Search

Nature-based solutions for mitigating climate change focus largely on land management to reduce carbon emissions and enhance carbon sequestration. Tree planting, commonly advocated for carbon offset, threatens grassland biodiversity and may induce positive radiative forcing (warming) by lowering albedo. Before making decisions about land-use changes in grasslands, an understanding of the fine-scale albedo of grassy versus woody vegetation is needed. Existing satellite-based albedo products offer global coverage with temporally fine, but spatially coarse, resolution, whereas fine-scale in situ grassland albedo data are sparse. We examined the hypotheses that albedo varies seasonally between grass type patches, between shrub and grass patches, and with grazing at the patch scale. Using a tripod-mounted albedometer, we quantified albedo of seven distinct grassland patches in South Africa’s eastern Karoo during early and late dormancy and growing seasons. Patches included intensely-grazed grazing lawn (Cynodon dactylon), grazed and less-grazed red tussock grass (Themeda triandra), grazed and less-grazed white tussock grass (Eragrostis lehmanniana), shrub (Pentzia incana) encroached grass, and bare ground. Season influenced albedo in all patches and, additionally, we found strong differences for the same period between years due to varying rainfall and temperature patterns. For grass-dominated patches, albedo differences were most pronounced during early dormancy, likely due to an effect of grass inflorescences. Albedo of intensely-grazed grazing lawns was consistently higher than other patches, except during early dormancy when white tussock grass albedo was equally high. We found no albedo difference between grazed and less-grazed tussock patches of either red or white grass. Shrub-encroached patches exhibited consistently lower albedo than other patches. Our findings underscore the nuanced relationship between grassland patches and albedo, with shrub encroachment

OBJECTIVES: To estimate notification rates for infectious syphilis in women of reproductive age and congenital syphilis in Australia. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study; analysis of national infectious syphilis and enhanced congenital syphilis surveillance data. SETTING, PARTICIPANTS: Women aged 15-44 years diagnosed with infectious syphilis, and babies with congenital syphilis, Australia, 2011-2021. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers and rates of infectious syphilis notifications, by Indigenous status and age group; numbers and rates of congenital syphilis, by Indigenous status of the infant; antenatal care history for mothers of infants born with congenital syphilis. RESULTS: During 2011-2021, 5011 cases of infectious syphilis in women aged 15-44 years were notified. The notification rate for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women rose from 56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 45-65) cases per 100 000 in 2011 to 227 (95% CI, 206-248) cases per 100 000 population in 2021; for non-Indigenous women, it rose from 1.1 (95% CI, 0.8-1.4) to 9.2 (95% CI, 8.4-10.1) cases per 100 000 population. The notification rate was higher for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander women than for non-Indigenous women (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 23.1; 95% CI, 19.7-27.1), lower for 15-24- (IRR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9) and 35-44-year-old women (IRR, 0.6; 95% CI, 0.5-0.7) than for 25-34-year-old women, and higher in remote regions than in major cities (IRR, 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2-3.8). During 2011-2021, 74 cases of congenital syphilis were notified, the annual number increasing from six in 2011 to a peak of 17 in 2020; the rate was consistently higher among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander infants than among non-Indigenous infants (2021: 38.3 v 2.1 per 100 000 live births). The mothers of 32 infants with congenital syphilis (43%) had not received antenatal care. CONCLUSIONS: The number of infectious syphilis notifications for women of reproductive age increased in Australia during 2011-20

Objectives: The aim of the study was to describe time trends in cancer incidence in people living with HIV (PLHIV) in Australia between 1982 and 2012. Methods: A population-based prospective study was conducted using data linkage between the national HIV and cancer registries. Invasive cancers identified in PLHIV were grouped into AIDS-defining cancers (ADCs), infection-related non-ADCs (NADCs), and non-infection-related NADCs. Crude and age-standardized incidence rates of cancers were calculated and compared over five time periods: 1982–1995, 1996–1999, 2000–2004, 2005–2008 and 2009–2012, roughly reflecting advances in HIV antiretroviral therapy. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) compared with the Australian general population were calculated for each time period. Generalized linear models were developed to assess time trends in crude and age-standardized incidences. Results: For ADCs, the crude and age-standardized incidences of Kaposi sarcoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma substantially declined over time (P-trend < 0.001 for all) but SIRs remained significantly elevated. For infection-related NADCs, there were significant increases in the crude incidences of anal, liver and head and neck cancers. Age-standardized incidences increased for anal cancer (P-trend = 0.002) and liver cancer (P-trend < 0.001). SIRs were significantly elevated for anal cancer, liver cancer and Hodgkin lymphoma. For non-infection-related NADCs, the crude incidence of colorectal, lung and prostate cancers increased over time, but age-standardized incidences remained stable. Conclusions: Continuous improvements and high coverage of antiretroviral therapy have reduced the incidence of ADCs in PLHIV in Australia. Clinical monitoring of anal and liver cancers in people living with HIV should be performed, given the increasing incidence of these cancers.

The ability to treat gonorrhoea with current first-line drugs is threatened by the global spread of extensively drug resistant (XDR) Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) strains. In Australia, urban transmission is high among men who have sex with men (MSM) and importation of an XDR NG strain in this population could result in an epidemic that would be difficult and costly to control. An individual-based, anatomical site-specific mathematical model of NG transmission among Australian MSM was developed and used to evaluate the potential for elimination of an imported NG strain under a range of case-based and population-based test-andtreat strategies. When initiated upon detection of the imported strain, these strategies enhance the probability of elimination and reduce the outbreak size compared with current practice (current testing levels and no contact tracing). The most effective strategies combine testing targeted at regular and casual partners with increased rates of population testing. However, even with the most effective strategies, outbreaks can persist for up to 2 years post-detection. Our simulations suggest that local elimination of imported NG strains can be achieved with high probability using combined case-based and population-based test-and-treat strategies. These strategies may be an effective means of preserving current treatments in the event of wider XDR NG emergence.

Background: Substantial declines in genital warts have been observed in countries with quadrivalent/nonavalent human papillomavirus (q/n HPV) vaccination programmes, with Australia showing the most pronounced and long-term reductions. No study has assessed progress towards elimination of genital warts in a nation-wide sample of patients, and migrants’ contribution to population-level control of genital warts. We assessed Australia's progress towards genital warts elimination by examining trends in diagnoses in Australian- and overseas-born patients of sexual health clinics (SHCs) across Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional trend analysis of new genital warts diagnoses among first-time patients of 34 SHCs, between 2004 and 2018, was performed. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated using Poisson regression models, for comparing trends in proportions of new genital warts diagnoses in Australian- and overseas-born patients during the pre-vaccination era (2004-2007) and the vaccination era (2008-2018), and by 2018 relative to 2004-2007. Findings: A total of 439,957 new patients (Australian-born: 230,230; overseas-born: 209,727) were seen at SHCs, 6•4% were diagnosed with genital warts (Australian-born: 7•1%; overseas-born: 5•6%). By 2018, there had been a 64% reduction in the proportion of all SHC patients with a genital warts diagnosis relative to 2004-2007 (RR: 0•36, 95% CI: 0•35-0•38). The decline was more pronounced at 72% (RR: 0•28, 95% CI: 0 •27-0•30) among Australian-born patients, with the greatest reduction in women and men aged <21 years, at 98% (RR: 0•02, 95% CI: 0•01-0•03) and 92% (RR: 0•08, 95% CI: 0•06-0•11), respectively. By 2018, there was a 49% reduction in the proportion of overseas-born patients diagnosed with genital warts (RR: 0•51, 95% CI:0•48-0•54), and a 21% reduction in overseas-born patients from countries with no or bivalent HPV (bHPV) vaccination programme (RR: 0•79, 95% CI: 0•71-0•90). Interpretation: The substantial reductions in Australian-born

Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

For 27 years, national prospective data on selected rare childhood diseases have been collected monthly by the Australian Paediatric Surveillance Unit (APSU) from paediatricians and other clinical specialists who report cases in children aged up to 16 years. We report here the annual results of APSU surveillance in 2020 for ten rare communicable diseases and complications of communicable diseases, namely: acute flaccid paralysis (AFP); congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection; neonatal herpes simplex virus (HSV) infection; perinatal exposure to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV); paediatric HIV infection; severe complications of seasonal influenza; juvenile onset recurrent respiratory papillomatosis (JoRRP); congenital rubella syndrome; congenital varicella syndrome; and neonatal varicella infection. We describe the results for each disease in the context of the total period of study, including demographics, clinical characteristics, treatment and short-term outcomes. Despite challenges presented by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2020, more than 1,400 paediatricians reported regularly to the APSU and an overall monthly reporting rate of > 90% was achieved. The minimum AFP target of 1 case per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years was achieved and there were few cases of vaccine-preventable diseases (JoRRP, rubella, varicella). However, high cases of congenital CMV, neonatal HSV and perinatal exposure to HIV persist. There were no severe complications of seasonal influenza reported for the first time in 13 years. This is consistent with other surveillance data reporting a decline of influenza and other communicable diseases in 2020, and likely reflects the wider effects of public health measures to reduce transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the Australian community.

Background: Substantial declines in genital warts have been observed in countries with quadrivalent/nonavalent human papillomavirus (q/n HPV) vaccination programmes, with Australia showing the most pronounced and long-term reductions. No study has assessed progress towards elimination of genital warts in a nation-wide sample of patients, and migrants' contribution to population-level control of genital warts. We assessed Australia's progress towards genital warts elimination by examining trends in diagnoses in Australian- and overseas-born patients of sexual health clinics (SHCs) across Australia. Methods: A cross-sectional trend analysis of new genital warts diagnoses among first-time patients of 34 SHCs, between 2004 and 2018, was performed. Rate ratios (RR) were calculated using Poisson regression models, for comparing trends in proportions of new genital warts diagnoses in Australian- and overseas-born patients during the pre-vaccination era (2004-2007) and the vaccination era (2008-2018), and by 2018 relative to 2004-2007. Findings: A total of 439,957 new patients (Australian-born: 230,230; overseas-born: 209,727) were seen at SHCs, 6•4% were diagnosed with genital warts (Australian-born: 7•1%; overseas-born: 5•6%). By 2018, there had been a 64% reduction in the proportion of all SHC patients with a genital warts diagnosis relative to 2004-2007 (RR: 0•36, 95% CI: 0•35-0•38). The decline was more pronounced at 72% (RR: 0•28, 95% CI: 0 •27-0•30) among Australian-born patients, with the greatest reduction in women and men aged <21 years, at 98% (RR: 0•02, 95% CI: 0•01-0•03) and 92% (RR: 0•08, 95% CI: 0•06-0•11), respectively. By 2018, there was a 49% reduction in the proportion of overseas-born patients diagnosed with genital warts (RR: 0•51, 95% CI:0•48-0•54), and a 21% reduction in overseas-born patients from countries with no or bivalent HPV (bHPV) vaccination programme (RR: 0•79, 95% CI: 0•71-0•90). Interpretation: The substantial reductions in Australian-born

Climate variability in the tropical Pacific affects global climate on a wide range of time scales. On interannual time scales, the tropical Pacific is home to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Decadal variations and changes in the tropical Pacific, referred to here collectively as tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV), also profoundly affect the climate system. Here, we use TPDV to refer to any form of decadal climate variability or change that occurs in the atmosphere, the ocean, and over land within the tropical Pacific. “Decadal,” which we use in a broad sense to encompass multiyear through multidecadal time scales, includes variability about the mean state on decadal time scales, externally forced mean-state changes that unfold on decadal time scales, and decadal variations in the behavior of higher-frequency modes like ENSO.

INTRODUCTION: Cholesterol levels have been associated with age-related cognitive decline, however, such an association has not been comprehensively explored in people with Parkinson's disease (PD). To address this uncertainty, the current cross-sectional study examined the cholesterol profile and cognitive performance in a cohort of PD patients. METHODS: Cognitive function was evaluated using two validated assessments (ACE-R and SCOPA-COG) in 182 people with PD from the Australian Parkinson's Disease Registry. Total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and Triglyceride (TRG) levels were examined within this cohort. The influence of individual lipid subfractions on domain-specific cognitive performance was investigated using covariate-adjusted generalised linear models. RESULTS: Females with PD exhibited significantly higher lipid subfraction levels (TC, HDL, and LDL) when compared to male counterparts. While accounting for covariates, HDL levels were strongly associated with poorer performance across multiple cognitive domains in females but not males. Conversely, TC and LDL levels were not associated with cognitive status in people with PD. CONCLUSION: Higher serum HDL associates with poorer cognitive function in females with PD and presents a sex-specific biomarker for cognitive impairment in PD.