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Purpose: As governments force electricity producers to use more renewable energy sources, over a hundred thermal power plants in high-income countries turned to biomass as a partial or complete replacement for coal. Is the co-firing technology appropriate for Vietnam? Method: The technology assessment study is conducted by building an integrated lifecycle model of the sector, tracking material and financial flows from fuel sourcing to airborne emissions, simulating the economics, environmental and social implications of blending 5% of rice straw in two different existing coal power plants in Vietnam. Findings: The business value of co-firing is positive –straw is cheaper than coal–. It is likely not large enough to motivate the stakeholders. Co-firing creates an external social benefit by reducing air-borne pollution and creating jobs. It reduces the pollution caused by open field straw burning. We found the external social benefit to be several times larger than the private business value. Within that external benefit, the social value of avoided SO2, PM2.5 and NOx emissions dominates the social value of avoided CO2 emissions. The net job creation effect is positive: collecting straw creates more employment than using less coal destroys. Originality and limitations: This is the first technology assessment of co-firing biomass in coal power plants in Vietnam and one of the first for a subtropical middle-income country. The study only considers rice straw, and it does not address the role of government nor the biomass market functioning. Conclusion: The price of coal is the primary determinant of co-firing business value. There is an empirical economic justification for a public intervention to promote co-firing biomass in Vietnam. Local air quality goals, rather than greenhouse gas reduction policy, can justify such regulations.

International audience; The wind power sector took off in Vietnam after the feed-in tariff was raised to 8.5 UScents / kWh for onshore projects in 2018. As of March 2021, 113 wind projects with total capacity 6,038MW have signed a power purchase agreement. Most are expected to enter commercial operation before December 2021. We explore here three scenarios for wind power development in Vietnam through 2030. It argues that by 2030 the wind power installed capacity in the New Normal could be around 17 GW onshore and 10 GW offshore. In a Factor Three scenario, offshore wind reaches 21 GW by 2030. This has three policy implications. First, Vietnam's next power development plan provides an important opportunity to increase at low costs the level of ambition of wind power development. Second, flexibility should be the guiding principle of the plan. Third, to realize the large potential of offshore wind power, infrastructure planning has to start soon.

In early 2021, Vietnam���s Ministry of Industry and Trade released for public discussion the draft Power Development Plan VIII describing how the country will produce its electricity for the next ten years. Focused on developing gas-fired power, the draft reuses a renewable energy development strategy elaborated six years ago. That strategy was ambitious then but is now outdated by an ongoing solar and wind boom. Obsolete before publication, the draft fails to plan the ongoing energy transition which is all about PV, wind, storage, transport electrification, and increasing climate policy goals. To remain relevant in the energy transition era, quinquennial planning update has to become more agile., This policy note discusses Vietnam's Power Development Plan 8 initial proposal (March 2021). Includes the table of installed capacity goals by technology and energy source for 2025 and 2030. Data was obsoleted by the following two PDP8 proposals in October, November and the final approved version.

PurposeThe authors estimate the reduction of electricity poverty in Vietnam. The essential argument is that human development is about subjective feeling as much as technology and income.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a self-reported satisfaction indicator as complementary to objective indicators based on national household surveys from 2008 to 2018.FindingsIn 2010, the fraction of households with access to electricity was over 96%. However, over 24% declared their electricity use did not meet their needs. Since 2014, the satisfaction rate is around 97%, even if 25% of the households used less than 50 kWh/month. Today there is electricity for all in Vietnam, but electricity bills weigh more and more in the budget of households.Practical implicationsThe subjective energy poverty measure allows better international statistics: unlike poverty or needs-based criteria, self-assessed satisfaction of needs compares across income levels and climates.Social implicationsInequalities in electricity use among Vietnamese households decreased during the 2008–2018 period, but are not greater than inequalities in income, contrary to the findings of Son and Yoon (2020).Originality/valueEngineering and econometric objectivist approaches dominate the literature on sustainability monitoring. Out of 232 sustainable development goal (SDG) indicators, only two are subjective. Yet the findings show that subjective indicators tell a different part of the story. Access is not grid building, but the meaningful provision of electricity to satisfy the needs.

International audience; Vietnam's Power Development Plan 7A authorized many new coal power plants projects, implying an increase of greenhouse gases emissions from 90 MtCO2eq/year today to 360 MtCO2eq/year in 2030. How could co-firing technology-that is the partial substitution of coal by biomass-contributes to mitigate that problem? In this study, we assess the costs and potentials of co-firing rice residues in present and planned coal power plants in Vietnam using a spatially explicit optimization model: BeWhere, adapted as recursive annual dynamic. We found that, the cost of CO2 emissions is the key parameter determining at what level the technology is used. A cost of CO2 emissions of 8 $/tCO2 mobilizes the maximum technical potential of the rice straw and husk domestic resource, with an annual emission reduction of 28 MtCO2eq/year by 2030. At this level, biomass co-firing contributes to an 8% emission reduction in the coal power sector with the abatement cost of 137 Million USD.

This report assigns official national administration unit codes to Vietnam GADM Shapefile 2018 at ward level. The output is a new shapefile with official administration unit codes. These codes allow to join geographical data in shapefile with social-economic data to perform spatial econometric analysis or graph the map of social economic data at ward level. The assigning process finishes with 11,154 out of 11,163 wards (99.91%) assigned official admin codes.

National audience; The target of 800 MW of wind power by 2020 is almost impossible to complete. Although there are many registered projects, there are only 4 projects with the total capacity of 160 MW coming into operation. Investors claimed that the current price of wind power is too low to have profit. However, it should be noted that raising the price of wind power is not easy since it adds pressure on the price of electricity which is already claimed too high for residential usage. In that context, localizing the production of wind turbines can provide solutions since it can improve financial efficiency without putting pressure on the price of wind power. However, what is the right path for Vietnam to develop its own wind turbine industry?; Mục tiêu 800 MW điện gió vào năm 2020 đến nay gần như không thể hoàn thành. Mặc dù có rất nhiều dự án đăng ký nhưng mới có 4 dự án với tổng công suất 160 MW đi vào hoạt động. Nguyên nhân theo các nhà đầu tư là do giá của điện gió hiện nay quá thấp nên không có hiệu quả về tài chính. Tuy nhiên cũng cần nhận thấy việc tăng giá mua điện gió trong bối cảnh hiện nay là không hề dễ dàng khi nó tạo thêm áp lực lên giá bán điện vốn đã là vấn đề bức xúc của đại đa số người dân. Trong bối cảnh đó, nếu có thể nội địa hóa quá trình sản xuất tua-bin gió thì có thể nâng cao hiệu quả tài chính mà không gây áp lực lên giá mua điện gió. Tuy nhiên, đâu là con đường phù hợp cho Việt Nam để phát triển được nền công nghiệp tua-bin gió của chính mình?

Rice husk gasification (RHG) has been increasingly paid attention in rice-producing countries. Nevertheless, information related to this technology remains small and fragmented. In this paper, the status of RHG has been summarized, highlighting domestic and industrial applications, as well as a scientific review. Moreover, an experimental parametric study was performed to measure: a) the influence of temperature and heating rate on RH pyrolysis, and b) the role of temperature, partial pressure, and heating rate on RHG, under H2O or CO2 atmosphere. Regarding pyrolysis, an increase in the final pyrolysis temperature lowers the RH char yield but does not have much effect on the char morphology. Regarding gasification, an increase in the reaction temperature from 900 to 1000°C accelerates about 4.8 and 7 times the char conversion rate, under 0.2 atm of CO2 or H2O, respectively. The conversion rate decreases about 1.8 times when CO2 partial pressure decreases from 1 to 0.2 atm, and about 1.6 times when H2O partial pressure decreases from 0.4 to 0.1 atm. At 900°C and 0.2 atm, steam gasification was about 3.5 times faster than Boudouard reaction.

International audience; Open field burning of rice straw regularly contributes to severe air quality issues affecting millions of inhabitants in the city of Ha Noi. We examine how much replacing open field burning by co-firing mitigates local air pollutants and greenhouse gases emissions. We select two coal power plants located in the North of Vietnam as specific examples. Our findings show that co-firing straw in these plants at 5% mixing ratio on heat basis can reduce greenhouse gas emission as well as air pollutant emissions (SO 2 , PM10 and NO x) from 3% up to 13%. We examined the social value of these emission reductions using external costs factors. The health benefits of improving air quality by disposing of straw at a large coal power plant instead of open field burning are over ten million USD per year. This is the same order of magnitude as the technical costs of co-firing. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction benefits appear smaller.

International audience

International audience; Access to clean and affordable energy for all is the seventh sustainable development goal. This manuscript examines the state of access to electricity for all in Vietnam, based on national households surveys conducted in the time period 2008-2014. Our theoretical contribution to debates on energy poverty is to account for the human dimension by using an self-reported satisfaction indicator. We argue that subjective energy poverty indicators –designed from surveys asking people if they had enough electricity to meet their households needs– are as relevant as objective indicators –from engineering or economic data. While objectivity is laudable, development is not only about technology and money: measuring human satisfaction matters.We find that in Vietnam, the problem of providing access to clean energy for all is largely solved for now: the fraction of households without access to electricity is below two percent, the median level of electricity usage in 2014 was 100 kWh per month per household, and the fraction of households declaring unsatisfied electricity needs is below three percent. We also find that electricity is becoming a heavier burden in Vietnamese households’ finances. In 2010, the electricity bill exceeded 6% of income for 2.4% of households, but in 2014 that number reached 5.5% of households.Electricity is affordable for all in Vietnam today, but this could be compromised if electricity tariffs increase in order to finance further clean development of the energy system. We quantify how this problem could be attenuated by making the retail tariff of electricity much more progressive. We define a more progressive block tariff that provides free access to 30 kWh basic need per household, while increasing the cost for other blocks. This could increases the revenue for EVN by 15% and at the same time decrease the electricity bill for the 28% of households who use less than 80 kWh per month.

Conférence invitée - Vulgarisation - Formation continue; International audience

International audience; Vietnam plans to develop dozens of new coal-fired power generation units over the next 20 years. If they are indeed build, in order to avoid a dangerous level of global warming, it may appear necessary to dispose of these plants' CO2 by burying it in deep underground geological formations instead of releasing it into the atmosphere, using carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. We show that CCS has a technical potential in Vietnam, according to the geology and the industrial geography. To discuss under which economics conditions this potential could actualize, we examine two scenarios for 2050. In the first scenario, CO2 is used in Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) only. EOR technology makes CCS cheaper by injecting CO2 in partially depleted oil field, aiming to recover more oil. The second scenario considers CCS deployment in coal-based power plants, on top of using it for EOR. In both scenarios, a few gas-fired CCS power plants are build, reaching 1 GW in 2030, supported by Enhanced Oil Recovery and international carbon finance. The decision point where the two scenarios diverge is in 2030. A scenario to switch all currently existing or planned power plants to low-carbon by 2050 is to retrofit 3.2 GW of coal-fired capacity and install 1.2 GW of gas-fired capacity with CCS every year, starting in 2035 for 15 years. Capture readiness would lower the costs of using CCS in Vietnam, but is not mandatory today.

International audience

National audience; Household electricity consumption potentially offers economies of scale, since lighting, cooling or cooking can be shared among household members. This idea needs to be tested empirically. Under an increasing block tariff schedule the marginal and average price of electricity increases with total consumption. Does this effect offset economies of scale in the larger families? This paper uses data from Vietnam Household Living Standard Survey (VHLSS) in 2010, 2012 and 2014 to investigate whether there are economies of scale for Vietnam household electricity consumption in that period. The data will be tested formally by an OLS model and checked robustness by visualization of local linear regressions. Estimated results and robustness check confirm that in general, economies of scale do exist for household electricity consumption in Vietnam from 2010-2014.

Planning for the deployment of carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS), infrastructure must consider numerous uncertainties regarding where and how much CO2 is produced and where captured CO2 can be geologically stored. We used the SimCCS engineering-economic geospatial optimization models to determine the characteristics of CCS deployment in France and corridors for pipelines that are robust to a priori uncertainty in CO2 production from industrial sources and CO2 storage locations. We found a number of stable routes that are robust to these uncertainties, and thus can provide early options for pipeline planning and rights-of-way acquisition.

Restoration programs need to increasingly address both the restitution of biodiversity and ecosystem services and the preparation of habitats for future climate change. One option to adapt habitats to climate change in the temperate zone is the translocation of southern populations to compensate for climate change effects - an option known as assisted migration (AM). Although AM is widely criticized for endangered species, forest managers are more confident that tree populations can be translocated with success because of previous experiences within native ranges. Here, we contend that translocations of tree populations are also subject to uncertainties, and we extract lessons for future programs of AM within species ranges from a well-documented failed case of population translocation of Pinus pinaster Ait. in Europe. The failure of these translocations originated from the unawareness of several unpredictable ecological and social events: cryptic maladaptation of the introduced populations, underestimation of climate variability differences between the source and target sites and complexity in the management schemes, postponing decisions that could have been undertaken earlier. Under the no-analog conditions that are expected with climate change, management decisions need to be made with incomplete data, implying that a certain degree of maladaptation should always be expected when restoring plant populations from local or external seed sources.

We estimated the human cost of failures in the CCS industry in 2050, using the actuarial approach. The range of expected fatalities is assessed integrating all steps of the CCS chain: additional coal production, coal transportation, carbon capture, transport, injection and storage, based on empirical evidence from technical or social analogues. The main finding is that a few hundred fatalities per year should be expected if the technology is used to avoid emitting 3.67 GtCO 2 yr-1 in 2050 at baseload coal power plants. The large majority of fatalities are attributable to mining and delivering more coal. These risks compare to today's industrial hazards: technical, knowable and occupational dangers for which there are socially acceptable non-zero risk levels. Some contemporary European societies tolerate about one fatality per thousand year around industrial installations. If storage sites perform like that, then expected fatalities per year due to leakage should have a minor contribution in the total expected fatalities per year: less than one. But to statistically validate such a safety level, reliability theory and the technology roadmap suggest that CO 2 storage demonstration projects over the next 20 years have to cause exactly zero fatality.

This report summarizes the results of eight local studiesconducted from 2013 to 2016 by members of Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance (VSEA).The studies were conducted in six coal-fired power plants, one coal waste dump site andone ash pond embankment. They are located in the North, the Centre and the South ofVietnam with an emphasis on the Quang Ninh province, where most coal reserves ofVietnam are.; This report shows the impacts of coal mining and coal-based electricity generation on theVietnamese society and environment.Five impacts categories were examined: water, air and soil pollution, local people’s livelihoodand health. We studied impacts now and extrapolated according to Vietnam’s current PowerDevelopment Plan –namely PDP VII revised– which prescribes to expand the coal-firedpower capacity from about 10 GW today in 2015 to 55 GW by 2030. Results show that coalmining and coal-based electricity generation have high, unsustainable, local impacts. Ourstudies found that levels of dust in the air systematically exceeded the legal safe standards.So did the level of heavy metals and other toxic pollutants in the water we studied. Weobserved resettlement issues which were not solved appropriately, and local job creationpromises which were not followed up in action. We assess that by 2030, Vietnam’s coalpower plants would create 30 million tonnes of coal ash to be disposed.We estimate that the PDP VII entails importing at least 50 million tonnes of coal per year in2030. This would compromise energy independence, creating national security risks. Weargue further that a fivefold expansion of coal power generation capacity is incompatible withthe humanity’s goal of stabilizing climate change below 2°C of global warming. In conclusion,we propose engineering and public policy recommendations towards the green growthstrategy of Vietnam, which would better integrate the country in the world’s energy transitiontowards a low carbon society.

The Clean Energy and Sustainable Development laboratory – CleanED – was established in December 2014 with support from USTH and French Embassy in Hanoi. In September 2015, CleanED lab counted five researchers from France and Vietnam, five doctoral fellows and two internationally qualified staff. This international and interdisciplinary research team gets the mission to contribute to the green growth of the energy sector in Vietnam. Its expertise ranges from engineering to public policy on:Natural resources characterization and managementBiomass and waste to energy conversion process technologiesEnergy systems optimization from smart grid to national plans

National audience; Đồng đốt sinh khối với than là công nghệ tận dụng sinh khối để phát điện với mức chi phí thấp hơn rấtnhiều so với việc xây dựng nhà máy điện sinh khối. Đồng đốt giúp giảm bớt tác động của nhiệt điện thanđến kinh tế, môi trường và xã hội. Việt Nam có tiềm năng phát triển công nghệ này do có tiềm năng lớn vềsinh khối cũng như do Việt Nam sẽ tiếp tục phát triển các nhà máy nhiệt điện than trong vòng 2 thập kỷ tớitheo như Quy hoạch điện mới nhất.Trong số các công nghệ đồng đốt, đồng đốt trực tiếp là công nghệ phù hợp nhất đối với điều kiện Việt Namhiện nay. Mặc dù tỉ lệ đồng đốt thấp nhưng chi phí chuyển đối thấp nhất và có thể tận dụng hầu hết cácloại sinh khối. Việt Nam có nguồn sinh khối dồi dào, đặc biệt là nguồn phụ phẩm, phế phẩm nông nghiệp.Đây là các nguồn sinh khối nên được cân nhắc sử dụng trước tiên cho đồng đốt. Viên nén sinh khối cũnglà một lựa chọn tốt cho đồng đốt xét về các đặc tính kỹ thuật cũng như nguồn cung trong nước. Tuy nhiêngiá cả của viên nén chưa thực sự cạnh tranh được với than cũng như với nguồn phụ phẩm phế phẩm nôngnghiệp.Hiệu quả về mặt kinh tế của đồng đốt sinh khối với than sẽ cao hơn tại các nhà máy có các điều kiện nhưsau: sử dụng lò đốt than, tiếp cận được với nguồn cung sinh khối ổn định và có mức giá cạnh tranh, có giáthan cao, có các điều kiện ưu tiên về thị trường cũng như cơ chế đối với sử dụng năng lượng tái tạo vàgiảm rác thải. Việt Nam nên bắt đầu thí điểm với các nhà máy nhiệt điện than nằm tại các vùng có trữlượng sinh khối cao, thuận lợi cho việc thu gom và vận chuyển sinh khối, sử dụng than nhập khẩu có nguồncung than không ổn định và giá than cao như Vĩnh Tân 2, Duyên Hải 1, Long Phước 1...; hoặc các nhàmáy sắp hết thời gian khấu hao như Ninh Bình, Uông Bí hay Phả Lại 1 để tận dụng cơ sở hạ tầng sẵn có.Phân tích trường hợp đồng đốt 5% rơm với than tại nhà máy nhiệt điện Ninh Bình cho thấy đồng đốt đãmang lại hiệu quả kinh tế cho nhà máy trong điều kiện không có cơ chế chính sách hỗ trợ cho đồng đốtcũng như chưa có thị trường cacbon và doanh thu từ bán tro xỉ than. Mặt khác, lợi ích mà đồng đốt đemlại cho xã hội cũng như môi trường là rất đáng kể, đặc biệt là đối với người nông dân và sức khỏe cộngđồng. Các lợi ích này, nếu có cơ chế chia sẽ hợp lý sẽ có thể hỗ trợ cho nhà máy áp dụng đồng đốt đạthiệu quả cao hơn về mặt kinh tế.

International audience

Part A was prepared by Vietnam Sustainable Energy Alliance(VSEA), leading by the Clean Energy and Sustainable Developmentlab (CleanED/USTH), as a technical summary of the full report.Editor in Chief & Technical Editor of the full report: Jean-Philippe DenruyterThe full report has been prepared by Intelligent Energy Systems PtyLtd (IES) and Mekong Economics (MKE) in relation to provisionof services to World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF).; Although electricity from renewable resources, primarilyfrom hydro energy, has been increasing in Vietnam inthe last two decades, fossil fuel-based electricity stilldominates the power generation system in the country.The share of power generation capacity from coal andgas was nearly 54% in 2015 . This share is expected to further increase in the coming yearsbased on the official power development plan of Vietnam, despite Vietnamese fossil energyresources being scarce, with its oil and gas reserves likely to be depleted in the few decadesto come . Hence, a necessary question is: could Vietnam be successful in achieving a lowcarbon power system and pursue a low carbon economy in the next few decades? Or willthe country continue its dependence on fossil fuels?The Intelligent Energy Systems Pty Ltd (“IES”) and Mekong Economics (“MKE”) werecommissioned by WWF – Greater Mekong Programme Office (“WWF-GMPO”) toundertake a project called “Power Sector Vision: Alternatives for power generation inthe Greater Mekong Sub-region”. This was to develop scenarios for the power sectorof countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) that are in line with WWF’s GlobalEnergy Vision that outlines a 100% renewable energy supply by 2050. The objectivesof WWF’s energy vision are: (i) contribute to reduction of global greenhouse emissions(reduction by >80% based on1990 levels by 2050); (ii) reduce dependency on unsustainablehydro and nuclear power; (iii) enhance energy access; (iv) take advantage of new technologiesand solutions; (v) enhance power sector planning frameworks: multi-stakeholder participatoryprocess; and (vi) develop enhancements for energy policy frameworks.The purpose of Power Sector Vision report is to provide detailed country-level descriptionsof three scenarios for the power sector of the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam (Viet Nam):• Business as Usual (BAU) power generation development path which is based oncurrent power planning practices, current policy objectives.• Sustainable Energy Sector (SES) scenario, where measures are taken to maximallydeploy renewable energy and energy efficiency measures to achieve a near-100%renewable energy power sector; and• Advanced Sustainable Energy Sector (ASES) scenario, which assumes a more rapidadvancement and deployment of new and renewable technologies as compared to theSES.The scenarios were based on public data, independent assessments of resource potentials,information obtained from published reports and power system modelling of the GMSregion for the period 2015 to 2050.

The main purpose of this proposal was to provide the necessary tools to address a particular case ofadaptation and mitigation of forests to climate change in Western Europe: the translocation of treepopulation to compensate for climate change (Assisted Migration; AM).Tree populations have been moved with different purposes before, and we started analyzing theseparticular cases in Europe. In particular, we analyzed a well-document failed case of populationtranslocation of Pinus pinaster Ait from the Iberian peninsula to southern France, which entailed anenormous economic loss that led to the only case where the use of foreign tree populations wasprohibited by the European Union, which otherwise promotes the free exchange of seeds betweenecologically matched sites (EU Council Directive 1999/105/EC of 22 December 1999). An opinionpaper (Restoration Ecology 2013) and a reply letter (Bioscience 2013) are related to theseexperiences analyzing translocations in the past.A second step was devoted to propose new scenarios for translocations in the future based on climatedata and the fitness (measured as the volume/year as recorded in NFI). To do that, we producedscenarios (theoretical representation) of assisted migration actions for two important candidates forAM in Europe: Pinus pinaster and Pinus halepensis. We harmonized the Spanish and FrenchNational Forest Inventories for standing volume and mortality, which allowed us to run modelscovering Western Europe. Target zones were selected from provenances with high sensitivity andseed zones from provenances with low sensitivity to climate change; the latter can be considered“seed refugia” as the climate changes. Three plausible scenarios for translocation to the target zonewere developed on the basis of volume simulations calibrated with different planting Abies albastrategies: 1) seeds only from foreign provenances; 2) foreign provenances plus local seeds; and 3)only local seeds. Our results suggested that volume and mortality trends were not always correlatedwith seed sources and targets, that projected provenances mortality do not follow always asouthern-northern pattern and that seed refugia, if any, may be useful for compensating for the effectsof climate change only in a subset of provenances (this approximation has been published in thejournal New Forests 2015).To evaluate which native forests are likely candidates for AM we estimated the vulnerability of thenative species in Western Europe including the sensitivity, the exposure and the adaptive capacity ofthe major tree species in ecological models for creating scenarios for current climatic conditions andfuture ones. The results of these simulations are considering for publication in the journal EcologicalApplications. Our results suggest that management programs should be different for mountainconifers populations occurring at their rear-edge of their distribution that need to be sampled moreintensively to preserve their genetic resources compared to lowland widespread temperate specieswhere vulnerabilities seem lower and populations more homogeneous. Likewise, for rear-edgepopulations, ex-situ programs considering some compensation for climate change (assistedProject No.: 327778Period number: 1stRef: 327778_AMECO_Final_Report11_20151222_165135_CET.pdfPage - 3 of 11migration) may be essential to preserve the populations for which conditions become too harsh butthat may have a better chance in higher latitudes and altitudes.The adaptation of socio-ecological systems to climate change depends not only on the evolutionarypotential of natural populations but on the decisions taken by social actors that mediate naturalprocesses. To succeed in moving trees to compensate for climate change the development of adecision framework based on variations in tree fitness in relation with climate is a priority. In trees,provenance trials provide new insights to understand the future of populations under climate change.We use data from an European network of 33 provenance tests of Abies alba planted in 5 sites inFrance to predict spatial variation in tree height at 9 years old in the present and in the near future.We integrated the outputs of the height tree model in combination with the ones of habitat suitabilityfor each of the climate scenarios in a decision framework to guide assisted colonization tocompensate for climate change. We apply three decision rules to cope with the uncertain states of theworld represented by four climate change scenarios showing that there is no unique ‘best decision’and that the general recommendation of mixtures of populations, although probably not the mostproductive, can reduce uncertainty in the long term by allowing natural forests to evolve.

International audience Visions of a low carbon society

This text describes the social aspects of Total’s CO2 integrated capture, transport and storage pilot project in southwestern France, from the initial press conference February 8th, 2007 to the formal opening in January 2010. The economic and social context was favorable. The company conducted a significant outreach campaign. It was followed by an effective involvement of stakeholders, if not of the general public, through a formal continuous deliberation process led by the public authorities.

International audience; A bottom-up Integrated Resource Planning model is used to examine the economic potential of renewable energy in Vietnam's power sector. In a baseline scenario without renewables, coal provides 44% of electricity generated from 2010 to 2030. The use of renewables could reduce that figure to 39%, as well as decrease the sector's cumulative emission of CO2 by 8%, SO2 by 3%, and NOX by 4%. In addition, renewables could avoid installing 4.4 GW in fossil fuel generating capacity, conserve domestic coal, decrease coal and gases imports, improving energy independence and security. Wind could become cost-competitive assuming high but plausible on fossil fuel prices, if the cost of the technology falls to 900 US$/kW.

International audience; The METSTOR project offers a methodology to look for potentially interesting CO2 storage areas in France at the initial stage, before the "site selection" step. Our tool, embodied in a Geographic Information System, is based on an interactive map of CO2 storage capacities. Other relevant information layers are included. The geographic layers are complemented with a series of online technical notices. It seems to be the first open online GIS that offers policy makers, businesses and the public at large an integrated access to that necessary information. Our prototype, limited mainly to the Paris Basin, is released online at www.metstor.fr.

International audience; Looking back over three and a half Assessment Reports, we see that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has given increasing attention to the management and reporting of uncertainties, but coordination across working groups (WGs) has remained an issue. We argue that there are good reasons for working groups to use different methods to assess uncertainty, thus it is better that working groups agree to disagree rather than seek to bring everybody on one party line.

International audience; The technology of co-firing biomass with coal is well-matured as demonstrated in many power plants in Europe and the US. It is considered as a relatively low-cost technology to utilize biomass in power generation as well as to reduce the greenhouse gases emissions and coal consumption in coal power plants. However, biomass co-firing is still a new concept in the context of Vietnam energy sector. By 2030, the capacity of coal power plants in Vietnam will be expanded to 75 GW, which accounts for 57% of total power generation. This will increase the greenhouse gases emissions and pose a great challenge on coal supply for Vietnam. This research aims to evaluate the feasibility and sustainability of co-firing biomass in coal power plants in Vietnam. The assessment is conducted using a set of indicators, which is divided into four categories: technical, economical, environmental and social aspects. The feasibility and sustainability assessment is then applied to a case study, a newly constructed 1000 MW fluidized bed coal power plant in Quang Ninh Province. In the case study, direct co-firing technology with 5% of biomass co-fired percentage is selected for the evaluation of the indicators.

International audience; This Project was one of the first integrated CCS projects in the world at this scale, and the first to be authorised in France. The social dynamics of this project were particularly interesting at the local level. The CO 2 storage site was close to a fairly densely populated area-the city of Pau and it's neighboring cities had nearly 150,000 inhabitants in 2007. The CCS chain started at the Lacq Industrial Facility (located 30km from the injection site). The communities around the Industrial Facility have been living for over 50 years with a high level of industrial activity near their homes, however, the communities nearest the storage area, tend to be semi-urban or rural with less familiarity of industry. After describing the local context, this chapter presents the local actors and describes the " concertation " 1 process that was led both before and after the official permit request for the Lacq Pilot Project. The final sections of the report present the results of a survey of the Jurançon population and the analysis of the press coverage from their project. 01: During a field visit

This document is the R&Dialogue French national dialogue council discussion paper. The French national dialogue started in July 2014 and will end in February 2015. The discussion paper is the result of the discussions between the council members organized by thematic groups: i. wind power: social acceptance and difficulties; ii. oil and dependence; iii. energy transition and European construction; iv. territorial organization of the energy transition. The final and plenary meeting of the French national council will be the opportunity to present the thematic common visions to all its members. This manuscript is a first version of these common visions of the energy transition.

This document is the R&Dialogue French national dialogue council vision paper. The French national dialogue started in July 2014 and ended in February 2015. The vision paper is the result of the discussions between the 47 council members organized by thematic groups: i. wind power: social acceptance and difficulties; ii. oil and dependence; iii. energy transition and European construction; iv. territorial organization of the energy transition. The final and plenary meeting of the French national council was the opportunity to present the thematic common visions to all its members. This manuscript – available in French and English – is the final and agreed version of these common visions of the energy transition.

International audience; This paper summarizes expert opinions regarding crucial factors that mayinfluence Vietnam’s future use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) based onface-to-face interviews in December 2013 with 16 CCS-related experts fromthe Vietnamese government, research institutes, universities and the energyindustrial sector. This study finds that financial incentives and climate policyare the most important factors for the development of CCS technologies inVietnam in the next two decades. Financial incentives involve direct subsidiesfrom the government, such as tax exemptions for land use and the importationof CCS-related equipment. In addition, all the experts agree that internationalfinancial support is important to initiate a large deployment of CCStechnologies in Vietnam by implementing demonstrative/pilot projects to proveCCS’s working efficiency.

PACITA Conference at Berlin, Germany; International audience; Rice husks are the indigestible coatings of grains of rice. They are produced in large quantities by the rice milling industry, more than 1 million ton per year in Cambodia. In recent years, Cambodian enterprises have installed gasifiers, which burn rice husks to generate electricity. This is a two stage process: the biomass is first fed into a gasifier which produces syngas and ashes, then the syngas is cleaned and burned into an engine where it saves diesel fuel. Our study describes the sustainability challenges for deploying these technologies: how much does it depends on government intervention and on the state of the electricity market? What are the impacts of the gaseous, liquid and solid wastes? What are benefits for the local companies in term of profits, jobs and technology transfer?

International audience; Learning – i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty – plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.

Learning—i.e. the acquisition of new information that leads to changes in our assessment of uncertainty—plays a prominent role in the international climate policy debate. For example, the view that we should postpone actions until we know more continues to be influential. The latest work on learning and climate change includes new theoretical models, better informed simulations of how learning affects the optimal timing of emissions reductions, analyses of how new information could affect the prospects for reaching and maintaining political agreements and for adapting to climate change, and explorations of how learning could lead us astray rather than closer to the truth. Despite the diversity of this new work, a clear consensus on a central point is that the prospect of learning does not support the postponement of emissions reductions today.

Rice husks are the indigestible coatings of grains of rice. They are produced in large quantities by the rice milling industry, more than 1 million ton per year in Cambodia. In recent years, Cambodian enterprises have installed gasifiers, which burn rice husks to generate electricity. This is a two stage process: the biomass is first fed into a gasifier which produces syngas and ashes, then the syngas is cleaned and burned into an engine where it saves diesel fuel. Many of these enterprises have been in local communities currently without electricity or in fuel poverty. To learn more about the benefits and drawbacks of using rice-husk gasifiers, and to study about the sustainability challenges for deploying these technologies, the Clean energy and sustainable development lab (CleanED lab) of the University of Science and Technology of Hanoi (USTH), and the SNV Netherlands Development Organisation (SNV) have conducted a visit of several rice mills and rural electricity enterprises from 18 th to 22nd December 2014. Five rice mills and a rural electricity enterprise in Battambang, Siem Reap and Kampong Thom provinces were selected for the field survey. In addition with desk research, semi-structured interviews with gasifier users, with the representatives of Canadia Bank PLC and the Federation of Cambodian Rice Millers Association (FCRMA) during the field surveys were also conducted. This report present and justifies the main conclusions of the visit.

International audience; Problem: Should we use seeds from warmer locations to adapt forests to climate change ? We define assisted migration as the project to translocate populations to compensate for observed or future climate changes. It is justified since the pace of climate change is too rapid for most populations to track changing climates. The idea of assisted migration questions the current paradigm in forestry management, which is that local provenances are always the best first choice. The cases of Oak and Pine populations in France illustrate the timeliness but also the dangers of this idea.Method: A decision-making framework based on imprecises probabilities and multiple worldviews is used, which accounts for rationality and precaution. We represent the deep uncertainty on climate change by using worldviews on long term climate change based on simulations of 3 RCP scenarios and 3 climate models.Data: Experimental data from the British Columbia Ministry of Forests and Range's lodgepole pine provenance test, which consists of 140 populations tested at 62 sites, were used. An incomplete testing design tested 60 of the 140 populations at each site, so that each population was tested at 30–40 sites. Total height was measured at 43 of the 62 sites in autumn 2005, after 32 field growing seasons (35 growing seasons from seed).Conclusions: We find that assisted migration is already a policy issue. Our work illustrates a decision making criteria that is both rational and precautionary, by focusing on trades between two options instead of focusing on a choice considering each option in isolation . Canadian data was much easier to access and use than French. Early results points that assisted migration could be considered in higher latitute stations.Early results for assisted migration in higher latitude stations

The paper investigates a climate-economy model with an iso-elastic welfare function in which one parameter gamma measures relative risk-aversion and a distinct parameter rho measures resistance to intertemporal substitution. We show both theoretically and numerically that climate policy responds differently to variations in the two parameters. In particular, we show that higher gamma but lower rho leads to increase emissions control. We also argue that climate-economy models based on intertemporal expected utility maximization, i.e. models where gamma = rho, may misinterpret the sensitivity of the climate policy to risk-aversion., Ce papier examine un modèle économie-climat avec une fonction de bien être isoélastique dans laquelle un paramètre gamma mesure l'aversion relative au risque et un paramètre distinct rho mesure la résistance à la substitution intertemporelle. Nous montrons théoriquement et numériquement que la politique climatique optimale répond différement à ces deux paramètres. En particulier, nous montrons que c'est une augmentation de gamma ou une diminution de rho qui conduit à des réductions d'émissions plus strictes. Nous concluons que les modèles économie-climat basés sur la maximisation de la somme intertemporelle actualisée de l'utilité espérée, c'est à dire les modèles dans lesquels rho = gamma, sous-estiment la sensibilité de la politique climatique à l'aversion au risque.

International audience; We explore the consequences of an earlier phase-out of Ozone Depleting Substances, starting ten years before the Montreal Protocol. Atmospheric chemistry simulations verify the effectiveness of such an early-action scenario: stratospheric chlorine abundance remains below the level at which the ozone hole was discovered, even though countries are permanently allowed to continue using ODS to a non-negligible extent. A sectorally detailed technico-economic analysis finds that the additional cost of the earlier action scenario would have been moderate. We conclude that the Montreal Protocol was only partially successful at precaution: global atmospheric environmental problems could be regulated before surprising non-linearities occur.

This paper examines the consequences of various attitudes towards climate damages through a family of stochastic optimal control models (RESPONSE): cost-effectiveness for a given temperature ceiling; cost-benefit analysis with a “pure preference for current climate regime” and full cost-benefit analysis. The choice of a given proxy of climate change risks is actually more than a technical option. It is essentially motivated by the degree of distrust regarding the legitimacy of an assessment of climate damages and the possibility of providing in due time reliable and non controversial estimates. Our results demonstrate that (a) for early decades abatement, the difference between various decision-making frameworks appears to matter less than the difference between stochastic and non stochastic approach given the cascade of uncertainty from emissions to damages; (b) in a stochastic approach, the possibility of non-catastrophic singularities in the damage function is sufficient to significantly increase earlier optimal abatements; (c) a window of opportunity for action exists up to 2040: abatements further delayed may induce significant regret in case of bad news about climate response or singularities in damages.

International audience; The portfolio of approaches to respond to the challenges posed by anthropogenic climate change has broadened beyond mitigation and adaptation with the recent discussion of potential climate engineering options. How to define and categorize climate engineering options has been a recurring issue in both public and specialist discussions. We assert here that current definitions of mitigation, adaptation and climate engineering are ambiguous, overlap with each other and thus contribute to confusing the discourse on how to tackle anthropogenic climate change. We propose a new and more inclusive categorization into five different classes: anthropogenic emissions reductions (of short-lived climate agents and long-lived greenhouse gases, abbreviated AER, territorial or domestic removal of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (D-GGR), trans-territorial or trans-boundary removal of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases (T-GGR), regional to planetary targeted climate and environmental modification (TCM), and climate change adaptation measures (including local targeted climate and environmental modification, abbreviated CCAM). Thus, we suggest that techniques for domestic greenhouse gas removal might better be thought of as forming a separate category alongside more traditional mitigation techniques that consist of emissions reductions. Local targeted climate modification can be seen as an adaptation measure as long as there are no detectable remote environmental effects. In both cases, the scale and intensity of action are essential attributes from the technological, climatic and political viewpoints. Whilst some of the boundaries in this revised classification depend on policy and judgement, it offers a foundation for debating on how to define and categorize climate engineering options and differentiate them from both mitigation and adaptation measures to climate change.