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Across a species' range, populations are exposed to their local thermal environments, which on an evolutionary scale, may cause adaptative differences among populations. Helminths often have broad geographic ranges and temperature‐sensitive life stages but little is known about whether and how local thermal adaptation can influence their response to climate change. We studied the thermal responses of the free‐living stages of Marshallagia marshalli, a parasitic nematode of wild ungulates, along a latitudinal gradient. We first determine its distribution in wild sheep species in North America. Then we cultured M. marshalli eggs from different locations at temperatures from 5 to 38°C. We fit performance curves based on the metabolic theory of ecology to determine whether development and mortality showed evidence of local thermal adaptation. We used parameter estimates in life‐cycle‐based host–parasite models to understand how local thermal responses may influence parasite performance under general and location‐specific climate‐change projections. We found that M. marshalli has a wide latitudinal and host range, infecting wild sheep species from New Mexico to Yukon. Increases in mortality and development time at higher temperatures were most evident for isolates from northern locations. Accounting for location‐specific parasite parameters primarily influenced the magnitude of climate change parasite performance, while accounting for location‐specific climates primarily influenced the phenology of parasite performance. Despite differences in development and mortality among M. marshalli populations, when using site‐specific climate change projections, there was a similar magnitude of impact on the relative performance of M. marshalli among populations. Climate change is predicted to decrease the expected lifetime reproductive output of M. marshalli in all populations while delaying its seasonal peak by approximately 1 month. Our research suggests that accurate projections of the impacts of climate change on broadly distributed species need to consider local adaptations of organisms together with local temperature profiles and climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming is rapidly altering Arctic ecosystems. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) need sea ice as a platform from which to hunt seals, but increased sea-ice loss is lengthening periods when bears are without access to primary hunting habitat. During periods of food scarcity, survival depends on the energy that a bear has stored in body reserves, termed storage energy, making this a key metric in predictive models assessing climate change impacts on polar bears. Here, we developed a body composition model for polar bears that estimates storage energy while accounting for changes in storage tissue composition. We used data of dissected polar bears (n =  31) to link routinely collected field measures of total body mass and straight-line body length to the body composition of individual bears, described in terms of structural mass and two storage compartments, adipose and muscle. We then estimated the masses of metabolizable proteins and lipids within these storage compartments, giving total storage energy. We tested this multi-storage model by using it to predict changes in the lipid stores from an independent dataset of wild polar bears (n  = 36) that were recaptured 8–200 days later. Using length and mass measurements, our model successfully predicted direct measurements of lipid changes via isotopic dilutions (root mean squared error of 14.5 kg). Separating storage into two compartments, and allowing the molecular composition of storage to vary, provides new avenues for quantifying energy stores of individuals across their life cycle. The multi-storage body composition model thus provides a basis for further exploring energetic costs of physiological processes that contribute to individual survival and reproductive success. Given bioenergetic models are increasingly used as a tool to predict individual fitness and population dynamics, our approach for estimating individual energy stores could be applicable to a wide range of species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As SARS-CoV-2 has swept the planet, intermittent lockdowns have become a regular feature to control transmission. References to so-called recurring waves of infections remain pervasive among news headlines, political messaging, and public health sources. We explore the power of analogies to facilitate understanding of biological models and processes by reviewing strengths and limitations of analogies used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider how, when analogies fall short, their ability to persuade can mislead public perception, even if unintentionally. Although waves can convey patterns of disease outbreak, we suggest process-based analogies might be more effective communication tools, given that they can be easily mapped to underlying epidemiological concepts and extended to include complex dynamics. Although no single analogy perfectly captures disease dynamics, fire is particularly suitable for visualizing epidemiological models, underscoring the importance and reasoning behind control strategies and potentially conveying a sense of urgency that can galvanize individual and collective action. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Conservation Biology is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Ontogenetic development can strongly shape species interactions. Yet, rarely is stage‐structure considered when analyzing species interaction networks, particularly networks that can account for more than feeding relationships. Here, we assess 1) if body size or trophic level regulate the importance of species' ontogeny on their interactions and 2) how including relevant stage‐structure affects the topology of species interaction networks. We use a count‐based inferential method to create networks from adult and juvenile fish count data and test stage‐structure importance by comparing a model that includes stage‐structure for all species against models that include stage‐structure only for larger fishes and only for piscivorous fishes during network construction. While the inferential method we use cannot differentiate between different types of interactions, it can account for different interaction types within a network as a pairwise interaction is inferred when one species influences the abundance of another. Next, we use graphlet‐based techniques to test if including stage‐structure alters overall network topology and a linear model to measure if adult‐juvenile size differences drive interaction differences at a species‐level. We find that the model that includes stage‐structure only for larger fishes outperforms other stage‐structured models including the model with only piscivore stage‐structure, and that larger differences in body size among juveniles and adults lead to greater interaction dissimilarities. Moreover, we find topological differences between inferred networks that only include adults and those that account for the stage‐structure of larger species. Overall, our study demonstrates how stage‐structured topological changes can be measured using inferred interaction networks and illustrates how larger species' juveniles fundamentally shape the structure of stream fish communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Canadian Journal of Fisheries & Aquatic Sciences is the property of Canadian Science Publishing and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Remote detectors are being used increasingly often to study aquatic and aerial species, which move significantly differently from terrestrial species. Camera‐trapping studies have used frameworks based on animal movement patterns to show that a species' detection frequency, along with movement speed and detector specifications, can be used to estimate absolute population density. This approach, however, has not yet been adapted to cases where movement is three‐dimensional. Here we adapt one such framework to three‐dimensional movement, to characterize the relationship between population density, animal speed, characteristics of a remote sensor's detection zone and detection frequency. The derivation involves defining the detection zone mathematically and calculating the mean area of the profile it presents to approaching individuals. We developed two variants of the model—one assuming random movement of all individuals, and one allowing for different probabilities for each approach direction (e.g. that animals more often swim/fly horizontally than vertically). We used computer simulations to evaluate model performance for a wide range of animal and detector densities. Simulations show that in ideal conditions the method approximates true density well, and that estimates become increasingly accurate using more detectors, or sampling for longer. Moreover the method is robust to violations of assumptions, accuracy is decreased only in extreme cases where all detectors are facing the same way. We provide equations for estimating population density from detection frequency and outline how to estimate the necessary parameters. We discuss how environmental variables and species‐specific characteristics affect parameter estimates and how to account for these differences in density estimations. Our method can be applied to common remote detection methods (cameras and acoustic detectors), which are currently being used to study a diversity of species and environments. Therefore, our work may significantly expand the number and diversity of species for which density can be estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parasites exhibit a diverse range of life history strategies. Transmission to a host is a key component of each life cycle but the difficulty of observing host–parasite contacts has often led to confusion surrounding transmission pathways. Given limited data on most host–parasite systems, flexible approaches are needed for disentangling the obscure transmission dynamics of these systems. Here, we develop a modelling framework for formally testing long‐standing hypotheses regarding how the parasitic nematode Trichinella nativa is maintained at high prevalences in polar bear populations. We evaluated transmission from marine prey, from scavenging terrestrial carrion, from cannibalism and from scavenging on dead infected bears as possible pathways, and assessed their respective importance by comparing model‐projected prevalences for each mechanism against observed total and age‐specific population prevalences in the Southern Beaufort Sea polar bear subpopulation. Cannibalism and the scavenging on conspecifics have previously been assumed to be critical transmission pathways, but despite data scarcity, our model exposes these mechanisms as ineffective across a wide range of plausible parameter values. Instead, our analyses suggest that transmission from the consumption of infected marine prey, and in particular seals, can explain observed prevalence levels by itself, with other transmission pathways likely playing varying small contributing roles. Furthermore, our model suggests that transmission declines with bear age, perhaps due to age‐dependent changes in diet or immunity. By formalising multiple transmission mechanisms in a unified, mathematical framework, we distilled several hypotheses to a likely main mode of T. nativa transmission to polar bears. The specifics of our model are tailored towards the T. nativa‐polar bear system, but the approach is easily generalized; it provides a powerful, quantitative means for ecologists to explore competing hypothesis for parasite transmission and other difficult‐to‐observe animal interactions even in data‐poor systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]