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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the Swedish Advertisers’ Association's role in the institutional development of Swedish international advertising during 1955–1972. Design/methodology/approach A qualitative analysis of business association sources is used to explore the institutional development of international advertising. Findings A new postwar paradigm that focused on a consumer-oriented brand ideology enabled marketing executives in the Swedish Advertisers’ Association to develop a new discourse on international advertising in Sweden, which then was institutionalized within a national network on export promotion. The institutionalization process was supported by a corporatist system typical of smaller export dependent postwar European economies. Research limitations/implications While based on a national case, this study points to the importance of understanding how advertising concepts are embedded within other economic, political and cultural systems than in those they originated in and how this contributes to a heterogenous implementation of similar ideas and practices. This study also illustrates how members can use their association to institutionalize a new discourse on marketing and network with other actors to enhance the use and reputation of its ideas and practices. Practical implications By highlighting the importance of analyzing both internal and external organizational relations, this study contributes to the research on history of marketing by making salient the importance of an institutional perspective to understand key processes in marketing. In practice neither the institutional perspective nor the explanatory power of discourse has received much attention, therefore the study results should be both interesting and valid for practitioners as well. Originality/value The study of the historical development of international advertising is limited and often descriptive. This study contributes to the literature by using a theoretical and methodological approach to make salient how the interaction between discourse, marketing associations and other collective actors propelled the institutionalization of international advertising within a specific national context.

Epilepsy surgery continues to be a recommended treatment for intractable (medication-resistant) epilepsy; however, 30-70% of epilepsy surgery patients can continue to have seizures. Surgical failures are often associated with incomplete resection or inaccurate localization of the epileptogenic zone. This retrospective study aims to improve surgical outcome through in-silico testing of surgical hypotheses through a personalized computational neurosurgery model created from individualized patient’s magnetoencephalography recording and MRI. The framework assesses the extent of the epileptic network and evaluates underlying spike dynamics, resulting in identification of one single brain volume as a candidate for resection. Dynamic-locked networks were utilized for virtual cortical resection. This in silico protocol was tested in a cohort of 24 pediatric patients with focal drug-resistant epilepsy who underwent epilepsy surgery. Out of 24 patients who were included in the analysis, 79% (19 out of 24) of the models agreed with the patient's clinical surgery outcome and 21% (5 out 24) were considered as model failures (Accuracy 0.79, Sensitivity 0.77, Specificity 0.82). Patients with unsuccessful surgery outcome typically showed a model cluster outside of the resected cavity, while those with successful surgery showed the cluster model within the cavity. Two of the model failures showed the cluster in the vicinity of the resected tissue and either a functional disconnection or lack of precision of the magnetoencephalography-MRI overlapping could explain the results. Two other cases were seizure free for one year but developed late recurrence. This is the first study that provides in-silico personalized protocol for epilepsy surgery planning using magnetoencephalography spike network analysis. This model could provide complementary information to the traditional pre-surgical assessment methods and increase the proportion of patients achieving seizure-free outcome from surgery.

We examine whether regionally differentiated macroprudential policies can address financial stability concerns and moderate house price differences in the UK. We disaggregate both the household sector and the housing stock in a two-region DSGE model with out of sync subnational housing markets and compare four policy types: standard monetary policy, leaning against the wind monetary policy, national macroprudential policy or one that targets region-specific LTV ratios. In terms of reducing variances of house prices, regionally differentiated macroprudential policy performs best, provided the policy authorities are concerned with stabilising output and house prices rather than simply minimising the variance of inflation.

We analyse volatility spillovers between the on- and offshore (CNY and CNH) Renminbi exchange rates towards the US dollar (USD). The volatility impulse response (VIRF) methodology introduced by Hafner and Herwatz (2006) is applied to several shocks between January 2012 and December 2019. Furthermore, we propose a novel way of estimating VIRFs based on Bayesian estimation of the MV-GARCH BEKK model. A simple Independence Chain Metropolis-Hastings algorithm allows drawing VIRFs in an efficient manner, allowing to analyse the significance and persistence of volatility shocks and associated volatility spillovers. The VIRF results show that the CNH exchange rate promptly reflects the global market demand and supply, while the CNY exchange rate reacts with a time lag. The VIRF results also show the existence of spillovers between the two markets as the co-volatility increases in response to shocks.

Many countries have imposed a set of non-pharmaceutical health policy interventions in an effort to slow the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of the interventions, drawing on evidence from the OECD countries. A special feature here is the mechanism that underlies the impact of the containment policies. To this end, a causal mediation analysis decomposing the total effect into a direct and an indirect effect is conducted. The key finding is a dual cause-effect channel. On the one hand, there is a direct effect of the non-pharmaceutical interventions on the various health variables. Beyond this, a quantitatively dominant indirect impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions operating via voluntary changes in social distancing is shown.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) has implemented numerous measures to cushion the impacts of the COVID-19 health crisis on the Chinese economy. Since the current monetary policy framework features a multi-instrument mix of liquidity tools and pricing signals, we employ a dynamic-factor modelling approach to derive a composite indicator of China’s monetary policy stance. Our quantitative assessment shows that the PBoC’s policy response to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has been swift and decisive. Specifically, our estimates reveal that the PBoC has implemented novel policy measures to ensure that commercial banks maintain liquidity access and credit provision during the COVID-19 crisis., Highlights • We construct a dynamic-factor-based indicator of China’s monetary policy stance. • Estimates reveal the PBoC’s novel policy measures during the COVID-19 crisis. • The Chinese monetary policy response to the pandemic has been swift and decisive. • The measures ensure liquidity access and credit provision by commercial banks.

We derive risk-neutral probability densities for future euro/Swiss franc exchange rates as implied by option prices. We find that the credibility of the Swiss franc floor decreased somewhat as the spot exchange rate approached the lower bound of 1.20 CHF per euro. We also compare the forecasting performance of a random walk benchmark model with an error-correction model (ECM) augmented with option-implied break probabilities of breaching the currency floor. We find some evidence that the augmented ECM has an informational advantage over the random walk when using one-month break probabilities. But we find that one-month option-implied densities cannot predict the entire range of exchange rate realizations.

There is growing evidence for neuronal hyperexcitability in Alzheimer’s disease. Hyperexcitability is associated with an increase in epileptiform activity and the disruption of inhibitory activity of interneurons. Interneurons fire at a high rate and are frequently associated with high-frequency oscillations in the gamma frequency band (30–150 Hz). It is unclear how hyperexcitability affects the organization of functional brain networks. A sample of 63 amnestic mild cognitive impairment patients underwent a magnetoencephalography resting-state recording with eyes closed. Twenty (31.75%) mild cognitive impairment patients had epileptiform activity. A cluster-based analysis of the magnetoencephalography functional connectivity revealed a region within the right temporal cortex whose global connectivity in the gamma frequency band was significantly reduced in patients with epileptiform activity relative to those without epileptiform activity. A subsequent seed-based analysis showed that this was largely due to weaker gamma band connectivity of this region with ipsilateral frontal and medial regions, and the upper precuneus area. In addition, this reduced functional connectivity was associated with higher grey matter atrophy across several cortical regions in the patients with epileptiform activity. These functional network disruptions and changes in brain physiology and morphology have important clinical implications as they may contribute to cognitive decline in mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease.

On 3 June 2020, the German government announced a EUR 130 billion fiscal stimulus package to stimulate market demand and jumpstart the economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in the spring of 2020. The most prominent measure of this package is an unconventional fiscal policy in the form of a temporary VAT rates cut for six months, from 1 July to 31 December 2020. Employing a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) framework, we study the efficiency of the VAT tax rates cut for ameliorating the consequences of the pandemic recession. The simulation of the calibrated DSGE model yields a tax policy-induced real GDP increase of about 0.3% points for 2020.

Background: Medically refractory epilepsy constitutes up to one-third of the epilepsy pediatric patients. Corpus callosotomy (CC) has been used for the treatment of medically refractory epilepsy in children with atonic seizures and generalized tonic–clonic (GTC) seizures. In this case series study, we are describing a novel technique for CC using the frameless navigation probe through a minicraniotomy. Methods: Thirteen pediatric patients with the diagnosis of medically refractory epilepsy predominantly GTC with drop attack who underwent extensive Phase I. An L-shape was done, then through a 4 × 3 cm craniotomy, we were able to open the interhemispheric fissure until the corpus callosum is visualized. The Stealth probe is then used to go down to the midline raphe which is followed anteriorly then traced posteriorly to the anterior border of the vein of Galen. Finally, the Stealth probe is used to confirm the completeness of the callosotomy. Results: The procedure was accomplished successfully with no intraoperative complications; mean surgical time is 3 h:07 m. The mean follow-up was 31.5 months. All patients achieved significant seizure control. No patients experienced worsening of their atonic seizures after surgery compared with their preoperative state; however, six patients achieved Engel Class I, four patients achieved Engel Class II, and three patients achieved Engel Class III. Conclusion: Complete CC using a frameless navigation probe is a novel and effective technique for the treatment of medically refractory epilepsy with a very good surgical and seizure outcomes, minimal neurological morbidity, minimal blood loss, and short OR time.

The recent upgrade of the People’s Bank of China’s monetary policy framework establishes a corridor system of interest rates. As the revamped policy arrangement now features a multiple-instrument mix of liquidity tools and pricing signals, we employ a dynamic factor modelling approach to derive an indicator of China’s monetary policy stance. The approach is based on the notion that comovements in several monetary policy instruments have a common element that can be captured by a single underlying, unobserved component. To clarify and interpret the derived index, we employ a baseline DSGE model that can be solved analytically and allows tracing of the expansionary and contractionary on-and-off phases of Chinese monetary policy.

This paper develops a new theoretical model with an asymmetric informal one‐sided exchange rate target zone, with an application to the Swiss franc following the removal of the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro in January 2015. We extend and generalize a standard target zone model by introducing perceived uncertainty about the lower edge of the band. We find that informal soft edge target zone bands lead to weaker honeymoon effects, wider target zone ranges, and higher exchange rate volatility than formal target zone bands. These results suggest that it would be beneficial for exchange rate policy intentions to be stated clearly in order to anchor exchange rate expectations and reduce exchange rate volatility. We also study how exchange rate dynamics can be characterized in models in which financial markets are aware of occasional changes in the policy regime. We show that expected changes in the central bank's exchange rate policy may lead to exchange rate oscillations, providing an additional source of exchange rate volatility, and to capture this it is important to take into account the possibility of regime changes in exchange rate policy.

We analyse the effects of macroprudential and monetary policies and their interactions using an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to New Zealand. We find that the main historical drivers of house prices are shocks specific to the housing sector. While our estimates show that monetary policy has large spillover effects on house prices, it does not appear to have been a major driver of house prices in New Zealand. We consider macroprudential policies, including the loan-to-value restrictions that have been implemented in New Zealand. We find that loan-to-value restrictions reduce house prices with negligible effects on consumer prices, suggesting that they can be used without derailing monetary policy. We estimate that the loan-to-value restrictions imposed in New Zealand in 2013 reduced house prices by 3.8 per cent and that greater forward guidance on their duration would have made them more effective.

The recent increase in China’s house prices at the national level masks tremendous variation at the city level – a feature largely overlooked in the macroprudential literature. This paper measures the evolving heterogeneity in China’s house price dynamics across 70 major cities and assesses its relationship with housing market characteristics. We gauge the heterogeneity of house price dynamics using a novel regime-switching modelling approach to estimate the time-varying patterns of China’s city-level housing price synchronization. The estimates indicate an increasing synchronization leading up to 2015, and a decoupling pattern thereafter, which is associated to the heterogeneous strength of regional macroprudential policies. After sorting city-level housing prices into four clusters sharing similar cyclical features, we document high synchronization within clusters, but low synchronization among them. The empirical evidence suggests that differentials in the growth of population, income, and air quality are relevant explanatory factors of housing price synchronization among cities.

In the wake of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, the macroeconomic discussion has returned to the topic of proactive macroprudential policies. The use of loan‐to‐value (LTV) policies to curb booming property markets has long been used by Hong Kong's monetary authorities to actively manage the potential fallout from housing price bubbles. In 2013 the Hong Kong authorities supplemented the LTV policies with property transfer taxes. Here, we also analyse the merits of these tax‐based macroprudential policies in the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework. Furthermore, we calibrate the impact of both countercyclical macroprudential policies employed in conjunction with forward guidance. We conclude that both policy approaches can limit the pace of housing price increases. As regards the comparison of LTV and tax‐based measures, it turns out that property acquisition taxes are more effective.

This paper adds to the literature on wealth effects on consumption by disentangling house price effects on consumption for mainland China. In a stochastic modelling framework, the riskiness, rate of increase and persistence of house price movements have different implications for the consumption/housing ratio. We exploit the geographical variation in property prices by using a quarterly city-level panel dataset for the period 1998Q1 – 2009Q4 and rely on a panel error correction model. Overall, the results suggest a significant long run impact of property prices on consumption. They also broadly confirm the predictions from the theoretical model.

PURPOSE Magnetoencephalography (MEG) is often incorporated into the presurgical work-up of children with pharmacoresistant epilepsy. There is growing literature on its role in improving selection for epilepsy surgery, particularly when brain MRI is "non-lesional" or in patients with recurrence or intractable seizures after epilepsy surgery. There are, however, no reports on the extrapolation of its role in the presurgical decision-making process of infants. METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of infants who underwent MEG over a 10-year period at our center for presurgical work-up. We reviewed medical records to ascertain seizure history, work-up procedures including brain MRI and scalp EEG, and in the case of surgery, intracranial recordings, operative notes, and follow-up outcomes. RESULTS We identified 31 infants (

Renminbi internationalisation has brought about an active offshore market where the exchange rate frequently diverges from the onshore market. Using extended GARCH models, we explore the role of fundamentals, global factors and policies related to renminbi internationalisation in driving the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates. Differences in the liquidity of the two markets play an important role in explaining the level of the differential, while rises in global risk aversion tend to increase the differential's volatility. On the policy front, measures permitting cross-border renminbi outflows have a particularly discernible impact in reducing the volatility of the pricing gap between the two markets.

The risk of catastrophes is one of the greatest threats of climate change. Yet, conventional assumptions shared by many integrated assessment models such as DICE lead to the counterintuitive result that higher concern about climate change risks does not lead to stronger near-term abatement efforts. This paper examines whether this result still holds in a refined DICE model that employs the Epstein–Zin utility specification and that is fully coupled with a dynamic tipping point model describing the evolution of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). Risk is captured by the possibility of a future collapse of the circulation and it is nourished by fat-tailed uncertainty about climate sensitivity. This uncertainty is assumed to resolve in the middle of the second half of this century and the near-term abatement efforts, which are undertaken before that point of time, can be adjusted afterwards. These modelling choices allow posing the question of whether aversion to this specific tipping point risk has a significant effect on near-term policy efforts. The simulations, however, provide evidence that it has little effect. For the more likely climate sensitivity values, a collapse of the circulation would occur in the more distant future. In this case, acting after learning can prevent the catastrophe, implying the remarkable insensitivity of the near-term policy to risk aversion. For the rather unlikely and high climate sensitivity values, the expected damage costs are not great enough to justify taking very costly measures to safeguard the THC. Our simulations also provide some indication that risk aversion might have some effect on near-term policy, if inertia limiting the speed of decarbonisation is accounted for. As it is highly uncertain how restrictive this kind of inertia will be, future research might investigate the effects of risk aversion if additional uncertainty about inertia is considered.

In line with the deepening of the derivative foreign-exchange market in Hong Kong, we recover risk-neutral probability densities for future US dollar/offshore renminbi exchange rates as implied by exchange rate option prices. The risk-neutral densities (RND) approach is shown to be useful in analyzing market sentiment and risk aversion in the renminbi market. We include a forecasting exercise that confirms market participants were able to forecast the shape of the actual densities correctly for short horizons, even if their exact location could not be determined.