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For Williamstown tide gauge, at the northern‐most point of Port Phillip Bay (PPB), Melbourne, Victoria, tide registers from 1872 to 1966 and marigrams from 1950 to 1966, were digitized to extend sea‐level records back almost 100 years. Despite some vertical datum issues in the early part of the record, the data set is suitable for extreme sea‐level trend analysis after removal of the annual mean sea level. The newly digitized data was combined with the digital record to produce a combined record from 1872 to 2020. Analysis of this record revealed known problems of siltation of the tide gauge stilling well and associated reduction in tidal range at times during 1880–1895 and 1910–1940. A positive trend in tidal amplitude of 0.41 ± 0.01 mm yr−1 was found over 1966–2020, likely due to reduced hydraulic friction at the narrow entrance to PPB. Extreme sea‐level trends were examined over 1872–2020 for storm tides (the combination of storm surge and tide) after removal of the annual mean, and residuals after subtraction of the predicted tides. A non‐stationary Gumbel distribution with a time‐varying location parameter revealed statistically significant declining trends in the residuals of −0.73 ± 0.02 mm yr−1, consistent with the observed poleward movement of storm surge‐producing mid‐latitude weather systems. For storm tides a smaller declining trend of −0.40 ± 0.01 mm yr−1 was found. These trends are approximately an order of magnitude smaller than the current positive rates of mean sea level rise, meaning that storm tide hazard will continue to increase in the future. This information is relevant for future adaptation planning. Plain Language Summary: Sea levels recorded by tide gauges can be studied to understand how sea levels are changing due to mean sea‐level rise (SLR) from ocean warming and melting of land‐based ice as well as due to changes in extreme sea levels (storm tides) due to the combination of astronomical tides and severe‐weather‐induced storm surges. Digitizing historical paper tide gauge records lengthens the digital records and enables more reliable trend analysis. In this study, tide records from 1872 to 1966 were digitized for the Williamstown tide gauge, within the semi‐enclosed Port Phillip Bay, in southeastern Australia, lengthening the existing digital record by almost 100 years. After removing the trend due to SLR, a small negative trend in extreme sea levels was found. Looking at the components separately, a small negative trend in storm surges was found, consistent with the observed poleward movement of the weather systems that cause them. A positive trend in tidal range was found, possibly due to more tidal in and outflow through the narrow entrance to the bay under SLR. The net effect of SLR and storm‐tide trends is an increasing trend in extreme sea‐levels. This information is relevant for coastal managers considering coastal adaptation options. Key Points: Sub‐daily data for the Williamstown, Australia tide gauge has been extended back to 1872 through digitization of paper recordsTrends in extreme sea level events show a small declining trend over the entire record although trends in tidal range are positive over recent decades [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums, and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science pertaining to historical changes to flood risk focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice, design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1 % annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are few to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarize the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and that there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events, or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1% annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are little to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarise the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice, to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally, however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide-surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, twenty-year long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981-1999 and 2081-2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Results provide insights into how future atmospheric circulation changes may impact Australia's coastal zone and highlight regions of potential sensitivity to atmospheric circulation changes. Areas of note are the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north where changes to the northwest monsoon could lead to relatively large increases in extreme sea levels during Austral summer. For the southern mainland coast the simulated scenarios suggest that a southward movement of the subtropical ridge leads to a small reduction in sea level extremes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For many climate change impacts such as drought and heat waves, global and national frameworks for climate services are providing ever more critical support to adaptation activities. Coastal zones are especially in need of climate services for adaptation, as they are increasingly threatened by sea level rise and its impacts, such as submergence, flooding, shoreline erosion, salinization and wetland change. In this paper, we examine how annual to multi-decadal sea level projections can be used within coastal climate services (CCS). To this end, we review the current state-of-the art of coastal climate services in the US, Australia and France, and identify lessons learned. More broadly, we also review current barriers in the development of CCS, and identify research and development efforts for overcoming barriers and facilitating their continued growth. The latter includes: (1) research in the field of sea level, coastal and adaptation science and (2) cross-cutting research in the area of user interactions, decision making, propagation of uncertainties and overall service architecture design. We suggest that standard approaches are required to translate relative sea level information into the forms required to inform the wide range of relevant decisions across coastal management, including coastal adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]