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The expansion of forest cover and intensification of agriculture represent the main threats to the bush cricket Saga pedo, currently listed as Vulnerable globally by the IUCN and included in Annex IV of the European Union Habitats Directive. Gathering information on its ecology and population size is challenging due to its low abundance and localized distribution. Additionally, the elusive and cryptic behavior of this species reduces the likelihood of its detection, potentially resulting in population underestimations. Thus, in this study, we aimed to (1) estimate S. pedo population size in relation to environmental variables and prey availability and (2) predict abundance of S. pedo in our study area for future monitoring in nearby territories. We found that the population of S. pedo in our study area consists of 197 (±115) individuals with a detection probability of 21.01% (±11.09). Detection probability of S. pedo further decreases on windy days. Moreover, we found that the investigated population of S. pedo occupies suboptimal areas, as highlighted not only by the predicted abundances but also by the association between S. pedo and other subfamilies of orthoptera that are ecologically very distant from our target species and mostly linked to mesophilic biotopes. Most of the individuals we observed are concentrated in small clearings completely within wooded matrices and therefore isolated from each other. Based on our results, it is possible that forest expansion toward open meadows represents the main threat to this population, transforming the clearings and xeric meadows (to which S. pedo is linked) into small and fragmented patches that are suboptimal and insufficient to host viable populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of invasive species is not limited to the loss of biodiversity; it also represents significant threats to agriculture on a global scale. The Japanese beetle Popillia japonica (native to Japan but an invasive agricultural pest in North America) recently occurred in the Po plain (Italy), one of the most cultivated areas in southern Europe. Thus, our aims were to identify (i) the main landscape predictors related to the occurrence of the Japanese beetle and (ii) the areas of potential invasion of the Japanese beetle in the two Northern Italian regions in which this invasive species currently occurs, Piedmont and Lombardy. Specifically, we combined Japanese beetle occurrences available in the citizen science online platform iNaturalist with high-resolution landscape predictors in an ensemble approach and averaged the results of Bayesian generalized linear and additive models developed with the integrated nested Laplace approximation (with stochastic partial differential equation). We found that the occurrence of the Japanese beetle was negatively related to the percentage of broadleaf forests and pastures, while it was positively related to sparse and dense human settlements as well as intensive crops. Moreover, the occurrence of the Japanese beetle increased in relation to the percentage of rice fields until a peak at around 50%. The Japanese beetle was likely to occur in 32.49% of our study area, corresponding to 16,000.02 km2, mainly located in the Po plain, low hills, and mountain valleys. We stress that the Japanese beetle is a high-risk invasive species in human-dominated landscapes. Thus, we strongly recommend that local administrations quickly enact pest management in order to reduce further spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citizen science platforms are increasingly growing, and, storing a huge amount of data on species locations, they provide researchers with essential information to develop sound strategies for species conservation. However, the lack of information on surveyed sites (i.e., where the observers did not record the target species) and sampling effort (e.g., the number of surveys at a given site, by how many observers, and for how much time) strongly limit the use of citizen science data. Thus, we examined the advantage of using an observer‐oriented approach (i.e., considering occurrences of species other than the target species collected by the observers of the target species as pseudo‐absences and additional predictors relative to the total number of observations, observers, and days in which locations were collected in a given sampling unit, as proxies of sampling effort) to develop species distribution models. Specifically, we considered 15 mammal species occurring in Italy and compared the predictive accuracy of the ensemble predictions of nine species distribution models carried out considering random pseudo‐absences versus observer‐oriented approach. Through cross‐validations, we found that the observer‐oriented approach improved species distribution models, providing a higher predictive accuracy than random pseudo‐absences. Our results showed that species distribution modeling developed using pseudo‐absences derived citizen science data outperform those carried out using random pseudo‐absences and thus improve the capacity of species distribution models to accurately predict the geographic range of species when deriving robust surrogate of sampling effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Many rare species are dispersal‐limited; their colonization capacity can be impacted by land use and climate changes. Most ecological niche models predict the distribution of species under future climate and land use change scenarios without incorporating species‐specific dispersal abilities. Here we investigate the effect of climate and land use change on low vagile species accounting for their dispersal capacity and define accessible areas in the future. Location: Europe. Taxon: Saproxylic beetles. Methods: We used the current (2007–2012) occurrences of six endangered saproxylics to develop ecological niche models using current climate and land use conditions. We projected species distributions under four future climate and land use change scenarios to estimate their potential occurrences. Finally, accounting for species‐specific dispersal, we limited their distributions to accessible areas in 2040–2050. Results: Without accounting for dispersal abilities we found a strong and positive impact of climate change on the distribution of Cerambix cerdo, Cucujus cinnaberinus, Morimus funereus and Rosalia alpina and a positive effect of land use change on the distribution of Lucanus cervus and Osmoderma eremita. When species‐specific dispersal was included, we found a strong and positive impact of land use change on the distribution of all the species. In this case climate change had a lower but positive effect on the distribution of C. cerdo, C. cinnaberinus, L. cervus and R. alpina, and a negative effect on the distribution of O. eremita. Main conclusion: We found that climate change would promote the expansion of saproxylic beetles only in the unrealistic case of unlimited dispersal. Accounting for dispersal abilities, the expansion of our species would be mainly conditioned by the effect of land use change. Thus, we encourage researchers to combine climate and land use change with dispersal when projecting species distribution under future scenarios to accurately identify areas with fundamental species‐specific resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While biological distributions are not static and change/evolve through space and time, nonstationarity of climatic and land‐use conditions is frequently neglected in species distribution models. Even recent techniques accounting for spatiotemporal variation of species occurrence basically consider the environmental predictors as static; specifically, in most studies using species distribution models, predictor values are averaged over a 50‐ or 30‐year time period. This could lead to a strong bias due to monthly/annual variation between the climatic conditions in which species' locations were recorded and those used to develop species distribution models or even a complete mismatch if locations have been recorded more recently. Moreover, the impact of land‐use change has only recently begun to be fully explored in species distribution models, but again without considering year‐specific values. Excluding dynamic climate and land‐use predictors could provide misleading estimation of species distribution. In recent years, however, open‐access spatially explicit databases that provide high‐resolution monthly and annual variation in climate (for the period 1901–2016) and land‐use (for the period 1992–2015) conditions at a global scale have become available. Combining species locations collected in a given month of a given year with the relative climatic and land‐use predictors derived from these datasets would thus lead to the development of true dynamic species distribution models (D‐SDMs), improving predictive accuracy and avoiding mismatch between species locations and predictor variables. Thus, we strongly encourage modelers to develop D‐SDMs using month‐ and year‐specific climatic data as well as year‐specific land‐use data that match the period in which species data were collected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The distribution of intraspecific genetic variation and how it relates to environmental factors is of increasing interest to researchers in macroecology and biogeography. Recent studies investigated the relationships between the environment and patterns of intraspecific genetic variation across species ranges but only few rigorously tested the relation between genetic groups and their ecological niches. We quantified the relationship of genetic differentiation (FST) and the overlap of ecological niches (as measured by n‐dimensional hypervolumes) among genetic groups resulting from spatial Bayesian genetic clustering in the wolf (Canis lupus) in the Italian peninsula. Within the Italian wolf population, four genetic clusters were detected, and these clusters showed different ecological niches. Moreover, different wolf clusters were significantly related to differences in land cover and human disturbance features. Such differences in the ecological niches of genetic clusters should be interpreted in light of neutral processes that hinder movement, dispersal, and gene flow among the genetic clusters, in order to not prematurely assume any selective or adaptive processes. In the present study, we found that both the plasticity of wolves—a habitat generalist—to cope with different environmental conditions and the occurrence of barriers that limit gene flow lead to the formation of genetic intraspecific genetic clusters and their distinct ecological niches. The distribution of intraspecific genetic variation and how it relates to environmental factors is of increasing interest to researchers in macroecology. Thus, we related genetic differentiation to ecological niche overlap among genetic groups resulting from spatial Bayesian clustering in the wolf population inhabiting part of the Italian peninsula. We found a significant relationship between genetic differentiation and ecological niche overlap and quantified differences in environmental factors among clusters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Europe is currently being re-colonized by large carnivore species such as brown bear Ursus arctos, Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx and grey wolf Canis lupus. Approximately one-third of Europe currently hosts at least one of these large carnivore species: they show permanent occurrence in some regions and sporadic occurrence without reproduction in others. We investigated potential future range expansions of these three large carnivores using three different analyses. First, we compared niche overlap between the historical, current permanent and current sporadic occurrences using n-dimensional hypervolumes. Second, we identified the environmental variables that best explain differences between current sporadic and permanent occurrences through multi-model inference. Third, we projected permanent occurrences into the future across a range of land-use change scenarios. We also determined future refuges (i.e. sub-optimal habitat in the environmental model, good habitat in the human disturbance model) and ecological traps (i.e. good habitat in the environmental model, sub-optimal habitat in the human disturbance model). In the three large carnivore species, ecological niche overlap was higher between historical and current permanent occurrences than between historical and current sporadic occurrences, and we also found low ecological niche overlap between current permanent and sporadic occurrences. Between 20 and 24% (corresponding to 86 800 to 173 200 km2) of the current sporadic occurrences could result in permanent settlement of large carnivores in the year 2040, while 17-24% (corresponding to 122 200 to 104 100 km2) and 2.7-4.6% (corresponding to 11 800 to 28 400 km2) of the current sporadic occurrences are likely to become refuges and ecological traps, respectively. Factors affecting range expansion are human activities, which were negatively related to permanent occurrences of all three species. In light of our results, human-dominated European landscapes provide ample space for the future recolonization of large carnivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Landscape genetics aims to investigate functional connectivity among wild populations by evaluating the impact of landscape features on gene flow. Genetic distances among populations or individuals are generally better explained by least-cost path (LCP) distances derived from resistance surfaces than by simple Euclidean distances. Resistance surfaces reflect the cost for an organism to move through particular landscape elements. However, determining the effects of landscape types on movements is challenging. Because of a general lack of empirical data on movements, resistance surfaces mostly rely on expert knowledge. Habitat-suitability models potentially provide a more objective method to estimate resistance surfaces than expert opinions, but they have rarely been applied in landscape genetics so far. We compared LCP distances based on expert knowledge with LCP distances derived from habitat-suitability models to evaluate their performance in landscape genetics. We related all LCP distances to genetic distances in linear mixed effect models on an empirical data set of wolves ( Canis lupus) from Italy. All LCP distances showed highly significant ( P ≤ 0.0001) standardized β coefficients and R values, but LCPs from habitat-suitability models generally showed higher values than those resulting from expert knowledge. Moreover, all LCP distances better explained genetic distances than Euclidean distances, irrespective of the approaches used. Considering our results, we encourage researchers in landscape genetics to use resistance surfaces based on habitat suitability which performed better than expert-based LCPs in explaining patterns of gene flow and functional connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The natural and seminatural components of agricultural landscapes play a key role in maintaining a high level of biodiversity. Being the Po Valley one of the most human‐dominated and intensively cultivated landscapes in Europe, we investigated the effect of no‐crop habitats on carabid richness and composition and evaluated the role of tree row as corridor for forest carabid dispersion. Carabids were sampled with 70 pitfall traps arranged in 35 sampling plots along three parallel transects (80, 100, and 140 m long) and encompassing five different habitats: tree row, tree row edge, grassland, forest edge, and forest. We found 5,615 individuals belonging to 55 species. Despite the similarity in species richness, all the habitats investigated showed a peculiar and distinct species assemblage. The main distinction was between the "open habitat" cluster composed of grassland and tree row edge and the "forest" cluster composed of forest, tree row, and forest edge. We found that forest species are able to penetrate the grassland matrix up to 30 m from the forest edge and that a distance of no more than 60 m between tree row and forest can allow the passage of up to 50% of the forest species. Beyond this distance, the grassland matrix becomes a barrier, preventing them from reaching other suitable habitats. Our findings confirm the importance of maintaining different types of natural habitats to significantly increase biodiversity in an intensively cultivated agroecosystem and demonstrated the role of linear elements as a corridor and "stepping stones" for many forest species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the periodic moult of the plumage of birds, a fast regrowth of feathers would shorten the time of reduced plumage functionality. However, it has long been known that feather growth-rate is limited and that long feathers take disproportionally longer to grow than small feathers, which has severe consequences on moult duration and the completeness of moult in large birds. The reasons for the limitations of feather-growth must be related to the size and/or functions of the feather follicle, but are largely unknown. Here we measured the size of the feather follicle (taking calamus width as a proxy) and related it to parameters of feather growth (feather growth-rate by mass and by length) and feather structure (feather length, mass, massiveness [mass of feather material per mm feather-length]). We used three independent datasets which allowed for interspecific analyses, and for intraspecific comparisons of differently structured feathers within the framework of biological scaling. We found that the cross-sectional area of the calamus (as a proxy of feather follicle size) was directly proportional to feather growth-rate by mass. Hence, factors acting at a two-dimensional scale (possibly nutrient supply to the growing feather) determines feather growth rate by mass, rather than the linear arrangement of stem cells (in a circular configuration) as had previously been assumed. Feather follicle size was correlated with both feather length and massiveness, hence it seems to be adapted to some extent to feather structure. Feather growth-rate by length was dependent on both the feather material produced per unit time (growth-rate by mass) and the amount of material deposited per unit feather-length. Follicle size not only determines feather growth-rate by mass, but also directly the structural design (shape, number of barbs, etc.) of a feather. Therefore, feather growth-rate is severely constrained by the requirements imposed by the structural feather design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population divergence could be strongly affected by species' ecology and might not be a direct response to climate‐driven environmental change. We tested this in the middle spotted woodpecker (Dendrocoptes medius), a non‐migratory, low‐dispersal habitat specialist associated with old deciduous forests of the Western Palearctic. We present the first phylogeographic study of this species integrating genetic data (three mitochondrial loci, one autosomal and one Z‐linked intron) with species distribution modelling. Based on this species' ecology, we predicted that the middle spotted woodpecker could have colonized its current range from multiple Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) refugia and that strongly structured populations could be expected. Indeed, we discovered a strong genetic divergence between Asian and European populations, with a split estimated at around one million of years ago. This was surprising given only slight intraspecific variation in plumage and morphology. Although there was no significant phylogeographic structure within the Asian and European groups, we cannot exclude the possibility of multiple refugia within either group during the LGM. This has to be further investigated with more extensive geographic sampling and larger number of variable independently evolving markers. Future studies should also investigate potential differences in vocalizations and ecology between the two groups. Lineages showing similar level of genetic differentiation including woodpeckers are often treated as species‐level taxa. Comparison of our results with the phylogeographic history of other woodpeckers, suggests that sympatric species with similar life‐histories might have idiosyncratic phylogeographic patterns probably resulting from different ecological requirements or historic stochasticity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A variety of nonrandom mate choice strategies, including disassortative mating, are used by vertebrate species to avoid inbreeding, maintain heterozygosity and increase fitness. Disassortative mating may be mediated by the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), an important gene cluster controlling immune responses to pathogens. We investigated the patterns of mate choice in 26 wild-living breeding pairs of gray wolf (Canis lupus) that were identified through noninvasive genetic methods and genotyped at 3 MHC class II and 12 autosomal microsatellite (STR) loci. We tested for deviations from random mating and evaluated the covariance of genetic variables at functional and STR markers with fitness proxies deduced from pedigree reconstructions. Results did not show evidences of MHC-based disassortative mating. Rather we found a higher peptide similarity between mates at MHC loci as compared with random expectations. Fitness values were positively correlated with heterozygosity of the breeders at both MHC and STR loci, whereas they decreased with relatedness at STRs. These findings may indicate fitness advantages for breeders that, while avoiding highly related mates, are more similar at the MHC and have high levels of heterozygosity overall. Such a pattern of MHC-assortative mating may reflect local coadaptation of the breeders, while a reduction in genetic diversity may be balanced by heterozygote advantages. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Habitat models are fundamental tools for designing evidence-based conservation measures, particularly for locating sites with high potential for promoting a species' recolonisation and occupancy. However, it remains challenging to respond to both the need for large-scale general rules, and for fine-scale information concurrently. Multi-level habitat models provide all-in-one surfaces that explicitly account for conditional dependencies among single-level selection probabilities. We integrated occurrence data obtained from citizen-science species observation data with radio-tracking data to develop multi-level resource selection functions for the little owl (Athene noctua), a species of conservation concern in Central Europe. The results of our habitat selection analyses confirmed that suitable little owl habitat is located in widely open agricultural landscapes that often exist in the vicinity of human settlements. We mapped habitats at fine resolution (40 × 40 m) over an area covering 77,313 km2 in Switzerland and Baden-Württemberg, Germany. We validated the models with external out-of-sample data, and we demonstrated good predictive ability and transferability over the broad landscape. Overall, a fifth of the modelled landscape was estimated to be suitable for little owls. Habitat suitability scores in Switzerland were generally lower than in Baden-Württemberg due to higher elevation, fewer orchards, and more forest patches. Extant populations currently occupy c. 15% of the potential suitable habitats in Baden-Württemberg, and 2% in Switzerland, suggesting that considerable space for recolonisation is available. However, while Baden-Württemberg offers vast open landscapes, lowlands in Switzerland show narrow swaths of habitat along valleys and lakes. We showed that the simultaneous integration of different levels of habitat selection behaviour into a multi-level habitat suitability map creates a promising tool for conservation planning of endangered species over large geographical areas. Our multi-level model allowed for identification of both large-scale habitat suitability patterns to develop conservation strategies, and fine-scale clusters of high quality habitats where conservation measures can be applied at once, thereby increasing relevance of such all-in-one habitat maps for policy makers, wildlife managers and conservations practitioners alike. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the 1970s, the crested porcupine Hystrix cristata has shown a marked range expansion in Italy. A web page has been created to collect occurrences of this species to monitor its distribution redefinition. Thus, aims of this work were (i) to identify the main predictors promoting the distribution of this large rodent in Italy and (ii) to predict its potential expansion under future climate change scenarios. A total of 1674 locations were used for this analysis, i.e., all those collected through the web page, with the exception of recently introduced populations (Sardinia, Western Liguria and Province of Varese). The current distribution of the crested porcupine covers a total of 135,177 km2, as estimated through ensemble predictions. Future climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2070 show that a further range expansion by this species would occur up to 225,576 km2, mainly towards areas where the species was historically absent. The increase of isothermality (i.e., the ratio between the mean diurnal and the annual temperature range) and the mean temperature of the driest months would help crested porcupines to reach high altitudes, e.g., in the Alps. In mountain habitats, the ongoing global warming is shifting the distribution of European forests to high elevations, thus potentially providing porcupines with suitable habitats. A reduction in snow cover and the snow period at ground level would remove an important barrier to the range expansion of the crested porcupine in Italy, and thus facilitate digging and food search by this large rodent. Despite being protected at national and international levels, the crested porcupine is reported to be an introduced species to Italy and, therefore, monitoring its range expansion is required. Furthermore, there are complaints about crop damage in agriculture ecosystems, and the species is still widely poached, thus additional management practices are required. Thus, given the conservation interest of this large rodent, an integrated and constantly updated monitoring system that sustains an addressed set of decision-making tools is recommended. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose the integration of different noninvasive sampling methods to the study of predator-prey interactions. We analyzed the diet of the wolf (Canis lupus) to point out its elective prey and we investigated its spatial and temporal interactions with prey species from December 2012 to November 2014 in the Ligurian Alps (Southern Alps, Italy). In this area, the wolf is the only large predator, and there is a rich wild ungulate community consisting of four species. Our analyses showed that the most consumed species by wolves were the wild boar (Sus scrofa) and the roe deer (Capreolus capreolus). To successfully hunt these species, wolves need to share their spatial range, searching for them in the most suitable habitat types and in the periods of the diel cycle during which they are mainly active. Fallow deer (Dama dama) and chamois (Rupicapra rupicapra) consumption was low, and wolves showed also relatively low overlap with these species. Our results suggest that wolves might be firstly specialized on wild boar predation, as they showed substantial spatial and temporal overlap with this species, and secondly on roe deer predation, especially during the denning season when they probably take advantage of the presence of fawns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the “forest-specialist” pine marten Martes martes has been reported to also occur also in largely fragmented, lowland landscapes of north-western Italy. The colonization of such an apparently unsuitable area provided the opportunity for investigating pine marten ecological requirements and predicting its potential south- and eastwards expansion. We collected available pine marten occurrence data in the flood plain of the River Po (N Italy) and relate them to 11 environmental variables by developing nine Species Distribution Models. To account for inter-model variability we used average ensemble predictions (EP). EP predicted a total of 482 suitable patches (8.31% of the total study area) for the pine marten. The main factors driving pine marten occurrence in the western River Po plain were the distance from watercourses and the distance from woods. EP suggested that the pine marten may further expand in the western lowland, whilst the negligible residual wood cover of large areas in the central and eastern plain makes the habitat unsuitable for the pine marten, except for some riparian corridors and the pine wood patches bordering the Adriatic coast. Based on our results, conservation strategies should seek to preserve remnant forest patches and enhance the functional connectivity provided by riparian corridors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thanks to protection by law and increasing habitat restoration, wolves ( Canis lupus ) are currently re-colonizing Europe from the surviving populations of Russia, the Balkan countries, Spain and Italy, raising the need to update conservation strategies. A major conservation issue is to restore connections and gene flow among fragmented populations, thus contrasting the deleterious consequences of isolation. Wolves in Italy are expanding from the Apennines towards the Alps, crossing the Ligurian Mountains (northern Italy) and establishing connections with the Dinaric populations. Wolf expansion is threatened by poaching and incidental killings, mainly due to livestock depredations and conflicts with shepherds, which could limit the establishment of stable populations. Aiming to find out the factors affecting the use of livestock by wolves, in this study we determined the composition of wolf diet in Liguria. We examined 1457 scats collected from 2008 to 2013. Individual scats were genotyped using a non-invasive genetic procedure, and their content was determined using microscopical analyses. Wolves in Liguria consumed mainly wild ungulates (64.4%; in particular wild boar Sus scrofa and roe deer Capreolus capreolus ) and, to a lesser extent, livestock (26.3%; in particular goats Capra hircus ). We modeled the consumption of livestock using environmental features, wild ungulate community diversity, husbandry characteristics and wolf social organization (stable packs or dispersing individuals). Wolf diet varied according to years and seasons with an overall decrease of livestock and an increase of wild ungulate consumption, but also between packs and dispersing individuals with greater livestock consumption for the latter. The presence of stable packs, instead of dispersing wolves, the adoption of prevention measures on pastures, roe deer abundance, and the percentage of deciduous woods, reduced predation on livestock. Thus, we suggest promoting wild ungulate expansion, the use of prevention tools in pastures, and supporting wolf pack establishment, avoiding lethal control and poaching, to mitigate conflicts between wolf conservation and husbandry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After centuries of population decline and range contraction, gray wolves (Canis lupus) are now expanding in Europe. Understanding wolf social structure and population dynamics and predicting their future range expansion is mandatory to design sound conservation strategies, but field monitoring methods are difficult or exceedingly expensive. Noninvasive genetic sampling offers unique opportunities for the reliable monitoring of wolf populations. We conducted a 9-year-long monitoring program in a large area (approximately 19,171 km²) in northern Italy, aiming to identify individuals, estimate kinship, reconstruct packs, and describe their dynamics. Of 5,065 biological samples (99% scats), we genotyped and sexed 44% reliably using 12 unlinked autosomal microsatellites, 4 Y-linked microsatellites, and a diagnostic mitochondrial DNA control-region sequence. We identified 414 wolves, 88 dogs, and 16 wolf x dog hybrids. Wolves in the study area belonged to at least 42 packs. We reconstructed the genealogy of 26 packs. The mean pack size was 5.6 ±2.4 SD, including adoptees, with a mean minimum pack home range of 74 km ² ± 52 SD. We detected turnovers of breeding pairs in 19% of the packs. Reproductive wolves were unrelated and unrelated dispersers founded new packs, except for 1 pack founded by a brother-sister pair. We did not detect multiple breeding females in any packs. Overall, the population was not inbred. We found significant isolation by distance and spatial autocorrelation, with nonrandom genetic structure up to a distance of approximately 17 kin. We detected 37 dispersers, 14 of which became breeders in new or already existing packs. Our results can be used to model habitat use by wolves, to estimate survival rates, to predict future expansion of the wolf population, and to build risk maps of wolf-human conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]