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Hot Jupiters are typically assumed to be synchronously rotating, from tidal locking. Their thermally-driven atmospheric winds experience Lorentz drag on the planetary magnetic field anchored at depth. We find that the magnetic torque does not integrate to zero over the entire atmosphere. The resulting angular momentum feedback on the bulk interior can thus drive the planet away from synchronous rotation. Using a toy tidal-ohmic model and atmospheric GCM outputs for HD189733b, HD209458b and Kepler7b, we establish that off-synchronous rotation can be substantial at tidal-ohmic equilibrium for sufficiently hot and/or magnetized hot Jupiters. Potential consequences of asynchronous rotation for hot Jupiter phenomenology motivate follow-up work on the tidal-ohmic scenario with approaches that go beyond our toy model., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures

Our recent work shows how M-Earth climates and transmission spectra depend on the amount of ice-free ocean on the planet's dayside and the mass of N2 in its atmosphere. M-Earths with more ice-free ocean and thicker atmospheres are hotter and more humid, and have larger water vapour features in their transmission spectra. In this paper, we describe a climate transition in high-pN2 simulations from the traditional ``eyeball" M-Earth climate, in which only the substellar region is temperate, to a ``temperate nightside" regime in which both the dayside and the nightside are entirely ice-free. Between these two states, there is a ``transition" regime with partial nightside ice cover. We use 3D climate simulations to describe the climate transition from frozen to deglaciated nightsides. We attribute this transition to increased advection and heat transport by water vapour in thicker atmospheres. We find that the nightside transitions smoothly back and forth between frozen and ice-free when the instellation or pCO2 is perturbed, with no hysteresis. We also find an analogous transition in colder planets: those with thin atmospheres can have a dayside hotspot when the instellation is low, whereas those with more massive atmospheres are more likely to be in the ``snowball" regime, featuring a completely frozen dayside, due to the increased advection of heat away from the substellar point. We show how both of these climate transitions are sensitive to instellation, land cover, and atmosphere mass. We generate synthetic transmission spectra and phase curves for the range of climates in our simulations., Comment: 20 pages, 17 figures, submitted to ApJ

Time-dependent meridional circulation and differential rotation in radiative zones are central open issues in stellar evolution theory. We streamline this challenging problem using the downward control principle of atmospheric science, under a geostrophic f-plane approximation. We recover the known stellar physics result that the steady-state meridional circulation decays on the length scale proportional to N/f sqrt(Pr), assuming molecular viscosity is the dominant drag mechanism. Prior to steady-state, the meridional circulation and the zonal wind (= differential rotation) spread together via radiative diffusion, under thermal wind balance. The corresponding (4th-order) hyperdiffusion process is reasonably well approximated by regular (2nd-order) diffusion on scales of order a pressure scale-height. We derive an inhomogeneous diffusion (equiv. advection-diffusion) equation for the zonal flow which admits closed-form time-dependent solutions in a finite depth domain, allowing for rapid prototyping of differential rotation profiles. In the weak drag limit, we find that the time to rotational steady-state can be longer than the Eddington-Sweet time and be instead determined by the longer drag time. Unless strong enough drag operates, the internal rotation of main-sequence stars may thus never reach steady-state. Streamlined meridional circulation solutions provide leading-order internal rotation profiles for studying the role of fluid/MHD instabilities (or waves) in redistributing angular momentum in the radiative zones of stars. Despite clear geometrical limitations and simplifying assumptions, one might expect our thin-layer geostrophic approach to offer qualitatively useful results to understand deep meridional circulation in stars., Comment: 14 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in Geophysical and Astrophysical Fluid Dynamics

We have shown in a recent study, using 3D climate simulations, that dayside land cover has a substantial impact on the climate of a synchronously rotating temperate rocky planet such as Proxima Centauri b. Building on that result, we generate synthetic transit spectra from our simulations to assess the impact of these land-induced climate uncertainties on water vapour transit signals. We find that distinct climate regimes will likely be very difficult to differentiate in transit spectra, even under the more favourable conditions of smaller planets orbiting ultracool dwarfs. Further, we show that additional climate ambiguities arise when both land cover and atmosphere mass are unknown, as is likely to be the case for transiting planets. While water vapour may be detectable under favourable conditions, it may be nearly impossible to infer a rocky planet's surface conditions or climate state from its transit spectrum due to the interdependent effects of land cover and atmosphere mass on surface temperature, humidity, and terminator cloud cover., Comment: 6 pages, 6 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

[Abridged abstract] Large Language Models (LLMs) can solve some undergraduate-level to graduate-level physics textbook problems and are proficient at coding. Combining these two capabilities could one day enable AI systems to simulate and predict the physical world. We present an evaluation of state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLMs on PhD-level to research-level computational physics problems. We condition LLM generation on the use of well-documented and widely-used packages to elicit coding capabilities in the physics and astrophysics domains. We contribute $\sim 50$ original and challenging problems in celestial mechanics (with REBOUND), stellar physics (with MESA), 1D fluid dynamics (with Dedalus) and non-linear dynamics (with SciPy). Since our problems do not admit unique solutions, we evaluate LLM performance on several soft metrics: counts of lines that contain different types of errors (coding, physics, necessity and sufficiency) as well as a more "educational" Pass-Fail metric focused on capturing the salient physical ingredients of the problem at hand. As expected, today's SOTA LLM (GPT4) zero-shot fails most of our problems, although about 40\% of the solutions could plausibly get a passing grade. About $70-90 \%$ of the code lines produced are necessary, sufficient and correct (coding \& physics). Physics and coding errors are the most common, with some unnecessary or insufficient lines. We observe significant variations across problem class and difficulty. We identify several failure modes of GPT4 in the computational physics domain. Our reconnaissance work provides a snapshot of current computational capabilities in classical physics and points to obvious improvement targets if AI systems are ever to reach a basic level of autonomy in physics simulation capabilities., Comment: Accepted for publication in Physica Scripta. Abridged abstract. 15 pages + appendix, 1 figure. Comments are welcome

Exploring the properties of exoplanets near or inside the radius valley provides insights on the transition from the rocky super-Earths to the larger, hydrogen-rich atmosphere mini-Neptunes. Here, we report the discovery of TOI-1452 b, a transiting super-Earth ($R_{\rm p} = 1.67 \pm 0.07$ R$_{\oplus}$) in an 11.1--day temperate orbit ($T_{\rm eq} = 326 \pm 7$ K) around the primary member ($H = 10.0$, $T_{\rm eff} = 3185 \pm 50$ K) of a nearby visual binary M dwarf. The transits were first detected by TESS, then successfully isolated between the two $3.2^{\prime\prime}$ companions with ground-based photometry from OMM and MuSCAT3. The planetary nature of TOI-1452 b was established through high-precision velocimetry with the near-infrared SPIRou spectropolarimeter as part of the ongoing SPIRou Legacy Survey. The measured planetary mass ($4.8 \pm 1.3$ M$_{\oplus}$) and inferred bulk density ($5.6^{+1.8}_{-1.6}$ g/cm$^3$) is suggestive of a rocky core surrounded by a volatile-rich envelope. More quantitatively, the mass and radius of TOI-1452 b, combined with the stellar abundance of refractory elements (Fe, Mg and Si) measured by SPIRou, is consistent with a core mass fraction of $18\pm6$ % and a water mass fraction of $22^{+21}_{-13}$%. The water world candidate TOI-1452 b is a prime target for future atmospheric characterization with JWST, featuring a Transmission Spectroscopy Metric similar to other well-known temperate small planets such as LHS 1140 b and K2-18 b. The system is located near Webb's northern Continuous Viewing Zone, implying that is can be followed at almost any moment of the year., Comment: Published in The Astronomical Journal

Differential settling and growth of dust grains impact the structure of the radiative envelopes of gaseous planets during formation. Sufficiently rapid dust growth can result in envelopes with substantially reduced opacities for radiation transport, thereby facilitating planet formation. We revisit the problem and establish that dust settling and grain growth also lead to outer planetary envelopes that are prone to compositional instabilities, by virtue of their inverted mean-molecular weight gradients. Under a variety of conditions, we find that the radiative envelopes of forming planets experience compositional turbulence driven by a semi-transparent version of the thermohaline instability ('fingering convection'). The compositional turbulence seems efficient at mixing dust in the radiative envelopes of planets forming at super-AU distances (say $5$ AU) from a Sun-like star, but not so at sub-AU distances (say $0.2$ AU). We also address the possibility of compositional layering in this context. Distinct turbulent regimes for planetary envelopes growing at sub-AU vs. super-AU distances could leave an imprint on the final planets formed., Comment: 9 pages, MNRAS accepted

Turbulent transport driven by secular shear instabilities can lead to enhanced vertical mixing in hot Jupiter atmospheres, impacting their cloudiness, chemistry and overall vertical structure. We discuss the turbulent regime expected and evaluate theoretical uncertainties on the strength of the vertical mixing (i.e, $K_{\rm zz}$ values). We focus our work on three well-studied hot Jupiters with a hierarchy of atmospheric temperatures: HD189733b ($T_{\rm eq} \simeq 1200$K), HD209458b ($T_{\rm eq} \simeq 1450$K) and Kepler7b ($T_{\rm eq} \simeq 1630$K). $K_{\rm zz}$ uncertainties are large. They are dominated by i) the poorly understood magnitude of turbulent transport and ii) the semi-transparent nature of shear turbulence near the planetary photosphere. Using a specific Moore-Spiegel instability threshold, we infer that the cooler HD189733b is not subject to enhanced mixing from semi-transparent shear turbulence while the daysides of the hotter Kepler7b and (marginally so) HD209458b are. Enhanced vertical mixing is generally expected to manifest on hot enough exoplanets, with $T_{\rm eq} > 1500-1600$K. On a given planet, day and night $K_{\rm zz}$ profiles can differ by an order of magnitude or more. Vertical mixing is slightly favoured in equatorial regions, where the atmospheric zonal shear is strongest. In all three planetary cases studied, momentum feedback on the atmospheric mean flow is minor to negligible., Comment: MNRAS accepted

A planet's surface conditions can significantly impact its climate and habitability. In this study, we use the 3D general circulation model ExoPlaSim to systematically vary dayside land cover on a synchronously rotating, temperate rocky planet under two extreme and opposite continent configurations, in which either all of the land or all of the ocean is centred at the substellar point. We identify water vapour and sea ice as competing drivers of climate, and we isolate land-dependent regimes under which one or the other dominates. We find that the amount and configuration of land can change the planet's globally averaged surface temperature by up to 20K, and its atmospheric water vapour content by several orders of magnitude. The most discrepant models have partial dayside land cover with opposite continent configurations. Since transit spectroscopy may permit observations of M-dwarf planets' atmospheres, but not their surfaces, these land-related climate differences likely represent a limiting uncertainty in a given planet's climate, even if its atmospheric composition is known. Our results are robust to variations in atmospheric CO2 concentration, stellar temperature, and instellation., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures

The discovery of a large number of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zones of their stars, many of which are qualitatively different from Earth, has led to a growing need for fast and flexible 3D climate models, which could model such planets and explore multiple possible climate states and surface conditions. We respond to that need by creating ExoPlaSim, a modified version of the Planet Simulator (PlaSim) that is designed to be applicable to synchronously rotating terrestrial planets, planets orbiting stars with non-solar spectra, and planets with non-Earth-like surface pressures. In this paper we describe our modifications, present validation tests of ExoPlaSim's performance against other GCMs, and demonstrate its utility by performing two simple experiments involving hundreds of models. We find that ExoPlaSim agrees qualitatively with more-sophisticated GCMs such as ExoCAM, LMDG, and ROCKE-3D, falling within the ensemble distribution on multiple measures. The model is fast enough that it enables large parameter surveys with hundreds to thousands of models, potentially enabling the efficient use of a 3D climate model in retrievals of future exoplanet observations. We describe our efforts to make ExoPlaSim accessible to non-modellers, including observers, non-computational theorists, students, and educators through a new Python API and streamlined installation through pip, along with online documentation., Comment: 54 pages, 47 figures. Accepted to MNRAS. Model available at https://pypi.org/project/exoplasim/ with documentation at https://exoplasim.readthedocs.io/en/latest/

Inferring the climate and surface conditions of terrestrial exoplanets in the habitable zone is a major goal for the field of exoplanet science. This pursuit will require both statistical analyses of the population of habitable planets as well as in-depth analyses of the climates of individual planets. Given the close relationship between habitability and surface liquid water, it is important to ask whether the fraction of a planet's surface where water can be a liquid, $\chi_\text{hab}$, can be inferred from observations. We have produced a diverse bank of 1,874 3D climate models and computed the full-phase reflectance and emission spectrum for each model to investigate whether surface climate inference is feasible with high-quality direct imaging or secondary eclipse spectroscopy. These models represent the outcome of approximately 200,000 total simulated years of climate and over 50,000 CPU-hours, and the roughly-100 GB model bank and its associated spectra are being made publicly-available for community use. We find that there are correlations between spectra and $\chi_\text{hab}$ that will permit statistical approaches. However, spectral degeneracies in the climate observables produced by our model bank indicate that inference of individual climates is likely to be model-dependent, and inference will likely be impossible without exhaustive explorations of the climate parameter space. The diversity of potential climates on habitable planets therefore poses fundamental challenges to remote sensing efforts targeting exo-Earths., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Revised and accepted for publication in MNRAS

Uranus and Neptune are the archetypes of "ice giants", a class of planets that may be among the most common in the Galaxy. They hold the keys to understand the atmospheric dynamics and structure of planets with hydrogen atmospheres inside and outside the solar system; however, they are also the last unexplored planets of the Solar System. Their atmospheres are active and storms are believed to be fueled by methane condensation which is both extremely abundant and occurs at low optical depth. This means that mapping temperature and methane abundance as a function of position and depth will inform us on how convection organizes in an atmosphere with no surface and condensates that are heavier than the surrounding air, a general feature of giant planets. Owing to the spatial and temporal variability of these atmospheres, an orbiter is required. A probe would provide a reference atmospheric profile to lift ambiguities inherent to remote observations. It would also measure the abundances of noble gases which can be used to reconstruct the history of planet formation in the Solar System. Finally, mapping the planets' gravity and magnetic fields will be essential to constrain their global composition, atmospheric dynamics, structure and evolution. An exploration of Uranus or Neptune will be essential to understand these planets and will also be key to constrain and analyze data obtained at Jupiter, Saturn, and for numerous exoplanets with hydrogen atmospheres., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1908.02092

As the number of known exoplanets has climbed into the thousands, efforts by theorists to understand the diversity of climates that may exist on terrestrial planets in the habitable zone have also accelerated. These efforts have ranged from analytical, to simple 0-D, 1-D, and 2-D models, to highly-sophisticated 3D global climate models (GCMs) adapted from Earth climate and weather models. The advantage of the latter is that fewer physical processes are reduced to simple parameterizations and empirical fits, and may instead be represented by physically-motivated algorithms. However, many such models are difficult to use, and take a long time to reach a converged state relative to simpler models, thereby limiting the amount of parameter space that can be explored. We use PlaSim, a 3D climate model of intermediate complexity, to bridge this gap, allowing us to produce hundreds to thousands of model outputs that have reached energy balance equilibrium at the surface and top of the atmosphere. We are making our model outputs available to the community in a permanent Dataverse repository (https://dataverse.scholarsportal.info/dataverse/kmenou). A subset of our model outputs can be used directly with external spectral postprocessing tools, and we have used them with petitRADTRANS and SBDART in order to create synthetic observables representative of fully-3D climates. Another natural use of this repository will be to use more-sophisticated GCMs to cross-check and verify PlaSim's results, and to explore in more detail those regions of the exoplanet parameter space identified in our PlaSim results as being of particular interest. We will continue to add models to this repository in the future, including more than 1000 models in the short- to medium-term future, expanding the diversity of climates represented therein., Comment: 6 pages, 1 figure. Latest version updates affiliation

We combine analytical understanding of resonant dynamics in two-planet systems with machine learning techniques to train a model capable of robustly classifying stability in compact multi-planet systems over long timescales of $10^9$ orbits. Our Stability of Planetary Orbital Configurations Klassifier (SPOCK) predicts stability using physically motivated summary statistics measured in integrations of the first $10^4$ orbits, thus achieving speed-ups of up to $10^5$ over full simulations. This computationally opens up the stability constrained characterization of multi-planet systems. Our model, trained on $\approx 100,000$ three-planet systems sampled at discrete resonances, generalizes both to a sample spanning a continuous period-ratio range, as well as to a large five-planet sample with qualitatively different configurations to our training dataset. Our approach significantly outperforms previous methods based on systems' angular momentum deficit, chaos indicators, and parametrized fits to numerical integrations. We use SPOCK to constrain the free eccentricities between the inner and outer pairs of planets in the Kepler-431 system of three approximately Earth-sized planets to both be below 0.05. Our stability analysis provides significantly stronger eccentricity constraints than currently achievable through either radial velocity or transit duration measurements for small planets, and within a factor of a few of systems that exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). Given that current exoplanet detection strategies now rarely allow for strong TTV constraints (Hadden et al., 2019), SPOCK enables a powerful complementary method for precisely characterizing compact multi-planet systems. We publicly release SPOCK for community use., Comment: Published week of July 13th in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: https://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.2001258117. Check out simple usage of package (and regenerate paper figures) at: https://github.com/dtamayo/spock

We present calculations of the occurrence rate of small close-in planets around low mass dwarf stars using the known planet populations from the $Kepler$ and $K2$ missions. Applying completeness corrections clearly reveals the radius valley in the maximum a-posteriori occurrence rates as a function of orbital separation and planet radius. We measure the slope of the valley to be $r_{p,\text{valley}} \propto F^{-0.060\pm 0.025}$ which bears the opposite sign from that measured around Sun-like stars thus suggesting that thermally driven atmospheric mass loss may not dominate the evolution of planets in the low stellar mass regime or that we are witnessing the emergence of a separate channel of planet formation. The latter notion is supported by the relative occurrence of rocky to non-rocky planets increasing from $0.5\pm 0.1$ around mid-K dwarfs to $8.5\pm 4.6$ around mid-M dwarfs. Furthermore, the center of the radius valley at $1.54\pm 0.16$ R$_{\oplus}$ is shown to shift to smaller sizes with decreasing stellar mass in agreement with physical models of photoevaporation, core-powered mass loss, and gas-poor formation. Although current measurements are insufficient to robustly identify the dominant formation pathway of the radius valley, such inferences may be obtained by $TESS$ with $\mathcal{O}(85,000)$ mid-to-late M dwarfs observed with 2-minute cadence. The measurements presented herein also precisely designate the subset of planetary orbital periods and radii that should be targeted in radial velocity surveys to resolve the rocky to non-rocky transition around low mass stars., Comment: Submitted to AAS journals. 23 pages. Table data included as csv files in source. 15 figures including 6 interactive figures when viewed in Adobe Acrobat

Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of atmospheric flows are now routinely used to interpret observational data on Hot Jupiters. Localized "equatorial $\beta$-plane" simulations by Fromang et al. (2016) have revealed that a barotropic (horizontal shear) instability of the equatorial jet appears at horizontal resolutions beyond those typically achieved in global models; this instability could limit wind speeds and lead to increased atmospheric variability. To address this possibility, we adapt the computationally efficient, pseudo-spectral PlaSim GCM, originally designed for Earth studies, to model Hot Jupiter atmospheric flows and validate it on the Heng et al. (2011) reference benchmark. We then present high resolution global models of HD209458b, with horizontal resolutions of T85 (128x256) and T127 (192x384). The barotropic instability phenomenology found in $\beta$-plane simulations is not reproduced in these global models, despite comparably high resolutions. Nevertheless, high resolution models do exhibit additional flow variability on long timescales (of order 100 planet days or more), which is absent from the lower resolution models. It manifests as a breakdown of north-south symmetry of the equatorial wind. From post-processing the atmospheric flows at various resolutions (assuming a cloud-free situation), we show that the stronger flow variability achieved at high resolution does not translate into noticeably stronger dayside infrared flux variability. More generally, our results suggest that high horizontal resolutions are not required to capture the key features of hot Jupiter atmospheric flows., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS

A large number of studies have responded to the growing body of confirmed terrestrial habitable zone exoplanets by presenting models of various possible climates. However, the impact of the partial pressure of background gases such as N$_2$ has not yet been well-explored, despite the abundance of N$_2$ in Earth's atmosphere and the lack of constraints on its typical abundance in terrestrial planet atmospheres. We use PlaSim, a fast 3D climate model, to simulate many hundreds of climates around Sun-like stars with varying N$_2$ partial pressures, instellations, and surface characteristics to identify the impact of the background gas partial pressure on the climate. We find that the climate's response is nonlinear and highly sensitive to the background gas partial pressure. We identify pressure broadening of greenhouse gas (such as CO$_2$ and H$_2$O) absorption lines, amplification of warming or cooling by the water vapor greenhouse positive feedback, heat transport efficiency, and cooling through Rayleigh scattering as the dominant competing mechanisms that determine the equilibrium climate for a given N$_2$ partial pressure. Finally, we show that different amounts of N$_2$ should have a significant effect on broadband reflected light observations of terrestrial exoplanets around Sun-like stars., Comment: Revised; accepted for publication in Icarus. 45 pages, 15 figures, 2 tables

Crater ellipticity determination is a complex and time consuming task that so far has evaded successful automation. We train a state of the art computer vision algorithm to identify craters in Lunar digital elevation maps and retrieve their sizes and 2D shapes. The computational backbone of the model is MaskRCNN, an "instance segmentation" general framework that detects craters in an image while simultaneously producing a mask for each crater that traces its outer rim. Our post-processing pipeline then finds the closest fitting ellipse to these masks, allowing us to retrieve the crater ellipticities. Our model is able to correctly identify 87\% of known craters in the longitude range we hid from the network during training and validation (test set), while predicting thousands of additional craters not present in our training data. Manual validation of a subset of these "new" craters indicates that a majority of them are real, which we take as an indicator of the strength of our model in learning to identify craters, despite incomplete training data. The crater size, ellipticity, and depth distributions predicted by our model are consistent with human-generated results. The model allows us to perform a large scale search for differences in crater diameter and shape distributions between the lunar highlands and maria, and we exclude any such differences with a high statistical significance. The predicted test set catalogue and trained model are available here: https://github.com/malidib/Craters_MaskRCNN/., Comment: 59 pages, 13 figures, Accepted for publication in Icarus

Turbulent vertical transport driven by double-diffusive shear instabilities is identified as likely important in hot exoplanet atmospheres. In hot Jupiter atmospheres, the resulting vertical mixing appears sufficient to alleviate the nightside cold trap, thus facilitating the maintenance of nocturnal clouds on these planets. The strong level of vertical mixing expected near hot Jupiter thermal photospheres will impact their atmospheric chemistry and even their vertical structures where cloud radiative feedback proves important., Comment: MNRAS Letters accepted

Machine learning (ML) is a standard approach for estimating the redshifts of galaxies when only photometric information is available. ML photo-z solutions have traditionally ignored the morphological information available in galaxy images or partly included it in the form of hand-crafted features, with mixed results. We train a morphology-aware photometric redshift machine using modern deep learning tools. It uses a custom architecture that jointly trains on galaxy fluxes, colors and images. Galaxy-integrated quantities are fed to a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) branch while images are fed to a convolutional (convnet) branch that can learn relevant morphological features. This split MLP-convnet architecture, which aims to disentangle strong photometric features from comparatively weak morphological ones, proves important for strong performance: a regular convnet-only architecture, while exposed to all available photometric information in images, delivers comparatively poor performance. We present a cross-validated MLP-convnet model trained on 130,000 SDSS-DR12 galaxies that outperforms a hyperoptimized Gradient Boosting solution (hyperopt+XGBoost), as well as the equivalent MLP-only architecture, on the redshift bias metric. The 4-fold cross-validated MLP-convnet model achieves a bias $\delta z / (1+z) =-0.70 \pm 1 \times 10^{-3} $, approaching the performance of a reference ANNZ2 ensemble of 100 distinct models trained on a comparable dataset. The relative performance of the morphology-aware and morphology-blind models indicates that galaxy morphology does improve ML-based photometric redshift estimation., Comment: MNRAS accepted

Crater counting on the Moon and other bodies is crucial to constrain the dynamical history of the Solar System. This has traditionally been done by visual inspection of images, thus limiting the scope, efficiency, and/or accuracy of retrieval. In this paper we demonstrate the viability of using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to determine the positions and sizes of craters from Lunar digital elevation maps (DEMs). We recover 92% of craters from the human-generated test set and almost double the total number of crater detections. Of these new craters, 15% are smaller in diameter than the minimum crater size in the ground-truth dataset. Our median fractional longitude, latitude and radius errors are 11% or less, representing good agreement with the human-generated datasets. From a manual inspection of 361 new craters we estimate the false positive rate of new craters to be 11%. Moreover, our Moon-trained CNN performs well when tested on DEM images of Mercury, detecting a large fraction of craters in each map. Our results suggest that deep learning will be a useful tool for rapidly and automatically extracting craters on various Solar System bodies. We make our code and data publicly available at https://github.com/silburt/DeepMoon.git and https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1133969 ., Comment: 41 pages, 5 figures, Accepted for publication in Icarus. Comments and requests are welcomed

Habitable planets are commonly imagined to be temperate planets like Earth, with areas of open ocean and warm land. In contrast, planets in snowball states, where oceans are entirely ice-covered, are believed to be inhospitable. However, we show using a general circulation model that terrestrial planets in the inner habitable zone are able to support large unfrozen areas of land while in a snowball state. Due to their lower albedo, these unfrozen regions reach summer temperatures in excess of 10 $^\circ$Celsius. Such conditions permit CO$_2$ weathering, suggesting that continental weathering can provide a mechanism for trapping planets in stable snowball states. The presence of land areas with warm temperatures and liquid surface water motivates a more-nuanced understanding of habitability during these snowball events., Comment: 22 pages, 11 figures; significant revisions after peer review (including changed title and abstract); accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets

The SPIRou near infrared spectro-polarimeter is destined to begin science operations at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope in mid-2018. One of the instrument's primary science goals is to discover the closest exoplanets to the Solar System by conducting a 3-5 year long radial velocity survey of nearby M dwarfs at an expected precision of $\sim 1$ m s$^{-1}$; the SPIRou Legacy Survey-Planet Search (SLS-PS). In this study we conduct a detailed Monte-Carlo simulation of the SLS-PS using our current understanding of the occurrence rate of M dwarf planetary systems and physical models of stellar activity. From simultaneous modelling of planetary signals and activity, we predict the population of planets detected in the SLS-PS. With our fiducial survey strategy and expected instrument performance over a nominal survey length of $\sim 3$ years, we expect SPIRou to detect $85.3^{+29.3}_{-12.4}$ planets including $20.0^{+16.8}_{-7.2}$ habitable zone planets and $8.1^{+7.6}_{-3.2}$ Earth-like planets from a sample of 100 M1-M8.5 dwarfs out to 11 pc. By studying mid-to-late M dwarfs previously inaccessible to existing optical velocimeters, SPIRou will put meaningful constraints on the occurrence rate of planets around those stars including the value of $\eta_{\oplus}$ at an expected level of precision of $\lesssim 45$%. We also predict a subset of $46.7^{+16.0}_{-6.0}$ planets may be accessible with dedicated high-contrast imagers on the next generation of ELTs including $4.9^{+4.7}_{-2.0}$ potentially imagable Earth-like planets. Lastly, we compare the results of our fiducial survey strategy to other foreseeable survey versions to quantify which strategy is optimized to reach the SLS-PS science goals. The results of our simulations are made available to the community on github., Comment: Accepted for publication in AJ. 19 figures including 15 interactive figures when viewed in Adobe Acrobat. Simulation results provided at https://github.com/r-cloutier/SLSPS_Simulations

The TRAPPIST-1, Proxima Centauri, and LHS 1140 systems are the most exciting prospects for future follow-up observations of potentially inhabited planets. All orbit nearby M-stars and are likely tidally locked in 1:1 spin-orbit states, which motivates the consideration of the effects that tidal locking might have on planetary habitability. On Earth, periods of global glaciation (snowballs) may have been essential for habitability and remote signs of life (biosignatures) because they are correlated with increases in the complexity of life and in the atmospheric oxygen concentration. In this paper we investigate the snowball bifurcation (sudden onset of global glaciation) on tidally locked planets using both an energy balance model and an intermediate-complexity global climate model. We show that tidally locked planets are unlikely to exhibit a snowball bifurcation as a direct result of the spatial pattern of insolation they receive. Instead they will smoothly transition from partial to complete ice coverage and back. A major implication of this work is that tidally locked planets with an active carbon cycle should not be found in a snowball state. Moreover, this work implies that tidally locked planets near the outer edge of the habitable zone with low CO2 outgassing fluxes will equilibrate with a small unglaciated substellar region rather than cycling between warm and snowball states. More work is needed to determine how the lack of a snowball bifurcation might affect the development of life on a tidally locked planet., Comment: Accepted at the Astrophysical Journal on 07/11/17

It has recently been proposed that Earth-like planets in the outer regions of the habitable zone experience unstable climates, repeatedly cycling between glaciated and deglaciated climatic states (Menou 2015). While this result has been confirmed and also extended to explain early Mars climate records (Haqq-Misra et al. 2016; Batalha et al. 2016), all existing work relies on highly idealized low-dimensional climate models. Here, we confirm that the phenomenology of climate cycles remains in 3D Earth climate models with considerably more degrees of freedom. To circumvent the computational barrier of integrating climate on Gyr timescales, we design a hybrid 0D-3D integrator which uses a general circulation model (GCM) as a short relaxation step along a long evolutionary climate sequence. We find that GCM climate cycles are qualitatively consistent with reported low-dimensional results. This establishes on a firmer ground the notion that outer habitable zone planets may be preferentially found in transiently glaciated states., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, accepted to ApJ (in press). Minor corrections in abstract

M-dwarfs are known to commonly host high-multiplicity planetary systems. Therefore M-dwarf planetary systems with a known transiting planet are expected to contain additional small planets ($r_p \le 4$ R$_{\oplus}$, $m_p \lesssim 20$ M$_{\oplus}$) that are not seen in transit. In this study we investigate the effort required to detect such planets using precision velocimetry around the sizable subset of M-dwarfs which are slowly rotating ($P_{\mathrm{rot}} \gtrsim 40$ days) and hence more likely to be inactive. We focus on the test case of GJ 1132. Specifically, we perform a suite of Monte-Carlo simulations of the star's radial velocity signal featuring astrophysical contributions from stellar jitter due to rotationally modulated active regions and keplarian signals from the known transiting planet and hypothetical additional planets not seen in transit. We then compute the detection completeness of non-transiting planets around GJ 1132 and consequently estimate the number of RV measurements required to detect those planets. We show that with 1 m s$^{-1}$ RV precision per measurement, only $\sim 50$ measurements are required to achieve a 50\% detection completeness to all non-transiting planets in the system and to planets which are potentially habitable. Throughout we advocate the use of Gaussian process regression as an effective tool for mitigating the effects of stellar jitter including stars with high activity. Given that GJ 1132 is representative of a large population of slowly rotating M-dwarfs, we conclude with a discussion of how our results may be extended to other systems with known transiting planets such as those which will be discovered with TESS., Comment: 19 pages (15 pages before appendices), 12 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal

The requirement that planetary systems be dynamically stable is often used to vet new discoveries or set limits on unconstrained masses or orbital elements. This is typically carried out via computationally expensive N-body simulations. We show that characterizing the complicated and multi-dimensional stability boundary of tightly packed systems is amenable to machine learning methods. We find that training an XGBoost machine learning algorithm on physically motivated features yields an accurate classifier of stability in packed systems. On the stability timescale investigated ($10^7$ orbits), it is 3 orders of magnitude faster than direct N-body simulations. Optimized machine learning classifiers for dynamical stability may thus prove useful across the discipline, e.g., to characterize the exoplanet sample discovered by the upcoming Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS). This proof of concept motivates investing computational resources to train algorithms capable of predicting stability over longer timescales and over broader regions of phase space., Comment: Accepted in ApJ letters. 7 pages, 3 figures

Massive giant planets, such as the ones being discovered by direct imaging surveys, likely experience the majority of their growth through a circumplanetary disc. We argue that the entropy of accreted material is determined by boundary layer processes, unlike the "cold-" or "hot-start" hypotheses usually invoked in the core accretion and direct collapse scenarios. A simple planetary evolution model illustrates how a wide range of radius and luminosity tracks become possible, depending on details of the accretion process. Specifically, the proto-planet evolves towards "hot-start" tracks if the scale-height of the boundary layer is $\gtrsim0.24$, a value not much larger than the scale-height of the circumplanetary disc. Understanding the luminosity and radii of young giant planets will thus require detailed models of circumplanetary accretion., Comment: 7 pages, 4 figures, to appear in ApJL

A recent ALMA image revealed several concentric gaps in the protoplanetary disk surrounding the young star HL Tau. We consider the hypothesis that these gaps are carved by planets, and present a general framework for understanding the dynamical stability of such systems over typical disk lifetimes, providing estimates for the maximum planetary masses. We collect these easily evaluated constraints into a workflow that can help guide the design and interpretation of new observational campaigns and numerical simulations of gap opening in such systems. We argue that the locations of resonances should be significantly shifted in massive disks like HL Tau, and that theoretical uncertainties in the exact offset, together with observational errors, imply a large uncertainty in the dynamical state and stability in such disks. This presents an important barrier to using systems like HL Tau as a proxy for the initial conditions following planet formation. An important observational avenue to breaking this degeneracy is to search for eccentric gaps, which could implicate resonantly interacting planets. Unfortunately, massive disks like HL Tau should induce swift pericenter precession that would smear out any such eccentric features of planetary origin. This motivates pushing toward more typical, less massive disks. For a nominal non-resonant model of the HL Tau system with five planets, we find a maximum mass for the outer three bodies of approximately 2 Neptune masses. In a resonant configuration, these planets can reach at least the mass of Saturn. The inner two planets' masses are unconstrained by dynamical stability arguments., Comment: Accepted in ApJ. 16 pages 8 figures

Planets in the habitable zone of lower-mass stars are often assumed to be in a state of tidally synchronized rotation, which would considerably affect their putative habitability. Although thermal tides cause Venus to rotate retrogradely, simple scaling arguments tend to attribute this peculiarity to the massive Venusian atmosphere. Using a global climate model, we show that even a relatively thin atmosphere can drive terrestrial planets' rotation away from synchronicity. We derive a more realistic atmospheric tide model that predicts four asynchronous equilibrium spin states, two being stable, when the amplitude of the thermal tide exceeds a threshold that is met for habitable Earth-like planets with a 1-bar atmosphere around stars more massive than 0.5-0.7Msun. Thus, many recently discovered terrestrial planets could exhibit asynchronous spin-orbit rotation, even with a thin atmosphere., Comment: Authors version of the manuscript including Supplementary Materials. Published in Science (February 6th, 2015). Title corrected

The carbon-silicate cycle regulates the atmospheric $CO_2$ content of terrestrial planets on geological timescales through a balance between the rates of $CO_2$ volcanic outgassing and planetary intake from rock weathering. It is thought to act as an efficient climatic thermostat on Earth and, by extension, on other habitable planets. If, however, the weathering rate increases with the atmospheric $CO_2$ content, as expected on planets lacking land vascular plants, the carbon-silicate cycle feedback can become severely limited. Here we show that Earth-like planets receiving less sunlight than current Earth may no longer possess a stable warm climate but instead repeatedly cycle between unstable glaciated and deglaciated climatic states. This has implications for the search for life on exoplanets in the habitable zone of nearby stars., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures

Although tidally-locked habitable planets orbiting nearby M-dwarf stars are among the best astronomical targets to search for extrasolar life, they may also be deficient in volatiles and water. Climate models for this class of planets show atmospheric transport of water from the dayside to the nightside, where it is precipitated as snow and trapped as ice. Since ice only slowly flows back to the dayside upon accumulation, the resulting hydrological cycle can trap a large amount of water in the form of nightside ice. Using ice sheet dynamical and thermodynamical constraints, I illustrate how planets with less than about a quarter the Earth's oceans could trap most of their surface water on the nightside. This would leave their dayside, where habitable conditions are met, potentially dry. The amount and distribution of residual liquid water on the dayside depend on a variety of geophysical factors, including the efficiency of rock weathering at regulating atmospheric CO2 as dayside ocean basins dry-up. Water-trapped worlds with dry daysides may offer similar advantages as land planets for habitability, by contrast with worlds where more abundant water freely flows around the globe., Comment: 20 pages, 4 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. Fig 1 and Fig 3 modified. Extra discussion included of the possibility of thicker nightside ice, caused by efficient heat advection by basal water flows

The atmospheres of hot Jupiters and other strongly-forced exoplanets are susceptible to a thermal instability in the presence of ohmic dissipation, weak magnetic drag and strong winds. The instability occurs in radiatively-dominated atmospheric regions when the ohmic dissipation rate increases with temperature faster than the radiative (cooling) rate. The instability domain covers a specific range of atmospheric pressures and temperatures, typically P ~ 3-300 mbar and T ~ 1500-2500K for hot Jupiters, which makes it a candidate mechanism to explain the dayside thermal "inversions" inferred for a number of such exoplanets. The instability is suppressed by high levels of non-thermal photoionization, in possible agreement with a recently established observational trend. We highlight several shortcomings of the instability treatment presented here. Understanding the emergence and outcome of the instability, which should result in locally hotter atmospheres with stronger levels of drag, will require global non-linear atmospheric models with adequate MHD prescriptions., Comment: 13 pages, 3 figures, accepted for publication in ApJL

We present a new version of our code for modeling the atmospheric circulation on gaseous exoplanets, now employing a "double-gray" radiative transfer scheme, which self-consistently solves for fluxes and heating throughout the atmosphere, including the emerging (observable) infrared flux. We separate the radiation into infrared and optical components, each with its own absorption coefficient, and solve standard two-stream radiative transfer equations. We use a constant optical absorption coefficient, while the infrared coefficient can scale as a powerlaw with pressure. Here we describe our new code in detail and demonstrate its utility by presenting a generic hot Jupiter model. We discuss issues related to modeling the deepest pressures of the atmosphere and describe our use of the diffusion approximation for radiative fluxes at high optical depths. In addition, we present new models using a simple form for magnetic drag on the atmosphere. We calculate emitted thermal phase curves and find that our drag-free model has the brightest region of the atmosphere offset by ~12 degrees from the substellar point and a minimum flux that is 17% of the maximum, while the model with the strongest magnetic drag has an offset of only ~2 degrees and a ratio of 13%. Finally, we calculate rates of numerical loss of kinetic energy at ~15% for every model except for our strong-drag model, where there is no measurable loss; we speculate that this is due to the much decreased wind speeds in that model., Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables, submitted to ApJ

The exoplanet GJ1214b presents an interesting example of compositional degeneracy for low-mass planets. Its atmosphere may be composed of water, super-solar or solar metallicity material. We present atmospheric circulation models of GJ1214b for these three compositions, with explicit grey radiative transfer and an optional treatment of MHD bottom drag. All models develop strong, superrotating zonal winds (~ 1-2 km/s). The degree of eastward heat advection, which can be inferred from secondary eclipse and thermal phase curve measurements, varies greatly between the models. These differences are understood as resulting from variations in the radiative times at the thermal photosphere, caused by separate molecular weight and opacity effects. Our GJ1214b models illustrate how atmospheric circulation can be used as a probe of composition for similar tidally-locked exoplanets in the mini-Neptune/waterworld class., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJL

Hot super-Earths likely possess minimal atmospheres established through vapor saturation equilibrium with the ground. We solve the hydrodynamics of these tenuous atmospheres at the surface of Corot-7b, Kepler 10b and 55 Cnc-e, including idealized treatments of magnetic drag and ohmic dissipation. We find that atmospheric pressures remain close to their local saturation values in all cases. Despite the emergence of strongly supersonic winds which carry sublimating mass away from the substellar point, the atmospheres do not extend much beyond the day-night terminators. Ground temperatures, which determine the planetary thermal (infrared) signature, are largely unaffected by exchanges with the atmosphere and thus follow the effective irradiation pattern. Atmospheric temperatures, however, which control cloud condensation and thus albedo properties, can deviate substantially from the irradiation pattern. Magnetic drag and ohmic dissipation can also strongly impact the atmospheric behavior, depending on atmospheric composition and the planetary magnetic field strength. We conclude that hot super-Earths could exhibit interesting signatures in reflection (and possibly in emission) which would trace a combination of their ground, atmospheric and magnetic properties., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in ApJL

We present scaling laws for advection, radiation, magnetic drag and ohmic dissipation in the atmospheres of hot giant exoplanets. In the limit of weak thermal ionization, ohmic dissipation increases with the planetary equilibrium temperature (T_eq >~ 1000 K) faster than the insolation power does, eventually reaching values >~ 1% of the insolation power, which may be sufficient to inflate the radii of hot Jupiters. At higher T_eq values still, magnetic drag rapidly brakes the atmospheric winds, which reduces the associated ohmic dissipation power. For example, for a planetary field strength B=10G, the fiducial scaling laws indicate that ohmic dissipation exceeds 1% of the insolation power over the equilibrium temperature range T_eq ~ 1300-2000 K, with a peak contribution at T_eq ~ 1600 K. Evidence for magnetically dragged winds at the planetary thermal photosphere could emerge in the form of reduced longitudinal offsets for the dayside infrared hotspot. This suggests the possibility of an anticorrelation between the amount of hotspot offset and the degree of radius inflation, linking the atmospheric and interior properties of hot giant exoplanets in an observationally testable way. While providing a useful framework to explore the magnetic scenario, the scaling laws also reveal strong parameter dependencies, in particular with respect to the unknown planetary magnetic field strength., Comment: 23 pages, 5 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are expected to detect gravitational waves (GWs) from individual low-redshift (z<1.5) compact supermassive (M>10^9 Msun) black hole (SMBH) binaries with orbital periods of approx. 0.1 - 10 yrs. Identifying the electromagnetic (EM) counterparts of these sources would provide confirmation of putative direct detections of GWs, present a rare opportunity to study the environments of compact SMBH binaries, and could enable the use of these sources as standard sirens for cosmology. Here we consider the feasibility of such an EM identification. We show that because the host galaxies of resolved PTA sources are expected to be exceptionally massive and rare, it should be possible to find unique hosts of resolved sources out to redshift z=0.2. At higher redshifts, the PTA error boxes are larger, and may contain as many as 100 massive-galaxy interlopers. The number of candidates, however, remains tractable for follow-up searches in upcoming wide-field EM surveys. We develop a toy model to characterize the dynamics and the thermal emission from a geometrically thin, gaseous disc accreting onto a PTA-source SMBH binary. Our model predicts that at optical and infrared frequencies, the source should appear similar to a typical luminous active galactic nucleus (AGN). However, owing to the evacuation of the accretion flow by the binary's tidal torques, the source might have an unusually low soft X-ray luminosity and weak UV and broad optical emission lines, as compared to an AGN powered by a single SMBH with the same total mass. For sources near z=1, the decrement in the rest-frame UV should be observable as an extremely red optical color. These properties would make the PTA sources stand out among optically luminous AGN, and could allow their unique identification., Comment: 17 pages with 5 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS

In contrast to the Earth, where frictional heating is typically negligible, we show that drag mechanisms could act as an important heat source in the strongly-forced atmospheres of some exoplanets, with the potential to alter the circulation. We modify the standard formalism of the atmospheric energy cycle to explicitly track the loss of kinetic energy and the associated frictional (re)heating, for application to exoplanets such as the asymmetrically heated "hot Jupiters" and gas giants on highly eccentric orbits. We establish that an understanding of the dominant drag mechanisms and their dependence on local atmospheric conditions is critical for accurate modeling, not just in their ability to limit wind speeds, but also because they could possibly change the energetics of the circulation enough to alter the nature of the flow. We discuss possible sources of drag and estimate the strength necessary to significantly influence the atmospheric energetics. As we show, the frictional heating depends on the magnitude of kinetic energy dissipation as well as its spatial variation, so that the more localized a drag mechanism is, the weaker it can be and still affect the circulation. We also use the derived formalism to estimate the rate of numerical loss of kinetic energy in a few previously published hot Jupiter models with and without magnetic drag and find it to be surprisingly large, at 5-10% of the incident stellar irradiation., Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures, 1 table, ApJ accepted; minor revisions

Due to the gravitational influence of density fluctuations driven by magneto-rotational instability in the gas disk, planetesimals and protoplanets undergo diffusive radial migration as well as changes in other orbital properties. The magnitude of the effect on particle orbits can have important consequences for planet formation scenarios. We use the local-shearing-box approximation to simulate an ideal, isothermal, magnetized gas disk with vertical density stratification and simultaneously evolve numerous massless particles moving under the gravitational field of the gas and the host star. We measure the evolution of the particle orbital properties, including mean radius, eccentricity, inclination, and velocity dispersion, and its dependence on the disk properties and the particle initial conditions. Although the results converge with resolution for fixed box dimensions, we find the response of the particles to the gravity of the turbulent gas correlates with the horizontal box size, up to 16 disk scale heights. This correlation indicates that caution should be exercised when interpreting local-shearing-box models involving gravitational physics of magneto-rotational turbulence. Based on heuristic arguments, nevertheless, the criterion L_h / R ~ O(1), where L_h is the horizontal box size and R is the distance to the host star, is proposed to possibly circumvent this conundrum. If this criterion holds, we can still conclude that magneto-rotational turbulence seems likely to be ineffective at driving either diffusive migration or collisional erosion under most circumstances., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Major expansion in Secs. 2.1 & 2.2 and new Sec. 4.5

The complexity of atmospheric modelling and its inherent non-linearity, together with the limited amount of data of exoplanets available, motivate model intercomparisons and benchmark tests. In the geophysical community, the Held-Suarez test is a standard benchmark for comparing dynamical core simulations of the Earth's atmosphere with different solvers, based on statistically-averaged flow quantities. In the present study, we perform analogues of the Held-Suarez test for tidally-locked exoplanets with the GFDL-Princeton Flexible Modeling System (FMS) by subjecting both the spectral and finite difference dynamical cores to a suite of tests, including the standard benchmark for Earth, a hypothetical tidally-locked Earth, a "shallow" hot Jupiter model and a "deep" model of HD 209458b. We find qualitative and quantitative agreement between the solvers for the Earth, tidally-locked Earth and shallow hot Jupiter benchmarks, but the agreement is less than satisfactory for the deep model of HD 209458b. Further investigation reveals that closer agreement may be attained by arbitrarily adjusting the values of the horizontal dissipation parameters in the two solvers, but it remains the case that the magnitude of the horizontal dissipation is not easily specified from first principles. Irrespective of radiative transfer or chemical composition considerations, our study points to limitations in our ability to accurately model hot Jupiter atmospheres with meteorological solvers at the level of ten percent for the temperature field and several tens of percent for the velocity field. Direct wind measurements should thus be particularly constraining for the models. Our suite of benchmark tests also provides a reference point for researchers wishing to adapt their codes to study the atmospheric circulation regimes of tidally-locked Earths/Neptunes/Jupiters., Comment: Accepted by MNRAS, 23 pages, 17 figures, 2 tables. No changes from previous version, except MNRAS wants no hyphen in the title. Sample movies of simulations are available at http://www.phys.ethz.ch/~kheng/fms/

Hot Jupiter atmospheres exhibit fast, weakly-ionized winds. The interaction of these winds with the planetary magnetic field generates drag on the winds and leads to ohmic dissipation of the induced electric currents. We study the magnitude of ohmic dissipation in representative, three-dimensional atmospheric circulation models of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b. We find that ohmic dissipation can reach or exceed 1% of the stellar insolation power in the deepest atmospheric layers, in models with and without dragged winds. Such power, dissipated in the deep atmosphere, appears sufficient to slow down planetary contraction and explain the typically inflated radii of hot Jupiters. This atmospheric scenario does not require a top insulating layer or radial currents that penetrate deep in the planetary interior. Circulation in the deepest atmospheric layers may actually be driven by spatially non-uniform ohmic dissipation. A consistent treatment of magnetic drag and ohmic dissipation is required to further elucidate the consequences of magnetic effects for the atmospheres and the contracting interiors of hot Jupiters., Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal

We report the detection of 24 micron variations from the planet-hosting upsilon Andromedae system consistent with the orbital periodicity of the system's innermost planet, upsilon And b. We find a peak-to-valley phase curve amplitude of 0.00130 times the mean system flux. Using a simple model with two hemispheres of constant surface brightness and assuming a planetary radius of 1.3 Jupiter radii gives a planetary temperature contrast of >900 K and an orbital inclination of >28 degrees. We further report the largest phase offset yet observed for an extrasolar planet: the flux maximum occurs ~80 degrees before phase 0.5. Such a large phase offset is difficult to reconcile with most current atmospheric circulation models. We improve on earlier observations of this system in several important ways: (1) observations of a flux calibrator star demonstrate the MIPS detector is stable to 10^-4 on long timescales, (2) we note that the background light varies systematically due to spacecraft operations, precluding use of this background as a flux calibrator (stellar flux measured above the background is not similarly affected), and (3) we calibrate for flux variability correlated with motion of the star on the MIPS detector. A reanalysis of our earlier observations of this system is consistent with our new result., Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 15 pages, 6 figures, 4 tables

White dwarfs inspiraling into black holes of mass $\MBH\simgt 10^5M_\odot$ are detectable sources of gravitational waves in the LISA band. In many of these events, the white dwarf begins to lose mass during the main observational phase of the inspiral. The mass loss starts gently and can last for thousands of orbits. The white dwarf matter overflows the Roche lobe through the $L_1$ point at each pericenter passage and the mass loss repeats periodically. The process occurs very close to the black hole and the released gas can accrete, creating a bright source of radiation with luminosity close to the Eddington limit, $L\sim 10^{43}$~erg~s$^{-1}$. This class of inspirals offers a promising scenario for dual detections of gravitational waves and electromagnetic radiation., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures. Minor changes. Accepted in MNRAS Letters on August 6 2010

Using a 3D GCM, we create dynamical model atmospheres of a representative transiting giant exoplanet, HD 209458b. We post-process these atmospheres with an opacity code to obtain transit radius spectra during the primary transit. Using a spectral atmosphere code, we integrate over the face of the planet seen by an observer at various orbital phases and calculate light curves as a function of wavelength and for different photometric bands. The products of this study are generic predictions for the phase variations of a zero-eccentricity giant planet's transit spectrum and of its light curves. We find that for these models the temporal variations in all quantities and the ingress/egress contrasts in the transit radii are small ($< 1.0$\%). Moreover, we determine that the day/night contrasts and phase shifts of the brightness peaks relative to the ephemeris are functions of photometric band. The $J$, $H$, and $K$ bands are shifted most, while the IRAC bands are shifted least. Therefore, we verify that the magnitude of the downwind shift in the planetary ``hot spot" due to equatorial winds is strongly wavelength-dependent. The phase and wavelength dependence of light curves, and the associated day/night contrasts, can be used to constrain the circulation regime of irradiated giant planets and to probe different pressure levels of a hot Jupiter atmosphere. We posit that though our calculations focus on models of HD 209458b similar calculations for other transiting hot Jupiters in low-eccentricity orbits should yield transit spectra and light curves of a similar character., Comment: Accepted to the Astrophysical Journal June 14, 2010; High-resolution figures and movies available upon request

The coalescence of a supermassive black hole binary (SMBHB) is thought to be accompanied by an electromagnetic (EM) afterglow, produced by the viscous infall of the surrounding circumbinary gas disk after the merger. It has been proposed that once the merger has been detected in gravitational waves (GWs) by LISA, follow-up EM searches for this afterglow can help identify the EM counterpart of the LISA source. Here we study whether the afterglows may be sufficiently bright and numerous to be detectable in EM surveys alone. The viscous afterglow, which lasts for years to decades for SMBHBs in LISA's sensitivity window, is characterized by rapid increases in both the bolometric luminosity and in the spectral hardness of the source. If quasar activity is triggered by the same major galaxy mergers that produce SMBHBs, then the afterglow could be interpreted as a signature of the birth of a quasar. Using an idealized model for the post-merger viscous spreading of the circumbinary disk and the resulting light curve, and using the observed luminosity function of quasars as a proxy for the SMBHB merger rate, we delineate the survey requirements for identifying such birthing quasars. If circumbinary disks have a high disk surface density and viscosity, an all-sky soft X-ray survey with a sensitivity of ~<3x10^-14 erg s^-1 cm^-2 and a time resolution of ~months could identify dozens of birthing quasars with sustained brightening rates of >10%/yr. If >1% of the X-ray emission is reprocessed into optical frequencies, birthing quasars could also be identified in optical transient surveys such as the LSST. Distinguishing a birthing quasar from other variable sources may be facilitated by the monotonic hardening of its spectrum, but will likely remain challenging. This reinforces the notion that joint EM-plus-GW observations offer the best prospects for identifying the EM signatures of SMBHB mergers., Comment: 27 pages, 5 figures. Updated references. Accepted to the Astronomical Journal, 140 (2010) 642-651