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We measure the causal impact of reductions in benchmark interest rates on the renegotiation and performance of distressed loans, using 2000s subprime mortgages as a laboratory. Subprime borrowers treated with larger benchmark rate reductions benefited from increased debt-renegotiation probabilities and lower debt-service payments. Modification rates were similar among current and delinquent borrowers but higher for real estate investors, highlighting the role of financial acumen in renegotiation. Renegotiations also reduced longer-run foreclosures, but treated borrowers who lingered in delinquency offset these benefits. Findings suggest monetary easing can spur debt renegotiation but alone may not lead to longer-run curative outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is there a trade-off between the short-run and long-run real effects of monetary policy "leaning against the wind"? We provide novel evidence on this question from the United States in 1920–1921. Our identification strategy exploits county-level variation in access to the Federal Reserve's discount window, and hand-collected data on banking and agriculture in Illinois. In the short term, tightened conditions at the discount window decreased bank lending and lowered crop prices and farm revenues. In the long term, however, they lowered debt-to-output levels and led to greater farmland utilization, suggesting an avoidance of debt overhang problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We show that lender of last resort (LOLR) policy exacerbates bank interconnectedness. Using novel micro-level data, we analyze LOLR's haircut gaps: the differences between the private market and central bank haircuts. LOLR policy incentivizes banks to increase pledging and holdings of higher haircut-gap bonds, especially those issued by domestic and systemically important banks. Effects only apply to banks, not to nonbanks without LOLR access. LOLR funding revives bank bond issuance associated with higher haircut gaps and increases the subsequent correlation between pledging and issuing banks' bond prices, in particular during periods of low-market returns and for domestic, systemically important banks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the drift and cyclical components in U.S. Treasury bonds. We find that bond yields are drifting because they reflect the drift in monetary policy rates. Empirically, modeling the monetary policy drift using demographics and productivity trends, plus long-term inflation expectations, leads to cyclical deviations of bond prices from their drift that predict bond returns in- and out-of-sample. These bond cycles can be interpreted as term premia or/and temporary deviations from rational expectations in a behavioral framework. Through the lens of our model, we detect a significant role of the latter in determining the cyclical properties of yields with short maturities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We develop a quantitative model with imperfections in domestic and international financial markets that generates strong effects of U.S. monetary policy on emerging markets (EMs). Financial imperfections prevent arbitrage both between local EM lending and borrowing rates, and between local-currency and dollar borrowing rates. An adverse feedback effect between financial health and external conditions amplifies the domestic "financial accelerator," leading to large cross-border spillovers of U.S. monetary policy shocks. The model implies a link between uncovered interest parity violations and local credit spreads, a prediction we show the data strongly supports. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the causal impact of limited attention to macroeconomic news is difficult to detect, this article proposes one solution: exploiting when foreign investors are "distracted" by risk factors in their home markets. I demonstrate that financial activity in the average foreign investor's home market decreases foreign attention paid to 21 emerging economies, measured using Google search volume for economy-specific financial terms that emanate from outside each economy's border. Exploiting this effect using an instrumental variables approach, I find that an exogenous increase in foreign attention preceding a scheduled monetary policy rate announcement raises preannouncement stock returns and announcement day turnover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does creditor health affect the pass-through of monetary policy to households? Using data on the universe of U.S. credit unions, I document that creditor asset losses increase the sensitivity of consumer credit to monetary policy. Identification exploits plausibly exogenous variation in asset losses and high-frequency identification of monetary policy shocks. Weaker lenders can respond more if they face financial frictions that easing alleviates. The estimates imply constraints on monetary policy become more costly in financial crises featuring creditor asset losses and that an additional benefit of monetary easing is that it weakens the causal, contractionary effect of asset losses. Authors have furnished an Internet Appendix , which is available on the Oxford University Press Web site next to the link to the final published paper online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The reaction of asset prices to monetary and macroeconomic news announcements represents a rich source of information which is important to better understand the financial market impact of economic fundamentals. Given the significant connection of energy to other sectors in the economy, this study attempts to address to what extent the views that a central bank expresses in its communications get reflected in the energy stock market. The GARCH with Jump intensity approach is used to analyse the volatility of energy stock prices and to measure their reactions to anticipated and unanticipated policy news. Moreover, we assess whether central bank communications exert differential impacts on changes in energy stock prices under various time-horizons. Focusing on the European Union and the UK energy stocks, the paper finds evidence of a time-varying market responsiveness. For instance, a more hawkish stance is associated with an increase in the energy stock price jumps for the EU in the short- and medium-terms, whereas it only holds for the UK in the short-run. Although central bank policies do not target the exchange rate itself, we find that the exchange rate channel is an important part of the monetary policy transmission mechanism for the energy market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article constructs a Bayesian estimated three different types of representative agents. New Keynesian (THRANK) model includes housing rental market to explain the transmission of monetary policy to inequality, as well as explore the role that rents play in. The concept of rent rigidity following the Calvo stickiness setting is introduced in model. In addition, based on the significance of rental inflation on interest rates in the OLS regression, rental inflation is added to Taylor rule in the model. It is found that: (1) Tight monetary policy widens income inequality and asset inequality. Among the main triggers that magnify income inequality are the interest income generated by higher interest rates and the profit income generated by firms under the markup surge. (2) Rent stickiness of the households is greater than the firms. (3) Sticky rents stabilize fluctuations in rental inflation and total social inflation, when the monetary authority employs the Taylor rule which includes the rental inflation for setting interest rates, will deepen this response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite advancements in construction digitalisation and alternative building technologies, cost overrun is still a challenge in the construction industry. The inflation rate is increasing, especially in developing countries, and is critical in cost overrun matters. It can deviate construction built-up rate components. This may thwart improving construction-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Studies concerning the impact of the inflation rate on construction-related SDGs are scarce in developing countries, including Nigeria. The study investigated the impact of inflation on Nigeria's construction projects and their outcome on SDGs and suggested possible ways to improve achievement of construction-related SDGs and their targets. Design/methodology/approach: The researchers employed a qualitative research design. This is because of the study's unexplored dimension. The researchers engaged 35 participants across major cities in Nigeria via semi-structured virtual and face-to-face interviews. The research utilised a thematic method for collated data and accomplished saturation. Findings: Findings reveal that the impact of inflation on construction projects, if not checked, could hinder achieving construction-related SDGs in Nigeria. This is because of the past three years of hyperinflation that cut across major construction components. It shows that the upward inflation rate threatens achieving construction-related SDGs and proffered measures to mitigate inflation and, by extension, enhance achieving construction-related SDGs. This includes a downward review of the Monetary Policy Rate, control of exchange rate volatility and addressing insecurity to restore FDIs and FPIs confidence. Originality/value: Besides suggesting possible solutions to mitigate hyperinflation on construction components to improve achieving construction-related SDGs, findings will stipulate government policymakers put measures in place through favourable fiscal and monetary policy implementation and encourage moving from a consumption to a production nation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research paper is to determine factors of credit risk expressed in terms of non-performing loans in six countries of the Western Balkans (Kosovo, Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia, and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Serbia). The research uses different econometric techniques for the presentation of econometric models, where 4 models are used: OLS, fixed-effects model, random-effects model, and Hausman Taylor IV estimators. The results from the empirical analysis presented show that unemployment and the real interest rate have a positive impact on the growth of non-performing loans where both coefficients are statistically significant at the 1% level, while other variables (financial stability, economic growth, and inflation) show a statistically significant negative impact. These findings are important for the decision-makers of the financial systems of these countries, especially countries that have limited use of monetary policy, making decisions to create greater financial stability to reduce credit risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Faced with ever-growing climate-related financial risks, the role of central banks in climate governance has intensified debates surrounding central bank independence (CBI). Informed by elite interviews with UK monetary policy experts and a discourse analysis of Bank of England reports, this article reveals the internal views on repoliticisation of the Bank and CBI catalysed by the mandate to ‘facilitate the transition to net zero’. We find different interpretations of CBI that are shaped by perceptions of the Bank’s existing political status, with some claiming that the Bank is intrinsically apolitical and immune to repoliticisation and others viewing CBI as fragile or a strategically-deployed discourse. Across three distinct views of politics, and by extensions CBI, we identify dual dynamics of depoliticisation and re-politicisation that serve to legitimate and depoliticise prior mission creep whilst simultaneously licencing politicising debates on the bank’s institutional evolution. We demonstrate that the Bank of England is an indispensable case study in the green central banking literature for understanding the political economy of CBI within the context of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The text introduces the supermultiplier model as an analytical tool that extends the principle of effective demand to the long run within monetary economies of production. It highlights the importance of autonomous demand components, such as government spending and private investments, in driving growth and capital accumulation. The document explores the interplay between the supermultiplier model and endogenous money, discussing how credit creation and monetary policy influence the financing of autonomous demand. Additionally, it presents various papers that delve into different aspects of the supermultiplier model, including the role of state money, monetary policy, and capital flows in open economies. [Extracted from the article]

This article integrates monetary policy into a very simple dynamic supermultiplier model with an accommodating supply side. Results show that monetary policy guided by a mainstream Taylor rule may stabilize an economy around the steady-state path of demand-led growth following temporary demand shocks. However, monetary policy is ineffective in offsetting permanent negative demand shocks even if the lower bound for interest rates is not binding. This outcome contrasts with the prevailing view among policymakers that monetary policy can usually assure full utilization of an economy's resources in the long run. The ineffectiveness of monetary policy is particularly acute if autonomous demand grows more slowly than necessary to generate full employment. In this case, if policymakers recognize the under-utilization of resources, monetary policy leads to interest rates trending necessarily to their lower bound. The analysis also shows how monetary policy may lead to counter-productive responses to supply shocks. The article concludes with observations about how the theoretical results correspond with the history of US monetary policy in recent decades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we investigate the impact of the balance-of-payments constraint on output, income distribution and policy space in a small economy open to both commercial and financial flows. We do so by extending a Sraffian supermultiplier growth model to consider current and capital accounts and endogenous money. Expansionary fiscal policies increase output and its long run growth rate but have a negative impact on the balance-of-payments. Based on these results, we derive the value of government spending that maximises output while maintaining external equilibrium. Monetary policy also influences the balance-of-payments by attracting foreign financial flows through higher interest rates. This relationship is non-monotonic, since these flows can finance the external deficit resulting from a high output level but can also lead to a greater interest burden. This trade off allows us to find the level of the interest rate that maximises external space. It also implies that, with limits, raising interest rates might allow for higher real wages. Lastly, we examine the effects of the currency denomination of debt. We find that, in case of a depreciation, debt in domestic currency allows for a less contractionary adjustment than foreign currency-denominated debt but does not lead to higher economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2021, a group of economists launched a proposal asking for the write-off of the public debt built-up in the ECB's balance sheet and an increase in public spending for a similar amount. This proposal generated strong criticism, which can be organized into three blocks: (i) debt relief occurs when a central bank purchases public debt, and its cancellation does not improve the situation faced by governments; (ii) the proposal is grounded in an erroneous concept of 'fiscal space', and there are better alternatives for the financing of public spending; (iii) the proposal would be counterproductive or illegal. This article rebuts those criticisms, finding the plan helpful to avoid a return to fiscal austerity. More specifically, debt cancellation makes quantitative easing, the unconventional monetary policy that justified the purchase of public debt, irreversible whilst simultaneously increasing the fiscal space of Eurozone Member States. Finally, and most relevant, the proposal includes a specific commitment to an increase in public spending. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]