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BACKGROUND: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both prior infection and vaccination can prevent future infection and reduce severity of outcomes, combining to form hybrid immunity against COVID-19 at the individual and population level. Here, we explore how different combinations of hybrid immunity affect the size and severity of near-future Omicron waves. METHODS: To investigate the role of hybrid immunity, we use an agent-based model of COVID-19 transmission with waning immunity to simulate outbreaks in populations with varied past attack rates and past vaccine coverages, basing the demographics and past histories on the World Health Organization Western Pacific Region. RESULTS: We find that if the past infection immunity is high but vaccination levels are low, then the secondary outbreak with the same variant can occur within a few months after the first outbreak; meanwhile, high vaccination levels can suppress near-term outbreaks and delay the second wave. Additionally, hybrid immunity has limited impact on future COVID-19 waves with immune-escape variants. CONCLUSIONS: Enhanced understanding of the interplay between infection and vaccine exposure can aid anticipation of future epidemic activity due to current and emergent variants, including the likely impact of responsive vaccine interventions.

Plasmodium vivax is one of the most geographically widespread malaria parasites in the world, primarily found across South-East Asia, Latin America, and parts of Africa. One of the significant characteristics of the P. vivax parasite is its ability to remain dormant in the human liver as hypnozoites and subsequently reactivate after the initial infection (i.e. relapse infections). Mathematical modelling approaches have been widely applied to understand P. vivax dynamics and predict the impact of intervention outcomes. Models that capture P. vivax dynamics differ from those that capture P. falciparum dynamics, as they must account for relapses caused by the activation of hypnozoites. In this article, we provide a scoping review of mathematical models that capture P. vivax transmission dynamics published between January 1988 and May 2023. The primary objective of this work is to provide a comprehensive summary of the mathematical models and techniques used to model P. vivax dynamics. In doing so, we aim to assist researchers working on mathematical epidemiology, disease transmission, and other aspects of P. vivax malaria by highlighting best practices in currently published models and highlighting where further model development is required. We categorise P. vivax models according to whether a deterministic or agent-based approach was used. We provide an overview of the different strategies used to incorporate the parasite's biology, use of multiple scales (within-host and population-level), superinfection, immunity, and treatment interventions. In most of the published literature, the rationale for different modelling approaches was driven by the research question at hand. Some models focus on the parasites' complicated biology, while others incorporate simplified assumptions to avoid model complexity. Overall, the existing literature on mathematical models for P. vivax encompasses various aspects of the parasite's dynamics. We recommend that future research should f

Disease surveillance is used to monitor ongoing control activities, detect early outbreaks, and inform intervention priorities and policies. However, data from disease surveillance that could be used to support real-time decisionmaking remain largely underutilised. Using the Brazilian Amazon malaria surveillance dataset as a case study, in this paper we explore the potential for unsupervised anomaly detection machine learning techniques to discover signals of epidemiological interest. We found that our models were able to provide an early indication of outbreak onset, outbreak peaks, and change points in the proportion of positive malaria cases. Specifically, the sustained rise in malaria in the Brazilian Amazon in 2016 was flagged by several models. We found that no single model detected all anomalies across all health regions. Because of this, we provide the minimum number of machine learning models top-k models) to maximise the number of anomalies detected across different health regions. We discovered that the top three models that maximise the coverage of the number and types of anomalies detected across the thirteen health regions are principal component analysis, stochastic outlier selection, and the minimum covariance determinant. Anomaly detection is a potentially valuable approach to discovering patterns of epidemiological importance when confronted with a large volume of data across space and time. Our exploratory approach can be replicated for other diseases and locations to inform monitoring, timely interventions, and actions towards the goal of controlling endemic disease.

The utilisation of serological surveillance methods for malaria has the potential to identify individuals exposed to Plasmodium vivax, including asymptomatic carriers. However, the application of serosurveillance varies globally, including variations in methodology and transmission context. No systematic review exists describing the advantages and disadvantages of utilising serosurveillance in various settings. Collation and comparison of these results is a necessary first step to standardise and validate the use of serology for the surveillance of P. vivax in specific transmission contexts. A scoping review was performed of P. vivax serosurveillance applications globally. Ninety-four studies were found that met predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. These studies were examined to determine the advantages and disadvantages of serosurveillance experienced in each study. If studies reported seroprevalence results, this information was also captured. Measurement of antibodies serves as a proxy by which individuals exposed to P. vivax may be indirectly identified, including those with asymptomatic infections, which may be missed by other technologies. Other thematic advantages identified included the ease and simplicity of serological assays compared to both microscopy and molecular diagnostics. Seroprevalence rates varied widely from 0-93%. Methodologies must be validated across various transmission contexts to ensure the applicability and comparability of results. Other thematic disadvantages identified included challenges with species cross-reactivity and determining changes in transmission patterns in both the short- and long-term. Serosurveillance requires further refinement to be fully realised as an actionable tool. Some work has begun in this area, but more is required.

Current serological tests cannot differentiate between total immunoglobulin A (IgA) and dimeric IgA (dIgA) associated with mucosal immunity. Here, we describe two new assays, dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-multiplex bead assay (MBA), that utilize the preferential binding of dIgA to a chimeric form of secretory component, allowing the differentiation between dIgA and monomeric IgA. dIgA responses elicited through severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection were measured in (i) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 74 samples (n = 20 individuals) from hospitalized cases of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); (ii) a longitudinal panel, consisting of 96 samples (n = 10 individuals) from individuals with mild COVID-19; (iii) a cross-sectional panel with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection with mild COVID-19 (n = 199) and (iv) pre-COVID-19 samples (n = 200). The dIgA-ELISA and dIgA-MBA demonstrated a specificity for dIgA of 99% and 98.5%, respectively. Analysis of dIgA responses in the longitudinal panels revealed that 70% (ELISA) and 50% (MBA) of patients elicited a dIgA response by day 20 after PCR diagnosis with a SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals with mild COVID-19 displayed increased levels of dIgA within the first 3 weeks after diagnosis but responses appeared to be short lived, compared with sustained IgA levels. However, in samples from hospitalized patients with COVID-19 we observed high and sustained levels of dIgA, up to 245 days after PCR diagnosis. Our results suggest that severe COVID-19 infections are associated with sustained levels of plasma dIgA compared with mild cases.

As progress towards malaria elimination continues, the challenge posed by the parasite species Plasmodium vivax has become more evident. In many regions co-endemic for P. vivax and Plasmodium falciparum, as transmission has declined the proportion of cases due to P. vivax has increased. Novel tools that directly target P. vivax are thus warranted for accelerated elimination. There is currently no advanced vaccine for P. vivax and only a limited number of potential candidates in the pipeline. In this study we aimed to identify promising P. vivax proteins that could be used as part of a subunit vaccination approach. We screened 342 P. vivax protein constructs for their ability to induce IgG antibody responses associated with protection from clinical disease in a cohort of children from Papua New Guinea. This approach has previously been used to successfully identify novel candidates. We were able to confirm previous results from our laboratory identifying the proteins reticulocyte binding protein 2b and StAR-related lipid transfer protein, as well as at least four novel candidates with similar levels of predicted protective efficacy. Assessment of these P. vivax proteins in further studies to confirm their potential and identify functional mechanisms of protection against clinical disease are warranted.

Abstract Background Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) is the dominant Plasmodium spp. causing the disease malaria in low-transmission regions outside of Africa. These regions often feature high proportions of asymptomatic patients with sub-microscopic parasitaemia and relapses. Naturally acquired antibody responses are induced after Plasmodium infection, providing partial protection against high parasitaemia and clinical episodes. However, previous work has failed to address the presence and maintenance of such antibody responses to P. vivax particularly in low-transmission regions. Methods We followed 34 patients in western Thailand after symptomatic P. vivax infections to monitor antibody kinetics over 9 months, during which no recurrent infections occurred. We assessed total IgG, IgG subclass and IgM levels to up to 52 P. vivax proteins every 2–4 weeks using a multiplexed Luminex® assay and identified protein-specific variation in antibody longevity. Mathematical modelling was used to generate the estimated half-life of antibodies, long-, and short-lived antibody-secreting cells. Results Generally, an increase in antibody level was observed within 1-week post symptomatic infection, followed by an exponential decay of different rates. We observed mostly IgG1 dominance and IgG3 sub-dominance in this population. IgM responses followed similar kinetic patterns to IgG, with some proteins unexpectedly inducing long-lived IgM responses. We also monitored antibody responses against 27 IgG-immunogenic antigens in 30 asymptomatic individuals from a similar region. Our resu

Plasmodium vivax is the most widespread causative agent of human malaria in the world. Despite the ongoing implementation of malaria control programs, the rate of case reduction has declined over the last 5 years. Hence, surveillance of malaria transmission should be in place to identify and monitor areas that require intensified malaria control interventions. Serological tools may offer additional insights into transmission intensity over parasite and entomological measures, especially as transmission levels decline. Antibodies can be detected in the host system for months to even years after parasite infections have been cleared from the blood, enabling malaria exposure history to be captured. Because the Plasmodium parasite expresses more than 5000 proteins, it is important to a) understand antibody longevity following infection and b) measure antibodies to more than one antigen in order to accurately inform on the exposure and/or immune status of populations. This review summarises current practices for surveillance of P. vivax malaria, the current state of research into serological exposure markers and their potential role for accelerating malaria elimination, and discusses further studies that need to be undertaken to see such technology implemented in malaria-endemic areas.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene 'haplotypes' from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax) is the dominant Plasmodium spp. causing the disease malaria in low-transmission regions outside of Africa. These regions often feature high proportions of asymptomatic patients with sub-microscopic parasitaemia and relapses. Naturally acquired antibody responses are induced after Plasmodium infection, providing partial protection against high parasitaemia and clinical episodes. However, previous work has failed to address the presence and maintenance of such antibody responses to P. vivax particularly in low-transmission regions. METHODS: We followed 34 patients in western Thailand after symptomatic P. vivax infections to monitor antibody kinetics over 9 months, during which no recurrent infections occurred. We assessed total IgG, IgG subclass and IgM levels to up to 52 P. vivax proteins every 2-4 weeks using a multiplexed Luminex® assay and identified protein-specific variation in antibody longevity. Mathematical modelling was used to generate the estimated half-life of antibodies, long-, and short-lived antibody-secreting cells. RESULTS: Generally, an increase in antibody level was observed within 1-week post symptomatic infection, followed by an exponential decay of different rates. We observed mostly IgG1 dominance and IgG3 sub-dominance in this population. IgM responses followed similar kinetic patterns to IgG, with some proteins unexpectedly inducing long-lived IgM responses. We also monitored antibody responses against 27 IgG-immunogenic antigens in 30 asymptomatic individuals from a similar region. Our results demonstrate that most antigens induced robust and long-lived total IgG responses following asymptomatic infections in the absence of (detected) boosting infections. CONCLUSIONS: Our work provides new insights into the development and maintenance of naturally acquired immunity to P. vivax and will guide the potential use of serology to indicate immune status and/or identify populations at risk.

BACKGROUND: The landscape of malaria transmission in the Peruvian Amazon is temporally and spatially heterogeneous, presenting different micro-geographies with particular epidemiologies. Most cases are asymptomatic and escape routine malaria surveillance based on light microscopy (LM). Following the implementation of control programs in this region, new approaches to stratify transmission and direct efforts at an individual and community level are needed. Antibody responses to serological exposure markers (SEM) to Plasmodium vivax have proven diagnostic performance to identify people exposed in the previous 9 months. METHODOLOGY: We measured antibody responses against 8 SEM to identify recently exposed people and determine the transmission dynamics of P. vivax in peri-urban (Iquitos) and riverine (Mazán) communities of Loreto, communities that have seen significant recent reductions in malaria transmission. Socio-demographic, geo-reference, LM and qPCR diagnosis data were collected from two cross-sectional surveys. Spatial and multilevel analyses were implemented to describe the distribution of seropositive cases and the risk factors associated with exposure to P. vivax. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Low local transmission was detected by qPCR in both Iquitos (5.3%) and Mazán (2.7%); however, seroprevalence indicated a higher level of (past) exposure to P. vivax in Mazán (56.5%) than Iquitos (38.2%). Age and being male were factors associated with high odds of being seropositive in both sites. Higher antibody levels were found in individuals >15 years old. The persistence of long-lived antibodies in these individuals could overestimate the detection of recent exposure. Antibody levels in younger populations (<15 years old) could be a better indicator of recent exposure to P. vivax. CONCLUSIONS: The large number of current and past infections detected by SEMs allows for detailed local epidemiological analyses, in contrast to data from qPCR prevalence surveys which did not prod

BACKGROUND: Eliminating Plasmodium vivax will require targeting the hidden liver-stage reservoir of hypnozoites. This necessitates new interventions balancing the benefit of reducing vivax transmission against the risk of over-treating some individuals with drugs which may induce haemolysis. By measuring antibodies to a panel of vivax antigens, a strategy of serological-testing-and-treatment (PvSeroTAT) can identify individuals with recent blood-stage infections who are likely to carry hypnozoites and target them for radical cure. This provides a potential solution to selectively treat the vivax reservoir with 8-aminoquinolines. METHODS: PvSeroTAT can identify likely hypnozoite carriers with ~80% sensitivity and specificity. Diagnostic test sensitivities and specificities ranging 50-100% were incorporated into a mathematical model of vivax transmission to explore how they affect the risks and benefits of different PvSeroTAT strategies involving hypnozoiticidal regimens. Risk was measured as the rate of overtreatment and benefit as reduction of community-level vivax transmission. RESULTS: Across a wide range of combinations of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity, PvSeroTAT was substantially more effective than bloodstage mass screen and treat strategies and only marginally less effective than mass drug administration. The key test characteristic determining of the benefit of PvSeroTAT strategies is diagnostic sensitivity, with higher values leading to more hypnozoite carriers effectively treated and greater reductions in vivax transmission. The key determinant of risk is diagnostic specificity: higher specificity ensures that a lower proportion of uninfected individuals are unnecessarily treated with primaquine. These relationships are maintained in both moderate and low transmission settings (qPCR prevalence 10% and 2%). Increased treatment efficacy and adherence can partially compensate for lower test performance. Multiple rounds of PvSeroTAT with a lower perfor

Cryptosporidiosis is a major global health problem and a primary cause of diarrhea, particularly in young children in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The zoonotic Cryptosporidium parvum and anthroponotic Cryptosporidium hominis cause most human infections. Here, we present a comprehensive whole-genome study of C. hominis, comprising 114 isolates from 16 countries within five continents. We detect two lineages with distinct biology and demography, which diverged circa 500 years ago. We consider these lineages two subspecies and propose the names C. hominis hominis and C. hominis aquapotentis (gp60 subtype IbA10G2). In our study, C. h. hominis is almost exclusively represented by isolates from LMICs in Africa and Asia and appears to have undergone recent population contraction. In contrast, C. h. aquapotentis was found in high-income countries, mainly in Europe, North America, and Oceania, and appears to be expanding. Notably, C. h. aquapotentis is associated with high rates of direct human-to-human transmission, which may explain its success in countries with well-developed environmental sanitation infrastructure. Intriguingly, we detected genomic regions of introgression following secondary contact between the subspecies. This resulted in high diversity and divergence in genomic islands of putative virulence genes, including muc5 (CHUDEA2_430) and a hypothetical protein (CHUDEA6_5270). This diversity is maintained by balancing selection, suggesting a co-evolutionary arms race with the host. Finally, we find that recent gene flow from C. h. aquapotentis to C. h. hominis, likely associated with increased human migration, maybe driving the evolution of more virulent C. hominis variants.

Investigation of the diversity of malaria parasite antigens can help prioritize and validate them as vaccine candidates and identify the most common variants for inclusion in vaccine formulations. Studies of vaccine candidates of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum, have focused on a handful of well-known antigens, while several others have never been studied. Here we examine the global diversity and population structure of leading vaccine candidate antigens of P. falciparum using the MalariaGEN Pf3K (version 5.1) resource, comprising more than 2600 genomes from 15 malaria endemic countries. A stringent variant calling pipeline was used to extract high quality antigen gene 'haplotypes' from the global dataset and a new R-package named VaxPack was used to streamline population genetic analyses. In addition, a newly developed algorithm that enables spatial averaging of selection pressure on 3D protein structures was applied to the dataset. We analysed the genes encoding 23 leading and novel candidate malaria vaccine antigens including csp, trap, eba175, ama1, rh5, and CelTOS. Our analysis shows that current malaria vaccine formulations are based on rare haplotypes and thus may have limited efficacy against natural parasite populations. High levels of diversity with evidence of balancing selection was detected for most of the erythrocytic and pre-erythrocytic antigens. Measures of natural selection were then mapped to 3D protein structures to predict targets of functional antibodies. For some antigens, geographical variation in the intensity and distribution of these signals on the 3D structure suggests adaptation to different human host or mosquito vector populations. This study provides an essential framework for the diversity of P. falciparum antigens to be considered in the design of the next generation of malaria vaccines.

The CYP2D6 enzyme is estimated to metabolize 25% of commonly used pharmaceuticals and is of intense pharmacogenetic interest due to the polymorphic nature of the CYP2D6 gene. Accurate allele typing of CYP2D6 has proved challenging due to frequent copy number variants (CNVs) and paralogous pseudogenes. SNP-arrays, qPCR and short-read sequencing have been employed to interrogate CYP2D6, however these technologies are unable to capture longer range information. Long-read sequencing using the PacBio Single Molecule Real Time (SMRT) sequencing platform has yielded promising results for CYP2D6 allele typing. However, previous studies have been limited in scale and have employed nascent data processing pipelines. We present a robust data processing pipeline "PLASTER" for accurate allele typing of SMRT sequenced amplicons. We demonstrate the pipeline by typing CYP2D6 alleles in a large cohort of 377 Solomon Islanders. This pharmacogenetic method will improve drug safety and efficacy through screening prior to drug administration.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium vivax is emerging as the dominant and prevalent species causing malaria in near-elimination settings outside of Africa. Hypnozoites, the dormant liver stage parasite of P. vivax, are undetectable to any currently available diagnostic test, yet are a major reservoir for transmission. Advances have been made to harness the naturally acquired immune response to identify recent exposure to P. vivax blood-stage parasites and, therefore, infer the presence of hypnozoites. This in-development diagnostic is currently able to detect infections within the last 9-months with 80% sensitivity and 80% specificity. Further work is required to optimize protein expression and protein constructs used for antibody detection. METHODS: The antibody response against the top performing predictor of recent infection, P. vivax reticulocyte binding protein 2b (PvRBP2b), was tested against multiple fragments of different sizes and from different expression systems. The IgG induced against the recombinant PvRBP2b fragments in P. vivax infected individuals was measured at the time of infection and in a year-long observational cohort; both conducted in Thailand. RESULTS: The antibody responses to some but not all different sized fragments of PvRBP2b protein are highly correlated with each other, significantly higher 1-week post-P. vivax infection, and show potential for use as predictors of recent P. vivax infection. CONCLUSIONS: To achieve P. vivax elimination goals, novel diagnostics are required to aid in detection of hidden parasite reservoirs. PvRBP2b was previously shown to be the top candidate for single-antigen classification of recent P. vivax exposure and here, it is concluded that several alternative recombinant PvRBP2b fragments can achieve equal sensitivity and specificity at predicting recent P. vivax exposure.

Serological markers are a promising tool for surveillance and targeted interventions for Plasmodium vivax malaria. P. vivax is closely related to the zoonotic parasite P. knowlesi, which also infects humans. P. vivax and P. knowlesi are co-endemic across much of South East Asia, making it important to design serological markers that minimize cross-reactivity in this region. To determine the degree of IgG cross-reactivity against a panel of P. vivax serological markers, we assayed samples from human patients with P. knowlesi malaria. IgG antibody reactivity is high against P. vivax proteins with high sequence identity with their P. knowlesi ortholog. IgG reactivity peaks at 7 days post-P. knowlesi infection and is short-lived, with minimal responses 1 year post-infection. We designed a panel of eight P. vivax proteins with low levels of cross-reactivity with P. knowlesi. This panel can accurately classify recent P. vivax infections while reducing misclassification of recent P. knowlesi infections.