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Biomass burning activities can produce large quantities of smoke and result in adverse air quality conditions in regional environments. In Canada, Environment and Climate Change Canada's (ECCC) operational FireWork air quality forecast system incorporates near-real-time biomass burning emissions to forecast smoke plumes from fire events. The system is based on the ECCC operational Regional Air Quality Deterministic Prediction System (RAQDPS) augmented with near-real-time wildfire emissions using inputs from the Canadian Forest Service's (CFS) Canadian Wildland Fire Information System (CWFIS). Recent improvements to the representation of fire behaviour and fire emissions have been incorporated into the CFS Canadian Forest Fire Emissions Prediction System (CFFEPS). This is a bottom-up system linked to CWFIS in which hourly changes in biomass fuel consumption are parameterized with hourly forecasted meteorology at fire locations. CFFEPS has now also been connected to FireWork. In addition, a plume-rise parameterization based on fire energy thermodynamics is used to define the smoke injection height and the distribution of emissions within a model vertical column. The new system, FireWork-CFFEPS, has been evaluated over North America for July-September 2017 and June-August 2018, both periods when western Canada experienced historical levels of fire activity with poor air quality conditions in several cities as well as other fires affecting northern Canada and Ontario. Forecast results were evaluated against hourly surface measurements for the three pollutant species used to calculate the Canadian Air Quality Health Index (AQHI), namely PM2.5, O3, and NO2, and benchmarked against the operational FireWork system (FireWork-Ops). This comparison shows improved forecast performance and predictive skills for the FireWork-CFFEPS system. Modelled fire plume injection heights from CFFEPS based on fire energy thermodynamics show higher plume injection heights and larger variability. The changes in predicted fire emissions and injection height reduced the consistent over-predictions of PM2.5 and O3 seen in FireWork-Ops. On the other hand, there were minimal fire emission contributions to surface NO2, and results from FireWork-CFFEPS do not degrade NO2 forecast skill compared to the RAQDPS. Model performances statistics are slightly better for Canada than for the U.S., with lower errors and biases. The new system is still unable to capture the hourly variability of the observed values for PM2.5, but it captured the observed hourly variability for O3 concentration adequately. FireWork-CFFEPS also improves upon FireWork-Ops categorical scores for forecasting the occurrence of elevated air pollutant concentrations in terms of false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A first regional assessment of the impact of shipping emissions on air pollution in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions was conducted in this study. Model simulations were carried out on a limited-area domain (at 15-km horizontal resolution) centred over the Canadian Arctic, using the Environment and Climate Change Canada's on-line air quality forecast model (GEM-MACH), to investigate the contribution from the marine shipping emissions over the Canadian Arctic waters (at both present and projected future levels) to ambient concentrations of criteria pollutants (O3, PM2.5, NO2, and SO2), atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen, atmospheric loading and deposition of black carbon in the Arctic. Several model upgrades were introduced for this study, including the treatment of sea-ice in the dry deposition parameterization, chemical lateral boundary conditions, and the inclusion of North American wildfire emissions. The model is shown to have similar skills in predicting ambient O3 and PM2.5 concentrations in the Canadian Arctic and northern regions as the current operational air quality forecast models in North America and Europe. In particular, the model is able to simulate well the observed O3 and PM components at the Canadian high Arctic site, Alert. The model assessment shows that, at the current (2010) level, Arctic shipping emissions contribute to less than 1 % of ambient O3 concentration over the eastern Canadian Arctic and between 1 and 5 % of ambient PM2.5 concentration over the shipping channels. Arctic shipping emissions make a much greater contributions to the ambient NO2 and SO2 concentrations, at 10–50 % and 20–100 %, respectively. At the projected 2030 business-as-usual (BAU) level, the impact of Arctic shipping emissions is predicted to increase to up to 5 % in ambient O3 concentration over a broad region of the Canadian Arctic and to 5–20 % in ambient PM2.5 concentration over the shipping channels. In contrast, if emission controls such as the ones implemented in the current North American Emission Control Area (NA ECA) are to be put in place over the Canadian Arctic waters, the impact of shipping to ambient criteria pollutants would be significantly reduced. For example, with NA-ECA-like controls, the shipping contributions to population-weighted concentration of SO2 and PM2.5 would be brought down to below the current level. The contribution of Canadian Arctic shipping to the atmospheric deposition of sulphur and nitrogen is small at the current level, < 5 %, but is expected to increase to up to 20 % for sulphur and 50 % for nitrogen under the 2030 BAU scenario. At the current level, Canadian Arctic shipping also makes only small contributions to BC column loading and BC deposition, < 0.1 % on average and up to 2 % locally over eastern Canadian Arctic for the former, and between 0.1 and 0.5 % over the shipping channels for the latter. The impacts are again predicted to increase at the projected 2030 BAU level particularly over the Baffin Island and Baffin Bay area in response to the projected increase in ship traffic there, e.g., up to 15 % on BC column loading and locally exceeding 30 % on BC deposition. Overall, the study indicates that shipping induced changes in atmospheric composition and deposition are at regional to local scales (particularly in the Arctic). Climate feedbacks are thus likely to act at these scales so climate impact assessments will require modelling undertaken at much finer resolutions than those used in the existing radiative forcing and climate impact assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

FireWork is an on-line, one-way coupled meteorology-chemistry model based on near-real-time wildfire emissions. It was developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada to deliver operational real-time forecasts of biomass-burning pollutants, in particular fine particulate matter (PM2.5), over North America. Such forecasts provide guidance for early air quality alerts that could reduce air pollution exposure and protect human health. A multi-year (2013-2016) analysis of FireWork forecasts over a five-month period (May to September) was conducted. This work used an archive of FireWork outputs to quantify wildfire contributions to total PM2.5 surface concentrations across North America. Different concentration thresholds (0.2 to 28 μg/m³) and averaging periods (24 h to five months) were considered. Analysis suggested that, on average over the fire season, 76% of Canadians and 69% of Americans were affected by seasonal wildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations above 0.2 μg/m³. These effects were particularly pronounced in July and August. Futhermore, the analysis showed that fire emissions contributed more than 1 μg/m³ of daily average PM2.5 concentrations on more than 30% of days in the western USA and northwestern Canada during the fire season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]