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Purpose: To develop machine learning (ML) models to predict, at baseline, treatment outcomes at month 9 in patients with neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) receiving faricimab. Design: Retrospective proof of concept study. Participants: Patients enrolled in the phase II AVENUE trial (NCT02484690) of faricimab in nAMD. Methods: Baseline characteristics and spectral domain-OCT (SD-OCT) image data from 185 faricimab-treated eyes were split into 80% training and 20% test sets at the patient level. Input variables were baseline age, sex, best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), central subfield thickness (CST), low luminance deficit, treatment arm, and SD-OCT images. A regression problem (BCVA) and a binary classification problem (reduction of CST by 35%) were considered. Overall, 10 models were developed and tested for each problem. Benchmark classical ML models (linear, random forest, extreme gradient boosting) were trained on baseline characteristics; benchmark deep neural networks (DNNs) were trained on baseline SD-OCT B-scans. Baseline characteristics and SD-OCT data were merged using 2 approaches: model stacking (using DNN prediction as an input feature for classical ML models) and model averaging (which averaged predictions from the DNN using SD-OCT volume and from classical ML models using baseline characteristics). Main Outcome Measures: Treatment outcomes were defined by 2 target variables: functional (BCVA letter score) and anatomical (percent decrease in CST from baseline) outcomes at month 9. Results: The best-performing BCVA regression model with respect to the test coefficient of determination (R2) was the linear model in the model-stacking approach with R2 of 0.31. The best-performing CST classification model with respect to test area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) was the benchmark linear model with AUROC of 0.87. A post hoc analysis showed the baseline BCVA and the baseline CST had the most effect in the all-model prediction for BCVA regression and CST classification, respectively. Conclusions: Promising signals for predicting treatment outcomes from baseline characteristics were detected; however, the predictive benefit of baseline images was unclear in this proof-of-concept study. Further testing and validation with larger, independent datasets is required to fully explore the predictive capacity of ML models using baseline imaging data. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Purpose: Neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) shows variable treatment response to intravitreal anti-VEGF. This analysis compared the potential of different artificial intelligence (AI)-based machine learning models using OCT and clinical variables to accurately predict at baseline the best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 9 months in response to ranibizumab in patients with nAMD. Design: Retrospective analysis. Participants: Baseline and imaging data from patients with subfoveal choroidal neovascularization secondary to age-related macular dengeration. Methods: Baseline data from 502 study eyes from the HARBOR (NCT00891735) prospective clinical trial (monthly ranibizumab 0.5 and 2.0 mg arms) were pooled; 432 baseline OCT volume scans were included in the analysis. Seven models, based on baseline quantitative OCT features (Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [Lasso] OCT minimum [min], Lasso OCT 1 standard error [SE]); on quantitative OCT features and clinical variables at baseline (Lasso min, Lasso 1SE, CatBoost, RF [random forest]); or on baseline OCT images only (deep learning [DL] model), were systematically compared with a benchmark linear model of baseline age and BCVA. Quantitative OCT features were derived by a DL segmentation model on the volume images, including retinal layer volumes and thicknesses, and retinal fluid biomarkers, including statistics on fluid volume and distribution. Main Outcome Measures: Prognostic ability of the models was evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and median absolute error (MAE; letters). Results: In the first cross-validation split, mean R2 (MAE) of the Lasso min, Lasso 1SE, CatBoost, and RF models was 0.46 (7.87), 0.42 (8.43), 0.45 (7.75), and 0.43 (7.60), respectively. These models ranked higher than or similar to the benchmark model (mean R2, 0.41; mean MAE, 8.20 letters) and better than OCT-only models (mean R2: Lasso OCT min, 0.20; Lasso OCT 1SE, 0.16; DL, 0.34). The Lasso min model was selected for detailed analysis; mean R2 (MAE) of the Lasso min and benchmark models for 1000 repeated cross-validation splits were 0.46 (7.7) and 0.42 (8.0), respectively. Conclusions: Machine learning models based on AI-segmented OCT features and clinical variables at baseline may predict future response to ranibizumab treatment in patients with nAMD. However, further developments will be needed to realize the clinical utility of such AI-based tools. Financial Disclosure(s): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.