions regarding data management and governance.Results Most respondents preferred to be contacted and reconsented for each new project using their data (39%, 95% CI: 37.4% to 40.7%), or stated that their preference depends on the project type (29.4%, 95% CI: 27.9% to 31%). Additionally, a majority (52%, 95% CI: 50.3% to 53.8%) preferred their data or samples be stored anonymously or in coded form (43.4%, 95% CI: 41.7% to 45.1%). Of those who preferred that their data be anonymised, most also indicated a wish to be recontacted for each new project (36.8%, 95% CI: 34.5% to 39.2%); however, these preferences are in conflict. Most respondents desired to personally own their data. Finally, most Swiss respondents trust their doctors, along with researchers at universities, to protect their data.Conclusion Insight into public preference can enable Swiss biobanks and research institutions to create management and governance strategies that match the expectations and preferences of potential participants. Models allowing participants to choose how to interact with the process, while more complex, may increase individual willingness to provide data to biobanks.

Introduction The growing importance of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and high HIV prevalence in urban African settings may increase the burden of metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD). We assessed liver steatosis among HIV-positive and negative adults in urban Zambia.Methods Adults 30 years and older who were newly diagnosed with HIV, or tested HIV-negative at two primary care clinics in Lusaka, Zambia, were assessed for liver steatosis. Cardiometabolic data were collected through comprehensive clinical and laboratory assessments. Transient elastography was performed to measure controlled-attenuation parameter (≥248 dB/m). We used multivariable logistic regression models to determine the factors associated with the presence of steatosis.Results We enrolled 381 patients, including 154 (40%) antiretroviral therapy-naïve people living with HIV (PLWH) with a median CD4+ count of 247 cells/mm3 and a mean body mass index (BMI) of 23.8 kg/m2. Liver steatosis was observed in 10% of participants overall and was more common among HIV-negative adults than in PLWH (15% vs 3%). The proportion of patients with steatosis was 25% among obese (BMI ≥30 kg/m2) participants, 12% among those overweight (BMI 25–29.9 kg/m2), and 7% among those with a BMI 25 kg/m2 and liver steatosis was attenuated after adjustment for potential confounders (aOR 1.96, 95% CI 0.88–4.40). Overall, 21 (9%) participants without HIV and 4 (3%) with HIV met the criteria for MAFLD. Among individuals with liver steatosis, 65% (95% CI 49% to 80%) fulfilled criteria of MAFLD, whereas 15 (39%) of them had elevated transaminases and 3 (8%) F2–F4 fibrosis.Conclusions The prevalence of liver steatosis in this urban cohort of HIV-positive and negative adults in Zambia was low, despite a large proportion of patients with high BMI and central obesity. Our study is among the first to report data on MAFLD among adults in Africa, demonstrating that metabolic risk factors are key drivers of liver steatosis and supporting the adoption of the criteria for MAFLD in African populations.

Summary: Background: Molecular diagnostics are considered the most promising route to achievement of rapid, universal drug susceptibility testing for Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). We aimed to generate a WHO-endorsed catalogue of mutations to serve as a global standard for interpreting molecular information for drug resistance prediction. Methods: In this systematic analysis, we used a candidate gene approach to identify mutations associated with resistance or consistent with susceptibility for 13 WHO-endorsed antituberculosis drugs. We collected existing worldwide MTBC whole-genome sequencing data and phenotypic data from academic groups and consortia, reference laboratories, public health organisations, and published literature. We categorised phenotypes as follows: methods and critical concentrations currently endorsed by WHO (category 1); critical concentrations previously endorsed by WHO for those methods (category 2); methods or critical concentrations not currently endorsed by WHO (category 3). For each mutation, we used a contingency table of binary phenotypes and presence or absence of the mutation to compute positive predictive value, and we used Fisher's exact tests to generate odds ratios and Benjamini-Hochberg corrected p values. Mutations were graded as associated with resistance if present in at least five isolates, if the odds ratio was more than 1 with a statistically significant corrected p value, and if the lower bound of the 95% CI on the positive predictive value for phenotypic resistance was greater than 25%. A series of expert rules were applied for final confidence grading of each mutation. Findings: We analysed 41 137 MTBC isolates with phenotypic and whole-genome sequencing data from 45 countries. 38 215 MTBC isolates passed quality control steps and were included in the final analysis. 15 667 associations were computed for 13 211 unique mutations linked to one or more drugs. 1149 (7·3%) of 15 667 mutations were classified as associated with phenotypic resistance and 107 (0·7%) were deemed consistent with susceptibility. For rifampicin, isoniazid, ethambutol, fluoroquinolones, and streptomycin, the mutations' pooled sensitivity was more than 80%. Specificity was over 95% for all drugs except ethionamide (91·4%), moxifloxacin (91·6%) and ethambutol (93·3%). Only two resistance mutations were identified for bedaquiline, delamanid, clofazimine, and linezolid as prevalence of phenotypic resistance was low for these drugs. Interpretation: We present the first WHO-endorsed catalogue of molecular targets for MTBC drug susceptibility testing, which is intended to provide a global standard for resistance interpretation. The existence of this catalogue should encourage the implementation of molecular diagnostics by national tuberculosis programmes. Funding: Unitaid, Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, and Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.