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The fraction of ionizing photons that escape their host galaxies to ionize hydrogen in the inter-galactic medium (IGM) is a critical parameter in analyses of the reionization era. In this paper we use the Meraxes semi-analytic galaxy formation model to infer the mean ionizing photon escape fraction and its dependence on galaxy properties through joint modelling of the observed high redshift galaxy population and existing constraints on the reionization history. Using a Bayesian framework, and under the assumption that escape fraction is primarily related to halo mass, we find that the joint constraints of the UV luminosity function, CMB optical depth, and the Ly$\alpha$ forest require an escape fraction of $(18\pm5)\%$ for galaxies within haloes of $M\lesssim10^{9}$M$_\odot$ and $(5\pm2)\%$ for more massive haloes. In terms of galaxy properties, this transition in escape fraction occurs at stellar masses of $M_\star\sim10^7$M$_\odot$, nearly independent of redshift. As a function of redshift, reionization is dominated by the smaller $M_\star\lesssim10^7$M$_\odot$ galaxies with high escape fractions at $z\gtrsim6$ and by the larger $M_\star\gtrsim10^7$M$_\odot$ galaxies with lower escape fractions at $z\lesssim6$. Galaxies with star formation rates of $10^{-2.5}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$ to $10^{-1.5}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$ provide the dominant source of ionizing photons throughout reionization. Our results are consistent with recent direct measurements of a $\sim5\%$ escape fraction from massive galaxies at the end of reionization and support the picture of low mass galaxies being the dominant sources of ionizing photons during reionization., Comment: Updated to match accepted version for publication in MNRAS. Includes two new figures showing model predictions and related discussion

Preparing for the first detection of the cosmic 21-cm signal from large-scale interferometer experiments requires rigorous testing of the data analysis and reduction pipelines. To validate that these pipelines do not erroneously remove or add features that can mimic the cosmic signal (e.g. from side-lobes or large-scale power leakage), we require reionisation simulations larger than the experiments primary field of view. For an experiment such as the MWA, with a field of view of $\sim25^{2}$ deg.$^{2}$, this would require a simulation of several Gpcs, which is currently infeasible. To overcome this, we developed a simplified version of the semi-numerical reionisation simulation code 21CMFAST preferencing large volumes over some physical accuracy by assuming linear theory for structure formation. With this, we constructed a 7.5 Gpc comoving volume with voxel resolution of $\sim1.17$ cMpc tailored specifically to the binned spectral resolution of the MWA. This simulation was used for validating the pipelines for the 2020 MWA 21-cm power spectrum (PS) upper limits (Trott et al.). We then use this large-volume simulation to explore: (i) whether smaller volume simulations are biased by the missing large-scale modes, (ii) non-Gaussianity in estimates of the cosmic variance, (iii) biases in the recovered 21-cm PS following foreground wedge removal and (iv) the impact of tiling smaller volume simulations to achieve extremely large volumes. In summary, we find: (i) no biases from missing large-scale power, (ii) significant contribution from non-Gaussianity in the cosmic variance as expected following Mondal et al. (iii) an over-estimate of the 21-cm PS of 10-20 per cent following wedge mode excision for our particular model and (iv) tiling smaller volume simulations under-estimates the large-scale power and also the estimated cosmic variance., Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures and 1 table. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

The highly neutral inter-galactic medium (IGM) during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is expected to suppress Ly$\alpha$ emission with damping-wing absorption, causing nearly no Ly$\alpha$ detection from star-forming galaxies at $z{\sim}8$. However, spectroscopic observations of the 4 brightest galaxies (${\rm H}_{160}{\sim}25$ mag) at these redshifts do reveal prominent Ly$\alpha$ line, suggesting locally ionised IGM. In this paper, we explore the Ly$\alpha$ IGM transmission and environment of bright galaxies during the EoR using the Meraxes semi-analytic model. We find brighter galaxies to be less affected by damping-wing absorption as they are effective at ionizing surrounding neutral hydrogen. Specifically, the brightest sources (${\rm H}_{160}{\lesssim}25.5$ mag) lie in the largest ionized regions in our simulation, and have low attenuation of their Ly$\alpha$ from the IGM (optical depth ${<}1$). Fainter galaxies (25.5 mag${<}{\rm H}_{160}{<}27.5$ mag) have transmission that depends on UV luminosity, leading to a lower incidence of Ly$\alpha$ detection at fainter magnitudes. This luminosity-dependent attenuation explains why Ly$\alpha$ has only been observed in the brightest galaxies at $z{\sim}8$. Follow-up observations have revealed counterparts in the vicinity of these confirmed $z{\sim}8$ Ly$\alpha$ emitters. The environments of our modelled analogues agree with these observations in the number of nearby galaxies, which is a good indicator of whether Ly$\alpha$ can be detected among fainter galaxies. At the current observational limit, galaxies with ${\ge}2$--5 neighbours within $2'{\times}2'$ are ${\sim}2$--3 times more likely to show Ly$\alpha$ emission. JWST will discover an order of magnitude more neighbours, revealing ${\gtrsim}50$ galaxies in the largest ionizing bubbles and facilitating direct study of reionization morphology., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments are welcome

We demonstrate the potential of an emulator-based approach to analyzing galaxy formation models in the domain where constraining data is limited. We have applied the open-source Python package PRISM to the galaxy formation model Meraxes. Meraxes is a semi-analytic model, purposefully built to study the growth of galaxies during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). Constraining such models is however complicated by the scarcity of observational data in the EoR. PRISM's ability to rapidly construct accurate approximations of complex scientific models using minimal data is therefore key to performing this analysis well. This paper provides an overview of our analysis of Meraxes using measurements of galaxy stellar mass densities; luminosity functions; and color-magnitude relations. We demonstrate the power of using PRISM instead of a full Bayesian analysis when dealing with highly correlated model parameters and a scarce set of observational data. Our results show that the various observational data sets constrain Meraxes differently and do not necessarily agree with each other, signifying the importance of using multiple observational data types when constraining such models. Furthermore, we show that PRISM can detect when model parameters are too correlated or cannot be constrained effectively. We conclude that a mixture of different observational data types, even when they are scarce or inaccurate, is a priority for understanding galaxy formation and that emulation frameworks like PRISM can guide the selection of such data., Comment: 19 pages, 120 figures, accepted for publication in ApJS

We use the latest multi-redshift ($z=6.5-8.7$) upper limits on the 21-cm signal from the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) to explore astrophysical models which are inconsistent with the data. These upper limits are achieved using 298 h of carefully excised data over four observing seasons. To explore these upper limits in the context of reionisation astrophysics, we use 21CMMC. We then connect the disfavoured regions of parameter space to existing observational constraints on reionisation such as high-$z$ galaxy ultra-violet (UV) luminosity functions, background UV photoionisation rate, intergalactic medium (IGM) neutral fraction, the electron scattering optical depth and the soft-band X-ray emissivity. We find the vast majority of models disfavoured by the MWA limits are already inconsistent with existing observational constraints. These inconsistent models arise from two classes of models: (i) `cold' reionisation and (ii) pure matter density fluctuations (i.e. no reionisation). However, a small subsample of models are consistent implying the existing MWA limits provide unique information in disfavouring models of reionisation, albeit extremely weakly. We also provide the first limits on the soft-band X-ray emissivity from galaxies at high redshifts, finding $1\sigma$ lower limits of $\epsilon_{{\rm X},0.5-2~{\rm keV}}\gtrsim10^{34.5}$ erg s$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-3}$. Finally, we recover 95 per cent disfavoured limits on the IGM spin temperature of $\bar{T}_{\rm S}\lesssim$ 1.3, 1.4, 1.5, 1.8, 2.1, 2.4 K at $z=6.5, 6.8, 7.1, 7.8, 8.2, 8.7$. With this we infer the IGM must have undergone, at the very least, a small amount of X-ray heating. Note, the limits on $\epsilon_{{\rm X},0.5-2~{\rm keV}}$ and $\bar{T}_{\rm S}$ are conditional on the IGM neutral fraction., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures, 1 table. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2006.03203

Resolving faint galaxies in large volumes is critical for accurate cosmic reionisation simulations. While less demanding than hydrodynamical simulations, semi-analytic reionisation models still require very large N-body simulations in order to resolve the atomic cooling limit across the whole reionisation history within box sizes $\gtrsim 100 \, h^{-1} {\rm Mpc}$. To facilitate this, we extend the mass resolution of N-body simulations using a Monte Carlo algorithm. We also propose a method to evolve positions of Monte Carlo halos, which can be an input for semi-analytic reionisation models. To illustrate, we present an extended halo catalogue that reaches a mass resolution of $M_\text{halo} = 3.2 \times 10^7 \, h^{-1} \text{M}_\odot$ in a $105 \, h^{-1} {\rm Mpc}$ box, equivalent to an N-body simulation with $\sim 6800^3$ particles. The resulting halo mass function agrees with smaller volume N-body simulations with higher resolution. Our results also produce consistent two-point correlation functions with analytic halo bias predictions. The extended halo catalogues are applied to the \textsc{meraxes} semi-analytic reionisation model, which improves the predictions on stellar mass functions, star formation rate densities and volume-weighted neutral fractions. Comparison of high resolution large volume simulations with both small volume or low resolution simulations confirms that both low resolution and small volume simulations lead to reionisation ending too rapidly. Lingering discrepancies between the star formation rate functions predicted with and without our extensions can be traced to the uncertain contribution of satellite galaxies., Comment: 15 pages, 15 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Correlations between black holes and their host galaxies provide insight into what drives black hole-host co-evolution. We use the Meraxes semi-analytic model to investigate the growth of black holes and their host galaxies from high redshift to the present day. Our modelling finds no significant evolution in the black hole-bulge and black hole-total stellar mass relations out to a redshift of 8. The black hole-total stellar mass relation has similar but slightly larger scatter than the black hole-bulge relation, with the scatter in both decreasing with increasing redshift. In our modelling the growth of galaxies, bulges and black holes are all tightly related, even at the highest redshifts. We find that black hole growth is dominated by instability-driven or secular quasar-mode growth and not by merger-driven growth at all redshifts. Our model also predicts that disc-dominated galaxies lie on the black hole-total stellar mass relation, but lie offset from the black hole-bulge mass relation, in agreement with recent observations and hydrodynamical simulations., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We present a new analysis of high-redshift UV observations using a semi-analytic galaxy formation model, and provide self-consistent predictions of the infrared excess (IRX) -- $\beta$ relations and cosmic star formation rate density. We combine the Charlot & Fall dust attenuation model with the Meraxes semi-analytic model, and explore three different parametrisations for the dust optical depths, linked to star formation rate, dust-to-gas ratio and gas column density respectively. A Bayesian approach is employed to statistically calibrate model free parameters including star formation efficiency, mass loading factor, dust optical depths and reddening slope directly against UV luminosity functions and colour-magnitude relations at z ~ 4-7. The best-fit models show excellent agreement with the observations. We calculate IRX using energy balance arguments, and find that the large intrinsic scatter in the IRX -$\beta$ plane is driven by the specific star formation rate. Additionally, the difference among the three dust models suggests a factor of two systematic uncertainty in the dust-corrected star formation rate when using the Meurer IRX - $\beta$ relation at z > 4., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figure. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Intergalactic medium temperature is a powerful probe of the epoch of reionisation, as information is retained long after reionisation itself. However, mean temperatures are highly degenerate with the timing of reionisation, with the amount heat injected during the epoch, and with the subsequent cooling rates. We post-process a suite of semi-analytic galaxy formation models to characterise how different thermal statistics of the intergalactic medium can be used to constrain reionisation. Temperature is highly correlated with redshift of reionisation for a period of time after the gas is heated. However as the gas cools, thermal memory of reionisation is lost, and a power-law temperature-density relation is formed, $T = T_0(1+\delta)^{1-\gamma}$ with $\gamma \approx 1.5$. Constraining our model against observations of electron optical depth and temperature at mean density, we find that reionisation likely finished at $z_{\rm{reion}} = 6.8 ^{+ 0.5} _{-0.8}$ with a soft spectral slope of $\alpha = 2.8 ^{+ 1.2} _{-1.0}$. By restricting spectral slope to the range $[0.5,2.5]$ motivated by population II synthesis models, reionisation timing is further constrained to $z_{\rm{reion}} = 6.9 ^{+ 0.4} _{-0.5}$. We find that, in the future, the degeneracies between reionisation timing and background spectrum can be broken using the scatter in temperatures and integrated thermal history., Comment: 17 pages, 17 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We study the sizes, angular momenta and morphologies of high-redshift galaxies using an update of the Meraxes semi-analytic galaxy evolution model. Our model successfully reproduces a range of observations from redshifts $z=0$-$10$. We find that the effective radius of a galaxy disc scales with UV luminosity as $R_e\propto L_{\textrm{UV}}^{0.33}$ at $z=5$-$10$, and with stellar mass as $R_e\propto M_\ast^{0.24}$ at $z=5$ but with a slope that increases at higher redshifts. Our model predicts that the median galaxy size scales with redshift as $R_e \propto (1+z)^{-m}$, where $m=1.98\pm0.07$ for galaxies with $(0.3$-$1)L^\ast_{z=3}$ and $m=2.15\pm0.05$ for galaxies with $(0.12$-$0.3)L^\ast_{z=3}$. We find that the ratio between stellar and halo specific angular momentum is typically less than one and decreases with halo and stellar mass. This relation shows no redshift dependence, while the relation between specific angular momentum and stellar mass decreases by $\sim0.5$ dex from $z=7$ to $z=2$. Our model reproduces the distribution of local galaxy morphologies, with bulges formed predominantly through galaxy mergers for low-mass galaxies, disc-instabilities for galaxies with $M_\ast\simeq10^{10}$-$10^{11.5}M_\odot$, and major mergers for the most massive galaxies. At high redshifts, we find galaxy morphologies that are predominantly bulge-dominated., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We have built PRISM, a "Probabilistic Regression Instrument for Simulating Models". PRISM uses the Bayes linear approach and history matching to construct an approximation ('emulator') of any given model, by combining limited model evaluations with advanced regression techniques, covariances and probability calculations. It is designed to easily facilitate and enhance existing Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods by restricting plausible regions and exploring parameter space efficiently. However, PRISM can additionally be used as a standalone alternative to MCMC for model analysis, providing insight into the behavior of complex scientific models. With PRISM, the time spent on evaluating a model is minimized, providing developers with an advanced model analysis for a fraction of the time required by more traditional methods. This paper provides an overview of the different techniques and algorithms that are used within PRISM. We demonstrate the advantage of using the Bayes linear approach over a full Bayesian analysis when analyzing complex models. Our results show how much information can be captured by PRISM and how one can combine it with MCMC methods to significantly speed up calibration processes (>15 times faster). PRISM is an open-source Python package that is available under the BSD 3-Clause License (BSD-3) at https://github.com/1313e/PRISM and hosted at https://prism-tool.readthedocs.io. PRISM has also been reviewed by "The Journal of Open Source Software" (https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.01229)., Comment: 28 pages, 13 figures, 1 table. Updated to reflect some changes made to published version

We investigate the dependence of galaxy clustering at $z \sim 4 - 7$ on UV-luminosity and stellar mass. Our sample consists of $\sim$ 10,000 Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) in the XDF and CANDELS fields. As part of our analysis, the $M_\star - M_{\rm UV}$ relation is estimated for the sample, which is found to have a nearly linear slope of $d\log_{10} M_\star / d M_{\rm UV} \sim 0.44$. We subsequently measure the angular correlation function and bias in different stellar mass and luminosity bins. We focus on comparing the clustering dependence on these two properties. While UV-luminosity is only related to recent starbursts of a galaxy, stellar mass reflects the integrated build-up of the whole star formation history, which should make it more tightly correlated with halo mass. Hence, the clustering segregation with stellar mass is expected to be larger than with luminosity. However, our measurements suggest that the segregation with luminosity is larger with $\simeq 90\%$ confidence (neglecting contributions from systematic errors). We compare this unexpected result with predictions from the \textsc{Meraxes} semi-analytic galaxy formation model. Interestingly, the model reproduces the observed angular correlation functions, and also suggests stronger clustering segregation with luminosity. The comparison between our observations and the model provides evidence of multiple halo occupation in the small scale clustering., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in MNRAS

We directly compare predictions of dwarf galaxy properties in a semi-analytic model (SAM) with those extracted from a high-resolution hydrodynamic simulation. We focus on galaxies with halo masses of 1e910$), with the relevant time-scale becoming significantly longer towards lower redshifts. This indicates efficient accretion in cold mode in these low-mass objects at high redshift. Note that the improved SAM, which has been calibrated against hydrodynamic simulations, can provide more accurate predictions of high-redshift dwarf galaxy properties that are essential for reionization study., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures; submitted to MNRAS, comments are welcome

The most luminous galaxies at high-redshift are generally considered to be hosted in massive dark-matter halos of comparable number density, hence residing at the center of overdensities/protoclusters. We assess the validity of this assumption by investigating the clustering around the brightest galaxies populating the cosmic web at redshift $z\sim8-9$ through a combination of semi-analytic modeling and Monte Carlo simulations of mock Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 observations. The innovative aspect of our approach is the inclusion of a log-normal scatter parameter $\Sigma$ in the galaxy luminosity versus halo mass relation, extending to high-$z$ the conditional luminosity function framework extensively used at low redshift. Our analysis shows that the larger the value of $\Sigma$, the less likely that the brightest source in a given volume is hosted in the most massive halo, and hence the weaker the overdensity of neighbors. We derive a minimum value of $\Sigma$ as a function of redshift by considering stochasticity in the halo assembly times, which affects galaxy ages and star formation rates in our modeling. We show that $\Sigma_{min}(z)\sim0.15-0.3$, with $\Sigma_{min}$ increasing with redshift as a consequence of shorter halo assembly periods at higher redshifts. Current observations ($m_{AB}\sim27$) of the environment of spectroscopically confirmed bright sources at $z>7.5$ do not show strong evidence of clustering and are consistent with our modeling predictions for $\Sigma\geq\Sigma_{min}$. Deeper future observations reaching $m_{AB}\sim28.2-29$ would have the opportunity to clearly quantify the clustering strength, and hence to constrain $\Sigma$, investigating the physical processes that drive star formation in the early Universe., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures, 1 table; accepted for publication in ApJ

We study dwarf galaxy formation at high redshift ($z\ge5$) using a suite of high- resolution, cosmological hydrodynamic simulations and a semi-analytic model (SAM). We focus on gas accretion, cooling and star formation in this work by isolating the relevant process from reionization and supernova feedback, which will be further discussed in a companion paper. We apply the SAM to halo merger trees constructed from a collisionless N-body simulation sharing identical initial conditions to the hydrodynamic suite, and calibrate the free parameters against the stellar mass function predicted by the hydrodynamic simulations at z = 5. By making comparisons of the star formation history and gas components calculated by the two modelling techniques, we find that semi-analytic prescriptions that are commonly adopted in the literature of low-redshift galaxy formation do not accurately represent dwarf galaxy properties in the hydrodynamic simulation at earlier times. We propose 3 modifications to SAMs that will provide more accurate high-redshift simulations. These include 1) the halo mass and baryon fraction which are overestimated by collisionless N-body simulations; 2) the star formation efficiency which follows a different cosmic evolutionary path from the hydrodynamic simulation; and 3) the cooling rate which is not well defined for dwarf galaxies at high redshift. Accurate semi-analytic modelling of dwarf galaxy formation informed by detailed hydrodynamical modelling will facilitate reliable semi-analytic predictions over the large volumes needed for the study of reionization., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures; Updated to match the published version. All results and conclusions remain unchanged

We introduce gbpTrees: an algorithm for constructing merger trees from cosmological simulations, designed to identify and correct for pathological cases introduced by errors or ambiguities in the halo finding process. gbpTrees is built upon a halo matching method utilising pseudo-radial moments constructed from radially-sorted particle ID lists (no other information is required) and a scheme for classifying merger tree pathologies from networks of matches made to-and-from haloes across snapshots ranging forward-and-backward in time. Focusing on Subfind catalogs for this work, a sweep of parameters influencing our merger tree construction yields the optimal snapshot cadence and scanning range required for converged results. Pathologies proliferate when snapshots are spaced by $\lesssim{0.128}$ dynamical times; conveniently similar to that needed for convergence of semi-analytical modelling, as established by Benson etal Total merger counts are converged at the level of $\sim{5}$% for friends-of-friends (FoF) haloes of size $n_{\rm p}\gtrsim{75}$ across a factor of 512 in mass resolution, but substructure rates converge more slowly with mass resolution, reaching convergence of $\sim{10}$% for $n_{\rm p}\gtrsim{100}$ and particle mass $m_{\rm p}{\lesssim}10^{9}M_\odot$. We present analytic fits to FoF and substructure merger rates across nearly all observed galactic history ($z{\le}8.5$). While we find good agreement with the results presented by Fakhouri etal for FoF haloes, a slightly flatter dependance on merger ratio and increased major merger rates are found, reducing previously reported discrepancies with extended Press-Schechter estimates. When appropriately defined, substructure merger rates show a similar mass ratio dependance as FoF rates, but with stronger mass and redshift dependencies for their normalisation., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. 25 pages, 17 figures. Movies available at http://www.astronomy.swin.edu.au/~gpoole/gbpTrees.html . Code available at https://github.com/gbpoole/gbpCode

In studies of the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGN) and their host galaxies there is widespread disagreement on some key aspects stemming largely from a lack of understanding of the nature of the full underlying AGN population. Recent attempts to probe this connection utilize both observations and simulations to correct for a missed population, but presently are limited by intrinsic biases and complicated models. We take a simple simulation for galaxy evolution and add a new prescription for AGN activity to connect galaxy growth to dark matter halo properties and AGN activity to star formation. We explicitly model selection effects to produce an "observed" AGN population for comparison with observations and empirically motivated models of the local universe. This allows us to bypass the difficulties inherent in many models which attempt to infer the AGN population by inverting selection effects. We investigate the impact of selecting AGN based on thresholds in luminosity or Eddington ratio on the "observed" AGN population. By limiting our model AGN sample in luminosity, we are able to recreate the observed local AGN luminosity function and specific star formation-stellar mass distribution, and show that using an Eddington ratio threshold introduces less bias into the sample by selecting the full range of growing black holes, despite the challenge of selecting low mass black holes. We find that selecting AGN using these various thresholds yield samples with different AGN host galaxy properties., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures. Accepted for publication in ApJ

Using a series of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations we show that during the rapid growth of high-redshift (z > 5) galaxies, reserves of molecular gas are consumed over a time-scale of 300Myr, almost independent of feedback scheme. We find that there exists no such simple relation for the total gas fractions of these galaxies, with little correlation between gas fractions and specific star formation rates. The bottleneck or limiting factor in the growth of early galaxies is in converting infalling gas to cold star-forming gas. Thus, we find that the majority of high redshift dwarf galaxies are effectively in recession, with demand (of star formation) never rising to meet supply (of gas), irrespective of the baryonic feedback physics modelled. We conclude that the basic assumption of self-regulation in galaxies - that they can adjust total gas consumption within a Hubble time - does not apply for the dwarf galaxies thought to be responsible for providing most UV photons to reionize the high redshift Universe. We demonstrate how this rapid molecular time-scale improves agreement between semi-analytic model predictions of the early Universe and observed stellar mass functions., Comment: 17 pages, 27 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, minor updates to align with final published version

Direct detection of regions of ionized hydrogen (HII) has been suggested as a promising probe of cosmic reionization. Observing the redshifted 21-cm signal of hydrogen from the epoch of reionization (EoR) is a key scientific driver behind new-generation, low-frequency radio interferometers. We investigate the feasibility of combining low-frequency observations with the Square Kilometre Array and near infra-red survey data of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope to detect cosmic reionization by imaging HII bubbles surrounding massive galaxies during the cosmic dawn. While individual bubbles will be too small to be detected, we find that by stacking redshifted 21-cm spectra centred on known galaxies, it will be possible to directly detect the EoR at $z \sim 9-12$, and to place qualitative constraints on the evolution of the spin temperature of the intergalactic medium (IGM) at $z \geq 9$. In particular, given a detection of ionized bubbles using this technique, it is possible to determine if the IGM surrounding them is typically in absorption or emission. Determining the globally-averaged neutral fraction of the IGM using this method will prove more difficult due to degeneracy with the average size of HII regions., Comment: 14 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables, published in MNRAS. Updated to match published version. Additional results and comments added from previous version. All other results and conclusions remain unchanged

Massive quiescent galaxies (MQGs) are thought to have formed stars rapidly at early times followed by a long period of quiescence. The recent discovery of a MQG, ZF-COSMOS-20115 at $z\sim4$, only 1.5 Gyr after the big bang, places new constraints on galaxy growth and the role of feedback in early star formation. Spectroscopic follow-up confirmed ZF-COSMOS-20115 as a MQG at $z=3.717$ with an estimated stellar mass of ${\sim}10^{11}\mathrm{M}_\odot$, showing no evidence of recent star formation. We use the Meraxes semi-analytic model to investigate how ZF-COSMOS-20115 analogues build stellar mass, and why they become quiescent. We identify three analogue galaxies with similar properties to ZF-COSMOS-20115. We find that ZF-COSMOS-20115 is likely hosted by a massive halo with virial mass of ${\sim}10^{13}\mathrm{M}_\odot$, having been through significant mergers at early times. These merger events drove intense growth of the nucleus, which later prevented cooling and quenched star formation. ZF-COSMOS-20115 likely remained quiescent at $z<3.7$. We find that the analogues host the most massive black holes in our simulation and were luminous quasars at $z\sim5$, indicating that ZF-COSMOS-20115 and other MQGs may be the descendants of high-redshift quasars. In addition, the model suggests that ZF-COSMOS-20115 formed in a region of intergalactic medium that was reionized early., Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures; Updated to match the published version. All results and conclusions remain unchanged

We investigate the clustering properties of Lyman-break galaxies (LBGs) at $z\sim6$ - $8$. Using the semi-analytical model {\scshape Meraxes} constructed as part of the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulation (DRAGONS) project, we predict the angular correlation function (ACF) of LBGs at $z\sim6$ - $8$. Overall, we find that the predicted ACFs are in good agreement with recent measurements at $z\sim 6$ and $z\sim 7.2$ from observations consisting of the Hubble eXtreme Deep Field (XDF), the Hubble Ultra-Deep Field (HUDF) and Cosmic Assembly Near-infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey (CANDELS) field. We confirm the dependence of clustering on luminosity, with more massive dark matter haloes hosting brighter galaxies, remains valid at high redshift. The predicted galaxy bias at fixed luminosity is found to increase with redshift, in agreement with observations. We find that LBGs of magnitude $M_{{\rm AB(1600)}} < -19.4$ at $6\lesssim z \lesssim 8$ reside in dark matter haloes of mean mass $\sim 10^{11.0}$- $10^{11.5} M_{\rm \odot}$, and this dark matter halo mass does not evolve significantly during reionisation., Comment: 14 pages, 10 figures, published in MNRAS

Motivated by recent measurements of the number density of faint AGN at high redshift, we investigate the contribution of quasars to reionization by tracking the growth of central supermassive black holes in an update of the Meraxes semi-analytic model. The model is calibrated against the observed stellar mass function at $z\sim0.6-7$, the black hole mass function at $z\lesssim0.5$, the global ionizing emissivity at $z\sim2-5$ and the Thomson scattering optical depth. The model reproduces a Magorrian relation in agreement with observations at $z<0.5$ and predicts a decreasing black hole mass towards higher redshifts at fixed total stellar mass. With the implementation of an opening angle of 80 deg for quasar radiation, corresponding to an observable fraction of ${\sim}23.4$ per cent due to obscuration by dust, the model is able to reproduce the observed quasar luminosity function at $z\sim0.6-6$. The stellar light from galaxies hosting faint AGN contributes a significant or dominant fraction of the UV flux. At high redshift, the model is consistent with the bright end quasar luminosity function and suggests that the recent faint $z\sim4$ AGN sample compiled by Giallongo et al. (2015) includes a significant fraction of stellar light. Direct application of this luminosity function to the calculation of AGN ionizing emissivity consequently overestimates the number of ionizing photons produced by quasars by a factor of 3 at $z\sim6$. We conclude that quasars are unlikely to make a significant contribution to reionization., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures; Updated to match the published version. All results and conclusions remain unchanged

We investigate how the hydrostatic suppression of baryonic accretion affects the growth rate of dark matter halos during the Epoch of Reionization. By comparing halo properties in a simplistic hydrodynamic simulation in which gas only cools adiabatically, with its collisionless equivalent, we find that halo growth is slowed as hydrostatic forces prevent gas from collapsing. In our simulations, at the high redshifts relevant for reionization (between ${\sim}6$ and ${\sim}11$), halos that host dwarf galaxies ($\lesssim 10^{9} \mathrm{M_\odot}$) can be reduced by up to a factor of 2 in mass due to the hydrostatic pressure of baryons. Consequently, the inclusion of baryonic effects reduces the amplitude of the low mass tail of the halo mass function by factors of 2 to 4. In addition, we find that the fraction of baryons in dark matter halos hosting dwarf galaxies at high redshift never exceeds ${\sim}90\%$ of the cosmic baryon fraction. When implementing baryonic processes, including cooling, star formation, supernova feedback and reionization, the suppression effects become more significant with further reductions of ${\sim}30\%$ to 60\%. Although convergence tests suggest that the suppression may become weaker in higher resolution simulations, this suppressed growth will be important for semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, in which the halo mass inherited from an underlying N-body simulation directly determines galaxy properties. Based on the adiabatic simulation, we provide tables to account for these effects in N-body simulations, and present a modification of the halo mass function along with explanatory analytic calculations., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures; Updated to match the published version. Two changes in Figures 1 and 3 in order to 1) correct bin sizes of the 10^8 and 10^8.5 Msol bins for NOSN_NOZCOOL_NoRe (was 0.5, should be 0.25); 2) include stellar mass in baryon fraction (was missed in Fig. 3). Quantitative description of Fig. 3 changed slightly in Section 2.2. All other results and conclusions remain unchanged

We investigate high-redshift galaxy sizes using a semi-analytic model constructed for the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulation project. Our fiducial model, including strong feedback from supernovae and photoionization background, accurately reproduces the evolution of the stellar mass function and UV luminosity function. Using this model, we study the size--luminosity relation of galaxies and find that the effective radius scales with UV luminosity as $R_\mathrm{e}\propto L^{0.25}$ at $z{\sim}5$--$9$. We show that recently discovered very luminous galaxies at $z{\sim}7$ (Bowler et al. 2016) and $z{\sim}11$ (Oesch et al. 2016) lie on our predicted size--luminosity relations. We find that a significant fraction of galaxies at $z>8$ will not be resolved by JWST, but GMT will have the ability to resolve all galaxies in haloes above the atomic cooling limit. We show that our fiducial model successfully reproduces the redshift evolution of average galaxy sizes at $z>5$. We also explore galaxy sizes in models without supernova feedback. The no-supernova feedback models produce galaxy sizes that are smaller than observations. We therefore confirm that supernova feedback plays an important role in determining the size--luminosity relation of galaxies and its redshift evolution during reionization., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We investigate the properties of the stellar populations of model galaxies as a function of galaxy evolutionary history and angular momentum content. We use the new semi-analytic model presented in Tonini et al. (2016). This new model follows the angular momentum evolution of gas and stars, providing the base for a new star formation recipe, and treatment of the effects of mergers that depends on the central galaxy dynamical structure. We find that the new recipes have the effect of boosting the efficiency of the baryonic cycle in producing and recycling metals, as well as preventing minor mergers from diluting the metallicity of bulges and ellipticals. The model reproduces the stellar mass - stellar metallicity relation for galaxies above 1e10 solar masses, including Brightest Cluster Galaxies. Model disks, galaxies dominated by instability-driven components, and merger-driven objects each stem from different evolutionary channels. These model galaxies therefore occupy different loci in the galaxy mass-size relation, which we find to be in accord with the Atlas 3D classification of disk galaxies, fast rotators and slow rotators. We find that the stellar populations' properties depend on the galaxy evolutionary type, with more evolved stellar populations being part of systems that have lost or dissipated more angular momentum during their assembly history., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures (3 new figures), accepted on MNRAS

Using Hubble data, including new grism spectra, Oesch et al. recently identified GN-z11, an $M_\textrm{UV}$=-21.1 galaxy at $z$=11.1 (just 400Myr after the big bang). With an estimated stellar mass of $\sim$10$^9$M$_{\odot}$, this galaxy is surprisingly bright and massive, raising questions as to how such an extreme object could form so early in the Universe. Using \Meraxes{}, a semi-analytic galaxy-formation model developed as part of the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) programme, we investigate the potential formation mechanisms and eventual fate of GN-z11. The volume of our simulation is comparable to that of the discovery observations and possesses two analogue galaxies of similar luminosity to this remarkably bright system. Existing in the two most massive subhaloes at $z$=11.1 ($M_\textrm{vir}$=1.4$\times 10^{11}$M$_{\odot}$ and 6.7$\times 10^{10}$M$_{\odot}$), our model analogues show excellent agreement with all available observationally derived properties of GN-z11. Although they are relatively rare outliers from the full galaxy population at high-$z$, they are no longer the most massive or brightest systems by $z$=5. Furthermore, we find that both objects possess relatively smooth, but extremely rapid mass growth histories with consistently high star formation rates and UV luminosities at $z{>}11$, indicating that their brightness is not a transient, merger-driven feature. Our model results suggest that future wide-field surveys with the \textit{James Webb Space Telescope} may be able to detect the progenitors of GN-z11 analogues out to $z{\sim}$13--14, pushing the frontiers of galaxy-formation observations to the early phases of cosmic reionization and providing a valuable glimpse of the first galaxies to reionize the Universe on large scales., Comment: Updated to match published version. Minor correction to figure 2, with no resulting changes to findings. 8 pages, 6 figures, published in MNRAS

We present the new semi-analytic model of galaxy evolution, DARK SAGE, a heavily modified version of the publicly available SAGE code. The model is designed for detailed evolution of galactic discs. We evolve discs in a series of annuli with fixed specific angular momentum, which allows us to make predictions for the radial and angular-momentum structure of galaxies. Most physical processes, including all channels of star formation and associated feedback, are performed in these annuli. We present the surface density profiles of our model spiral galaxies, both as a function of radius and specific angular momentum, and find the discs naturally build a pseduobulge-like component. Our main results are focussed on predictions relating to the integrated mass--specific angular momentum relation of stellar discs. The model produces a distinct sequence between these properties in remarkable agreement with recent observational literature. We investigate the impact Toomre disc instabilities have on shaping this sequence and find they are crucial for regulating both the mass and spin of discs. Without instabilities, high-mass discs would be systematically deficient in specific angular momentum by a factor of ~2.5, with increased scatter. Instabilities also appear to drive the direction in which the mass--spin sequence of spiral galaxy discs evolves. With them, we find galaxies of fixed mass have higher specific angular momentum at later epochs., Comment: Published in MNRAS, 19 pages, 20 figures (both including appendices)

We present a theoretical model for the evolution of mass, angular momentum and size of galaxy disks and bulges, and we implement it into the semi-analytic galaxy formation code SAGE. The model follows both secular and violent evolutionary channels, including smooth accretion, disk instabilities, minor and major mergers. We find that the combination of our recipe with hierarchical clustering produces two distinct populations of bulges: merger-driven bulges, akin to classical bulges and ellipticals, and instability-driven bulges, akin to secular (or pseudo-)bulges. The model mostly reproduces the mass-size relation of gaseous and stellar disks, the evolution of the mass-size relation of ellipticals, the Faber-Jackson relation, and the magnitude-colour diagram of classical and secular bulges. The model predicts only a small overlap of merger-driven and instability-driven components in the same galaxy, and predicts different bulge types as a function of galaxy mass and disk fraction. Bulge type also affects the star formation rate and colour at a given luminosity. The model predicts a population of merger-driven red ellipticals that dominate both the low-mass and high-mass ends of the galaxy population, and span all dynamical ages; merger-driven bulges in disk galaxies are dynamically old and do not interfere with subsequent evolution of the star-forming component. Instability-driven bulges dominate the population at intermediate galaxy masses, especially thriving in massive disks. The model green valley is exclusively populated by instability-driven bulge hosts. Through the present implementation the mass accretion history is perceivable in the galaxy structure, morphology and colours., Comment: Accepted on MNRAS; 24 pages, 11 figures

This paper describes a new publicly available codebase for modelling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, the "Semi-Analytic Galaxy Evolution" model, or SAGE for short. SAGE is a significant update to that used in Croton et al. (2006) and has been rebuilt to be modular and customisable. The model will run on any N-body simulation whose trees are organised in a supported format and contain a minimum set of basic halo properties. In this work we present the baryonic prescriptions implemented in SAGE to describe the formation and evolution of galaxies, and their calibration for three N-body simulations: Millennium, Bolshoi, and GiggleZ. Updated physics include: gas accretion, ejection due to feedback, and reincorporation via the galactic fountain; a new gas cooling--radio mode active galactic nucleus (AGN) heating cycle; AGN feedback in the quasar mode; a new treatment of gas in satellite galaxies; and galaxy mergers, disruption, and the build-up of intra-cluster stars. Throughout, we show the results of a common default parameterization on each simulation, with a focus on the local galaxy population., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, accepted for publication in ApJS. SAGE is a publicly available codebase for modelling galaxy formation in a cosmological context, available at https://github.com/darrencroton/sage Questions and comments can be sent to Darren Croton: dcroton@astro.swin.edu.au

We use the Dark-ages, Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) framework to investigate the effect of galaxy-formation physics on the morphology and statistics of ionized hydrogen (HII) regions during the Epoch of Reioinization (EoR). DRAGONS self-consistently couples a semi-analytic galaxy-formation model with the inhomogeneous ionizing UV background, and can therefore be used to study the dependence of morphology and statistics of reionization on feedback phenomena of the ionizing source galaxy population. Changes in galaxy-formation physics modify the sizes of HII regions and the amplitude and shape of 21-cm power spectra. Of the galaxy physics investigated, we find that supernova feedback plays the most important role in reionization, with HII regions up to $\approx 20$ per cent smaller and a fractional difference in the amplitude of power spectra of up to $\approx 17$ per cent at fixed ionized fraction in the absence of this feedback. We compare our galaxy-formation-based reionization models with past calculations that assume constant stellar-to-halo mass ratios and find that with the correct choice of minimum halo mass, such models can mimic the predicted reionization morphology. Reionization morphology at fixed neutral fraction is therefore not uniquely determined by the details of galaxy formation, but is sensitive to the mass of the haloes hosting the bulk of the ionizing sources. Simple EoR parametrizations are therefore accurate predictors of reionization statistics. However, a complete understanding of reionization using future 21-cm observations will require interpretation with realistic galaxy-formation models, in combination with other observations., Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, published in MNRAS

In this paper we present calculations of the UV luminosity function from the Dark-ages Reionization And Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) project, which combines N-body, semi-analytic and semi-numerical modelling designed to study galaxy formation during the Epoch of Reionization. Using galaxy formation physics including supernova feedback, the model naturally reproduces the UV LFs for high-redshift star-forming galaxies from $z{\sim}5$ through to $z{\sim}10$. We investigate the luminosity--star formation rate (SFR) relation, finding that variable SFR histories of galaxies result in a scatter around the median relation of $0.1$--$0.3$ dex depending on UV luminosity. We find close agreement between the model and observationally derived SFR functions. We use our calculated luminosities to investigate the luminosity function below current detection limits, and the ionizing photon budget for reionization. We predict that the slope of the UV LF remains steep below current detection limits and becomes flat at $M_\mathrm{UV}{\gtrsim}{-14}$. We find that $48$ ($17$) per cent of the total UV flux at $z{\sim}6$ ($10$) has been detected above an observational limit of $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$, and that galaxies fainter than $M_\mathrm{UV}{\sim}{-17}$ are the main source of ionizing photons for reionization. We investigate the luminosity--stellar mass relation, and find a correlation for galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{<}{-14}$ that has the form $M_*{\propto}10^{-0.47M_\mathrm{UV}}$, in good agreement with observations, but which flattens for fainter galaxies. We determine the luminosity--halo mass relation to be $M_\mathrm{vir}{\propto}10^{-0.35M_\mathrm{UV}}$, finding that galaxies with $M_\mathrm{UV}{=}{-20}$ reside in host dark matter haloes of $10^{11.0\pm 0.1}\mathrm{M_\odot}$ at $z{\sim}6$, and that this mass decreases towards high redshift., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We introduce Meraxes, a new, purpose-built semi-analytic galaxy formation model designed for studying galaxy growth during reionization. Meraxes is the first model of its type to include a temporally and spatially coupled treatment of reionization and is built upon a custom (100 Mpc)$^3$ N-body simulation with high temporal and mass resolution, allowing us to resolve the galaxy and star formation physics relevant to early galaxy formation. Our fiducial model with supernova feedback reproduces the observed optical depth to electron scattering and evolution of the galaxy stellar mass function between $z$=5 and 7, predicting that a broad range of halo masses contribute to reionization. Using a constant escape fraction and global recombination rate, our model is unable to simultaneously match the observed ionizing emissivity at $z{\lesssim}6$. However, the use of an evolving escape fraction of 0.05-0.1 at $z{\sim}6$, increasing towards higher redshift, is able to satisfy these three constraints. We also demonstrate that photoionization suppression of low mass galaxy formation during reionization has only a small effect on the ionization history of the inter-galactic medium. This lack of `self-regulation' arises due to the already efficient quenching of star formation by supernova feedback. It is only in models with gas supply-limited star formation that reionization feedback is effective at regulating galaxy growth. We similarly find that reionization has only a small effect on the stellar mass function, with no observationally detectable imprint at $M_{\rm *}{>}10^{7.5}\,{\rm M_{{\odot}}}$. However, patchy reionization has significant effects on individual galaxy masses, with variations of factors of 2-3 at $z$=5 that correlate with environment., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures; published in MNRAS; Updated to match published version. Additional results and fitting formulae added from previous version. All other results and conclusions remain unchanged

We use high resolution N-Body simulations to study the concentration and spin parameters of dark matter haloes in the mass range $10^8\, {\rm M}_{\odot}\, h^{-1} < {\rm M} < 10^{11}\, {\rm M}_{\odot}\, h^{-1}$ and redshifts $5{<}z{<}10$, corresponding to the haloes of galaxies thought to be responsible for reionization. We build a sub-sample of equilibrium haloes and contrast their properties to the full population that also includes unrelaxed systems. Concentrations are calculated by fitting both NFW and Einasto profiles to the spherically-averaged density profiles of individual haloes. After removing haloes that are out-of-equilibrium, we find a $z{>}5$ concentration$-$mass ($c(M)$) relation that is almost flat and well described by a simple power-law for both NFW and Einasto fits. The intrinsic scatter around the mean relation is $\Delta c_{\rm{vir}}{\sim1}$ (or 20 per cent) at $z=5$. We also find that the analytic model proposed by Ludlow et al. reproduces the mass and redshift-dependence of halo concentrations. Our best-fit Einasto shape parameter, $\alpha$, depends on peak height, $\nu$, in a manner that is accurately described by $\alpha {=}0.0070\nu^2{+}0.1839$. The distribution of the spin parameter, $\lambda$, has a weak dependence on equilibrium state; $\lambda$ peaks at roughly ${\sim}0.033$ for our relaxed sample, and at ${\sim}0.04$ for the full population. The spin--virial mass relation has a mild negative correlation at high redshift.

We present the Dark-ages Reionization and Galaxy-formation Observables from Numerical Simulations (DRAGONS) program and Tiamat, the collisionless N-body simulation program upon which DRAGONS is built. The primary trait distinguishing Tiamat from other large simulation programs is its density of outputs at high redshift (100 from z=35 to z=5; roughly one every 10 Myr) enabling the construction of very accurate merger trees at an epoch when galaxy formation is rapid and mergers extremely frequent. We find that the friends-of-friends halo mass function agrees well with the prediction of Watson et al. at high masses, but deviates at low masses, perhaps due to our use of a different halo finder or perhaps indicating a break from "universal" behaviour. We then analyse the dynamical evolution of galaxies during the Epoch of Reionization finding that only a small fraction (~20%) of galactic halos are relaxed. We illustrate this using standard relaxation metrics to establish two dynamical recovery time-scales: i) halos need ~1.5 dynamical times following formation, and ii) ~2 dynamical times following a major (3:1) or minor (10:1) merger to be relaxed. This is remarkably consistent across a wide mass range. Lastly, we use a phase-space halo finder to illustrate that major mergers drive long-lived massive phase-space structures which take many dynamical times to dissipate. This can yield significant differences in the inferred mass build-up of galactic halos and we suggest that care must be taken to ensure a physically meaningful match between the galaxy-formation physics of semi-analytic models and the halo finders supplying their input., Comment: 15 pages, 10 figures. Accepted for publication by MNRAS

We use the Gigaparsec WiggleZ (GiggleZ) simulations to characterise galaxy bias and its scale dependence for a range of redshifts and halo masses in a standard $\Lambda$LCDM cosmology. Assuming bias converges to a scale independent form at large scales, we develop a phenomenological model which fully expresses the mass and redshift dependence of bias and its scale dependence in real or redshift space. We then use this to illustrate how scale-dependent bias can systematically skew measurements of the growth-rate of cosmic structure obtained from redshift-space distortion measurements. When data is fit only to scales $k_{\rm max}{\le}0.1$ $[h^{-1} \rm{Mpc}]^{-1}$, we find that these effects are significant only for large biases ($b{\gtrsim}3$) at large redshifts ($z{\gtrsim}1$). However, when smaller scales are incorporated ($k_{\rm max}{\le}0.2$ $[h^{-1} \rm{Mpc}]^{-1}$) to increase measurement precision, the combination of reduced statistical uncertainty and increased scale dependent bias can result in highly significant systematics for most large halos across all redshifts. We identify several new interesting aspects of bias, including a significant large-scale bias boost for small halos at low-redshifts due to substructure effects ($\sim$20\% for Milky Way-like systems) and a nearly redshift-independent halo mass (corresponding to a redshift-space bias of ${\sim}1.5$) for which halo bias has little-or-no scale dependence on scales greater than $3$ $[h^{-1} {\rm Mpc}]$. This suggests an optimal strategy of targeting bias ${\sim}{1.5}$ systems for clustering studies which are dominated by systematic uncertainties in how observed halo (or galaxy) distributions map to their underlying mass distribution, such as cosmological measurements of neutrino masses. Code for generating our fitting formula is publicly available at http://gbpoole.github.io/Poole_2014a_code/ (Abridged), Comment: 17 Pages, 10 Figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS

We use high-resolution simulations of cosmological volumes to model galaxy formation at high-redshift, with the goal of studying the photon budget for reionization. We demonstrate that galaxy formation models that include a strong, thermally coupled supernovae scheme reproduce current observations of star formation rates and specific star formation rates, both during and after the reionization era. These models produce enough UV photons to sustain reionization at z<8 (z<6) through a significant population of faint, unobserved, galaxies for an assumed escape fraction of 20% (5%). This predicted population is consistent with extrapolation of the faint end of observed UV luminosity functions. We find that heating from a global UV/X-ray background after reionization causes a dip in the total global star formation rate density in galaxies below the current observational threshold. Finally, while the currently observed specific star formation rates are incapable of differentiating between supernovae feedback models, sufficiently deep observations will be able to use this diagnostic in the future to investigate galaxy formation at high redshift., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, 1 table. MNRAS accepted, changed to reflect published version

We introduce the Theoretical Astrophysical Observatory (TAO), an online virtual laboratory that houses mock observations of galaxy survey data. Such mocks have become an integral part of the modern analysis pipeline. However, building them requires an expert knowledge of galaxy modelling and simulation techniques, significant investment in software development, and access to high performance computing. These requirements make it difficult for a small research team or individual to quickly build a mock catalogue suited to their needs. To address this TAO offers access to multiple cosmological simulations and semi-analytic galaxy formation models from an intuitive and clean web interface. Results can be funnelled through science modules and sent to a dedicated supercomputer for further processing and manipulation. These modules include the ability to (1) construct custom observer light-cones from the simulation data cubes; (2) generate the stellar emission from star formation histories, apply dust extinction, and compute absolute and/or apparent magnitudes; and (3) produce mock images of the sky. All of TAO's features can be accessed without any programming requirements. The modular nature of TAO opens it up for further expansion in the future., Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in ApJS. The Theoretical Astrophysical Observatory (TAO) is now open to the public at https://tao.asvo.org.au/. New simulations, models and tools will be added as they become available. Contact dcroton@astro.swin.edu.au if you have data you would like to make public through TAO. Feedback and suggestions are very welcome

We introduce a simple model to self-consistently connect the growth of galaxies to the formation history of their host dark matter haloes. Our model is defined by two simple functions: the "baryonic growth function" which controls the rate at which new baryonic material is made available for star formation, and the "physics function" which controls the efficiency with which this material is converted into stars. Using simple, phenomenologically motivated forms for both functions that depend only on a single halo property, we demonstrate the model's ability to reproduce the z=0 red and blue stellar mass functions. Furthermore, by adding redshift as a second input variable to the physics function we show that the reproduction of the global stellar mass function out to z=3 is improved. We conclude by discussing the general utility of our new model, highlighting its usefulness for creating mock galaxy samples which have a number of key advantages over those generated by other techniques., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS. New accepted version contains an extended discussion, minor corrections to Table 1 and other small changes/additions. Main results and conclusions are unchanged

We investigate the ability of the Croton et al. (2006) semi-analytic model to reproduce the evolution of observed galaxies across the final 7 billion years of cosmic history. Using Monte-Carlo Markov Chain techniques we explore the available parameter space to produce a model which attempts to achieve a statistically accurate fit to the observed stellar mass function at z=0 and z~0.8, as well as the local black hole-bulge relation. We find that in order to be successful we are required to push supernova feedback efficiencies to extreme limits which are, in some cases, unjustified by current observations. This leads us to the conclusion that the current model may be incomplete. Using the posterior probability distributions provided by our fitting, as well as the qualitative details of our produced stellar mass functions, we suggest that any future model improvements must act to preferentially bolster star formation efficiency in the most massive halos at high redshift., Comment: 17 pages, 10 figures, 1 table. Correction to eqn. 10 and minor changes to text. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

Upcoming next generation galactic surveys, such as GAIA and HERMES, will deliver unprecedented detail about the structure and make-up of our Galaxy, the Milky Way, and promise to radically improve our understanding of it. However, to benefit our broader knowledge of galaxy formation and evolution we first need to quantify how typical the Galaxy is with respect to other galaxies of its type. Through modeling and comparison with a large sample of galaxies drawn from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and Galaxy Zoo, we provide tentative yet tantalizing evidence to show that both the Milky Way and nearby M31 are undergoing a critical transformation of their global properties. Both appear to possess attributes that are consistent with galaxies midway between the distinct blue and red bimodal color populations. In extragalactic surveys, such `green valley' galaxies are transition objects whose star formation typically will have all but extinguished in less than ~5 Gyrs. This finding reveals the possible future of our own galactic home, and opens a new window of opportunity to study such galactic transformations up close., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal