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Background: COVID-19 is responsible for increasing deaths globally. As most people dying with COVID-19 are older with underlying long-term conditions (LTCs), some speculate that YLL are low. We aim to estimate YLL attributable to COVID-19, before and after adjustment for number/type of LTCs, using the limited data available early in the pandemic. Methods: We first estimated YLL from COVID-19 using WHO life tables, based on published age/sex data from COVID-19 deaths in Italy. We then used aggregate data on number/type of LTCs in a Bayesian model to estimate likely combinations of LTCs among people dying with COVID-19. We used routine UK healthcare data from Scotland and Wales to estimate life expectancy based on age/sex/these combinations of LTCs using Gompertz models from which we then estimate YLL. Results: Using the standard WHO life tables, YLL per COVID-19 death was 14 for men and 12 for women. After adjustment for number and type of LTCs, the mean YLL was slightly lower, but remained high (11.6 and 9.4 years for men and women, respectively). The number and type of LTCs led to wide variability in the estimated YLL at a given age (e.g. at ≥80 years, YLL was >10 years for people with 0 LTCs, and

Examining annual variation in the age-crime curve as a way to better understand the recent crime drop, this paper explores how the age distribution of convicted offending changed for men and women in Scotland between 1989 and 2011. This analysis employs shaded contour plots as a method of visualizing annual change in the age-crime curve. Similar to recent findings from the USA, we observed falling rates of convicted offending for young people, primarily owing to lower rates of convicted offending for young men. In contrast to the US literature we also find increases in the rate of convicted offending for those in their mid-twenties to mid-forties, which are relatively greater for women than men. Analysis of annual change shows different phases in the progression of these trends, with falls in prevalence during the 1990s reflecting lower rates of convictions for acquisitive crime, but falls between 2007 and 2011 being spread across multiple crime types. Explanations of the crime drop in Scotland and elsewhere must be able to account for different patterns of change across age, sex, crime type and time.

Examining annual variation in the age–crime curve as a way to better understand the recent crime drop, this paper explores how the age distribution of convicted offending changed for men and women in Scotland between 1989 and 2011. This analysis employs shaded contour plots as a method of visualizing annual change in the age–crime curve. Similar to recent findings from the USA, we observed falling rates of convicted offending for young people, primarily owing to lower rates of convicted offending for young men. In contrast to the US literature we also find increases in the rate of convicted offending for those in their mid-twenties to mid-forties, which are relatively greater for women than men. Analysis of annual change shows different phases in the progression of these trends, with falls in prevalence during the 1990s reflecting lower rates of convictions for acquisitive crime, but falls between 2007 and 2011 being spread across multiple crime types. Explanations of the crime drop in Scotland and elsewhere must be able to account for different patterns of change across age, sex, crime type and time.

Regression models and interpretation of intrinsic estimator coefficients. Table S1. Goodness-of-fit statistics for single and two factor regression models and APC model. Table S2. Goodness-of-fit statistics for single and two factor regression models and APC model by Carstairs deprivation category. (PDF 305Â kb)

Examining annual variation in the age–crime curve as a way to better understand the recent crime drop, this paper explores how the age distribution of convicted offending changed for men and women in Scotland between 1989 and 2011. This analysis employs shaded contour plots as a method of visualizing annual change in the age–crime curve. Similar to recent findings from the USA, we observed falling rates of convicted offending for young people, primarily owing to lower rates of convicted offending for young men. In contrast to the US literature we also find increases in the rate of convicted offending for those in their mid-twenties to mid-forties, which are relatively greater for women than men. Analysis of annual change shows different phases in the progression of these trends, with falls in prevalence during the 1990s reflecting lower rates of convictions for acquisitive crime, but falls between 2007 and 2011 being spread across multiple crime types. Explanations of the crime drop in Scotland and elsewhere must be able to account for different patterns of change across age, sex, crime type and time.

Figure S1. Drug-related deaths in Scotland as determined by different definitions. Figure S2. Age and period ranges for birth cohorts available in the drug-related deaths dataset, 1979–2013. Figure S3. European age-standardised drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland, 1979–2013, by sex. Figure S4. European age-standardised drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland, 1979–2013, by sex and deprivation. Figure S5. Age distribution of crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland over periods 1979–1996 and 1997–2013 combined data by sex. Figure S6. Smoothed shaded contour plot of age-specific crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population in Scotland for each single age from 18 to 86 years of age and each year from 1982 to 2010 stratified by sex. Figure S7. Age distribution of crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland over periods 1979–1996 and 1997–2013 combined data by sex and deprivation. Figure S8. Smoothed shaded contour plot of age-specific crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population in Scotland for each single age from 18 to 81 years of age and each year from 1982 to 2010 stratified by sex and deprivation. Figure S9. Crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland by age (five-year age groups, for ages 15–89 years), period (five-year periods 1979–83 to 2009–13) and sex. (PDF 384 kb)

Figure S1. Drug-related deaths in Scotland as determined by different definitions. Figure S2. Age and period ranges for birth cohorts available in the drug-related deaths dataset, 1979–2013. Figure S3. European age-standardised drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland, 1979–2013, by sex. Figure S4. European age-standardised drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland, 1979–2013, by sex and deprivation. Figure S5. Age distribution of crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland over periods 1979–1996 and 1997–2013 combined data by sex. Figure S6. Smoothed shaded contour plot of age-specific crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population in Scotland for each single age from 18 to 86 years of age and each year from 1982 to 2010 stratified by sex. Figure S7. Age distribution of crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland over periods 1979–1996 and 1997–2013 combined data by sex and deprivation. Figure S8. Smoothed shaded contour plot of age-specific crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population in Scotland for each single age from 18 to 81 years of age and each year from 1982 to 2010 stratified by sex and deprivation. Figure S9. Crude drug-related death rates per 100,000 population per year in Scotland by age (five-year age groups, for ages 15–89 years), period (five-year periods 1979–83 to 2009–13) and sex. (PDF 384 kb)

Intrinsic estimator statistics. Table S1. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for females. Table S2. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for males. Figure S1. Intrinsic estimator coefficients with 95% confidence intervals for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland stratified by sex. Table S3. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for females living in the most deprived quintile. Table S4. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for females living in the less deprived four quintiles. Table S5. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for males living in the most deprived quintile. Table S6. Intrinsic estimator coefficient statistics for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for males living in the less deprived four quintiles. Figure S2. Intrinsic estimator coefficients with 95% confidence intervals for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for females stratified by deprivation. Figure S3. Intrinsic estimator coefficients with 95% confidence intervals for age, period and birth cohorts for drug-related deaths in Scotland for males stratified by deprivation. (PDF 1151Â kb)