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Information spreading social media platforms has become ubiquitous in our lives due to viral information propagation regardless of its veracity. Some information cascades turn out to be viral since they circulated rapidly on the Internet. The uncontrollable virality of manipulated or disorientated true information (fake news) might be quite harmful, while the spread of the true news is advantageous, especially in emergencies. We tackle the problem of predicting information cascades by presenting a novel variant of SEIZ (Susceptible/ Exposed/ Infected/ Skeptics) model that outperforms the original version by taking into account the cognitive processing depth of users. We define an information cascade as the set of social media users' reactions to the original content which requires at least minimal physical and cognitive effort; therefore, we considered retweet/ reply/ quote (mention) activities and tested our framework on the Syrian White Helmets Twitter data set from April 1st, 2018 to April 30th, 2019. In the prediction of cascade pattern via traditional compartmental models, all the activities are grouped, and their summation is taken into account; however, transition rates between compartments should vary according to the activity type since their requirements of physical and cognitive efforts are not same. Based on this assumption, we design a cognition-driven SEIZ (CD-SEIZ) model in the prediction of information cascades on Twitter. We tested SIS, SEIZ, and CD-SEIZ models on 1000 Twitter cascades and found that CD-SEIZ has a significantly low fitting error and provides a statistically more accurate estimation.

At the time of this study, the SARS-CoV-2 virus that caused the COVID-19 pandemic has spread significantly across the world. Considering the uncertainty about policies, health risks, financial difficulties, etc. the online media, specially the Twitter platform, is experiencing a high volume of activity related to this pandemic. Among the hot topics, the polarized debates about unconfirmed medicines for the treatment and prevention of the disease have attracted significant attention from online media users. In this work, we present a stance data set, COVID-CQ, of user-generated content on Twitter in the context of COVID-19. We investigated more than 14 thousand tweets and manually annotated the opinions of the tweet initiators regarding the use of "chloroquine" and "hydroxychloroquine" for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19. To the best of our knowledge, COVID-CQ is the first data set of Twitter users' stances in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, and the largest Twitter data set on users' stances towards a claim, in any domain. We have made this data set available to the research community via GitHub. We expect this data set to be useful for many research purposes, including stance detection, evolution and dynamics of opinions regarding this outbreak, and changes in opinions in response to the exogenous shocks such as policy decisions and events., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures

For years, many studies employed sentiment analysis to understand the reasoning behind people's choices and feelings, their communication styles, and the communities which they belong to. We argue that gaining more in-depth insight into moral dimensions coupled with sentiment analysis can potentially provide superior results. Understanding moral foundations can yield powerful results in terms of perceiving the intended meaning of the text data, as the concept of morality provides additional information on the unobservable characteristics of information processing and non-conscious cognitive processes. Therefore, we studied latent moral loadings of Syrian White Helmets-related tweets of Twitter users from April 1st, 2018 to April 30th, 2019. For the operationalization and quantification of moral rhetoric in tweets, we use Extended Moral Foundations Dictionary in which five psychological dimensions (Harm/Care, Fairness/Reciprocity, In-group/Loyalty, Authority/Respect and Purity/Sanctity) are considered. We show that people tend to share more tweets involving the virtue moral rhetoric than the tweets involving the vice rhetoric. We observe that the pattern of the moral rhetoric of tweets among these five dimensions are very similar during different time periods, while the strength of the five dimension is time-variant. Even though there is no significant difference between the use of Fairness/Reciprocity, In-group/Loyalty or Purity/Sanctity rhetoric, the less use of Harm/Care rhetoric is significant and remarkable. Besides, the strength of the moral rhetoric and the polarization in morality across people are mostly observed in tweets involving Harm/Care rhetoric despite the number of tweets involving the Harm/Care dimension is low.

Despite the widespread use of Barabasi's scale-free networks and Erdos-Renyi networks of which degree correlation (assortativity) is neutral, numerous studies demonstrated that online social networks tend to show assortative mixing (positive degree correlation), while non-social networks show a disassortative mixing (negative degree correlation). First, we analyzed the variability in the assortativity coefficients of different groups of the same platform by using three different subreddits in Reddit. Our data analysis results showed that Reddit is disassortative, and assortativity coefficients of the aforementioned subreddits are computed as -0.0384, -0.0588 and -0.1107, respectively. Motivated by the variability in the results even in the same platform, we decided to investigate the sensitivity of dynamics of consensus formation to the assortativity of the network. We concluded that the system is more likely to reach a consensus when the network is disassortatively mixed or neutral; however, the likelihood of the consensus significantly decreases when the network is assortatively mixed. Surprisingly, the time elapsed until all nodes fix their opinions is slightly lower when the network is neutral compared to either assortative or disassortative networks. These results are more pronounced when the thresholds of agents are more heterogeneously distributed.

Online social media platforms are turning into the prime source of news and narratives about worldwide events. However,a systematic summarization-based narrative extraction that can facilitate communicating the main underlying events is lacking. To address this issue, we propose a novel event-based narrative summary extraction framework. Our proposed framework is designed as a probabilistic topic model, with categorical time distribution, followed by extractive text summarization. Our topic model identifies topics' recurrence over time with a varying time resolution. This framework not only captures the topic distributions from the data, but also approximates the user activity fluctuations over time. Furthermore, we define significance-dispersity trade-off (SDT) as a comparison measure to identify the topic with the highest lifetime attractiveness in a timestamped corpus. We evaluate our model on a large corpus of Twitter data, including more than one million tweets in the domain of the disinformation campaigns conducted against the White Helmets of Syria. Our results indicate that the proposed framework is effective in identifying topical trends, as well as extracting narrative summaries from text corpus with timestamped data., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures

With the rapid growth of online social media, people become increasingly overwhelmed by the volume and the content of the information present in the environment. The threshold model is currently one of the most common methods to capture the effect of people on others' opinions and emotions. Although many studies employ and try to improve upon the threshold model, the search for an appropriate threshold function for defining human behavior is an essential and yet unattained quest. The definition of heterogeneity in thresholds of individuals is oftentimes poorly defined, which leads to the rather simplistic use of uniform and binary functions, albeit they are far from representing the reality. In this study, we use Twitter data of size 30,704,025 tweets to mimic the adoption of a new opinion. Our results show that the threshold is not only correlated with the out-degree of nodes, which contradicts other studies but also correlated with nodes' in-degree. Therefore, we simulated two cases in which thresholds are out-degree and in-degree dependent, separately. We concluded that the system is more likely to reach a consensus when thresholds are in-degree dependent; however, the time elapsed until all nodes fix their opinions is significantly higher in this case. Additionally, we did not observe a notable effect of mean-degree on either the average opinion or the fixation time of opinions for both cases, and increasing seed size has a negative effect on reaching a consensus. Although threshold heterogeneity has a slight influence on the average opinion, the positive effect of heterogeneity on reaching a consensus is more pronounced when thresholds are in-degree dependent., Comment: 5 figures

This paper explains the design of a social network analysis framework, developed under DARPA's SocialSim program, with novel architecture that models human emotional, cognitive and social factors. Our framework is both theory and data-driven, and utilizes domain expertise. Our simulation effort helps in understanding how information flows and evolves in social media platforms. We focused on modeling three information domains: cryptocurrencies, cyber threats, and software vulnerabilities for the three interrelated social environments: GitHub, Reddit, and Twitter. We participated in the SocialSim DARPA Challenge in December 2018, in which our models were subjected to extensive performance evaluation for accuracy, generalizability, explainability, and experimental power. This paper reports the main concepts and models, utilized in our social media modeling effort in developing a multi-resolution simulation at the user, community, population, and content levels., Comment: 16 pages

Link prediction in complex networks has attracted considerable attention from interdisciplinary research communities, due to its ubiquitous applications in biological networks, social networks, transportation networks, telecommunication networks, and, recently, knowledge graphs. Numerous studies utilized link prediction approaches in order sto find missing links or predict the likelihood of future links as well as employed for reconstruction networks, recommender systems, privacy control, etc. This work presents an extensive review of state-of-art methods and algorithms proposed on this subject and categorizes them into four main categories: similarity-based methods, probabilistic methods, relational models, and learning-based methods. Additionally, a collection of network data sets has been presented in this paper, which can be used in order to study link prediction. We conclude this study with a discussion of recent developments and future research directions., Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures

Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level is known to increase customer satisfaction and profitability. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used in statistical process control (SPC) technique to monitor the quality of products and control process variability. Based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed data sets, sample mean and standard deviation statistics are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators to determine the process location and scale, respectively. On the other hand, there is not guarantee that the real-world process data would be normally distributed: outliers may exist, and/or sampled population may be contaminated. In such cases, efficiency of the conventional estimators is significantly reduced, and power of the Shewhart charts may be undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups (Phase I dataset) may drastically affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products (Phase II procedure). For more efficient analyses, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations. Consequently, it is determined that robust estimators are more efficient both against diffuse localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations, and have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods.