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Abstract: This paper analyzes the role of forest-based carbon sequestration in a unilateral EU27 emissions reduction policy under a Global Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. Forestry mitigation is introduced into the model relying on carbon sequestration curves provided by a global forestry model. The structure of the original CGE is extended to consider land use change and timber supply effects, resulting from the use of forest sinks to reduce carbon emissions. Results show that afforestation and timber management could lead to substantially lower policy costs. By using forest-carbon sinks it is possible to achieve the 30% emissions reduction target with an additional European effort of only 0.2% of GDP compared with the cost of a 20% emissions reduction without forestry. Carbon price is also reduced, by approximately 30% in 2020. European forest-carbon sequestration may have, however, the perverse effect of increasing timber production in areas of the world which already have high deforestation rates. A sensitivity analysis on main parameters confirms the robustness of our results. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Heat waves represent one of the most significant climatic stressors for ecosystems, economies and societies. A main topic of debate is whether they have increased or not in intensity and/or their duration due to the observed climate change. Firstly, this is because of the lack of reliable long-term daily temperature data at the global scale; secondly, because of the intermittent nature of such phenomena. Long datasets are required to produce a reliable and meaningful assessment. In this study, we provide a global estimate of heat wave magnitudes based on the three most appropriate datasets currently available, derived from models and observations (i.e. the 20th Century Reanalyses from NOAA and ECMWF), spanning the last century and before. The magnitude of the heat waves is calculated by means of the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId), taking into account both duration and amplitude. We compare the magnitude of the most severe heat waves occurred across different regions of the world and we discuss the decadal variability of the larger events since the 1850s. We concentrate our analysis from 1901 onwards, where all datasets overlap. Our results agree with other studies focusing on heat waves that have occurred in the recent decades, but using different data. In addition, we found that the percentage of global area covered by heat wave exceeding a given magnitude has increased almost three times, in the last decades, with respect to that measured in the early 20th century. Finally, we discuss the specific implications of the heat waves on the river runoff generated in the Alps, for which comparatively long datasets exist, affecting the water quality and availability in a significant portion of the European region in summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Moving towards a more sustainable future requires concerted actions, particularly in the context of global climate change. Integrated assessments of agricultural systems (IAAS) are considered valuable tools to provide sound information for policy and decision-making. IAAS use storylines to define socio-economic and environmental framework assumptions. While a set of qualitative global storylines, known as the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), is available to inform integrated assessments at large scales, their spatial resolution and scope is insufficient for regional studies in agriculture. We present a protocol to operationalize the development of Shared Socio-economic Pathways for European agriculture – Eur-Agri-SSPs – to support IAAS. The proposed design of the storyline development process is based on six quality criteria: plausibility, vertical and horizontal consistency, salience, legitimacy, richness and creativity. Trade-offs between these criteria may occur. The process is science-driven and iterative to enhance plausibility and horizontal consistency. A nested approach is suggested to link storylines across scales while maintaining vertical consistency. Plausibility, legitimacy, salience, richness and creativity shall be stimulated in a participatory and interdisciplinary storyline development process. The quality criteria and process design requirements are combined in the protocol to increase conceptual and methodological transparency. The protocol specifies nine working steps. For each step, suitable methods are proposed and the intended level and format of stakeholder engagement are discussed. A key methodological challenge is to link global SSPs with regional perspectives provided by the stakeholders, while maintaining vertical consistency and stakeholder buy-in. We conclude that the protocol facilitates systematic development and evaluation of storylines, which can be transferred to other regions, sectors and scales and supports inter-comparisons of IAAS. • The Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) will be refined for sectors and scales. • We develop a protocol for systematically enriching SSPs for European agriculture. • Six quality criteria guide the design of the storyline development process. • Nine work steps, adequate methods and stakeholder engagement levels are specified. • Feedback loops and consistency checks are suggested for quality control. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gradually increasing sea levels and extreme events related to changing climate conditions could trigger multiple hazards for low-lying coastal areas, determining increasing inundation and erosion risk for local communities, infrastructure and ecosystems. Moreover, there is growing evidence that socio-economic dynamics (e.g. unplanned urbanization, land use and demographic changes) would increase coastal flood risk in the next decades. Understanding how natural and human-induced drivers concur to determine exposure, vulnerability and risks in coastal areas is of paramount importance for mainstreaming effective climate adaptation and risk reduction policies into coastal zone management.In the frame of the SAVEMEDCOASTS project (www.savemedcoasts.eu), a Climate Change Coastal Vulnerability Index (CC-CVI) was developed to provide guidance and operative criteria for exposure, vulnerability and risk assessment in Mediterranean coastal areas. The overall aim of the index is to identify map and prioritize coastal areas at higher risk from climate-related hazards (sea level rise inundation and storm surge flooding) in vulnerable (flood-prone) areas, providing a knowledge base for national-scale adaptation planning and disaster risk management. The index combines a composite set of physical, environmental and socio-economic indicators representing (i) hazard-prone areas potentially inundated by sea level rise and extreme water levels in future RCP8.5 scenario; (ii) exposure, including indicators of economic, social and manufactured capitals; (iii) vulnerability, represented by indicators of geomorphic susceptibility to flooding and adaptive capacity. The CC-CVI was applied to the Italian shoreline considering a baseline scenario representing current climate and land use condition, and a future one for the 2050, integrating both climate projections and data simulating changes in the environmental and socio-economic systems. Results of the analysis include a range of spatial vulnerability indicators and statistics allowing to rank Italian coastal provinces according to their relative vulnerability to extreme sea level scenarios. The main steps of the methodology and the applicability of results for decision-makers and risk practitioners are here presented and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the main tasks of the SAVEMEDCOASTS project is communication on coastal hazard, concerning sea level rise, storm surges and tsunamis in the Mediterranean region. To this goal, it is crucial to improve governance and raise community awareness towards these related hazards on coastal populations. SAVEMEDCOASTS achieved this goal through the most popular social media, a tailor-made website, which includes an open-access web-GIS platform, and the active involvement of decision-makers and stakeholders. Their engagement began with a mapping exercise, in each of the three project countries, and resulted in the involvement of 142 people, directly and indirectly affected by sea level rise, including representatives from a wide range of governmental and private organizations, businesses and industry. The innovative nature of the implemented approach stems from the range of stakeholder engagement methods utilized over the duration of the project, each designed to meet the needs of the specific stakeholder groups engaged. The outputs from each stage of stakeholder engagement were analysed and used to fine-tune the next stage. To begin with, the perceptions of a wider range and larger number of stakeholders on risks and impacts of sea level rise, storm surges and tsunamis, as well as on needs and solutions to mitigate and address them were recorded through an online survey, and then validated through face-to-face interviews with selected stakeholders representing industry and governance. Once a preliminary understanding of perceptions was compiled, three small focus group meetings were organized to better define specific research and policy gaps and needs in the areas of study. Finally, 26 decision and policy-makers were involved in national, site-specific workshops, where they were facilitated in the prioritisation of measures to mitigate risks of sea level rise, through the visualisation of the risk hazard through the web-GIS platform, and the implementation of a decision-support methodology. Results provided an overview of stakeholders' perceptions accounting for both dissimilarities and commonalities of the three countries, which are paramount to prioritize and design interventions while meeting stakeholders' needs. An overview of the methodology and the analysis of the outcomes arising from the SAVEMEDCOASTS Project are then provided to favour coastal hazard communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]