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Abstract Background Bisphosphonates can reduce fracture risk in patients with osteoporosis, but many at-risk patients do not start or adhere to these medications. The aims of this study are to: (1) preliminarily evaluate the effect of an individualized 10-year osteoporotic fracture risk calculator and decision aid (OSTEOPOROSIS CHOICE) for postmenopausal women at risk for osteoporotic fractures; and (2) assess the feasibility and validity (i.e., absence of contamination) of patient-level randomization (vs. cluster randomization) in pilot trials of decision aid efficacy. Methods/Design This is a protocol for a parallel, 2-arm, randomized trial to compare an intervention group receiving OSTEOPOROSIS CHOICE to a control group receiving usual primary care. Postmenopausal women with bone mineral density T-scores of STEOPOROSIS CHOICE on five outcomes: (a) patient knowledge regarding osteoporosis risk factors and treatment; (b) quality of the decision-making process for both the patient and clinician; (c) patient and clinician acceptability and satisfaction with the decision aid; (d) rate of bisphosphonate use and adherence, and (e) trial processes (e.g., ability to recruit participants, collect patient outcomes). To capture these outcomes, we will use patient and clinician surveys following each visit and video recordings of the clinical encounters. These video recordings will also allow us to determine the extent to which clinicians previously exposed to the decision aid were able to recreate elements of the decision aid with control patients (i.e., contamination). Pharmacy prescription profiles and follow-up phone interviews will assess medication start and adherence at 6 months. Discussion This pilot trial will provide evidence of feasibility, validity of patient randomization, and preliminary efficacy of a novel approach -- decision aids -- to improving medication adherence for postmenopausal women at risk of osteoporotic fractures. The results will inform the design of a larger trial that could provide more precise estimates of the efficacy of the decision aid. Trial registration Clinical Trials.gov Identifier: NCT00578981

Several recent studies suggest that obesity may be a risk factor for fracture. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between body mass index (BMI) and future fracture risk at different skeletal sites. In prospective cohorts from more than 25 countries, baseline data on BMI were available in 398,610 women with an average age of 63 (range, 20-105) years and follow up of 2.2 million person-years during which 30,280 osteoporotic fractures (6457 hip fractures) occurred. Femoral neck BMD was measured in 108,267 of these women. Obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2) ) was present in 22%. A majority of osteoporotic fractures (81%) and hip fractures (87%) arose in non-obese women. Compared to a BMI of 25 kg/m(2) , the hazard ratio (HR) for osteoporotic fracture at a BMI of 35 kg/m(2) was 0.87 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.85-0.90). When adjusted for bone mineral density (BMD), however, the same comparison showed that the HR for osteoporotic fracture was increased (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.09-1.23). Low BMI is a risk factor for hip and all osteoporotic fracture, but is a protective factor for lower leg fracture, whereas high BMI is a risk factor for upper arm (humerus and elbow) fracture. When adjusted for BMD, low BMI remained a risk factor for hip fracture but was protective for osteoporotic fracture, tibia and fibula fracture, distal forearm fracture, and upper arm fracture. When adjusted for BMD, high BMI remained a risk factor for upper arm fracture but was also a risk factor for all osteoporotic fractures. The association between BMI and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites, and is modified by the interaction between BMI and BMD. At a population level, high BMI remains a protective factor for most sites of fragility fracture. The contribution of increasing population rates of obesity to apparent decreases in fracture rates should be explored.

Fractures of the proximal femur are the most devastating outcome of osteoporosis. It is generally understood that age-related changes in hip structure confer increased risk, but there have been few explicit comparisons of such changes in healthy subjects to those with hip fracture. In this study, we used quantitative computed tomography and tensor-based morphometry (TBM) to identify three-dimensional internal structural patterns of the proximal femur associated with age and with incident hip fracture. A population-based cohort of 349 women representing a broad age range (21-97years) was included in this study, along with a cohort of 222 older women (mean age 79±7years) with (n=74) and without (n=148) incident hip fracture. Images were spatially normalized to a standardized space, and age- and fracture-specific morphometric features were identified based on statistical maps of shape features described as local changes of bone volume. Morphometric features were visualized as maps of local contractions and expansions, and significance was displayed as Student's t-test statistical maps. Significant age-related changes included local expansions of regions low in volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) and local contractions of regions high in vBMD. Some significant fracture-related features resembled an accentuated aging process, including local expansion of the superior aspect of the trabecular bone compartment in the femoral neck, with contraction of the adjoining cortical bone. However, other features were observed only in the comparison of hip fracture subjects with age-matched controls including focal contractions of the cortical bone at the superior aspect of the femoral neck, the lateral cortical bone just inferior to the greater trochanter, and the anterior intertrochanteric region. Results of this study support the idea that the spatial distribution of morphometric features is relevant to age-related changes in bone and independent to fracture risk. In women, the identification by TBM of fracture-specific morphometric alterations of the proximal femur, in conjunction with vBMD and clinical risk factors, may improve hip fracture prediction.

Hip fracture risk rises exponentially with age, but there is little knowledge about how fracture-related alterations in hip structure differ from those of aging. We employed computed tomography (CT) imaging to visualize the three-dimensional (3D) spatial distribution of bone mineral density (BMD) in the hip in relation to age and incident hip fracture. We used intersubject image registration to integrate 3D hip CT images into a statistical atlas comprising women aged 21 to 97 years (n = 349) and a group of women with (n = 74) and without (n = 148) incident hip fracture 4 to 7 years after their imaging session. Voxel-based morphometry was used to generate Student's t test statistical maps from the atlas, which indicated regions that were significantly associated with age or with incident hip fracture. Scaling factors derived from intersubject image registration were employed as measures of bone size. BMD comparisons of young, middle-aged, and older American women showed preservation of load-bearing cortical and trabecular structures with aging, whereas extensive bone loss was observed in other trabecular and cortical regions. In contrast, comparisons of older Icelandic fracture women with age-matched controls showed that hip fracture was associated with a global cortical bone deficit, including both the superior cortical margin and the load-bearing inferior cortex. Bone size comparisons showed larger dimensions in older compared to younger American women and in older Icelandic fracture women compared to controls. The results indicate that older Icelandic women who sustain incident hip fracture have a structural phenotype that cannot be described as an accelerated pattern of normal age-related loss. The fracture-related cortical deficit noted in this study may provide a biomarker of increased hip fracture risk that may be translatable to dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) and other clinical images.

Because they are not reliably discriminated by areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurements, it is unclear whether minimal vertebral deformities represent early osteoporotic fractures. To address this, we compared 90 postmenopausal women with no deformity (controls) with 142 women with one or more semiquantitative grade 1 (mild) deformities and 51 women with any grade 2-3 (moderate/severe) deformities. aBMD was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), lumbar spine volumetric bone mineral density (vBMD) and geometry by quantitative computed tomography (QCT), bone microstructure by high-resolution peripheral QCT at the radius (HRpQCT), and vertebral compressive strength and load-to-strength ratio by finite-element analysis (FEA) of lumbar spine QCT images. Compared with controls, women with grade 1 deformities had significantly worse values for many bone density, structure, and strength parameters, although deficits all were much worse for the women with grade 2-3 deformities. Likewise, these skeletal parameters were more strongly associated with moderate to severe than with mild deformities by age-adjusted logistic regression. Nonetheless, grade 1 vertebral deformities were significantly associated with four of the five main variable categories assessed: bone density (lumbar spine vBMD), bone geometry (vertebral apparent cortical thickness), bone strength (overall vertebral compressive strength by FEA), and load-to-strength ratio (45-degree forward bending ÷ vertebral compressive strength). Thus significantly impaired bone density, structure, and strength compared with controls indicate that many grade 1 deformities do represent early osteoporotic fractures, with corresponding implications for clinical decision making.

Although age-related variations in areal bone mineral density (aBMD) and the prevalence of osteoporosis have been well characterized, there is a paucity of data on femoral strength in the population. Addressing this issue, we used finite-element analysis of quantitative computed tomographic scans to assess femoral strength in an age-stratified cohort of 362 women and 317 men, aged 21 to 89 years, randomly sampled from the population of Rochester, MN, and compared femoral strength with femoral neck aBMD. Percent reductions over adulthood were much greater for femoral strength (55% in women, 39% in men) than for femoral neck aBMD (26% in women, 21% in men), an effect that was accentuated in women. Notable declines in strength started in the mid-40s for women and one decade later for men. At advanced age, most of the strength deficit for women compared with men was a result of this decade-earlier onset of strength loss for women, this factor being more important than sex-related differences in peak bone strength and annual rates of bone loss. For both sexes, the prevalence of "low femoral strength" (

On the basis of updated fracture and mortality data, we recommend that the base population values used in the US version of FRAX® be revised. The impact of suggested changes is likely to be a lowering of 10-year fracture probabilities.Evaluation of results produced by the US version of FRAX® indicates that this tool overestimates the likelihood of major osteoporotic fracture. In an attempt to correct this, we updated underlying fracture and mortality rates for the model.We used US hospital discharge data from 2006 to calculate annual age- and sex-specific hip fracture rates and age-specific ratios to estimate clinical vertebral fracture rates. To estimate the incidence of any one of four major osteoporotic fractures, we first summed these newly derived hip and vertebral fracture estimates with Olmsted County, MN, wrist and upper humerus fracture rates, and then applied 10–20% discounts for overlap.Compared with rates used in the current FRAX® tool, 2006 hip fracture rates are about 16% lower, with greatest reductions observed among those below age 65 years; major osteoporotic fracture rates are about one quarter lower, with similar reductions across all ages.We recommend revising the US-FRAX by updating current base population values for hip fracture and major osteoporotic fracture. The impact of these revisions on FRAX® is likely to be lowering of 10-year fracture probabilities, but more precise estimates of the impact of these changes will be available after these new rates are incorporated into the FRAX® tool.

PurposeAtypical hyperplasia is a well-recognized risk factor for breast cancer, conveying an approximately four-fold increased risk. Data regarding long-term absolute risk and factors for risk stratification are needed.Patients and methodsWomen with atypical hyperplasia in the Mayo Benign Breast Disease Cohort were identified through pathology review. Subsequent breast cancers were identified via medical records and a questionnaire. Relative risks (RRs) were estimated using standardized incidence ratios, comparing the observed number of breast cancers with those expected based on Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. Age, histologic factors, and family history were evaluated as risk modifiers. Plots of cumulative breast cancer incidence provided estimates of risk over time.ResultsWith mean follow-up of 13.7 years, 66 breast cancers (19.9%) occurred among 331 women with atypia. RR of breast cancer with atypia was 3.88 (95% CI, 3.00 to 4.94). Marked elevations in risk were seen with multifocal atypia (eg, three or more foci with calcifications [RR, 10.35; 95% CI, 6.13 to 16.4]). RR was higher for younger women (< 45; RR, 6.76; 95% CI, 3.24 to 12.4). Risk was similar for atypical ductal and atypical lobular hyperplasia, and family history added no significant risk. Breast cancer risk remained elevated over 20 years, and the cumulative incidence approached 35% at 30 years.ConclusionAmong women with atypical hyperplasia, multiple foci of atypia and the presence of histologic calcifications may indicate "very high risk" status (> 50% risk at 20 years). A positive family history does not further increase risk in women with atypia.

BackgroundBenign breast disease is an important risk factor for breast cancer. We studied a large group of women with benign breast disease to obtain reliable estimates of this risk.MethodsWe identified all women who received a diagnosis of benign breast disease at the Mayo Clinic between 1967 and 1991. Breast-cancer events were obtained from medical records and questionnaires. To estimate relative risks, we compared the number of observed breast cancers with the number expected on the basis of the rates of breast cancer in the Iowa Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry.ResultsWe followed 9087 women for a median of 15 years. The histologic findings were nonproliferative lesions in 67 percent of women, proliferative lesions without atypia in 30 percent, and atypical hyperplasia in 4 percent. To date, 707 breast cancers have developed. The relative risk of breast cancer for the cohort was 1.56 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.45 to 1.68), and this increased risk persisted for at least 25 years after biopsy. The relative risk associated with atypia was 4.24 (95 percent confidence interval, 3.26 to 5.41), as compared with a relative risk of 1.88 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.66 to 2.12) for proliferative changes without atypia and of 1.27 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.15 to 1.41) for nonproliferative lesions. The strength of the family history of breast cancer, available for 4808 women, was a risk factor that was independent of histologic findings. No increased risk was found among women with no family history and nonproliferative findings. In the first 10 years after the initial biopsy, an excess of cancers occurred in the same breast, especially in women with atypia.ConclusionsRisk factors for breast cancer after the diagnosis of benign breast disease include the histologic classification of a benign breast lesion and a family history of breast cancer.