Search

The basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min are a good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models.

Dengue virus (DENV) is a public health challenge across the tropics and subtropics. Currently, there is no licensed prophylactic or antiviral treatment for dengue. The novel DENV inhibitor JNJ-1802 can significantly reduce viral load in mice and non-human primates. Here, using a mechanistic viral kinetic model calibrated against viral RNA data from experimental in-vitro infection studies, we assess the in-vitro inhibitory effect of JNJ-1802 by characterising infection dynamics of two DENV-2 strains in the absence and presence of different JNJ-1802 concentrations. Viral RNA suppression to below the limit of detection was achieved at concentrations of >1.6 nM, with a median concentration exhibiting 50% of maximal inhibitory effect (IC50) of 1.23x10-02 nM and 1.28x10-02 nM for the DENV-2/RL and DENV-2/16681 strains, respectively. This work provides important insight into the in-vitro inhibitory effect of JNJ-1802 and presents a first step towards a modelling framework to support characterization of viral kinetics and drug effect across different host systems., Competing Interests: I have read the journal’s policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: OG, NG, XWT, DB, OA are employees of Janssen Pharmaceutica NV and potential shareholders of Johnson & Johnson. ID received a research grant funded by Janssen to conduct this study., (Copyright: © 2023 McCormack et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Background: JNJ-4964 is a TLR7 agonist, which, via a type I interferon (IFN)-dependent mechanism, may enhance host immunity suppressed by persistent exposure to hepatitis B antigens in chronic hepatitis B., Methods: PK and PD data were pooled from 2 studies involving 90 participants ( n = 74 JNJ-4964, dose range 0.2-1.8 mg; n = 16 placebo) in a fasted state. Food effects on PK were studied in 24 participants (1.2 or 1.25 mg). A population PK model and PK/PD models were developed to characterize the effect of JNJ-4964 plasma levels on the time course of IFN-α, IFN-γ-inducible protein 10 (IP-10 or CXCL10), IFN-stimulated gene 15 ( ISG15 ), neopterin and lymphocytes following single and weekly dosing in healthy adults. Covariate effects, circadian rhythms and negative feedback were incorporated in the models., Results: A 3-compartment linear PK model with transit absorption adequately described JNJ-4964 PK. Bioavailability was 44.2% in fed state relative to fasted conditions. Indirect response models with maximum effect (E max ) stimulation on production rate constant (k in ) described IFN-α, IP-10, ISG15 and neopterin, while a precursor-dependent indirect response model with inhibitory effect described the transient lymphocyte reduction. E max , EC 50 and γ (steepness) estimates varied according to PD markers, with EC 50 displaying substantial between-subject variability. Female and Asian race exhibited lower EC 50 , suggesting higher responsiveness., Conclusions: PK/PD models well characterized the time course of immune system markers in healthy adults. Our results supported sex and race as covariates on JNJ-4964 responsiveness, as well as circadian rhythms and negative feedback as homeostatic mechanisms that are relevant in TLR7-induced type I IFN responses.

JNJ-73763989 is an N-acetylgalactosamine conjugated short interfering RNA combination product consisting of two triggers in clinical development for chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection treatment that induces a selective degradation of all HBV mRNA transcripts. Our aim is to characterize the plasma and liver pharmacokinetics (PK) of JNJ-73763989 after intravenous and subcutaneous administration in recombinant adeno-associated (rAAV) HBV infected mice. Forty-two male rAAV-HBV infected C57Bl/6 mice received JNJ-73763989 doses of 10 mg/kg i.v. or 1, 3 and 10 mg/kg s.c. Plasma and liver concentrations were analyzed simultaneously using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling with the NONMEM 7.4. A population PK model consisting of a two-compartment disposition model with transporter-mediated drug disposition, including internalization to the liver compartment, linear elimination from plasma and liver, and first-order absorption following subcutaneous administration, was suitable to describe both plasma and liver PK. After subcutaneous dosing, absolute bioavailability was complete and flip-flop kinetics were observed. JNJ-73763989 distributes from plasma to liver via transporter-mediated liver internalization in less than 24 hours, with sustained (>42 days) liver exposure. The saturation of transporter-mediated liver internalization was hypothesized to be due to asialoglycoprotein receptor saturation. Increasing the dose decreased the relative liver uptake efficiency in mice for intravenously and, to a lesser extent, subcutaneously administered JNJ-73763989. Lower dose levels administered subcutaneously in mice can maximize the proportion of the dose reaching the liver. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Pharmacokinetic modeling of JNJ-73763989 liver and plasma concentration-time data in mice indicated that the proportion of JNJ-73763989 reaching the liver may be increased by administering lower subcutaneous doses compared to higher intravenous doses. Model-based simulations can be applied to optimize the dose and regimen combination., (Copyright © 2022 by The Author(s).)

Background: JNJ-73763989 comprises two hepatitis B virus (HBV)-specific, liver-targeted N-galactosamine-conjugated short interfering RNA triggers, JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924. JNJ-73763989 pharmacokinetics, safety and tolerability were assessed in two phase 1 studies: Japanese (NCT04002752), and non-Japanese healthy participants and chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients also receiving the HBV capsid assembly modulator JNJ-56136379 and a nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) (NCT03365947)., Methods: Healthy participant cohorts were double-blind and randomized to receive a single subcutaneous JNJ-73763989 dose (non-Japanese participants, 35, 100, 200, 300 or 400 mg; Japanese participants, 25, 100 or 200 mg) or placebo. JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 plasma concentrations were assessed over 48 h. CHB patients received JNJ-73763989 200 mg every 4 weeks plus daily oral JNJ-56136379 250 mg and NA in an open-label fashion. Safety and tolerability were assessed through Day 28 (healthy participants) or Day 112 (patients)., Results: Thirty non-Japanese ( n = 4/dose; placebo, n = 10) and 24 Japanese healthy participants ( n = 6/dose; placebo, n = 6) were randomized. JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 exposure generally increased in a dose-proportional manner. Mean plasma half-life was 4-9 h. No differences between pharmacokinetic parameters were apparent between non-Japanese and Japanese healthy participants. In the 12 CHB patients, mean JNJ-73763976, JNJ-73763924 and JNJ-56136379 plasma concentrations 2 h post-dose on Day 29 were 663, 269 and 14,718 ng/mL, respectively. In both studies, all adverse events were mild/moderate., Conclusion: JNJ-73763976 and JNJ-73763924 had short plasma half-lives and exposure generally increased in a dose-proportional manner; there were no pharmacokinetic differences between Japanese and non-Japanese healthy adults. JNJ-73763989 with or without JNJ-56136379 and NA was generally safe and well tolerated.

Background: Exposure-response analyses were conducted to explore the relationship between selected efficacy and safety endpoints and serum phosphate (PO4) concentrations, a potential biomarker of efficacy and safety, in locally advanced or metastatic urothelial carcinoma patients with FGFR alterations treated with erdafitinib., Methods: Data from two dosing regimens of erdafitinib in a phase 2 study (NCT02365597), 6 and 8-mg/day with provision for pharmacodynamically guided titration per serum PO4 levels, were analyzed using Cox proportional hazard or logistic regression models. Efficacy endpoints were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR). Safety endpoints were adverse events typical for FGFR inhibitors., Results: Exposure-efficacy analyses on 156 patients (6-mg = 68; 8-mg = 88) showed that patients with higher serum PO4 levels within the first 6 weeks showed better OS (hazard ratio 0.57 [95% CI 0.46-0.72] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.01), PFS (hazard ratio 0.80 [0.67-0.94] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.01), and ORR (odds ratio 1.38 [1.02-1.86] per mg/dL of PO4; p = 0.04). Exposure-safety analyses on 177 patients (6-mg = 78; 8-mg = 99) showed that the incidence of selected adverse events associated with on-target off-tumor effects significantly rose with higher PO4., Conclusions: The exploratory relationship between serum PO4 levels and efficacy/safety outcomes supported the use of pharmacodynamically guided dose titration to optimize erdafitinib's therapeutic benefit/risk ratio., Clinical Trial Registration Number: NCT02365597., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Airborne infectious diseases such as influenza are primarily transmitted from human to human by means of social contacts, and thus easily spread within households. Epidemic models, used to gain insight into infectious disease spread and control, typically rely on the assumption of random mixing within households. Until now, there has been no direct empirical evidence to support this assumption. Here, we present the first social contact survey specifically designed to study contact networks within households. The survey was conducted in Belgium (Flanders and Brussels) from 2010 to 2011. We analysed data from 318 households totalling 1266 individuals with household sizes ranging from two to seven members. Exponential-family random graph models (ERGMs) were fitted to the within-household contact networks to reveal the processes driving contact between household members, both on weekdays and weekends. The ERGMs showed a high degree of clustering and, specifically on weekdays, decreasing connectedness with increasing household size. Furthermore, we found that the odds of a contact between older siblings and between father and child are smaller than for any other pair. The epidemic simulation results suggest that within-household contact density is the main driver of differences in epidemic spread between complete and empirical-based household contact networks. The homogeneous mixing assumption may therefore be an adequate characterization of the within-household contact structure for the purpose of epidemic simulations. However, ignoring the contact density when inferring based on an epidemic model will result in biased estimates of within-household transmission rates. Further research regarding the implementation of within-household contact networks in epidemic models is necessary.

Background: Declining incidence and spatial heterogeneity complicated the design of phase 3 Ebola vaccine trials during the tail of the 2013-16 Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in West Africa. Mathematical models can provide forecasts of expected incidence through time and can account for both vaccine efficacy in participants and effectiveness in populations. Determining expected disease incidence was critical to calculating power and determining trial sample size., Methods: In real-time, we fitted, forecasted, and simulated a proposed phase 3 cluster-randomized vaccine trial for a prime-boost EVD vaccine in three candidate regions in Sierra Leone. The aim was to forecast trial feasibility in these areas through time and guide study design planning., Results: EVD incidence was highly variable during the epidemic, especially in the declining phase. Delays in trial start date were expected to greatly reduce the ability to discern an effect, particularly as a trial with an effective vaccine would cause the epidemic to go extinct more quickly in the vaccine arm. Real-time updates of the model allowed decision-makers to determine how trial feasibility changed with time., Conclusions: This analysis was useful for vaccine trial planning because we simulated effectiveness as well as efficacy, which is possible with a dynamic transmission model. It contributed to decisions on choice of trial location and feasibility of the trial. Transmission models should be utilised as early as possible in the design process to provide mechanistic estimates of expected incidence, with which decisions about sample size, location, timing, and feasibility can be determined., (Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Starting in December 2013, West Africa was overwhelmed with the deadliest outbreak of Ebola virus known to date, resulting in more than 27,500 cases and 11,000 deaths. In response to the epidemic, development of a heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen was accelerated and involved preparation of a phase 3 effectiveness study. While individually randomized controlled trials are widely acknowledged as the gold standard for demonstrating the efficacy of a candidate vaccine, there was considerable debate on the ethical appropriateness of these designs in the context of an epidemic. A suitable phase 3 trial must convincingly ensure unbiased evaluation with sufficient statistical power. In addition, efficient evaluation of a vaccine candidate is required so that an effective vaccine can be immediately disseminated. This manuscript aims to present the statistical and modeling considerations, design rationale and challenges encountered due to the emergent, epidemic setting that led to the selection of a cluster-randomized phase 3 study design under field conditions., (© The Author(s) 2016.)

Dynamic transmission models are essential to design and evaluate control strategies for airborne infections. Our objective was to develop a dynamic transmission model for seasonal influenza allowing to evaluate the impact of vaccinating specific age groups on the incidence of infection, disease and mortality. Projections based on such models heavily rely on assumed 'input' parameter values. In previous seasonal influenza models, these parameter values were commonly chosen ad hoc, ignoring between-season variability and without formal model validation or sensitivity analyses. We propose to directly estimate the parameters by fitting the model to age-specific influenza-like illness (ILI) incidence data over multiple influenza seasons. We used a weighted least squares (WLS) criterion to assess model fit and applied our method to Belgian ILI data over six influenza seasons. After exploring parameter importance using symbolic regression, we evaluated a set of candidate models of differing complexity according to the number of season-specific parameters. The transmission parameters (average R0, seasonal amplitude and timing of the seasonal peak), waning rates and the scale factor used for WLS optimization, influenced the fit to the observed ILI incidence the most. Our results demonstrate the importance of between-season variability in influenza transmission and our estimates are in line with the classification of influenza seasons according to intensity and vaccine matching., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Biomedical studies often generate repeated measures of multiple outcomes on a set of subjects. It may be of interest to develop a biologically intuitive model for the joint evolution of these outcomes while assessing inter-subject heterogeneity. Even though it is common for biological processes to entail non-linear relationships, examples of multivariate non-linear mixed models (MNMMs) are still fairly rare. We contribute to this area by jointly analyzing the maternal antibody decay for measles, mumps, rubella, and varicella, allowing for a different non-linear decay model for each infectious disease. We present a general modeling framework to analyze multivariate non-linear longitudinal profiles subject to censoring, by combining multivariate random effects, non-linear growth and Tobit regression. We explore the hypothesis of a common infant-specific mechanism underlying maternal immunity using a pairwise correlated random-effects approach and evaluating different correlation matrix structures. The implied marginal correlation between maternal antibody levels is estimated using simulations. The mean duration of passive immunity was less than 4 months for all diseases with substantial heterogeneity between infants. The maternal antibody levels against rubella and varicella were found to be positively correlated, while little to no correlation could be inferred for the other disease pairs. For some pairs, computational issues occurred with increasing correlation matrix complexity, which underlines the importance of further developing estimation methods for MNMMs., (Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

Many human infectious diseases originate from animals or are transmitted through animal vectors. We aimed to identify factors that are predictive of ownership and touching of animals, assess whether animal ownership influences social contact behavior, and estimate the probability of a major zoonotic outbreak should a transmissible influenza-like pathogen be present in animals, all in the setting of a densely populated European country. A diary-based social contact survey (n = 1768) was conducted in Flanders, Belgium, from September 2010 until February 2011. Many participants touched pets (46%), poultry (2%) or livestock (2%) on a randomly assigned day, and a large proportion of participants owned such animals (51%, 15% and 5%, respectively). Logistic regression models indicated that larger households are more likely to own an animal and, unsurprisingly, that animal owners are more likely to touch animals. We observed a significant effect of age on animal ownership and touching. The total number of social contacts during a randomly assigned day was modeled using weighted-negative binomial regression. Apart from age, household size and day type (weekend versus weekday and regular versus holiday period), animal ownership was positively associated with the total number of social contacts during the weekend. Assuming that animal ownership and/or touching are at-risk events, we demonstrate a method to estimate the outbreak potential of zoonoses. We show that in Belgium animal-human interactions involving young children (0-9 years) and adults (25-54 years) have the highest potential to cause a major zoonotic outbreak.

The basic reproduction number R0 and the effective reproduction number R are pivotal parameters in infectious disease epidemiology, quantifying the transmission potential of an infection in a population. We estimate both parameters from 13 pre-vaccination serological data sets on varicella zoster virus (VZV) in 12 European countries and from population-based social contact surveys under the commonly made assumptions of endemic and demographic equilibrium. The fit to the serology is evaluated using the inferred effective reproduction number R as a model eligibility criterion combined with AIC as a model selection criterion. For only 2 out of 12 countries, the common choice of a constant proportionality factor is sufficient to provide a good fit to the seroprevalence data. For the other countries, an age-specific proportionality factor provides a better fit, assuming physical contacts lasting longer than 15 min are a good proxy for potential varicella transmission events. In all countries, primary infection with VZV most often occurs in early childhood, but there is substantial variation in transmission potential with R0 ranging from 2.8 in England and Wales to 7.6 in The Netherlands. Two non-parametric methods, the maximal information coefficient (MIC) and a random forest approach, are used to explain these differences in R0 in terms of relevant country-specific characteristics. Our results suggest an association with three general factors: inequality in wealth, infant vaccination coverage and child care attendance. This illustrates the need to consider fundamental differences between European countries when formulating and parameterizing infectious disease models., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: Vaccine coverage data are typically collected through vaccine registers and retrospective surveys. Alternatively, cross-sectional serosurveys enable direct estimation of vaccine coverage from antibody prevalence by exploiting correlated seropositivity for multi-antigen vaccines. Here, we extend previous methods by accounting for temporal antibody decline in estimating vaccine coverage for measles-mumps-rubella vaccine using serial serosurvey data., Methods: We introduce a Markovian cohort model of antibody waning and boosting applied to dichotomous seropositivity data for measles, mumps, and rubella. Simulation studies are used to test model identifiability and to explore bias induced by previous methods that ignore waning. The cohort model is then fitted to three Australian serosurveys, entailing estimates of vaccine coverage from routine and catch-up vaccination as well as waning rates for each antigen., Results: The simulation results show that the cohort model is identifiable and qualitatively captures the decline in seropositivity observed in older children. When fitted to all three Australian surveys, the estimated seroconversion and waning parameters are similar to estimates based on recent meta-analyses, whereas the coverage estimates appear consistent with previous Australian survey-based estimates., Discussion: We show that previous methods of estimating coverage from serological data can be improved by fitting a cohort model with waning and boosting processes to serial serosurvey data, furthermore yielding estimates of more parameters of interest such as rates of waning. In settings where serial serosurvey data is available, our method could be duplicated or applied to related questions such as coverage in routine two-dose schedules or from other combination vaccines.

Background: Few studies have quantified social mixing in remote rural areas of developing countries, where the burden of infectious diseases is usually the highest. Understanding social mixing patterns in those settings is crucial to inform the implementation of strategies for disease prevention and control. We characterized contact and social mixing patterns in rural communities of the Peruvian highlands., Methods and Findings: This cross-sectional study was nested in a large prospective household-based study of respiratory infections conducted in the province of San Marcos, Cajamarca-Peru. Members of study households were interviewed using a structured questionnaire of social contacts (conversation or physical interaction) experienced during the last 24 hours. We identified 9015 reported contacts from 588 study household members. The median age of respondents was 17 years (interquartile range [IQR] 4-34 years). The median number of reported contacts was 12 (IQR 8-20) whereas the median number of physical (i.e. skin-to-skin) contacts was 8.5 (IQR 5-14). Study participants had contacts mostly with people of similar age, and with their offspring or parents. The number of reported contacts was mainly determined by the participants' age, household size and occupation. School-aged children had more contacts than other age groups. Within-household reciprocity of contacts reporting declined with household size (range 70%-100%). Ninety percent of household contact networks were complete, and furthermore, household members' contacts with non-household members showed significant overlap (range 33%-86%), indicating a high degree of contact clustering. A two-level mixing epidemic model was simulated to compare within-household mixing based on observed contact networks and within-household random mixing. No differences in the size or duration of the simulated epidemics were revealed., Conclusion: This study of rural low-density communities in the highlands of Peru suggests contact patterns are highly assortative. Study findings support the use of within-household homogenous mixing assumptions for epidemic modeling in this setting.

Despite long-standing two-dose measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination, measles outbreaks still occur in highly vaccinated European populations. For instance, large measles outbreaks occurred in France (2008–13), the United Kingdom (2012–13) and the Netherlands (2012). Based on a multicohort model approach, using spatial serological survey data, MMR vaccination coverage data and data on social contacts, we found effective reproduction numbers significantly higher than 1 for measles in Belgium. This indicates that at one of the expected re-introductions, a measles outbreak is likely to spread, especially when it occurs during school term. The predicted average effective reproduction number increased over a 30-year time span from 1.3 to 2.2 and from 1.9 to 3.2 for basic reproduction numbers of 12 and 18, respectively. The expected relative measles incidence was highest in infants under one year of age, in adolescents and young adults. In conclusion, gradually increasing proportions of susceptible adolescents and young adults provide through their highly active social life an avenue for measles to resurge in large outbreaks upon re-introduction in Belgium, especially during school terms. Infants form an important vulnerable group during future measles outbreaks.

Unlabelled: The duration of the presence of maternal mumps antibodies in a prospective cohort study is presented. Immunoglobulin G against mumps was portioned with a commercial ELISA test (Euroimmun® anti-mumps Virus AT ELISA, Germany) on samples from 213 mother-child pairs at seven time points between pregnancy and 12 months of age. Non-linear mixed models were used to model maternal antibody decay in infants. The model-based median time to loss of antibodies was 3.6 months. The median child-specific time to loss of antibodies in children of naturally immune women (3.8 months) and children of vaccinated women (2.4 months) differed significantly (p = 0.025). The log antibody level of the mother and the log birth weight were correlated with the duration of maternal antibodies in infants (p < 0.0001)., Conclusion: Children of vaccinated women loose maternal mumps antibodies significantly earlier in life compared to children of naturally infected women. If early administration (<12 months) of the combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine is needed, maternal mumps antibodies are not expected to interfere with infant humoral vaccine responses.

The effectiveness of childhood immunization programs depends on the vaccination coverage actually achieved. Routinely collected coverage data are not always available, and comparability between countries is often compromised because of different data collection methods. In 2000, Gay developed a method to estimate trivalent vaccination coverage from readily available trivariate serological data on the basis of parametric assumptions related to the rate of seroconversion for each vaccine component and probabilities of natural exposure to infection. Gay's work was indirectly published in a paper by Altmann and Altmann, who derived exact solutions for the parameters on the basis of Gay's modeling equations. In this paper, we propose a general likelihood-based marginal model framework to extend Gay's model by relaxing two of its main assumptions. We use the Bahadur model for trivariate binary data to explicitly account for an association between the disease-specific exposure probabilities. We fit several correlation structures to measles, mumps, and rubella serology from Belgium and Ireland. For both countries, we estimate a small positive pairwise exposure correlation, which improves the fit to the data. However, the effect on the estimated vaccination coverage and its associated variability is fairly moderate. For both Belgium and Ireland, all models reveal that the vaccination coverage achieved during the first 15 years since the introduction of measles, mumps, and rubella immunization is insufficient to eliminate measles., (Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)

After a steep monotone rise with age, the seroprevalence profiles for human parvovirus B19 (PVB19) display a decrease or plateau between the ages of 20 and 40, in each of 5 European countries. We investigate whether this phenomenon is induced by waning antibodies for PVB19 and, if this is the case, whether secondary infections are plausible, or whether boosting may occur. Several immunological scenarios are tested for PVB19 by fitting different compartmental dynamic transmission models to serological data using data on social contact patterns. The social contact approach has already been shown informative to estimate transmission rates and the basic reproduction number for infections transmitted predominantly through nonsexual social contacts. Our results show that for 4 countries, model selection criteria favor the scenarios allowing for waning immunity at an age-specific rate over the assumption of lifelong immunity, assuming that the transmission rates are directly proportional to the contact rates. Different views on the evolution of the immune response to PVB19 infection lead to altered estimates of the age-specific force of infection and the basic reproduction number. The scenarios which allow for multiple infections during one lifetime predict a higher frequency of PVB19 infection in pregnant women and of associated fetal deaths. When prevaccination serological data are available, the framework developed in this paper could prove worthwhile to investigate these different scenarios for other infections as well, such as cytomegalovirus.

Background: Mathematical modelling of infectious disease is increasingly used to help guide public health policy. As directly transmitted infections, such as influenza and tuberculosis, require contact between individuals, knowledge about contact patterns is a necessary pre-requisite of accurate model predictions. Of particular interest is the potential impact of school closure as a means of controlling pandemic influenza (and potentially other pathogens)., Methods: This paper uses a population-based prospective survey of mixing patterns in eight European countries to study the relative change in the basic reproduction number (R0--the average number of secondary cases from a typical primary case in a fully susceptible population) on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The relative change in R0 during holiday periods and weekends gives an indication of the impact collective school closures (and prophylactic absenteeism) may have during a pandemic., Results: Social contact patterns differ substantially when comparing weekdays to the weekend and regular to holiday periods mainly due to the reduction in work and/or school contacts. For most countries the basic reproduction number decreases from the week to weekends and regular to holiday periods by about 21% and 17%, respectively. However for other countries no significant decrease was observed., Conclusion: We use a large-scale social contact survey in eight different European countries to gain insights in the relative change in the basic reproduction number on weekdays versus weekends and during regular versus holiday periods. The resulting estimates indicate that school closure can have a substantial impact on the spread of a newly emerging infectious disease that is transmitted via close (non sexual) contacts.

With the aim to improve dynamic models for infections transmitted predominantly through non-sexual social contacts, we compared three popular model estimation methods in how well they fitted seroprevalence data and produced estimates for the basic reproduction number R(0) and the effective vaccination level required for elimination of varicella. For two of these methods, interactions between age groups were parameterized using empirical social contact data whereas for the third method we used the current standard approach of imposing a simplifying structure on the 'Who Acquires Infection From Whom' (WAIFW) matrix. The first method was based on solving a set of differential equations to obtain an equilibrium value of the proportion of susceptibles. The second method was based on finding a solution for the age-specific force of infection using the formula of the mass action principle by means of iteration. Both solutions were contrasted with observed age-specific seroprevalence data. The best fit of the WAIFW matrix was obtained with contacts involving touching, and lasting longer than 15min per day. Plausible values for R(0) for varicella in Belgium ranged from 7.66 to 13.44. Both approaches based on empirical social contact data provided a better fit to seroprevalence data than the current standard approach.

Background: Until recently, mathematical models of person to person infectious diseases transmission had to make assumptions on transmissions enabled by personal contacts by estimating the so-called WAIFW-matrix. In order to better inform such estimates, a population based contact survey has been carried out in Belgium over the period March-May 2006. In contrast to other European surveys conducted simultaneously, each respondent recorded contacts over two days. Special attention was given to holiday periods, and respondents with large numbers of professional contacts., Methods: Participants kept a paper diary with information on their contacts over two different days. A contact was defined as a two-way conversation of at least three words in each others proximity. The contact information included the age of the contact, gender, location, duration, frequency, and whether or not touching was involved. For data analysis, we used association rules and classification trees. Weighted generalized estimating equations were used to analyze contact frequency while accounting for the correlation between contacts reported on the two different days. A contact surface, expressing the average number of contacts between persons of different ages was obtained by a bivariate smoothing approach and the relation to the so-called next-generation matrix was established., Results: People mostly mixed with people of similar age, or with their offspring, their parents and their grandparents. By imputing professional contacts, the average number of daily contacts increased from 11.84 to 15.70. The number of reported contacts depended heavily on the household size, class size for children and number of professional contacts for adults. Adults living with children had on average 2 daily contacts more than adults living without children. In the holiday period, the daily contact frequency for children and adolescents decreased with about 19% while a similar observation is made for adults in the weekend. These findings can be used to estimate the impact of school closure., Conclusion: We conducted a diary based contact survey in Belgium to gain insights in social interactions relevant to the spread of infectious diseases. The resulting contact patterns are useful to improve estimating crucial parameters for infectious disease transmission models.