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Climate extremes are unprecedented straining healthcare systems and intensifying pre-existing issues. This commentary addresses lack of (1) knowledge on unintended health consequences of adaptation actions, (2) interdisciplinary research frameworks, and (3) forward-looking, context-based scenarios. Collaboration across natural, medical, and social sciences can facilitate shifts toward more sustainable and equitable healthcare.

Advances in impact modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed accurate drought monitoring and skilful forecasts that can drive decisions at the regional scale. State-of-the-art drought early-warning systems are currently based on statistical drought indicators, which do not account for dynamic regional vulnerabilities, and hence neglect the socio-economic impact for initiating actions. The transition from conventional physical forecasts of droughts toward impact-based forecasting (IbF) is a recent paradigm shift in early warning services, to ultimately bridge the gap between science and action. The demand to generate predictions of “what the weather will do” underpins the rising interest in drought IbF across all weather-sensitive sectors. Despite the large expected socio-economic benefits, migrating to this new paradigm presents myriad challenges. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of drought IbF, outlining the progress made in the field. Additionally, we present a road map highlighting current challenges and limitations in the science and practice of drought IbF and possible ways forward. We identify seven scientific and practical challenges/limitations: the contextual challenge (inadequate accounting for the spatio-sectoral dynamics of vulnerability and exposure), the human-water feedbacks challenge (neglecting how human activities influence the propagation of drought), the typology challenge (oversimplifying drought typology to meteorological), the model challenge (reliance on mainstream machine learning models), and the data challenge (mainly textual) with the linked sectoral and geographical limitations. Our vision is to facilitate the progress of drought IbF and its use in making informed and timely decisions on mitigation measures, thus minimizing the drought impacts globally.

This study synthesizes the current understanding of the hydrological, impact, and adaptation processes underlying drought-to-flood events (i.e., consecutive drought and flood events), and how they interact. Based on an analysis of literature and a global assessment of historic cases, we show how drought can affect flood risk and assess under which circumstances drought-to-flood interactions can lead to increased or decreased risk. We make a distinction between hydrological, socio-economic and adaptation processes. Hydrological processes include storage and runoff processes, which both seem to mostly play a role when the drought is a multiyear event and when the flood occurs during the drought. However, which process is dominant when and where, and how this is influenced by human intervention needs further research. Processes related to socio-economic impacts have been studied less than hydrological processes, but in general, changes in vulnerability seem to play an important role in increasing or decreasing drought-to-flood impacts. Additionally, there is evidence of increased water quality problems due to drought-to-flood events, when compared to drought or flood events by themselves. Adaptation affects both hydrological (e.g., through groundwater extraction) or socio-economic (e.g., influencing vulnerability) processes. There are many examples of adaptation, but there is limited evidence of when and where certain processes occur and why. Overall, research on drought-to-flood events is scarce. To increase our understanding of drought-to-flood events we need more comprehensive studies on the underlying hydrological, socio-economic, and adaptation processes and their interactions, as well as the circumstances that lead to the dominance of certain processes.

What role can a speculative political ecology play in (re)imaging urban futures of climate extremes? In recent years, narratives of dystopian futures of climate extremes have proliferated in geosciences, and across the media and creative arts. These anxiety-fueled narratives often generate a sense of resignation and unavoidability, which contributes to foreclosing the possibility of radically different political projects. In this article, we argue that these narratives conceal the coproduction of nature and society and treat nature as the problem, thereby locking futures into dystopic configurations. Political ecology scholarship can contribute to generate a politics of possibility by reconceptualizing the relations that constitute urban futures under climate extremes as socionatural. This, we argue, calls for a more experimental political ecology and new forms of theorizing. To this aim, we develop a speculative political ecological approach grounded on a numerical model that examines the potential of transformative change in the aftermath of extreme flood events in a capitalist city. Analytically, this opens a unique possibility of exploring urban futures beyond current trajectories, and how these alternative futures might transform vulnerability and inequality across urban spaces. From a policy perspective, we lay the foundations for a new generation of models that apprehend the role of power and agency in shaping uneven urban futures of climate extremes.

Advances in impact modeling and numerical weather forecasting have allowed accurate drought monitoring and skilful forecasts that can drive decisions at the regional scale. State-of-the-art drought early-warning systems are currently based on statistical drought indicators, which do not account for dynamic regional vulnerabilities, and hence neglect the socio-economic impact for initiating actions. The transition from conventional physical forecasts of droughts toward impact-based forecasting (IbF) is a recent paradigm shift in early warning services, to ultimately bridge the gap between science and action. The demand to generate predictions of “what the weather will do” underpins the rising interest in drought IbF across all weather-sensitive sectors. Despite the large expected socio-economic benefits, migrating to this new paradigm presents myriad challenges. In this article, we provide a comprehensive overview of drought IbF, outlining the progress made in the field. Additionally, we present a road map highlighting current challenges and limitations in the science and practice of drought IbF and possible ways forward. We identify seven scientific and practical challenges/limitations: the contextual challenge (inadequate accounting for the spatio-sectoral dynamics of vulnerability and exposure), the human-water feedbacks challenge (neglecting how human activities influence the propagation of drought), the typology challenge (oversimplifying drought typology to meteorological), the model challenge (reliance on mainstream machine learning models), and the data challenge (mainly textual) with the linked sectoral and geographical limitations. Our vision is to facilitate the progress of drought IbF and its use in making informed and timely decisions on mitigation measures, thus minimizing the drought impacts globally.

As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions, and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e. two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises (1) detailed review-style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; (2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterize management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability, and impacts of all events; and (3) a table of the indicators of change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators of change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses, e.g. focused on causal links between risk management; changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability; and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration, and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al., 2023, 10.5880/GFZ.4.4.2023.001).

Over the past two decades, more than 80 metropolitan cities across the world have faced severe water shortages due to droughts and unsustainable water use. Future projections are even more alarming, since urban water crises are expected to escalate and most heavily affect those who are socially, economically and politically disadvantaged. Here we show how social inequalities across different groups or individuals play a major role in the production and manifestation of such crises. Specifically, due to stark socioeconomic inequalities, urban elites are able to overconsume water while excluding less-privileged populations from basic access. Through an interdisciplinary approach, we model the uneven domestic water use across urban spaces and estimate water consumption trends for different social groups. The highly unequal metropolitan area of Cape Town serves as a case in point to illustrate how unsustainable water use by the elite can exacerbate urban water crises at least as much as climate change or population growth., Title in the list of papers of Elisa Savelli's thesis: Unsustainable consumption by elites drives water crisis

Societal awareness is a crucial factor driving floodplain dynamics. When modelling these dynamics, flood awareness decay is considered constant. However, empirical studies have shown that the intensity of an experienced event can influence awareness decay. Here we explore and model the influence of variable flood awareness decay on flood losses for two types of societies that cope with flooding by adopting structural (techno society) or nonstructural (green society) protection measures. We modified an established socio-hydrological model and performed three synthetic experiments with multiple scenarios of flood awareness decay, flood intensity, and frequency. We found that, when modelling techno societies, assuming a constant awareness decay leads to underestimating societal flood awareness after severe flood events. In contrast, overestimation of flood awareness occurs when using constant awareness decay for green societies. This might lead to overestimating the effects of human–flood dynamics, such as the levee effect and adaptation effects., QC 20230420

Since ancient times, mankind has faced a constant battle against natural hazards. From the earliest stages of human communication, when human beings communicate by some sort of harsh grunts and unintelligible words, people were struck by the awe-inspiring power of nature as floods, storms, earthquakes, and other events which reshaped their environment and way of living. However, among these events, droughts have been particularly devastating, and have left a profound mark on human history. Throughout centuries, droughts have forced communities to adapt and evolve in response to changing environmental conditions. In California, the frequency and severity of droughts have increased in recent decades, leading to significant changes in land use patterns. These changes have impacted the economy, social structure, and ecology of the region, making the study of land use changes after drought periods a crucial area of research. In this master thesis, the effects of droughts on land use in California will be deeply explored, analysing the outcome and impacts resulting from extreme dry events in the state, and identifying potential climate adaptation actions that can be implemented based on an enhanced understanding of the consequences of droughts on land use. By understanding the complex relationship between droughts and land use, mankind may better prepare and adapt to the challenges posed by future climate change and other environmental stressors., Outgoing

Widely available digital technologies are empowering citizens who are increasingly well informed and involved in numerous water, climate, and environmental challenges. Citizen science can serve many different purposes, from the "pleasure of doing science" to complementing observations, increasing scientific literacy, and supporting collaborative behaviour to solve specific water management problems. Still, procedures on how to incorporate citizens' knowledge effectively to inform policy and decision-making are lagging behind. Moreover, general conceptual frameworks are unavailable, preventing the widespread uptake of citizen science approaches for more participatory cross-sectorial water governance. In this work, we identify the shared constituents, interfaces, and interlinkages between hydrological sciences and other academic and non-academic disciplines in addressing water issues. Our goal is to conceptualize a transdisciplinary framework for valuing citizen science and advancing the hydrological sciences. Joint efforts between hydrological, computer, and social sciences are envisaged for integrating human sensing and behavioural mechanisms into the framework. Expanding opportunities of online communities complement the fundamental value of on-site surveying and indigenous knowledge. This work is promoted by the Citizens AND HYdrology (CANDHY) Working Group established by the International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS).