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Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation prediction in boreal spring and summer months, which contains a significant number of high-signal events, is scientifically challenging and prediction skill has remained poor for years. Tibetan Plateau (TP) spring observed surface ­temperatures show a lag correlation with summer precipitation in several remote regions, but current global land–atmosphere coupled models are unable to represent this behavior due to significant errors in producing observed TP surface temperatures. To address these issues, the Global Energy and Water Exchanges (GEWEX) program launched the “Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction” (LS4P) initiative as a community effort to test the impact of land temperature in high-mountain regions on S2S prediction by climate models: more than 40 institutions worldwide are participating in this project. After using an innovative new land state initialization approach based on observed surface 2-m temperature over the TP in the LS4P experiment, results from a multimodel ensemble provide evidence for a causal relationship in the observed association between the Plateau spring land temperature and summer precipitation over several regions across the world through teleconnections. The influence is underscored by an out-of-phase oscillation between the TP and Rocky Mountain surface temperatures. This study reveals for the first time that high-mountain land temperature could be a substantial source of S2S precipitation predictability, and its effect is probably as large as ocean surface temperature over global “hotspot” regions identified here; the ensemble means in some “hotspots” produce more than 40% of the observed anomalies. This LS4P approach should stimulate more follow-on explorations.

The Global Energy and Water Cycle Exchanges (GEWEX) project was created more than 30 years ago within the framework of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). The aim of this initiative was to address major gaps in our understanding of Earth’s energy and water cycles given a lack of information about the basic fluxes and associated reservoirs of these cycles. GEWEX sought to acquire and set standards for climatological data on variables essential for quantifying water and energy fluxes and for closing budgets at the regional and global scales. In so doing, GEWEX activities led to a greatly improved understanding of processes and our ability to predict them. Such understanding was viewed then, as it remains today, essential for advancing weather and climate prediction from global to regional scales. GEWEX has also demonstrated over time the importance of a wider engagement of different communities and the necessity of international collaboration for making progress on understanding and on the monitoring of the changes in the energy and water cycles under ever increasing human pressures. This paper reflects on the first 30 years of evolution and progress that has occurred within GEWEX. This evolution is presented in terms of three main phases of activity. Progress toward the main goals of GEWEX is highlighted by calling out a few achievements from each phase. A vision of the path forward for the coming decade, including the goals of GEWEX for the future, are also described.

The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) is a collection of atmospheric physical parameterizations for use in Earth system models and a framework that couples the physics to a host model’s dynamical core. A primary goal for this effort is to facilitate research and development of physical parameterizations and experimentation with physics-dynamics coupling methods, while simultaneously offering capabilities for use in numerical weather prediction (NWP) operations. The CCPP Framework supports configurations ranging from process studies to operational NWP as it enables host models to assemble the parameterizations in flexible suites. Framework capabilities include variability of scheme call order, ability to group parameterizations for calls in different parts of the host model allowing intervening computation or coupling to additional components, options to call some parameterizations more often than others, and automatic variable transformations. The CCPP Framework was developed by the Developmental Testbed Center and is distributed with a single-column model that can be used to test innovations and to conduct hierarchical studies in which physics and dynamics are decoupled. It is also an integral part of the Unified Forecast System, a community-based, coupled, comprehensive Earth modeling system designed to support research and be the source system for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational NWP applications. Finally, the CCPP Framework is under various stages of adoption by a number of other models in the wider community.

The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a world “that uses sound, relevant, and timely climate science to ensure a more resilient present and sustainable future for humankind.” This bold vision requires the climate science community to provide actionable scientific information that meets the evolving needs of societies all over the world. To realize its vision, WCRP has created five Lighthouse Activities to generate international commitment and support to tackle some of the most pressing challenges in climate science today. The overarching goal of the Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change is to develop an integrated capability to understand, attribute, and predict annual to decadal changes in the Earth system, including capabilities for early warning of potential high impact changes and events. This article provides an overview of both the scientific challenges that must be addressed, and the research and other activities required to achieve this goal. The work is organized in three thematic areas: (i) monitoring and modeling Earth system change; (ii) integrated attribution, prediction, and projection; and (iii) assessment of current and future hazards. Also discussed are the benefits that the new capability will deliver. These include improved capabilities for early warning of impactful changes in the Earth system, more reliable assessments of meteorological hazard risks, and quantitative attribution statements to support the Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update and State of the Climate reports issued by the World Meteorological Organization.

In this study, we coupled the two-layer one-dimensional Freshwater lake (FLake) model into the Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 to improve simulations of the effects of the Great Lakes on winter climate forecasts in that region. We first incorporated global lake fraction and depth data into the coupled CFS-FLake through a subgridding system. An interface between the CFS and FLake was then developed to link the two models for energy and water flux exchanges. The lake scheme was triggered only if the lake fraction was more than 10% in one CFS grid cell. We conducted ensemble retrospective forecasts with CFS-FLake for the period of 1997 through 2016 with 9 monthly leads. These forecasts were assessed to obtain a better understanding of the role of the Great Lakes in the climate system for winter, when significant lake-effect precipitation often occurs. Our results indicate that forecasts of lake surface temperature (LST), lake ice coverage (LIC), and precipitation with CFS-FLake were consistently better than those with CFS. The major improvements resulted from changes in land use type for the Great Lakes, from ocean and land in CFS to lakes in CFS-FLake. With the change from ocean to lake, LST mostly decreased with increasing LIC, resulting in lower surface heat and water fluxes to the atmosphere during the winter. However, with the change from land to lake, LST increased, leading to higher heat and water fluxes. In the meantime, precipitation predicted by CFS-FLake was reduced quite significantly over the Great Lakes compared to that by CFS. This reduction was caused by suppressed rising motion due to increased stability in the lower atmosphere as a result of lowered surface heat and water fluxes. The results from this study indicate that local and mesoscale surface and atmospheric processes significantly affect regional climate forecasts, and the coupled CFS-FLake model will have a broader impact on climate and hydrology research and forecasts.

Land-atmosphere coupling involves the interaction between the land-surface and the overlying atmospheric boundary layer, with effects on and by the free atmosphere above, and then with associated downstream impacts on clouds, convection and precipitation. We focus on the "terrestrial leg" of land-atmosphere coupling, that is, the near-surface land-atmosphere interaction where changing soil moisture affects the surface evapotranspiration. (The "atmospheric leg" of land-atmosphere coupling involves changes in surface fluxes and the effects on the atmospheric boundary layer, with those downstream impacts.) The change in surface evapotranspiration, or evaporative fraction, with changing soil moisture is an indicator of the strength of coupling between the soil/surface and the near-surface atmosphere, where for strong coupling, a given change in soil moisture yields a large change in the evaporative fraction, and for weak coupling, a given change in soil moisture yields a small change in the evaporative fraction. The strength of coupling depends on a number of different conditions and processes, i.e. the nature of the surface-layer turbulence, to what degree the surface is vegetated and by what type of vegetation, what the soil texture is, and how plant transpiration and soil hydraulic and soil thermal processes change with changing soil moisture. We examine this terrestrial leg of land-atmosphere coupling with an analytical development using the Penman-Monteith equation, then evaluate several years of fluxnet data sets from multiple sites to characterize these interactions on the local scale, contrasting different landscapes, e.g. grasslands versus forests, and other surface types. Initial findings show stronger coupling over forests.

To investigate the efficacy of silver diamine fluoride (SDF) with 5% fluoride varnish (FV) in treating cavitated caries in young children and to explore the association between SDF treatment and oral-health-related quality of life (OHRQoL).Children with active dentinal caries in primary teeth underwent treatment with 38% SDF and 5% FV at baseline and 4 months later. Treated lesions were assessed 4 and 8 months after baseline. Child-level analysis focused on classifying SDF treatment as completely successful if all of a child's treated lesions were arrested or incompletely successful if at least 1 lesion was not arrested. The Early Childhood Oral Health Impact Scale questionnaire was completed at second and third visits. Statistical analyses included descriptive and bivariate methods. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered significant.This pilot study enrolled 40 children with 239 caries lesions; mean age 40.2 ± 14.9 months and 45% male. Lesion arrest rates after 1 and 2 applications of SDF were 74.1% and 96.2%, respectively. Children who reportedly brushed twice daily were more likely to be in the completely successful group compared with those who brushed less (p = 0.006). Those in the completely successful group had a significantly lower mean baseline dmft score than those in the incompletely successful group (p = 0.048). No significant difference in OHRQoL was observed between the 2 groups.SDF with 5% FV is an effective approach to the management of early childhood caries; more than 1 application is recommended, along with regular follow up of patients and twice daily brushing. OHRQoL was not found to be affected by the level of success of SDF treatment.

We investigate the role of moisture transport and recycling in characterizing two recent drought events in Texas (2011) and the Upper Midwest (2012) by analyzing the precipitation, evapotranspiration, precipitable water, and soil moisture data from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) analysis. Next, we evaluate the CFSv2 forecasts in terms of their ability to capture different drought signals as reflected in the analysis data. Precipitation from both sources is partitioned into recycled and advected components using a moisture accounting–based precipitation recycling model. All four variables reflected drought signals through their anomalously low values, while precipitation and evapotranspiration had the strongest signals. Drought in Texas was dominated by the differences in moisture transport, whereas in the Upper Midwest, the absence of strong precipitation-generating mechanisms was a crucial factor. Reduced advection from the tropical and midlatitude Atlantic contributed to the drought in Texas. The Upper Midwest experienced reduced contributions from recycling, terrestrial sources, the midlatitude Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. In both cases, long-range moisture transport from oceanic sources was reduced during the corresponding drought years. June and August in Texas and July and August in the Upper Midwest were the driest months, and in both cases, drought was alleviated by the end of August. Moisture from terrestrial sources most likely contributed to alleviating drought intensity in such conditions, even with negative anomalies. The forecasts showed noticeable differences as compared to the analysis for multiple variables in both regions, which could be attributed to several factors as discussed in this paper.

Since the second phase of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2) was operationally implemented at NOAA/NCEP as part of the production suite in August 2014, developing the next phase of NLDAS has been a key focus of the NCEP and NASA NLDAS teams. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model is one of the four land surface models of the NLDAS system. The current operational NLDAS-2 uses version 4.0.3 (VIC403), the research NLDAS-2 used version 4.0.5 (VIC405), and the NASA Land Information System (LIS)-based NLDAS uses version 4.1.2.l (VIC412). The purpose of this study is to evaluate VIC403 and VIC412 and check if the latter version has better performance for the next phase of NLDAS. Toward this, a comprehensive evaluation was conducted, targeting multiple variables and using multiple metrics to assess the performance of different model versions. The evaluation results show large and significant improvements in VIC412 over the southeastern United States when compared with VIC403 and VIC405. In other regions, there are very limited improvements or even deterioration to some degree. This is partially due to 1) the sparseness of USGS streamflow observations for model parameter calibration and 2) a deterioration of VIC model performance in the Great Plains (GP) region after a model upgrade to a newer version. Overall, the model upgrade enhances model performance and skill scores for most parts of the continental United States; exceptions include the GP and western mountainous regions, as well as the daily soil moisture simulation skill, suggesting that VIC model development is on the right path. Further efforts are needed for scientific understanding of land surface physical processes in the GP, and a recalibration of VIC412 using reasonable reference datasets is recommended.

This paper evaluates multi-decadal simulations of the UCLA version of Climate Forecast System version 2, in which the default Noah land surface model has been replaced with the Simplified Simple Biosphere Model version-2. To examine the influence of the atmosphere–ocean (AO) interaction on the variability, two different simulations were conducted: one with interactive ocean component, and the other constrained by the prescribed sea surface temperature. We evaluate the mean seasonal climatology of precipitation and temperature, along with the model’s ability to reproduce atmospheric variability at different scales over the globe, including extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and long-term trends of global and hemispheric temperature and regional precipitation. Here, we particularly selected two monsoon regions, East Asia and West Africa, where the simulation of multi-decadal variations which has heretofore been a challenging task, to examine decadal variation of monsoon precipitation. In general, temperature anomaly trends were better captured than those of precipitation in both simulations. Results suggest that the AO interaction, represented as latent heat flux, contributes to improve reproducibility of global-wide climatology, extratropical modes of atmospheric variability, and variability in the multi-decadal climate simulation, as well as for inter-decadal variability of the East Asian summer monsoon.

Atmospheric models are known to underestimate land surface temperature and, by association, 2 m air temperature over dry arid regions during the day due to the treatment of the thermal roughness length also known as roughness length of heat. The thermal roughness length can be controlled by the Zilitinkevich parameter, known as Czil, which is a tunable parameter within the models. Three different scenarios with the WRF model are run to test the impact of the Czil parameter on the simulations using two land surface models: the Noah and Noah-MP models. In this study, a modified version of the Noah-MP model is tested, in which the Czil parameter, and, therefore, the thermal roughness length varies depending on the land cover and vegetation height. The model domain is over the United Arab Emirates (UAE) where the major land cover type is desert. The following configurations are tested: the Noah model with Czil = 0.1, Noah model with Czil = 0.5 and the Noah-MP model with Czil = 0.5 over desert. Results of 2 m air temperature are verified against three stations in the UAE. Mean gross error of the diurnal 2 m temperature was reduced by up to 1.48 and 1.54 °C in the 24 and 48 h forecasts, respectively. This reduced the cold bias in the model. This improvement in air temperature showed to improve the diurnal cycle of relative humidity at the three monitoring stations as well as the duration of the sea breeze in some cases.

The fifth Workshop on Systematic Errors (WSE) in weather and climate models was hosted by Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) on under the auspices of the Working Group on Numerical Experimentation (WGNE), jointly sponsored by the Commission of Atmospheric Sciences of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). This major event welcomed over 200 scientists from the weather and climate communities. The workshop primary goal was to increase the understanding of the nature and cause of systematic errors in numerical models across timescales. Out of 240 abstracts submitted to the workshop, 48 talks and 132 posters were presented.

This study compares four model systems in three configurations (LSM, LSM + GCM, and reanalysis) with global flux tower observations to validate states, surface fluxes, and coupling indices between land and atmosphere. Models clearly underrepresent the feedback of surface fluxes on boundary layer properties (the atmospheric leg of land–atmosphere coupling) and may overrepresent the connection between soil moisture and surface fluxes (the terrestrial leg). Models generally underrepresent spatial and temporal variability relative to observations, which is at least partially an artifact of the differences in spatial scale between model grid boxes and flux tower footprints. All models bias high in near-surface humidity and downward shortwave radiation, struggle to represent precipitation accurately, and show serious problems in reproducing surface albedos. These errors create challenges for models to partition surface energy properly, and errors are traceable through the surface energy and water cycles. The spatial distribution of the amplitude and phase of annual cycles (first harmonic) are generally well reproduced, but the biases in means tend to reflect in these amplitudes. Interannual variability is also a challenge for models to reproduce. Although the models validate better against Bowen-ratio-corrected surface flux observations, which allow for closure of surface energy balances at flux tower sites, it is not clear whether the corrected fluxes are more representative of actual fluxes. The analysis illuminates targets for coupled land–atmosphere model development, as well as the value of long-term globally distributed observational monitoring.

This study examines the performance of the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) surface layer parameterization scheme for strongly stable conditions over land in which turbulence is weak or even disappears because of high near-surface atmospheric stability. Cases of both deep snowpack and snow-free conditions are investigated. The results show that decoupling and excessive near-surface cooling may appear in the late afternoon and nighttime, manifesting as a severe cold bias of the 2-m surface air temperature that persists for several hours or more. Concurrently, because of negligible downward heat transport from the atmosphere to the land, a warm temperature bias develops at the first model level. The authors test changes to the stable surface layer scheme that include introduction of a stability parameter constraint that prevents the land–atmosphere system from fully decoupling and modification to the roughness-length formulation. GFS sensitivity runs with these two changes demonstrate the ability of the proposed surface layer changes to reduce the excessive near-surface cooling in forecasts of 2-m surface air temperature. The proposed changes prevent both the collapse of turbulence in the stable surface layer over land and the possibility of numerical instability resulting from thermal decoupling between the atmosphere and the surface. The authors also execute and evaluate daily GFS 7-day test forecasts with the proposed changes spanning a one-month period in winter. The assessment reveals that the systematic deficiencies and substantial errors in GFS near-surface 2-m air temperature forecasts are considerably reduced, along with a notable reduction of temperature errors throughout the lower atmosphere and improvement of forecast skill scores for light and medium precipitation amounts.

In this paper, we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.

Recently, a number of studies estimated evapotranspiration (ET) via variational assimilation of land surface temperature (LST) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Their unknown parameters are neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN) (that scales the sum of sensible and latent heat fluxes), and evaporative fraction (EF) (that represents the partitioning of available energy between sensible and latent heat fluxes). The variational data assimilation (VDA) approaches estimate CHN and EF by minimizing the difference between the MODIS LST observations and model estimates. The applicability of these studies is limited only to clear-sky conditions where MODIS LST data are available. Even when the sky is clear, they cannot robustly update the initial guess of EF (i.e., the a priori EF value) because of the low temporal resolution of MODIS LST data. This study overcomes these shortcomings by 1) using the random forest (RF) method to obtain a reasonable the a priori EF value, and 2) assimilating the all-weather LST data (which are obtained by merging thermal infrared and passive microwave observations) into the VDA approach. The VDA approach is applied to the Source Regions of Rivers (SRR) in southwest China with heavy cloud covers. Results show that the RF method obtains a reasonably accurate the a priori EF value. Compared to assimilating the MODIS LST product, assimilation of all-weather LST data lead to an improvement in the ET estimates, especially in regions with dense clouds. Comparison of ET estimates with the measurements at four sites (i.e., Dangxiong, Linzhi, Naqu, and Qomolangma) in the SRR shows that the VDA approach can accurately estimate ET in cloudy conditions. Finally, the three-cornered hat (TCH) method is employed to assess the relative uncertainty of ET estimates over the SRR.

In this chapter, the role of land-surface interactions with the atmosphere on sub-seasonal timescales is discussed in terms of the physical processes as they are currently understood, as well as the implications for improved predictions. This potential stems from the predictability provided by relatively slowly varying land-surface states like soil moisture, snow cover, and vegetation states. A history of the evolution of land-surface models at operational forecast centers is also provided. We conclude that significant improvements in forecast skill can be made in the short term by treating land and atmosphere as a coupled system throughout the model development process, applying available observations to better calibrate, validate, and initialize land-surface states. Sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction time scales are a potentially strong target for land-atmosphere feedbacks to affect the atmosphere.

Numerous studies have estimated surface heat fluxes by assimilating land surface temperature (LST) observations (as the state variable of land surface). A number of other studies have focused on the estimation of surface energy balance components by assimilating air temperature and specific humidity (as the state variables of atmosphere) into an atmospheric boundary layer model. This study advances these existing data assimilation approaches by the synergistic assimilation of LST, air temperature, and specific humidity into a coupled land surface-atmospheric boundary layer model. The unknown parameters are the neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN) and evaporative fraction (EF). CHN scales the sum of turbulent heat fluxes, and EF represents their partitioning. The developed approach is tested at the First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) site in the summer of 1987 and 1988. The results indicate that the new approach performs well in both wet and dry periods because it uses the implicit information in both the land surface and atmospheric state variables (i.e., LST, air temperature, and specific humidity). The root-mean-square-errors (RMSEs) of estimated daily sensible and latent heat fluxes are 21.80 Wm−2 (22.10 Wm−2) and 39.32 Wm−2 (36.89 Wm−2) for FIFE 87 (88). The corresponding mean-absolute-percentage-errors (MAPEs) are 22.16% (18.64%) and 13.98% (13.44%) for FIFE 87 (88). The new variational data assimilation (VDA) system outperforms the previous studies that assimilated either LST or air temperature/specific humidity. For FIFE 87, this study decreases the RMSEs of daily sensible and latent heat fluxes estimates by 12.5% and 24.4% compared to assimilating only LST, and by 15.2% and 26.7% compared to assimilating only air temperature and specific humidity. A similar improvement is obtained for FIFE 88. The atmospheric boundary layer height, potential temperature, and specific humidity estimates from the VDA approach are also in good agreement with the corresponding radiosonde observations, and can capture their variations during the course of the day.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the components of the land surface water budget in the four land surface models (Noah, SAC-Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, (VIC) Variable Infiltration Capacity Model, and Mosaic) applied in the newly implemented National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) operational and research versions of the North American Land Data Assimilation System version 2 (NLDAS-2). This work focuses on monthly and annual components of the water budget over 12 National Weather Service (NWS) River Forecast Centers (RFCs). Monthly gridded FLUX Network (FLUXNET) evapotranspiration (ET) from the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) of Germany, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) total runoff (Q), changes in total water storage (dS/dt, derived as a residual by utilizing MPI ET and USGS Q in the water balance equation), and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) observed total water storage anomaly (TWSA) and change (TWSC) are used as reference data sets. Compared to these ET and Q benchmarks, Mosaic and SAC (Noah and VIC) in the operational NLDAS-2 overestimate (underestimate) mean annual reference ET and underestimate (overestimate) mean annual reference Q. The multimodel ensemble mean (MME) is closer to the mean annual reference ET and Q. An anomaly correlation (AC) analysis shows good AC values for simulated monthly mean Q and dS/dt but significantly smaller AC values for simulated ET. Upgraded versions of the models utilized in the research side of NLDAS-2 yield largely improved performance in the simulation of these mean annual and monthly water component diagnostics. These results demonstrate that the three intertwined efforts of improving (1) the scientific understanding of parameterization of land surface processes, (2) the spatial and temporal extent of systematic validation of land surface processes, and (3) the engineering-oriented aspects such as parameter calibration and optimization are key to substantially improving product quality in various land data assimilation systems.

Four land surface models in uncoupled and coupled configurations are compared to observations of daily soil moisture from 19 networks in the conterminous United States to determine the viability of such comparisons and explore the characteristics of model and observational data. First, observations are analyzed for error characteristics and representation of spatial and temporal variability. Some networks have multiple stations within an area comparable to model grid boxes; for those it is found that aggregation of stations before calculation of statistics has little effect on estimates of variance, but soil moisture memory is sensitive to aggregation. Statistics for some networks stand out as unlike those of their neighbors, likely because of differences in instrumentation, calibration, and maintenance. Buried sensors appear to have less random error than near-field remote sensing techniques, and heat-dissipation sensors show less temporal variability than other types. Model soil moistures are evaluated using three metrics: standard deviation in time, temporal correlation (memory), and spatial correlation (length scale). Models do relatively well in capturing large-scale variability of metrics across climate regimes, but they poorly reproduce observed patterns at scales of hundreds of kilometers and smaller. Uncoupled land models do no better than coupled model configurations, nor do reanalyses outperform free-running models. Spatial decorrelation scales are found to be difficult to diagnose. Using data for model validation, calibration, or data assimilation from multiple soil moisture networks with different types of sensors and measurement techniques requires great caution. Data from models and observations should be put on the same spatial and temporal scales before comparison.

The current operational Noah land surface model (LSM) uses multi-year climatology of monthly green vegetation fraction (GVF) and the multi-year averages of land surface albedo data for several numerical weather predictions at National Centers for Environmental Predictions of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. However, these static GVF and albedo data can only prescribe the multiannual means and lack the ability to capture near real time (NRT) vegetation status and land surface condition. In this study, the impact of NRT GVF and albedo on Noah LSM (version 3.2) performances are examined against in situ measurements of surface net long wave radiation and net short wave radiation from 7 U.S. Surface Radiation Budget Network stations, and soil temperature and soil moisture from 9 USDA Soil Climate Analysis Network sites. Large differences between the NRT GVF/surface albedo and their climatological averages are found over the global, which have significant influences on Noah LSM simulations. With respect to in situ measurements, the Noah LSM simulation improvements from using the weekly GVF data are 19.3% for surface soil moisture, 9.3% for surface soil temperature. The benefits from the weekly GVF and monthly albedo can reach to 2.7 W m−2 for surface net long wave radiation and 2.6 W m−2 for surface net short wave radiation. The results suggest to Noah model developers and users that the NRT GVF and albedo should be used for better model performance.

Noah model physics options validated for the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR) are applied to investigate their ability in reproducing runoff at the catchment scale. Three sets of augmentations are implemented affecting descriptions of (i) turbulent and soil heat transport (Noah-H), (ii) soil water flow (Noah-W), and (iii) frozen ground processes (Noah-F). Five numerical experiments are designed with the three augmented versions, a control run with default model physics and a run with all augmentations (Noah-A). Each experiment is set up with vegetation and soil parameters from Weather Research and Forecasting data set, soil organic matter content from China Soil Database, 0.1° atmospheric forcing data from Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (Chinese Academy of Sciences), and initial equilibrium model states achieved using a single-year recurrent spin-up. In situ heat flux, soil temperature (Ts), and soil moisture (θ) profile measurements are available for point-scale assessment, whereas monthly streamflow is utilized for the catchment-scale evaluation. The comparison with point measurements shows that the augmentations invoked with Noah-H resolve issues with the heat flux and Ts simulation and Noah-W mitigates deficiencies in the θ simulation, while Noah-A yields improvements for both simulated surface energy and water budgets. In contrast, Noah-F has a minor effect. Also, at catchment scale, the best model performance is found for Noah-A leading to a base flow-dominated runoff regime, whereby the surface runoff contribution remains significant. This study highlights the need for a complete description of vertical heat and water exchanges to correctly simulate the runoff in the seasonally frozen and high-altitude SRYR at the catchment scale.

Soil moisture observations from seven observational networks (spanning portions of seven states) with different biome and climate conditions were used in this study to evaluate multimodel simulated soil moisture products. The four land surface models, including Noah, Mosaic, Sacramento soil moisture accounting (SAC), and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC), were run within phase 2 of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2), with a ⅛° spatial resolution and hourly temporal resolution. Hundreds of sites in Alabama, Colorado, Michigan, Nebraska, Oklahoma, West Texas, and Utah were used to evaluate simulated soil moisture in the 0–10-, 10–40-, and 40–100-cm soil layers. Soil moisture was spatially averaged in each state to reduce noise. In general, the four models captured broad features (e.g., seasonal variation) of soil moisture variations in all three soil layers in seven states, except for the 10–40-cm soil layer in West Texas and the 40–100-cm soil layer in Alabama, where the anomaly correlations are weak. Overall, Mosaic, SAC, and the ensemble mean have the highest simulation skill and VIC has the lowest simulation skill. The results show that Noah and VIC are wetter than the observations while Mosaic and SAC are drier than the observations, mostly likely because of systematic errors in model evapotranspiration.

In this second part of a two-part paper, the impacts of soil texture and vegetation type misclassification and their combined effect on soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and total runoff simulation are investigated using the Noah model. The results show that these impacts are significant for most regions and soil layers, although they vary depending on soil texture classification, vegetation type, and season. The use of site-observed soil texture classification and vegetation type in the model does not necessarily improve anomaly correlations and reduce mean absolute error for soil moisture simulations. Instead, results are mixed when examining all regions and soil layers. This is attributed to the compensation effects (e.g., effect of ill-calibrated model parameters), as Noah has been more or less calibrated with model-specified soil texture classification and vegetation type. The site-based analysis shows that Noah can reasonably simulate the variation of daily evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and total runoff when soil texture classification (vegetation type) is corrected from loam (forest) to clay (grasslands) or vice versa. This suggests that the performance of Noah can be further improved by tuning model parameters when site-observed soil texture and vegetation type are used.

The North American Soil Moisture Database (NASMD) was initiated in 2011 to provide support for developing climate forecasting tools, calibrating land surface models, and validating satellite-derived soil moisture algorithms. The NASMD has collected data from over 30 soil moisture observation networks providing millions of in situ soil moisture observations in all 50 states, as well as Canada and Mexico. It is recognized that the quality of measured soil moisture in NASMD is highly variable because of the diversity of climatological conditions, land cover, soil texture, and topographies of the stations, and differences in measurement devices (e.g., sensors) and installation. It is also recognized that error, inaccuracy, and imprecision in the data can have significant impacts on practical operations and scientific studies. Therefore, developing an appropriate quality control procedure is essential to ensure that the data are of the best quality. In this study, an automated quality control approach is developed using the North American Land Data Assimilation System, phase 2 (NLDAS-2), Noah soil porosity, soil temperature, and fraction of liquid and total soil moisture to flag erroneous and/or spurious measurements. Overall results show that this approach is able to flag unreasonable values when the soil is partially frozen. A validation example using NLDAS-2 multiple model soil moisture products at the 20-cm soil layer showed that the quality control procedure had a significant positive impact in Alabama, North Carolina, and west Texas. It had a greater impact in colder regions, particularly during spring and autumn. Over 433 NASMD stations have been quality controlled using the methodology proposed in this study, and the algorithm will be implemented to control data quality from the other ~1200 NASMD stations in the near future.

Surface water and energy budgets from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–U.S. Department of Energy (NCEP–DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP-II) Global Reanalysis 2 (GR2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) are compared here with each other and with available observations over the Mississippi River basin. The comparisons in seasonal cycle, interannual variation, and annual mean over a 31-yr period show that there are a number of noticeable differences and similarities in the large-scale basin averages. Warm season precipitation and runoff in the GR2 are too large compared to the observations, and seasonal surface water variation is small. By contrast, the precipitation in both NARR and CFSR is more reasonable and in better agreement with the observation, although the corresponding seasonal runoff is very small. The main causes of the differences in both surface parameterization and approach used in assimilating the observed precipitation datasets and snow analyses are then discussed. Despite the discrepancies in seasonal water budget components, seasonal energy budget terms in the three reanalyses are close to each other and to available observations. The interannual variations in both water and energy budgets are comparable. This study shows that the CFSR achieves a large improvement over the GR2, indicating that the CFSR dataset can be used in climate variability studies. Nonetheless, improved land surface parameterization schemes and data assimilation techniques are needed to depict the surface water and energy climates better, in particular, the variation in seasonal runoff.

Land–atmosphere (L-A) interactions are a main driver of Earth’s surface water and energy budgets; as such, they modulate near-surface climate, including clouds and precipitation, and can influence the persistence of extremes such as drought. Despite their importance, the representation of L-A interactions in weather and climate models remains poorly constrained, as they involve a complex set of processes that are difficult to observe in nature. In addition, a complete understanding of L-A processes requires interdisciplinary expertise and approaches that transcend traditional research paradigms and communities. To address these issues, the international Global Energy and Water Exchanges project (GEWEX) Global Land–Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) panel has supported “L-A coupling” as one of its core themes for well over a decade. Under this initiative, several successful land surface and global climate modeling projects have identified hot spots of L-A coupling and helped quantify the role of land surface states in weather and climate predictability. GLASS formed the Local Land–Atmosphere Coupling (LoCo) project and working group to examine L-A interactions at the process level, focusing on understanding and quantifying these processes in nature and evaluating them in models. LoCo has produced an array of L-A coupling metrics for different applications and scales and has motivated a growing number of young scientists from around the world. This article provides an overview of the LoCo effort, including metric and model applications, along with scientific and programmatic developments and challenges.