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3 results on '"Mengzhu Zhou"'

1. A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF GOUT PATIENTS IN A GRADE A TERTIARY HOSPITAL IN QINGDAO, CHINA

Author

GUO Jianguo, SUN Mengzhu, ZHOU Xiaobin

Subjects
gout, forecasting, models, statistical, time factors, health education, prevention and control, ambulatory care, Medicine
Abstract

Objective To investigate the rules of gout patients attending the hospital by analyzing their time series data, and to provide a reference for the prevention and treatment of gout in medical and health departments. Methods Time series data were collected from the gout patients who attended a grade A tertiary hospital in Qingdao from 2013 to 2018, and a descriptive analysis was performed for the data including the time of patients attending the hospital, age, and sex. An Autoregressive Integra-ted Moving Average (ARIMA) model was established based on the time series data of gout patients in 2013—2018, and the data of gout patients from January to October, 2019, were used for the extrapolation validation of this model. The X-11 method was used to analyze seasonal factors, long-term trends, and random fluctuations. Results Among the gout patients attending the hospital in 2013—2018, male patients accounted for 94.68% and female patients accounted for 5.32%; in terms of age composition, the patients aged 30-39 years, 40-49 years, 50-59 years, and >60 years accounted for 21.50%, 21.67%, 19.74%, and 23.32%, respectively. The ARIMA model established based on time series data of the gout patients in 2013—2018 was ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12, with an AIC value of 674.89 and an SBC value of 679.05, and the extrapolation verification of the predictive effect of this model showed an MAE value of 86.28 and an MAPE value of 7.64%. The X-11 method for seasonal stability (F=27.81,P0.05) showed that the time series of gout patients had stable seasonality and was not affected by time. The number of patients attending the hospital in July and August each year was higher than the mean value, and that in February was lower than the mean value; the number of patients was stable in the other months. Conclusion The ARIMA model is effective with stable prediction results, and combined with the seasonal factors and long-term trend extracted by the X-11 method, it can better explain the rules of gout patients attending the hospital and thus provide a reference for health authorities and medical institutions to formulate the prevention and control policies for gout, conduct health education, and allocate human resources.

Published
2023
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2. Transport and retention patterns of fragmental microplastics in saturated and unsaturated porous media: A real-time pore-scale visualization

Author

Shunan Dong, Mengzhu Zhou, Xiaoting Su, Jihong Xia, Lei Wang, Huiyi Wu, Emmanuel B. Suakollie, and Dengjun Wang

Subjects
Environmental Engineering, Ecological Modeling, Pollution, Waste Management and Disposal, Water Science and Technology, Civil and Structural Engineering
Abstract

The environmental behaviors of microplastics (MPs) have garnered ever-increasing attention globally. To overcome the limitations of commonly used "black box", a real-time pore-scale visualization system including microscope, charge coupled device (CCD) microscope camera, and flow cell (connected with pump and sample collector) was used to unravel the transport and retention mechanisms of fragmental microplastics (FMPs) in saturated and unsaturated porous media. The breakthrough curves (BTCs) of effluent concentrations from the flow cells were used to quantitatively analyze FMPs transport. The videos gathered from different transport scenarios indicated that FMPs can move along with the bulk flow in porous media, but also move around the sand surfaces via sliding, rolling, and saltating patterns. The FMPs were retained in porous media mainly via deposition and straining in saturated porous media. Interestingly, little FMPs were captured by the air-water interface in unsaturated conditions. The mobility of FMPs varied with environmental factors, which became lower at higher solution ionic strength (IS), smaller grain size, and lower water content in porous media. Flow rate barely affected the transport of FMPs under 0.1 mM IS with the mass recovery rate ranging between 65.8 and 67.5%, but significantly enhanced FMPs mobility under 10 mM IS through reducing the moving rate. The IS and grain size showed a more significant effect on the transport of FMPs in unsaturated porous media. Our findings, for the first time, visually deciphered the transport and retention patterns of MPs with fragmental shapes on pore-scale, expanding our current knowledge of the fate and transport of more realistic MPs in the environment.

Published
2022
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3. Human Behavior in "Hobbes' State of Nature" of China: An Experimental Study.

Author

Xunzhou Ma, Mengzhu Zhou, Shuwen Deng, and Fengwei Sun

Subjects
HUMAN behavior, STATE of nature (Philosophy), SOCIAL contract, ETHNIC groups, COOPERATION
Abstract

Hobbes' greatest work, Leviathan, pursues the theme that in the condition in which people "lack a common power to keep them all in awe", known as the State of Nature, human nature would result in a state of war of every man against every man. This state approximates the current situation of China, in which market traders wildly yield commodities of bad quality for each other by taking advantage of ineffective supervision. Our study examines Hobbes' argument and explores the relevant policy implications by translating the State of Nature into the language of an economic experiment and then conducting the experiment. The results show the weaknesses of human nature against peace, including the pursuit of being better off in comparison to others, pre-emptive motivation and seeking rectification that drives Hobbes' pessimistic conclusion. Meanwhile, the evidence does not show any possibility that emotion of ethnic in-group and fierceness of competition might unite people into cooperating as a remedy as the situation gets worse. Moreover, the sentimental response to being exploited is "regret" for doing kindness, which makes the bottomup spontaneous reform of a supervision system impossible. Thus, the reform launched as an initiative by government is expected to be the only way to end the smoke-free social conflicts for China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2016

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