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Introducción: Los conductores de taxi están propensos a una serie de factores de riesgo asociados a múltiples enfermedades, producto del sometimiento a estilos de vida no saludables. Objetivo: Estimar factores predictores del sobrepeso y obesidad en conductores de taxi, según variables socioeconómicas y dimensiones del estilo de vida. Metodología: Estudio cuantitativo, observacional, transversal, explicativo, llevado a cabo en un universo de 131 taxistas hombres, que trabajan en la ciudad de Azogues-Ecuador, aplicando la Escala del Estilo de Vida junto con la medición del peso y la talla de los participantes para obtener el índice de masa corporal. El análisis estadístico recurrió a métodos univariados (frecuencias, medidas de tendencia y dispersión) y multivariados (regresión logística binomial). Resultados: participantes de 35 a 42 años (45.8%), casados (90.84%), conducen más de 8 horas diarias (72.5%), con sobrepeso u obesidad (83.2%), llevan un estilo de vida no saludable global del 86.3%. La regresión logística mostró buen ajuste del modelo para las 3 variables incluidas: alimentación (OR = 1.53), apoyo interpersonal (OR = 0.454) y horas de conducción diarias (OR = 4.078). Discusión: Ser conductor de taxi es una actividad de riesgo para la salud que puede generar sobrepeso u obesidad, condiciones que pueden ser predichas por factores del estilo de vida y por condiciones laborales propias de esta actividad.

La conceptualización de los modelos matemáticos es una tarea difícil para los profesionales sanitarios que se dedican a tareas clínicas. Uno de los más utilizados es la regresión logística binaria (RLB). Nuestro objetivo en este artículo es tratar de acercar y de hacer comprender a los clínicos, la historia, el substrato matemático y la utilidad predictiva de la RLB. La función logística no es más que un modelo lineal, en el que a diferencia de la ecuación de la recta, la variable resultado es el logaritmo natural de una odds ratio observada, y las variables predictoras poseen unos coeficientes “ β ” que también son los logaritmos naturales de las odds ratio observadas en el trabajo científico que estemos llevando a cabo. La función logística se adapta muy bien a fenómenos clínico-biológicos, por ejemplo, la aparición de la epidemia de SIDA en los Estados Unidos de América o la curva de disociación de la hemoglobina. Cuando el ordenador nos ofrece los valores de los coeficientes para nuestras variables predictoras, nos está dando una función de tipo logístico que nos permite predecir si las observaciones futuras van a poder ser clasificadas en una u otra categoría de la variable resultado binaria. Cada modelo de RLB tiene su equivalente en un área bajo la Curva ROC determinada (Teoría de las Pruebas diagnósticas). Cuando generamos un diagnóstico médico o enfermero, realmente estamos aplicando un modelo de RLB. En Framingham se utilizaron por primera vez dentro de la investigación epidemiológica.

Fundamento: la diabetes mellitus tipo 2 constituye una epidemia en aumento y supone una carga económica sustancial para los sistemas de salud. Detectar la enfermedad en una etapa temprana ayuda a reducir los costos médicos y el riesgo de que los pacientes tengan problemas de salud más complicados. Objetivo: diseñar un modelo matemático para la predicción de la probabilidad de existencia de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 en pacientes atendidos en un hospital de Guayaquil, Ecuador. Método: se realizó un estudio descriptivo y transversal. La población estuvo conformada por 324 pacientes. El procedimiento estadístico se basó en la aplicación de la regresión logística binaria. Para evaluar la capacidad predictiva del modelo, se empleó la prueba Kappa de Cohen. Resultados: la hipertensión arterial fue un factor de riesgo positivo para la diabetes mellitus tipo 2, con un coeficiente de probabilidad de 1,415. Los antecedentes familiares positivos incidieron en el aumento de la probabilidad. El consumo de alcohol fue un factor de riesgo positivo y el coeficiente de 0,790 indicó cuánto contribuyó al aumento de la probabilidad. El coeficiente Kappa, tuvo un valor de 0,434; con T aproximada de 7,809 y p < 0,001, indicó mayor prevalencia que sesgo y una mayor concordancia entre lo predicho en el modelo y lo observado. Conclusiones: la presencia de hipertensión arterial, antecedentes familiares positivos y el consumo de alcohol fueron factores significativos que aumentaron la probabilidad de desarrollar diabetes mellitus tipo 2. Es importante la detección temprana y la gestión de estos factores de riesgo en la prevención y el manejo de la enfermedad.

In Peru, tuberculosis is among the first 15 causes of death in the entire nation and is considered endemic. The problem of abandoning treatment emerges as a major challenge in their fight. In this sense, the objective of this study was to design an efficient binary logistic regression model on sociodemographic factors for the prediction of abandonment of tuberculosis treatment in Peruvian patients. It was an observational, cross-sectional, and analytical research, where we worked with 362 subjects who made up the control and case groups. A data collection form was used, and data processing was carried out with the statistical programs RStudio and IBM SPSS Statistics. It is concluded that the male gender presents a higher proportion of cases of pulmonary tuberculosis, increasing the probability of harm when faced with associated factors. The length of hospitalization and the lack of clear information about laboratory tests are risks for abandoning treatment and the consumption of hallucinogenic substances also increases the probability of abandonment. It is concluded that there is a notable absence of evaluations with a predictive approach since most previous studies have adopted a purely explanatory approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Response surface methodology (RSM) consists of mathematical and statistical techniques to develop models which help to understand the influence of various factors on a dependent variable of interest. The feasibility of RSM use to detect cases of periodontitis and its correlated factors has not yet been evaluated. This study developed mathematical models for periodontitis diagnosis independent of periodontal probing using the RSM. Demographic, socioeconomic, behavioral, systemic, local factors, and periodontitis were assessed in 176 volunteers. Periodontitis case was defined according to three different definitions: 1) ≥3 sites with clinical attachment level (CAL) ≥4 mm; 2) at least one site with CAL ≥4 mm and bleeding on probing; 3) ≥2 proximal sites with CAL ≥3 mm and ≥2 proximal sites with probing depth (PD) ≥4 mm (not on the same tooth) OR 1 site with PD ≥5 mm. 4th-degree polynomial equations showed high coefficients of determination (R²= 1) and were used to represent the mathematical models of periodontitis cases. According to definition 1, the diagnosis of periodontitis was accurate by including in the model: age, sex, education level, plaque index (PI), number of missing teeth, previous hygiene instructions, and body mass index (BMI). According to definition 2, the diagnosis of periodontitis was accurate by including in the model: age, sex, education level, income, PI, previous oral hygiene instructions, frequency of brushing and type of toothbrush, and use of mouthwash in the model. For an accurate diagnosis of periodontitis according to definition 3, the model included: age, education level, IP, number of missing teeth, previous oral hygiene instruction, BMI, and diabetes. The multifactorial mathematical models were able to diagnosis periodontitis according to different periodontitis case definitions using only variables of easy evaluation and non-invasive. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate the prevalence of diabetes mellitus and associated factors in adults. Survey carried out with 1,637 individuals in urban and rural areas of the municipality of Rio Branco, state of Acre. Diabetes was defined by the presence of fasting plasma glucose = 126 mg/dl or the use of oral hypoglycemic agents or insulin. Association measures were estimated by hierarchical logistic regression. The prevalence of diabetes was 6.5% (n = 202). After analysis, the chance of being diabetic was independently and positively associated with age = 60 years (OR: 6.67; 95%CI: 1.83-24.30); family history of diabetes mellitus (OR: 2.88; 95%CI: 1.43-5.81); increased waist circumference (OR: 1.83; 95%CI: 1.01-3.33); dyslipidemia (OR: 2.95; 95%CI: 1.34-6.49); anemia (OR: 3.15; 95%CI: 1.30-7.60); and chronic kidney disease (CKD) (OR: 4.00; 95%CI: 1.70-9.33). A prevalence of 6.5% was detected, with diabetes associated with age, family history, anemia, and CKD. The need for adequate screening of comorbidities in these patients is indicated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Introducción: El Bajo Peso al Nacer (BPN) tiene múltiples causas y continúa siendo un problema que afecta diferentes regiones de Colombia. Objetivo: Determinar los factores asociados con BPN en el Hospital Universitario Departamental de Nariño. Materiales y métodos: Estudio de casos y controles que incluyó madres y recién nacidos, cuyo parto fue atendido entre noviembre de 2014 y junio de 2015. Resultados: El riesgo de BPN fue mayor en mujeres con edad entre 10-19 años (OR=7,79, IC95%=2,61-23,23), con antecedente de infección vaginal durante el embarazo (OR=4, IC95%=1,26-12,66), nivel educativo primaria incompleta (OR=10,93, IC95%=1,51-79,13) o primaria completa (OR=2,94, IC95%=1,06-8,13), afiliadas al régimen de salud subsidiado (OR=4,96, IC95%=1,71-14,41). El riesgo de tener un recién nacido con BPN se redujo un 10% (OR=0,90, IC95%=0,84-0,96) por cada incremento en una unidad de Índice de Masa Corporal y un 76% (OR=0,23, IC95%=0,16-0,34) por cada incremento en una semana de gestación. Conclusiones: La mayoría de factores de riesgo identificados pueden ser prevenidos o intervenidos precozmente desde un enfoque de salud pública.

Fundamento: la deserción escolar debe ser analizada en un contexto multivariado para identificar sus causas y efectos, de ningún modo debe ser atribuida a una sola causa. Objetivo: determinar la capacidad predictiva de algunos factores sobre la deserción escolar de estudiantes de Medicina, a través de un modelo de regresión logística múltiple. Métodos: se realizó un estudio analítico, predictivo en 87 estudiantes de Medicina matriculados en el curso 2015-2016. Se aplicaron métodos teóricos y empíricos y se realizó en dos etapas: en la primera se identificaron las variables más asociadas a la deserción escolar a través de un análisis bivariado; y en la segunda, se analizó la capacidad de estas variables para predecir la deserción a través de la regresión logística (análisis multivariado). Resultados: en el análisis bivariado, nueve variables mostraron relación significativa con la deserción escolar; al someterlas al análisis multivariado (correlación y regresión logística), solo cuatro mantuvieron la significación estadística, por lo que finalmente fueron las escogidas como variables predictoras. Conclusiones: la deserción escolar en estudiantes de la carrera de Medicina puede predecirse por la combinación sinérgica de los cuatro predictores: dedicarle al estudio menos de 15 horas por semana, el sexo femenino, la repitencia escolar y el bajo rendimiento académico en Morfofisiología.

Copyright of Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo is the property of Revista Iberoamericana de Estudios de Desarrollo and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Con los retos organizacionales que han propuesto fenómenos como la globalización, clientes cada vez más exigentes y la digitalización de productos y servicios, es necesario poner a disposición de estas organizaciones modelos de gestión logística que puedan responder ante tales desafíos. En ese orden de ideas y por medio de una revisión de la literatura analítica, se exponen las siguientes medidas de desempeño logístico; la Medición de indicadores de desempeño de niveles estratégico, táctico y operativo de Gunasekaran; la medición de indicadores de desempeño en los procesos de la cadena logística; el modelo de SCOR (Supply Chain Operations Reference); y el modelo de referencia de logístico (LMR) de Donald Bowersox, comentando sus principales características de tal manera que tanto académicos como quienes toman las decisiones en el área logística al interior de las organizaciones tengan una herramienta cognoscitiva que les permita elegir el modelo que se adapte a sus necesidades. Los hallazgos principales se vinculan con una descripción sucinta de los modelos logísticos, haciendo aportes en lo académico y en lo práctico, exhortando a futuras investigaciones para que profundicen en mayor medida estas medidas del ámbito logístico organizacional.

A cross-sectional study was carried out to evaluate the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapies and the factors associated with it, in the province of Coronel Portillo (Ucayali) during 2013. A total of 917 surveys were carried out among household heads in three districts of the province (Callería, Manantay and Yarinacocha), in which the proportion of CAM use was calculated and the relationship with sociodemographic variables (age, sex, educational level, marital status, occupation and income) was analyzed. From the total, 179 respondents (19.5%) mentioned that they used CAM in the last 12 months. A statistically significant relationship was found between the use of CAM therapies and educational level (p 0.001), respondent’s occupation (p 0.001) and monthly income (p 0.001). Future research will define the found associations and the variables involved.

Objetivo: O presente artigo tem como objetivo analisar a associação entre características sociodemográficas e de saúde e o grau de dificuldade de locomoção dos idosos, no Brasil. Método: Foi utilizado o modelo de chances proporcionais parciais e os dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013. Resultados: Na análise ajustada, observou-se maior grau de dificuldade de locomoção entre idosos mais velhos, não casados (OR=1/0,759=1,318;p-valor

Introduction: Extreme prematurity is associated with high mortality rates. The probability of death at different points in time is a priority for professionals and parents, and needs to be established on an individual basis. The aim of this study is to carry out a systematic review of predictive models of mortality in premature infants that have been published recently. Methods: A double search was performed for article published in PubMed on models predicting mortality in premature neonates. The population studied were premature neonates with a gestational age of ≤30 weeks and/or a weight at birth of ≤1500 g. Works published with new models from June 2010 to July 2019 after a systematic review by Medlock (2011) were included. An assessment was made of the population, characteristics of the model, variables used, measurements of functioning, and validation. Results: Of the 7744 references (1st search) and 1435 (2nd search) found, 31 works were selected, with 8 new models finally being included. Five models (62.5%) were developed in North America and 2 (25%) in Europe. A sequential model (Ambalavanan) enables predictions of mortality to be made at birth, 7, 28 days of life, and 36 weeks post-menstrual. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed on 87.5% of the models. The population discrimination was measured using odds ratio (75%) and the area under the curve (50%). “internal validation” had been carried out on 5 models. Three models can be accessed on-line. There are no predictive models validated in Spain. Conclusions: The making of decisions based on predictive models can lead to the care given to the premature infant being more individualised and with a better use of resources. Predictive models of mortality in premature neonates in Spain need to be developed. Resumen: Introducción: La prematuridad extrema se asocia a altas tasas de mortalidad. Para profesionales y familias, es prioritario establecer de forma individualizada las probabilidades de muerte en diferentes momentos. El objetivo de este estudio es efectuar una revisión sistemática de modelos predictivos de mortalidad en prematuros publicados recientemente. Métodos: Doble búsqueda de artículos publicados en PubMed sobre modelos predictivos de muerte en prematuros. Población estudiada: prematuros con edad gestacional ≤30 semanas o peso al nacer ≤1.500 g. Inclusión: trabajos publicados con nuevos modelos desde junio del 2010 hasta julio del 2019, tras revisión sistemática de Medlock (2011). Se valoran: población, características de modelos, variables utilizadas, medidas de funcionamiento y validación. Resultados: De 7.744 referencias (primera búsqueda) y 1.435 (segunda búsqueda), se seleccionaron 31 trabajos, incluyéndose al final 8 nuevos modelos. Cinco modelos (62,5%) se desarrollaron en América del Norte y 2 (25%) en Europa. Un modelo secuencial (Ambalavanan) permite realizar predicciones de muerte al nacer, 7, 28 días de vida y 36 semanas posmenstruales. Análisis de regresión logística múltiple en el 87,5% de modelos. La discriminación poblacional se midió por odds ratio (75%) y área bajo la curva (50%). La «validación» se ha realizado en 5 modelos (interna). Tres modelos disponen de acceso online. No hay modelos predictivos validados en España. Conclusiones: La toma de decisiones basada en modelos predictivos permite una mayor individualización de la atención dada a un niño prematuro y una mejor utilización de recursos. Es necesario desarrollar modelos de predicción de mortalidad en prematuros de España.

Introdução: Transplante renal (TR) é a terapia renal substitutiva (TRS) de escolha para pacientes com doença renal crônica (DRC). Entretanto, nem todo TR é bem-sucedido e alguns pacientes persistem em TRS. Objetivo: Modelar uma regressão logística com covariáveis de risco pré e pós-TR preditora da disfunção secundária do aloenxerto com necessidade de TRS ou alcance ao estágio V da DRC até os primeiros seis meses pós-TR. Métodos: Coorte com receptores transplantados realizado em hospital no Nordeste brasileiro. Analisou-se registros médicos dos TR realizados entre 2011-2018. Receptores com dados insuficientes ou que abandonaram seguimento foram excluídos. Foram analisadas covariáveis: demográficas; infecciosas; comorbidades pré e pós-TR; painel de reatividade; incompatibilidades de HLA; episódios de rejeições agudas mediadas por células-T ou por anticorpos; exames laboratoriais seis meses pós-TR. Resultados: Receptores idosos (OR:1,41; IC95%:1,01-1,99), tempo entre início da TRS e TR (∆T-TRS&TR)>10 anos (OR:3,54; IC95%:1,27-9,87), diabetes mellitus (DM) pré-TR (OR:3,35; IC95%:1,51-7,46), pielonefrite (OR:2,45; IC95%:1,24-4,84), nefropatia por poliomavírus (OR:4,99; IC95%:1,87-13,3), RAMA (OR:4,82; IC95%:1,35-17,2), proteinúria de 24h (Pt24h) ≥300mg/24h (OR:5,05; IC95%:2,00-12,7) e cálcio sérico (Ca)10anos, DM pré-TR e agressões até seis meses pós-TR (pielonefrite, nefropatia por poliomavírus, RAMA, Pt24h≥300mg/24h e Ca

El objetivo de este trabajo es identificar los factores que afectan a la compra de un seguro privado en México, tanto en la población rural como en la urbana. Se ha estimado un modelo logístico con múltiples variables explicativas que se han obtenido de la Encuesta Nacional de Inclusión Financiera (ENIF) 2018. Los resultados muestran que la probabilidad de tener un seguro es mayor cuanto mayores son los ingresos y, especialmente, si estos tienen una periodicidad fija, y también cuanto más alto sea el nivel de estudios en el caso de la población urbana. La edad también es determinante, siendo la probabilidad de contar con un seguro más alta entre los mayores de 36 años para el caso urbano o para el tramo de edad comprendido entre los 46 y los 55 años para la población rural. Las características comunes a ambas poblaciones son que llevan un registro de gasto, que vivan acompañados, que usen telefonía móvil y que utilicen las corresponsalías bancarias.

Objetivo. Conocer la mortalidad por enfermedades tropicales desatendidas (ETD) de Argentina entre 1991 y 2016 y su tendencia temporal general y para las causas más frecuentes por edad y sexo. Métodos. Se calcularon las tasas de mortalidad por ETD brutas, específicas por edad y ajustadas por edad de Argentina para el período 1991-2016. Se realizó el análisis de la tendencia temporal mediante modelos de regresión joinpoint. Resultados. La mortalidad por ETD afecta principalmente a personas mayores de 50 años y a hombres. La tendencia de las tasas de mortalidad ajustadas por edad por ETD muestran un descenso estadísticamente significativo entre 1991 y 2016, con porcentaje medio de cambio anual (AAPC) para ambos sexos de -3,98 (IC 95%: -4,69; -3,25). Respecto a las enfermedades seleccionadas, la equinococosis muestra un descenso continuo de las tasas entre 1991-2016, mientras que en la enfermedad de Chagas pueden identificarse dos períodos, uno de descenso significativo (1991-2008) y otro no (2008-2016). En cuanto a la lepra, se observa un período de incremento brusco y significativo (1991-1998) seguido por otro período entre 1998-2016 de descenso significativo moderado. Las enfermedades seleccionadas se distribuyen fundamentalmente en el noroeste y noreste argentino, a excepción de la equinococosis. Conclusiones. Es significativa la tendencia decreciente de la mortalidad por ETD para ambos sexos. Se pone de relieve que, pese al descenso de los últimos años, la mortalidad por ETD representa un importante problema de salud pública.

La desnutrición infantil produce daños físicos e irreversibles en la capacidad cognitiva, trastornos del crecimiento, retrasos motores y cognitivos, disminución de la inmunidad y un aumento de la morbilidad y mortalidad. Este estudio estimó los factores asociados a la desnutrición en menores de cinco años en La Guajira, Colombia. Se realizó un análisis multivariado de corte transversal, a partir de la Encuesta Nacional de Salud Nutricional (ENSIN). Se estimó un modelo logit sobre los determinantes de la desnutrición global. La variable dependiente se construyó como el peso para la edad menor a dos desviaciones estándar. Se estimaron Odds Ratio (OR) ajustados por pesos muestrales para evaluar el riesgo de las variables independientes con sus valores de referencias. Entre los principales hallazgos, se estudiaron 622 niños menores de cinco años de La Guajira, de los cuales 52,7% fueron hombres y 55% vivían en zona rural. El 11,2% de los niños presenta desnutrición global. Ser el sexto hijo o posterior representa un mayor riesgo de desnutrición global (OR=4,07, IC95%=1,50–10,99), mientras que habitar viviendas con servicio de alcantarillado los protege de sufrir este tipo de desnutrición (OR=0,16, IC95%=0,05–0,57). No contar con servicio de alcantarillado y pertenecer a una familia numerosa resultan siendo características de contexto que se asocian con un mayor riesgo de desnutrición infantil en esta región. Afectar estos determinantes sociales permitirá hacer más eficiente la política de vigilancia y control de la desnutrición en este grupo etario.

Objetivo: O presente artigo tem como objetivo analisar a associação entre características sociodemográficas e de saúde e o grau de dificuldade de locomoção dos idosos, no Brasil. Método: Foi utilizado o modelo de chances proporcionais parciais e os dados da Pesquisa Nacional de Saúde 2013. Resultados: Na análise ajustada, observou-se maior grau de dificuldade de locomoção entre idosos mais velhos, não casados (OR=1/0,759=1,318;p-valor

ANTECEDENTES: La sepsis neonatal por bacterias gramnegativas tiene alta mortalidad; el tratamiento antibiótico empírico puede conducir a desenlaces adversos si es insuficiente o excesivo. OBJETIVO: Desarrollar y validar una calculadora capaz de estimar la probabilidad de que el agente causal de la sepsis neonatal sea una bacteria gramnegativa, con la aplicación de parámetros hematológicos medidos en el momento de la sospecha clínica. MATERIALES Y MÉTODOS: Estudio transversal y retrospectivo. Se analizaron los expedientes de los pacientes hospitalizados entre los años 2002 a 2019 en el Instituto Nacional de Pediatría, con diagnóstico de sepsis neonatal comprobada por cultivo. Rara identificar los parámetros hematológicos asociados con la sepsis neonatal causada por bacterias gramnegativas, se aplicó la técnica estadística de regresión logística binaria y como método de validación cruzada se utilizó el remuestreo de K-iteraciones. RESULTADOS: Se identificaron 103 casos de sepsis neonatal comprobada por cultivo, a quienes se practicó una biometría flemática en el momento de la sospecha clínica. La sepsis neonatal causada por bacterias gramnegativas fue predicha por la edad, anemia, concentración media de hemoglobina corpuscular, recuento plaquetario y leucocitario y volumen plaquetario medio. Se encontró asociación estadísticamente significativa entre el sexo femenino y la sepsis neonatal por Staphylococcus coagulasa negativo [OR = 2.11, IC95%: 1.08-4.11 ], trombocitopenia y sepsis neonatal de aparición tardía [OR = 2.1, IC95%: 1.71-2.58], anemia y sepsis neonatal por enterobacterias [OR = 3.27, IC95%: 1.22-8.76], trombocitopenia y sepsis neonatal por enterobacterias [OR = 3.62, IC95%: 1.28-10.17], y trombocitopenia con sepsis neonatal por Staphylococcus coagulasa negativo [OR=0.23, IC95%: 0.09-0.56]. CONCLUSIONES: Mediante la utilización de parámetros hematológicos medidos al momento de la sospecha clínica de sepsis neonatal es posible predecir la probabilidad de que el agente causal sea una bacteria gramnegativa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Resumo Introdução A tuberculose é uma doença endêmica em diversos países e sua ocorrência tem sido relacionada a situações de pior condição socioeconômica. Objetivo Analisar a distribuição espacial da tuberculose no município do Rio de Janeiro em 2006 e a associação entre ocorrência da doença e indicadores socioeconômicos. Método O setor censitário de residência do paciente foi georreferenciado a partir do endereço registrado no SINAN; intensidade de casos estimada a partir do estimador de Kernel. A associação entre variáveis socioeconômicas e existência de pelo menos um caso de tuberculose nos setores censitários foi avaliada por regressão logística. Resultados A base de dados final tinha 3.089 novos casos não institucionalizados. Identificou-se grande concentração de casos na Zona Norte e em pontos da Zona Sul. Na Zona Oeste, visualizou-se uma faixa de pontos desde Magalhães Bastos até Santa Cruz e Sepetiba. A intensidade de casos foi maior nas áreas mais carentes. No modelo final, permaneceram: percentual de domicílios particulares permanentes cuja pessoa responsável recebia 3 a 5 salários mínimos e o percentual de domicílios alugados. Conclusão A análise espacial identificou áreas de maior concentração de casos coincidente com áreas mais carentes. A má qualidade do registro dos endereços foi a principal limitação.

Resumo Introdução A retinopatia da prematuridade (ROP) é uma doença vasoproliferativa, que afeta a retina das crianças que nascem prematuramente; assim, este estudo propôs identificar fatores associados e predizer a retinopatia na prematuridade. Método Realizou-se um estudo transversal, com recém-nascidos prematuros, dividindo-os em dois grupos: com e sem retinopatia. As variáveis foram categorizadas por meio do teste da razão de verossimilhança e as variáveis que obtiveram p-valores menores que 0,2 foram analisadas por um modelo logístico múltiplo. A capacidade de predição do modelo foi realizada por meio da construção da curva ROC. Resultados Dos 296 recém-nascidos, 32 (10,81%) apresentaram retinopatia. No modelo logístico, as variáveis que apresentaram fator de risco foram idade gestacional ≤ 30 semanas (p-valor=0,0214), peso ao nascer ≤ 1.250 gramas (p-valor=0,0013) e escore Apgar no primeiro minuto < 7 (p-valor=0,0352). A curva ROC com sensibilidade 0,771 e especificidade 0,774 evidenciou o modelo com precisão de 0,8448 e ponto de probabilidade de 0,79. Conclusões Este modelo pode ser usado para predição de retinopatia em recém-nascidos prematuros com um fator de risco de 0,79, destacando que estes necessitam de maior atenção.

Introducción: la sepsis, por todos los eventos que desencadena afecta, de forma directa o indirecta, a la totalidad de los órganos. Es frecuente observar, en la evolución de estos enfermos, el desarrollo de disfunción o insuficiencia hepática que, rara vez, es diagnosticada, solo hasta que aparecen signos clínicos como ictericia o trastornos de la coagulación. Objetivo: diseñar un modelo predictivo de daño hepático en el paciente séptico. Método: se realizó un estudio observacional, de caso-control, retrospectivo y de desarrollo. Se tomaron 508 fallecidos con evidencias clínicas y anatomopatológicas de sepsis de la Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos que cumplieron los criterios de intencionalidad, de enero de 2006 hasta diciembre de 2015 en el Hospital “Manuel Fajardo Rivero”. De estos fallecidos se tomaron 100 casos y 100 controles. Resultados: las variables que quedaron incluidas en el modelo, después del análisis de regresión logística binaria, fueron: síndrome de disfunción múltiple de órganos, bilirrubina directa, fosfatasa alcalina, colesterol total, creatinina, razón internacional normalizada y plaquetas. Prueba de Hosmer-Lemeshow=1,867 y p=0,985. Sensibilidad de 57,69 y especificidad de 100. Valor predictivo positivo de 100 y un valor predictivo negativo de 68,57, índice de validez de 78,00. El área observada bajo la curva Receiver Operating Characteristic es de 0,922, con una significación asociada al estadígrafo calculado de 0,000. Conclusiones: el modelo demostró buena capacidad discriminatoria y ser un buen predictor de daño hepático en el paciente séptico.

A cross-sectional study was carried out to evaluate the use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) therapies and the factors associated with it, in the province of Coronel Portillo (Ucayali) during 2013. A total of 917 surveys were carried out among household heads in three districts of the province (Callería, Manantay and Yarinacocha), in which the proportion of CAM use was calculated and the relationship with sociodemographic variables (age, sex, educational level, marital status, occupation and income) was analyzed. From the total, 179 respondents (19.5%) mentioned that they used CAM in the last 12 months. A statistically significant relationship was found between the use of CAM therapies and educational level (p < 0.001), respondent's occupation (p < 0.001) and monthly income (p < 0.001). Future research will define the found associations and the variables involved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To propose a predictive model for the length of stay risk among children admitted to a pediatric intensive care unit based on demographic and clinical characteristics upon admission. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study conducted at a private and general hospital located in the municipality of Sao Paulo, Brazil. We used internal validation procedures and obtained an area under ROC curve for the to build of the predictive model. Results: The mean hospital stay was 2 days. Predictive model resulted in a score that enabled the segmentation of hospital stay from 1 to 2 days, 3 to 4 days, and more than 4 days. The accuracy model from 3 to 4 days was 0.71 and model greater than 4 days was 0.69. The accuracy found for 3 to 4 days (65%) and greater than 4 days (66%) of hospital stay showed a chance of correctness, which was considering modest. Conclusion: Our results showed that low accuracy found in the predictive model did not enable the model to be exclusively adopted for decision-making or discharge planning. Predictive models of length of stay risk that consider variables of patients obtained only upon admission are limit, because they do not consider other characteristics present during hospitalization such as possible complications and adverse events, features that could impact negatively the accuracy of the proposed model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social exclusion is a complex, multidimensional process which points to the persistence of a variety of deprivations in key dimensions of life, education among them. Working within this context, this paper studies determinants of exclusion in the educational dimension, specifically from its original degree (access), and seeks to evaluate whether they vary in relation to the socioeconomic conditions of the target population. To do this, logistic regression models were calculated using data from Argentina's Permanent Household Survey (PHS), in addition to information obtained from our own survey, performed in April of 2016 in three vulnerable communities of Bahía Blanca, Argentina. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To identify the prevalence and factors associated with inadequate milk consumption among adolescents. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study based on secondary data from the National School Health Survey (2012), a Brazilian survey carried out using a self-administered questionnaire in a representative sample of 9th-grade students from public and private schools. The frequency of milk intake and its association with socio-demographic characteristics, food consumption and physical activity were estimated. A descriptive and inferential analysis of factors associated with inadequate milk consumption (no consumption at least one of the seven days of the week) was performed. A multiple logistic model was adjusted to control confounders. Results: The sample included 108,828 adolescents and inadequate milk consumption ocurred in 58.9%. The Final model included nine variables independently associated with inadequate milk intake: breakfast frequency less than 4 days per week (odds ratio [OR]=2.40; p<0.001), unprocessed or minimally processed foods intake less than 5 days per week (OR=1.93; p<0.001), living in the northeast region (OR=1.39; p<0.001), less maternal schooling (OR=1.35; p<0.001), physical inactivity (OR=1.33; p<0.001), attending public school (OR=1.26; p<0.001), not being white (OR=1.14; p<0.001), being older than 14 years old (OR=1.13; p<0.001) and having a habit of eating meals while watching TV or studying (OR=1.04; p=0.036). Conclusions: Inadequate milk consumption is prevalent among Brazilian adolescents. The identification of associated factors suggests the need to develop nutritional guidance strategies for the prevention of diseases that result from low calcium intake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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El trabajo tiene como objetivo diagnosticar el funcionamiento del proceso logístico para así propiciar conocimiento científico que mejore la toma de decisiones en empresas de la biotecnología. Se tomó como referencia el Centro de Inmunología Molecular, institución biotecnológica cubana dedicada a la investigación-desarrollo, producción y comercialización de productos para el tratamiento del cáncer y otras enfermedades autoinmunes. El estudio se realizó mediante análisis de documentos; el uso de entrevistas y encuestas para evaluar el estado de la logística y criterio de expertos a través de la técnica Delphi. El proceso logístico es evaluado mediante tres modelos, combinación de: modelo de referencia para la logística competitiva, modelo general de organización y el modelo de aseguramiento al proceso. Con la aplicación de los modelos se perfeccionó la gestión de los procesos logísticos, se posibilitó la integración entre ellos, para brindar un mejor servicio al cliente de empresas de la biotecnología.

O estudo propôs a aplicação da modelagem com equações estruturais (MEE) para estudar variáveis associadas ao nascimento pré-termo com base em um modelo teórico analisado previamente pela regressão logística hierarquizada. Os dados foram provenientes da pesquisa observacional do tipo caso-controle populacional sobre nascidos vivos hospitalares de mães residentes em Londrina, Paraná, Brasil (junho de 2006 a março de 2007). Para a MEE foi considerada a associação de características socioeconômicas e aspectos psicossociais sobre história reprodutiva, trabalho e atividade física, intercorrências durante a gestação e características fetais. Considerou-se, ainda, a relação dessas associações sobre o desfecho nascimento pré-termo mediado pela adequação da assistência pré-natal. Foram utilizados estimadores de mínimos quadrados ajustados pela média e variância (WLSMV), para dados categóricos, e a máxima verossimilhança robusta (MLR), para obter razões de chances. Foram criadas três variáveis latentes: vulnerabilidade socioeconômica, vulnerabilidade familiar e não aceitação da gravidez. O efeito da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica, da família e da não aceitação da gravidez sobre a prematuridade ocorreu de modo indireto por meio da inadequação da assistência pré-natal. A metodologia proposta possibilitou utilizar construtos, verificar o papel de mediação da inadequação da assistência pré-natal e identificar efeitos diretos e indiretos das variáveis sobre o desfecho nascimento pré-termo.

Objective: To identify factors associated with asthma in Brazilian adolescents. Methods: Cross-sectional study based on data from the 2012 National Adolescent School-based Health Survey (PeNSE), a Brazilian survey applied by a self-reported questionnaire in a representative sample of 9th-grade students. Descriptive and inferential analysis was made based on the demographic, socioeconomic, clinical, food consumption and environmental characteristics potentially associated with asthma. Adolescents who presented wheezing in the last 12 months were considered asthmatic. A multiple logistic regression model was adjusted for confounding factors. Significance was defined as p≤0.05. Results: A total of 106,983 adolescents were studied. The prevalence of asthma was 23.2%. The final model was composed of 11 variables that were independently associated with asthma: female sex (OR=1.17), <14 years old (OR=1.12), not living with parents (OR=1.06), the highest number of days consuming ultra-processed foods (OR=1.16), lunch or dinner time without presence of parents or guardians (OR=1.13), meals in front of the TV or while studying (OR=1.18), not having breakfast frequently (OR=1.22), having smoked cigarettes (OR=1.36), having tried alcoholic beverage (OR=1.37), having used illicit drugs (OR=1.29) and having sought health care in the last year (OR=1.67). Conclusions: The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of asthma diagnosis. Prevention and control strategies should focus on groups of adolescents living in inadequate conditions when it comes to family dynamics, food consumption and behavior (drug use). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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RESUMO: Introdução: Um número crescente de estudos tem mostrado evidências consistentes dos efeitos nocivos da poluição do ar na saúde humana e afetando também o peso do recém-nascido. O objetivo deste estudo é avaliar o efeito da poluição do ar sobre o peso ao nascer, mais especificamente o peso insuficiente ao nascer (entre 2.500 e 2.999 g). Métodos: Trata-se de um estudo transversal com dados relativos a todos os nascidos de mães residentes no Município de São José dos Campos, São Paulo, nos anos de 2006 a 2010. Para examinar a associação entre exposição materna à poluição do ar e o peso ao nascer foi utilizada a regressão logística (univariada e múltipla), considerando-se a média da concentração de cada poluente do 1º e 3º trimestres e dos meses do 1º trimestre. Resultados: Do total de 39.453 nascidos vivos do período estudado, 10.542 (26,7%) recém-nascidos apresentaram peso insuficiente. Na análise logística múltipla, a exposição materna ao material particulado no 1º e 3º trimestre de gestação apresentou maior chance para o nascimento de uma criança com peso insuficiente. Há uma chance de 1,07 (IC95% 1,00 - 1,14) de ocorrência de peso insuficiente para exposição (ao 2o quartil) ao material particulado no 1º trimestre e de 1,10 (IC95% 1,04 - 1,18) para exposição (ao 3o quartil) no 3º trimestre. Conclusão: Os resultados da pesquisa indicam que a exposição materna no 1º e 3º trimestres de gestação à poluição do ar no município de São José dos Campos pode determinar o peso insuficiente de recém-nascidos.

ABSTRACT Purpose : This study was conducted to identify variables associated with mouth breathing diagnosis in children, based on multidisciplinary domains. Methods 119 children, six to 12 years old, underwent anamnesis, speech therapy (orofacial structures and stomatognathic functions), otorhinolaryngologic (OTRL) with clinical and endoscopic examinations, dental (occlusion) and physiotherapy (body posture and nasal patency) assessments. Nasal patency was evaluated using Peak Nasal Inspiratory Flow (PNIF) and the Nasal Obstruction Symptom Evaluation (NOSE) scale. A multiple logistic regression was performed considering breathing mode as the dependent variable and the co-variables from each multidisciplinary assessment as associated variables. Results Association with MB diagnosis was found in each professional domain with: nasal obstruction report (Odds ratio - OR=5.55), time of pacifier use (OR=1.25), convex facial type (OR=3.78), obtuse nasal angle (OR=4.30), half-open or open lip posture (OR=4.13), tongue position on the mouth floor (OR=5.88), reduced hard palate width (OR=2.99), unexpected contraction during mastication (OR=2.97), obstructive pharyngeal tonsils (OR=8.37), Angle Class II malocclusion (OR=10.85) and regular gingival maintenance (OR=2.89). Conclusion We concluded that a multidisciplinary diagnosis is important, given that each evaluation domain, including OTRL, dental and speech therapy, presented variables associated with MB diagnosis. Body posture and nasal patency variables were not associated with MB.

In the last decades, the use of the epidemiological prevalence ratio (PR) instead of the odds ratio has been debated as a measure of association in cross-sectional studies. This article addresses the main difficulties in the use of statistical models for the calculation of PR: convergence problems, availability of tools and inappropriate assumptions. We implement the direct approach to estimate the PR from binary regression models based on two methods proposed by Wilcosky & Chambless and compare with different methods. We used three examples and compared the crude and adjusted estimate of PR, with the estimates obtained by use of log-binomial, Poisson regression and the prevalence odds ratio (POR). PRs obtained from the direct approach resulted in values close enough to those obtained by log-binomial and Poisson, while the POR overestimated the PR. The model implemented here showed the following advantages: no numerical instability; assumes adequate probability distribution and, is available through the R statistical package.

OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of individuals at risk of dependence and its associated factors. METHODS The study was based on data from the Catalan Health Survey, Spain conducted in 2010 and 2011. Logistic regression models from a random sample of 3,842 individuals aged ≥ 15 years were used to classify individuals according to the state of their personal autonomy. Predictive models were proposed to identify indicators that helped distinguish dependent individuals from those at risk of dependence. Variables on health status, social support, and lifestyles were considered. RESULTS We found that 18.6% of the population presented a risk of dependence, especially after age 65. Compared with this group, individuals who reported dependence (11.0%) had difficulties performing activities of daily living and had to receive support to perform them. Habits such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and being sedentary were associated with a higher probability of dependence, particularly for women. CONCLUSIONS Difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living precede the onset of dependence. Preserving personal autonomy and function without receiving support appear to be a preventive factor. Adopting an active and healthy lifestyle helps reduce the risk of dependence.

Objective: To estimate the prevalence of weekly alcohol consumption in the young population and its socioeconomic determinants in the Montes de Maria sub-region. Methodology: Cross-sectional analytical study of 10,667 young people surveyed from 10 to 24 years old. We used tables of frequencies and measures of central tendency, dispersion and stratified position by sex and age groups. A logistic model of dichotomous response was used to prevail, exploring risk factors. Results: The prevalence of alcohol consumption once a week is 9.4%. The prevalence in men is 14.5%, in women it is 5.6%. In minors it is 3.9% and in adults it is 19.0%. The municipality of San Onofre presents the highest prevalence (14.9%). In addition, being a man, being an employee, having a bad relationship with parents, having family members who were victims of the conflict, psychological counseling had a greater risk of alcohol consumption. In women, but not in men, having suicidal thoughts was associated with an increased risk of alcohol consumption. For both sexes, being 18-24 years old, losing school years, consuming psychoactive substances and behaving as an aggressor in cases of school bullying increase the risk of alcohol consumption. Discussion: The prevalence of once-a-week consumption among young people in Montes de Maria is 1.5 percentage points of the prevalence of harmful consumption at the national level (11.07%). Young people aged 18 to 24 years have a prevalence equal to the national risky and harmful alcohol consumption for the same age range (18.76%). The risk factors found denote family problems, school disinterest and psychological problems. Conclusions: There is a high prevalence of alcohol consumption in Montes de María youth where it is necessary to establish preventive programs for alcohol consumption at an early age. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista de Salud Pública is the property of Universidad Nacional de Colombia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Introduction: Retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) is a vasoproliferative disease that affects the retina of prematurely born children. Therefore, this study proposed to identify associated factors and to predict retinopathy in prematurity. Method: A cross-sectional study including preterm newborns divided into two groups: with and without retinopathy. The variables were categorized using the likelihood ratio test, and the variables with p-values less than 0.2 were analyzed by a multiple logistic model. The model used the construction of a Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve as predicting tool. Results: Of the 296 newborns, 32 (10.81%) had retinopathy. The following variables represented a risk factor according to the logistic model: gestational age = 30 weeks (p-value = 0.0214), birth weight = 1250 grams (p-value = 0.0013) and Apgar score at 1 minute <7 (p-value = 0.0352). The ROC curve with sensitivity of 0.771 and specificity of 0.774 was a precise model, showing accuracy of 0.8448 and a probability point of 0.79. Conclusions: This model can be used to predict retinopathy in premature newborns with a risk factor of 0.79, emphasizing that the need for additional attention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: sepsis, for all the events it unleashes, affects, directly or indirectly, all the organs. It is common to observe, in the evolution of these patients, the development of dysfunction or hepatic failure that, rarely, it is diagnosed until clinical signs such as jaundice or coagulation disorders appear. Objective: to design a predictive model of liver damage in the septic patient. Method: an observational, retrospective and developmental study of case-control, of case-control, was carried out. A total of 508 deaths were taken with clinical and pathological evidence of sepsis from the Intensive Care Unit that met the intentionality criteria, from January 2006 to December 2015 at "Manuel Fajardo Rivero" Hospital. Of these deaths, 100 cases and 100 controls were taken. Results: the variables that were included in the model, after the binary logistic regression analysis, were: multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, direct bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, total cholesterol, creatinine, international normalized ratio and platelets. Hosmer-Lemeshow test=1,867 and p=0,985. Sensitivity of 57,69 and specificity of 100. Positive predictive value of 100 and a negative predictive value of 68,57, validity index of 78,00. The area observed under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve is 0,922, with a significance associated to the calculated statistician of 0,000. Conclusions: the model demonstrated good discriminatory capacity and to be a good predictor of liver damage in the septic patient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objetivo: Construir y validar un modelo predictivo del riesgo de consumo de recursos sanitarios elevado, y evaluar su capacidad para identificar pacientes crónicos complejos. Métodos: Estudio transversal realizado en una organización sanitaria integrada sobre datos individuales de residentes 2 años consecutivos (88.795 personas). Variable dependiente: coste sanitario real superior al percentil 95 (P95), incluyendo todos los servicios de la organización sanitaria integrada y las recetas de farmacia. Variables predictoras: edad, sexo, morbilidad (según los clinical risk groups [CRG]) y datos seleccionados de utilización previa (uso de hospitalización, uso de medicación hospitalaria ambulatoria, gasto en recetas de farmacia). Análisis univariado descriptivo. Construcción de un modelo de regresión logística con nivel de confianza del 95%; análisis de validez mediante sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y área bajo la curva ROC (AUC). Resultados: Las personas con coste >P95 acumulan el 44% del coste sanitario total y se concentran en las categorías ACRG3 (aggregated CRG level 3) de enfermedades crónicas múltiples o graves. La carga de morbilidad aumenta con la edad. En el modelo, todas las variables fueron estadísticamente significativas excepto el sexo. Se obtuvo una sensibilidad del 48,4% (intervalo de confianza [IC]: 46,9%-49,8%), una especificidad del 97,2% (IC: 97,0%-97,3%), un VPP del 46,5% (IC: 45,0%-47,9%) y un AUC de 0,897 (IC: 0,892-0,902). Conclusiones: El consumo sanitario elevado se relaciona con la morbilidad crónica compleja. Un modelo basado en la edad, la morbilidad y la utilización previa es válido para predecir el riesgo de alto consumo, y así identificar la población diana de estrategias de atención proactiva para pacientes crónicos complejos.

Objetivo: O EuroSCORE tem sido utilizado na estimativa de risco em cirurgia cardíaca, apesar de fatores importantes não serem considerados. O objetivo foi validar o EuroSCORE na predição de mortalidade em cirurgia cardiovascular num centro brasileiro, definindo a influência do tipo de procedimento e da equipe cirúrgica responsável pelo paciente. Métodos: No período de janeiro de 2006 a junho de 2011, 2320 pacientes adultos consecutivos foram estudados. De acordo com o EuroSCORE aditivo, os pacientes foram divididos em risco baixo (escore 12). A relação entre a mortalidade observada (O) sobre a esperada (E) de acordo com o EuroSCORE logístico foi calculada para cada um dos grupos, procedimentos e cirurgiões com > de 150 operações, e analisada por regressão logística. Resultados: O EuroSCORE calibrou com a mortalidade observada (O/E=0,94; P

Recent studies have emphasized that there is no justification for using the odds ratio (OR) as an approximation of the relative risk (RR) or prevalence ratio (PR). Erroneous interpretations of the OR as RR or PR must be avoided, as several studies have shown that the OR is not a good approximation for these measures when the outcome is common (> 10%). For multinomial outcomes it is usual to use the multinomial logistic regression. In this context, there are no studies showing the impact of the approximation of the OR in the estimates of RR or PR. This study aimed to present and discuss alternative methods to multinomial logistic regression based upon robust Poisson regression and the log-binomial model. The approaches were compared by simulating various possible scenarios. The results showed that the proposed models have more precise and accurate estimates for the RR or PR than the multinomial logistic regression, as in the case of the binary outcome. Thus also for multinomial outcomes the OR must not be used as an approximation of the RR or PR, since this may lead to incorrect conclusions.

This study investigates whether occupation, variable that reflects social position, is associated with good quality of life among Brazilians. It is a cross-sectional study based on data obtained from a population-based survey carried out in Brazil in 2008. The sample composed of 12,423 Brazilians, older than 20 years. Physical and mental quality of life were both measured by SF-36 and scores were grouped in "above the mean" and "below the mean" to set binary outcomes. Logistic regression analysis was carried out to verify the impact of occupational position on the chances of better physical and mental quality of life, controlling it by socio-demographic and health variables. Results showed that Brazilians included on the labour market have better chances of a good physical and mental quality of life, even if controlled by other variables.