Search

This paper offers a new de facto exchange rate regime classification that draws on the strengths of three popular classifications. Its two hallmarks are the careful treatment of a nexus between an ...

The study analyses the impact of different uncertainty shocks on industrial production in the Central and Eastern European countries. The paper provides different uncertainty measures which include: industrial, consumer and financial uncertainty, and, unlike previous studies, cover both external (the euro area) and internal (country-specific) sources of uncertainty. We provide evidence that uncertainty is a multidimensional phenomenon: consumer, industrial and financial uncertainty measures do not co-move. The main finding is that industrial production in the CEE countries negatively responds to external uncertainty shocks, whereas the reactions to internal uncertainty shocks are less clear-cut and depend on the category of uncertainty.

The study uses the two-stage bias-corrected DEA approach of Simar and Wilson (2007) to assess the efficiency of the EU countries in terms of their wind power investment in 2015. The set of input variables includes installed wind power capacity and average wind power density, while output variables include wind-generated electricity and three additional aspects: environmental, economic and energy security. Next, the study examines the effect of renewable energy policy regarding wind energy, the energy mix, and the offshore wind power utilisation on the wind power efficiency of the analysed countries. The results obtained reveal that the United Kingdom, Sweden, Denmark, and Ireland are the most efficient countries in terms of wind power investment. The inclusion of additional aspects demonstrates the greatest improvement of efficiency in Belgium, Cyprus, the Netherlands, Estonia and Germany. The results seem to indicate that economic instruments used within renewable energy policy have a positive effect on wind power efficiency, while policy support and regulatory instruments might negatively impact. Moreover, the results show that the energy mix explains the variation of the efficiency of the EU countries when their economic and environmental aspects are considered. The analysis of the geographic location indicates that countries with a high share of offshore wind capacity are the most efficient.

According to the macroeconomic trilemma, the floating exchange rate regime provides room for monetary independence. The paper examines whether this is the case in CEE economies. The ARDL bounds tes...

The purpose of this paper is to investigate causal relations between the insurance market development and economic growth in ten transition European Union member countries in the period between 1993 and 2013. The analysis is conduced with the use of bootstrap panel causality approach proposed by Konya (2006), which allows for simultaneous inclusion of both cross-sectional dependence and country-specific heterogeneity. Various types of dependencies between economic growth and the insurance market development (both in terms of the global insurance market and in the division into life insurance and non-life insurance) are identified in the study, and these findings confirm the results obtained in the majority of other papers, which report differences in the role of insurance and benefits various economies derive from the insurance market.

Background: The aim of this study was to determine the effect of sesquiterpene lactone parthenolide on the cytotoxic and pro-oxidative effects of etoposide in HL-60 cells. Methods: Cytotoxic effects were determined by incubation of HL-60 cells with various concentrations of examined compounds and combinations thereof, which were then stained with propidium iodide and analyzed using a flow cytometer. To determine the role of oxidative stress in the action of the compounds, co-incubation with N-acetyl-l-cysteine (NAC) and parthenolide and/or etoposide was used and the level of reduced glutathione (GSH) was detected. Results: Parthenolide significantly enhanced the cytotoxic and pro-apoptotic effects of etoposide. However, in most cases of the combinations of parthenolide and etoposide, their effect was antagonistic, as confirmed by an analysis using the CalcuSyn program. The examined compounds significantly reduced the level of GSH in HL-60 cells. Combination of etoposide at a concentration of 1.2 μM and parthenolide also significantly reduced GSH level. However, in the case of a combination of etoposide at a concentration of 2.5 μM with parthenolide, a significant increase in the level of GSH was obtained compared to compounds acting alone. This last observation seems to confirm the antagonism between the compounds tested. Conclusions: Parthenolide did not limit the cytotoxic effect of etoposide in HL-60 cells even in the case of antagonistic interaction. If parthenolide does increase GSH levels in combination with etoposide in the normal hematopoietic cells, it could protect them against the pro-oxidative effects of this anti-cancer drug.

The objective of the paper is to identify factors which determine energy policy in the EU countries in the middle of 1990s. This objective is achieved in three stages. First, the changes in the distribution of RES in 26 EU countries in the period between 1995 and 2014 are investigated. The analysis demonstrates that over the last 20 years the EU countries diversify the RES they use, which results in substantial changes in their distribution. Second, the distribution of energy sources in 1995 is described, as it is assumed that the distribution might be a crucial factor influencing energy policy in each country. Third, several other factors related to energy security, environmental concerns, economy and politics are considered as potential determinants of renewable energy development. Two statistical methods of variable selection, namely, the best subset regression and the LARS method, reveal that the present (in 2014) share of RES in the energy mix significantly depends on the condition of the EU countries in the middle of 1990s. The distribution of energy sources in 1995 is the crucial determinant of renewable energy development. Countries without their own fossil fuel sources are the ones which develop renewable energy to the greatest extent. Other important factors boosting RE development include: GDP per capita, concentration of energy supply (SWI), and the costs of consumption of energy obtained from fossil fuels in relation to GDP.

The study offers thorough analysis of the impact of the European Union (EU) energy policy on decoupling greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from economic growth between 1996 and 2017. Two types of GHG measurements, production-based accounting (PBA) and consumption-based accounting (CBA), are used to account for the possible outsourcing with the Tapio framework. Five factors taken from the Log-Mean Divisia Index are considered in order to determine the main contributors of emission mitigation. The results demonstrate decoupling GHG emissions from economic growth in almost all countries, regardless of the type of GHG measurements. However, in the case of production-based emissions, the decoupling occurs faster. After 2005, when the EU launches its energy policy, the decoupling speeds up. LMDI results indicate that the improvements in energy intensity and the energy structure are the most significant drivers of GHG emissions reduction. There are differences between the reduction of the two types of GHG emissions and its determinants in old and new EU countries. In almost all EU countries the decoupling is linked to the EU energy policy but the reduction of GHG emissions partly comes at the expense of outsourcing, i.e. the relocation of emission-intensive industries to countries outside the EU.

This article examines the link between a nominal exchange rate and macrofundamentals in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. We use the model based on the monetary policy rule as a theoret...

The aim of the paper is to investigate the role of gold and crude oil as hedges and safe havens for the stock and currency markets. We generalize Baur and Lucey's (2010) original idea by allowing for the nonstationarity of the returns. First, we look for structural changes in long term volatility of returns in order to identify flights to safety moments. Next, we analyse the relations between variables of interest using the rolling regression framework. Our study reveals that only some relations are stable, and only gold is a weak hedge for equity.

This paper examines the effect of oil price uncertainty on industrial production and the exchange rates in four oil exporting countries, Canada, Mexico, Norway and Russia. Within the block-exogenous Bayesian SVAR framework we find that the oil price uncertainty shocks result in a persistent drop of industrial production, which is heterogeneous in its depth across the analysed countries. The exchange rate depreciates instantly in reaction to the oil price uncertainty shock, but this reaction is long-lasting only in the case of developing countries, Mexico and Russia. We show that oil price uncertainty shocks is an important driver of industrial production fluctuations in all oil exporting countries, whereas the contribution of these shocks to exchange rate fluctuations varies from country to country and is greatest in Mexico and the lowest for Norway.

The paper presents a detailed analysis of relationships between steam coal prices on the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The division took into account both the importers (Japan, Europe) and the exporters (South Africa and Australia). The data used in the analysis came from Argus Base and included time series from the period January 2002–August 2011. The analysis has revealed that there is a cointegration between the prices, which means that they are in a long-term equilibrium. The application of the Granger causality test has shown that the Pacific basin plays a dominant role in the process of shaping prices. Both the import prices and the pair Japan and Australia were causes for the remaining prices. Instantaneous causality was calculated using the directed acyclic graph (DAG) method. The results obtained indicate that there is no instantaneous causality for the pair of importers in Asia and Europe. The structural restrictions for the model yielded the impulse response function. All the analyses co...

The aim of this paper is to analyse the links between real and financial processes in the euro area and energy and non-energy commodity prices. Monthly data spanning 1997:1 to 2013:12 and the structural VAR model are used to uncover the relationship between global commodity prices and the euro area economy. The analysis is performed for three sub-periods in order to capture potential changes in this relationship over time. The main finding is that commodity prices in the euro area do not respond to impulses from production (economic activity), whereas commodity prices strongly react to impulses from financial processes, i.e. interest rates in the euro area and the exchange rate of the dollar against the euro, especially in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The study also provides evidence of a tightening relationship between energy and non-energy commodity prices.

We examine connectedness among three types of uncertainties, financial, consumer and industrial uncertainties, in EU member states. The monthly series span the period January 2005 to March 2018, which includes the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis. The time and frequency spillover approaches based on generalized forecast error variance decomposition are used. We propose decomposing the connectedness tables into symmetric and skew-symmetric parts, for a better and more comprehensive interpretation. The results show that spillover among uncertainties is higher during crises. More spillover is observed within a specific type of uncertainty. The pairs of countries that transmit uncertainty to one another are geographically related, i.e. neighbouring countries. Financial uncertainty is a net transmitter to both industrial and consumer uncertainties.

This paper investigates the effects of real and financial processes in the euro area macroeconomy on energy and non-energy commodity prices. The relations implied by the proposed theoretical model are examined within the structural VAR framework for three sub-periods. Our main finding is that, although global commodity prices are indeed related to real and financial processes in the euro area macroeconomy, the relations among them are not stable over time. Energy prices and interest rates depart from real processes in the pre-crisis period, whereas the relative importance of real and financial factors changes for non-energy commodity price index.

The aim of the paper is twofold: first, to assess the dynamics of the integration process of the international steam coal prices and, second, to investigate the changes in the roles of particular coal prices in this market in the light of changes in the structure of supply and demand. The analysis is based on steam coal prices set by the largest world exporters and importers on both the Atlantic and the Pacific markets. We use weekly data spanning from October 5, 2001 to March 28, 2014. The aim is achieved in two stages. During the first one, we use the rolling trace test to identify the integration of the steam coal market, and during the second one, we apply the rolling weak exogeneity test to determine the roles of the participants of the international steam coal market, namely price setters and price takers. Our main findings can be summarized in two observations. Firstly, the main world steam coal prices are integrated and during the period when freight costs are higher, the coal market integration is weaker, and when the costs are lower, the integration is stronger. Secondly, the role of particular coal prices is not stable in time. Generally, price setters appear in the market which covers greater shares in the physical coal trade. Although Indonesia and Russia have a great share in the global export, their prices remain price takers during the whole period. As a consequence, although Russia remains the largest coal exporter of the steam coal to the European market, it cannot dictate its prices in this market.

Though the hypothesis that exchange rate regimes fully predetermine monetary policy in the face of external shocks hardly finds any advocates on theoretical ground it has crept in the most of empirical research. This study adopts a more discerning empirical approach that looks at monetary policy tools used in order to accommodate the recent financial crisis. We investigated the GDP growth in 45 emerging market economies in the most intense phase of the crisis and found out that there is no clear difference in the growth performance between countries at the opposite poles of the exchange rate regime spectrum. Depreciation cum international reserve depletion outperforms the other policy options, especially the rise in the interest rate spread. We discovered certain complementarities between the information on the policy option and on exchange rate regime. Taking into account non-Gaussian settings, we decided to use quantile regression, which provide in addition, more complete picture of relationship between the covariates and the distribution of the GDP growth.

Purpose In order to investigate the suitability of Streptococcus mutans species biotyping by measuring the activity of selected enzymes from a commercial test, criteria were established for biotyping clinical strains from children with dental caries. In addition, the relationships between the selected biotypes, sensitivity to commonly used antibiotics, and early childhood caries were determined. Methods A total of 142 S. mutans isolates from dental plaque of children with caries were divided into different biotypes. Patients were divided into two groups: noncavitated (1-2 in ICDAS) and cavitated (5-6 in ICDAS) lesions. Biotyping criteria were determined based on both the arbitrary method and the clusterization method. The susceptibility of the strains to amoxicillin, cefazolin, erythromycin, and teicoplanin was studied by diluting a solid medium. Results Biotype I was the most common. Mean MIC values showed that the strains belonging to biotypes II and IV were the most sensitive to amoxicillin. For predetermined biotypes, observed differences were dependent on the severity of dental caries. Conclusions The proposed method of S. mutans strains biotyping is relatively quick and simple to use, provided the application of suitable biotyping criteria, and may contribute to the effective prevention of dental caries induced by S. mutans.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relations between nominal exchange rates and monetary fundamentals. The analysis is conducted using panel quarterly data from the period 2001–12 for Central and Eastern European countries (including Turkey) with relatively flexible exchange rate regimes. The paper reconnects the empirical literature on exchange rates in Central and Eastern European countries with the most recent findings on exchange rate determination in advanced economies. Koyna's approach, which accounts for linkages between countries, is used in the study. The main findings indicate the existence of causal relations running from both nominal exchange rates to monetary fundamentals and in the opposite direction as well as the existence of a relatively strong link between exchange rates and differentials in the relative price of non-tradables.

The aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the EU energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the European Union member states in the period 1993–2011. The study is divided into two main stages. During the first one, using cluster analysis methods, four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified. During the second stage, the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach proposed by Konya (2006) was used to verify the hypothesis of causality between energy consumption and economic growth in the countries from four groups created in the previous step. The global financial crisis was also taken into account. The results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth. The results indicate causal relations in the group of countries with the greatest reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, the highest reduction of energy intensity and the highest share of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption. In the remaining groups the results mostly confirm the neutrality hypothesis.

The aim of this study is to assess the effect of renewable energy sector development on the relationships between electricity consumption and economic growth in the European Union countries in the period between 1995 and 2015. A panel vector autoregressive model is used for testing Granger causality and estimating impulse-response functions. The results indicate that the relationships between economic growth and electricity consumption depend on the level of renewable energy sector development. The greater the share of the renewable energy sector in the economy is, the more noticeable the mutual dependence between the economic growth and renewable electricity consumption is. In countries with relatively well-developed renewable energy sectors renewable electricity consumption boosts the economy and vice versa. In the remaining countries economic growth and electricity consumption are independent. Empirical findings suggest that policymakers should develop strategies to implement clean energy policy aimed at stimulating the development of the renewable energy sector to support economic growth.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the integration of the steam coal market. The analysis of dependencies between mean rates of return of prices on the steam coal market and volatility spillover was conducted using weekly data from the period 04.01.2002 to 30.12.2011. The prices of the world's largest exporters and importers on the Pacific and Atlantic markets were chosen to analyse the dependencies. The methodology was based on the tests from Cheung and Ng (1996) and Hong (2001) , which allow for the analysis of Granger causality both in mean and in variance. The analyses indicate that the dependence between participants is not the same. The strongest links were observed between the pairs of participants from the same market (that is, either the Atlantic market or the Pacific market), and the price of Australian coal turned out to be the most important factor in shaping other prices on the Pacific market. On the Atlantic market, the coal prices in the Amsterdam–Rotterdam–Antwerp (ARA) ports and the Richards Bay port had the greatest influence on coal prices and were the Granger cause of prices in the Pacific region.

The article investigates causality between fossil fuel prices, exchange rates and the German Stock Index (DAX). The analysis is conducted dynamically with the use of rolling VAR methodology on the basis of weekly data from the period October 2001–June 2012. The results obtained show that the relationship between the variables changed over time depending on the level of volatility in financial markets.

The aim of the paper is to investigate dynamic linkages between the main European stock markets and two commodity prices: crude oil and gold. For the empirical analysis we use daily data from the period January 2, 1998 to June 30, 2014. To investigate Granger causality a nonparametric test based on the empirical copula is used, which was proposed by Genest and Rémillard (2004). The analysis is conducted in rolling windows. There are tree main findings of the study. First, relations between commodity prices and stock markets are not stable in time. Second, commodity prices do not Granger cause the European stock market indexes. Third, only the price of gold depends on past values of stock market indexes for almost all sub-periods.

The aim of the paper is to analyse the conditional dependence structure between precious metal returns using a copula-DCC-GARCH approach. Conditional correlation matrices are used to identify the states of the precious metals market by assuming that a given state of the market corresponds to a typical pattern of the conditional dependence structure. Cluster analysis allows for pointing at transition points between the market states, that is the points of drastic change in the conditional dependence structure. The application of the methodology described above to the period between 1997 and 2013 indicates three market states of four major precious metals (gold, silver, platinum and palladium). The results obtained reveal a sudden increase in dependencies between precious metals at the turn of April and May 2004.

The aim of the paper is to assess linkages between energy consumption and economic growth in the light of compliance with the EU energy policy targets stated in the climate and energy package for 2020 in the European Union member states in the period 1993-2011. The study is divided into two main stages. During the first one, using cluster analysis methods, four groups of countries which met three energy policy targets stated in the package at similar levels were identified. During the second stage, the bootstrap Granger panel causality approach proposed by Konya [9] was used to verify the hypothesis of energy-growth nexus in the countries from the groups. The results obtained reveal that the level of compliance with energy policy targets influences linkages between energy consumption and economic growth. Causal relations were found in the group of countries with the greatest improvements on the EU energy policy targets.