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Selective IgA deficiency (SIgAD) is the most common inborn error of immunity (IEI). Unlike many IEIs, evidence of a role for highly penetrant rare variants in SIgAD is lacking. Previous SIgAD studies have had limited power to identify common variants due to their small sample size. We overcame this problem first through meta-analysis of two existing GWAS. This identified four novel common-variant associations and enrichment of SIgAD-associated variants in genes linked to Mendelian IEIs. SIgAD showed evidence of shared genetic architecture with serum IgA and a number of immune-mediated diseases. We leveraged this pleiotropy through the conditional false discovery rate procedure, conditioning our SIgAD meta-analysis on large GWAS of asthma and rheumatoid arthritis, and our own meta-analysis of serum IgA. This identified an additional 18 variants, increasing the number of known SIgAD-associated variants to 27 and strengthening the evidence for a polygenic, common-variant aetiology for SIgAD., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing Interest C.W. receives funding from GSK and MSD and is a part time employee of GSK. These companies had no input into this work., (Copyright © 2024. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Background: Management strategies and clinical outcomes vary substantially in patients newly diagnosed with Crohn's disease. We evaluated the use of a putative prognostic biomarker to guide therapy by assessing outcomes in patients randomised to either top-down (ie, early combined immunosuppression with infliximab and immunomodulator) or accelerated step-up (conventional) treatment strategies., Methods: PROFILE (PRedicting Outcomes For Crohn's disease using a moLecular biomarker) was a multicentre, open-label, biomarker-stratified, randomised controlled trial that enrolled adults with newly diagnosed active Crohn's disease (Harvey-Bradshaw Index ≥7, either elevated C-reactive protein or faecal calprotectin or both, and endoscopic evidence of active inflammation). Potential participants had blood drawn to be tested for a prognostic biomarker derived from T-cell transcriptional signatures (PredictSURE-IBD assay). Following testing, patients were randomly assigned, via a secure online platform, to top-down or accelerated step-up treatment stratified by biomarker subgroup (IBDhi or IBDlo), endoscopic inflammation (mild, moderate, or severe), and extent (colonic or other). Blinding to biomarker status was maintained throughout the trial. The primary endpoint was sustained steroid-free and surgery-free remission to week 48. Remission was defined by a composite of symptoms and inflammatory markers at all visits. Flare required active symptoms (HBI ≥5) plus raised inflammatory markers (CRP >upper limit of normal or faecal calprotectin ≥200 μg/g, or both), while remission was the converse-ie, quiescent symptoms (HBI <5) or resolved inflammatory markers (both CRP ≤ the upper limit of normal and calprotectin <200 μg/g) or both. Analyses were done in the full analysis (intention-to-treat) population. The trial has completed and is registered (ISRCTN11808228)., Findings: Between Dec 29, 2017, and Jan 5, 2022, 386 patients (mean age 33·6 years [SD 13·2]; 179 [46%] female, 207 [54%] male) were randomised: 193 to the top-down group and 193 to the accelerated step-up group. Median time from diagnosis to trial enrolment was 12 days (range 0-191). Primary outcome data were available for 379 participants (189 in the top-down group; 190 in the accelerated step-up group). There was no biomarker-treatment interaction effect (absolute difference 1 percentage points, 95% CI -15 to 15; p=0·944). Sustained steroid-free and surgery-free remission was significantly more frequent in the top-down group than in the accelerated step-up group (149 [79%] of 189 patients vs 29 [15%] of 190 patients, absolute difference 64 percentage points, 95% CI 57 to 72; p<0·0001). There were fewer adverse events (including disease flares) and serious adverse events in the top-down group than in the accelerated step-up group (adverse events: 168 vs 315; serious adverse events: 15 vs 42), with fewer complications requiring abdominal surgery (one vs ten) and no difference in serious infections (three vs eight)., Interpretation: Top-down treatment with combination infliximab plus immunomodulator achieved substantially better outcomes at 1 year than accelerated step-up treatment. The biomarker did not show clinical utility. Top-down treatment should be considered standard of care for patients with newly diagnosed active Crohn's disease., Funding: Wellcome and PredictImmune Ltd., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests NMN reports personal fees from Galapagos, Janssen, Lilly, SBK Healthcare, and Takeda outside the submitted work; and grants from Dr Falk, Pfizer, Pharmacosmos, and Tillotts Pharma outside the submitted work. JCL reports consultancy fees from AbbVie, AgPlus Diagnostics, PredictImmune, and C4X Discover outside the submitted work; and grants from GSK outside the submitted work. KVP reports personal fees from AbbVie, DrFalk, Galapagos, Janssen, PredictImmune, Pfizer, and Takeda outside the submitted work; grants from AbbVie, Celltrion, Dr Falk, Ferring, Janssen, Takeda, and Tillotts Pharma outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AbbVie, Galapagos, Janssen, and Pfizer outside the submitted work. TA reports personal fees from Amgen, Celltrion, Janssen, Lilly, Pfizer, and Tillotts Pharma; and grants from Biogen, Celltrion, Galapagos, Nova Pharmaceuticals, Pfizer, Roche, and Takeda outside the submitted work. JWB reports personal fees from Janssen outside the submitted work. RC reports personal fees from AbbVie, Galapagos, and Lilly outside the submitted work, grants from Celltrion, Ferring, and Tillotts Pharma outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AbbVie and Bristol Myers Squibb outside the submitted work. SD reports personal fees from AbbVie, Ferring, Janssen, and Takeda outside the submitted work; grants from AbbVie, Dr Falk, and Janssen, outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AbbVie outside the submitted work. DD reports personal fees from Takeda outside the submitted work; and grants from AbbVie and Janssen outside the submitted work. PMI reports personal fees from AbbVie, Arena, Boehringer-Ingelheim, BMS, Celgene, Celltrion, Dr Falk, Galapagos, Genentech, Gilead, Hospira, Janssen, Lilly, MSD, Pfizer, Prometheus, Sandoz, Samsung Bioepis, Sapphire Medical, Takeda, Topivert, VH2, Vifor Pharma, and Warner Chilcott outside the submitted work; and grants from AbbVie and Takeda outside the submitted work. AJK reports personal fees from AbbVie, Galapagos, and Takeda outside the submitted work; grants from AbbVie, Janssen, and Tillotts Pharma outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AbbVie and Janssen outside the submitted work. CM reports grants from Janssen outside the submitted work. CSP reports personal fees from Dr Falk outside the submitted work. TR reports personal fees from AbbVie, Arena, Aslan, AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, BMS, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Gilead, GSK, Heptares, LabGenius, Novartis, Numab, Janssen, Pfizer, Roche, Takeda, UCB, and XAP therapeutics outside the submitted work; grants from AbbVie outside the submitted work; and fees from data monitoring board membership of UCB outside the submitted work. SS reports personal fees from AbbVie, Celltrion, Dr Falk, Ipsen, Janssen, and Takeda outside the submitted work. HRTW reports fees from advisory board membership of Pfizer outside the submitted work. SV reports personal fees from AbbVie, Abivax, AbolerISPharma, AgomAb, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts Clinical Trials), Arena Pharmaceuticals, AstraZeneca, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Celgene, Cytoki Pharma, Dr Falk Pharma, Ferring, Galapagos, Genentech-Roche, Gilead, GSK, Hospira, Imidomics, Janssen, J&J, Lilly, Materia Prima, Mestag Therapeutics, MiroBio, Morphic, MrMHealth, MSD, Mundipharma, Pfizer, Prodigest, Progenity, Prometheus, Surrozen, Takeda, Theravance, Tillotts Pharma, VectivBio, Ventyx, and Zealand Pharma outside the submitted work; and grants from AbbVie, Galapagos, J&J, Pfizer, and Takeda outside the submitted work. VJ reports personal fees from AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts Clinical Trials), Arena Pharmaceuticals, Asahi Kasei Pharma, Asieris, AstraZeneca, Avoro Capital, BMS, Celltrion, Endpoint Health, Enthera, Ferring, Flagship Pioneering, Fresenius Kabi, Galapagos, Gilde Healthcare, GSK, Genentech, Gilead, Innomar, JAMP, Janssen, Lilly, Merck, Metacrine, Mylan, Pandion, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Protagonist, Prometheus, Reistone Biopharma, Roche, Roivant, Sandoz, SCOPE, Second Genome, Sorriso Pharmaceuticals, Takeda, Teva, Topivert, Ventyx, and Vividion outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AbbVie, Alimentiv (formerly Robarts Clinical Trials), Arena Pharmaceuticals, Asahi Kasei Pharma, Asieris, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celltrion, Ferring, Flagship Pioneering, Fresenius Kabi, Galapagos, Gilde Healthcare, GSK, Genentech, Gilead, Innomar, JAMP, Janssen, Lilly, Merck, Metacran, Mylan, Pandion, Pendopharm, Pfizer, Protagonist, Prometheus, Reistone Biopharma, Roche, Sandoz, SCOPE, Second Genome, Sorriso Pharmaceuticals, Takeda, Teva, Topivert, Ventyx, and Vividion outside the submitted work. GRDH reports personal fees from AbbVie, Alimentiv, AstraZeneca, Immunic, J&J, Lilly, Pfizer, Takeda, Tillotts, and Ventyx outside the submitted work; grants from AbbVie, BMS, Lilly, Pfizer, and Takeda outside the submitted work; and fees from advisory board membership of AstraZeneca, Galapagos, and Seres Health outside the submitted work. EFM reports being a co-founder and receiving consultancy fees from PredictImmune; and holds PredictImmune stock or stock options. PAL reports being a co-founder and receiving consultancy fees from PredictImmune; and holds PredictImmune stock or stock options. JOL reports personal fees from AbbVie, Atlantic Healthcare, Bristol Meyer Squibb, Celgene, Celltrion, Engytix, Eli Lilly, Ferring, Galapagos, Gilead, GSK, Janssen, MSD, Norgine, Pfizer, Shire, and Takeda outside the submitted work; and grants from AbbVie, Ferring, Gilead, Takeda, and Shire outside the submitted work. NAK reports personal fees from Amgen, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celltrion, Falk, Galapagos, Janssen, Pfizer, Pharmacosmos, Takeda, and Tillotts Pharma outside the submitted work; and reports data monitoring board membership for the BEACON study outside the submitted work. KGCS reports being a co-founder and receiving consultancy fees from Predictimmune; consultancy fees from GSK outside the submitted work; and holds PredictImmune stock or stock options. MP reports personal fees from Janssen and Takeda outside the submitted work; and grants from AstraZeneca, Galapagos, Gilead, and Pfizer outside the submitted work. All other authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Diagnostic and prognostic models are increasingly important in medicine and inform many clinical decisions. Recently, machine learning approaches have shown improvement over conventional modeling techniques by better capturing complex interactions between patient covariates in a data-driven manner. However, the use of machine learning introduces technical and practical challenges that have thus far restricted widespread adoption of such techniques in clinical settings. To address these challenges and empower healthcare professionals, we present an open-source machine learning framework, AutoPrognosis 2.0, to facilitate the development of diagnostic and prognostic models. AutoPrognosis leverages state-of-the-art advances in automated machine learning to develop optimized machine learning pipelines, incorporates model explainability tools, and enables deployment of clinical demonstrators, without requiring significant technical expertise. To demonstrate AutoPrognosis 2.0, we provide an illustrative application where we construct a prognostic risk score for diabetes using the UK Biobank, a prospective study of 502,467 individuals. The models produced by our automated framework achieve greater discrimination for diabetes than expert clinical risk scores. We have implemented our risk score as a web-based decision support tool, which can be publicly accessed by patients and clinicians. By open-sourcing our framework as a tool for the community, we aim to provide clinicians and other medical practitioners with an accessible resource to develop new risk scores, personalized diagnostics, and prognostics using machine learning techniques. Software: https://github.com/vanderschaarlab/AutoPrognosis., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2023 Imrie et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Rationale: Autoimmunity is believed to play a role in idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension (IPAH). It is not clear whether this is causative or a bystander of disease and if it carries any prognostic or treatment significance. Objectives: To study autoimmunity in IPAH using a large cross-sectional cohort. Methods: Assessment of the circulating immune cell phenotype was undertaken using flow cytometry, and the profile of serum immunoglobulins was generated using a standardized multiplex array of 19 clinically validated autoantibodies in 473 cases and 946 control subjects. Additional glutathione S-transferase fusion array and ELISA data were used to identify a serum autoantibody to BMPR2 (bone morphogenetic protein receptor type 2). Clustering analyses and clinical correlations were used to determine associations between immunogenicity and clinical outcomes. Measurements and Main Results: Flow cytometric immune profiling demonstrates that IPAH is associated with an altered humoral immune response in addition to raised IgG3. Multiplexed autoantibodies were significantly raised in IPAH, and clustering demonstrated three distinct clusters: "high autoantibody," "low autoantibody," and a small "intermediate" cluster exhibiting high concentrations of ribonucleic protein complex. The high-autoantibody cluster had worse hemodynamics but improved survival. A small subset of patients demonstrated immunoglobulin reactivity to BMPR2. Conclusions: This study establishes aberrant immune regulation and presence of autoantibodies as key features in the profile of a significant proportion of patients with IPAH and is associated with clinical outcomes.

Clonal expansions driven by somatic mutations become pervasive across human tissues with age, including in the haematopoietic system, where the phenomenon is termed clonal haematopoiesis 1-4 . The understanding of how and when clonal haematopoiesis develops, the factors that govern its behaviour, how it interacts with ageing and how these variables relate to malignant progression remains limited 5,6 . Here we track 697 clonal haematopoiesis clones from 385 individuals 55 years of age or older over a median of 13 years. We find that 92.4% of clones expanded at a stable exponential rate over the study period, with different mutations driving substantially different growth rates, ranging from 5% (DNMT3A and TP53) to more than 50% per year (SRSF2 P95H ). Growth rates of clones with the same mutation differed by approximately ±5% per year, proportionately affecting slow drivers more substantially. By combining our time-series data with phylogenetic analysis of 1,731 whole-genome sequences of haematopoietic colonies from 7 individuals from an older age group, we reveal distinct patterns of lifelong clonal behaviour. DNMT3A-mutant clones preferentially expanded early in life and displayed slower growth in old age, in the context of an increasingly competitive oligoclonal landscape. By contrast, splicing gene mutations drove expansion only later in life, whereas TET2-mutant clones emerged across all ages. Finally, we show that mutations driving faster clonal growth carry a higher risk of malignant progression. Our findings characterize the lifelong natural history of clonal haematopoiesis and give fundamental insights into the interactions between somatic mutation, ageing and clonal selection., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

MicroRNAs are critical regulators of gene expression controlling cellular processes including inflammation. We explored their role in the pathogenesis of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and identified reduced expression of miR-374a-5p in IBD monocytes that correlated with a module of up-regulated genes related to the inflammatory response. Key proinflammatory module genes, including for example TNFα, IL1A, IL6, and OSM, were inversely correlated with miR-374a-5p and were validated in vitro. In colonic biopsies, miR-374a-5p was again reduced in expression and inversely correlated with the same inflammatory module, and its levels predicted subsequent response to anti-TNF therapy. Increased miR-374a-5p expression was shown to control macrophage-driven inflammation by suppressing proinflammatory mediators and to reduce the capacity of monocytes to migrate and activate T cells. Our findings suggest that miR-374a-5p reduction is a central driver of inflammation in IBD, and its therapeutic supplementation could reduce monocyte-driven inflammation in IBD or other immune-mediated diseases., (© 2022 Perez-Sanchez et al.)

B cells are important in immunity to both severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and vaccination, but B cell receptor (BCR) repertoire development in these contexts has not been compared. We analyze serial samples from 171 SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals and 63 vaccine recipients and find the global BCR repertoire differs between them. Following infection, immunoglobulin (Ig)G1/3 and IgA1 BCRs increase, somatic hypermutation (SHM) decreases, and, in severe disease, IgM and IgA clones are expanded. In contrast, after vaccination, the proportion of IgD/M BCRs increase, SHM is unchanged, and expansion of IgG clones is prominent. VH1-24, which targets the N-terminal domain (NTD) and contributes to neutralization, is expanded post infection except in the most severe disease. Infection generates a broad distribution of SARS-CoV-2-specific clones predicted to target the spike protein, while a more focused response after vaccination mainly targets the spike's receptor-binding domain. Thus, the nature of SARS-CoV-2 exposure differentially affects BCR repertoire development, potentially informing vaccine strategies., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2022. Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is an autoimmune disease characterised by T cell-mediated destruction of the insulin-producing β cells in the pancreas. Similar to other autoimmune diseases, the incidence of T1D is increasing globally. The discovery of insulin 100 years ago dramatically changed the outlook for people with T1D, preventing this from being a fatal condition. As we celebrate the centenary of this milestone, therapeutic options for T1D are once more at a turning point. Years of effort directed at developing immunotherapies are finally starting to pay off, with signs of progress in new onset and even preventative settings. Here, we review a selection of immunotherapies that have shown promise in preserving β cell function and highlight future considerations for immunotherapy in the T1D setting., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Immunology.)

Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a disease of insulin deficiency that results from autoimmune destruction of pancreatic islet β cells. The exact cause of T1D remains unknown, although asymptomatic islet autoimmunity lasting from weeks to years before diagnosis raises the possibility of intervention before the onset of clinical disease. The number, type, and titer of islet autoantibodies are associated with long-term disease risk but do not cause disease, and robust early predictors of individual progression to T1D onset remain elusive. The Environmental Determinants of Diabetes in the Young (TEDDY) consortium is a prospective cohort study aiming to determine genetic and environmental interactions causing T1D. Here, we analyzed longitudinal blood transcriptomes of 2013 samples from 400 individuals in the TEDDY study before both T1D and islet autoimmunity. We identified and interpreted age-associated gene expression changes in healthy infancy and age-independent changes tracking with progression to both T1D and islet autoimmunity, beginning before other evidence of islet autoimmunity was present. We combined multivariate longitudinal data in a Bayesian joint model to predict individual risk of T1D onset and validated the association of a natural killer cell signature with progression and the model's predictive performance on an additional 356 samples from 56 individuals in the independent Type 1 Diabetes Prediction and Prevention study. Together, our results indicate that T1D is characterized by early and longitudinal changes in gene expression, informing the immunopathology of disease progression and facilitating prediction of its course., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.)

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system (CNS) with the majority of cases characterised by relapsing/remitting (RRMS) attacks of neurologic dysfunction followed by variable resolution. Improving clinical outcomes in RRMS requires both a better understanding of the immunological mechanisms driving recurrent demyelination and better means of predicting future disease course to facilitate early targeted therapy. Here, we apply hypothesis-generating network transcriptomics to CD8 + cells isolated from patients in RRMS, identifying a signature reflecting expansion of a subset of CD8 + natural killer cells (NK8 + ) associated with favourable outcome. NK8 + are capable of regulating CD4 + T cell activation and proliferation in vitro, with reduced expression of HLA-G binding inhibitory receptors and consequent reduced sensitivity to HLA-G-mediated suppression. We identify surrogate markers of the NK8 + signature in peripheral blood leucocytes and validate their association with clinical outcome in an independent cohort, suggesting their measurement may facilitate early, targeted therapy in RRMS.

The clinical diagnosis of new-onset type 1 diabetes has, for many years, been considered relatively straightforward. Recently, however, there is increasing awareness that within this single clinical phenotype exists considerable heterogeneity: disease onset spans the complete age range; genetic susceptibility is complex; rates of progression differ markedly, as does insulin secretory capacity; and complication rates, glycemic control, and therapeutic intervention efficacy vary widely. Mechanistic and immunopathological studies typically show considerable patchiness across subjects, undermining conclusions regarding disease pathways. Without better understanding, type 1 diabetes heterogeneity represents a major barrier both to deciphering pathogenesis and to the translational effort of designing, conducting, and interpreting clinical trials of disease-modifying agents. This realization comes during a period of unprecedented change in clinical medicine, with increasing emphasis on greater individualization and precision. For complex disorders such as type 1 diabetes, the option of maintaining the "single disease" approach appears untenable, as does the notion of individualizing each single patient's care, obliging us to conceptualize type 1 diabetes less in terms of phenotypes (observable characteristics) and more in terms of disease endotypes (underlying biological mechanisms). Here, we provide our view on an approach to dissect heterogeneity in type 1 diabetes. Using lessons from other diseases and the data gathered to date, we aim to delineate a roadmap through which the field can incorporate the endotype concept into laboratory and clinical practice. We predict that such an effort will accelerate the implementation of precision medicine and has the potential for impact on our approach to translational research, trial design, and clinical management., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

B cells are important in the pathogenesis of many, and perhaps all, immune-mediated diseases. Each B cell expresses a single B cell receptor (BCR) 1 , and the diverse range of BCRs expressed by the total B cell population of an individual is termed the 'BCR repertoire'. Our understanding of the BCR repertoire in the context of immune-mediated diseases is incomplete, and defining this could provide new insights into pathogenesis and therapy. Here, we compared the BCR repertoire in systemic lupus erythematosus, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis, Crohn's disease, Behçet's disease, eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis, and immunoglobulin A (IgA) vasculitis by analysing BCR clonality, use of immunoglobulin heavy-chain variable region (IGHV) genes and-in particular-isotype use. An increase in clonality in systemic lupus erythematosus and Crohn's disease that was dominated by the IgA isotype, together with skewed use of the IGHV genes in these and other diseases, suggested a microbial contribution to pathogenesis. Different immunosuppressive treatments had specific and distinct effects on the repertoire; B cells that persisted after treatment with rituximab were predominately isotype-switched and clonally expanded, whereas the inverse was true for B cells that persisted after treatment with mycophenolate mofetil. Our comparative analysis of the BCR repertoire in immune-mediated disease reveals a complex B cell architecture, providing a platform for understanding pathological mechanisms and designing treatment strategies.

Objective: We have previously described a prognostic transcriptional signature in CD8 T cells that separates patients with IBD into two phenotypically distinct subgroups, termed IBD1 and IBD2. Here we sought to develop a blood-based test that could identify these subgroups without cell separation, and thus be suitable for clinical use in Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC)., Design: Patients with active IBD were recruited before treatment. Transcriptomic analyses were performed on purified CD8 T cells and/or whole blood. Phenotype data were collected prospectively. IBD1/IBD2 patient subgroups were identified by consensus clustering of CD8 T cell transcriptomes. In a training cohort, machine learning was used to identify groups of genes ('classifiers') whose differential expression in whole blood recreated the IBD1/IBD2 subgroups. Genes from the best classifiers were quantitative (q)PCR optimised, and further machine learning was used to identify the optimal qPCR classifier, which was locked down for further testing. Independent validation was sought in separate cohorts of patients with CD (n=66) and UC (n=57)., Results: In both validation cohorts, a 17-gene qPCR-based classifier stratified patients into two distinct subgroups. Irrespective of the underlying diagnosis, IBDhi patients (analogous to the poor prognosis IBD1 subgroup) experienced significantly more aggressive disease than IBDlo patients (analogous to IBD2), with earlier need for treatment escalation (hazard ratio=2.65 (CD), 3.12 (UC)) and more escalations over time (for multiple escalations within 18 months: sensitivity=72.7% (CD), 100% (UC); negative predictive value=90.9% (CD), 100% (UC))., Conclusion: This is the first validated prognostic biomarker that can predict prognosis in newly diagnosed patients with IBD and represents a step towards personalised therapy., Competing Interests: Competing interests: DB, JCL, EM, PAL and KGCS are coinventors on a patent covering the method of assessing prognosis in IBD. EM, PAL and KGCS are cofounders and consultants for PredictImmune. JCL is a consultant for PredictImmune., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

For over a decade the term "Big data" has been used to describe the rapid increase in volume, variety and velocity of information available, not just in medical research but in almost every aspect of our lives. As scientists, we now have the capacity to rapidly generate, store and analyse data that, only a few years ago, would have taken many years to compile. However, "Big data" no longer means what it once did. The term has expanded and now refers not to just large data volume, but to our increasing ability to analyse and interpret those data. Tautologies such as "data analytics" and "data science" have emerged to describe approaches to the volume of available information as it grows ever larger. New methods dedicated to improving data collection, storage, cleaning, processing and interpretation continue to be developed, although not always by, or for, medical researchers. Exploiting new tools to extract meaning from large volume information has the potential to drive real change in clinical practice, from personalized therapy and intelligent drug design to population screening and electronic health record mining. As ever, where new technology promises "Big Advances," significant challenges remain. Here we discuss both the opportunities and challenges posed to biomedical research by our increasing ability to tackle large datasets. Important challenges include the need for standardization of data content, format, and clinical definitions, a heightened need for collaborative networks with sharing of both data and expertise and, perhaps most importantly, a need to reconsider how and when analytic methodology is taught to medical researchers. We also set "Big data" analytics in context: recent advances may appear to promise a revolution, sweeping away conventional approaches to medical science. However, their real promise lies in their synergy with, not replacement of, classical hypothesis-driven methods. The generation of novel, data-driven hypotheses based on interpretable models will always require stringent validation and experimental testing. Thus, hypothesis-generating research founded on large datasets adds to, rather than replaces, traditional hypothesis driven science. Each can benefit from the other and it is through using both that we can improve clinical practice.

Background: The course of Crohn's disease (CD) varies substantially between individuals, but reliable prognostic markers do not exist. This hinders disease management because patients with aggressive disease are undertreated by conventional 'step-up' therapy (in which treatment is gradually escalated in response to refractory or relapsing disease) while those with more indolent disease would be exposed to unnecessary treatment-related toxicity if a more aggressive 'top-down' approach was indiscriminately used. The Predicting outcomes for Crohn's disease using a molecular biomarker trial will assess whether a prognostic transcriptional biomarker, that we have developed and validated, can improve clinical outcomes by facilitating personalised therapy in CD. This represents the first the biomarker-stratified trial in inflammatory bowel disease., Methods and Analysis: This biomarker-stratified trial will compare the relative efficacy of 'top-down' and 'accelerated step-up' therapy between biomarker-defined subgroups of patients with newly diagnosed CD. 400 participants from ~50 UK centres will be recruited. Subjects within each biomarker subgroup (IBD hi or IBD lo ) will be randomised (1:1) to receive one of the treatment strategies until trial completion (48 weeks). The primary outcome is the incidence of sustained surgery and steroid-free remission from the completion of induction treatment through to week 48. Secondary outcomes include mucosal healing, quality-of-life assessments and surrogate measures of disease burden including number of flares, cumulative steroid exposure, number of hospital admissions and number of Crohn's-related surgeries (assessed hierarchically). Analyses will compare the relative benefit of the treatment strategies in each biomarker-defined subgroup, powered as an interaction analysis, to determine whether the biomarker can accurately match patients to the most appropriate therapy., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethical approval has been obtained and recruitment is under way at sites around the UK. Following trial completion and data analysis, the results of the trial will be submitted for publication in peer-reviewed journals and presented at international conferences., Trial Registration Number: ISRCTN11808228; Pre-results., Competing Interests: Competing interests: PAL, EFM, KGCS and JCL are coinventors on a patent covering the method of assessing prognosis in IBD. PAL, EFM and KGCS are cofounders and consultants for PredictImmune. PK and APS are employees of PredictImmune. JCL is a consultant for PredictImmune., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2018. Re-use permitted under CC BY. Published by BMJ.)

It has become increasingly clear that changes in metabolism are not just consequences of T cell activation but instead are also essential drivers of that process that shape the extent and nature of differentiation and function. The process of T cell exhaustion has been linked to the outcome of chronic immune responses in multiple contexts, including chronic infection, cancer and autoimmunity. Factors that regulate the development and maintenance of exhaustion are of increasing interest as targets of therapeutic modulation. Studies have shown T cell immunometabolism to be integral to the control and development of T cell exhaustion. Early metabolic changes are responsible for the later emergence of exhaustion, do not simply reflect changes secondary to chronic activation and are modifiable. Increased understanding of this metabolic control promises to improve the ability to modulate T cell immunity to chronic antigen stimulation in multiple contexts.

T cell exhaustion represents a continuous spectrum of cellular dysfunction induced during chronic viral infection, facilitating viral persistence and associating with poor clinical outcome. Modulation of T cell exhaustion can restore function in exhausted CD8 T cells, promoting viral clearance. Exhaustion has also been implicated as playing an important role in anti-tumour responses, whereby exhausted tumour-infiltrating lymphocytes fail to control tumour progression. More recently exhaustion has been linked to long-term clinical outcome in multiple autoimmune diseases but, in contrast to cancer or infection, it is associated with a favourable clinical outcome characterised by fewer relapses. An increasing understanding of key inhibitory signals promoting exhaustion has led to advances in therapy for chronic infection and cancer. An increasing understanding of this biology may facilitate novel treatment approaches for autoimmunity through the therapeutic induction of exhaustion., (Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

During acute viral infection CD8 T cells rapidly expand before contracting down to a persistent memory population that confers long-lasting immunity. However when the antigen persists, such as during chronic viral infection, a dysfunctional process termed 'exhaustion' limits the antiviral response, facilitating ongoing viraemia and poor clinical outcome. CD8 T-cell exhaustion was originally identified in lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus infection of mice; however, new evidence has shown that exhaustion is associated with the control of a wide range of human chronic inflammatory states, including chronic viral infection, autoimmunity and cancer. Consequently, an understanding of the mechanisms controlling exhaustion during chronic infection may also indicate new strategies for controlling other chronic inflammatory diseases. In particular, the success of immune checkpoint blockade as a form of cancer immunotherapy has prompted renewed efforts to understand how T-cell immunity to chronic antigenic stimulation might similarly be measured or modulated in autoimmune diseases. Here we summarise the mechanisms controlling T-cell exhaustion and how they relate to the control of autoimmune responses, providing a future perspective on measuring or manipulating exhaustion to personalise therapy.

Objectives: Type 1 interferons (IFN-1) are implicated in the pathogenesis of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), but most studies have only reported the effect of IFN-1 on mixed cell populations. We aimed to define modules of IFN-1-associated genes in purified leucocyte populations and use these as a basis for a detailed comparative analysis., Methods: CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, monocytes and neutrophils were purified from patients with SLE, other immune-mediated diseases and healthy volunteers and gene expression then determined by microarray. Modules of IFN-1-associated genes were defined using weighted gene coexpression network analysis. The composition and expression of these modules was analysed., Results: 1150 of 1288 IFN-1-associated genes were specific to myeloid subsets, compared with 11 genes unique to T cells. IFN-1 genes were more highly expressed in myeloid subsets compared with T cells. A subset of neutrophil samples from healthy volunteers (HV) and conditions not classically associated with IFN-1 signatures displayed increased IFN-1 gene expression, whereas upregulation of IFN-1-associated genes in T cells was restricted to SLE., Conclusions: Given the broad upregulation of IFN-1 genes in neutrophils including in some HV, investigators reporting IFN-1 signatures on the basis of whole blood samples should be cautious about interpreting this as evidence of bona fide IFN-1-mediated pathology. Instead, specific upregulation of IFN-1-associated genes in T cells may be a useful biomarker and a further mechanism by which elevated IFN-1 contributes to autoimmunity in SLE.

The clinical course of autoimmune and infectious disease varies greatly, even between individuals with the same condition. An understanding of the molecular basis for this heterogeneity could lead to significant improvements in both monitoring and treatment. During chronic infection the process of T-cell exhaustion inhibits the immune response, facilitating viral persistence. Here we show that a transcriptional signature reflecting CD8 T-cell exhaustion is associated with poor clearance of chronic viral infection, but conversely predicts better prognosis in multiple autoimmune diseases. The development of CD8 T-cell exhaustion during chronic infection is driven both by persistence of antigen and by a lack of accessory 'help' signals. In autoimmunity, we find that where evidence of CD4 T-cell co-stimulation is pronounced, that of CD8 T-cell exhaustion is reduced. We can reproduce the exhaustion signature by modifying the balance of persistent stimulation of T-cell antigen receptors and specific CD2-induced co-stimulation provided to human CD8 T cells in vitro, suggesting that each process plays a role in dictating outcome in autoimmune disease. The 'non-exhausted' T-cell state driven by CD2-induced co-stimulation is reduced by signals through the exhaustion-associated inhibitory receptor PD-1, suggesting that induction of exhaustion may be a therapeutic strategy in autoimmune and inflammatory disease. Using expression of optimal surrogate markers of co-stimulation/exhaustion signatures in independent data sets, we confirm an association with good clinical outcome or response to therapy in infection (hepatitis C virus) and vaccination (yellow fever, malaria, influenza), but poor outcome in autoimmune and inflammatory disease (type 1 diabetes, anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis, systemic lupus erythematosus, idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis and dengue haemorrhagic fever). Thus, T-cell exhaustion plays a central role in determining outcome in autoimmune disease and targeted manipulation of this process could lead to new therapeutic opportunities.

Purpose of Review: Antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCAs) remain central to our current understanding of the pathogenesis of ANCA-associated vasculitis (AAV), and this review considers recent developments in the context of four key questions: are there targets for ANCA beyond myeloperoxidase (MPO) and proteinase 3 (PR3); are all ANCA pathogenic; how are ANCAs generated; and how do ANCA cause disease?, Recent Findings: B-cell epitope mapping raises the possibility that only a subset of ANCA may be pathogenic. Anti-lysosomal-associated membrane protein 2 autoantibodies have recently emerged as a novel form of ANCA and can be found in anti-MPO and anti-PR3 negative disease. These also provide recent evidence for molecular mimicry in the pathogenesis of AAV, but a definitive proof in human AAV remains elusive. Neutrophil extracellular traps may represent an important mechanism by which MPO and PR3 are taken up by dendritic cells for presentation to the adaptive immune system, and the role of the alternative pathway of complement in AAV has recently been emphasized, with therapeutic implications., Summary: Our current understanding of the pathogenesis of AAV not only reinforces the central role of neutrophils but also provides a sound rationale for B-cell and complement-directed therapies.

A small but increasing number of gene expression based biomarkers are becoming available for routine clinical use, principally in oncology and transplantation. These underscore the potential of gene expression arrays and RNA sequencing for biomarker development, but this potential has not yet been fully realized and most candidates do not progress beyond the initial report. The first part of this review examines the process of gene expression- based biomarker development, highlighting how systematic biases and confounding can significantly skew study outcomes. Adequate validation in an independent cohort remains the single best means of protecting against these concerns. The second part considers gene-expression based biomarkers in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and systemic vasculitis. The type 1 interferon inducible gene signature remains by far the most studied in autoimmune rheumatic disease. While initially presented as an objective, blood-based biomarker of active SLE, subsequent research has shown that it is not specific to SLE and that its association with disease activity is considerably more nuanced than first thought. Nonetheless, it is currently under evaluation in ongoing trials of anti-interferon therapy. Other candidate markers of note include a prognostic CD8+ T-cell gene signature validated in SLE and ANCA-associated vasculitis, and a disease activity biomarker for SLE derived from modules of tightly correlated genes.

Background: Although numerous investigations have compared gene expression microarray platforms, preprocessing methods and batch correction algorithms using constructed spike-in or dilution datasets, there remains a paucity of studies examining the properties of microarray data using diverse biological samples. Most microarray experiments seek to identify subtle differences between samples with variable background noise, a scenario poorly represented by constructed datasets. Thus, microarray users lack important information regarding the complexities introduced in real-world experimental settings. The recent development of a multiplexed, digital technology for nucleic acid measurement enables counting of individual RNA molecules without amplification and, for the first time, permits such a study., Results: Using a set of human leukocyte subset RNA samples, we compared previously acquired microarray expression values with RNA molecule counts determined by the nCounter Analysis System (NanoString Technologies) in selected genes. We found that gene measurements across samples correlated well between the two platforms, particularly for high-variance genes, while genes deemed unexpressed by the nCounter generally had both low expression and low variance on the microarray. Confirming previous findings from spike-in and dilution datasets, this "gold-standard" comparison demonstrated signal compression that varied dramatically by expression level and, to a lesser extent, by dataset. Most importantly, examination of three different cell types revealed that noise levels differed across tissues., Conclusions: Microarray measurements generally correlate with relative RNA molecule counts within optimal ranges but suffer from expression-dependent accuracy bias and precision that varies across datasets. We urge microarray users to consider expression-level effects in signal interpretation and to evaluate noise properties in each dataset independently.

The small-vessel vasculitides are a group of disorders characterised by variable patterns of small blood vessel inflammation producing a markedly heterogeneous clinical phenotype. While any vessel in any organ may be involved, distinct but often overlapping sets of clinical features have allowed the description of three subtypes associated with the presence of circulating anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibodies (ANCA), namely granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA, formerly known as Wegener's Granulomatosis), microscopic polyangiitis (MPA) and eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (eGPA, formerly known as Churg-Strauss syndrome). Together, these conditions are called the ANCA-associated vasculitidies (AAV). Both formal nomenclature and classification criteria for the syndromes have changed repeatedly since their description over 100 years ago and may conceivably do so again following recent reports showing distinct genetic associations of patients with detectable ANCA of distinct specificities. ANCA are not only useful in classifying the syndromes but substantial evidence implicates them in driving disease pathogenesis although the mechanism by which they develop and tolerance is broken remains controversial. Advances in our understanding of the pathogenesis of the syndromes have been accompanied by some progress in treatment, although much remains to be done to improve the chronic morbidity associated with the immunosuppression required for disease control.

Diagnosis of the autoimmune disease type 1 diabetes (T1D) is preceded by the appearance of circulating autoantibodies to pancreatic islets. However, almost nothing is known about events leading to this islet autoimmunity. Previous epidemiological and genetic data have associated viral infections and antiviral type I interferon (IFN) immune response genes with T1D. Here, we first used DNA microarray analysis to identify IFN-β-inducible genes in vitro and then used this set of genes to define an IFN-inducible transcriptional signature in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from a group of active systemic lupus erythematosus patients (n = 25). Using this predefined set of 225 IFN signature genes, we investigated the expression of the signature in cohorts of healthy controls (n = 87), patients with T1D (n = 64), and a large longitudinal birth cohort of children genetically predisposed to T1D (n = 109; 454 microarrayed samples). Expression of the IFN signature was increased in genetically predisposed children before the development of autoantibodies (P = 0.0012) but not in patients with established T1D. Upregulation of IFN-inducible genes was transient, temporally associated with a recent history of upper respiratory tract infections (P = 0.0064), and marked by increased expression of SIGLEC-1 (CD169), a lectin-like receptor expressed on CD14(+) monocytes. DNA variation in IFN-inducible genes altered T1D risk (P = 0.007), as exemplified by IFIH1, one of the genes in our IFN signature for which increased expression is a known risk factor for disease. These findings identify transient increased expression of type I IFN genes in preclinical diabetes as a risk factor for autoimmunity in children with a genetic predisposition to T1D., (© 2014 by the American Diabetes Association.)

The endothelial cell has a remarkable ability for sub-specialisation, adapted to the needs of a variety of vascular beds. The role of developmental programming versus the tissue contextual environment for this specialization is not well understood. Here we describe a hierarchy of expression of HOX genes associated with endothelial cell origin and location. In initial microarray studies, differential gene expression was examined in two endothelial cell lines: blood derived outgrowth endothelial cells (BOECs) and pulmonary artery endothelial cells. This suggested shared and differential patterns of HOX gene expression between the two endothelial lines. For example, this included a cluster on chromosome 2 of HOXD1, HOXD3, HOXD4, HOXD8 and HOXD9 that was expressed at a higher level in BOECs. Quantative PCR confirmed the higher expression of these HOXs in BOECs, a pattern that was shared by a variety of microvascular endothelial cell lines. Subsequently, we analysed publically available microarrays from a variety of adult cell and tissue types using the whole "HOX transcriptome" of all 39 HOX genes. Using hierarchical clustering analysis the HOX transcriptome was able to discriminate endothelial cells from 61 diverse human cell lines of various origins. In a separate publically available microarray dataset of 53 human endothelial cell lines, the HOX transcriptome additionally organized endothelial cells related to their organ or tissue of origin. Human tissue staining for HOXD8 and HOXD9 confirmed endothelial expression and also supported increased microvascular expression of these HOXs. Together these observations suggest a significant involvement of HOX genes in endothelial cell positional identity.

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disorder characterized by broad clinical manifestations including cardiovascular and renal complications with periodic disease flares and significant morbidity and mortality. One of the main contributing factors to the pathology of SLE is the accumulation and impaired clearance of immune complexes of which the principle components are host auto-antigens and antibodies. The contribution of host lipids to the formation of these autoimmune complexes remains poorly defined. The aim of the present study was to identify and analyze candidate lipid autoantigens and their corresponding anti-lipid antibody responses in a well-defined SLE patient cohort using a combination of immunological and biophysical techniques. Disease monitoring in the SLE cohort was undertaken with serial British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) scoring. Correlations between specific lipid/anti-lipid responses were investigated as disease activity developed from active flares to quiescent during a follow up period. We report a significant negative correlation between anti-lipid antibodies for 24S-hydroxycholesterol, cardiolipin and phosphatidylserine with SLE disease activity. Taken together, these data suggest that lipid autoantigens represent a new family of biomarkers that can be employed to monitor disease activity plus the efficacy of therapeutic intervention in SLE.

The involvement of autoantibodies to human lysosome-associated membrane protein-2 (hLAMP-2) in anti-neutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis is controversial because of the absence of confirmatory data subsequent to the initial reports of their high prevalence in this disease. We characterized three assays for anti-hLAMP-2 antibodies: ELISA and Western blotting assays using unglycosylated recombinant hLAMP-2 expressed in Escherichia coli, and an indirect immunofluorescence assay using stably transfected ldlD cells that expressed glycosylated full-length hLAMP-2 on the plasma membrane. The assays detected autoantibodies to hLAMP-2 in human sera reproducibly and with comparable sensitivity and the assays gave the same results in 80.5% of the test panel of 40 selected positive and negative sera. In untreated patients at presentation, the frequencies of autoantibodies to LAMP-2 were 89%, 91%, and 80%, respectively, among three groups of patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis from Vienna, Austria (n=19); Groningen, the Netherlands (n=50) and Cambridge, United Kingdom (n=53). Prevalence of LAMP-2 autoantibodies was similar in both those with myeloperoxidase-ANCA and proteinase 3-ANCA. Furthermore, we detected LAMP-2 autoantibodies in two ANCA-negative patients. LAMP-2 autoantibodies rapidly became undetectable after the initiation of immunosuppressive treatment and frequently became detectable again during clinical relapse. We conclude that when robust assays are used, circulating autoantibodies to hLAMP-2 can be detected in most European patients with ANCA-associated vasculitis. Large-scale prospective studies are now needed to determine whether they are pathogenic or merely an epiphenomenon.

Crohn disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are increasingly common, chronic forms of inflammatory bowel disease. The behavior of these diseases varies unpredictably among patients. Identification of reliable prognostic biomarkers would enable treatment to be personalized so that patients destined to experience aggressive disease could receive appropriately potent therapies from diagnosis, while those who will experience more indolent disease are not exposed to the risks and side effects of unnecessary immunosuppression. Using transcriptional profiling of circulating T cells isolated from patients with CD and UC, we identified analogous CD8+ T cell transcriptional signatures that divided patients into 2 otherwise indistinguishable subgroups. In both UC and CD, patients in these subgroups subsequently experienced very different disease courses. A substantially higher incidence of frequently relapsing disease was experienced by those patients in the subgroup defined by elevated expression of genes involved in antigen-dependent T cell responses, including signaling initiated by both IL-7 and TCR ligation - pathways previously associated with prognosis in unrelated autoimmune diseases. No equivalent correlation was observed with CD4+ T cell gene expression. This suggests that the course of otherwise distinct autoimmune and inflammatory conditions may be influenced by common pathways and identifies what we believe to be the first biomarker that can predict prognosis in both UC and CD from diagnosis, a major step toward personalized therapy.

Objective: To optimise a strategy for identifying gene expression signatures differentiating systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis that provide insight into disease pathogenesis and identify biomarkers., Methods: 44 vasculitis patients, 13 SLE patients and 25 age and sex-matched controls were enrolled. CD4 and CD8 T cells, B cells, monocytes and neutrophils were isolated from each patient and, together with unseparated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), were hybridised to spotted oligonucleotide microarrays., Results: Using expression data obtained from purified cells a substantial number of differentially expressed genes were identified that were not detectable in the analysis of PBMC. Analysis of purified T cells identified a SLE-associated, CD4 T-cell signature consistent with type 1 interferon signalling driving the generation and survival of tissue homing T cells and thereby contributing to disease pathogenesis. Moreover, hierarchical clustering using expression data from purified monocytes provided significantly improved discrimination between the patient groups than that obtained using PBMC data, presumably because the differentially expressed genes reflect genuine differences in processes underlying disease pathogenesis., Conclusion: Analysis of leucocyte subsets enabled the identification of gene signatures of both pathogenic relevance and with better disease discrimination than those identified in PBMC. This approach thus provides substantial advantages in the search for diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers in autoimmune disease.

Autoimmune diseases are common and debilitating, but their severe manifestations could be reduced if biomarkers were available to allow individual tailoring of potentially toxic immunosuppressive therapy. Gene expression-based biomarkers facilitating such tailoring of chemotherapy in cancer, but not autoimmunity, have been identified and translated into clinical practice. We show that transcriptional profiling of purified CD8(+) T cells, which avoids the confounding influences of unseparated cells, identifies two distinct subject subgroups predicting long-term prognosis in two autoimmune diseases, antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA)-associated vasculitis (AAV), a chronic, severe disease characterized by inflammation of medium-sized and small blood vessels, and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), characterized by autoantibodies, immune complex deposition and diverse clinical manifestations ranging from glomerulonephritis to neurological dysfunction. We show that the subset of genes defining the poor prognostic group is enriched for genes involved in the interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R) pathway and T cell receptor (TCR) signaling and those expressed by memory T cells. Furthermore, the poor prognostic group is associated with an expanded CD8(+) T cell memory population. These subgroups, which are also found in the normal population and can be identified by measuring expression of only three genes, raise the prospect of individualized therapy and suggest new potential therapeutic targets in autoimmunity.

Background: Acute allograft rejection remains an important cause of morbidity after kidney transplantation, and has been shown to be a crucial determinant of long-term graft function. Although rejection is mediated by recipient lymphocytes, both donor and recipient factors contribute to the local environment that influences the nature, severity, and duration of the rejection response. Cytokines are a major determinant of this milieu, and this study sought to explore the impact of donor cytokine and cytokine receptor gene polymorphisms on acute rejection after renal transplantation., Methods: A total of 145 cadaveric renal allograft donors were selected for analysis according to the presence or absence of graft rejection in the first 30 days after transplantation. DNA was genotyped for 20 polymorphisms in 11 cytokine and cytokine receptor genes using the polymerase chain reaction with sequence specific primers. Associations were assessed using contingency table analysis and the chi2 test, using a two-set design., Results: A polymorphism at position -174 of the donor IL-6 gene was associated with the incidence (P=0.0002) and severity (P=0.000007) of recipient acute rejection. This finding was independent of HLA-DR matching. Acute rejection was not influenced by recipient IL-6 genotype, or by donor-recipient matching of IL-6 genotype., Conclusion: This study identifies donor IL-6 genotype as a major genetic risk factor for the development of acute rejection after renal transplantation. This provides evidence that donor-derived cytokines play a major role in determining outcome after transplantation, and will contribute to the development of therapeutic algorithms to predict individuals at particularly high risk of acute rejection.

Central dopaminergic reward pathways give rise to dependence and are activated by nicotine. Allelic variants in genes involved in dopamine metabolism may therefore influence the amount of tobacco consumed by smokers. We developed assays for polymorphisms in dopamine beta-hydroxylase (DBH), monoamine oxidase (MAO) and catechol O-methyl transferase (COMT) using the polymerase chain reaction with sequence specific primers (PCR-SSP). We then typed 225 cigarette smokers to assess whether genotype was related to the number of cigarettes smoked a day. Smokers with DBH 1368 GG genotype smoked fewer cigarettes than those with GA/AA [mean difference -2.9 cigarettes, 95% confidence interval (CI) -5.5, -0.4; P = 0.022]. The effect reached statistical significance in women (-3.8, 95% CI -6.4, -1.0, P = 0.007) but not in men (-1.5, 95% CI -6.0, 3.0, P = 0.498). Overall, the effect was greater when analysis was confined to Caucasians (-3.8, 95% CI -6.6, -1.1, P = 0.007). Smokers with MAO-A 1460 TT/TO smoked more cigarettes than those with CC/CT/CO (2.9, 95% CI 0.6, 5.1, P = 0.013). Within each sex group, the trend was similar but not statistically significant (difference for men 2.9, 95% CI -1.0, 6.7; for women 2.0, 95% CI -0.7, 4.8). The effect of the allele was greater in smokers with a high body mass index (> 26) (difference 5.1, 95% CI 1.4, 8.8, P = 0.008). More heavy smokers (> 20 a day) had the DBH 1368A allele when compared to light smokers (< 10 a day). (Relative risk 2.3, 95% CI 1.1, 5.0, P = 0.024.) The trend for increasing prevalence of the DBH A allele in heavy smokers was greater when analysis was restricted to Caucasians (relative risk 3.2, 95% CI 1.3, 8.2, P = 0.004). Conversely, heavy smokers were less likely to have the MAO-A 1460C allele (relative risk 0.3, 95% CI 0.1, 0.7, P = 0.012). Variations in DBH and MAO predict whether a person is a heavy smoker and how many cigarettes they consume. Our results support the view that these enzymes help to determine a smoker's requirement for nicotine and may explain why some people are predisposed to tobacco addiction and why some find it very difficult to stop smoking. This finding has important implications for smoking prevention and offers potential for developing patient-specific therapy for smoking cessation.