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The 1977 survey was funded and led by the Nature Conservancy Council. Surveys from 1980 to 2019 were funded by the Sullom Voe Association and led by the Shetland Oil Terminal Environmental Advisory Group (SOTEAG). Capsule: Numbers of moulting Common Eiders Somateria mollissima counted in Shetland during surveys from 1977 to 2019 decreased from approximately 14,500 to an estimated 3600 individuals, a 75% population decline. Aims: To report results of extensive surveys of Eiders across Shetland during the annual complete moult period, review historical surveys, and evaluate long-term population changes and the possible underlying causes for change. Methods: Extensive areas of coastal Shetland were surveyed for Eiders during the annual moult period from July to September, every one to five years from 1977 to 2019. Spatial sampling was variable between surveys from 1977 to 1993 but more systematic and standardised during all surveys from 1996 to 2019. Overall population change, changes in numbers of birds within areas categorised as either exposed or sheltered coast, and change in the proportion of adult males to females/juveniles were assessed. Results: Surveys from 1977 to 1993 indicated a 55% decrease, from approximately 14,500–6500 individuals, and surveys from 1996 to 2019 showed a 45% decrease, from an estimated 6700–3600 individuals, indicating an overall population decrease of approximately 75% from 1977 to 2019. From 1996 to 2019, Eider numbers decreased in areas of exposed coast by approximately 90% but increased by at least 70% in the more sparsely populated sheltered areas, and the overall proportion of adult males to females/juveniles reduced by one-third. Conclusion: From 1977 to 2019, a substantial decline of approximately 75% occurred in the Shetland Eider population at the time of moult. Shetland Eiders are not S. m. mollissima but morphologically and genetically akin to S. m. faeroeensis, the Faroese subspecies, the rarest subspecies worldwide, so this decline is of high conservation concern. Causes of the decline largely remain unknown, but ecological datasets on Shetland Eiders are few and detailed studies, including remote tracking of individuals’ movements throughout the year, would be worthwhile. Publisher PDF

The authors also thank funding sources: the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC; UK National Capability award number NE/R016429/1 as part of the UKSCaPE programme); Joint Nature Conservatio Committee (JNCC); Environment and Climate Change Canada; Natural Resources Canada; New Bedford Harbor Trustee Council; The Norwegian Environment Agency (and its predecessors), the SEAPOP programme (www.seapop.no) and its key institutions: The Norwegian Institute for Nature Research, The Norwegian Polar Institute and Tromsø University Museum and the French Polar Institute. 1. Timing of breeding, an important driver of fitness in many populations, is widely studied in the context of global change, yet despite considerable efforts to identify environmental drivers of seabird nesting phenology, for most populations we lack evidence of strong drivers. Here we adopt an alternative approach, examining the degree to which different populations positively covary in their annual phenology to infer whether phenological responses to environmental drivers are likely to be (i) shared across species at a range of spatial scales, (ii) shared across populations of a species, or (iii) idiosyncratic to populations. 2. We combined 51 long-term datasets on breeding phenology spanning 50 years from nine seabird species across 29 North Atlantic sites and examined the extent to which different populations share early versus late breeding seasons depending on a hierarchy of spatial scales comprising breeding site, small-scale region, large-scale region and the whole North Atlantic. 3. In about a third of cases we found laying dates of populations of different species sharing the same breeding site or small-scale breeding region were positively correlated, which is consistent with the hypothesis that they share phenological responses to the same environmental conditions. In comparison we found no evidence for positive phenological covariation among populations across species aggregated at larger spatial scales. 4. In general we found little evidence for positive phenological covariation between populations of a single species, and in many instances the inter-year variation specific to a population was substantial, consistent with each population responding idiosyncratically to local environmental conditions. Black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) was the exception, with populations exhibiting positive covariation in laying dates that decayed with the distance between breeding sites, suggesting that populations may be responding to a similar driver. 5. Our approach sheds light on the potential factors that may drive phenology in our study species, thus furthering our understanding of the scales at which different seabirds interact with interannual variation in their environment. We also identify additional systems and phenological questions to which our inferential approach could be applied. Postprint