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To examine the risk of hematologic malignancies in older adults with ankylosing spondylitis (AS).We used US Medicare data from January 1, 1999, to December 31, 2010, to identify a population-based cohort of beneficiaries with AS. We also included beneficiaries with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) as disease controls and beneficiaries without AS or IBD as unaffected controls. We excluded those treated with tumor necrosis factor inhibitors in this period. We followed up each group for new diagnosis claims for hematologic malignancies until September 30, 2015.We included 12,451 beneficiaries with AS, 234,905 with IBD, and 10,975,340 unaffected controls, with a mean follow-up of 9.9, 9.3, and 8.0 years, respectively. We identified 297 hematologic malignancies in the AS group, 4538 malignancies in the IBD group, and 128,239 malignancies in unaffected controls. The standardized incidence ratio in AS vs unaffected controls was 1.39 (95% CI, 1.05 to 1.61) for non-Hodgkin lymphoma, 1.50 (95% CI, 1.17 to 1.92) for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.12 to 2.06) for multiple myeloma. Risks of acute myeloid leukemia and chronic myeloid leukemia were not elevated in AS, and there were too few cases of Hodgkin lymphoma to compute risks. Risks were comparable to those of beneficiaries with IBD. We also performed a systematic literature review of the risk of hematologic malignancy in AS, focusing on age associations, which have not been previously examined. We identified 21 studies in the systematic literature review, which included mainly young or middle-aged patients. Results suggested that AS was largely not associated with an increased risk of hematologic malignancies. Two cohort studies reported an increased risk of multiple myeloma in AS.The risks of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and multiple myeloma are increased among elderly patients with AS.

To examine the relationship between vertebral trabecular bone mineral density (tBMD), vertebral strength, and syndesmophytes in patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) using quantitative computed tomography (QCT).We performed QCT of the spine to measure syndesmophytes and tBMD in 5 vertebrae (T11-L3) in 61 patients with AS. Finite element analysis was performed to measure vertebral strength in compressive overload, including in trabecular and cortical compartments. In cross-sectional analyses, we examined associations of syndesmophyte height with tBMD and vertebral strength in each vertebra. In 33 patients followed up for 2 years, we investigated whether baseline tBMD and vertebral strength predicted syndesmophyte growth in the same vertebra, and vice versa.In the cross-sectional analyses, 126 vertebrae had bridging, 77 vertebrae had nonbridging syndesmophytes, and 83 vertebrae had no syndesmophytes. There were strong inverse associations between syndesmophyte height and tBMD, total strength, and trabecular strength only among bridged vertebrae. In the longitudinal analysis, nonbridged vertebrae with low tBMD (adjusted β = -0.01 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) -0.019, -0.0012]) and low strength (adjusted β = -0.0003 [95% CI -0.0004, -0.0002]) had more syndesmophyte growth over time. Similar associations were absent among bridged vertebrae. Conversely, vertebrae with bridging at baseline had a significant loss in percent tBMD over time (adjusted β = -0.001 [95% CI -0.0017, -0.0004]).Associations between syndesmophytes and vertebral density and strength in AS differ between bridged and nonbridged vertebrae. Among nonbridged vertebrae, low tBMD and strength are associated with syndesmophyte growth. Bridging is associated with large subsequent losses in tBMD, possibly due to mechanical offloading.

BACKGROUND Advances in treatment over the past 20 years has resulted in improved control of rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but whether there has been a decrease in permanent work disability associated with RA in the U.S. has not been examined. METHODS Medicare data from 1999 to 2015 were used to identify beneficiaries age 20 to 59 with RA who became eligible for Medicare coverage under Social Security Disability Insurance. Diagnosis of RA was based on physician claims in the first year of enrollment. Annual rates of enrollment were sex- and age-standardized to the 2000 U.S. POPULATION RESULTS The study included 97,787 beneficiaries with RA and Social Security Disability Insurance across all years. Medicare enrollment was 26.0 per million in 1999 and 26.0 per million in 2015. Rates increased following the Great Recession of 2008-09 before returning to pre-recession levels. There was no linear trend over time after adjusting for the annual national unemployment rate (relative risk 0.99 per year; 95% confidence interval 0.99, 1.00; p = 0.69). Risks of work disability were much higher among workers over age 50. CONCLUSION Based on Medicare enrollment by recipients of Social Security Disability Insurance, there was no decrease in permanent work disability among young and middle-age workers with RA in the U.S. between 1999 and 2015.

ObjectiveIndividuals with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) have a greater cardiovascular (CV) risk than those in the general population. The effect of tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) on CV risk, including on the development of hypertension (HTN), remains unclear, with some data suggesting higher risk. We assessed the association of TNFi use with incident HTN in a longitudinal AS cohort.MethodsAdults with AS enrolled in a prospective cohort in 2002–2018 were examined every 4–6 months. TNFi use during the preceding 6 months was ascertained at each study visit. We defined HTN by patient-reported HTN, antihypertensive medication use, or, on 2 consecutive visits, systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥ 140 mmHg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg. We evaluated the association between TNFi use and the development of HTN with marginal structural models, estimated by inverse probability-of-treatment weighting, to account for time-dependent confounders and informative censoring. Potential confounders included age, sex, race, site, nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drug use, and disease activity.ResultsWe included 630 patients without baseline HTN and with at least 1 year of follow-up. Of these, 72% were male, mean age was 39 ± 13 years, and 43% used TNFi at baseline. On follow-up (median 5 yrs), 129 developed incident HTN and 163 started on TNFi during follow-up. TNFi use was not associated with incident HTN (adjusted HR 1.10, 95% CI 0.83–1.37).ConclusionIn our prospective AS cohort, TNFi use was not significantly associated with incident HTN.

Rates of total knee arthroplasty (TKA), one of the most common surgical procedures, vary markedly across regions, even after accounting for knee arthritis prevalence.

Objective To examine health care utilization among patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA) and assess whether utilization differs among residents of regions with high and low rates of total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Methods This was a retrospective cohort study of US Medicare beneficiaries with knee OA enrolled from 2005 to 2010. Health care utilization data for knee complaints, including rates of physician visits, physical therapy, knee injections, and arthroscopy, were abstracted from claims files until time of TKA or the end of the study in 2015. Utilization was compared among beneficiaries who lived in regions with high or low rates of TKA. Results Among 988,570 beneficiaries with knee OA, 327,499 (33.1%) underwent TKA during follow-up (median 5.6 years). Higher frequency of visits for knee complaints was associated with increased risk of TKA, whereas physical therapy, specialist care, and intraarticular treatments were associated with lower risk of TKA. Frequency of TKA varied from 26.4% in the lowest regional TKA rate quintile to 42.1% in the highest regional TKA rate quintile. Rates of physician visits, physical therapy, specialist care, and treatment with intraarticular injections varied inversely with regional TKA rate quintile. For example, 32.5% of beneficiaries in the lowest region quintile and 23.6% in the highest region quintile underwent physical therapy. Across all quintiles, physical therapy was associated with lower TKA rates. Conclusion Dedicated nonsurgical OA care was infrequently used to treat elderly Americans with knee OA. Nonsurgical care was more common in regions with low TKA rates, suggesting reciprocal emphasis on medical treatment compared to surgical treatment across regions.

ObjectiveSacroiliac (SI) joint and spinal inflammation are characteristic of ankylosing spondylitis (AS), but some patients with AS have been identified who have discordant radiographic disease. We studied an AS subgroup with long-standing disease and fused SI joints. We identified factors associated with discrepant degrees of radiographic damage between the SI joints and spine.MethodsFrom the Prospective Study of Outcomes in AS (PSOAS) cohort, patients with a disease duration ≥ 20 years and fused SI joints were included in a nested case-control design. Patients with and without syndesmophytes were used as cases and controls for analysis. We used classification and regression tree (CART) analysis to determine risk factors for syndesmophytes presence and reexamined the validity of the risk factors using univariable logistic regression models.ResultsThere were 354 patients in the subgroup, 23 of whom lacked syndesmophytes. CART analysis showed females were less likely to have syndesmophytes. The next important predictor was age of symptom onset in males, with age of onset ≤ 16 years being less likely to have syndesmophytes. Univariable analysis confirmed females were less likely to have syndesmophytes (odds ratio [OR] 0.17, 95% CI 0.07-0.41). Syndesmophyte presence was associated with HLA-B27 positivity (P= 0.03) and age of symptom onset > 16 years old (OR 2.72, 95% CI 1.15-6.45). All 23 patients who lacked syndesmophytes were HLA-B27 positive.ConclusionUsing CART analysis and univariable modeling, women were less likely to have syndesmophytes despite advanced disease duration and SI joint disease. Patients with younger age of symptom onset were less likely to have syndesmophytes. All patients without syndesmophytes were HLA-B27 positive, indicating HLA-B27 positivity may be more associated with SI disease than spinal disease.

ObjectiveTo develop recommendations for cardiovascular risk (CVR) management in gout, vasculitis, systemic sclerosis (SSc), myositis, mixed connective tissue disease (MCTD), Sjögren’s syndrome (SS), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and antiphospholipid syndrome (APS).MethodsFollowing European League against Rheumatism (EULAR) standardised procedures, a multidisciplinary task force formulated recommendations for CVR prediction and management based on systematic literature reviews and expert opinion.ResultsFour overarching principles emphasising the need of regular screening and management of modifiable CVR factors and patient education were endorsed. Nineteen recommendations (eleven for gout, vasculitis, SSc, MCTD, myositis, SS; eight for SLE, APS) were developed covering three topics: (1) CVR prediction tools; (2) interventions on traditional CVR factors and (3) interventions on disease-related CVR factors. Several statements relied on expert opinion because high-quality evidence was lacking. Use of generic CVR prediction tools is recommended due to lack of validated rheumatic diseases-specific tools. Diuretics should be avoided in gout and beta-blockers in SSc, and a blood pressure target ConclusionThese recommendations can guide clinical practice and future research for improving CVR management in rheumatic and musculoskeletal diseases.

Tumor necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFis) have revolutionized the management of ankylosing spondylitis (AS); however, the lack of notable clinical responses in approximately one-half of patients suggests important heterogeneity in treatment response. Identifying patients likely to respond or not respond to TNFis could provide opportunities to personalize treatment strategies.To develop models of the probability of short-term response to TNFi treatment in individual patients with active AS.This is a retrospective cohort study using data of the TNFi group (ie, treatment group) from 10 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of TNFi treatment among patients with active AS, conducted from 2002 to 2016. Participants were adult patients with active AS who failed nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Included RCTs were phase 3 and 4 studies that assessed the efficacy of an originator TNFi at week 12 and/or week 24, either compared with placebo or an antirheumatic drug. The cohort was divided into a training and a testing set. Data analysis was conducted from July 1, 2019, to November 30, 2020.All included patients received an originator TNFi for at least 12 weeks.Outcomes included major response and no response based on the change of AS Disease Activity Score at 12 weeks. Machine learning algorithms were applied to estimate the probability of having major response and no response for individual patients.The study included 1899 participants from 10 trials. The training set included 1207 individuals (mean [SD] age, 39 [12] years; 908 [75.2%] men), of whom 407 (33.7%) had major response and 414 (34.3%) had no response. In the reduced logistic regression models, accuracy was 0.74 for major response and 0.75 for no response. The probability of major response increased with higher C-reactive protein (CRP) level, patient global assessment (PGA), and Bath AS Disease Activity Index (BASDAI) question 2 score and decreased with higher body mass index (BMI) and Bath AS Functional Index (BASFI) score. The probability of no response increased with age and BASFI score, and decreased with higher CRP level, BASDAI question 2 score, and PGA. In the testing set (692 participants; mean [SD] age, 38 [11] years; 533 [77.0%] men), models demonstrated moderate to high accuracy.In this cohort study, the probability of initial response to TNFi was predicted from baseline variables, which may facilitate personalized treatment decision-making.

Objective: Nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) increase blood pressure and potentially cardiovascular burden, which may limit their use in ankylosing spondylitis (AS). Our objective was to determine the association of NSAID use with incident hypertension in a longitudinal AS cohort. Methods: Adults with AS were enrolled in a prospective cohort study of patient outcomes and examined every 4–6 months. Hypertension was defined by patient-reported hypertension; antihypertensive medication use; or, on 2 consecutive visits, systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg. Continuous NSAID use was dichotomized based on the validated NSAID index. We assessed the association of NSAID use as a time-varying exposure with the incidence of hypertension using Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the 1,282 patients in the cohort, 628 patients without baseline hypertension had at least 1 year of follow-up and were included in the analysis. Of these, 72% were male, the mean age at baseline was 39 ± 13 years, and 200 patients used NSAIDs continuously. On follow-up, 129 developed incident hypertension. After controlling for other variables, continuous NSAID use was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.12 for incident hypertension (95% confidence interval 1.04–1.20), compared to noncontinuous or no use. The association did not differ in subgroups defined by age, body mass index, biologic use, or disease activity. Conclusion: In our prospective, longitudinal AS cohort, continuous NSAID use was associated with a 12% increased risk for the development of incident hypertension, as compared to noncontinuous or no NSAID use.

Objective A North American registry of JDM patients was examined for frequency of and factors associated with corticosteroid discontinuation, complete clinical response and remission. Methods We evaluated probability of achieving final corticosteroid discontinuation, complete clinical response and remission in 307 JDM patients by Weibull time-to-event modelling; conditional probability of complete clinical response and remission using Bayesian network modelling; and significant predictors with multivariable Markov chain Monte-Carlo Weibull extension models. Results The probability of corticosteroid discontinuation was 56%, complete clinical response 38% and remission 30% by 60 months after initial treatment in 105 patients. The probability of remission was conditional on corticosteroid discontinuation and complete clinical response. Photosensitivity, contractures and a longer time to complete clinical response were predictive of the time to final corticosteroid discontinuation. Anti-MJ (NXP2) autoantibodies and a Northwest residential geoclimatic zone were predictive of shorter time to complete clinical response, while dysphonia, contractures, an increase in medications within 24 months and a longer time to corticosteroid discontinuation were associated with longer time to complete clinical response. Anti-p155/140 (TIF1) autoantibodies, an increase in medications within 12–24 months, or longer times to corticosteroid discontinuation and complete clinical response were associated with longer time to remission. Conclusion JDM patients achieve favourable outcomes, including corticosteroid discontinuation, complete clinical response and remission, although timelines for these may be several years based on time-dependent analyses. These outcomes are inter-related and strong predictors of each other. Selected clinical features and myositis autoantibodies are additionally associated with these outcomes.

Objectives Withholding TNF inhibitors (TNFI) before surgery has been recommended due to concern for post-operative infection. We examined the risks of post-operative infections and mortality in patients with RA in relation to the pre-operative timing of infliximab infusion. Methods In this population-based retrospective cohort study, we used US Medicare claims data from 2007 to 2015 to identify patients with RA who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), aortic or vascular surgery, or bowel resection, and who were treated with infliximab in the 90 days prior to surgery. We examined associations between the timing of infusion and infections and mortality in the 30 days after surgery. We adjusted for the predicted probability of post-operative infection or death, demographic characteristics, use of MTX, post-operative blood transfusion and hospital volume. Results We studied 712 patients with CABG, 244 patients with vascular surgery and 862 patients with bowel resections. Post-operative pneumonia occurred in 7.4–11.9%, urinary tract infection in 9.0–15.2%, surgical site infection in 3.2–18.9%, sepsis in 4.2–9.6% and death in 3.5–7.0% among surgery cohorts. There was no association between the time from last infliximab dose to surgery and the risk of post-operative infection or mortality in any surgical cohort. No subgroups were identified that had an increased risk of infection with more proximate use of infliximab. Conclusion Among elderly patients with RA, risks of infection and mortality after major surgery were not related to the pre-operative timing of infliximab infusion.

To compare disease characteristics, comorbidities, and medication utilization of 1141 patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) with short ( 8 years. Patients with AS enrolling in this multicenter longitudinal cohort have different disease profiles and medication utilization over time, perhaps reflecting innovations in treatment and increasing disease awareness.

Warfarin treatment has been associated with lower risks of prostate cancer, without a specified biological mechanism. Our study tested the hypothesis that reluctance to perform prostate biopsies in men who are anticoagulated results in lower rates of diagnosed prostate cancer, leading to an apparent protective effect. Rates of prostate biopsies have decreased from 2000 to 2015, allowing calendar time to be used as the intervention. In a national population-based sample of elderly men, our study compared trends in prostate cancer incidence between 17,815 men treated with chronic oral anticoagulation for prosthetic heart valve thromboprophylaxis and a general population comparison group of 356,300 men. Cancer events were based on administrative claims. Among men enrolled in 2000-2001 and followed through 2015, prostate cancer incidence was substantially lower in the anticoagulation group (adjusted incidence rate ratio [IRR] 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.62-0.80). Incidence decreased over time in the general population group to approach that of the anticoagulation group among men enrolled in 2008-2010 (IRR 0.86; 95% CI 0.71-1.04). Rates of prostate biopsies also decreased over time in the general population group to match the rate in the anticoagulation group. These results indicate that the apparent protective effect of warfarin treatment on the risk of prostate cancer is likely the result of detection bias from lower rates of biopsies among men who are anticoagulated.

Although cross-sectional studies have shown that ankylosing spondylitis-specific factors correlate with depressive symptom severity, the association of these factors over time is unresolved. We examined the demographic and clinical factors associated with longitudinal depressive symptom severity in AS patients. We analyzed sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral and medication data from 991 patients from the Prospective Study of Outcomes in Ankylosing spondylitis cohort, and measured depression severity with the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) Scale administered at approximately 6-month visit intervals. Multivariable longitudinal negative binomial regression models were conducted using generalized estimating equation modeling to assess the demographic, clinical, and medication-related factors associated with depression severity by CES-D scores over time. The median baseline CES-D score (possible range 0–60) was 10.0 (interquartile range = 5, 17). In longitudinal multivariable analyses, higher CES-D scores were associated with longitudinal smoking, greater functional impairment, greater disease activity, self-reported depression, and poor global health scores. Marital status (e.g., being married) was associated with lower CES-D. Adjusted mean CES-D scores in our model decreased over time, with a significant interaction between time and gender observed. This study identified longitudinal clinical factors such as greater disease activity, greater functional impairment, and poor global health to be associated with longitudinal depression severity. These factors are potentially modifiable and may help manage depressive symptoms in AS.

Background Racial and ethnic minorities on dialysis survive longer than whites, and are less likely to discontinue dialysis. Both differences have been attributed by some clinicians to better health among minorities on dialysis. Methods To test if racial and ethnic differences in dialysis discontinuation reflected better health, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of survival and dialysis discontinuation among patients on maintenance dialysis in the US Renal Data System after hospitalization for either stroke (n=60,734), lung cancer (n=4100), dementia (n=40,084), or failure to thrive (n=42,950) between 2003 and 2014. We examined the frequency of discontinuation of dialysis and used simulations to estimate survival in minorities relative to whites if minorities had the same pattern of dialysis discontinuation as whites. Results Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians had substantially lower frequencies of dialysis discontinuation than whites in each hospitalization cohort. Observed risks of mortality were also lower for blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. In simulations that assigned discontinuation patterns similar to those found among whites across racial and ethnic groups, differences in survival were markedly attenuated and hazard ratios approached 1.0. Survival and dialysis discontinuation frequencies among American Indians and Alaska Natives were close to those of whites. Conclusions Racial and ethnic differences in dialysis discontinuation were present among patients hospitalized with similar health events. Among these patients, survival differences between racial and ethnic minorities and whites were largely attributable to differences in the frequency of discontinuation of dialysis.

ObjectiveTo achieve consensus on a definition of remission in SLE (DORIS).BackgroundRemission is the stated goal for both patient and caregiver, but consensus on a definition of remission has been lacking. Previously, an international task force consisting of patient representatives and medical specialists published a framework for such a definition, without reaching a final recommendation.MethodsSeveral systematic literature reviews were performed and specific research questions examined in suitably chosen data sets. The findings were discussed, reformulated as recommendations and voted on.ResultsBased on data from the literature and several SLE-specific data sets, a set of recommendations was endorsed. Ultimately, the DORIS Task Force recommended a single definition of remission in SLE, based on clinical systemic lupus erythematosus disease activitiy index (SLEDAI)=0, Evaluator’s Global Assessment ConclusionThe 2021 DORIS definition of remission in SLE is recommended for use in clinical care, education, and research including clinical trials and observational studies.

ObjectiveTo determine the indication and risk of 30-day rehospitalization after hip or knee replacement among patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) by Medicare and non-Medicare status.MethodsUsing the Nationwide Readmission Database (2010–2014), we defined an index hospitalization as an elective hospitalization with a principal procedure of total hip (THR) or knee replacement (TKR) among adults aged ≥ 18 years. Primary payer was categorized as Medicare or non-Medicare. Survey logistic regression provided the odds of 30-day rehospitalization in RA relative to OA. We calculated the rates for principal diagnoses leading to rehospitalization.ResultsOverall, 3.53% of 2,190,745 index hospitalization had a 30-day rehospitalization. Patients with RA had a higher adjusted risk of rehospitalization after TKR (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.21) and THR (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.19–1.62). Persons with RA and OA did not differ with respect to rates of infections, cardiac events, or postoperative complications leading to the rehospitalization. After TKR, RA patients with Medicare had a lower venous thromboembolism (VTE) risk (OR 0.58, 95% CI 0.58–0.88), whereas those with RA had a greater VTE risk (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.04–5.57) after THR.ConclusionPatients with RA had a higher 30-day rehospitalization risk than OA after TKR and THR regardless of payer type. While infections, postoperative complications, and cardiac events did not differ, there was a significant difference in VTE as the principal diagnosis of rehospitalization.

Objective To determine whether the risk of mortality in patients with SLE hospitalized with sepsis varies among hospitals in the USA. Methods We used the National Inpatient Sample (2002–2011) to obtain national population-based data on outcomes for adults with SLE admitted with sepsis, and compared it with that for patients without SLE admitted with sepsis at the same hospital. We computed expected mortality based on patient demographic characteristics, comorbidities and major organ dysfunction, and calculated observed/expected (O/E) mortality ratios separately for patients with SLE and without SLE for each hospital. We then computed the ratio of these O/E ratios within hospitals to assess relative SLE mortality. We considered hospitals with a risk ratio (RR) of ⩾2.0 as having high relative SLE mortality. Results Among 424 hospitals that treated a total of 4024 patients with SLE and sepsis, the risk of in-hospital mortality varied from 0% to 60% (median 11.1%). The RR ranged from 0 to 9.75, with a median of 0.84, indicating that O/E mortality was similar in patients with and without SLE at the average hospital. Sixty-one hospitals (14.4%) had a RR of ⩾2.0, indicating higher mortality among patients with SLE. Hospitals that on average treated ⩾3.9 patients with SLE and sepsis annually were less likely to have a RR of ⩾2.0 than hospitals that treated fewer patients (10% vs 17%; P = 0.004). Conclusion Mortality among patients with SLE and sepsis varied widely between hospitals, and was lower at hospitals that treated more of these patients.

ObjectiveWe sought to test the hypothesis that Polygenic Risk Scores (PRSs) have strong capacity to discriminate cases of ankylosing spondylitis (AS) from healthy controls and individuals in the community with chronic back pain.MethodsPRSs were developed and validated in individuals of European and East Asian ethnicity, using data from genome-wide association studies in 15 585 AS cases and 20 452 controls. The discriminatory values of PRSs in these populations were compared with other widely used diagnostic tests, including C-reactive protein (CRP), HLA-B27 and sacroiliac MRI.ResultsIn people of European descent, PRS had high discriminatory capacity with area under the curve (AUC) in receiver operator characteristic analysis of 0.924. This was significantly better than for HLA-B27 testing alone (AUC=0.869), MRI (AUC=0.885) or C-reactive protein (AUC=0.700). PRS developed and validated in individuals of East Asian descent performed similarly (AUC=0.948). Assuming a prior probability of AS of 10% such as in patients with chronic back pain under 45 years of age, compared with HLA-B27 testing alone, PRS provides higher positive values for 35% of patients and negative predictive values for 67.5% of patients. For PRS, in people of European descent, the maximum positive predictive value was 78.2% and negative predictive value was 100%, whereas for HLA-B27, these values were 51.9% and 97.9%, respectively.ConclusionsPRS have higher discriminatory capacity for AS than CRP, sacroiliac MRI or HLA-B27 status alone. For optimal performance, PRS should be developed for use in the specific ethnic groups to which they are to be applied.

Recent estimates of the incidence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) vary widely around the world, but mainly fall between 1.4 and 6.3 cases per 100,000 per year. Rates are higher in women than in men, and lowest among whites compared to other ethnic groups. There has been no clear trend in incidence rates over recent years. Prevalence among US whites and many studies from Europe range from 32 to 55 per 100,000, while prevalence among US blacks ranges from 118 to 241 per 100,000. Few large epidemiological studies have been performed in low- or middle-income countries. Standardized mortality ratios indicate a threefold higher risk of death among patients with SLE than the general population. Mortality has decreased over the past several decades.

OBJECTIVE Latino patients are overrepresented among cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and are at an increased risk of severe disease. Prevalence of COVID-19 in Latinos with rheumatic diseases is poorly reported. This study was undertaken to characterize COVID-19 clinical features and outcomes in Latino patients with rheumatic diseases. METHODS We conducted a retrospective study of Latino patients with rheumatic diseases from an existing observational cohort in the Washington, DC area. Patients seen between April 1, 2020 and October 15, 2020 were analyzed in this study. We reviewed demographic characteristics, body mass index (BMI), comorbidities, and use of immunomodulatory therapies. An exploratory classification and regression tree (CART) analysis along with logistic regression analyses were performed to identify risk factors for COVID-19 and rheumatic disease flare. RESULTS Of 178 Latino patients with rheumatic diseases, 32 (18%) were identified as having COVID-19, and the incidence rate of infection was found to be 3-fold higher than in the general Latino population. No patients required intensive care unit-level care. A CART analysis and multivariable logistic regression analysis identified a BMI of >30.35 as a risk factor for COVID-19 (odds ratio [OR] 3.37 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.5-7.7]; P = 0.004). COVID-19 positivity was a risk factor for rheumatic disease flare (OR 4.57 [95% CI 1.2-17.4]; P = 0.02). CONCLUSION Our findings indicate that Latino patients with rheumatic diseases have a higher rate of COVID-19 compared with the general Latino population. Obesity is a risk factor for COVID-19, and COVID-19 is a risk factor for rheumatic disease flare. Latino patients with risk factors should be closely followed up, especially post-COVID-19 in anticipation of disease flare.

Background/PurposeFirst-degree relatives (FDRs) of patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS) may be at high risk of spondyloarthritis. We examined the frequency, characteristics of chronic back pain (CBP), associated features, persistence of symptoms, and HLA-B27 allele frequency in FDRs of AS patients, also comparing those FDRs with participants in NHANES 2009–2010 with CBP.Methods399 FDRs of AS probands were divided into: (1) No CBP (subjects >40 years old at study visit without CBP) (n=162); (2) NICBP (non-inflammatory CBP) (n=82), and (3) CIBP (inflammatory CBP) (n=155). White FDRs with CBP were compared with 772 participants in NHANES 2009–2010 with CBP. FDRs were invited to return for reassessment.ResultsFDRs with CIBP had earlier onset of CBP than those with NICBP (pConclusionCIBP in FDRs of AS patients is HLA-B27-associated, has earlier onset and tends to persist compared to NICBP.

We thank Zhou et al 1 for their interest in the 2019 European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations for the management of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in adults.2 Although glucocorticoids (GC) are widely used in systemic lupus erythematous-associated APS, there is some uncertainty about their use in primary APS, and more specifically, about their use and dosage in the second and third trimester of pregnancy. In the EULAR recommendations for APS management, the use of GC in patients with primary APS is recommended only in catastrophic APS (CAPS), and may be considered in refractory cases of obstetric APS at low-doses (≤10 mg prednisolone daily) and for only the first trimester.2 The latter statement is based on expert opinion due to the limited evidence. The only retrospective cohort study that addressed this question is described in the accompanying article with the results of the systematic literature review …

PURPOSE Studies using administrative hospitalization data often classify patients as having inflammatory arthritis based on diagnoses recorded at the hospitalization. We examined the agreement of these diagnoses with patients' prior medical histories. METHODS We identified Medicare beneficiaries hospitalized in 2011 to 2015 for total hip arthroplasty (THA), total knee arthroplasty (TKA), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), or sepsis. We compared diagnoses of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) or ankylosing spondylitis (AS) at the index hospitalization to diagnoses over prior inpatient and outpatient claims. To assess the impact of potential misclassification, we compared hospital outcomes using the alternative methods of detecting beneficiaries with arthritis. Analyses were repeated using Medicaid data. RESULTS Among 506 781 Medicare beneficiaries with THA, 18282 had RA and 571 had AS at the arthroplasty hospitalization, while 13 212 had RA and 1519 had AS based on claims history. Diagnoses at the hospitalization were highly specific (0.98-0.99), but sensitivities (0.65 for RA; 0.31 for AS) and positive predictive values (PPV) (0.47 for RA; 0.83 for AS) were lower. For TKA, AMI, and sepsis, specificities were 0.97 to 0.99, sensitivities 0.60 to 0.66 for RA and 0.18 to 0.22 for AS, and PPVs 0.43 to 0.47 for RA and 0.73 to 0.77 for AS. In Medicaid, sensitivities were 0.21 to 0.67 for RA and 0.07 to 0.49 for AS. Frequencies of some hospital outcomes differed when arthritis was classified by the index hospitalization or claims history. CONCLUSION Diagnoses of RA and AS in hospitalization databases are highly specific but fail to identify large proportions of patients with these diagnoses.

Key Points Question How variable are rates of total knee arthroplasty across the United States after accounting for the prevalence of knee arthritis and other patient risk factors? Findings In this cohort study of more than 24 million Medicare beneficiaries annually from 2011 to 2015, observed to expected ratios for total knee arthroplasty ranged from 0.61 in Newark, New Jersey, to 1.82 in Idaho Falls, Idaho, suggesting areas of relative underuse and overuse. Regions with higher than expected rates were also associated with high rates among patients having relative contraindications to knee arthroplasty. Meaning Decision-making thresholds for performing total knee arthroplasty appear to differ across the US in a pattern suggesting overuse in some regions., Importance Rates of total knee arthroplasty vary widely across the United States. Whether this variation is associated with differences in patient characteristics or physician practice is unknown. Objectives To determine regional variations in rates of total knee arthroplasty after accounting for the prevalence of knee arthritis and other potentially associated patient risk factors and to assess the correlation of these variations with measures of access to care and surgical indications. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective national cohort study used Medicare data on more than 24 million deidentified beneficiaries annually from 2011 to 2015. Individuals included had fee-for-service coverage, were 65 to 89 years of age, and resided in 1 of 306 health referral regions. Data were analyzed from September 13, 2018, to August 15, 2019. Main Outcomes and Measures Rate of primary total knee arthroplasty indexed to the national rate using observed to expected ratios. The expected numbers of arthroplasty procedures were derived from estimates based on beneficiaries’ demographic and clinical characteristics. Observed to expected ratios were confounded by race/ethnicity; thus race/ethnicity–stratified analyses were conducted. Results In 2011, there were 218 282 total knee arthroplasty procedures among 24 583 706 white Medicare beneficiaries (mean [SD] age 74.2 [6.9] years; 54.6% women). The rate of arthroplasty during the study period (5 years) was 9.3 per 1000 person-years. Adjustment for clinical characteristics reduced the spread in observed to expected ratios among regions by 29% compared with adjustment for age and sex alone. However, substantial variation remained, with observed to expected ratios that ranged from 0.61 in Newark, New Jersey, to 1.82 in Idaho Falls, Idaho. High ratios were primarily present in the upper Midwest, Great Plains, and Mountain West regions. Higher ratios were associated with regions where beneficiaries had fewer outpatient visits (Spearman correlation [r], −0.64; 95% CI, −0.70 to −0.56) and with regions having more surgeons per capita who performed knee arthroplasty (r = 0.27; 95% CI, 0.16-0.37). Higher ratios were associated with higher rates of arthroplasty procedures among beneficiaries with dementia (r = 0.36; 95% CI, 0.25-0.46), peripheral vascular disease (r = 0.52; 95% CI, 0.42-0.61), and skin ulcers (r = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.32-0.53), which are relative contraindications to arthroplasty. Conclusions and Relevance Substantial regional variation in rates of total knee arthroplasty remained after adjustment for patient characteristics. Coexistence of high observed to expected ratios and high rates among patients at greater surgical risk suggested overuse of knee arthroplasty in some regions., This nationwide cohort study assesses whether rates of total knee arthroplasty are associated with the prevalence of knee arthritis, other potential risk factors, or geographic region among Medicare beneficiaries 65 to 89 years of age.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the severity of illness of patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) between those hospitalized at academic medical centers and those hospitalized at community hospitals. METHODS: In this population based cross-sectional survey, data on all hospitalizations of patients with SLE in California, New York, and Pennsylvania in 2000 were obtained from discharge abstracts submitted by acute care hospitals to state health planning agencies. Patients hospitalized at one of 36 academic medical centers in these states (N = 2072) were compared to patients hospitalized at community hospitals (N = 9373). The primary measures of severity of illness were the SLE Comorbidity Index, a weighted index of SLE manifestations and comorbid medical conditions based on discharge diagnoses, and long lengths of stay, defined as stays that exceeded the 90th percentile of hospital stays in the same diagnosis-related group in the United States. RESULTS: Compared to patients at community hospitals, patients at academic medical centers had substantially higher scores on the SLE Comorbidity Index (odds ratio for each 1-point increase 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.15-1.40, p or = 300 beds) community hospitals in the same metropolitan areas. Results for the SLE Comorbidity Index were similar in the subset of patients with SLE as the primary discharge diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Patients with SLE hospitalized at academic medical centers are generally more severely ill than those hospitalized at community hospitals, including large community hospitals in the same area.

Objective Inflammatory back pain (IBP) is often an early manifestation of spondyloarthritis (SpA), but the prognosis of patients with incident IBP is unknown. This study was undertaken to investigate long-term outcomes in patients with IBP, and predictors of progression to SpA, in a population-based cohort. Methods We conducted a retrospective, longitudinal study using the Rochester Epidemiology Project, a longstanding population-based cohort of residents of Olmsted County, MN. Patients ages 16-35 years with clinical visits for back pain from 1999 to 2003 were identified, and we screened these patients for the presence of new-onset IBP and performed medical record reviews to collect data on clinical, laboratory, and imaging features of SpA. Outcomes in these patients were followed up until July 2016. We used survival analysis for competing risks to examine progression to either SpA, a non-SpA diagnosis, or resolution of back pain. Recursive partitioning was used to identify predictors of progression to SpA. Results Among 5,304 patients with back pain, we identified 124 patients with new-onset IBP. After a median follow-up of 13.2 years, IBP had progressed to SpA in 39 patients, 15 patients developed a non-SpA diagnosis, and 58 patients had resolution of IBP. At 10 years, the probability of having SpA was 30%, while the probability of resolution of IBP was 43%. The most important predictors for progression to SpA were uveitis, male sex, and family history of SpA. Conclusion In a minority of patients, new-onset IBP progresses to SpA, while IBP resolves in many. That IBP often resolves may explain the difference between the prevalence of IBP (3-6%) and the prevalence of SpA (0.4-1.3%).

Objective.We examined agreement between the American College of Rheumatology (ACR), European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR), and Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI) response criteria in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and tested whether discordant responses were associated with patients’ baseline characteristics or changes in RA activity encapsulated by the different criteria.Methods.In a prospective longitudinal study, we examined responses of 243 patients with active RA to escalation of antirheumatic treatment. We computed agreement between pairs of response criteria using κ coefficients and identified patient characteristics associated with unique responses to individual criteria.Results.We found that 110 patients (45.3%) had an ACR 20% improvement (ACR20) response, 135 (55.5%) had a EULAR moderate/good response, and 83 (34.1%) had an SDAI50 response. Agreement was moderate to good (ACR20/EULAR κ 0.57; ACR20/SDAI50 κ 0.64; EULAR/SDAI50 κ 0.59). All who had SDAI50 response also had a EULAR response. Patient characteristics at baseline generally did not distinguish those who responded to both, 1, or neither criterion. Discordance was most often because of improvements in the erythrocyte sedimentation rate or C-reactive protein level among EULAR and SDAI50 responders, which were not as common among ACR20 responders. Based on receiver-operating characteristic curves, SDAI35 response had a better balance of sensitivity and specificity relative to ACR20 and EULAR moderate/good responses than SDAI50.Conclusion.Discordant responses to RA improvement criteria are most often because of differences in responses of acute-phase reactants. SDAI35 response had higher sensitivity for improvement, as reflected by other response criteria, than SDAI50 response.

To provide an update of the prevalence and incidence of axial spondyloarthritis in the general population and in patients with spondyloarthritis-related conditions, environmental risk factors for ankylosing spondylitis, progression from nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis to ankylosing spondylitis, mortality, and risks for cardiovascular events in patients with ankylosing spondylitis.Increasingly, administrative healthcare data have been used to study disease frequency and outcomes. The prevalence of ankylosing spondylitis ranged from 9 to 30 per 10 000 persons, which are lower than previous estimates. Data on whether childhood infections influence the risk of ankylosing spondylitis were equivocal, while having been breast-fed may be protective. Progression of patients with nonradiographic axial spondyloarthritis to ankylosing spondylitis is slow, with estimates of 5.1% in 5 years and 19% in 10 years. Risk of mortality is slightly increased in ankylosing spondylitis. Risks for cardiovascular events in ankylosing spondylitis were either not different from, or only slightly higher than in controls. No studies have examined these outcomes in the broader group of patients with axial spondyloarthritis.Expanded use of administrative and registry data has facilitated studies of the epidemiology of ankylosing spondylitis, but lack of specific diagnostic codes limits use of these resources for studying axial spondyloarthritis in general.