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Growing expectations are being placed on green hydrogen-based steel for decarbonising the global steel industry. However, the scale of the expected demand is dispersed across numerous case studies, resulting in a fragmented picture. This study examines 28 existing scenarios to provide a cohesive view of future global demand. In the short term, the demand for green hydrogen-based steel is expected to be limited, constituting 2% of current total steel production by 2030. However, a transformation phase is expected around 2040, marked by accelerated growth. By 2050, global demand is projected to reach 660 Mt (with an interquartile range of 368–1000 Mt), equivalent to 35% (19%–53%) of current total steel production. To meet such growing demand, green hydrogen supply and electrolyser capacity will need to increase to more than 1000 times current levels by 2050. These trends highlight both short-term limitations and long-term potential. Decarbonisation efforts will therefore require immediate emission reductions with already scalable options, while simultaneously building the enabling infrastructure for green hydrogen-based steelmaking to ensure long-term impacts. [Display omitted] • Analysis of 28 scenarios provides an integrated view of global green steel demand. • Short-term demand is expected to be limited, with an estimate of ∼35 Mt by 2030. • Long-term prospects indicate significant growth, potentially reaching ∼660 Mt by 2050. • Significant scale-up of green hydrogen supply and electrolyser capacity is required. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the price risk of the Belize–Mexico interconnection using ARMA-ARCH models to assess electricity pricing volatility and autoregression to determine the influence of conditional volatilities and import consumption. The findings revealed that the volatility of both markets, especially spot price, showed rare high-impact shocks and prolonged periods of volatile clusters. Volatile pricing tendencies, and forward pricing to a lesser extent, had positive effects on premiums. Premiums were largely dependent on pricing properties and system conditions of the supplier's (Mexico) side, with negligible influence from the buyer's (Belize) side. However, significant effects were found during certain hours with the buyer's loading and transmission loss patterns. Practical implications revealed the possibility of occasional losses caused mostly by information delays and misalignment of risk factors and premiums, which could affect Belize's power cost affordability and scheduling of local generation. Further research can broaden this current scope to enhance planning on local power supply by integrating current findings on the importation market behavior with the buyer's local power expansion plan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

International scholarship and policy advice is gaining interest in understanding what a just transition means for communities, the lived environment and sense of place. At the same time, Japan is facing increasing pressure to accelerate its progress towards decarbonisation, which has implications for regions within Japan that rely on carbonintensive industries for employment and economic sustainability. Previous experience within Japan of the phase-out of domestical coal extraction, and the impacts of this historical transition on host communities, has the potential to yield rich insights into how the social and cultural implications of a just transition can be managed both in Japan and globally. However, much of the existing place-based scholarship in this field has been undertaken in Japanese, and has not been published in English. The purpose of this viewpoint is therefore to summarise recent academic and policy research into a just transition in Japan, and draw insights from three former coal producing regions that have been impacted by coal phase-out in different ways: Tagawa in Kyushu, Iwaki in north-east Japan, and Yubari in Hokkaido. Our synthesis draws out several factors from the Japanese cases that contribute to "successful" just transitions at the local level: early and comprehensive planning and cooperation between different sectors; the need for leadership and vision from the local level rather than reliance on central government financial support for a transition; and the importance of social protection measures in avoiding stigma and sustaining a sense of community identity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]