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2. New framework reveals gaps in US ocean biodiversity protection

Author

Gignoux-Wolfsohn, Sarah A, Dunn, Daniel C, Cleary, Jesse, Halpin, Patrick N, Anderson, Clarissa R, Bax, Nicholas J, Canonico, Gabrielle, Chaniotis, Peter, DeLand, Sarah, Diorio, Mimi, Gaines, Steven D, Grorud-Colvert, Kirsten, Johnson, David E, Levin, Lisa A, Lundquist, Carolyn J, Manca, Eleonora, Metaxas, Anna, Monaco, Mark E, Morgan, Lance, Mumby, Peter J, Nisthar, Dina, Pashkow, Brittany, Pike, Elizabeth P, Pinsky, Malin L, Ribera, Marta M, Stanley, Ryan RE, Sullivan-Stack, Jenna, Sutton, Tracey T, Tittensor, Derek P, Weatherdon, Lauren V, Wenzel, Lauren, and Duffy, J Emmett

Subjects
Environmental Sciences, Environmental Management, Life on Land, Life Below Water, Earth sciences, Environmental sciences
Published
2024

9. Evolution and connectivity influence the persistence and recovery of coral reefs under climate change in the Caribbean, Southwest Pacific, and Coral Triangle.

Author

McManus, Lisa, Forrest, Daniel, Tekwa, Edward, Schindler, Daniel, Colton, Madhavi, Webster, Michael, Essington, Timothy, Palumbi, Stephen, Mumby, Peter, and Pinsky, Malin

Subjects
Caribbean, Coral Triangle, Southwest Pacific, climate change, coral, eco-evolutionary dynamics, metacommunity, modeling, Animals, Anthozoa, Climate Change, Coral Reefs, Ecosystem, Temperature
Abstract

Corals are experiencing unprecedented decline from climate change-induced mass bleaching events. Dispersal not only contributes to coral reef persistence through demographic rescue but can also hinder or facilitate evolutionary adaptation. Locations of reefs that are likely to survive future warming therefore remain largely unknown, particularly within the context of both ecological and evolutionary processes across complex seascapes that differ in temperature range, strength of connectivity, network size, and other characteristics. Here, we used eco-evolutionary simulations to examine coral adaptation to warming across reef networks in the Caribbean, the Southwest Pacific, and the Coral Triangle. We assessed the factors associated with coral persistence in multiple reef systems to understand which results are general and which are sensitive to particular geographic contexts. We found that evolution can be critical in preventing extinction and facilitating the long-term recovery of coral communities in all regions. Furthermore, the strength of immigration to a reef (destination strength) and current sea surface temperature robustly predicted reef persistence across all reef networks and across temperature projections. However, we found higher initial coral cover, slower recovery, and more evolutionary lag in the Coral Triangle, which has a greater number of reefs and more larval settlement than the other regions. We also found the lowest projected future coral cover in the Caribbean. These findings suggest that coral reef persistence depends on ecology, evolution, and habitat network characteristics, and that, under an emissions stabilization scenario (RCP 4.5), recovery may be possible over multiple centuries.

Published
2021

10. New framework reveals gaps in US ocean biodiversity protection

Author

Gignoux-Wolfsohn, Sarah A., Dunn, Daniel C., Cleary, Jesse, Halpin, Patrick N., Anderson, Clarissa R., Bax, Nicholas J., Canonico, Gabrielle, Chaniotis, Peter, DeLand, Sarah, Diorio, Mimi, Gaines, Steven D., Grorud-Colvert, Kirsten, Johnson, David E., Levin, Lisa A., Lundquist, Carolyn J., Manca, Eleonora, Metaxas, Anna, Monaco, Mark E., Morgan, Lance, Mumby, Peter J., Nisthar, Dina, Pashkow, Brittany, Pike, Elizabeth P., Pinsky, Malin L., Ribera, Marta M., Stanley, Ryan R.E., Sullivan-Stack, Jenna, Sutton, Tracey T., Tittensor, Derek P., Weatherdon, Lauren V., Wenzel, Lauren, and Duffy, J. Emmett

Published
2024
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12. Evolution reverses the effect of network structure on metapopulation persistence.

Author

McManus, Lisa, Tekwa, Edward, Schindler, Daniel, Walsworth, Timothy, Colton, Madhavi, Webster, Michael, Essington, Timothy, Forrest, Daniel, Palumbi, Stephen, Mumby, Peter, and Pinsky, Malin

Subjects
adaptation, climate change, dispersal network, eco-evolutionary dynamics, environmental heterogeneity, metapopulations, population persistence, random network, regular network, Biological Evolution, Ecosystem, Models, Biological, Phenotype, Population Dynamics
Abstract

Global environmental change is challenging species with novel conditions, such that demographic and evolutionary trajectories of populations are often shaped by the exchange of organisms and alleles across landscapes. Current ecological theory predicts that random networks with dispersal shortcuts connecting distant sites can promote persistence when there is no capacity for evolution. Here, we show with an eco-evolutionary model that dispersal shortcuts across environmental gradients instead hinder persistence for populations that can evolve because long-distance migrants bring extreme trait values that are often maladaptive, short-circuiting the adaptive response of populations to directional change. Our results demonstrate that incorporating evolution and environmental heterogeneity fundamentally alters theoretical predictions regarding persistence in ecological networks.

Published
2021

13. Evaluating sustainable development policies in rural coastal economies

Author

Lindsay, Amanda R, Sanchirico, James N, Gilliland, Ted E, Ambo-Rappe, Rohani, Taylor, J Edward, Krueck, Nils C, and Mumby, Peter J

Subjects
Environmental Management, Economics, International and Comparative Law, Environmental Sciences, Human Society, Law and Legal Studies, Development Studies, No Poverty, Life Below Water, coupled human and natural system, bioeconomic model, general equilibrium
Abstract

Sustainable development (SD) policies targeting marine economic sectors, designed to alleviate poverty and conserve marine ecosystems, have proliferated in recent years. Many developing countries are providing poor fishing households with new fishing boats (fishing capital) that can be used further offshore as a means to improve incomes and relieve fishing pressure on nearshore fish stocks. These kinds of policies are a marine variant of traditional SD policies focused on agriculture. Here, we evaluate ex ante economic and environmental impacts of provisions of fishing and agricultural capital, with and without enforcement of fishing regulations that prohibit the use of larger vessels in nearshore habitats. Combining methods from development economics, natural resource economics, and marine ecology, we use a unique dataset and modeling framework to account for linkages between households, business sectors, markets, and local fish stocks. We show that the policies investing capital in local marine fisheries or agricultural sectors achieve income gains for targeted households, but knock-on effects lead to increased harvest of nearshore fish, making them unlikely to achieve conservation objectives in rural coastal economies. However, pairing an agriculture stimulus with increasing enforcement of existing fisheries' regulations may lead to a win-win situation. While marine-based policies could be an important tool to achieve two of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (alleviate poverty and protect vulnerable marine resources), their success is by no means assured and requires consideration of land and marine socioeconomic linkages inherent in rural economies.

Published
2020

14. Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes

Author

Cumming, Graeme S., Adamska, Maja, Barnes, Michele L., Barnett, Jon, Bellwood, David R., Cinner, Joshua E., Cohen, Philippa J., Donelson, Jennifer M., Fabricius, Katharina, Grafton, R. Quentin, Grech, Alana, Gurney, Georgina G., Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Hoey, Andrew S., Hoogenboom, Mia O., Lau, Jacqueline, Lovelock, Catherine E., Lowe, Ryan, Miller, David J., Morrison, Tiffany H., Mumby, Peter J., Nakata, Martin, Pandolfi, John M., Peterson, Garry D., Pratchett, Morgan S., Ravasi, Timothy, Riginos, Cynthia, Rummer, Jodie L., Schaffelke, Britta, Wernberg, Thomas, and Wilson, Shaun K.

Published
2023
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17. Chapter 5 Priority Species to Support the Functional Integrity of Coral Reefs

Author

Wolfe, Kennedy, Anthony, Ken, Babcock, Russell C., Bay, Line, Bourne, David G., Burrows, Damien, Byrne, Maria, Deaker, Dione J., Diaz-Pulido, Guillermo, Frade, Pedro R., Gonzalez-Rivero, Manuel, Hoey, Andrew, Hoogenboom, Mia, McCormick, Mark, Ortiz, Juan-Carlos, Razak, Tries, Richardson, Anthony J., Roff, George, Sheppard-Brennand, Hannah, Stella, Jessica, Thompson, Angus, Watson, Sue-Ann, Webster, Nicole, Audas, Donna, Beeden, Roger, Carver, Jesseca, Cowlishaw, Mel, Dyer, Michelle, Groves, Paul, Horne, Dylan, Thiault, Lauric, Vains, Jason, Wachenfeld, David, Weekers, Damien, Williams, Genevieve, and Mumby, Peter J.

Subjects
Volume, Todd, Swearer, Smith, S, Russell, Review, P, OMBAR, Oceanography, Marine, L, I, Hawkins, Firth, Evans, Biology, Bates,B, Annual, Allcock, thema EDItEUR::P Mathematics and Science::PS Biology, life sciences::PSP Hydrobiology::PSPM Marine biology
Abstract

Ecosystem-based management on coral reefs has historically focused on biodiversity conservation through the establishment of marine reserves, but it is increasingly recognised that a subset of species can be key to the maintenance of ecosystem processes and functioning. Specific provisions for these key taxa are essential to biodiversity conservation and resilience-based adaptive management. While a wealth of literature addresses ecosystem functioning on coral reefs, available information covers only a subset of specific taxa, ecological processes and environmental stressors. What is lacking is a comparative assessment across the diverse range of coral reef species to synthesise available knowledge to inform science and management. Here we employed expert elicitation coupled with a literature review to generate the first comprehensive assessment of 70 taxonomically diverse and functionally distinct coral reef species from microbes to top predators to summarise reef functioning. Although our synthesis is largely through the lens of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, a particularly data-rich system, it is relevant to coral reefs in general. We use this assessment to evaluate which taxa drive processes that maintain a healthy reef, and whether or not management of these taxa is considered a priority (i.e. are they vulnerable?) or is feasible (i.e. can they be managed?). Scientific certainty was scored to weight our recommendations, particularly when certainty was low. We use five case studies to highlight critical gaps in knowledge that limit our understanding of ecosystem functioning. To inform the development of novel management strategies and research objectives, we identify taxa that support positive interactions and enhance ecosystem performance, including those where these roles are currently underappreciated. We conclude that current initiatives effectively capture many priority taxa, but that there is significant room to increase opportunities for underappreciated taxa in both science and management to maximally safeguard coral reef functioning.

Published
2020

28. A diverse portfolio of marine protected areas can better advance global conservation and equity

Author

Gill, David A., Lester, Sarah E., Free, Christopher M., Pfaff, Alexander, Iversen, Edwin, Reich, Brian J., Yang, Shu, Ahmadia, Gabby, Andradi-Brown, Dominic A., Darling, Emily S., Edgar, Graham J., Fox, Helen E., Geldmann, Jonas, Le, Duong Trung, Mascia, Michael B., Mesa-Gutiérrez, Roosevelt, Mumby, Peter J., Veverka, Laura, Warmuth, Laura M., Gill, David A., Lester, Sarah E., Free, Christopher M., Pfaff, Alexander, Iversen, Edwin, Reich, Brian J., Yang, Shu, Ahmadia, Gabby, Andradi-Brown, Dominic A., Darling, Emily S., Edgar, Graham J., Fox, Helen E., Geldmann, Jonas, Le, Duong Trung, Mascia, Michael B., Mesa-Gutiérrez, Roosevelt, Mumby, Peter J., Veverka, Laura, and Warmuth, Laura M.

Abstract

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are widely used for ocean conservation, yet the relative impacts of various types of MPAs are poorly understood. We estimated impacts on fish biomass from no-take and multiple-use (fished) MPAs, employing a rigorous matched counterfactual design with a global dataset of >14,000 surveys in and around 216 MPAs. Both no-take and multiple-use MPAs generated positive conservation outcomes relative to no protection (58.2% and 12.6% fish biomass increases, respectively), with smaller estimated differences between the two MPA types when controlling for additional confounding factors (8.3% increase). Relative performance depended on context and management: no-take MPAs performed better in areas of high human pressure but similar to multiple-use in remote locations. Multiple-use MPA performance was low in high-pressure areas but improved significantly with better management, producing similar outcomes to no-take MPAs when adequately staffed and appropriate use regulations were applied. For priority conservation areas where no-take restrictions are not possible or ethical, our findings show that a portfolio of well-designed and well-managed multiple-use MPAs represents a viable and potentially equitable pathway to advance local and global conservation.

Published
2024

31. Reproducing within-reef variability in coral dynamics with a metacommunity modelling framework

Author

Cresswell, Anna Katrina, primary, Haller-Bull, Vanessa, additional, Gonzalez-Rivero, Manuel, additional, Gilmour, James P, additional, Bozec, Yves-Marie, additional, Barneche, Diego R, additional, Robson, Barbara, additional, Anthony, Ken, additional, Doropoulos, Christopher, additional, Roelfsema, Chris M, additional, Lyons, Mitchell, additional, Mumby, Peter J, additional, Condie, Scott, additional, Lago, Veronique, additional, and Ortiz, Juan-Carlos, additional

Published
2024
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43. The future of resilience-based management in coral reef ecosystems

Author

Mcleod, Elizabeth, Anthony, Kenneth R.N., Mumby, Peter J., Maynard, Jeffrey, Beeden, Roger, Graham, Nicholas A.J., Heron, Scott F., Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove, Jupiter, Stacy, MacGowan, Petra, Mangubhai, Sangeeta, Marshall, Nadine, Marshall, Paul A., McClanahan, Tim R., Mcleod, Karen, Nyström, Magnus, Obura, David, Parker, Britt, Possingham, Hugh P., Salm, Rodney V., and Tamelander, Jerker

Published
2019
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44. Climate change impacts on mesophotic regions of the Great Barrier Reef.

Author

McWhorter, Jennifer K., Halloran, Paul R., Roff, George, and Mumby, Peter J.

Subjects
CLIMATE change, REEFS, CORAL reefs & islands, OCEAN temperature, CLIMATE research
Abstract

Climate change projections for coral reefs are founded exclusively on sea surface temperatures (SST). While SST projections are relevant for the shallowest reefs, neglecting ocean stratification overlooks the striking differences in temperature experienced by deeper reefs for all or part of the year. Density stratification creates a buoyancy barrier partitioning the upper and lower parts of the water column. Here, we mechanistically downscale climate models and quantify patterns of thermal stratification above mesophotic corals (depth 30 to 50 m) of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). Stratification insulates many offshore regions of the GBR from heatwaves at the surface. However, this protection is lost once global average temperatures exceed ~3 ℃ above preindustrial, after which mesophotic temperatures surpass a recognized threshold of 30 ℃ for coral mortality. Bottom temperatures on the GBR (30 to 50 m) from 2050 to 2060 are estimated to increase by ~0.5 to 1 ℃ under lower climate emissions (SSP1-1.9) and ~1.2 to 1.7 ℃ under higher climate emissions (SSP5-8.5). In short, mesophotic coral reefs are also threatened by climate change and research might prioritize the sensitivity of such corals to stress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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