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186 results on '"NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)"'

1. Remote sensing of droplet number concentration in warm clouds: A review of the current state of knowledge and perspectives

Author: Hartwig Deneke, Graham Feingold, Kenneth Sinclair, Paquita Zuidema, Brian Cairns, J. Christine Chiu, Frank Werner, Manfred Wendisch, Andrew S. Ackerman, Daniel T. McCoy, Bastiaan van Diedenhoven, Ralf Bennartz, R. Boers, John Rausch, Ann M. Fridlind, Mikhail D. Alexandrov, Philip Stier, Herman Russchenberg, Robert Wood, Anja Hünerbein, Daniel Rosenfeld, Daniel P. Grosvenor, Pavlos Kollias, David Painemal, Alexander Marshak, Odran Sourdeval, Michael S. Diamond, Daniel Merk, Zhibo Zhang, Patric Seifert, Christine Knist, Matthew Christensen, Johannes Quaas, Université de Lille, CNRS, University of Leeds, Leipziger Institut für Meteorologie [LIM], Laboratoire d'Optique Atmosphérique (LOA) - UMR 8518, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science [RSMAS], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies [GISS], Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics [New York], Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Nashville], Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] [SSEC], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute [KNMI], Colorado State University [Fort Collins] [CSU], Department of Physics [Oxford], CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory [RAL], Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research [TROPOS], University of Washington [Seattle], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory [ESRL], Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] [DWD], Stony Brook University [SUNY] [SBU], NASA Goddard Space Flight Center [GSFC], NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] [LaRC], The Hebrew University of Jerusalem [HUJ], Delft University of Technology [TU Delft], Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering [New York], Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] [CCSR], Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology [Baltimore] [JCET], Department of Physics [Baltimore], Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Leipziger Institut für Meteorologie (LIM), Universität Leipzig, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Columbia University [New York], Space Science and Engineering Center [Madison] (SSEC), University of Wisconsin-Madison, Vanderbilt University [Nashville], Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), CCLRC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), University of Oxford, Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research (TROPOS), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Deutscher Wetterdienst [Offenbach] (DWD), Stony Brook University [SUNY] (SBU), State University of New York (SUNY), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), The Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HUJ), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Joint Center for Earth Systems Technology [Baltimore] (JCET), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), European Project: 306284,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2012-StG_20111012,QUAERERE(2012), European Project: 724602,Recap, and European Project: 641727,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,PRIMAVERA(2015)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, satellite, Cloud computing, Atmospheric Composition and Structure, Review Article, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, law.invention, Remote Sensing, Quality (physics), law, Cloud/Radiation Interaction, Instruments and Techniques, Radar, Review Articles, lidar, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Remote sensing, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, passive retrievals, Effective radius, business.industry, Remote Sensing and Disasters, Cloud physics, Radiative forcing, cloud droplet concentrations, Geophysics, Lidar, 13. Climate action, Atmospheric Processes, Cloud Physics and Chemistry, Environmental science, Satellite, business, Clouds and Aerosols, Natural Hazards, radar
Abstract: The cloud droplet number concentration (N d) is of central interest to improve the understanding of cloud physics and for quantifying the effective radiative forcing by aerosol‐cloud interactions. Current standard satellite retrievals do not operationally provide N d, but it can be inferred from retrievals of cloud optical depth (τ c) cloud droplet effective radius (r e) and cloud top temperature. This review summarizes issues with this approach and quantifies uncertainties. A total relative uncertainty of 78% is inferred for pixel‐level retrievals for relatively homogeneous, optically thick and unobscured stratiform clouds with favorable viewing geometry. The uncertainty is even greater if these conditions are not met. For averages over 1° ×1° regions the uncertainty is reduced to 54% assuming random errors for instrument uncertainties. In contrast, the few evaluation studies against reference in situ observations suggest much better accuracy with little variability in the bias. More such studies are required for a better error characterization. N d uncertainty is dominated by errors in r e, and therefore, improvements in r e retrievals would greatly improve the quality of the N d retrievals. Recommendations are made for how this might be achieved. Some existing N d data sets are compared and discussed, and best practices for the use of N d data from current passive instruments (e.g., filtering criteria) are recommended. Emerging alternative N d estimates are also considered. First, new ideas to use additional information from existing and upcoming spaceborne instruments are discussed, and second, approaches using high‐quality ground‐based observations are examined., Key Points Satellite cloud droplet concentration uncertainties of 78% for pixel‐level retrievals and 54% for 1 by 1 degree retrievals are estimatedThe effective radius retrieval is the most important aspect for improvement, and more in situ evaluation is neededPotential improvements using passive and active satellite, and ground‐based instruments are discussed
Published: 2018
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2. Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions

Author: Hansen , James, Sato , Makiko, Kharecha , Pushker, Von Schuckmann , Karina, Beerling , David J., Cao , Junji, Marcott , Shaun, Masson-Delmotte , Valerie, prather , Michael J., Rohling , Eelco J., Shakun , Jeremy, Smith , Pete, Lacis , Andrew, Russell , Gary, Ruedy , Reto, Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University [New York], Mercator Océan, Société Civile CNRS Ifremer IRD Météo-France SHOM, Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER), Department of Animal and Plant Sciences, University of Sheffield [Sheffield], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences [Aberdeen], University of Aberdeen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [New York], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California, Columbia University Earth Institute, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of California [Irvine] ( UCI ), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] ( NOC ), University of Southampton [Southampton], Department Earth Science & Engineering, Imperial College London, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), and Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Columbia] ( EESC )
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Climate Action, Life on Land, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, physics.ao-ph, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Oceanography, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Atmospheric Sciences
Abstract: International audience; Global temperature is a fundamental climate metric highly correlated with sea level, which implies that keeping shorelines near their present location requires keeping global temperature within or close to its preindustrial Holocene range. However, global temperature excluding short-term variability now exceeds +1 °C relative to the 1880–1920 mean and annual 2016 global temperature was almost +1.3 °C. We show that global temperature has risen well out of the Holocene range and Earth is now as warm as it was during the prior (Eemian) interglacial period, when sea level reached 6–9 m higher than today. Further, Earth is out of energy balance with present atmospheric composition, implying that more warming is in the pipeline, and we show that the growth rate of greenhouse gas climate forcing has accelerated markedly in the past decade. The rapidity of ice sheet and sea level response to global temperature is difficult to predict, but is dependent on the magnitude of warming. Targets for limiting global warming thus, at minimum, should aim to avoid leaving global temperature at Eemian or higher levels for centuries. Such targets now require "negative emissions", i.e., extraction of CO2 from the air. If phasedown of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, improved agricultural and forestry practices, including reforestation and steps to improve soil fertility and increase its carbon content, may provide much of the necessary CO2extraction. In that case, the magnitude and duration of global temperature excursion above the natural range of the current interglacial (Holocene) could be limited and irreversible climate impacts could be minimized. In contrast, continued high fossil fuel emissions today place a burden on young people to undertake massive technological CO2 extraction if they are to limit climate change and its consequences. Proposed methods of extraction such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or air capture of CO2 have minimal estimated costs of USD 89–535 trillion this century and also have large risks and uncertain feasibility. Continued high fossil fuel emissions unarguably sentences young people to either a massive, implausible cleanup or growing deleterious climate impacts or both.
Published: 2017
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3. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Author: Alex C. Ruane, Peter J. Thorburn, Mikhail A. Semenov, Joost Wolf, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Gerard W. Wall, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Matthew P. Reynolds, Eckart Priesack, Jørgen E. Olesen, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Jordi Doltra, Iurii Shcherbak, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Jeffrey W. White, Leilei Liu, L. A. Hunt, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Yan Zhu, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Daniel Wallach, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Mohamed Jabloun, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Pierre Martre, Sebastian Gayler, Garry O'Leary, Zhimin Wang, Jakarat Anothai, Elias Fereres, Claas Nendel, Bruno Basso, Thilo Streck, Curtis D. Jones, Andrea Maiorano, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Taru Palosuo, Iwan Supit, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), CSIRO, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Southwest University, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Dep. Agronomia, University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricutural University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Economic Development, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (DEDJTR), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Agriculture and Food, Universidad de La Rioja (UR), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, China Agricultural University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), China Agricultural University (CAU), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Leeds, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), AgWeatherNet Program, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Landscape and Water Sciences, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Michigan State University, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology ( BIOP ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, European Food Safety Authority, Spanish National Research Council ( CSIC ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ( DEDJTR ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Universidad de La Rioja ( UR ), University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Water en Voedsel, Growing season, Climate change, klim, Plant Science, Agricultural engineering, Models, Biological, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, Life Science, Computer Simulation, Productivity, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, business.industry, Crop yield, Temperature, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Climate Resilience, Agronomy, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections., E.W. acknowledges support from the CSIRO project ‘Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions’ and the project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ jointly funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Z.Z. received a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO and the Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program. P.M., A.M. and D.R. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). A.M. received the support of the EU in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement No. PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196. S.A. and D.C. acknowledge support provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905 L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and PD.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O'L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. B.B. was funded by USDA-NIFA Grant No: 2015-68007-23133.
Published: 2017
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4. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Author: Frank Ewert, Jakarat Anothai, P. V. Vara Prasad, Davide Cammarano, Curtis D. Jones, Elias Fereres, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Soora Naresh Kumar, Eckart Priesack, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Alex C. Ruane, Christian Folberth, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Fulu Tao, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Mohamed Jabloun, Jordi Doltra, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Bing Liu, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, Senthold Asseng, Pierre Stratonovitch, Peter J. Thorburn, Claas Nendel, Taru Palosuo, Joost Wolf, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Thilo Streck, Jørgen E. Olesen, David B. Lobell, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Delphine Deryng, L. A. Hunt, Garry O'Leary, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, James W. Jones, Elke Stehfest, Mikhail A. Semenov, Christian Biernath, Claudio O. Stöckle, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Matthew P. Reynolds, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Erwin Schmid, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Sebastian Gayler, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Gerard W. Wall, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Computation Institute, Loyola University of Chicago, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University [Mississippi], Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University (PSU), Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon [Eugene], W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] (IBOE), Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Natural resources institute Finland, Institute of Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham], University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Center for Development Research (ZEF), Environmental Impacts Group, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS, WSG and CALM, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, China Agricultural University (CAU), National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616, 31611130182, 41571088 and 31561143003), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), China Scholarship Council., IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Stanford University [Stanford], Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Prince of Songkla University, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), China Agricultural University, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Florida, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape Biogeochemistry, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research ( CGIAR ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] ( IBOE ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ( IIASA ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung ( IMK-IFU ), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), Bonn Universität [Bonn], University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [ SDV.BV ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, régression statistique, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, impact sur le rendement, klim, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, incertitude, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Regression analysis, statistical regression, simulation, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, sécurité alimentaire, Plant Production Systems, modèle de récolte, Yield (finance), comparaison de modèles, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Earth System Science, blé, température, Life Science, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, réchauffement climatique, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hydrology, WIMEK, Global temperature, business.industry, Crop yield, Global warming, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Climate model, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Published: 2016
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5. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

Author: Carlos Angulo, Frank Ewert, Tom M. Osborne, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Senthold Asseng, Pasquale Steduto, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Eckart Priesack, Patrick Bertuzzi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Dominique Ripoche, Thilo Streck, Joost Wolf, Pierre Stratonovitch, Alex C. Ruane, Richard Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Taru Palosuo, Iurii Shcherbak, Kenneth J. Boote, Christian Biernath, Garry O'Leary, J. Hooker, Peter J. Thorburn, Joachim Ingwersen, Soora Naresh Kumar, Lee Heng, Maria I. Travasso, Pierre Martre, Katharina Waha, Nicholas I. Hudson, Claas Nendel, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Andrew J. Challinor, Jørgen E. Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Davide Camarrano, L. A. Hunt, Sebastian Gayler, Nadine Brisson, Daniel Wallach, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Iwan Supit, Jordi Doltra, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], The James Hutton Institute, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, International Water Management Institute, Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Environmental Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar], Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Plant Production Systems, Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR), JPI FACCE, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Department of Geological Sciences and Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), University of Maryland, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Institute for Climate and Water, and Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Temperature sensitivity, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Precipitation, 01 natural sciences, modèle de croissance, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, climate impacts, 2. Zero hunger, Multi-model ensemble, changement climatique, Ecological Modeling, Temperature, Uncertainty, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, PE&RC, Plant Production Systems, Climatology, PRECIPITATION, Climate impacts, Environmental Engineering, interannual variability, Yield (finance), australie, variation interannuelle, Growing season, Climate change, multi-model ensemble, Earth System Science, Interannual variability, blé, température, pays bas, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, précipitation, business.industry, argentine, Simulation modeling, temperature, Global change, 15. Life on land, inde, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, AgMIP, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Crop modeling, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, Software
Abstract: We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2???0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts. Compares interannual climate response of 27 wheat models at four locations.Calculates the diminishing return of constructing multi-model ensembles for assessment.Identifies similarities and major differences of model responses.Differentiates between interannual temperature sensitivity and climate change response.
Published: 2016
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6. Applications of Electrified Dust and Dust Devil Electrodynamics to Martian Atmospheric Electricity

Author: Jean-Jacques Berthelier, Nilton O. Renno, William M. Farrell, M. Zimmerman, Erika Barth, Francesca Esposito, Cauê S. Borlina, Franck Montmessin, Grégoire Déprez, Jonathan Merrison, Keri Nicoll, R. G. Harrison, Isobel M P Houghton, Karen Aplin, Sachchida Nand Tripathi, Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading ( UOR ), Southwest Research Institute [Boulder] ( SwRI ), INAF - Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte ( OAC ), Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica ( INAF ), Department of Physics and Astronomy [Aarhus], Aarhus University [Aarhus], IMPEC - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales ( LATMOS ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 ( UPMC ) -Institut national des sciences de l'Univers ( INSU - CNRS ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] ( AOPP ), University of Oxford [Oxford], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences [Ann Arbor] ( AOSS ), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim] ( NTNU ), Johns Hopkins University ( JHU ), UK’s Natural Environment Research Council (NE/L011514/1), University of Reading (UOR), Southwest Research Institute [Boulder] (SwRI), INAF - Osservatorio Astronomico di Capodimonte (OAC), Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), PLANETO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Space Sciences [Ann Arbor] (AOSS), University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Norwegian University of Science and Technology [Trondheim] (NTNU), Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU), Johns Hopkins University (JHU), and University of Oxford
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Particle electrification, OXIDANT ENHANCEMENT, [SDU.ASTR.EP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Earth and Planetary Astrophysics [astro-ph.EP], WIND-BLOWN SAND, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, GRANULAR INSULATOR SYSTEMS, SOLAR-SYSTEM, Atmosphere, Interplanetary dust cloud, Martian surface, 0103 physical sciences, 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, Dust devil, Lightning discharge, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Physics, Martian, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, FIELD METER, ION MEASUREMENTS, Global circuit, MARS, Hygroelectricity, Astronomy and Astrophysics, Atmosphere of Mars, ELECTROSTATIC DISCHARGES, [ SDU.ASTR.EP ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Earth and Planetary Astrophysics [astro-ph.EP], PARTICLE-SIZE, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, CONTACT ELECTRIFICATION, Atmospheric electricity, Planetary electrostatics
Abstract: International audience; Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kV m−1 to 100 kV m−1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m−1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)—MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ electrical measurements.
Published: 2016
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7. New insights on the 7Be cycle in the ocean

Author: M. Grenier, P. van Beek, P. Lerner, V. Sanial, M. Souhaut, Marion Lagarde, O. Marchal, J.L. Reyss, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Institut méditerranéen d'océanologie (MIO), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Toulon (UTLN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Océan et Interfaces (OCEANIS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Aquatic Science, Oceanography
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2023
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8. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

Author: Pierre Martre, Bruno Basso, James W. Jones, Jordi Doltra, Garry O'Leary, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Christian Biernath, Jeffrey W. White, Sebastian Gayler, R. Goldberg, Eckart Priesack, Robert F. Grant, Nadine Brisson, Patrick Bertuzzi, Thilo Streck, Daniel Wallach, Joachim Ingwersen, Davide Cammarano, J. Hooker, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Carlos Angulo, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Jørgen E. Olesen, Lee Heng, Maria I. Travasso, Iurii Shcherbak, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Tom M. Osborne, L. A. Hunt, Alex C. Ruane, Frank Ewert, Kenneth J. Boote, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Iwan Supit, Jerry L. Hatfield, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pasquale Steduto, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Dominique Ripoche, Peter J. Thorburn, Pierre Stratonovitch, Joost Wolf, Katharina Waha, Taru Palosuo, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on ClimateChange, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, Department of Geological Sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Stuttgart, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Primary Industries, Landscape & Water Sciences, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Institute of Soil Ecology German Research Center for Environmental Health, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Washington State University (WSU), University of Hohenheim, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), CIRN, Institute forClimate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Kellogg Biological Station, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), University of Alberta [Edmonton], International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
Subjects: Calibration (statistics), Climate, Statistics, process-based model, grain, uncertainty, Triticum, General Environmental Science, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Mathematical model, Estimator, PE&RC, simulation, ecophysiological model, Europe, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, model intercomparison, Plant Production Systems, Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), climate-change, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, impact, Seasons, simulations, europe, ensemble modeling, Climate Change, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, australia, crop production, Environment, Models, Biological, Consistency (statistics), Approximation error, Environmental Chemistry, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, impacts, Hydrology, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Ensemble forecasting, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Soil Science Centre, Australia, yield, calibration, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, biodiversity conservation, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Environmental Sciences, billion
Abstract: Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
Published: 2015
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9. Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate change effects

Author: David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J. Challinor, Sjakk J. G. Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L. Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L. A. Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E. E. Jongschaap, James W. Jones, Armen R. Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S. Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O'Leary, Jorgen E. Olesen, Tom M. Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V. Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C. Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A. Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I. Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W. White, Jimmy R. Williams, Joost Wolf, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Centre for Geo-Information, University of Leeds, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), University of East Anglia, Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), University of Tübingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), University of Reading (UOR), University of Guelph, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), University of Washington, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Landscape and Water Sciences, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Agrifood Research Finland, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Rothamsted Research, FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Washington State University (WSU), Plant & Food Research, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Institute for Climate and Water, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Hillel, D., Rosenzweig, C., Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Université Clermont Auvergne ( UCA ), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) ( UBP ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center ( CIFA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska Lincoln ( UNL ), International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Aarhus University, PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University of Florida [Gainesville], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales - Clermont Auvergne (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) (UBP), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: analyse de données, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), data analysis, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, statistical analysis, Effects of global warming, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, WIMEK, Mathematical model, analyse statistique, Crop yield, Soil Science Centre, Global change, Statistical model, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, Climate resilience, Climate Resilience, Plant Production Systems, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science
Abstract: Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.
Published: 2015
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10. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

Author: Joost Wolf, Xinyou Yin, Pierre Martre, Zhengtao Zhang, H. K. Soo, Manuel Marcaida, Nadine Brisson, Patrick Bertuzzi, Soo-Hyung Kim, Yan Zhu, Roberto C. Izaurralde, L. A. Hunt, Maria I. Travasso, Christian Baron, James W. Jones, R.E.E. Jongschaap, T. Palosuo, Daniel Wallach, Jerry L. Hatfield, Christian Biernath, G. De Sanctis, Senthold Asseng, H. Yoshida, Donald S. Gaydon, Edmar Teixeira, Davide Cammarano, Alex C. Ruane, C. Nendel, T. Hasegawa, Thilo Streck, Garry O'Leary, Upendra Singh, Frank Ewert, Delphine Deryng, R. Goldberg, Bas A. M. Bouman, Peter J. Thorburn, Tao Li, Roberto Confalonieri, Myriam Adam, Jes Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Tamon Fumoto, Patricio Grassini, Joachim Ingwersen, Robert F. Grant, Katharina Waha, James Williams, Fulu Tao, Eckart Priesack, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Liang Tang, Sebastian Gayler, Jordi Doltra, L. Heng, Christoph Müller, J.G. Conijn, Iwan Supit, S. Naresh Kumar, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, David Makowski, Federico Sau, Jean-Louis Durand, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Marc Corbeels, Steven Hoek, Simone Bregaglio, Hiroshi Nakagawa, Philippe Oriol, Anthony Challinor, R. A. Kemanian, Carlos Angulo, Pasquale Steduto, Bruno Basso, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Dennis Timlin, J. Hooker, Samuel Buis, Maria Virginia Pravia, Françoise Ruget, Dominique Ripoche, Simona Bassu, Pierre Stratonovitch, Jon I. Lizaso, Balwinder Singh, Tom M. Osborne, Paul W. Wilkens, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), International Rice Research Institute [Philippines] (IRRI), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), International Water Management Institute, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, CGIAR, Institute of Crops Science and Resource Conservation INRES, Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Geological Sciences [East Lansing], Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecololgy, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Center for Geo-information, Alterra, Department of Agronomy, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Cassandra Lab, University of Milan, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), The James Hutton Institute, CGIAR ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Embrapa Cerrados, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Tsukuba, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Agriculture Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), WESS Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Departement of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Centre for Geo-Information, Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Institute of Landscape System Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Department Produccion Vegetal, Fitotecnia, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Walker Institute, NCAS Climate, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Department of Plant Science, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System-Penn State System, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecology, Department Biologia Vegetal, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Department of Geological Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Science, University of Washington [Seattle], FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Sustainable Production, Plant & Food Research, ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture, CIRN, Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agriculture, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Texas A&M University System, Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Metaprogramme ACCAF, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, International Rice Research Institute, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (Cirad-Persyst-UPR 115 AIDA), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Beijing Normal University, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales ( UMR AGAP ), Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale ( UMR TETIS ), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ) -AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), Department of Geological Sciences, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes ( EMMAH ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Invergowrie, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Agro-ecologyand Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska-Lincoln, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial (AGIR), Agro-ecology and Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Geological Sciences, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre ( CIMMYT ), International Fertilizer Development Center ( IFDC ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, and Texas A and M University ( TAMU )
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, F62 - Physiologie végétale - Croissance et développement, 01 natural sciences, Statistics, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Climate change, Crop model, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Triticum, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Mathematical model, Air, Forestry, Regression analysis, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Rendement des cultures, Plant Production Systems, Statistical model, Modèle mathématique, Atmosphère, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Yield, Crop Physiology, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Oryza sativa, Zea mays, Earth System Science, Emulator, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, Precipitation, Croissance, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Meta-model, Changement climatique, Hydrology, Modélisation des cultures, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Soil Science Centre, 15. Life on land, Température, Laboratorium voor Phytopathologie, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Klimaatbestendigheid, Yield (chemistry), Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Laboratory of Phytopathology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Plante de culture, Agronomy and Crop Science, Dioxyde de carbone
Abstract: Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Such datasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and to interpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without rerunning the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to these datasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature. Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effect of a temperature increase of +2 degrees C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2] increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulating climate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Published: 2015
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11. Evidence of impact of aviation on cirrus cloud formation

Author: Kostas Eleftheratos, George Tselioudis, Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Balis, Charikleia Meleti, Christos Zerefos, Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment [Athens] (LACAE), National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology [Athens], Academy of Athens, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), EGU, Publication, Laboratory of Climatology & Atmospheric Environment, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC )
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Cloud cover, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Spatial distribution, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 010305 fluids & plasmas, Latitude, lcsh:Chemistry, 0103 physical sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Microphysics, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, lcsh:QC1-999, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Middle latitudes, Climatology, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, Environmental science, Cirrus, Tropopause, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: This work examines changes in cirrus cloud cover (CCC) in possible association with aviation activities at congested air corridors. The analysis is based on the latest version of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project D2 data set and covers the period 1984-1998. Over the studied areas, the effect of large-scale modes of natural climate variability such as ENSO, QBO and NAO as well as the possible influence of the tropopause variability, were first removed from the cloud data set in order to calculate long-term changes of observed cirrus cloudiness. The results show increasing trends in (CCC) between 1984 and 1998 over the high air traffic corridors of North America, North Atlantic and Europe. Of these upward trends, only in the summertime over the North Atlantic and only in the wintertime over North America are statistically significant (exceeding +2.0% per decade). Over adjacent locations with low air traffic, the calculated trends are statistically insignificant and in most cases negative both during winter and summer in the regions studied. These negative trends, over low air traffic regions, are consistent with the observed large scale negative trends seen in (CCC) over most of the northern middle latitudes and over the tropics. Moreover, further investigation of vertical velocities over high and low air traffic regions provide evidence that the trends of opposite signs in (CCC) over these regions, do not seem to be caused by different trends in dynamics. It is also shown that the longitudinal distribution of decadal changes in (CCC) along the latitude belt centered at the North Atlantic air corridor, parallels the spatial distribution of fuel consumption from highflying air traffic, providing an independent test of possible impact of aviation on contrail cirrus formation. The correlation between the fuel consumption and the longitudinal variability of (CCC) is significant (+0.7) over the middle latitudes but not over the tropics. This could be explained by the fact that over the tropics the variability of (CCC) is dominated by dynamics while at middle latitudes microphysics explain most of its variability. Results from this study are compared with other studies and for different periods of records and it appears that there exists general agreement as to the evidence of a possible aviation effect on high cloud positive trends over regions with congested air traffic.
Published: 2003
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12. How do various maize crop models vary in their responses to climate change factors?

Author: Federico Sau, Sjaak Conijn, Delphine Deryng, Jean-Louis Durand, Katharina Waha, Edmar Teixeira, Iurii Shcherbak, R.E.E. Jongschaap, James W. Jones, Kenneth J. Boote, Maria Virginia Pravia, Jerry L. Hatfield, Alex C. Ruane, Christian Biernath, Patricio Grassini, H.L. Boogaard, Steven Hoek, K. Christian Kersebaum, Fulu Tao, Christian Baron, David Makowski, Claas Nendel, Sebastian Gayler, Dennis Timlin, Marc Corbeels, Christoph Müller, Nadine Brisson, Jon I. Lizaso, Naresh S. Kumar, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Simona Bassu, Armen R. Kemanian, Cesar Izaurralde, Bruno Basso, Giacomo De Sanctis, Myriam Adam, Soo-Hyung Kim, Eckart Priesack, Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of agronomy, University of Florida [Gainesville], Department Produccion vegetal, Fitotecnia, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Department of agricultural and biological engineering, GISS Climate impacts group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of geological sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department crop systems, forestry and environmental sciences, University of Basilicata, Centre for Geo-Information, ALTERRA, WUR-Plant research international, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (Cirad-Persyst-UPR 115 AIDA), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Water and earth system science [Tübingen] (WESS), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of agronomy and horticulture, University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System, Department of plant science, University of Pensylvania, Institute of Lanscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), School of environmental and forest sciences, University of Washington [Seattle], Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of landscape systems analysis, Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ) -NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales ( UMR AGAP ), Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale ( UMR TETIS ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Annual cropping systems, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, Tyndall Centre for climate change research and school of environmental sciences, University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Water and earth system science (WESS) competence cluster, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), and Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, nitrogen dynamics, Atmospheric sciences, maize, 01 natural sciences, Standard deviation, F01 - Culture des plantes, wheat, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, water-use efficiency, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, General Environmental Science, agriculture, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, elevated co2, Ecology, Geography, Phenology, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Agricultura, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, simulation, Rendement des cultures, model intercomparison, climate change, CO2, Crop simulation model, Modèle mathématique, Crops, Agricultural, simulation-model, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, air co2 enrichment, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Agmip, Climate, Maize, Model Intercomparison, Simulation, Temperature, Uncertainty, Climate change, carbon-dioxide, Models, Biological, Zea mays, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, Environmental Chemistry, Water-use efficiency, climate, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Changement climatique, systems simulation, Modélisation des cultures, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Water, temperature, Modèle de simulation, Carbon Dioxide, yield, Température, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Yield (chemistry), 040103 agronomy & agriculture, AgMIP, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Dioxyde de carbone
Abstract: Comments This article is a U.S. government work, and is not subject to copyright in the United States. Abstract Potential consequences of climate change on crop production can be studied using mechanistic crop simulation models. While a broad variety of maize simulation models exist, it is not known whether different models diverge on grain yield responses to changes in climatic factors, or whether they agree in their general trends related to phenology, growth, and yield. With the goal of analyzing the sensitivity of simulated yields to changes in temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2], we present the largest maize crop model intercomparison to date, including 23 different models. These models were evaluated for four locations representing a wide range of maize production conditions in the world: Lusignan (France), Ames (USA), Rio Verde (Brazil) and Morogoro (Tanzania). While individual models differed considerably in absolute yield simulation at the four sites, an ensemble of a minimum number of models was able to simulate absolute yields accurately at the four sites even with low data for calibration, thus suggesting that using an ensemble of models has merit. Temperature increase had strong negative influence on modeled yield response of roughly 0.5 Mg ha 1 per °C. Doubling [CO2] from 360 to 720 lmol mol 1 increased grain yield by 7.5% on average across models and the sites. That would therefore make temperature the main factor altering maize yields at the end of this century. Furthermore, there was a large uncertainty in the yield response to [CO2] among models. Model responses to temperature and [CO2] did not differ whether models were simulated with low calibration information or, simulated with high level of calibration information.
Published: 2014
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13. Modulation of the seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent by sea ice processes and feedbacks with the ocean and the atmosphere

Author: Hugues Goosse, Sofia Allende Contador, Cecilia M. Bitz, Edward Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, Clare Eayrs, Thierry Fichefet, Kenza Himmich, Pierre-Vincent Huot, François Klein, Sylvain Marchi, François Massonnet, Bianca Mezzina, Charles Pelletier, Lettie Roach, Martin Vancoppenolle, Nicole P. M. van Lipzig, Earth and Life Institute - Environmental Sciences (ELIE), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Seattle], University of Washington [Seattle], New York University [Abu Dhabi], NYU System (NYU), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Leuven] (EES), Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], and UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Science & Technology, THICKNESS DISTRIBUTION, LIM3.6, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Geology, MODEL, Geography, Physical, Physical Geography, Physical Sciences, MASS-BALANCE, WATER, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, SENSITIVITY, MIXED-LAYER, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: The seasonal cycle of the Antarctic sea ice extent is strongly asymmetric, with a relatively slow increase after the summer minimum followed by a more rapid decrease after the winter maximum. This cycle is intimately linked to the seasonal cycle of the insolation received at the top of the atmosphere, but sea ice processes as well as the exchanges with the atmosphere and ocean may also play a role. To quantify these contributions, a series of idealized sensitivity experiments have been performed with an eddy-permitting (1/4∘) NEMO-LIM3 (Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model version 3) Southern Ocean configuration, including a representation of ice shelf cavities, in which the model was either driven by an atmospheric reanalysis or coupled to the COSMO-CLM2 regional atmospheric model. In those experiments, sea ice thermodynamics and dynamics as well as the exchanges with the ocean and atmosphere are strongly perturbed. This perturbation is achieved by modifying snow and ice thermal conductivities, the vertical mixing in the ocean top layers, the effect of freshwater uptake and release upon sea ice growth and melt, ice dynamics, and surface albedo. We find that the evolution of sea ice extent during the ice advance season is largely independent of the direct effect of the perturbation and appears thus mainly controlled by initial state in summer and subsequent insolation changes. In contrast, the melting rate varies strongly between the experiments during the retreat, in particular if the surface albedo or sea ice transport are modified, demonstrating a strong contribution of those elements to the evolution of ice coverage through spring and summer. As with the advance phase, the retreat is also influenced by conditions at the beginning of the melt season in September. Atmospheric feedbacks enhance the model winter ice extent response to any of the perturbed processes, and the enhancement is strongest when the albedo is modified. The response of sea ice volume and extent to changes in entrainment of subsurface warm waters to the ocean surface is also greatly amplified by the coupling with the atmosphere.
Published: 2022
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14. Attribution of multi-annual to decadal changes in the climate system: The Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (LESFMIP)

Author: Doug M. Smith, Nathan P. Gillett, Isla R. Simpson, Panos J. Athanasiadis, Johanna Baehr, Ingo Bethke, Tarkan A. Bilge, Rémy Bonnet, Olivier Boucher, Kirsten L. Findell, Guillaume Gastineau, Silvio Gualdi, Leon Hermanson, L. Ruby Leung, Juliette Mignot, Wolfgang A. Müller, Scott Osprey, Odd Helge Otterå, Geeta G. Persad, Adam A. Scaife, Gavin A. Schmidt, Hideo Shiogama, Rowan T. Sutton, Didier Swingedouw, Shuting Yang, Tianjun Zhou, Tilo Ziehn, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Center for Earth System Research and Sustainability (CEN), Universität Hamburg (UHH), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Oxford, Department of Geological Sciences [Austin], Jackson School of Geosciences (JSG), University of Texas at Austin [Austin]-University of Texas at Austin [Austin], College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), Environnements et Paléoenvironnements OCéaniques (EPOC), Observatoire aquitain des sciences de l'univers (OASU), Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Sciences et Technologies - Bordeaux 1 (UB)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences (LASG), University of Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (UCAS), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, and CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Pollution
Abstract: Multi-annual to decadal changes in climate are accompanied by changes in extreme events that cause major impacts on society and severe challenges for adaptation. Early warnings of such changes are now potentially possible through operational decadal predictions. However, improved understanding of the causes of regional changes in climate on these timescales is needed both to attribute recent events and to gain further confidence in forecasts. Here we document the Large Ensemble Single Forcing Model Intercomparison Project that will address this need through coordinated model experiments enabling the impacts of different external drivers to be isolated. We highlight the need to account for model errors and propose an attribution approach that exploits differences between models to diagnose the real-world situation and overcomes potential errors in atmospheric circulation changes. The experiments and analysis proposed here will provide substantial improvements to our ability to understand near-term changes in climate and will support the World Climate Research Program Lighthouse Activity on Explaining and Predicting Earth System Change. Copyright © 2022 Smith, Gillett, Simpson, Athanasiadis, Baehr, Bethke, Bilge, Bonnet, Boucher, Findell, Gastineau, Gualdi, Hermanson, Leung, Mignot, Müller, Osprey, Otterå, Persad, Scaife, Schmidt, Shiogama, Sutton, Swingedouw, Yang, Zhou and Ziehn.
Published: 2022
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15. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

Author: J. Hooker, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Joost Wolf, Pierre Martre, Iurii Shcherbak, L. A. Hunt, Kenneth J. Boote, L. Heng, James W. Jones, Jerry L. Hatfield, Katharina Waha, Christian Biernath, Iwan Supit, Eckart Priesack, Pasquale Steduto, S. Naresh Kumar, Davide Cammarano, Joachim Ingwersen, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Jordi Doltra, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Alex C. Ruane, Jeffrey W. White, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Tom M. Osborne, Patrick Bertuzzi, Sebastian Gayler, Andrew J. Challinor, Taru Palosuo, Reimund P. Rötter, Jørgen E. Olesen, Peter J. Thorburn, Nadine Brisson, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Maria I. Travasso, Daniel Wallach, James Williams, Garry O'Leary, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Carlos Angulo, Bruno Basso, R. Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Frank Ewert, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Claas Nendel, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Department of Agronomy, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario (CIFA), WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, nstitute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Landscape and Water Sciences, Department of Primary Industries, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz ( INRES ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] ( ICAS ), University of Leeds, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario ( CIFA ), University of Alberta [Edmonton], International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate change, projection, crop production, adaptation, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Greenhouse effect, Uncertainty analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, model, [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], food, Simulation modeling, ensemble, temperature, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Transient climate simulation, scenario, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, impact, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, co2, Climate model, Crop simulation model, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking. Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
Published: 2013
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16. A twenty-year study on natural and manmade global interannual fluctuations of cirrus cloud cover

Author: Eleftheratos , K., Zerefos , C. S., Zanis , P., Balis , D. S., Tselioudis , G., Gierens , K., Sausen , R., Laboratory of Climatology & Atmospheric Environment, Foundation for Biomedical Research, National Observatory of Athens ( NOA ), Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology [Athens], Academy of Athens, Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics [Thessaloniki], Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre ( IPA ), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] ( DLR ), EGU, Publication, Laboratory of Climatology and Atmospheric Environment [Athens] (LACAE), National and Kapodistrian University of Athens (NKUA), Hospital Universitario La Paz [Madrid, Spain]-Hospital Universitario La Paz [Madrid, Spain], National Observatory of Athens (NOA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), and Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU.OCEAN] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0103 physical sciences, 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, 01 natural sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to –0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about –0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid–latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.
Published: 2007

17. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops

Author: Kenneth J. Boote, Franz Badeck, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Andrej Ceglar, Gerard W. Wall, Remi Lecerf, Raúl López-Lozano, Matteo Zampieri, Andrea Toreti, Håkan Pleijel, Jean-Louis Durand, Frank Dentener, Remy Manderscheid, Francesco N. Tubiello, Gerald Moser, Christoph Müller, Bruce A. Kimball, Senthold Asseng, Erik Mencos Contreras, Garry O'Leary, Xuhui Wang, Eline Vanuytrecht, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Delphine Deryng, Stefano Galmarini, Heidi Webber, Maurits van den Berg, Petra Hoegy, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), NewClimate Institute, IRI THESys, Humboldt State University (HSU), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Lund University [Lund], Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven), University of Gothenburg (GU), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), University of Hohenheim, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Agriculture Victoria (AgriBio), Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, CARBON-DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT, PROTEIN-CONCENTRATION, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate change, Nutritional quality, 01 natural sciences, Crop, WHEAT-GRAIN QUALITY, FUTURE CO2, USE EFFICIENCY, Sustainable agriculture, Precipitation, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, Agricultural productivity, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, Science & Technology, FACE EXPERIMENT, business.industry, FOOD SECURITY, fungi, food and beverages, 15. Life on land, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT, MODEL, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Food Science & Technology, Environmental science, Animal Science and Zoology, business, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Agronomy and Crop Science, 010606 plant biology & botany, Food Science
Abstract: International audience; Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.Understanding of the effects of elevated CO2 on crops has improved sufficiently that modelling future climatic effects on agriculture should eliminate 'no CO2' simulations. Further advancement in the estimation of the effects can be realized by studying a wider variety of crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improving the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models and simulating additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.
Published: 2020
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18. A Simple Model for Tropical Convective Cloud Shield Area Growth and Decay Rates Informed by Geostationary IR, GPM, and Aqua/AIRS Satellite Data

Author: Gregory Elsaesser, Remy Roca, thomas fiolleau, Anthony D. Del Genio, Jingbo Wu, Columbia University [New York], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Geophysics, Space and Planetary Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: International audience; Deep convective system maximum areal extent is driven by the stratiform anvil area since convective area fractions are much less than unity when systems reach peak size. It is important to understand the processes that drive system size given the impact large systems have on rainfall and that of anvils on high cloud feedbacks. Using satellite diabatic heating and convective-stratiform information mapped to convective systems, composite analyses suggest that system maximum sizes occur at the temporal mid-point of system lifecycles with both maximum size and duration correlating with peak heating above the melting level. However, variations in system growth rates exist, with the overall smooth composites emerging as the average of highly variable system trajectories. Thus, this study focuses on understanding convective system growth rates on short (30-min) timescales via development of a simple analytical source—sink model that predicts system area changes. Growth occurs when detrained convective mass (inferred from the vertical gradient of diabatic heating and temperature lapse rates) and/or generation of convective area exceeds a sink term whose magnitude is proportional to the current cloud shield size. The model works well for systems over land and ocean, and for systems characterized by varying degrees of convective organization and duration (1.5–35 hr, with correlations often >0.8 across lifetime bins). The model may serve as a useful foundation for improved understanding of processes driving changes in tropics-wide convective system cloud shields, and further supports conceptual development and evaluation of prognostic climate model stratiform anvil area parameterizations
Published: 2022
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19. Climate change penalty and benefit on surface ozone: a global perspective based on CMIP6 earth system models

Author: Prodromos Zanis, Dimitris Akritidis, Steven Turnock, Vaishali Naik, Sophie Szopa, Aristeidis K Georgoulias, Susanne E Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Larry W Horowitz, James Keeble, Philippe Le Sager, Fiona M O’Connor, Naga Oshima, Konstantinos Tsigaridis, Twan van Noije, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), NCAS-Climate [Cambridge], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM)-University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], P Z, D A and A K G would like acknowledge the funding from the Action titled 'National Network on Climate Change and its Impacts—CLIMPACT' which is implemented under the sub-project 3 of the project 'Infrastructure of national research networks in the fields of Precision Medicine, Quantum Technology and Climate Change', funded by the Public Investment Program of Greece, General Secretary of Research and Technology/Ministry of Development and Investments. S T would like to acknowledge the UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund. M D and N O were supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP18H03363, JP18H05292, JP19K12312, and JP20K04070), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II), Program Grant Number JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). J K was financially supported by NERC through NCAS (Grant No. R8/H12/83/003). FMO was supported by the Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme funded by BEIS and Defra (Grant No. GA01101) and the EU Horizon 2020 Research Programme CRESCENDO project (Grant No. 641816)., and European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, penalty, climate change, surface ozone, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, benefit, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, General Environmental Science, ESMs
Abstract: This work presents an analysis of the effect of climate change on surface ozone discussing the related penalties and benefits around the globe from the global modelling perspective based on simulations with five CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) Earth System Models. As part of AerChemMIP (Aerosol Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project) all models conducted simulation experiments considering future climate (ssp370SST) and present-day climate (ssp370pdSST) under the same future emissions trajectory (SSP3-7.0). A multi-model global average climate change benefit on surface ozone of −0.96 ± 0.07 ppbv °C−1 is calculated which is mainly linked to the dominating role of enhanced ozone destruction with higher water vapour abundances under a warmer climate. Over regions remote from pollution sources, there is a robust decline in mean surface ozone concentration on an annual basis as well as for boreal winter and summer varying spatially from −0.2 to −2 ppbv °C−1, with strongest decline over tropical oceanic regions. The implication is that over regions remote from pollution sources (except over the Arctic) there is a consistent climate change benefit for baseline ozone due to global warming. However, ozone increases over regions close to anthropogenic pollution sources or close to enhanced natural biogenic volatile organic compounds emission sources with a rate ranging regionally from 0.2 to 2 ppbv C−1, implying a regional surface ozone penalty due to global warming. Overall, the future climate change enhances the efficiency of precursor emissions to generate surface ozone in polluted regions and thus the magnitude of this effect depends on the regional emission changes considered in this study within the SSP3_7.0 scenario. The comparison of the climate change impact effect on surface ozone versus the combined effect of climate and emission changes indicates the dominant role of precursor emission changes in projecting surface ozone concentrations under future climate change scenarios.
Published: 2022
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20. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Author: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons, Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford, Assessments from the Russian ship-basedcampaign were performed with the support of RFBR projectno. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program ofthe Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V.Lomonosov Moscow State University 'Future Planet and GlobalEnvironmental Change'. Development of the methodology foraethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported bythe Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS)project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the SwedishEnvironmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program(SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board(NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grantagreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supportedby the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council ofCanada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from theSwiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478).Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projectsNE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as wellas funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research andinnovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curiegrant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported bythe EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understandingon Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443)under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet(ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCIallocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center(CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et laDynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supportedby the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI(grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), theEnvironment Research and Technology Development Fund (grantnos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the ArcticChallenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grantno. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centrefor Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grantagreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency(grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish EnvironmentalProtection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project, grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand hasbeen supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT), ANR-17-EQPX-0001,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage,Plan d'évolution des moyens de stockage(2017), European Project: iCUPE, European Project: 689443,H2020,H2020-SC5-2015-one-stage,ERA-PLANET(2016), and European Project: 315195,EC:FP7:SME,FP7-SME-2012,NANOFLOC(2013)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Arctic climate, Oceanography, Hydrology and Water Resources, Atmospheric Science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Atmospheric models, Simulació per ordinador, Desenvolupament humà i sostenible::Degradació ambiental::Canvi climàtic [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Oceanografi, hydrologi och vattenresurser, Climatic changes, Air pollutants
Abstract: While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, modeling short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles in the Arctic allows us to simulate near-term climate and health impacts for a sensitive, pristine region that is warming at 3 times the global rate. Atmospheric modeling is critical for understanding the long-range transport of pollutants to the Arctic, as well as the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere. Modeling is also used as a tool to determine SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models by assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over 4 years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2022 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship, and aircraft-based observations. The annual means, seasonal cycles, and 3-D distributions of SLCFs were evaluated using several metrics, such as absolute and percent model biases and correlation coefficients. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean (mmm) was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic and had the best overall performance. For the SLCFs with the greatest radiative impact (CH4, O3, BC, and SO), the mmm was within ±25 % of the measurements across the Northern Hemisphere. Therefore, we recommend a multi-model ensemble be used for simulating climate and health impacts of SLCFs. Of the SLCFs in our study, model biases were smallest for CH4 and greatest for OA. For most SLCFs, model biases skewed from positive to negative with increasing latitude. Our analysis suggests that vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfires remain highly uncertain processes. These processes need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment. As model development proceeds in these areas, we highly recommend that the vertical and 3-D distribution of SLCFs be evaluated, as that information is critical to improving the uncertain processes in models. Assessments from the Russian ship-based campaign were performed with the support of RFBR project no. 20-55-12001 and according to the development program of the Interdisciplinary Scientific and Educational School of M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University “Future Planet and Global Environmental Change”. Development of the methodology for aethalometric data treatment was supported by RSF project no. 19-77-30004. The BC observations on R/V Mirai were supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan (Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) project). Contributions by SMHI were funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency under contract NV-03174-20 and the Swedish Climate and Clean Air Research program (SCAC) as well as partly by the Swedish National Space Board (NORD-SLCP, grant agreement ID: 94/16) and the EU Horizon 2020 project Integrated Arctic Observing System (INTAROS, grant agreement ID: 727890). Work on ACE-FTS analysis was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). Julia Schmale received funding from the Swiss National Science Foundation (project no. 200021_188478). Duncan Watson-Parris received funding from NERC projects NE/P013406/1 (A-CURE) and NE/S005390/1 (ACRUISE) as well as funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program iMIRACLI under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 860100. LATMOS has been supported by the EU iCUPE (Integrating and Comprehensive Understanding on Polar Environments) project (grant agreement no. 689443) under the European Network for Observing our Changing Planet (ERA-Planet), as well as access to IDRIS HPC resources (GENCI allocation A009017141) and the IPSL mesoscale computing center (CICLAD: Calcul Intensif pour le CLimat, l’Atmosphère et la Dynamique) for model simulations. Naga Oshima was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science KAKENHI (grant nos. JP18H03363, JP18H05292, and JP21H03582), the Environment Research and Technology Development Fund (grant nos. JPMEERF20202003 and JPMEERF20205001) of the Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency of Japan, the Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) under program grant no. JPMXD1420318865, and a grant for the Global Environmental Research Coordination System from the Ministry of the Environment, Japan (MLIT1753). The research with GISS-E2.1 has been supported by the Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change (iClimate) OH fund (no. 2020-0162731), the FREYA project funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers (grant agreement nos. MST-227-00036 and MFVM-2019-13476), and the EVAM-SLCF funded by the Danish Environmental Agency (grant agreement no. MST-112-00298). Jesper Christensen (for DEHM model) received funding from the Danish Environmental Protection Agency (DANCEA funds for Environmental Support to the Arctic Region project; grant no. 2019-7975). Maria Sand has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (grant 315195, ACCEPT). Peer Reviewed "Article signat per més de 50 autors/es: Cynthia H. Whaley, Rashed Mahmood, Knut von Salzen, Barbara Winter, Sabine Eckhardt, Stephen Arnold, Stephen Beagley, Silvia Becagli, Rong-You Chien, Jesper Christensen, Sujay Manish Damani, Xinyi Dong, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Gregory Faluvegi, Mark Flanner, Joshua S. Fu, Michael Gauss, Fabio Giardi, Wanmin Gong, Jens Liengaard Hjorth, Lin Huang, Ulas Im, Yugo Kanaya, Srinath Krishnan, Zbigniew Klimont, Thomas Kühn, Joakim Langner, Kathy S. Law, Louis Marelle, Andreas Massling, Dirk Olivié, Tatsuo Onishi, Naga Oshima, Yiran Peng, David A. Plummer, Olga Popovicheva, Luca Pozzoli, Jean-Christophe Raut, Maria Sand, Laura N. Saunders, Julia Schmale, Sangeeta Sharma, Ragnhild Bieltvedt Skeie, Henrik Skov, Fumikazu Taketani, Manu A. Thomas, Rita Traversi, Kostas Tsigaridis, Svetlana Tsyro, Steven Turnock, Vito Vitale, Kaley A. Walker, Minqi Wang, Duncan Watson-Parris, and Tahya Weiss-Gibbons "
Published: 2022
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21. Effects of forcing differences and initial conditions on inter-model agreement in the VolMIP volc-pinatubo-full experiment

Author: Wuhu Feng, Anja Schmidt, Helen Weierbach, Slimane Bekki, Kostas Tsigaridis, Davide Zanchettin, Lauren Marshall, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Nicolas Lebas, Myriam Khodri, Jason N. S. Cole, Allegra N. LeGrande, Graham Mann, Sara Rubinetti, Claudia Timmreck, Landon Rieger, Alan Robock, Shih-Wei Fang, Ben Johnson, Matthew Toohey, Manabu Abe, Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics [Venezia], University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy], Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Department of Geography [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], Institute of Space and Atmospheric Studies [Saskatoon] (ISAS), Department of Physics and Engineering Physics [Saskatoon], University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S)-University of Saskatchewan [Saskatoon] (U of S), Research Institute for Global Change (RIGC), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environment and Climate Change Canada, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, University of Edinburgh, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Department of Environmental Sciences [New Brunswick], School of Environmental and Biological Sciences [New Brunswick], Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey [New Brunswick] (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey [New Brunswick] (RU), Rutgers University System (Rutgers)-Rutgers University System (Rutgers), Earth and Environmental Sciences Area [LBNL Berkeley], Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), ANR-10-LABX-0018,L-IPSL,LabEx Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL): Understand climate and anticipate future changes(2010), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPC)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPC)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPC)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], geography, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography.geographical_feature_category, Scale (ratio), Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera, Sampling (statistics), Forcing (mathematics), Earth system science, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Volcano, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Climatology, Radiative transfer, [SDU.STU.VO]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Volcanology
Abstract: This paper provides initial results from a multi-model ensemble analysis based on the volc-pinatubo-full experiment performed within the Model Intercomparison Project on the climatic response to Volcanic forcing (VolMIP) as part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The volc-pinatubo-full experiment is based on an ensemble of volcanic forcing-only climate simulations with the same volcanic aerosol dataset across the participating models (the 1991–1993 Pinatubo period from the CMIP6-GloSSAC dataset). The simulations are conducted within an idealized experimental design where initial states are sampled consistently across models from the CMIP6-piControl simulation providing unperturbed preindustrial background conditions. The multi-model ensemble includes output from an initial set of six participating Earth system models (CanESM5, GISS-E2.1-G, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MIROC-E2SL, MPI-ESM1.2-LR and UKESM1). The results show overall good agreement between the different models on the global and hemispheric scales concerning the surface climate responses, thus demonstrating the overall effectiveness of VolMIP's experimental design. However, small yet significant inter-model discrepancies are found in radiative fluxes, especially in the tropics, that preliminary analyses link with minor differences in forcing implementation; model physics, notably aerosol–radiation interactions; the simulation and sampling of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); and, possibly, the simulation of climate feedbacks operating in the tropics. We discuss the volc-pinatubo-full protocol and highlight the advantages of volcanic forcing experiments defined within a carefully designed protocol with respect to emerging modelling approaches based on large ensemble transient simulations. We identify how the VolMIP strategy could be improved in future phases of the initiative to ensure a cleaner sampling protocol with greater focus on the evolving state of ENSO in the pre-eruption period.
Published: 2022
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22. Model evaluation of short-lived climate forcers for the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme: a multi-species, multi-model study

Author: Wanmin Gong, Sangeeta Sharma, Fumikazu Taketani, Duncan Watson-Parris, Knut von Salzen, Tahya Weiss-Gibbons, Sujay Damani, Kostas Tsigaridis, Henrik Skov, Tatsuo Onishi, Jean-Christophe Raut, Sabine Eckhardt, Barbara Winter, Ulas Im, S. R. Beagley, Laura Saunders, Jesper H. Christensen, Joshua Fu, Lin Huang, Fabio Giardi, Yugo Kanaya, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Stephen R. Arnold, Srinath Krishnan, Naga Oshima, Minqi Wang, Mark Flanner, Julia Schmale, Yiran Peng, Rashed Mahmood, Gregory Faluvegi, Joakim Langner, Cynthia H. Whaley, Andreas Massling, David A. Plummer, Kaley A. Walker, Luca Pozzoli, Michael Gauss, Vito Vitale, Steven Turnock, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Rong-You Chien, Maria Sand, Manu Anna Thomas, Silvia Becagli, Louis Marelle, Rita Traversi, Olga Popovicheva, Svetlana Tsyro, Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Hjorth, Thomas Kuhn, Konstantinos Eleftheriadis, Kathy S. Law, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Geography [Montréal], McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Climate Chemistry Measurements and Research, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), The University of Tennessee [Knoxville], Department of Environmental Science [Roskilde] (ENVS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Institute of Nuclear and Radiological Sciences and Technology, Energy and Safety (INRASTES), National Center for Scientific Research 'Demokritos' (NCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System, Dipartimento di Chimica 'Ugo schifo', Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Department of Applied Physics [Kuopio], University of Kuopio, Atmospheric Research Centre of Eastern Finland, Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), TROPO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Center for Earth System Science [Beijing] (CESS), Tsinghua University [Beijing] (THU), Lomonosov Moscow State University (MSU), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), University of Toronto, Extreme Environments Research Laboratory (EERL), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], and European Project: iCUPE
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], Atmospheric models, Global warming, Northern Hemisphere, Particulates, Atmospheric sciences, Earth system science, Atmosphere, chemistry.chemical_compound, Arctic, chemistry, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Tropospheric ozone
Abstract: The Arctic atmosphere is warming rapidly and its relatively pristine environment is sensitive to the long-range transport of atmospheric pollutants. While carbon dioxide is the main cause for global warming, short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) such as methane, ozone, and particles also play a role in Arctic climate on near-term time scales. Atmospheric modelling is critical for understanding the abundance and distribution of SLCFs throughout the Arctic atmosphere, and is used as a tool towards determining SLCF impacts on climate and health in the present and in future emissions scenarios. In this study, we evaluate 18 state-of-the-art atmospheric and Earth system models, assessing their representation of Arctic and Northern Hemisphere atmospheric SLCF distributions, considering a wide range of different chemical species (methane, tropospheric ozone and its precursors, black carbon, sulfate, organic aerosol, and particulate matter) and multiple observational datasets. Model simulations over four years (2008–2009 and 2014–2015) conducted for the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) SLCF assessment report are thoroughly evaluated against satellite, ground, ship and aircraft-based observations. The results show a large range in model performance, with no one particular model or model type performing well for all regions and all SLCF species. The multi-model mean was able to represent the general features of SLCFs in the Arctic, though vertical mixing, long-range transport, deposition, and wildfire emissions remain highly uncertain processes. These need better representation within atmospheric models to improve their simulation of SLCFs in the Arctic environment.
Published: 2022
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23. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author: Cinner, Joshua Eli, Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler, Everett, Jason, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina, Heneghan, Ryan, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek, Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoralCoE), James Cook University (JCU), Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE), Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Aragón [Saragoza, España] (ICMA-CSIC), University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza], College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Smithfield, Qld, Australia, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research (CFER), Memorial University of Newfoundland = Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve [St. John's, Canada] (MUN), School of Mathematics and Physics [Brisbane], University of Queensland [Brisbane], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, School of Mathematical Sciences [Brisbane], Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT)-Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Technology (University of Dar es Salaam), University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University (CAU), Laboratoire Service d' Experimentations Aquacoles [Palavas les Flots] (LSEA MARBEC), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Santa Cruz], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UC Santa Cruz), Department of Biology (Dalhousie University), Dalhousie University [Halifax], Pwani University, Kenya, and Department of Fisheries, Animal and Veterinary Sciences, College of the Environment and Life Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston
Subjects: [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Climate Action, Zero Hunger
Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.
Published: 2022

24. Extreme lows of wheat production in Brazil

Author: Marijn van der Velde, Tamara Ben-Ari, Pierre Martre, Rogério de Souza Nóia Júnior, Frank Ewert, Heidi Webber, Alex C. Ruane, Robert Finger, Senthold Asseng, Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Management, Technology, and Economics [ETH Zürich] (D-MTEC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), and Technical University of Munich (TUM)
Subjects: 2. Zero hunger, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Climate change, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, ddc, 03 medical and health sciences, Extreme weather, Geography, climate change, 13. Climate action, extreme weather, Climatology, food price and food security, Food price and food security, Production (economics), 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Wheat production in Brazil is insufficient to meet domestic demand and falls drastically in response to adverse climate events. Multiple, agro-climate-specific regression models, quantifying regional production variability, were combined to estimate national production based on past climate, cropping area, trend-corrected yield, and national commodity prices. Projections with five CMIP6 climate change models suggest extremes of low wheat production historically occurring once every 20 years would become up to 90% frequent by the end of this century, depending on representative concentration pathway, magnified by wheat and in some cases by maize price fluctuations. Similar impacts can be expected for other crops and in other countries. This drastic increase in frequency in extreme low crop production with climate change will threaten Brazil's and many other countries progress toward food security and abolishing hunger. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318
Published: 2021
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25. ESD Reviews: Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation

Author: C. Heinze, V. Eyring, P. Friedlingstein, C. Jones, Y. Balkanski, W. Collins, T. Fichefet, S. Gao, A. Hall, D. Ivanova, W. Knorr, R. Knutti, A. Löw, M. Ponater, M. G. Schultz, M. Schulz, P. Siebesma, J. Teixeira, G. Tselioudis, M. Vancoppenolle, Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Institute of Environmental Physics [Bremen] (IUP), University of Bremen, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, National Centre for Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (NCAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Meteorology [Monterey], Naval Postgraduate School (NPS), Centre Georges Lemaître for Earth and Climate Research [Louvain] (TECLIM), Earth and Life Institute [Louvain-La-Neuve] (ELI), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL)-Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California-University of California, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center [Bergen] (NERSC), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Geography [München], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH | Centre de recherche de Juliers, Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft = Helmholtz Association, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), and UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate
Subjects: Climate modelling, lcsh:Dynamic and structural geology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, Climate change, Cloud computing, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:QE500-639.5, Temporal heterogeneity, Erdsystem-Modellierung, ddc:550, Ecosystem, Erdsystemmodell -Evaluation und -Analyse, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, climate feedbacks, business.industry, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Environmental resource management, climate model evaluation, lcsh:Geology, Interdependence, Earth system science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q, Climate model, business
Abstract: Earth system models (ESMs) are key tools for providing climate projections under different scenarios of human-induced forcing. ESMs include a large number of additional processes and feedbacks such as biogeochemical cycles that traditional physical climate models do not consider. Yet, some processes such as cloud dynamics and ecosystem functional response still have fairly high uncertainties. In this article, we present an overview of climate feedbacks for Earth system components currently included in state-of-the-art ESMs and discuss the challenges to evaluate and quantify them. Uncertainties in feedback quantification arise from the interdependencies of biogeochemical matter fluxes and physical properties, the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of processes, and the lack of long-term continuous observational data to constrain them. We present an outlook for promising approaches that can help to quantify and to constrain the large number of feedbacks in ESMs in the future. The target group for this article includes generalists with a background in natural sciences and an interest in climate change as well as experts working in interdisciplinary climate research (researchers, lecturers, and students). This study updates and significantly expands upon the last comprehensive overview of climate feedbacks in ESMs, which was produced 15 years ago (NRC, 2003).
Published: 2019
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26. Ongoing Breakthroughs in Convective Parameterization

Author: Anthony D. Del Genio, Catherine Rio, Frédéric Hourdin, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, Cloud cover, Mesoscale meteorology, Climate change, Atmospheric model, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Convective parameterization, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], 13. Climate action, Systems engineering, Climate model, Representation (mathematics), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: While the increase of computer power mobilizes a part of the atmospheric modeling community toward models with explicit convection or based on machine learning, we review the part of the literature dedicated to convective parameterization development for large-scale forecast and climate models. Many developments are underway to overcome endemic limitations of traditional convective parameterizations, either in unified or multiobject frameworks: scale-aware and stochastic approaches, new prognostic equations or representations of new components such as cold pools. Understanding their impact on the emergent properties of a model remains challenging, due to subsequent tuning of parameters and the limited understanding given by traditional metrics. Further effort still needs to be dedicated to the representation of the life cycle of convective systems, in particular their mesoscale organization and associated cloud cover. The development of more process-oriented metrics based on new observations is also needed to help quantify model improvement and better understand the mechanisms of climate change.
Published: 2019
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27. Climate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein

Author: Mohamed Jabloun, Pierre Martre, Garry O'Leary, Dominique Ripoche, Bruno Basso, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Daniel Wallach, Matthew P. Reynolds, Marijn van der Velde, John R. Porter, Heidi Webber, Enli Wang, Frank Ewert, Joost Wolf, Christian Klein, Belay T. Kassie, Christian Biernath, Margarita Garcia-Vila, M. Ali Babar, Pierre Stratonovitch, Yujing Gao, Glenn J. Fitzgerald, Davide Cammarano, Bing Liu, Peter J. Thorburn, Fulu Tao, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Christine Girousse, Zhigan Zhao, Christoph Müller, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Jørgen E. Olesen, Elias Fereres, Iwan Supit, Andrea Maiorano, Marco Bindi, Sebastian Gayler, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Giacomo De Sanctis, Alex C. Ruane, Rosella Motzo, Juraj Balkovic, Manuel Montesino San Martin, Roberto Ferrise, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Benjamin Dumont, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Mukhtar Ahmed, Senthold Asseng, Thilo Streck, Yan Zhu, R. Cesar Izaurralde, Katharina Waha, Ahmed M. S. Kheir, Taru Palosuo, Liujun Xiao, Sara Minoli, Eckart Priesack, Heidi Horan, Curtis D. Jones, Francesco Giunta, Zhao Zhang, Claas Nendel, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), European Commission, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (UK), Innovation Fund Denmark, China Scholarship Council, Ministero delle Politiche Agricole Alimentari e Forestali, Academy of Finland, Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Department of Agriculture and Water Resources (Australia), University of Melbourne, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), German Research Foundation, Gorgan University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Centre for Biodiversity and Sustainable Land-use [University of Göttingen] (CBL), Department of Economic Drt and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Agriculture Victoria Research, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Science [Melbourne], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020]), Department of Agricultural Sciences, University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, World Food Crops Breeding, Department of Agronomy, IFAS, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Soils, Water and Environment Research Institute, Agricultural Research Center (ARC), Agriculture and Food, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Department of Agronomy, University of El-Tarf, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Natural Sciences, Comenius University in Bratislava, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Department of Agri‐food Production and Environmental Sciences (DISPAA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Collaborative Research Program from CGIAR and Future Earth on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), International Center for Tropical Agriculture, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority, Department Terra & AgroBioChem, Gembloux Agro‐Bio Tech, Université de Liège, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Department of Crop Sciences, Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible - Institute for Sustainable Agriculture (IAS CSIC), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Food Systems Institute [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), Department of Geographical Sciences, College Park, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology [Neuherberg], German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Key Laboratory for Crop System Analysis and Decision Making, Ministry of Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Department of Plant and Environmental Sciences [Copenhagen], Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (UCPH), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture [New Delhi], Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Lincoln, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Water & Food and Water Systems & Global Change Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Joint Research Centre (IPTS), Commission Européenne, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), CSIRO Agriculture and Food (CSIRO), Plant Production Systems, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology, China Agricultural University (CAU), National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China, Grant/Award Number: 20120097110042, International Food Policy, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), University of Göttingen - Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Naples Federico II, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Universtiy of Florence, University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Wageningen University, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, University of Goettingen, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, BISA‐CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Comenius University [Bratislava], Helmholtz Zentrum München, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, University of Bonn, IAS‐CSIC, Universidad de Cordoba, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Aarhus University, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Beijing Normal University, and China Agricultural University
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Water en Voedsel, 01 natural sciences, grain protein, adaptation au milieu, climate change adaptation, climate change impact, food security, wheat, Co2 concentration, adaptation to the environment, Triticum, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Global and Planetary Change, Food security, Ecology, Temperature, food and beverages, Adaptation, Physiological, Droughts, Nitrogen, Climate Change, Climate change, 010603 evolutionary biology, blé, Crop production, Food Quality, Grain quality, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Environmental Chemistry, Grain Proteins, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, WIMEK, Water and Food, Global change, Carbon Dioxide, Models, Theoretical, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Grain yield, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, Protein concentration
Abstract: Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32‐multi‐model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low‐rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2. Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by −1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of −8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production., B.L received support from the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat. A.M. received support from the EU Marie Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement no. PCOFUND‐GA‐2010‐267196. PM, A.M., D.R., and D.W. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). L.X. and Y.Z. were supported by the National High‐Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), and the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD). F.T. and Z.Z. were supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41571088, 41571493 and 31561143003). R.R. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) through project SPACES‐LLL. Rothamsted Research receives support from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) Designing Future Wheat programme [BB/P016855/1]. M.J. and J.E.O. were supported by Innovation Fund Denmark through the MACSUR project. L.X. and Y.G. acknowledge support from the China Scholarship Council. M.B and R.F. were funded by JPI FACCE MACSUR2 through the Italian Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forestry Policies and thank A. Soltani from Gorgan Univ. of Agric. Sci. & Natur. Resour. for his support. R.P.R., T.P., and F.T. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM) and from the Academy of Finland through the projects NORFASYS (decision nos. 268277 and 292944) and PLUMES (decision nos. 277403 and 292836). K.C.K. and C.N. received support from the German Ministry for Research and Education (BMBF) within the FACCE JPI MACSUR project. S.M. and C.M. acknowledge financial support from the MACMIT project (01LN1317A) funded through BMBF. G.J.O. and G.J.F. acknowledge support from the Victorian Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources, the Australian Department of Agriculture and Water Resources, The University of Melbourne and the Grains Research Development Corporation, Australia. P.K.A.'s work was implemented as part of the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), which is carried out with support from the CGIAR Trust Fund and through bilateral funding agreements. For details please visit https://ccafs.cgiar.org/donors. The views expressed in this document cannot be taken to reflect the official opinions of these organizations.. B.B. received financial support from USDA NIFA‐Water Cap Award 2015‐68007‐23133. F.E. acknowledges support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J) and from the German Science Foundation (project EW 119/5‐1).
Published: 2019
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28. Science Motivations for the Future Exploration of Ceres

Author: Castillo-Rogez, Julie, Scully, Jennifer, Neveu, Marc, Wyrick, Danielle, Thangjam, Guneshwar, Rivkin, Andrew, Sori, Michael, Vinogradoff, Vassilissa, Miller, Kelly, Ermakov, Anon, Hughson, Kynan, Quick, Lynnae, Nathues, Andreas, Sanctis, Maria Cristina De, Ermakov, Anton, De Sanctis, Maria, Ahrens, C, Beck, P, Bland, P, Bose, M, Buczkowski, D, Combe, J.-P, Daly, T, Desch, S, Espley, J, Fries, M, Friesen, S, Glein, C, Hodyss, R, House, C, Jaumann, R, Kite, E, Krohn, K, Landis, M, Li, J.-Y, Mcadam, A, Marchi, S, Meech, K, Melwani Daswani, M, Mccord, T, Neumann, W, O'Brien, D, Otto, K, Palomba, E, Parekh, R, Raymond, C, Roatsch, T, Ruesch, O, Russell, C, Sarid, G, Schmitz, N, Sizemore, H, Stein, N, Stephan, K, Tosi, F, Vernazza, P, Villarreal, M, Williams, D, Yano, H, Zambon, F, Zolensky, M, Mcsween, H, Shi, X, Ip, W.-H, Lucchetti, A, Pajola, Maurizio, Santos-Sanz, P, Ulamec, S, De Léon, J, Barucci, A, Henderson, B, Kaplan, H, Hofmann, A, Ciarniello, M, Neesemann, A, Raponi, A, Jha, D, Graps, A, Formisano, M, Schenk, P, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Physique des interactions ioniques et moléculaires (PIIM), and Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Environmental science, 010501 environmental sciences, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2021
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29. Exploring Solar System Organic Chemistry Evolution through the Surfaces of Ceres and Large Asteroids

Author: Christopher H. House, José C. Aponte, A. A. Pavlov, Erwan Mazarico, Marc Neveu, Heather B. Franz, Bethany L. Ehlmann, Kris Zacny, Vassilissa Vinogradoff, Julie Castillo-Rogez, Department of Astronomy, University of Maryland, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Catholic University of America, Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), NASA, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Physique des interactions ioniques et moléculaires (PIIM), Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Honeybee Robotics Ltd
Subjects: Solar System, [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph], 13. Climate action, Asteroid, Environmental science, Astrobiology
Abstract: International audience; Accessing and characterizing solar system organic material is crucial for understanding the processes by which our Solar System became habitable. Recent surfaces in craters of large asteroids (e.g., Ceres), with diverse ages and abundant organic compounds, provide a natural laboratory to study organic chemistry and habitability through time.
Published: 2021
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30. A multimillion-year-old record of Greenland vegetation and glacial history preserved in sediment beneath 1.4 km of ice at Camp Century

Author: Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Andrea Lini, Dorothy M. Peteet, Eric J. Steig, Lee B. Corbett, Tammy M. Rittenour, Alan J. Hidy, Joerg M. Schaefer, Elizabeth K. Thomas, Marc W. Caffee, Nicolas Perdrial, Andrew J. Christ, John Southon, Paul R. Bierman, Jean-Louis Tison, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Pierre-Henri Blard, David P. Dethier, University of Vermont [Burlington], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Niels Bohr Institute [Copenhagen] (NBI), Faculty of Science [Copenhagen], University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU)-University of Copenhagen = Københavns Universitet (KU), Centre for Earth Observation Science [Winnipeg], University of Manitoba [Winnipeg], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), University at Buffalo [SUNY] (SUNY Buffalo), State University of New York (SUNY), University of Washington [Seattle], Utah State University (USU), Laboratoire de Glaciologie [Bruxelles], Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Centre de Recherches Pétrographiques et Géochimiques (CRPG), Université de Lorraine (UL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Williams College [Williamstown], Center for Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (CAMS), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Department of Physics and Astronomy [West Lafayette], Purdue University [West Lafayette], Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California-University of California, Gund Institute for Environment (Christ, Bierman), NSF-EAR 1735676 (Bierman), NASA/GISS and LDEO (Peteet), Belgian FNRS – FRFC grant no. 2.4601.12F (Tison), and NSF-EAR 1652274 (Thomas)
Subjects: Geologic Sediments, Early Pleistocene, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Pleistocene, Greenland, Greenland ice sheet, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Ice core, Freezing, Ice Cover, Glacial period, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, climate, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Radioisotopes, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, Multidisciplinary, geography.geographical_feature_category, Fossils, Plant Dispersal, ice core Arctic, Sediment, 15. Life on land, ice sheet, 13. Climate action, Physical Sciences, Interglacial, Beryllium, Physical geography, Ice sheet, Geology, Aluminum, Sciences exactes et naturelles
Abstract: Understanding the history of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is critical for determining its sensitivity to warming and contribution to sea level; however, that history is poorly known before the last interglacial. Most knowledge comes from interpretation of marine sediment, an indirect record of past ice-sheet extent and behavior. Subglacial sediment and rock, retrieved at the base of ice cores, provide terrestrial evidence for GrIS behavior during the Pleistocene. Here, we use multiple methods to determine GrIS history from subglacial sediment at the base of the Camp Century ice core collected in 1966. This material contains a stratigraphic record of glaciation and vegetation in northwestern Greenland spanning the Pleistocene. Enriched stable isotopes of pore-ice suggest precipitation at lower elevations implying ice-sheet absence. Plant macrofossils and biomarkers in the sediment indicate that paleo-ecosystems from previous interglacial periods are preserved beneath the GrIS. Cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be and luminescence data bracket the burial of the lower-most sediment between 0.7 to 1.4 Ma. In the upper-most sediment, cosmogenic 26 Al/ 10 Be data require exposure within the last 1.0 ± 0.1 My. The unique subglacial sedimentary record from Camp Century documents at least two episodes of ice-free, vegetated conditions, each followed by glaciation. The lower sediment derives from an Early Pleistocene GrIS advance. 26 Al/ 10 Be ratios in the upper-most sediment match those in subglacial bedrock from central Greenland, suggesting similar ice-cover histories across the GrIS. We conclude that the GrIS persisted through much of the Pleistocene but melted and reformed at least once since 1.1 Ma., info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2021
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31. Constraining human contributions to observed warming since the pre-industrial period

Author: Aurélien Ribes, Nathan P. Gillett, Hideo Shiogama, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Lijuan Li, Tongwen Wu, Guillaume Gastineau, Megan C. Kirchmeier-Young, Nan Rosenbloom, Reto Knutti, Øyvind Seland, Jasmin G. John, Tilo Ziehn, Seiji Yukimoto, Larissa Nazarenko, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Climate Research Division [Toronto], Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Beijing Municipal Climate Center, Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: 0303 health sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Air temperature, Greenhouse gas, Period (geology), Environmental science, Climate model, Mean radiant temperature, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Parties to the Paris Agreement agreed to holding global average temperature increases “well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels”. Monitoring the contributions of human-induced climate forcings to warming so far is key to understanding progress towards these goals. Here we use climate model simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project, as well as regularized optimal fingerprinting, to show that anthropogenic forcings caused 0.9 to 1.3 °C of warming in global mean near-surface air temperature in 2010–2019 relative to 1850–1900, compared with an observed warming of 1.1 °C. Greenhouse gases and aerosols contributed changes of 1.2 to 1.9 °C and −0.7 to −0.1 °C, respectively, and natural forcings contributed negligibly. These results demonstrate the substantial human influence on climate so far and the urgency of action needed to meet the Paris Agreement goals. Quantifying the temperature impacts of anthropogenic emissions helps monitor proximity to the Paris Agreement goals. Human activities warmed global mean temperature during the past decade by 0.9 to 1.3 °C above 1850–1900 values, with 1.2 to 1.9 °C from greenhouse gases and −0.7 to −0.1 °C from aerosols.
Published: 2021
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32. Contribution of the world's main dust source regions to the global cycle of desert dust

Author: J. F. Kok, A. A. Adebiyi, S. Albani, Y. Balkanski, R. Checa-Garcia, M. Chin, P. R. Colarco, D. S. Hamilton, Y. Huang, A. Ito, M. Klose, L. Li, N. M. Mahowald, R. L. Miller, V. Obiso, C. Pérez García-Pando, A. Rocha-Lima, J. S. Wan, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences [Ithaca) (EAS), Cornell University [New York], Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Department of Physics [Baltimore], University of Maryland [Baltimore County] (UMBC), University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, European Project: 708119,H2020,H2020-MSCA-IF-2015,DUSC3(2016), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Kok, J, Adebiyi, A, Albani, S, Balkanski, Y, Checa-Garcia, R, Chin, M, Colarco, P, Hamilton, D, Huang, Y, Ito, A, Klose, M, Li, L, Mahowald, N, Miller, R, Obiso, V, Perez Garcia-Pando, C, Rocha-Lima, A, and Wan, J
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Biogeochemical cycle, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, QC1-999, Extinction (astronomy), Global dust cycle, Flux, 010501 environmental sciences, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Atmosphere, Atmospheric models, Earth's atmosphere, Simulació per ordinador, Earth System Model, ddc:550, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Aerosol, QD1-999, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Climate Model, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Asian Dust, Physics, Aerosol model simulations, Dust, 15. Life on land, Atmosfera -- Aspectes ambientals, Chemistry, Earth sciences, Deposition (aerosol physics), 13. Climate action, Enginyeria agroalimentària::Ciències de la terra i de la vida [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Air quality, Environmental science, Climate model, Aerosols--Measurement, Desert dust
Abstract: Even though desert dust is the most abundant aerosol by mass in Earth's atmosphere, the relative contributions of the world's major source regions to the global dust cycle remain poorly constrained. This problem hinders accounting for the potentially large impact of regional differences in dust properties on clouds, the Earth's energy balance, and terrestrial and marine biogeochemical cycles. Here, we constrain the contribution of each of the world's main dust source regions to the global dust cycle. We use an analytical framework that integrates an ensemble of global aerosol model simulations with observationally informed constraints on the dust size distribution, extinction efficiency, and regional dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD). We obtain a dataset that constrains the relative contribution of nine major source regions to size-resolved dust emission, atmospheric loading, DAOD, concentration, and deposition flux. We find that the 22–29 Tg (1 standard error range) global loading of dust with a geometric diameter up to 20 µm is partitioned as follows: North African source regions contribute ∼ 50 % (11–15 Tg), Asian source regions contribute ∼ 40 % (8–13 Tg), and North American and Southern Hemisphere regions contribute ∼ 10 % (1.8–3.2 Tg). These results suggest that current models on average overestimate the contribution of North African sources to atmospheric dust loading at ∼ 65 %, while underestimating the contribution of Asian dust at ∼ 30 %. Our results further show that each source region's dust loading peaks in local spring and summer, which is partially driven by increased dust lifetime in those seasons. We also quantify the dust deposition flux to the Amazon rainforest to be ∼ 10 Tg yr−1, which is a factor of 2–3 less than inferred from satellite data by previous work that likely overestimated dust deposition by underestimating the dust mass extinction efficiency. The data obtained in this paper can be used to obtain improved constraints on dust impacts on clouds, climate, biogeochemical cycles, and other parts of the Earth system. This research has been supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) (grant nos. 1552519 and 1856389) and the Army Research Office (cooperative agreement number W911NF-20-2-0150). This research was further support by the University of California President's Postdoctoral Fellowship awarded to Adeyemi A. Adebiyi and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement no. 708119 awarded to Samuel Albani and no. 789630 awarded to Martina Klose. Ramiro Checa-Garcia received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation under grant 641816 (CRESCENDO). Akinori Ito received support from JSPS KAKENHI grant number 20H04329 and Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) grant number JPMXD0717935715 from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan. Peter R. Colarco and Adriana Rocha-Lima were supported by the NASA Atmospheric Composition: Modeling and Analysis Program (Richard Eckman, program manager) and the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) for computational resources. Yue Huang was supported by NASA grant 80NSSC19K1346 awarded under the Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology (FINESST) program. Ron L. Miller and Vincenzo Obiso received support from the NASA Modeling, Analysis and Prediction Program (NNG14HH42I) along with the NASA EMIT project and the Earth Venture Instrument program, with computational resources from the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). Samuel Albani received funding from MIUR (Progetto Dipartimenti di Eccellenza 2018-2022). Carlos Pérez García-Pando received support from the European Research Council (grant no. 773051, FRAGMENT), the EU H2020 project FORCES (grant no. 821205), the AXA Research Fund, and the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities (RYC-2015-18690 and CGL2017-88911-R). Longlei Li received support from the NASA EMIT project and the Earth Venture – Instrument program (grant no. E678605). Yves Balkanski and Ramiro Checa-Garcia received funding from the PolEASIA ANR project under allocation ANR-15-CE04-0005. Peer Reviewed "Article signat per 18 autors/es: Jasper F. Kok, Adeyemi A. Adebiyi, Samuel Albani, Yves Balkanski, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Mian Chin, Peter R. Colarco, Douglas S. Hamilton, Yue Huang, Akinori Ito, Martina Klose, Longlei Li, Natalie M. Mahowald, Ron L. Miller, Vincenzo Obiso, Carlos Pérez García-Pando, Adriana Rocha-Lima, and Jessica S. Wan"
Published: 2021
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33. Improved Lorenz-Mie Look-Up Table for Lidar and Polarimeter Retrievals

Author: Sharon P. Burton, Snorre Stamnes, Richard Ferrare, Xu Liu, Brian Cairns, Chris Hostetler, Eduard Chemyakin, Oleg Dubovik, NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique - UMR 8518 (LOA), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Physics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Backscatter, Lorenz-Mie theory, Scattering, business.industry, [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering, polarimeter, Polarimeter, scale invariance rule, Table (information), 01 natural sciences, Light scattering, 010309 optics, look-up table, Optics, Lidar, Extinction (optical mineralogy), 0103 physical sciences, Lookup table, scattering matrix and optical coefficients, business, lidar, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Lidar and polarimeter aerosol microphysical retrievals require calculating single-scattering properties that are computationally expensive. One of the easiest ways to speed up these calculations is to use a look-up table. Two important currently available look-up tables were created about 15 years ago. Advancements in modern computational hardware allows us to create a new look-up table with improved precision over a larger range of aerosol properties. In this new and improved Lorenz-Mie look-up table we tabulate the light scattering by an ensemble of homogeneous isotropic spheres at arbitrary wavelengths starting from 0.355 μm. The improved look-up table covers spherical atmospheric aerosols with radii in the range of 0.001–100 μm, with real parts of the complex refractive index in the range of 1.29–1.65, and with imaginary parts of the complex refractive index in the range of 0–0.05. We test twelve wavelengths from 0.355 to 2.264 μm and find that the elements of the normalized scattering matrix as well as the asymmetry parameter, the aerosol absorption, backscatter, extinction, and scattering coefficients are precise to within 1% for 99.99% of cases. The look-up table together with C++, Fortran, Matlab, and Python codes are freely available online.
Published: 2021
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34. AeroCom phase III multi-model evaluation of the aerosol life cycle and optical properties using ground- and space-based remote sensing as well as surface in situ observations

Author: A. Heckel, Philippe Le Sager, Paul Ginoux, Hitoshi Matsui, David Neubauer, Marianne Tronstad Lund, Mian Chin, Cathrine Lund Myhre, Samuel Remy, Jan Griesfeller, Huisheng Bian, Harri Kokkola, Yves Balkanski, Svetlana Tsyro, Alf Kirkevåg, Twan van Noije, Susanne E. Bauer, Jonas Gliß, Toshihiko Takemura, Larisa Sogacheva, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Elisabeth Andrews, Ramiro Checa-Garcia, Gunnar Myhre, Kostas Tsigaridis, Augustin Mortier, Michael Schulz, Zak Kipling, Peter North, Anna Benedictow, Paolo Laj, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES), University of Colorado [Boulder]-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Swansea University, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Graduate School of Environmental Studies [Nagoya], Nagoya University, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), HYGEOS (SARL), Research Institute for Applied Mechanics [Fukuoka] (RIAM), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], This research has been supported by the Research Council of Norway (EVA (grant no. 229771), INES (grantno. 270061), and KeyClim (grant no. 295046)) and the Horizon 2020 project CRESCENDO (grant no. 641816). High performance computing and storage resources were provided bythe Norwegian Infrastructure for Computational Science (throughprojects NN2345K, NN9560K, NS2345K, and NS9560K). Pleasealso note further funding sources in the Acknowledgements, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Kyushu University, and Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR)
Subjects: MIXING-STATE, Atmospheric Science, Angstrom exponent, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, SEA-SALT AEROSOL, DUST, Forcing (mathematics), Atmospheric sciences, 114 Physical sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Chemistry, Atmosphere, 03 medical and health sciences, SIZE DISTRIBUTION, Radiative transfer, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 1172 Environmental sciences, Optical depth, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, VERTICAL PROFILES, Single-scattering albedo, LIGHT-ABSORPTION, lcsh:QC1-999, AERONET, Aerosol, MODEL, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, DEPTH, GLOBAL ATMOSPHERE, Environmental science, REFRACTIVE-INDEX, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: Within the framework of the AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) initiative, the state-of-the-art modelling of aerosol optical properties is assessed from 14 global models participating in the phase III control experiment (AP3). The models are similar to CMIP6/AerChemMIP Earth System Models (ESMs) and provide a robust multi-model ensemble. Inter-model spread of aerosol species lifetimes and emissions appears to be similar to that of mass extinction coefficients (MECs), suggesting that aerosol optical depth (AOD) uncertainties are associated with a broad spectrum of parameterised aerosol processes. Total AOD is approximately the same as in AeroCom phase I (AP1) simulations. However, we find a 50 % decrease in the optical depth (OD) of black carbon (BC), attributable to a combination of decreased emissions and lifetimes. Relative contributions from sea salt (SS) and dust (DU) have shifted from being approximately equal in AP1 to SS contributing about 2∕3 of the natural AOD in AP3. This shift is linked with a decrease in DU mass burden, a lower DU MEC, and a slight decrease in DU lifetime, suggesting coarser DU particle sizes in AP3 compared to AP1. Relative to observations, the AP3 ensemble median and most of the participating models underestimate all aerosol optical properties investigated, that is, total AOD as well as fine and coarse AOD (AODf, AODc), Ångström exponent (AE), dry surface scattering (SCdry), and absorption (ACdry) coefficients. Compared to AERONET, the models underestimate total AOD by ca. 21 % ± 20 % (as inferred from the ensemble median and interquartile range). Against satellite data, the ensemble AOD biases range from −37 % (MODIS-Terra) to −16 % (MERGED-FMI, a multi-satellite AOD product), which we explain by differences between individual satellites and AERONET measurements themselves. Correlation coefficients (R) between model and observation AOD records are generally high (R>0.75), suggesting that the models are capable of capturing spatio-temporal variations in AOD. We find a much larger underestimate in coarse AODc (∼ −45 % ± 25 %) than in fine AODf (∼ −15 % ± 25 %) with slightly increased inter-model spread compared to total AOD. These results indicate problems in the modelling of DU and SS. The AODc bias is likely due to missing DU over continental land masses (particularly over the United States, SE Asia, and S. America), while marine AERONET sites and the AATSR SU satellite data suggest more moderate oceanic biases in AODc. Column AEs are underestimated by about 10 % ± 16 %. For situations in which measurements show AE > 2, models underestimate AERONET AE by ca. 35 %. In contrast, all models (but one) exhibit large overestimates in AE when coarse aerosol dominates (bias ca. +140 % if observed AE < 0.5). Simulated AE does not span the observed AE variability. These results indicate that models overestimate particle size (or underestimate the fine-mode fraction) for fine-dominated aerosol and underestimate size (or overestimate the fine-mode fraction) for coarse-dominated aerosol. This must have implications for lifetime, water uptake, scattering enhancement, and the aerosol radiative effect, which we can not quantify at this moment. Comparison against Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) in situ data results in mean bias and inter-model variations of −35 % ± 25 % and −20 % ± 18 % for SCdry and ACdry, respectively. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ACdry suggests the models will simulate an aerosol single scattering albedo that is too low. The larger underestimate of SCdry than ambient air AOD is consistent with recent findings that models overestimate scattering enhancement due to hygroscopic growth. The broadly consistent negative bias in AOD and surface scattering suggests an underestimate of aerosol radiative effects in current global aerosol models. Considerable inter-model diversity in the simulated optical properties is often found in regions that are, unfortunately, not or only sparsely covered by ground-based observations. This includes, for instance, the Sahara, Amazonia, central Australia, and the South Pacific. This highlights the need for a better site coverage in the observations, which would enable us to better assess the models, but also the performance of satellite products in these regions. Using fine-mode AOD as a proxy for present-day aerosol forcing estimates, our results suggest that models underestimate aerosol forcing by ca. −15 %, however, with a considerably large interquartile range, suggesting a spread between −35 % and +10 %.
Published: 2021
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35. Strong regional influence of climatic forcing datasets on global crop model ensembles

Author: Jonas Jägermeyr, Allard de Wit, Alex C. Ruane, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Wenfeng Liu, Joshua Elliott, Toshichika Iizumi, Gen Sakurai, Nikolay Khabarov, Peter Lawrence, Benjamin Sultan, Stefan Olin, Christoph Müller, Xuhui Wang, Hong Yang, A. Arneth, Juraj Balkovic, Delphine Deryng, Erwin Schmid, Christian Folberth, Robert C. Izaurralde, Meridell Phillips, Cynthia Rosenzweig, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES NEW YORK USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), University of Chicago, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of Geography, University of Edinburgh, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI), Forcing (mathematics), 01 natural sciences, Crop productivity, Crop, 03 medical and health sciences, Crop production, Climatic Forcing Datasets, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Precipitation, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 0303 health sciences, Global and Planetary Change, business.industry, Agroclimate, Extreme events, Forestry, Climate Impacts, PE&RC, Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Climatology, Environmental science, business, Agronomy and Crop Science
Abstract: We present results from the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase I, which aligned 14 global gridded crop models (GGCMs) and 11 climatic forcing datasets (CFDs) in order to understand how the selection of climate data affects simulated historical crop productivity of maize, wheat, rice and soybean. Results show that CFDs demonstrate mean biases and differences in the probability of extreme events, with larger uncertainty around extreme precipitation and in regions where observational data for climate and crop systems are scarce. Countries where simulations correlate highly with reported FAO national production anomalies tend to have high correlations across most CFDs, whose influence we isolate using multi-GGCM ensembles for each CFD. Correlations compare favorably with the climate signal detected in other studies, although production in many countries is not primarily climate-limited (particularly for rice). Bias-adjusted CFDs most often were among the highest model-observation correlations, although all CFDs produced the highest correlation in at least one top-producing country. Analysis of larger multi-CFD-multi-GGCM ensembles (up to 91 members) shows benefits over the use of smaller subset of models in some regions and farming systems, although bigger is not always better. Our analysis suggests that global assessments should prioritize ensembles based on multiple crop models over multiple CFDs as long as a top-performing CFD is utilized for the focus region.
Published: 2021
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36. Methodology to assess the changing risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress under climate change

Author: Tommaso Stella, Jon I. Lizaso, Sravya Mamidanna, C. Gabaldón-Leal, Mohamed Jabloun, Margarita Ruiz-Ramos, Alex C. Ruane, Stefan Fronzek, Pierre Stratonovitch, Brian Collins, Pierre Martre, Roberto Ferrise, Jørgen E. Olesen, Alfredo Rodríguez, Frank Ewert, Marco Bindi, Loic Manceau, Babacar Faye, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Mikhail A. Semenov, Ignacio J. Lorite, Nándor Fodor, Claas Nendel, Heidi Webber, Simone Bregaglio, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague] (CAS), Aarhus University [Aarhus], iCLIMATE Aarhus University Interdisciplinary Centre for Climate Change, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry (DAGRI), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), James Cook University (JCU), UMR 228 Espace-Dev, Espace pour le développement, Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Centre for Agricultural Research [Budapest] (ATK), Hungarian Academy of Sciences (MTA), Instituto Andaluz de Investigación y Formación Agraria y Pesquera (IFAPA), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Potsdam, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Rothamsted Research, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, International Wheat Yield Partnership (IWYP115 Project)., FACCE JPI MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (2815ERA01J)., FACCE MACSUR project by Innovation Fund Denmark and by the SustES project—Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) through Designing Future Wheat [BB/P016855/1] and Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems [NE/N018125/1], FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the Franch National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food and Environment (INRAE)., German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL) through the Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), (2851ERA01J) for FACCE MACSUR, the German Research Foundation under Germany’s Excellence Strategy, EXC-2070—390732324—PhenoRob., Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence (UniFI), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-Avignon Université (AU)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Université de Guyane (UG)-Université des Antilles (UA), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha = University of Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Return period, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, climate change impact, climate risk assessment, crop model, maize, relative distribution, wheat, Yield (finance), Distribution (economics), Climate change, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, IRRIGATION, Range (statistics), skin and connective tissue diseases, Baseline (configuration management), 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, 2. Zero hunger, ENVIRONMENT, 0303 health sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Crop yield, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, BIASES, COMPOUND DRY, 15. Life on land, CHANGE IMPACTS, VARIABILITY, CROP YIELDS, Plant Production Systems, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Environmental science, sense organs, business, Risk assessment
Abstract: International audience; While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.
Published: 2021
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37. An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence

Author: Cristian Proistosescu, Gavin A. Schmidt, Maria Rugenstein, Gavin L. Foster, Julia C. Hargreaves, Pascale Braconnot, Masahiro Watanabe, Kyle C. Armour, Christopher S. Bretherton, Gabriele C. Hegerl, Mark D. Zelinka, Zeke Hausfather, S A Klein, Eelco J. Rohling, Timothy Andrews, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, Piers M. Forster, Steven C. Sherwood, Mark J. Webb, Thorsten Mauritsen, Reto Knutti, James D. Annan, Kate Marvel, A. S. von der Heydt, Joel R. Norris, School of Physics [UNSW Sydney] (UNSW), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Blue Skies Research, University of Washington [Seattle], University of Leeds, University of Edinburgh, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Australian National University (ANU), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Southampton, Department of Earth and Planetary Science [UC Berkeley] (EPS), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Meteorology [Stockholm] (MISU), Stockholm University, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego)
Subjects: Hot Temperature, Bayesian methods, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate, climate sensitivity, global warming, Climate Change, Bayesian probability, Climate Models, Probability density function, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Prior probability, Econometrics, Range (statistics), Sensitivity (control systems), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Robustness (economics), Review Articles, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Mathematics, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Global warming, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, Reproducibility of Results, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Climate sensitivity, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences
Abstract: We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO 2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6–3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3–4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5–95% ranges are 2.3–4.7 K, bounded by 2.0–5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
Published: 2020
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38. The state of climate change vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation research: strengthening knowledge base and community

Author: Rosenzweig, Dr. [NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)]
Published: 2010

39. Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Author: Elizabeth A. Meier, Isaac N. Alou, Eckart Priesack, Bruno Basso, Edward Gérardeaux, Heidi Webber, Eric Justes, Michel Giner, Saseendran S. Anapalli, Delphine Deryng, Marcelo Valadares Galdos, Alex C. Ruane, Bouba Sidi Traoré, Dominique Ripoche, Ward Smith, Babacar Faye, Thomas Gaiser, Patrick Bertuzzi, Folorunso M. Akinseye, Dilys S. MacCarthy, Frédéric Baudron, Alain Ndoli, Brian Grant, Claas Nendel, Kenneth J. Boote, Bernardo Maestrini, Louise Leroux, Christian Baron, Tracy E. Twine, Kokou Adambounou Amouzou, Upendra Singh, Sumit Sinha, Amit Kumar Srivastava, Yi Chen, Michael van der Laan, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Marc Corbeels, Dennis Timlin, M. Elsayed, Anthony M. Whitbread, Fulu Tao, Soo-Hyung Kim, Tesfaye Shiferaw Sida, Bahareh Kamali, Jon I. Lizaso, Myriam Adam, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Peter J. Thorburn, François Affholder, Esther S. Ibrahim, Andrew J. Challinor, Sebastian Gayler, Lajpat R. Ahuja, Gatien N. Falconnier, Cheryl Porter, Fasil Mequanint, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Département Systèmes Biologiques (Cirad-BIOS), University of Ghana, GISS Climate impacts group, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC)-NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Niger] (ICRISAT), International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics [Inde] (ICRISAT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), and Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Mali, 01 natural sciences, exploitant agricole, smallholder farming systems, Leaching (agriculture), uncertainty, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Biomass (ecology), Ecology, U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques, Rendement des cultures, model intercomparison, Fertilizer, Crop simulation model, crop simulation model, Nitrogen, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, Climate Change, Climate change, engineering.material, 010603 evolutionary biology, Zea mays, Petite exploitation agricole, ensemble modelling, Environmental Chemistry, Leaf area index, Fertilizers, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Changement climatique, Agriculture faible niveau intrants, Nutrient management, Modélisation des cultures, Engrais azoté, Modèle de simulation, 15. Life on land, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Soil water, engineering, Système d'exploitation agricole, Environmental science, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology
Abstract: International audience; Smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low-input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi-arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi-arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in-season soil water content from 2-year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (a) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2]; (b) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall; and (c) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model intercomparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation approaches across SSA, because the impact of climate change in low input systems will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with balanced nutrient management.
Published: 2020
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40. Influence of dynamic ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution

Author: J. W. Munger, L. Neil, A. J. Hogg, Fabien Paulot, Ensheng Weng, G. J. P. Correa, Arlene M. Fiore, Timo Vesala, Larry W. Horowitz, Benjamin Loubet, Allen H. Goldstein, Silvano Fares, Johan Uddling, Ignacio Goded, Ivan Mammarella, Colleen B. Baublitz, Carsten Gruening, Olivia E. Clifton, Patrick Stella, Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences [New York], Columbia University [New York], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program [Princeton] (AOS Program), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-Princeton University, Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management [Berkeley] (ESPM), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), University of Michigan System, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), University of Helsinki, Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences (SEAS), Harvard University [Cambridge], Hemmera, Ausenco, Sciences pour l'Action et le Développement : Activités, Produits, Territoires (SADAPT), Department of Biological and Environmental Sciences [Gothenburg], University of Gothenburg (GU), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Science Foundation, NOAA's Climate Program Office's Atmospheric Chemistry, Carbon Cycle, and Climate program, National Center for Atmospheric Research, European Union (EU), INAR Physics, Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles, Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), and Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences)
Subjects: 1171 Geosciences, FLUXES, Atmospheric Science, Ozone, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, AIR-QUALITY, air pollution, Air pollution, Coal combustion products, nonstomatal deposition, SOIL-MOISTURE, Aethalometer, Atmospheric sciences, medicine.disease_cause, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, dry deposition, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), medicine, Mass concentration (chemistry), Tropospheric ozone, earth system modeling, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY, Air quality index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, tropospheric ozone, Radiative forcing, DECIDUOUS FOREST, MODEL, LAND-COVER, Geophysics, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Space and Planetary Science, stomatal conductance, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, SURFACE OZONE, Environmental science
Abstract: Identifying the contributions of chemistry and transport to observed ozone pollution using regional-to-global models relies on accurate representation of ozone dry deposition. We use a recently developed configuration of the NOAA GFDL chemistry-climate model - in which the atmosphere and land are coupled through dry deposition-to investigate the influence of ozone dry deposition on ozone pollution over northern midlatitudes. In our model, deposition pathways are tied to dynamic terrestrial processes, such as photosynthesis and water cycling through the canopy and soil. Small increases in winter deposition due to more process-based representation of snow and deposition to surfaces reduce hemispheric-scale ozone throughout the lower troposphere by 5-12 ppb, improving agreement with observations relative to a simulation with the standard configuration for ozone dry deposition. Declining snow cover by the end of the 21st-century tempers the previously identified influence of rising methane on winter ozone. Dynamic dry deposition changes summer surface ozone by -4 to +7 ppb. While previous studies emphasize the importance of uptake by plant stomata, new diagnostic tracking of depositional pathways reveals a widespread impact of nonstomatal deposition on ozone pollution. Daily variability in both stomatal and nonstomatal deposition contribute to daily variability in ozone pollution. Twenty-first century changes in summer deposition result from a balance among changes in individual pathways, reflecting differing responses to both high carbon dioxide (through plant physiology versus biomass accumulation) and water availability. Our findings highlight a need for constraints on the processes driving ozone dry deposition to test representation in regional-to-global models.
Published: 2020
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41. TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI): motivations and protocol version 1.0

Author: T. J. Fauchez, M. Turbet, E. T. Wolf, I. Boutle, M. J. Way, A. D. Del Genio, N. J. Mayne, K. Tsigaridis, R. K. Kopparapu, J. Yang, F. Forget, A. Mandell, S. D. Domagal Goldman, Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology and Research (GESTAR), Universities Space Research Association (USRA)-NASA, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), School of Physics and Astronomy [Exeter], University of Exeter, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Peking], Peking University [Beijing], NASA-Universities Space Research Association (USRA), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, FOS: Physical sciences, Context (language use), [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Astrobiology, Atmosphere, Planet, 0103 physical sciences, Extremely large telescope, 010303 astronomy & astrophysics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth and Planetary Astrophysics (astro-ph.EP), Transit-timing variation, James Webb Space Telescope, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Astrophysics::Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, 16. Peace & justice, Exoplanet, lcsh:Geology, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Circumstellar habitable zone, Astrophysics - Earth and Planetary Astrophysics
Abstract: Upcoming telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), or the Extremely Large Telescope (ELTs), may soon be able to characterize, through transmission, emission or reflection spectroscopy, the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets orbiting nearby M dwarfs. One of the most promising candidates is the late M dwarf system TRAPPIST-1 which has seven known transiting planets for which Transit Timing Variation (TTV) measurements suggest that they are terrestrial in nature, with a possible enrichment in volatiles. Among these seven planets, TRAPPIST-1e seems to be the most promising candidate to have habitable surface conditions, receiving ~66 % of the Earth's incident radiation, and thus needing only modest greenhouse gas inventories to raise surface temperatures to allow surface liquid water to exist. TRAPPIST-1e is therefore one of the prime targets for JWST atmospheric characterization. In this context, the modeling of its potential atmosphere is an essential step prior to observation. Global Climate Models (GCMs) offer the most detailed way to simulate planetary atmospheres. However, intrinsic differences exist between GCMs which can lead to different climate prediction and thus observability of gas and/or cloud features in transmission and thermal emission spectra. Such differences should preferably be known prior to observations. In this paper we present a protocol to inter-compare planetary GCMs. Four testing cases are considered for TRAPPIST-1e but the methodology is applicable to other rocky exoplanets in the Habitable Zone. The four test cases included two land planets composed with a modern Earth and pure CO2 atmospheres, respectively, and two aqua planets with the same atmospheric compositions. Currently, there are four participating models (LMDG, ROCKE-3D, ExoCAM, UM), however this protocol is intended to let other teams participate as well., Accepted and published in Geoscientific Model Development (GMD)
Published: 2020
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42. Equilibrium climate sensitivity estimated by equilibrating climate models

Author: Chao Li, Long Cao, Maria Rugenstein, Gavin A. Schmidt, Olivier Geoffroy, Thorsten Mauritsen, Timothy Andrews, Shuting Yang, Gokhan Danabasoglu, Thomas L. Frölicher, Jonathan M. Gregory, Jean-Louis Dufresne, David Paynter, Reto Knutti, Jonah Bloch-Johnson, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, NCAS-Climate [Reading], Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR)-University of Reading (UOR), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Meteorology [Stockholm] (MISU), Stockholm University, Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), School of Earth Sciences, Zhejiang University (ZJU), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute [Kashiwa-shi] (AORI), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Psychology [York, UK], University of York [York, UK], State Key Laboratory of Acoustics, Institute of Acoustics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Center for Climate System Research [Kashiwa] (CCSR), and Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Extrapolation, Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, General Circulation Model, Radiative transfer, Range (statistics), Spatial ecology, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate sensitivity, Climate model, Earth and Related Environmental Sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial‐length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the mid‐latitudes. Time‐dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.\ud \ud \ud Key points\ud \ud \ud \ud 27 simulations of 15 general circulation models are integrated to near equilibrium\ud All models simulate a higher equilibrium warming than predicted by using extrapolation methods\ud Tropics and mid‐latitudes dominate the change of the feedback parameter on different timescales on millennial timescales
Published: 2020
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43. Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative

Author: C. Orbe, D. A. Plummer, D. W. Waugh, H. Yang, P. Jöckel, D. E. Kinnison, B. Josse, V. Marecal, M. Deushi, N. L. Abraham, A. T. Archibald, M. P. Chipperfield, S. Dhomse, W. Feng, S. Bekki, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Morton K. Blaustein Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences [Baltimore], Johns Hopkins University (JHU), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), DLR Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre (IPA), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Oberpfaffenhofen-Wessling] (DLR), Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modeling Laboratory (ACOML), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Department of Chemistry [Cambridge, UK], University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, University of Leeds, STRATO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NASA (grant no. NNX14AP58G), National Science Foundation (grant no. AGS-1403676)., Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California-University of California, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Flow (psychology), Magnitude (mathematics), Zonal and meridional, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Troposphere, lcsh:Chemistry, symbols.namesake, Erdsystem-Modellierung, Chemistry Climate Modelling, Stratosphere, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-AO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics [physics.ao-ph], EMAC, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Eulerian path, Specified Dynamics, lcsh:QC1-999, Amplitude, Circulation (fluid dynamics), lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, MESSy. CCMI, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, symbols, ESCiMo, Environmental science, lcsh:Physics
Abstract: We provide an overview of the REF-C1SD specified-dynamics experiment that was conducted as part of phase 1 of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). The REF-C1SD experiment, which consisted of mainly nudged general circulation models (GCMs) constrained with (re)analysis fields, was designed to examine the influence of the large-scale circulation on past trends in atmospheric composition. The REF-C1SD simulations were produced across various model frameworks and are evaluated in terms of how well they represent different measures of the dynamical and transport circulations. In the troposphere there are large (∼40 %) differences in the climatological mean distributions, seasonal cycle amplitude, and trends of the meridional and vertical winds. In the stratosphere there are similarly large (∼50 %) differences in the magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle amplitude of the transformed Eulerian mean circulation and among various chemical and idealized tracers. At the same time, interannual variations in nearly all quantities are very well represented, compared to the underlying reanalyses. We show that the differences in magnitude, trends and seasonal cycle are not related to the use of different reanalysis products; rather, we show they are associated with how the simulations were implemented, by which we refer both to how the large-scale flow was prescribed and to biases in the underlying free-running models. In most cases these differences are shown to be as large or even larger than the differences exhibited by free-running simulations produced using the exact same models, which are also shown to be more dynamically consistent. Overall, our results suggest that care must be taken when using specified-dynamics simulations to examine the influence of large-scale dynamics on composition.
Published: 2020
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44. Bias in CMIP6 models as compared to observed regional dimming and brightening

Author: Kine Onsum Moseid, Ingeborg Rian Julsrud, Trude Storelvmo, Guillaume Gastineau, Pierre Nabat, Susanne E. Bauer, Martin Wild, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Michael Schulz, Jason N. S. Cole, Toshihiko Takemura, Naga Oshima, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics [Fukuoka] (RIAM), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Groupe de Météorologie de Grande Échelle et Climat (GMGEC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kyushu University, Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Coupled model intercomparison project, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Cloud cover, Perturbation (astronomy), [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:QC1-999, Aerosol, Earth system science, Atmosphere, lcsh:Chemistry, lcsh:QD1-999, 13. Climate action, Downwelling, Environmental science, Shortwave radiation, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, lcsh:Physics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.
Published: 2020
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45. Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses

Author: Thierry Lacombe, Benjamin I. Cook, Cornelis van Leeuwen, Elizabeth M. Wolkovich, Amber Parker, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, Kimberly A. Nicholas, Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri, Universidad de Alcalá - University of Alcalá (UAH), Harvard University [Cambridge], Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Columbia University [New York], Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Lincoln University, Ecophysiologie et Génomique Fonctionnelle de la Vigne (UMR EGFV), Université de Bordeaux (UB)-Institut des Sciences de la Vigne et du Vin (ISVV)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Lund University Centre for Sustainability Studies (LUCSUS), and University of British Columbia (UBC)
Subjects: Climate Change, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate change, phenology, Intraspecific competition, Crop, 03 medical and health sciences, agrobiodiversity, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, Vitis, Cultivar, resilience, climate change adaptation, 030304 developmental biology, agriculture, 2. Zero hunger, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, Agroforestry, business.industry, Phenology, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Biodiversity, 15. Life on land, Adaptation, Physiological, Geography, SI Correction, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Agricultural biodiversity, Seasons, business, Diversity (business)
Abstract: Agrobiodiversity—the variation within agricultural plants, animals, and practices—is often suggested as a way to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on crops [S. A. Woodet al.,Trends Ecol. Evol.30, 531–539 (2015)]. Recently, increasing research and attention has focused on exploiting the intraspecific genetic variation within a crop [Hajjaret al.,Agric. Ecosyst. Environ.123, 261–270 (2008)], despite few relevant tests of how this diversity modifies agricultural forecasts. Here, we quantify how intraspecific diversity, via cultivars, changes global projections of growing areas. We focus on a crop that spans diverse climates, has the necessary records, and is clearly impacted by climate change: winegrapes (predominantlyVitis viniferasubspeciesvinifera). We draw on long-term French records to extrapolate globally for 11 cultivars (varieties) with high diversity in a key trait for climate change adaptation—phenology. We compared scenarios where growers shift to more climatically suitable cultivars as the climate warms or do not change cultivars. We find that cultivar diversity more than halved projected losses of current winegrowing areas under a 2 °C warming scenario, decreasing areas lost from 56 to 24%. These benefits are more muted at higher warming scenarios, reducing areas lost by a third at 4 °C (85% versus 58%). Our results support the potential of in situ shifting of cultivars to adapt agriculture to climate change—including in major winegrowing regions—as long as efforts to avoid higher warming scenarios are successful.
Published: 2020
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46. Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Author: Fanghua Wu, Jasmin G. John, Jessica Y. Luo, Hongmei Li, Marion Gehlen, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Yool, Anastasia Romanou, Olivier Aumont, Michio Watanabe, Sarah Berthet, Yeray Santana-Falcón, Lester Kwiatkowski, Alessandro Tagliabue, John P. Dunne, Yohei Takano, Charles A. Stock, Hiroyuki Tsujino, James R. Christian, Roland Séférian, Jörg Schwinger, Hideyuki Nakano, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Tongwen Wu, Matthew C. Long, Julien Palmieri, Akitomo Yamamoto, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Oceanography Centre [Southampton] (NOC), University of Southampton, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), School of Environmental Sciences [Liverpool], University of Liverpool, Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Meteorological Research Institute [Tsukuba] (MRI), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), Beijing Climate Centre (BCC), China Meteorological Administration (CMA), H2020 COMFORT project under the grant agreement No 820989, European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), European Project: 817578,TRIATLAS(2019), European Project: 820989,H2020-EU.3.5.1.,COMFORT(2019), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Coupled model intercomparison project, Biogeochemical cycle, Current generation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Earth science, Climate change, Biogeochemistry, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, Submarine groundwater discharge, Earth system science, Biogeochemistry-Climate Feedbacks, Model Performance, Component (UML), Marine Biogeochemistry, Environmental science, Carbon Cycle and Climate (K Zickfeld, JR Melton and N Lovenduski, Section Editors), CMIP5, 14. Life underwater, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, CMIP6, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).
Published: 2020
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47. The GGCMI Phase 2 experiment: global gridded crop model simulations under uniform changes in CO2 temperature, water, and nitrogen levels (protocol version 1.0)

Author: Franke, James A., Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Ruane, Alex C., Jägermeyr, Jonas, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Dury, Marie, Falloon, Pete D., Folberth, Christian, François, Louis, Hank, Tobias, Hoffmann, Munir, Izaurralde, R. Cesar, Jacquemin, Ingrid, Jones, Curtis, Khabarov, Nikolay, Koch, Marian, Li, Michelle, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Phillips, Meridel, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Reddy, Ashwan, Wang, Xuhui, Williams, Karina, Zabel, Florian, Moyer, Elisabeth J., Department of Geosciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, United States, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Chicago, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Comenius University in Bratislava, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Peking University [Beijing], ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Unité de Modélisation du Climat et des Cycles Biogéochimiques (UMCCB), Université de Liège, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Tropical Plant Prodution and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, INSTITUTE OF LANDSCAPE MATTER DYNAMICS LEIBNIZ CENTRE FOR AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE AND LAND USE RESEARCH ZALF MUNCHEBERG DEU, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Tropical Plant Production and Agricultural Systems Modelling (TROPAGS), University of Chicago, Department of Statistics, Eawag, Swiss Federal Institute of Aquatic Science and Technology, CH-8600 Dübendorf, Switzerland and ETH Zürich, Universitätstrasse 16, CH-8092 Zürich, Switzerland, DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY AND ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE LUND UNIVERSITY SWE, NASA GODDARD INSTITUTE FOR SPACE STUDIES NEW YORK USA, Columbia University [New York], School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham [Birmingham], LUDWIG MAXIMILIANS UNIVERSITAT MUNCHEN DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MUNICH DEU, European Project: 641811,H2020,H2020-WATER-2014-two-stage,IMPREX(2015), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Georg-August-University [Göttingen]
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: Concerns about food security under climate change motivate efforts to better understand future changes in crop yields. Process-based crop models, which represent plant physiological and soil processes, are necessary tools for this purpose since they allow representing future climate and management conditions not sampled in the historical record and new locations to which cultivation may shift. However, process-based crop models differ in many critical details, and their responses to different interacting factors remain only poorly understood. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) Phase 2 experiment, an activity of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), is designed to provide a systematic parameter sweep focused on climate change factors and their interaction with overall soil fertility, to allow both evaluating model behavior and emulating model responses in impact assessment tools. In this paper we describe the GGCMI Phase 2 experimental protocol and its simulation data archive. A total of 12 crop models simulate five crops with systematic uniform perturbations of historical climate, varying CO2, temperature, water supply, and applied nitrogen (“CTWN”) for rainfed and irrigated agriculture, and a second set of simulations represents a type of adaptation by allowing the adjustment of growing season length. We present some crop yield results to illustrate general characteristics of the simulations and potential uses of the GGCMI Phase 2 archive. For example, in cases without adaptation, modeled yields show robust decreases to warmer temperatures in almost all regions, with a nonlinear dependence that means yields in warmer baseline locations have greater temperature sensitivity. Inter-model uncertainty is qualitatively similar across all the four input dimensions but is largest in high-latitude regions where crops may be grown in the future.
Published: 2020
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48. Instrumentation for Producing Groundbreaking Planetary & Astrophysical Science on an Interstellar Probe Mission (Planetary Science White Paper)

Author: Lisse, Carey, Zemcov, Michael, Mandt, Kathleen, Runyon, Kirby, Ahrens, Caitlin, Beichman, Chas, Boc, James, Brandt, Pontus, Cahill, Josh, Cocoros, Alice, Draine, Bruce, Harman, Chester E., Horanyi, Mihaly, Izenberg, Noam, Lallement, Rosine, Levasseur-Regourd, Anny Chantal, McNutt, Ralph, Poppe, Andrew R., Paul, Michael, Rymer, Abigail, Sterken, Veerle, Szalay, Jamey, Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory [Laurel, MD] (APL), University of Arkansas [Fayetteville], Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), NASA-California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Department of Astrophysical Sciences [Princeton], Princeton University, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics [Boulder] (LASP), University of Colorado [Boulder], Galaxies, Etoiles, Physique, Instrumentation (GEPI), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire de Paris, Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PLANETO - LATMOS, Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS), Space Sciences Laboratory [Berkeley] (SSL), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, and Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)
Subjects: Physics::Space Physics, Astrophysics::Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, Astrophysics::Solar and Stellar Astrophysics, Astrophysics::Earth and Planetary Astrophysics, Astrophysics::Galaxy Astrophysics, [SDU.ASTR.IM]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph]/Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysic [astro-ph.IM]
Abstract: Planetary Science White Paper; Astrophysical measurements at distances outside of 50 AU from the Sun enable transformative science that are impossible to obtain from inner system platforms, such as a: Complete census of all interplanetary dust and ice permeating the solar system, and direct comparison of its distribution to exo-circumstellar disks; Stable time-domain astronomy of exoplanet transit lightcurves, exoplanet microlensing events, supernova explosions, and black hole mergers; and Measurement of all the light created by planets, stars, and galaxies over the entire history of the Universe. A single powerful instrument could be used to obtain these measurements, and to perform New Horizons-style flybys of dwarf planets & KBOs, potentially doubling the number of these kinds of worlds that have been visited and studied in great detail [1]. Though likely transformative, opportunities to fly instrumentation capable of these measurements are rare, and a mission to the distant solar system that includes instrumentation expressly designed to perform astrophysical science has never been flown. The proposed Interstellar Probe Mission (ISP; [2-5]) provides just such an opportunity for launch in 2030. In this White Paper, we describe an instrument concept to ride along on a Heliospheric Division Interstellar Probe Mission that would enable groundbreaking science via cross-divisional collaboration and cooperation within NASA (c.f. [6]).
Published: 2020

49. Quantifying the Importance of Rapid Adjustments for Global Precipitation Changes

Author: Olivier Boucher, Dagmar Fläschner, Brian J. Soden, Thomas Richardson, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, G. Myhre, Duncan Watson-Parris, Ryan J. Kramer, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Christopher J. Smith, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Camilla Weum Stjern, Philip Stier, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Toshihiko Takemura, Timothy Andrews, Piers M. Forster, Gregory Faluvegi, Drew Shindell, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Øivind Hodnebrog, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Institut de biologie et chimie des protéines [Lyon] (IBCP), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Norwegian Meteorological Institute, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics [Oxford] (AOPP), University of Oxford [Oxford], Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], University of Leeds, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Physics [Imperial College London], Imperial College London, Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of Oxford, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics [Fukuoka] (RIAM), Kyushu University, European Project: 724602,Recap, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), and Kyushu University [Fukuoka]
Subjects: Global Climate Models, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Radiative cooling, Climate, Climate change, Precipitation, Sensible heat, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, Solar irradiance, 01 natural sciences, Atmosphere, Paleoceanography, MD Multidisciplinary, Research Letter, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Global Change, radiative kernels, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, precipitation changes, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Radiative Processes, climate drivers, PDRMIP, Research Letters, Geophysics, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Atmospheric Processes, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Climate model, sense organs, Hydrology, Clouds and Cloud Feedbacks, human activities, Water vapor
Abstract: Different climate drivers influence precipitation in different ways. Here we use radiative kernels to understand the influence of rapid adjustment processes on precipitation in climate models. Rapid adjustments are generally triggered by the initial heating or cooling of the atmosphere from an external climate driver. For precipitation changes, rapid adjustments due to changes in temperature, water vapor, and clouds are most important. In this study we have investigated five climate drivers (CO2, CH4, solar irradiance, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols). The fast precipitation responses to a doubling of CO2 and a 10‐fold increase in black carbon are found to be similar, despite very different instantaneous changes in the radiative cooling, individual rapid adjustments, and sensible heating. The model diversity in rapid adjustments is smaller for the experiment involving an increase in the solar irradiance compared to the other climate driver perturbations, and this is also seen in the precipitation changes., Key Points Separation of instantaneous and rapid adjustment contributions to precipitation changesContributions of rapid adjustments to precipitation changes differ substantially between climate driversRadiative kernels are applied to understand individual rapid adjustment terms
Published: 2018
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50. The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison phase 1 simulation dataset

Author: Müller, Christoph, Elliott, Joshua, Kelly, David, Arneth, Almut, Balkovic, Juraj, Ciais, Philippe, Deryng, Delphine, Folberth, Christian, Hoek, Steven, Izaurralde, Roberto C., Jones, Curtis D., Khabarov, Nikolay, Lawrence, Peter, Liu, Wenfeng, Olin, Stefan, Pugh, Thomas A. M., Reddy, Ashwan, Rosenzweig, Cynthia, Ruane, Alex C., Sakurai, Gen, Schmid, Erwin, Skalsky, Rastislav, Wang, Xuhui, de Wit, Allard, Yang, Hong, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Chicago, Department of Mathematics, University of Manitoba [Winnipeg], Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, affiliation inconnue, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Centre for Geo-Information, ALTERRA, Department of Geographical Sciences [College Park], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Partenaires INRAE, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Soil Science and Conservation Research Institute, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Lund University [Lund], National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)
Subjects: Statistics and Probability, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Data Descriptor, Library and Information Sciences, PE&RC, Computer Science Applications, Education, Environmental sciences, Earth sciences, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, ddc:550, Life Science, Computational models, lcsh:Q, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, lcsh:Science, Plant sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Agroecology, Information Systems
Abstract: The Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI) phase 1 dataset of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) provides an unprecedentedly large dataset of crop model simulations covering the global ice-free land surface. The dataset consists of annual data fields at a spatial resolution of 0.5 arc-degree longitude and latitude. Fourteen crop modeling groups provided output for up to 11 historical input datasets spanning 1901 to 2012, and for up to three different management harmonization levels. Each group submitted data for up to 15 different crops and for up to 14 output variables. All simulations were conducted for purely rainfed and near-perfectly irrigated conditions on all land areas irrespective of whether the crop or irrigation system is currently used there. With the publication of the GGCMI phase 1 dataset we aim to promote further analyses and understanding of crop model performance, potential relationships between productivity and environmental impacts, and insights on how to further improve global gridded crop model frameworks. We describe dataset characteristics and individual model setup narratives., Design Type(s)modeling and simulation objective • data integration objective • software variation design • time series designMeasurement Type(s)cultivated environmentTechnology Type(s)computational modeling techniqueFactor Type(s)crop • atmospheric weather • atmospheric wind speed • atmospheric water vapour • atmospheric carbon dioxide • agricultural environmental material • agricultural featureSample Characteristic(s)land Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data (ISA-Tab format)
Published: 2019
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