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BackgroundModeling suggests that climate change mitigation actions can have substantial human health benefits that accrue quickly and locally. Documenting the benefits can help drive more ambitious and health-protective climate change mitigation actions; however, documenting the adverse health effects can help to avoid them. Estimating the health effects of mitigation (HEM) actions can help policy makers prioritize investments based not only on mitigation potential but also on expected health benefits. To date, however, the wide range of incompatible approaches taken to developing and reporting HEM estimates has limited their comparability and usefulness to policymakers.ObjectiveThe objective of this effort was to generate guidance for modeling studies on scoping, estimating, and reporting population health effects from climate change mitigation actions.MethodsAn expert panel of HEM researchers was recruited to participate in developing guidance for conducting HEM studies. The primary literature and a synthesis of HEM studies were provided to the panel. Panel members then participated in a modified Delphi exercise to identify areas of consensus regarding HEM estimation. Finally, the panel met to review and discuss consensus findings, resolve remaining differences, and generate guidance regarding conducting HEM studies.ResultsThe panel generated a checklist of recommendations regarding stakeholder engagement: HEM modeling, including model structure, scope and scale, demographics, time horizons, counterfactuals, health response functions, and metrics; parameterization and reporting; approaches to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; accounting for policy uptake; and discounting.DiscussionThis checklist provides guidance for conducting and reporting HEM estimates to make them more comparable and useful for policymakers. Harmonization of HEM estimates has the potential to lead to advances in and improved synthesis of policy-relevant research that can inform evidence-based decision making and practice. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP6745.

Recent measurements of methane emissions from abandoned oil/gas wells show that these wells can be a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere, particularly from a small proportion of high-emitting wells. However, identifying high emitters remains a challenge. We couple 163 well measurements of methane flow rates; ethane, propane, and n-butane concentrations; isotopes of methane; and noble gas concentrations from 88 wells in Pennsylvania with synthesized data from historical documents, field investigations, and state databases. Using our databases, we (i) improve estimates of the number of abandoned wells in Pennsylvania; (ii) characterize key attributes that accompany high emitters, including depth, type, plugging status, and coal area designation; and (iii) estimate attribute-specific and overall methane emissions from abandoned wells. High emitters are best predicted as unplugged gas wells and plugged/vented gas wells in coal areas and appear to be unrelated to the presence of underground natural gas storage areas or unconventional oil/gas production. Repeat measurements over 2 years show that flow rates of high emitters are sustained through time. Our attribute-based methane emission data and our comprehensive estimate of 470,000-750,000 abandoned wells in Pennsylvania result in estimated state-wide emissions of 0.04-0.07 Mt (1012 g) CH4 per year. This estimate represents 5-8% of annual anthropogenic methane emissions in Pennsylvania. Our methodology combining new field measurements with data mining of previously unavailable well attributes and numbers of wells can be used to improve methane emission estimates and prioritize cost-effective mitigation strategies for Pennsylvania and beyond.

We develop a source-specific high-resolution emission inventory for the Shandong region of eastern China for 2000 and 2020. Our emission estimates for year 2000 are higher than other studies for most pollutants, due to our inclusion of rural coal consumption, which is significant but often underestimated. Still, our inventory evaluation suggests that we likely underestimate actual emissions. We project that emissions will increase greatly from 2000 to 2020 if no additional emission controls are implemented. As a result, PM2.5 concentrations will increase; however O3 concentrations will decrease in most areas due to increased NOx emissions and VOC-limited O3 chemistry. Taking Zaozhuang Municipality in this region as a case study, we examine possible changes in emissions in 2020 given projected growth in energy consumption with no additional controls utilized (BAU), with adoption of best available end-of-pipe controls (BACT), and with advanced, low-emission coal gasification technologies (ACGT) which are capable of gasifying the high-sulfur coal that is abundant in China. Emissions of NH3 are projected to be 20% higher, NMVOC 50% higher, and all other species 130-250% higher in 2020 BAU than in 2000. Both alternative 2020 emission scenarios would reduce emissions relative to BAU. Adoption of ACGT, which meets only 24% of energy service demand in Zaozhuang in 2020 would reduce emissions more than BACT with 100% penetration. In addition, coal gasification technologies create an opportunity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by capturing and sequestering CO2 emissions below ground. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Photochemistry occurring in biomass burning plumes over the tropical south Atlantic is analyzed using data collected during the Transport and Atmospheric Chemistry Near the Equator-Atlantic aircraft expedition conducted during the tropical dry season in September 1993 and a photochemical point model. Enhancement ratios (ΔY/ΔX, where Δ indicates the enhancement of a compound in the plume above the local background mixing ratio, Y are individual hydrocarbons CO, O3, N2O, HNO3, peroxyacetyl nitrate (PAN), CH2O, acetone, H2O2, CH3OOH, HCOOH, CH3OOH or aerosols and X is CO or CO2) are reported as a function of plume age inferred from the progression of Δnon-methane hydrocarbons/ΔCO enhancement ratios. Emission, formation, and loss of species in plumes can be diagnosed from progression of enhancement ratios from fresh to old plumes. O3 is produced in plumes over at least a 1 week period with mean ΔO3/ΔCO = 0.7 in old plumes. However, enhancement ratios in plumes can be influenced by changing background mixing ratios and by photochemical loss of CO. We estimate a downward correction of ~20% in enhancement ratios in old plumes relative to ΔCO to correct for CO loss. In a case study of a large persistent biomass burning plume at 4-km we found elevated concentrations of PAN in the fresh plume. The degradation of PAN helped maintain NOx mixing ratios in the plume where, over the course of a week, PAN was converted to HNO3. Ozone production in the plume was limited by the availability of NOx, and because of the short lifetime of O3 at 4-km, net ozone production in the plume was negligible. Within the region, the majority of O3 production takes place in air above meadian CO concentration, indicating that most O3 production occurs in plumes. Scaling up from the mean observed ΔO3/ΔCO in old plumes, we estimate a minimum regional O3 production of 17 x 1010 molecules O3 cm-2s-1. This O3 production rate is sufficient to fully explain the observed enhancement in tropospheric O3 over the tropical South Atlantic during the dry season.

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them., More than half the world's people are nourished by crops grown with synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers, which were made possible in the early twentieth century by the invention of the [...]