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Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) is a common seasonal respiratory virus and an important cause of illness among infants, but the burden of RSV disease is not well described among the older population. The objective of this study was to estimate the age-specific incidence of hospital admission among over 65s due to respiratory illnesses attributable to RSV in England to inform optimal vaccine and therapeutic interventions. We used linear multiple regression to examine the effect of changes in weekly counts of respiratory pathogens on the weekly counts of respiratory hospital admissions. The study population was all patients aged 65 years or over admitted to English hospitals between 2nd August 2010 and 30th July 2017. RSV was estimated to account for a seasonal annual average of 71 (95% CI 52-90) respiratory admissions per 100,000 in adults age 65-74 and 251 (95% CI 186-316) admissions per 100,000 adults age 75+. Pneumococcus was the pathogen responsible for highest annual average respiratory admission with 448 (95% CI 310-587) admissions per 100,000 adults age 65-74 and 1010 (95%CI 527-1493) admissions per 100,000 adults aged 75+. This study shows that RSV continues to exert a significant burden of disease among older adults in England. These findings will support development of policy for the use of RSV therapeutics and vaccines in this age group.

Current national estimates of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV)-associated hospital admissions are insufficiently detailed to determine optimal vaccination strategies for RSV. We employ novel methodology to estimate the burden of RSV-associated hospital admissions in infants in England, with detailed stratification by patient and clinical characteristics.We used linked, routinely collected laboratory and hospital data to identify laboratory-confirmed RSV-positive and RSV-negative respiratory hospital admissions in infants in England, then generate a predictive logistic regression model for RSV-associated admissions. We applied this model to all respiratory hospital admissions in infants in England, to estimate the national burden of RSV-associated admissions by calendar week, age in weeks and months, clinical risk group and birth month.We estimated an annual average of 20,359 (95% CI 19,236-22,028) RSV-associated admissions in infants in England from mid-2010 to mid-2012. These admissions accounted for 57,907 (95% CI 55,391-61,637) annual bed days. 55% of RSV-associated bed days and 45% of RSV-associated admissions were in infants3 months old. RSV-associated admissions peaked in infants aged 6 weeks, and those born September to November.We employed novel methodology using linked datasets to produce detailed estimates of RSV-associated admissions in infants. Our results provide essential baseline epidemiological data to inform future vaccine policy.

Background Infective endocarditis is an uncommon but serious infection, where evidence for giving antibiotic prophylaxis before invasive dental procedures is inconclusive. In England, antibiotic prophylaxis was offered routinely to patients at risk of infective endocarditis until March 2008, when new guidelines aimed at reducing unnecessary antibiotic use were issued. We investigated whether changes in infective endocarditis incidence could be detected using electronic health records, assessing the impact of inclusion criteria/statistical model choice on inferences about the timing/type of any change. Methods Using national data from Hospital Episode Statistics covering 1998–2017, we modelled trends in infective endocarditis incidence using three different sets of inclusion criteria plus a range of regression models, identifying the most likely date for a change in trends if evidence for one existed. We also modelled trends in the proportions of different organism groups identified during infection episodes, using secondary diagnosis codes and data from national laboratory records. Lastly, we applied non-parametric local smoothing to visually inspect any changes in trend around the guideline change date. Results Infective endocarditis incidence increased markedly over the study (22.2–41.3 per million population in 1998 to 42.0–67.7 in 2017 depending on inclusion criteria). The most likely dates for a change in incidence trends ranged from September 2001 (uncertainty interval August 2000–May 2003) to May 2015 (March 1999–January 2016), depending on inclusion criteria and statistical model used. For the proportion of infective endocarditis cases associated with streptococci, the most likely change points ranged from October 2008 (March 2006–April 2010) to August 2015 (September 2013–November 2015), with those associated with oral streptococci decreasing in proportion after the change point. Smoothed trends showed no notable changes in trend around the guideline date. Conclusions Infective endocarditis incidence has increased rapidly in England, though we did not detect any change in trends directly following the updated guidelines for antibiotic prophylaxis, either overall or in cases associated with oral streptococci. Estimates of when changes occurred were sensitive to inclusion criteria and statistical model choice, demonstrating the need for caution in interpreting single models when using large datasets. More research is needed to explore the factors behind this increase.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia causes hospitalization and high morbidity and mortality. We linked Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit (GBRU) data to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data set to study the trends and outcomes of NTS bacteremias in England between 2004 and 2015. All confirmed NTS isolates from blood from England submitted to GBRU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015 were deterministically linked to HES records. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR), proportions, and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to describe differences in age, sex, antibiotic resistance patterns, and serotypes over time. Males, neonates, and adults above 65 years were more likely to have NTS bacteremia (AOR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.46 to 1.67]; 2.57 [95% CI, 1.43 to 4.60]; and 3.56 [95% CI, 3.25 to 3.90], respectively). Proportions of bacteremia increased from 1.41% in 2004 to 2.67% in 2015. Thirty-four percent of all blood isolates were resistant to a first-line antibiotic, and 1,397 (56%) blood isolates were linked to an HES record. Of the patients with NTS bacteremia, 969 (69%) had a cardiovascular condition and 155 (12%) patients died, out of which 120 (77%) patients were age 65 years and above. NTS bacteremia mainly affects older people with comorbidities placing them at increased risk of prolonged hospital stay and death. Resistance of invasive NTS to first-line antimicrobial agents appeared to be stable in England, but the emergence of resistance to last-resort antibiotics, such as colistin, requires careful monitoring.

Nontyphoidal Salmonella (NTS) bacteremia causes hospitalization and high morbidity and mortality. We linked Gastrointestinal Bacteria Reference Unit (GBRU) data to the Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data set to study the trends and outcomes of NTS bacteremias in England between 2004 and 2015. All confirmed NTS isolates from blood from England submitted to GBRU between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2015 were deterministically linked to HES records. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR), proportions, and confidence intervals (CI) were calculated to describe differences in age, sex, antibiotic resistance patterns, and serotypes over time. Males, neonates, and adults above 65 years were more likely to have NTS bacteremia (AOR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.46 to 1.67]; 2.57 [95% CI, 1.43 to 4.60]; and 3.56 [95% CI, 3.25 to 3.90], respectively). Proportions of bacteremia increased from 1.41% in 2004 to 2.67% in 2015. Thirty-four percent of all blood isolates were resistant to a first-line antibiotic, and 1,397 (56%) blood isolates were linked to an HES record. Of the patients with NTS bacteremia, 969 (69%) had a cardiovascular condition and 155 (12%) patients died, out of which 120 (77%) patients were age 65 years and above. NTS bacteremia mainly affects older people with comorbidities placing them at increased risk of prolonged hospital stay and death. Resistance of invasive NTS to first-line antimicrobial agents appeared to be stable in England, but the emergence of resistance to last-resort antibiotics, such as colistin, requires careful monitoring.

ObjectivesThis study shows how to improve PRL when using a limited number of personal identifiable information (PIIs) available in HES such as NHS number, DOB, Hospital Number, Gender and Postcode. The focus is on new approaches in categorisation of m-u probabilities for fields related to Postcode. In addition, a brief outline of our procedure to generate an appropriate training dataset will be presented as well as reasons for splitting HES dataset into single and multi-admissions, and proposed techniques to avoid computational cost. ApproachPIIs such as DOB and Postcode can be categorised in order to increase the number of potential comparison vectors which is necessary in order to deal with the multi-million size of the HES dataset. We propose a multinomial approach for comparison between postcodes both for agreement and disagreement case scenarios, based on geographical information and a similarity score resulting from a Probit model. In the absence of a ‘gold-standard’ dataset, generating an appropriate training set is possible by combining two-way Deterministic Linkage (DL) and simple random sampling. Splitting HES into single and multi-admissions is recommended for reasons related to computational performance and demographic differences of the underlying population. Selection of the lower and upper thresholds regarding linkage weights can be done in a practical way by using conditional Normal mixture modelling, or more formally by using sampling techniques based on Fellegi-Sunter decision rule. We show how the latter can be further improved avoiding the computational cost by introducing appropriate mapping functions. ResultsWe show the advantages of PRL over DL between Surveillance Laboratory Flu Data and HES. Preliminary results indicate an additional 10% of matches for < 1% expected false positives. EM convergence problems when treating missing values as separate outcome category will be discussed comparing results with the suggested re-normalisation approach in the bibliography. ConclusionPRL between Laboratory Surveillance Data and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) is a common practice and performed in a number of epidemiological studies conducted at Public Health England (PHE). Therefore, improving linkage will subsequently benefit those studies. Furthermore, this study proposes new approaches for Postcode comparison, and the utilisation of mapping functions to avoid the computational cost of the Fellegi-Sunter decision rule. These approaches could be used in a wide range of applications. Finally, we suggest a structural way of handling the HES dataset in order to achieve high efficiency and robustness of linkage.

ObjectivesThis study aims to describe the burden of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in children

BACKGROUND: Hospital-acquired bloodstream infection (HA-BSI) requires immediate effective antibiotic treatment. However, there are no published national data for England that describe the pathogen profile and antibiotic resistance rates of HA-BSI in children. METHODS: Probabilistic matching methods were used to link national data on microbiologically confirmed BSI to hospital in-patient admissions data for the period of January 2009-March 2010. HA-BSI was defined as a positive blood culture drawn from a child aged 1 month-18 years 2 or more days after admission (and before discharge). RESULTS: A total of 8718 episodes of BSI was reported during the study period. Linkage allowed 82% of records to be matched, of which 23% (1734) were HA-BSI, giving a rate of 4.74 per 1000 admissions. The median age of infection was 1 year, and 54% of infections were in males. Methicillin resistance was seen in 83% and 17% of coagulase-negative staphylococci and Staphylococcus aureus, respectively. Penicillin resistance was rare in pyogenic streptococci but more common in viridans streptococci (39%). Among Gram-positive organisms, only 3% were vancomycin-resistant. The overall proportion of Gram-negative bacteria resistant to recommended empirical antibiotics (meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam) was 5% and 16%, respectively, but

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of hospital admission for lower respiratory tract infections in young children. Since virological testing is carried out in only a minority of admitted children, previous estimates of the hospital burden of RSV have relied on time-series modelling techniques. In this study we use a unique linked laboratory surveillance and hospital admission database to estimate the secondary care burden of RSV in children younger than 5 years in England. Methods National laboratory surveillance data was probabilistically linked to the Hospital Episode Statistics database for children younger than 5 years in England from Aug 1, 2010, to July 31, 2012, using National Health Service number, date of birth, post code, and sex. We used the linked data to estimate the probability of a respiratory hospital admission being RSV-related based on diagnostic coding and calendar week. Using these probabilities, we estimated the number of RSV-associated admissions by age and sex, and calculated admission rates using Office for National Statistics mid-year population estimates. Findings We analysed 4530 RSV-positive linked admissions and 7910 RSV-negative linked admissions. 4257 (94%) of 4530 RSV-positive admissions occurred between Nov 1 and March 31 each year. 3656 (81%) of 4530 RSV-positive admissions were in children younger than 1 year. 3139 (79%) of 4530 RSV-positive admissions had a primary diagnosis of bronchiolitis. Linked admissions had a longer length of stay than did unlinked admissions (median 3 days vs 1). We will present results on the total estimated number of RSV-associated admissions stratified by age, calendar week, and primary diagnosis. Preliminary analysis estimates a total annual average of about 33 500 RSV-associated admissions in children younger than 5 years, with nearly half of these admissions in children younger than 6 months. Interpretation Our study is the first, to our knowledge, to link laboratory and hospital data for RSV in England. Our results point to a likely testing bias towards younger children who are in hospital for longer. Our approach of estimating the national secondary care burden using probability weights from smaller, linked samples could be applied to other seasonal infections. With several RSV vaccines in clinical trials, our results can be used to populate cost-effectiveness models of alternative vaccination strategies. Funding RMR is funded by a Farr Institute of Health Informatics Research PhD studentship.