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Abstract Coral reefs offer natural coastal protection by attenuating incoming waves. Here we combine unique coral disturbance-recovery observations with hydrodynamic models to quantify how structural complexity dissipates incoming wave energy. We find that if the structural complexity of healthy coral reefs conditions is halved, extreme wave run-up heights that occur once in a 100-years will become 50 times more frequent, threatening reef-backed coastal communities with increased waves, erosion, and flooding.

Over the last two decades, coral reefs have experienced dire declines due to intensifying anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Defining and quantifying coral reef resilience now represents a critical management objective, but there is still little consensus on the approach and the indices to be used. In this study, we develop a multi-factor reef recovery index based on the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) method to assess the vulnerability of several insular coral reefs in the South Western Indian Ocean (SWIO) from 2016 to 2018. We showed, that in the wake of a regional bleaching event in 2016, the most isolated reefs of Europa, which is characterized by low direct human impact had the highest recovery potential. On the contrary, islands that are more prone to direct human influence (i.e., La Reunion and Rodrigues) displayed the lowest recovery potential.

Amidst global environmental changes, predicting species' responses to future environments is a critical challenge for preserving biodiversity and associated human benefits. We explored the original idea that coral competitive performances, the ability of corals to preempt ecological space on the reef through territorial warfare, serve as indicators of species’ ecological niches and environmental windows, and therefore, responses to future environments. Our surveys indicated that coral performances varied with taxonomic identity, size and position along environmental gradients, highlighting complex interplays between life-history, warfare-strategy and niche segregation. Our results forewarn that growing alterations of coastal environments may trigger shifts in coral dominance, with the decline of major reef-building taxa like acroporids, and emphasize the importance of limiting human impacts for coastal resilience. Our empirical approach untangles the complexity of species' battle-like interactions and can help identify winners and losers in various communities caught in the interplay between ecological niches, environmental windows and global changes.

Recurring outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS) severely damage healthy corals, especially in the Western Pacific Ocean. To obtain a better understanding of population genetics of COTS and historical colonization across the Pacific Ocean, complete mitochondrial genomes were sequenced from 243 individuals collected in 11 reef regions. Our results indicate that Pacific COTS (Acanthaster cf. solaris) comprise two major clades, an East-Central Pacific (ECP) clade and a Pan-Pacific (PP) clade, separation of which was supported by high bootstrap value. The ECP clade consists of COTS from French Polynesia, Fiji, Vanuatu and the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). The Hawaii population is unique within this clade, while California COTS are included in EPC clade. On the other hand, the PP clade comprises multiple lineages that contain COTS from Vietnam, the Philippines, Japan, Papua New Guinea, Micronesia, the Marshall Islands, GBR, Vanuatu, Fiji and French Polynesia. For example, a lineage of the PP clade, which has the largest geographic distribution, includes COTS from all of these locations. These results suggest two alternative histories of current geographic distributions of COTS in the Pacific Ocean, an ECP clade ancestry or Western Pacific clade ancestry. Although further questions remain to be explored, this discovery provides an evolutionary context for the interpretation of COTS population structure which will aid future coral reef research in the Pacific Ocean, and ultimately improve reef management of COTS.

Randomised controlled experiments are the gold standard for scientific inference, but environmental and social scientists often rely on different study designs. Here the authors analyse the use of six common study designs in the fields of biodiversity conservation and social intervention, and quantify the biases in their estimates.

Abstract Maintaining key functions of coral reefs is vital for the persistence of these ecosystems as well as for securing the goods and services that they provide in the Anthropocene. Underwater photogrammetry by Structure from Motion (SfM) allows the quantification of novel habitat descriptors that may be particularly relevant in assessing key reefscape traits, that is, physical and ecological characteristics of coral reef habitats. Here, we combined this new technology with fish surveys to explore how reefscape traits shape the functional structure of reef fish assemblages around three environmentally contrasted islands of the Indo‐Pacific (Europa Island, Reunion Island, and New Caledonia). At 24 sites, habitat descriptors were computed from digital elevation models (DEM) and orthomosaics, while reef fish assemblages were assessed by visual census and video footage. Four habitat descriptors were marginally correlated and presented low variance inflation factor (VIF) values, thus being the most complementary descriptors: surface complexity, total shelter capacity, Shannon Shelter Index, and total coral cover. Linear mixed models (LMM) were used to explore the relationships between these habitat descriptors and four key fish functional entities: prey, planktivores, grazers, and predators. For each model, the variance explained (i.e., marginal R2) was significantly higher when considering multiple predictors, including the novel three‐dimensional descriptors (i.e., total shelter capacity and Shannon Shelter Index). The habitat descriptors quantified from underwater photogrammetry outputs (i.e., DEM and orthomosaics) provide easily available data to assess key reefscape traits and predict fish assemblage structure in coral reef ecosystems. This trait‐based functional approach allows consistent assessment of the links between these descriptors from local to regional scales. Considering the global coral reef crisis and the increasing availability of world‐reef photogrammetric surveys, this new technology should be key to bringing solutions to 21st‐century conservation issues.

Madagascar is a major hotspot of biodiversity in the Western Indian Ocean, but, as in many other regions, coral reefs surrounding the island confront large-scale disturbances and human-induced local stressors. Conservation actions have been implemented with encouraging results for fisheries, though their benefit on coral assemblages has never been rigorously addressed. In this context, we analyzed the multiscale spatial variation of the composition, generic richness, abundance, life history strategies, and cover of coral assemblages among 18 stations placed at three regions around the island. The potential influences of marine protected areas (MPAs), algal cover, substrate rugosity, herbivorous fish biomass, and geographic location were also analyzed. Our results highlight the marked spatial variability, with variation at either or both regional and local scales for all coral descriptors. The northeast coastal region of Masoala was characterized by the high abundance of coral colonies, most notably of the competitive Acropora and Pocillopora genera and stress-tolerant taxa at several stations. The southwest station of Salary Nord was distinguished by lower abundances, with depauperate populations of competitive taxa. On the northwest coast, Nosy-Be was characterized by higher diversity and abundance as well as by high coral cover (~42–70%) recorded at unfished stations. Results clearly underline the positive effects of MPAs on all but one of the coral descriptors, particularly at Nosy-Be where the highest contrast between fished and unfished stations was observed. Biomass of herbivorous fishes, crustose coralline algae cover, and substrate rugosity were also positively related to several coral descriptors. The occurrence of reefs with high diversity, abundance, and cover of corals, including the competitive Acropora, is a major finding of this study. Our results strongly support the implementation of locally managed marine areas with strong involvement by primary users, particularly to assist in management in countries with reduced logistic and human resources such as Madagascar.

The choice of ecological monitoring methods and descriptors determines the effectiveness of a program designed to assess the state of coral reef ecosystems. Here, we comparer the relative performance of the traditional Line Intercept Transect (LIT) method with three methods derived from underwater photogrammetry: LIT on orthomosaics, photoquadrats from orthomosaics, and surface analyses on orthomosaics. The data were acquired at Reunion Island on five outer reef slopes and two coral communities on underwater lava-flows. Coral cover was estimated in situ using the LIT method and with LITs and photoquadrats digitized on orthomosaic. Surface analyses were done on the same orthomosaics. Structural complexity of the surveyed sites was calculated from digital elevation models using three physical descriptors (fractal dimension, slope, surface complexity), and used to explore their possible influence in coral cover estimates. We also compared the methods in terms of scientific outputs, the human expertise and time required. Coral cover estimates obtained with in situ LITs were higher than those obtained with digitized LITs and photoquadrats. Surfaces analyses on orthomosaics yielded the lowest but most the precise cover estimates (i.e., lowest sample dispersion). Sites with the highest coral cover also had the highest structural complexity. Finally, when we added scientific outputs, and requirements for human expertise and time to our comparisons between methods, we found that surface analysis on the orthomosaics was the most efficient method. Photoquadrats were more time-consuming than both in situ and digitized LITs, even though they provided coral cover estimates similar to those of digitized LITs and yielded more than one descriptor. The LIT in situ method remains the least time-consuming and most effective for species-level taxonomic identifications but is the most limited method in terms of data outputs and representativeness of the ecosystem.

Structural complexity plays a key role in the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. Reef-building corals are major contributors to this complexity, providing shelter and food for numerous invertebrates and fish species. Both structural complexity and shelter capacity of reefscapes are determined by several components such as spurs and grooves, slope, caves and holes, vegetation and coral colonies. Quantifying the shelter capacity from coral colonies to reefscapes is a fundamental step to estimating ecosystem potential to support biodiversity. Here, we applied underwater photogrammetry to quantify shelter volumes provided by individual coral colonies. Overall, 120 3D models of coral colonies from branching, massive, columnar and tabular growth forms were studied. Three reefscapes were also 3D modeled. The study encompasses three Indo-Pacific Islands: Reunion, Europa and New Caledonia. At the colony level, measurements of diameter, planar area, surface and shelter volume were computed. At the reefscape, the diameter and planar area of each colony were extracted from orthomosaics and then used to estimate shelter capacity. Linear models had high accuracy for predicting shelter volume (a 3D metric) from 2D metrics: the diameter= 83.1%, R2= 0.95; the planar area= 87.5%, R2= 0.95 and the colony surface= 87.3%, R2= 0.96. The surface complexity and the shelter volume of the colonies allowed inferring the size of shelters provided by coral growth forms. Quantitative descriptors (i.e. relative percentage of shelter by growth form, the abundance of coral colonies, “Shannon-Shelter Index”) revealed reefscape-scale shelter differences.Our major finding is that planar area and diameter of coral colonies are satisfactory proxies for estimating shelter volume. These new proxies allow 2D metrics to quantify 3D shelter provision, which can support scientists and managers in conservation actions since such metrics are widely used in monitoring programs. Future investigations on the relationships between shelter provision and reef biodiversity will improve the understanding of these complex ecosystems.

Abstract Background Although the term holobiont has been popularized in corals with the advent of the hologenome theory of evolution, the underlying concepts are still a matter of debate. Indeed, the relative contribution of host and environment and especially thermal regime in shaping the microbial communities should be examined carefully to evaluate the potential role of symbionts for holobiont adaptation in the context of global changes. We used the sessile, long-lived, symbiotic and environmentally sensitive reef-building coral Pocillopora damicornis to address these issues. Results We sampled Pocillopora damicornis colonies corresponding to two different mitochondrial lineages in different geographic areas displaying different thermal regimes: Djibouti, French Polynesia, New Caledonia, and Taiwan. The community composition of bacteria and the algal endosymbiont Symbiodinium were characterized using high-throughput sequencing of 16S rRNA gene and internal transcribed spacer, ITS2, respectively. Bacterial microbiota was very diverse with high prevalence of Endozoicomonas, Arcobacter, and Acinetobacter in all samples. While Symbiodinium sub-clade C1 was dominant in Taiwan and New Caledonia, D1 was dominant in Djibouti and French Polynesia. Moreover, we also identified a high background diversity (i.e., with proportions

The Great Reef of Toliara, on the southwestern coast of Madagascar, has been documented as harbouring flourishing reef communities in the 1960s, but has since been affected by various threats, causing a coral decline last reported in 2008. In 2017, we examined the spatial heterogeneity in coral community structure in the region of Toliara. Coral assemblages were characterized by a marked spatial variability, with significant variation for most of the descriptors among the three major habitats and also among stations within habitats. We recorded high coral cover, with values >40% at six of the 10 stations, which was associated with high abundance of coral colonies. We also documented the return to an Acropora-dominated coral assemblage. While these positive results suggest a recent return to healthier coral assemblages, they must be tempered, as the diversity that we recorded was lower than in the 1960s. Moreover, we found a high cover of algae at several stations, suggesting that the ecosystem is likely close to the tipping point toward a phase shift. Finally, the population size-structure of major coral taxa was positively skewed, with few large colonies to ensure the replenishment of local populations. The marked spatial variation suggests that marine protected areas should integrate a sufficiently large area to capture the scale of this spatial heterogeneity.

Coral recruitment refers to the processes allowing maintenance and renewal of coral communities. Recruitment success is therefore indispensable for coral reef recovery after disturbances. Recruitment processes are governed by a variety of factors occurring at all spatial and temporal scales, from centimetres to hundreds of kilometres. In the present context of rising disturbances, it is thus of major importance to better understand the relative importance of different scales in this variation, and when possible, the factors associated with these scales. Multiscale spatio-temporal variability of scleractinian coral recruitment was investigated at two of the Mascarene Islands: Reunion and Rodrigues. Recruitment rates and taxonomic composition were examined during three consecutive six-month periods from regional to micro-local scales (i.e. from hundreds of kilometres to few centimetres) and between two protection levels (no-take zones and general protection zones). Very low recruitment rates were observed. Rodrigues displayed lower recruitment rates than Reunion. Recruit assemblage was dominated by Pocilloporidae (77.9%), followed by Acroporidae (9.9%) and Poritidae (5.2%). No protection effect was identified on coral recruitment, despite differences in recruitment rates among sites within islands. Recruits were patchily distributed within sites but no aggregative effect was detected, i.e. the preferentially colonised tiles were not spatially grouped. Recruits settled mainly on the sides of the tiles, especially at Rodrigues, which could be attributed to the high concentration of suspended matter. The variability of recruitment patterns at various spatial scales emphasises the importance of micro- to macro-local variations of the environment in the dynamics and maintenance of coral populations. High temporal variability was also detected, between seasons and years, which may be related to the early 2016 bleaching event at Rodrigues. The low recruitment rates and the absence of protection effect raise questions about the potential for recovery from disturbances of coral reefs in the Mascarene Islands.

Despite increased attention over the last decade on Mesophotic Coral Ecosystems (MCEs) [...]

Clipperton Atoll, one of the most isolated coral reefs worldwide, is of great scientific interest due to its geomorphology and high levels of endemism. This study explored the reef fish assemblage structure of Clipperton Atoll and its relationship with live coral cover. Nine stations were sampled at three sites and three depths (6, 12 and 20 m) around the reef, measuring fish species richness and biomass and hermatypic coral cover (at genus level). We evaluated variation in species richness, biomass and diversity of fish assemblages among sites and depths, as well as the relationship between the entire fish assemblage composition and live coral cover. The results showed that species richness and biomass were similar among sites, but differed across depths, increasing with depth. In contrast, diversity differed among sites but not among depths. Multivariate analyses indicated that fish assemblage composition differed among sites and depths in relation to changes in cover of coral of the genera Pocillopora, Porites, Pavona and Leptoseris, which dominate at different depths. The results showed that fish species richness and diversity were low at Clipperton Atoll and that, in isolated coral reefs with a low habitat heterogeneity and low human disturbance, live coral cover has a significant influence on the spatial variation of the reef fish assemblages. This study highlights the importance of coral habitat structure in shaping coral reef fish assemblages.

Populations of marine organisms on coral reef islands (CRI) are connected in space and time by seawater that transports propagules of plants, animals, and algae. Yet, despite this reality, it is often assumed that routine replenishment of populations of marine organisms on CRI is supported by locally-sourced propagules (hereafter, larvae). Following large disturbances, however, distantly-sourced larvae from less disturbed CRI within a regional meta-population are likely to be important for local population recovery, but evaluating the roles of locally- vs. distantly-sourced larvae remains difficult. While larval sources are relatively well-known for some fishes, they remain virtually unknown for most taxa, particularly those associated with the benthos, as exemplified by scleractinian corals. This review focuses on reef recovery and larval connectivity. Using corals as examples, we argue that CRI can serve as natural laboratories in which studies of these issues can enhance understanding of coral reef community dynamics under future disturbance regimes. Rather than focusing on synthesizing empirical data, we focus on the capacity for CRI to realize their potential in this research area, concluding that progress is impeded by the limited breadth, detail, and spatio-temporal concordance of existing research. Using long-term observational programs of coral reefs in Mo'orea (French Polynesia), Okinawa (Japan), and St. John (US Virgin Islands) as examples of the data currently available, we make the case that new modes of multidisciplinary and collaborative research will be required to exploit the value of CRI in understanding the role of connectivity in mediating ecosystem resilience in a future affected by anthropogenic disturbances.

Previous observations suggested that microbial communities contribute to coral health and the ecological resilience of coral reefs. However, most studies of coral microbiology focused on prokaryotes and the endosymbiotic algae Symbiodinium. In contrast, knowledge concerning diversity of other protists is still lacking, possibly due to methodological constraints. As most eukaryotic DNA in coral samples was derived from hosts, protist diversity was missed in metagenome analyses. To tackle this issue, we designed blocking primers for Scleractinia sequences amplified with two primer sets that targeted variable loops of the 18S rRNA gene (18SV1V2 and 18SV4). These blocking primers were used on environmental colonies of Pocillopora damicornis sensu lato from two regions with contrasting thermal regimes (Djibouti and New Caledonia). In addition to Symbiodinium clades A/C/D, Licnophora and unidentified coccidia genera were found in many samples. In particular, coccidian sequences formed a robust monophyletic clade with other protists identified in Agaricia, Favia, Montastraea, Mycetophyllia, Porites, and Siderastrea coral colonies. Moreover, Licnophora and coccidians had different distributions between the two geographic regions. A similar pattern was observed between Symbiodinium clades C and A/D. Although we were unable to identify factors responsible for this pattern, nor were we able to confirm that these taxa were closely associated with corals, we believe that these primer sets and the associated blocking primers offer new possibilities to describe the hidden diversity of protists within different coral species.

Outbreaks of predatory crown-of-thorns seastars (COTS) can devastate coral reef ecosystems, yet some corals possess mutualistic guardian crabs that defend against COTS attacks. However, guarded corals do not always survive COTS outbreaks, with the ecological mechanisms sealing the fate of these corals during COTS infestations remaining unknown. In August 2008 in Moorea (17.539° S, 149.830° W), French Polynesia, an unusually dense multi-species aggregation of predators was observed feeding upon guarded corals following widespread coral decline due to COTS predation. Concurrent assaults from these amplified, mixed-species predator guilds likely overwhelm mutualistic crab defense, ultimately leading to the fall of guarded corals. Our observations indicate that guarded corals can sustain devastating COTS attacks for an extended duration, but eventually concede to intensifying assaults from diverse predators that aggregate in high numbers as alternative prey decays. The fall of guarded corals is therefore suggested to be ultimately driven by an indirect trophic cascade that leads to amplified attacks from diverse starving predators following prey decline, rather than COTS assaults alone.

Outbreaks of predatory crown-of-thorns seastars (COTS) can devastate coral reef ecosystems, yet some corals possess mutualistic guardian crabs that defend against COTS attacks. However, guarded corals do not always survive COTS outbreaks, with the ecological mechanisms sealing the fate of these corals during COTS infestations remaining unknown. In August 2008 in Moorea (17.539° S, 149.830° W), French Polynesia, an unusually dense multi-species aggregation of predators was observed feeding upon guarded corals following widespread coral decline due to COTS predation. Concurrent assaults from these amplified, mixed-species predator guilds likely overwhelm mutualistic crab defense, ultimately leading to the fall of guarded corals. Our observations indicate that guarded corals can sustain devastating COTS attacks for an extended duration, but eventually concede to intensifying assaults from diverse predators that aggregate in high numbers as alternative prey decays. The fall of guarded corals is therefore suggested to be ultimately driven by an indirect trophic cascade that leads to amplified attacks from diverse starving predators following prey decline, rather than COTS assaults alone.

Outbreaks of the predator crown-of-thorns seastar (COTS) Acanthaster planci cause widespread coral mortality across the Indo-Pacific. Like many marine invertebrates, COTS is a nocturnal species whose cryptic behaviour during the day can affect its detectability, particularly in structurally complex reef habitats that provide many refuges for benthic creatures. We performed extensive day and night surveys of COTS populations in coral reef habitats showing differing levels of structural complexity and COTS abundance. We tested whether estimations of COTS density varied between day and night observations, and if the differences were related to changes in COTS abundance, reef structural complexity and the spatial scale of observation. Estimations of COTS density were on average 27% higher at night than during the day. Differences in COTS detection varied with changing seastar abundance but not reef structural complexity or scale of observation. Underestimation of COTS abundance in daytime was significant for a broad seastar density range, thus potentially affecting most outbreak events. Our study suggests that portions of COTS populations can be undetected during conventional surveys and control campaigns, which are exclusively conducted by day, and significantly affect the trajectory of coral reefs. Accounting for bias in COTS detection can strengthen coral reef management broadly.

Coral reef assemblages generally form gradients of spatial structures which are governed by a variety of interacting physical and biological processes that vary in intensity, frequency, and spatial scale. Assessing the structure of contemporary reef assemblages may help to understand future changes and to identify appropriate conservation actions. The spatial distribution and interannual variability (from 2006 to 2008) of coral assemblages were investigated at 10 stations in the southwestern lagoon of New Caledonia, and the strength of the cross-shelf gradient was evaluated. Coral cover, generic richness, and abundance of adult and juvenile assemblages were highly variable within and among the three major reef habitats (fringing, mid-shelf, and barrier reefs). Abundance increased with distance from shore, whereas generic richness and cover were not correlated with shelf position. Assemblage composition was generally related to habitat, even though some mid-shelf and fringing reef assemblages resembled those observed on other habitats. A significant correlation between juvenile and adult distributions was recorded, suggesting that adult assemblages are partly controlled by the short-term history of recruitment patterns. The interannual variation of coral assemblages was far less pronounced, with significant changes only detected at some mid-shelf and barrier reefs, for a few genera characterised by high turn-over.

Outbreaks of the corallivorous crown-of-thorns seastar Acanthaster planci (COTS) represent one of the greatest disturbances to coral reef ecosystems in the Indo-Pacific, affecting not only coral reefs but also the coastal communities which rely on their resources. While injection approaches are increasingly used in an attempt to control COTS densities, most of them display severe drawbacks including logistical challenges, high residual environmental impacts or low cost-effectiveness. We tested a new alternative control method based upon acidic injections of cheap, 100% natural products. We investigated the lethal doses, intra- and inter-specific disease transmission and immune responses of COTS when injected with fresh lime juice (extracted from local Citrus arantifolia) and white spirit vinegar. High COTS mortality was achieved with small volumes: 10-20 ml per seastar induced death in 89%/97% of injected specimens after an average 34.3 h/29.8 h for lime juice and vinegar respectively. Highest efficiency was reached for both solutions with double shots of (2 × 10 ml) in two different areas on the body: 100% mortality occurred within 12-24 h, which is similar or faster compared with other current injection methods. Multiple immune measures suggested that death was very likely caused by pH stress from the acidic solutions rather than a bacterial infection. Contagion to either conspecifics or a variety of other reef species was not observed, even at COTS densities 15 times higher than the highest naturally reported. 10 to 20 l lime juice/vinegar could kill up to a thousand COTS at a cost of less than 0.05 USD per specimen; no permits or special handling procedures are required. We conclude that injections of lime juice and vinegar offer great advantages when compared to current best practises and constitute a cheap and natural option for all reefs affected by COTS.

Global change and its associated temperature increase has directly or indirectly changed the distributions of hosts and pathogens, and has affected host immunity, pathogen virulence and growth rates. This has resulted in increased disease in natural plant and animal populations worldwide, including scleractinian corals. While the effects of temperature increase on immunity and pathogen virulence have been clearly identified, their interaction, synergy and relative weight during pathogenesis remain poorly documented. We investigated these phenomena in the interaction between the coral Pocillopora damicornis and the bacterium Vibrio coralliilyticus, for which the infection process is temperature-dependent. We developed an experimental model that enabled unraveling the effects of thermal stress, and virulence vs. non-virulence of the bacterium. The physiological impacts of various treatments were quantified at the transcriptome level using a combination of RNA sequencing and targeted approaches. The results showed that thermal stress triggered a general weakening of the coral, making it more prone to infection, non-virulent bacterium induced an 'efficient' immune response, whereas virulent bacterium caused immuno-suppression in its host.

The reduction in coral cover on many contemporary tropical reefs suggests a different set of coral community assemblages will dominate future reefs. To evaluate the capacity of reef corals to persist over various time scales, we examined coral community dynamics in contemporary, fossil, and simulated future coral reef ecosystems. Based on studies between 1987 and 2012 at two locations in the Caribbean, and between 1981 and 2013 at five locations in the Indo-Pacific, we show that many coral genera declined in abundance, some showed no change in abundance, and a few coral genera increased in abundance. Whether the abundance of a genus declined, increased, or was conserved, was independent of coral family. An analysis of fossil-reef communities in the Caribbean revealed changes in numerical dominance and relative abundances of coral genera, and demonstrated that neither dominance nor taxon was associated with persistence. As coral family was a poor predictor of performance on contemporary reefs, a trait-based, dynamic, multi-patch model was developed to explore the phenotypic basis of ecological performance in a warmer future. Sensitivity analyses revealed that upon exposure to thermal stress, thermal tolerance, growth rate, and longevity were the most important predictors of coral persistence. Together, our results underscore the high variation in the rates and direction of change in coral abundances on contemporary and fossil reefs. Given this variation, it remains possible that coral reefs will be populated by a subset of the present coral fauna in a future that is warmer than the recent past.

No-take marine reserves are one of the oldest and most versatile tools used across the Pacific for the conservation of reef resources, in particular for invertebrates traditionally targeted by local fishers. Assessing their actual efficiency is still a challenge in complex ecosystems such as coral reefs, where reserve effects are likely to be obscured by high levels of environmental variability. The goal of this study was to investigate the potential interference of small-scale habitat structure on the efficiency of reserves. The spatial distribution of widely harvested macroinvertebrates was surveyed in a large set of protected vs. unprotected stations from eleven reefs located in New Caledonia. Abundance, density and individual size data were collected along random, small-scale (20×1 m) transects. Fine habitat typology was derived with a quantitative photographic method using 17 local habitat variables. Marine reserves substantially augmented the local density, size structure and biomass of the target species. Density of Trochus niloticus and Tridacna maxima doubled globally inside the reserve network; average size was greater by 10 to 20% for T. niloticus. We demonstrated that the apparent success of protection could be obscured by marked variations in population structure occurring over short distances, resulting from small-scale heterogeneity in the reef habitat. The efficiency of reserves appeared to be modulated by the availability of suitable habitats at the decimetric scale ("microhabitats") for the considered sessile/low-mobile macroinvertebrate species. Incorporating microhabitat distribution could significantly enhance the efficiency of habitat surrogacy, a valuable approach in the case of conservation targets focusing on endangered or emblematic macroinvertebrate or relatively sedentary fish species.

Outbreaks of the coral-killing seastar Acanthaster planci are intense disturbances that can decimate coral reefs. These events consist of the emergence of large swarms of the predatory seastar that feed on reef-building corals, often leading to widespread devastation of coral populations. While cyclic occurrences of such outbreaks are reported from many tropical reefs throughout the Indo-Pacific, their causes are hotly debated, and the spatio-temporal dynamics of the outbreaks and impacts to reef communities remain unclear. Based on observations of a recent event around the island of Moorea, French Polynesia, we show that Acanthaster outbreaks are methodic, slow-paced, and diffusive biological disturbances. Acanthaster outbreaks on insular reef systems like Moorea's appear to originate from restricted areas confined to the ocean-exposed base of reefs. Elevated Acanthaster densities then progressively spread to adjacent and shallower locations by migrations of seastars in aggregative waves that eventually affect the entire reef system. The directional migration across reefs appears to be a search for prey as reef portions affected by dense seastar aggregations are rapidly depleted of living corals and subsequently left behind. Coral decline on impacted reefs occurs by the sequential consumption of species in the order of Acanthaster feeding preferences. Acanthaster outbreaks thus result in predictable alteration of the coral community structure. The outbreak we report here is among the most intense and devastating ever reported. Using a hierarchical, multi-scale approach, we also show how sessile benthic communities and resident coral-feeding fish assemblages were subsequently affected by the decline of corals. By elucidating the processes involved in an Acanthaster outbreak, our study contributes to comprehending this widespread disturbance and should thus benefit targeted management actions for coral reef ecosystems.