1. Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments
- Author
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Squarzoni‐Diaw, Cécile, Arsevska, Elena, Kalthoum, Sana, Hammami, Pachka, Cherni, Jamel, Daoudi, Assia, Karim Laoufi, Mohamed, Lezaar, Yassir, Rachid, Kechna, Seck, Ismaïla, Ould Elmamy, Bezeid, Yahya, Barry, Dufour, Barbara, Hendrikx, Pascal, Cardinale, Eric, Muñoz, Facundo, Lancelot, Renaud, Coste, Caroline, Animal, Santé, Territoires, Risques et Ecosystèmes (UMR ASTRE), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Département Systèmes Biologiques (Cirad-BIOS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Centre National de Veille Zoosanitaire en Tunisie (CNVZ), Ministère de l'agriculture, du développement rural et de la pêche, Office National de Sécurité Sanitaire des Produits Alimentaires [Maroc] (ONSSA), FAO Regional Office for Africa [Accra] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Ministère de l’Élevage et des Productions Animales [Dakar], Office National de Recherche et de Développement de l’Elevage (ONARDEL), Ecole nationale Veterinaire d'Alfort (ENVA) (EpiMAI USC Epi), École nationale vétérinaire d'Alfort (ENVA)-Laboratoire de santé animale, sites de Maisons-Alfort et de Dozulé, Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES)-Agence nationale de sécurité sanitaire de l'alimentation, de l'environnement et du travail (ANSES), and This research was partially funded by France Vétérinaire International, the French Ministry of Agriculture, the EU—FMD programme and Cirad, research unit ASTRE.
- Subjects
animal movements ,[SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] ,Évaluation du risque ,L73 - Maladies des animaux ,Facteur de risque ,Analyse du risque ,Surveillance épidémiologique ,Transmission des maladies ,risk mapping ,Cartographie ,Migration animale ,risk assessment ,transboundary animal diseases ,Maladie transfrontière ,B10 - Géographie ,approches participatives ,Maladie des animaux ,[SDV.SA.SPA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Animal production studies ,Maladie infectieuse ,U30 - Méthodes de recherche - Abstract
International audience; This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed through regional training action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field, and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk-based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high-risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision support tool for risk-based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce-data environments.
- Published
- 2021
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