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Crowdfunding platforms are believed to create a more equal-opportunity environment for fundraising by removing entrance barriers found in traditional entrepreneurial markets. Our work investigates whether in creating more equal opportunities for entrepreneurs to enter the market, crowdfunding platforms also create a more equal distribution of funds across ventures. To this end, we utilized a natural experiment in the form of a policy change on Kickstarter.com that resulted in opening the market to more players. Using platform-level analysis, we show that opening the platform shifted demand toward the head of the distribution: More funds and backers became concentrated in a smaller number of head-offers (the superstar effect). Using individual backer-level analysis, we show that these changes in demand distribution are likely to have resulted from changes in investors' investment behavior, beyond changes in the composition of the demand side (that is, changes in the types of investors entering the market). Together, our results suggest that efforts to level the playing field in crowdfunding platforms can ultimately result in a less equitable distribution of funds across market participants, and drive investors to focus their investments on a smaller set of campaigns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper empirically investigates how review moderation transparency affects the volume, length, and negativity of reviews. A change to the Yelp platform in 2010, introducing review moderation and displaying filtered reviews, created a natural experiment. We used a panel dataset of online reviews from the same set of restaurants on both the Yelp and TripAdvisor platforms in a difference-in-differences (DID) model to test how review moderation transparency affected our outcome variables. We found that increasing review moderation transparency negatively affects review volume but positively affects review negativity. The results also indicate that providing review moderation transparency reduces review length, especially for reviews with positive sentiment. Our findings suggest that providing review moderation transparency induces users to invest less effort in review contributions, especially when they are submitting positive reviews. We discuss the theoretical and practical implications of these results as they relate to the design and use of online review platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Creating activity-friendly communities (AFCs) is an important strategy to increase physical activity (PA). While cross-sectional links between community environments and PA are well documented, their causal relationships remain insufficiently explored. Methods: Using the accelerometer and survey data collected from adults who moved to an AFC (cases) and similar non-AFC-residing adults who did not move (comparisons), this pre–post, case-comparison study examines if moving to an AFC increases PA. Data came from 115 participants (cases = 37, comparisons = 78) from Austin, Texas, who completed 2 waves of 1-weeklong data collection. Difference-in-difference analyses and fixed-effect models were used to test the significance of the pre–post differences in moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) between cases and comparisons, for the full sample and the subsample of 37 pairs matched in key covariates using the Propensity Score Matching method. Results: Average treatment effect generated based on Propensity Score Matching and difference-in-difference showed that moving to this AFC led to an average of 10.88 additional minutes of daily MVPA (76.16 weekly minutes, P =.015). Fixed-effect models echoed the result with an increase of 10.39 minutes of daily MVPA after moving to the AFC. We also found that case participants who were less active at baseline and had higher income increased their MVPA more than their counterparts. Conclusions: This study showed that, among our study sample, moving to an AFC increased residents' PA significantly when compared to their premove level and the comparison group. This causal evidence suggests the potential of AFCs as sustainable interventions for PA promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While monetary rewards have been widely used by online platforms to motivate user-generated content (UGC) contributions, users may not always demonstrate the expected behaviors. Unintended consequences of reward policies, exemplified by unchanged or reduced UGC contributions, may occur. Through two natural experiments, this study investigates the implications of providing users with an incentive structure that rewards users' continued contribution according to the volume of UGC. Using a unique data set on two completion-contingent incentive programs from a popular online aesthetic medicine platform, we examine user responses to reward thresholds. We found that after users reach a threshold to obtain a monetary reward, they are less likely to continue contributing UGC, suggesting a minimal-effort effect. Our findings indicate that social approval from peers helps to mitigate unintended user responses to monetary reward policies. We also observed that monetary rewards primarily improve the quality and website traffic of low- to moderate-quality contributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article contributes to knowledge of how environmental disasters affect ecomodernist beliefs, i.e. the view that technology can solve environmental problems. Such beliefs in the general public are key to build mass support for environmental policies relying on large‐scale scientific solutions, but their stability is poorly understood. We argue that ecomodernist beliefs are more malleable than assumed and can be altered through events that highlight risks arising from a reliance on technological solutions. This study leverages that the Fukushima‐Daiichi accident happened during the fieldwork of a 2011 public opinion survey in Israel. The analysis suggests that ecomodernist beliefs were negatively affected by this unexpected tragedy. Consistent with expectations, we report stronger impact among people with more education. We document similar effects from a controlled survey experiment in the US and Israel, suggesting that these results are generalizable. Our findings are relevant beyond rare environmental disasters as they have implications for how ecomodernist beliefs might be formed and changed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: The causal effect of successive population-wide lockdowns in response to increased COVID-19 cases on mental health has yet to be examined using robust methods. A natural experiment design underpinned by objective data can improve our understanding surrounding the definitive impact of social distancing restrictions. Methods: The study employed a natural experiment design underpinned by objective data. Health service cost for visits to general practitioners and psychologists and medication dispensing costs served as objective measures of mental health. Difference-in-difference (DID) estimators, which in this study quantify differences in spending changes between groups over time, were produced based on three comparisons: Victoria 2020 lockdown comparison, Victoria 2021 lockdown comparison, and New South Wales (NSW) 2021 lockdown comparison. Specifically, differences in public health service spending during lockdown periods and the same timeframe in 2019 for Victoria and NSW, and control groups (remaining states and territories), were compared. Results: Positive estimator values indicate that public health service spending for Victoria and NSW increased more during lockdown periods compared to control states and territories. The Victorian lockdowns of 2020 and 2021, but not the NSW lockdown of 2021, resulted in increased public spending for general practitioner mental health consults (2020 DID estimator: $8498.96 [95% CI $4012.84, $12,373.57], 2021 DID estimator: $6630.06 [95% CI $41.27, $13,267.20], all monetary values in AUD$) and short visits to psychologists (2020 DID estimator: $628.82 [95% CI $466.25, $796.00], 2021 DID estimator: $230.11 [95% CI $47.52, $373.98]). The first Victorian lockdown in 2020 and the NSW lockdown in 2021 resulted in greater spending on short visits to clinical psychologists. Spending on long visits to psychologists and clinical psychologists and medication spending did not change. Conclusions: Strict lockdowns can have an adverse impact on population mental health. The impact is particularly evident in those who have a history of previous mental health concerns but does not necessitate extra use of medications, suggesting that psychological care can address the adverse impact of the lockdowns. What is known about the topic? Previous research varied in methodology, using self-reports and healthcare data to understand COVID-19 social distancing public health measures' effects on mental health. What does this paper add? This study introduces robust, objective data via a natural experiment design, examining the impact of successive lockdowns on mental health service usage and medication expenditures in specific Australian regions. What are the implications for practitioners? Findings highlight the need for flexible mental health services that can swiftly respond to increased demands during prolonged restrictions, without necessarily increasing medication use, guiding future policy and resource allocation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic and associated lockdowns disrupted health care worldwide. High-income countries observed a decrease in preterm births during lockdowns, but maternal pregnancy–related outcomes were also likely affected. This study investigates the effect of the first COVID-19 lockdown (March–June 2020) on provision of maternity care and maternal pregnancy–related outcomes in the Netherlands. National quasi-experimental study. Multiple linked national registries were used, and all births from a gestational age of 24+0 weeks in 2010–2020 were included. In births starting in midwife-led primary care, we assessed the effect of lockdown on provision of care. In the general pregnant population, the impact on characteristics of labour and maternal morbidity was assessed. A difference-in-regression-discontinuity design was used to derive causal estimates for the year 2020. A total of 1,039,728 births were included. During the lockdown, births to women who started labour in midwife-led primary care (49%) more often ended at home (27% pre-lockdown, +10% [95% confidence interval: +7%, +13%]). A small decrease was seen in referrals towards obstetrician-led care during labour (46%, −3% [−5%,−0%]). In the overall group, no significant change was seen in induction of labour (27%, +1% [−1%, +3%]). We found no significant changes in the incidence of emergency caesarean section (9%, −1% [−2%, +0%]), obstetric anal sphincter injury (2%, +0% [−0%, +1%]), episiotomy (21%, −0% [−2%, +1%]), or post-partum haemorrhage: >1000 ml (6%, −0% [−1%, +1%]). During the first COVID-19 lockdown in the Netherlands, a substantial increase in homebirths was seen. There was no evidence for changed available maternal outcomes, suggesting that a maternity care system with a strong midwife-led primary care system may flexibly and safely adapt to external disruptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A growing number of birth interventions had led to a concern for potential health consequences. This study investigates the consequences of earlier routine labor induction. It exploits a natural experiment caused by the introduction of new Danish obstetric guidelines in 2011. Consequently, routine labor induction was moved forward from 14 to 10–13 days past the expected due date (EDD) and extended antenatal surveillance was introduced from 7 days past the EDD. Using administrative data, I find that affected mothers on average had a 9–11 percentage points (32%–38%) higher risk of being induced the following years. Yet, mother and child short‐ and medium‐term morbidity were largely unaffected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that police assaults reduce trust in the police among the group affected by the incidents. As the phenomenon of plural policing emerges and the actors in policing become intertwined, blurring the boundaries between them, analysis of the impact of security guards’ actions becomes warranted. This paper investigates the impact of two security guard incidents on trust in the police in Sweden, a high-trust society, using the Unexpected Events During Survey Design, with data from the European Social Survey Wave 9. The results can be interpreted as a causal relationship and point to the fact that immigrant women’s trust in the police significantly reduced as a result of incidents, raising the importance of the fact that the immigrant group is not homogeneous and that those who suffer multiple stigmatisation may be particularly vulnerable to incidents of abuse. Furthermore, our findings highlight the potential for spill-over effects within plural policing even in high-trust societies, and the need for continuous cooperation among the actors in the security network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), introduced in Central London in April 2019, aims to enhance air quality and improve public health. The Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) study evaluates the impact of the ULEZ on children's health. This analysis focuses on the one-year impacts on the shift towards active travel to school. Methods: CHILL is a prospective parallel cohort study of ethnically diverse children, aged 6–9 years attending 84 primary schools within or with catchment areas encompassing London's ULEZ (intervention) and Luton (non-intervention area). Baseline (2018/19) and one-year follow-up (2019/20) data were collected at school visits from 1992 (58%) children who reported their mode of travel to school 'today' (day of assessment). Multilevel logistic regressions were performed to analyse associations between the introduction of the ULEZ and the likelihood of switching from inactive to active travel modes, and vice-versa. Interactions between intervention group status and pre-specified effect modifiers were also explored. Results: Among children who took inactive modes at baseline, 42% of children in London and 20% of children in Luton switched to active modes. For children taking active modes at baseline, 5% of children in London and 21% of children in Luton switched to inactive modes. Relative to the children in Luton, children in London were more likely to have switched from inactive to active modes (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.21–10.92). Children in the intervention group were also less likely to switch from active to inactive modes (OR 0.11, 0.05–0.24). Moderator analyses showed that children living further from school were more likely to switch from inactive to active modes (OR 6.06,1.87–19.68) compared to those living closer (OR 1.43, 0.27–7.54). Conclusions: Implementation of clean air zones can increase uptake of active travel to school and was particularly associated with more sustainable and active travel in children living further from school. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the impact of background binaural music on educational attainment within the context of a natural experiment. In a university business school, 73 undergraduate students participated in this study, providing a maximum of 707 observations at 16 points in time. The students were divided into three groups (Microeconomics A and B, and International Economics) and were further categorized into control and experimental groups at different stages of the courses. All students attended classes from January to June 2021, with the addition of binaural music as a treatment in either the first or second part of the courses (divided into three parts). After each lecture, students completed a multiple-choice quiz designed to assess their learning during the lecture. Utilizing t-tests for mean comparisons and panel data econometric techniques, the study found that the scores of the experimental groups were significantly higher than those of the control groups. Overall, binaural music was observed to increase quiz scores by 8 to 20 basis points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural disasters are likely to increase in the near future. How does the emergence of such events influence voting behavior? While the literature has focused on the electoral repercussions after disaster has already struck, we investigate whether imminent disaster influences vote choice. We study the effect of the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic on electoral choice in a setting that allows for causal identification: the local elections in Germany's southern state Bavaria in March 2020, where, at the time of the elections, only an as-if random sample of localities had recorded cases of COVID-19. We find that initial local outbreaks favored the political party governing at the state level and hurt the far right. These findings are most likely driven by a 'strategic alignment' mechanism, whereby voters choose the party or candidate they believe is best placed to help them through the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to analyze the effect of prenatal exposure to certain nutritional disruptions in utero on human capital formation. In order to resolve the endogeneity driven by maternal dietary deficiencies, we use the Islamic holy month of Ramadan, during which observers abstain from eating and drinking entirely from sunrise to sunset, as a natural experiment to assess the effects of fetal malnourishment on educational and labor market outcomes. We compare schooling and employment measures of individuals who are prenatally exposed to Ramadan with those who are not using the 2016 round of the Turkish Family Structure Survey dataset. Our results indicate that men who are exposed to Ramadan in utero in the first or third trimester complete 0.53 fewer years of schooling and are less likely to obtain middle school, high school, and college degrees. These effects are stronger when Ramadan coincides with summer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Globally alcohol consumption is a leading risk factor for premature death and disability and is associated with crime, social and economic consequences. Local communities may be able to play a role in addressing alcohol-related issues in their area. Objectives: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost–benefit of an asset-based community development approach to reducing alcohol-related harm and understand the context and factors that enable or hinder its implementation. Design: A mixed-methods evaluation. Area-level quasi-experimental trial analysed using four different evaluation methods (a stepped-wedge design where each area was a control until it entered the intervention, comparison to matched local/national controls and comparison to synthetic controls), alongside process and economic evaluations. Setting: Ten local authorities in Greater Manchester, England. Participants: The outcomes evaluation was analysed at an area level. Ninety-three lay persons representing nineareas completed questionnaires, with 12 follow-up interviews in five areas; 20 stakeholders representing ten areas were interviewed at baseline, with 17 follow-up interviews in eight areas and 26 members of the public from two areas attended focus groups. Interventions: Professionals in a co-ordinator role recruited and supported lay volunteers who were trained to become alcohol health champions. The champion's role was to provide informal, brief alcohol advice to the local population and take action to strengthen restrictions on alcohol availability. Main outcome measures: Numbers of alcohol-related hospital admissions, accident and emergency attendances, ambulance call-outs, street-level crime and antisocial behaviour in the intervention areas (area size: 1600–5500 residents). Set-up and running costs were collected alongside process evaluation data exploring barriers and facilitators. Data sources: Routinely collected quantitative data on outcome measures aggregated at the intervention area and matched control and synthetic control areas. Data from policy documents, licensing registers, meeting notes, invoices, time/cost diaries, training registers, questionnaires, interviews, reflective diaries and focus groups. Results: The intervention rolled out in nine out of ten areas, seven of which ran for a full 12 months. Areas with better-established infrastructure at baseline were able to train more champions. In total, 123 alcohol health champions were trained (95 lay volunteers and 28 professionals): lay volunteers self-reported positive impact. Champions engaged in brief advice conversations more readily than taking action on alcohol availability. There were no consistent differences in the health and crime area-level indicators between intervention areas and controls, as confirmed by using three different analysis methods for evaluating natural experiments. The intervention was not found to be cost-beneficial. Limitations: Although the sequential roll-out order of the intervention was randomised, the selection of the intervention areas was not. Self-reported impact may have been subject to social desirability bias due to the project's high profile. Conclusions: There was no measurable impact on health and crime outcomes. Possible explanations include too few volunteers trained, volunteers being unwilling to get involved in licensing decisions, or that the intervention has no direct impact on the selected outcomes. Future work: Future similar interventions should use a coproduced community outcomes framework. Other natural experiment evaluations should use methodological triangulation to strengthen inferences about effectiveness. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN81942890. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/129/03) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 9. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. Plain language summary: What was the question?: Alcohol consumption puts an individual's health and social relationships at risk of harm. The more a person drinks, the more harmful it is. The harmful effects can place a burden on emergency services and hospitals. We wanted to find out whether community members can make a difference by taking action to address alcohol harm in their local area. What did we do?: Local councils in Greater Manchester developed a project called Communities in Charge of Alcohol, where volunteers in targeted local areas were trained to become 'alcohol health champions'. Alcohol health champions gave alcohol-related brief advice to people to help them drink less. They had a say about when, where and how alcohol is sold by reporting issues to their local council. We compared numbers of alcohol-related hospital admissions, accident and emergency attendances, ambulance call-outs and reports of crime and antisocial behaviour between areas that had alcohol health champions with other similar areas in England that did not. We calculated how much it costs to run and whether Communities in Charge of Alcohol could save society money. What did we find?: Not as many volunteers came forward to become an alcohol health champion as hoped for. Those who did give alcohol-related brief advice to people. They preferred not to report issues about alcohol sales to their local council, either because it was too complicated or because they did not want to be called a 'grass'. We did not find levels of alcohol harm changed in the Communities in Charge of Alcohol areas. Because of this, we could not demonstrate that Communities in Charge of Alcohol could save society money. What does this mean?: Getting involved in alcohol licensing decisions needs to be made easier for communities, with more anonymity, through the support of professionals. More work needs to be done to understand whether giving brief advice can reduce alcohol harm in whole communities. Scientific summary: Background: The availability of, and access to, alcohol is a key determinant of alcohol harm, and powers exist within the Licensing Act 2003 of England and Wales that enable the public to influence the local sale and supply of alcohol. At an individual level, implementing programmes to promote early risk identification and brief advice have the potential to reduce alcohol consumption and prevent alcohol-related harm, but there is a dearth of evidence to determine the feasibility and effectiveness of lay people having a role. The Greater Manchester (GM) Combined Authority (GMCA) and Greater Manchester Health and Social Care Partnership (GMHSCP) designed a new programme, 'Communities in Charge of Alcohol' (CICA) in 2017 to train lay volunteers to become alcohol health champions (AHCs), who would be able to (1) give alcohol-related brief advice to individuals and (2) help communities influence alcohol availability and strengthen restrictions in alcohol risk environments. Overall aims: To evaluate the effectiveness and cost–benefit of implementing a locally delivered AHC intervention and understand the context and factors that enable or hinder the intervention. Objectives: Relating to the outcome evaluation: to determine the effect on area-level key health performance indicators: alcohol-related hospital admissions (narrow measure), weekend accident and emergency (A&E) attendances (Friday 3 p.m.–Sunday 3 p.m.), weekday A&E attendances (Monday–Friday 9 a.m.–5 p.m. each day), weekend ambulance call-outs (Friday 3 p.m.–Sunday 3 p.m.), weekday ambulance call-outs (Monday–Friday 9 a.m.–5 p.m. each day) to determine the effect on key crime indicators (street-level crime data) at the weekend (Friday 3 p.m.–Sunday 3 p.m.) and weekday (Monday–Friday 9 a.m.–5 p.m. each day) to determine the effect on key antisocial behaviour (ASB) indicators (police recorded calls for service were classified as ASB according to the National Standard for Incident Recording). Relating to the process evaluation: to explore policy context and variation in licensing practice, including any impact of devolution in GM to explore barriers and facilitators at key stages of the implementation of the intervention: recruitment of AHCs to initial training and cascade training, delivery of initial training and cascade training, use of skills beyond the training in AHC activity, retention of AHCs to explore responses to AHC training, modelling of health behaviours, perceptions of community cohesion and development to determine numbers of brief interventions applied and community awareness events organised/participated in to examine and quantify the amount and success of community involvement in licensing issues to determine whether there was a change in composite measures of alcohol availability. Relating to the economic evaluation: to identify set-up and running costs using a standardised costing exercise to resolve costs by sector (health, ambulance and police) before, during and after set-up to quantify benefits due to reduced hospital admissions, ambulance call-outs, A&E use, crime and ASB. Methods: Communities in Charge of Alcohol was a complex intervention already planned by the GMCA in 10 small local authority areas (~1600–5500 residents each) and was outside direct researcher control. Intervention areas were chosen by each local authority public health team as having high levels of alcohol harm in comparison to the rest of the local authority. All intervention areas were at the bottom of the deprivation index, in deprivation decile 1 or 2. Using a stepped-wedge design, researchers were able to randomise the order of roll-out of intervention areas to bring a quasi-experimental approach to the evaluation. Two additional evaluation designs were used in order to triangulate findings, namely comparison to matched controls and comparison to synthetic controls. Ethical approval was received from the University of Salford Research Ethics Committee on 17 May 2017 (reference number: HSR1617–135) and obtained from the University of Bristol on 16 May 2019 (reference number: 82762). Outcome evaluation data sources: Routinely collected data at the lower-layer super output area (LSOA) level for intervention areas was compared with control areas. Data sources were as follows: alcohol-related hospital admissions data – Public Health England (now Office for Health Improvement and Disparities) accident and emergency department attendance data – NHS Digital ambulance call-out data – North West Ambulance Service reported crime and ASB data – GM Police. Analysis spanned a 10-year period (7 years pre intervention and a maximum of 3 years post implementation), ending in January 2020. Data were analysed using log-rate growth models and time series analyses to quantify the effect of the CICA programme on key performance indicators. Process evaluation data sources: Pre-implementation phase document review of local Statements of Licensing Policy (n = 9), alcohol availability composite score of on- and off-licensed premises (n = 9 areas), roll-out preparatory meeting notes. Train-the-Trainer attendance registers by area (n = 5, representing 9 areas, attended by 48 lay participants and 25 professional participants). Cascade training attendance registers by area (n = 11, representing 7 areas, attended by 47 lay participants and 3 professional participants). Pre- and post-training questionnaires (n = 93 lay people, 98% response rate). Baseline interviews with stakeholders (n = 20) (initial implementation phase); interviews with lay volunteer AHCs (n = 5, representing 3 areas) within 3–6 months of initial training (implementation phase). Follow-up interviews (12 months) with stakeholders (n = 11, representing eight areas), licensing officers (n = 6, representing six areas) and lay volunteer AHCs (n = 7, representing four areas); follow-up questionnaires with AHCs (n = 11); focus groups with local residents (n = 3 groups, representing two areas, with a total of 26 participants). Economic evaluation data sources: Time and transportation costs incurred during project meetings aggregated from meeting minutes and stakeholder time/cost diaries. Invoices for the design, development and delivery of training packages and accreditation fees. Invoices for the qualification and assessment fees, time and miscellaneous (transportation, room hire, catering, printing costs). AHC time and costs aggregated from volunteer diaries and stakeholder time/cost diaries. Invoices for engagement materials (AUDIT-C scratchcards). Greater Manchester Combined Authority research team's (formerly New Economy) cost–benefit analysis (CBA) tool was populated using aggregated outcome evaluation data to resolve costs for each key performance indicator before, during and after CICA setup. Results: Nine out of 10 local authorities rolled out the CICA intervention on their given start date: seven areas completed a full year, carrying out cascade training in the first 12 months, two areas withdrew at 6 and 9 months and one area withdrew in the pre-implementation phase. There were 118 [interquartile range (IQR): 60–205] alcohol-related hospital admissions per month per pre-intervention LSOA , rising to 134 (IQR : 67–203) post intervention. Some outcomes had very small counts at the LSOA level; notably, there were only 2 (IQR : 1–3) weekend crimes per month pre-intervention and 4 (IQR : 2–6) post intervention. The primary, stepped-wedge analyses provide weak evidence of an average increase in alcohol-related hospital admissions following the implementation of CICA of about 13%, corresponding to about 20 admissions weekly, although the confidence interval was wide, −1.98 to 31.39, and not statistically significant (p~0.09), while the analysis that made use of local controls suggested a bigger effect, at 16.4% (7.33–26.16, p < 0.001). However, the other methods of analysis (national controls and counterfactuals) indicated much smaller effect sizes and confidence intervals, including unity: 3.42% (−4.56 to 12.07; p = 0.41) and 7.14% (−9.76 to 24.04; p = 0.41), respectively. The other quantitative outcomes (A&E admissions, or ambulance call-outs to the area, nor to reported crimes or reported ASB incidents) showed some were individual statistically significant effects (with some methods and some indicators), but these were more often not in favour of the intervention. Triangulation of three methods of analysis did not indicate any consistent differences between control and intervention areas. The pre-implementation phase was defined as the period leading up to the roll-out of the first Train-the-Trainer event. Several facilitating contextual factors were identified a priori. The total number of these factors in place at baseline correlated with numbers trained in the first year (Rs = 0.77, p = 0.01). Specifically, areas with a healthcare provider to co-ordinate the intervention (p = 0.02); a pool of other volunteers to recruit from (p = 0.02); a contract in place with a commissioned service (p = 0.02); and formal volunteer arrangements (p = 0.03) trained more AHCs. Across all nine areas, fewer volunteers were recruited than the anticipated target of 35 per area. In total, 123 AHCs were trained and gained a Royal Society for Public Health Level 2 qualification. Of these, 95 were lay volunteers from the intervention areas. The majority identified as white (70%), with ages ranging from 18 to 65+, and almost half aged between 41 and 60 (48%). Slightly more women volunteered compared to men (61%). Most AHCs self-reported being in the lower-risk drinking category (66% scored 0–4 on AUDIT-C). Post-training questionnaires suggested that volunteers felt more confident to talk about the harms associated with alcohol and give alcohol-related brief advice than they did pre training (91.4% compared with 79.6%, p < 0.001) and that they felt more confident to raise issues about venues selling alcohol (90.3% compared with 74.2% pre training, p < 0.001). Intervention areas that recorded AHC activity (n = 5) captured 1100 conversations, 251 AUDIT-Cs completed and 65 community events attended. Time/cost diaries suggested that AHCs spent on average 11 minutes having an informal brief advice conversation. Interviews with AHCs on self-reported activity were consistent with time/cost and reflective diaries: AHCs put into practice brief advice conversations more than community action to influence licensing. Interviews with stakeholders indicated several enabling factors to consider when rolling out and embedding an AHC intervention: a clear understanding of the place-based focus; commissioned provider services needing a clear understanding of own roles and the anticipated outcomes; and co-ordinators having the skills and capacity to support inexperienced volunteer groups. The importance of infrastructure was reflected in interviews, recognising that preparing the ground at a hyperlocal level takes time, needing to be well in advance of the formal implementation period. Recruitment strategies need to be multipronged, and stakeholders need to be prepared to provide a sustained period of support for new and existing champions. In the follow-up phase, 12 months post intervention, interviews with stakeholders revealed how the local co-ordinators' ability to operationalise and sustain CICA was significantly impacted by their lack of capacity to sustain the levels of support, as well as the complexity of skills required of the role. After 12 months, there was strong consistency in findings from follow-up interviews with stakeholders, AHCs and focus groups with members of the public. Communities in Charge of Alcohol's intended mechanism of action was to reduce alcohol-related harm through secondary prevention interventions; however perceptions of those most in need of an AHC conversation were 'problem drinkers' to signpost into tertiary interventions. Quality of local alcohol treatment services was considered to be poor, with multiple barriers to help and information seeking. Conclusions: To our knowledge, CICA is the first alcohol-focused champion role of its kind to be investigated and across multiple intervention sites. It is also the first evaluation of a health champion programme that uses methodological triangulation to strengthen inferences about effectiveness. There was evidence that lay people trained as AHCs were able to have conversations with members of their communities who were consuming alcohol at higher risk levels, demonstrating a level of skill and confidence that can sometimes be absent in health professionals. AHCs, their co-ordinators and the public valued the role. However, significant infrastructure is needed to support an intervention such as CICA , and time is needed to develop and embed a group of volunteers. Despite evidence (from the process evaluation) of the planned activity taking place at local level, we were not able to show that CICA was effective, nor was it cost-effective. There are likely to be two main reasons for this. Firstly, the number of champions trained was too small to have a sufficient number of brief advice conversations to generate any measurable effect at the area level of analysis. Moreover, brief interventions may not directly impact on primary health and crime outcomes at a population level. Secondly, the AHCs were less willing (and had less opportunity) to get involved with alcohol licensing decisions. Since licensing policies theoretically have an impact at an area level, this theoretically would have been more likely to generate a significant area-level effect. The evidence from this study is that communities continue to struggle to influence statutory processes that affect alcohol availability where they live, and further consideration of how to enable increased community engagement is necessary. Recommendations for future research (numbered in priority order): natural experiment evaluations should include methodological triangulation to guard against overinterpretation of spurious results investigate coproducing a community outcomes framework to measure reductions in alcohol harm evaluate whether rebalancing local licensing policy to be community-centred might increase community engagement in the local licensing decision-making process investigate the effectiveness of CICA in areas where indicators of alcohol harm are increasing but are not at the highest level of harm within the local authority a wider range of external contextual factors could be tested in the pre-implementation phase of a complex intervention, incorporating methods to combine factors into mean scores, to test relationships between process indicators and outcomes. Trial registration: This trial is registered as ISRCTN81942890. Funding: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme (NIHR award ref: 15/129/03) and is published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 12, No. 9. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the ramifications of information feed integration on user engagements and contributions in online content-sharing platforms by exploiting a natural experiment occurred in a leading knowledge-sharing platform that integrated informal social posts with professional knowledge content in one feed. Our results show that the juxtaposition of incongruous types of content increased mindset switching and cognitive strain, thus hurting user engagements. We also reveal a novel crowding-out effect, viz., the integration heightened concerns that posting informal social posts would dilute the contributor's professional image, thus inhibiting user contributions. Our findings hold important practical implications for all platforms that host (or are considering hosting) diverse types of user-generated content (UGC). Additional content curation tools can potentially enhance user engagement and retention, but their effectiveness hinges on a foundational and crucial element—the presentation format of heterogeneous content types. Essentially, the value of curating informal social posts in a knowledge-sharing platform would diminish when those content intrudes upon and conflict with the professional domain. This insight underscores that any UGC platforms, when adopting a diversity-oriented strategy, should pay close attention to heterogeneity between different content types for the purpose of optimizing user experiences and promoting user contributions. Many online communities that rely on effortful, voluntary content contributions offer additional content curation tools to facilitate social interactions and encourage user contributions. Any platform that offers two or more heterogeneous content types (e.g., expert knowledge and social posts) faces a choice about the presentation format: whether to display the content types separately or in an integrated information feed. We leverage a natural experiment on Zhihu, a Q&A platform that offers a social-interaction-oriented functionality called Ideas. Zhihu initially presented answers (expert knowledge content) and ideas (social posts) in two different information feeds, but the platform integrated ideas into the same information feed as answers in June 2019. We find that information feed integration significantly decreased user engagement with and contribution of both ideas and answers. We hypothesize that users decreased their engagement because the juxtaposition of incongruous types of content increased mindset switching and cognitive strain. This hypothesis is supported by an additional laboratory experiment. We also present evidence showing that contributions decreased both because of the decrease in engagement (weaker social recognition incentives) and because integration heightened concerns that posting ideas would dilute the contributor's professional image. Our findings have important theoretical and practical implications for any platform that hosts heterogeneous content. History: Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang served as the senior editor and Yili (Kevin) Hong served as associate editor for this article. Funding: Z. Cao acknowledges this research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72201238, 72192823]. G. Li acknowledges this research was funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72102047] and Shanghai Pujiang Program [Grant 21PJC006]. Supplemental Material: The e-companion is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/isre.2022.0043. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Test the immediate and sustained impact of suspending a police K9 program on officer injury, suspect injury, and suspect resistance rates. Methods: A large municipal policing agency housing one of the oldest K9 programs in the USA suddenly terminated the program at the close of summer 2020. We exploit this change as a natural experiment to test three hypotheses related to rates of injuries (officer and suspect) and resisting arrest. We use Bayesian modeling in an interrupted time series analysis to measure the immediate and long-term effects of the K9 apprehension program's suspension on our hypotheses. Results: The sudden suspension of K9 apprehension was not associated with a statistical increase in officer or suspect injury, or suspect resistance, during felony arrests. Conclusions: As police agencies, communities, and stakeholders renegotiate the risks of policing, constraints on using police K9s are unlikely to impact aggregate officer or suspect safety negatively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Widening income inequality is a serious social concern in many countries. We examine the causal effect of a negative demand shock on executive compensation and worker wages using a quasi-natural experiment, considering Japanese firms that experienced a sudden and substantial export decline following the global financial crisis in the late 2000s. Worker wages tended to decline significantly more relative to executive compensation after the crisis in firms depending more on exports, causing a wider pay differential. We establish the robustness of our difference-in-difference results by considering selection into exporters, excluding sporadic exporters, and controlling for foreign ownership or liquidity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the importance of fostering individual taxpayers' (hereafter taxpayers) trust in government to encourage tax compliance is widely acknowledged, how policy actions can increase trust in government remains unclear. Thus, the main purpose of our research is to see whether policy actions that signal government benevolence during a crisis can quickly increase trust in government, and its positive implications for tax compliance intentions. Another goal of our research is to see whether such a quick change of trust is driven by emotions. To test this, we use the British COVID-19 Self-Employment Income Support Scheme (hereafter SEISS) as a natural experiment. Right after the SEISS was launched to the British public, we recruited a sample of 500 British self-employed taxpayers via Prolific. Our results suggest that receiving (vs. not receiving) government support increases trust in government and enhances tax compliance intentions. In addition, trust in government mediates the positive impact of receiving (vs. not receiving) government support on tax compliance intentions. More important, our results suggest that policy actions that signal government benevolence during a crisis can increase trust in government quickly because it is driven by taxpayers' emotions such as gratitude. These results have important implications for governments to efficiently deal with the sharp rise in public debts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the extent to which policy variation matters for refugee integration, focusing on two parallel local integration programs varying in intensity and comprehensiveness and their effects on refugees’ economic and socio-cultural integration. We employ 3-wave panel data including detailed information on Syrian refugees from the moment they were granted asylum status in the Netherlands up to four years later. After accounting for treatment assignment bias using coarsened exact matching, random effects analyses showed a significant increase over time in refugees’ Dutch language proficiency, identification with the host community, self-reliance, participation in volunteer or paid work, and welfare independence. However, we did not find convincing evidence to suggest that refugees’ integration process developed differently depending on the integration program. We discuss possible explanations for our findings and advance policy interventions that aim to foster refugee integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Loneliness contributes to mortality risk, comparable to the risks associated with smoking and obesity, although the causal determinants of loneliness remain less clear. This paper leverages mandatory stay-at-home orders in Australia as a natural experiment and employs data from a panel study to investigate the causal link between physical isolation and loneliness. By analyzing variations in the number of lockdown days experienced by respondents up until their interview dates, and utilizing difference-in-differences analyses with individual, region, and year fixed-effects estimations, we find, contrary to expectations, that the number of days in lockdown does not significantly impact loneliness. Our study examines cumulative, concurrent, and non-linear effects, and assesses external validity through community morale and peer effects during lockdowns using spatial analysis. Additionally, we delve into heterogeneous effects across various factors, such as income, age, personality, living arrangements, and remoteness, finding statistically and empirically insignificant effects. However, for extroverts and young people, we observe weak statistical significance. We investigate exclusion restrictions by analyzing factors including social contacts, internet access, job industry, and household characteristics in relation to loneliness; as well as time use and relationship satisfaction to better understand the underlying mechanism. Our study challenges the notion that 'being alone' and 'being lonely' are interchangeable concepts, providing the first empirical causal evidence of no links between the two. Furthermore, our findings refine earlier understandings of social isolation, highlighting that it likely encompasses factors beyond physical isolation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Delays at court are an everlasting and potentially consequential reality of criminal justice systems, although most would agree that the timely adjudication of cases is needed from both administrative, judicial, and individual perspectives. This paper uses administrative data and a policy reform in Denmark in 2007 to measure the unconfounded association between court delays – or, more specifically, time to adjudication – and criminal recidivism within 5 years. Results show that although court delays do not push more people into recidivism, the delays matter for how many crimes recidivists end up being convicted of. Also, criminality tends to be muted during the period from charge to adjudication (even in a context with low use of pretrial detention and no bail system), whereby court delays also matter for the timing of new crimes – a finding with important theoretical implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Income is a relevant factor for explaining outbound tourism demand. However, when working with regional- or country-level data, it is difficult to disentangle the role of income in stimulating tourism travelling from other factors that correlate with greater income levels. This paper exploits a natural experiment from Spanish Christmas Lottery to estimate the causal effect of income shocks on outbound tourism. We leverage the staggered and quasi-random assignment of lottery winnings across Spanish regions to estimate the elasticity of outbound annual trips and expenditure to windfall gains. Using difference-in-differences with the amount of lottery prizes as an indicator of treatment intensity, we show that lottery winnings per capita increase both the annual number of tourism trips and expenditure per capita. This effect operates during the first 2 years following the draw, which is likely explained by bandwagon and income multiplier effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Live oyster reefs are considered a critical recruitment habitat for estuarine faunal populations as localized in situ or mesocosm studies have demonstrated many faunal species prefer live oyster habitat. It has therefore been assumed that the loss of live oyster habitat would precipitate faunal population declines, but this has been largely untested at large (estuary) scales. Here, we assessed how estuary‐wide faunal populations were affected by a 95% loss of live oyster habitat following the 2012 oyster collapse of Apalachicola Bay, FL, which previously supported one of the largest oyster fisheries in the United States. We standardized long‐term fisheries‐independent monitoring seine and trawl data to create relative indices of resident, associated, and transient faunal species' overall abundance and recruit abundance (restrictive to sizes between 15% and 35% of L∞$$ {L}_{\infty } $$). We expected that both relative abundance indices would decrease following the oyster collapse, particularly among species that reside on or recruit to oyster reefs. However, analyses via a series of one‐sided Bayesian t tests did not indicate that faunal recruitment or overall abundance significantly declined in 2012 post‐collapse. As the response of the faunal population could be lagged relative to the 2012 collapse, we also conducted change point analyses to search for lagged declines. Of the 24 relative abundance time series, only two had significant change points post‐collapse, and only black sea bass overall relative abundance declined with an associated change point at the end of the time series. The surprising paucity of faunal decline following oyster loss may be due to the use of alternative habitat types, exceptionally lagged faunal responses, or, perhaps most compelling, a disconnect between preferred and required habitats. Our failure to detect faunal consequences following an oyster population collapse suggests that assumptions of habitat loss (or restoration) effects on estuarine fauna at ecosystem scales are not straightforward and the extrapolation of sub‐estuary‐scale studies may result in poor predictions of future outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates the impact of background binaural music on educational attainment within the context of a natural experiment. In a university business school, 73 undergraduate students participated in this study, providing a maximum of 707 observations at 16 points in time. The students were divided into three groups (Microeconomics A and B, and International Economics) and were further categorized into control and experimental groups at different stages of the courses. All students attended classes from January to June 2021, with the addition of binaural music as a treatment in either the first or second part of the courses (divided into three parts). After each lecture, students completed a multiple-choice quiz designed to assess their learning during the lecture. Utilizing t-tests for mean comparisons and panel data econometric techniques, the study found that the scores of the experimental groups were significantly higher than those of the control groups. Overall, binaural music was observed to increase quiz scores by 8 to 20 basis points.

Abstract Background The Ultra-Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), introduced in Central London in April 2019, aims to enhance air quality and improve public health. The Children's Health in London and Luton (CHILL) study evaluates the impact of the ULEZ on children's health. This analysis focuses on the one-year impacts on the shift towards active travel to school. Methods CHILL is a prospective parallel cohort study of ethnically diverse children, aged 6–9 years attending 84 primary schools within or with catchment areas encompassing London’s ULEZ (intervention) and Luton (non-intervention area). Baseline (2018/19) and one-year follow-up (2019/20) data were collected at school visits from 1992 (58%) children who reported their mode of travel to school ‘today’ (day of assessment). Multilevel logistic regressions were performed to analyse associations between the introduction of the ULEZ and the likelihood of switching from inactive to active travel modes, and vice-versa. Interactions between intervention group status and pre-specified effect modifiers were also explored. Results Among children who took inactive modes at baseline, 42% of children in London and 20% of children in Luton switched to active modes. For children taking active modes at baseline, 5% of children in London and 21% of children in Luton switched to inactive modes. Relative to the children in Luton, children in London were more likely to have switched from inactive to active modes (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.21–10.92). Children in the intervention group were also less likely to switch from active to inactive modes (OR 0.11, 0.05–0.24). Moderator analyses showed that children living further from school were more likely to switch from inactive to active modes (OR 6.06,1.87–19.68) compared to those living closer (OR 1.43, 0.27–7.54). Conclusions Implementation of clean air zones can increase uptake of active travel to school and was particularly associated with more sustainable and active travel in children living further from school.

Abstract Purpose Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been the cornerstone of COVID-19 pandemic control, but evidence on their effectiveness varies according to the methods and approaches taken to empirical analysis. We analysed the impact of NPIs on incident SARS-CoV-2 across 32 European countries (March-December 2020) using two NPI trackers: the Corona Virus Pandemic Policy Monitor – COV-PPM, and the Oxford Covid-19 Government Response Tracker – OxCGRT. Methods NPIs were summarized through principal component analysis into three sets, stratified by two waves (C1-C3, weeks 5–25, and C4-C6, weeks 35–52). Longitudinal, multi-level mixed-effects negative binomial regression models were fitted to estimate incidence rate ratios for cases and deaths considering different time-lags and reverse causation (i.e. changing incidence causing NPIs), stratified by waves and geographical regions (Western, Eastern, Northern, Southern, Others). Results During the first wave, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport, public events, and public spaces (C1) and healthcare system improvements, border closures and restrictions to public institutions (C2) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence after 28 and 35-days. Mask policies (C3) were associated with a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 incidence (except after 35-days). During wave 1, C1 and C2 were associated with a decrease in deaths after 49-days and C3 after 21, 28 and 35-days. During wave 2, restrictions on movement/mobility, public transport and healthcare system improvements (C5) were also associated with a decrease in SARS-CoV-2 cases and deaths across all countries. Conclusion In the absence of pre-existing immunity, vaccines or treatment options, our results suggest that the observed implementation of different categories of NPIs, showed varied associations with SARS-CoV-2 incidence and deaths across regions, and varied associations across waves. These relationships were consistent across components of NPIs derived from two policy trackers (CoV-PPM and OxCGRT).

The COVID-19 pandemic has underscored the urgent need for healthcare entities to develop resilient strategies to cope with disruptions caused by the pandemic. This study focuses on the digital resilience of certified physicians who adopted an online healthcare community (OHC) to acquire patients and conduct telemedicine services during the pandemic. We synthesize the resilience literature and identify two effects of digital resilience—the resistance effect and the recovery effect. We use a proprietary dataset that matches online and offline data sources to study the digital resilience of physicians. A difference-in-differences (DID) analysis shows that physicians who adopted an OHC had strong resistance and recovery effects during the pandemic. Remarkably, after the COVID-19 outbreak, these physicians had 35.0% less reduction in medical consultations in the immediate period and 31.0% more bounce-back in the subsequent period as compared to physicians who did not adopt the OHC. We further analyze the sources of physicians’ digital resilience by distinguishing between new and existing patients from both online and offline channels. Our subgroup analysis shows that, in general, digital resilience is more pronounced when physicians have a higher online reputation rating or have more positive interactions with patients on the OHC platform, providing further support for the mechanisms underlying digital resilience. Our research has significant theoretical and managerial implications beyond the context of the pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Regulatory actions are increasingly used to tackle issues such as excessive alcohol or sugar intake, but such actions to reduce sedentary behaviour remain scarce. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on sedentary behaviour call for system-wide policies. The Chinese government introduced the world’s first nation-wide multi-setting regulation on multiple types of sedentary behaviour in children and adolescents in July 2021. This regulation restricts when (and for how long) online gaming businesses can provide access to pupils; the amount of homework teachers can assign to pupils according to their year groups; and when tutoring businesses can provide lessons to pupils. We evaluated the effect of this regulation on sedentary behaviour safeguarding pupils. Methods With a natural experiment evaluation design, we used representative surveillance data from 9- to 18-year-old pupils before and after the introduction of the regulation, for longitudinal (n = 7,054, matched individuals, primary analysis) and repeated cross-sectional (n = 99,947, exploratory analysis) analyses. We analysed pre-post differences for self-reported sedentary behaviour outcomes (total sedentary behaviour time, screen viewing time, electronic device use time, homework time, and out-of-campus learning time) using multilevel models, and explored differences by sex, education stage, residency, and baseline weight status. Results Longitudinal analyses indicated that pupils had reduced their mean total daily sedentary behaviour time by 13.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -15.9 to -11.7%, approximately 46 min) and were 1.20 times as likely to meet international daily screen time recommendations (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.32) one month after the introduction of the regulation compared to the reference group (before its introduction). They were on average 2.79 times as likely to meet the regulatory requirement on homework time (95% CI: 2.47 to 3.14) than the reference group and reduced their daily total screen-viewing time by 6.4% (95% CI: -9.6 to -3.3%, approximately 10 min). The positive effects were more pronounced among high-risk groups (secondary school and urban pupils who generally spend more time in sedentary behaviour) than in low-risk groups (primary school and rural pupils who generally spend less time in sedentary behaviour). The exploratory analyses showed comparable findings. Conclusions This regulatory intervention has been effective in reducing total and specific types of sedentary behaviour among Chinese children and adolescents, with the potential to reduce health inequalities. International researchers and policy makers may explore the feasibility and acceptability of implementing regulatory interventions on sedentary behaviour elsewhere.

Introduction: Recent years have witnessed an increase in highly publicized attacks targeting members of ethnoracial and religious minority groups. To date, existing research has primarily focused on the tendency for such "trigger events" to generate violent aftershocks. We argue that beyond such ripple effects, highly salient trigger events significantly increase hate-crime related stress among racial and ethnic minorities. Additionally, we explore whether these effects are limited to the group most clearly targeted, or if they "spill over" to other minoritized communities. Methods: To study reactions to hate crimes, we draw upon national survey data (N = 1,122) in combination with a natural experiment involving the Unite the Right rally and vehicle attack in Charlottesville, Virginia in August 2017. We employ an "unexpected event during survey" design to estimate the causal effect of the Charlottesville rally on stress about hate crimes. Results: We first show that there was an increase in anti-Black hate crimes in the 2 weeks following the Charlottesville incident. We also find a corresponding increase in stress due to the perception of personal vulnerability to hate crimes among African-Americans. However, we do not observe a significant increase in levels of stress following the trigger event among Hispanics and Asian Americans. Discussion: Our results suggest that highly publicized instances of intergroup violence can have significant impacts on stress about hate crime victimization within the target group. However, we find that this effect is short-lived, and that both violent aftershocks and the general climate of fear spurred by hate crimes may be racially bounded. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As disasters increase due to climate change, population density, epidemics, and technology, information is needed about postdisaster consequences for people's mental health and how stress-related mental disorders affect multiple spheres of life, including labor-market attachment. We tested the causal hypothesis that individuals who developed stress-related mental disorders as a consequence of their disaster exposure experienced subsequent weak labor-market attachment and poor work-related outcomes. We leveraged a natural experiment in an instrumental variables model, studying a 2004 fireworks factory explosion disaster that precipitated the onset of stress-related disorders (posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression) among individuals in the local community (N = 86,726). We measured labor-market outcomes using longitudinal population-level administrative data: sick leave, unemployment benefits, early retirement pension, and income from wages from 2007 to 2010. We found that individuals who developed a stress-related disorder after the disaster were likely to go on sickness benefit, both in the short-and long-term, were likely to use unemployment benefits and to lose wage income in the long term. Stress-related disorders did not increase the likelihood of early retirement. The natural experiment design minimized the possibility that omitted confounders biased these effects of mental health on work outcomes. Addressing the mental health and employment needs of survivors after a traumatic experience may improve their labor-market outcomes and their nations' economic outputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural experiments provide remarkable opportunities to test the large-scale effects of human activities. Widespread energy blackouts offer such an 'experiment' to test the impacts of artificial light at night (ALAN) on wildlife. We use the situation in South Africa, where regular scheduled blackouts are being implemented, to highlight this opportunity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does leader age matter for the likelihood of interstate conflict? Many studies in biology, psychology, and physiology have found that aggression tends to decline with age throughout the adult lifespan, particularly in males. Moreover, a number of major international conflicts have been attributed to young leaders, including the conquests of Alexander the Great and the ambitious military campaigns of Napoleon. However, the exact nature of the relationship between leader age and international conflict has been difficult to study because of the endogeneity problem. Leaders do not come to power randomly. Rather, many domestic and international factors influence who becomes the leader of a country, and some of these factors could correlate with the chances of interstate conflict. For instance, wary democratic publics might favor older leaders when future international conflict seems likely, inducing a relationship between older leaders and interstate conflict. This article overcomes such confounding by using a regression discontinuity design. Specifically, it looks at close elections of national leaders who had large differences in age. It finds that when older candidates barely defeated younger ones, countries were much less likely to engage in military conflict. Its sample is also fairly representative of democracies more broadly, meaning that the findings likely hold true for cases outside the sample. The results demonstrate the important role that individuals play in shaping world politics. They also illustrate the value of design-based inference for learning about important questions in the study of international relations and peace science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effectiveness of collaborative platforms in supporting local collaborations for natural resource management. It also explores how governmental and non-governmental lead organizations adopt differing collaborative implementation approaches and how these variations influence outcomes. Utilizing a natural experiment and a difference-in-differences estimator, we evaluate if the Department of Energy's Clean Cities program functions as a collaborative platform to foster local-level Clean Cities Collaborations across the US, thereby improving air quality. Our findings suggest that Clean Cities Collaborations have a substantial and enduring impact on reducing air pollution. A series of subgroup analyses suggests that these environmental improvements are most noticeable in collaborations led by non-profits and regional government councils, rather than those directed by state and local governments. A complementary content analysis provides exploratory evidence that issue definition, collaborative group structure, and inclusive decision-making processes are crucial managerial factors that contribute to the environmental improvements. These insights pave the way for more effective management of collaborative governance on a larger scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A natural experiment reveals that an ad ban reduces sales of a grocery retailer by 6% but does not affect overall market size. Advertising bans typically target products that deceive consumers in ways that can threaten their physical and mental health. An alternative policy objective might seek environmental protection through a ban on print advertising. Such measures would profoundly affect grocery retailers relying on printed leaflets to communicate weekly promotions. We measure the causal effect of banning advertising on retail performance by studying a temporary advertising ban implemented in a German federal state during the COVID-19 pandemic. The ban resulted in the suspension of all print advertising by grocery retailers, and the exogenous variation in advertising created by this natural experiment serves as our identification strategy. We apply difference-in-differences regressions to data from a national grocery retailer and find that the ban resulted in a 6% sales decrease in the treated state compared with an adjacent state. GfK Household Panel data reveal no effect of the advertising ban on the market level but a negative impact on retailers offering and advertising weekly promotional product assortments. We study the sensitivity of these results to the COVID pandemic and find that neither changes in COVID-19 incidence, vaccination rates, nor customers' mobility moderate the ad ban effect. The findings offer practical insights for regulators and retailers regarding the impact of ad bans and the value of advertising. History: Catherine Tucker served as the senior editor for this article. This paper was accepted through the Marketing Science: Frontiers review process. Conflict of Interest Statement: None of the authors have any financial or non-financial interests in this manuscript's subject matter or materials. Sebastian Gabel consults with a company linked to the retailer that provided the data. Access to the GfK Household Panel data is provided by AiMark (http://www.aimark.org), which is a not-for-profit foundation that supports top academic research with scanner data provided by its data partners GfK and Kantar. Funding: This work was supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (CRC TRR 190 [Project Number 280092119]) and Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek. S. Gabel acknowledges funding from the Dutch Research Council (NWO) under a Veni grant. M. Spann acknowledges funding from the German Research Foundation. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data files are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.2023.0019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We combine panel household data with the introduction of an increasing block tariffs (IBT) for residential electricity in three experimental regions of Russia to analyze the relationship between the IBT and the propensity of households to purchase dirty fuels. Using a difference-in-differences empirical specification, we find that the propensity to purchase dirty fuels has increased in the regions where the IBT schemes were introduced. The size of the increase varies from 3.8 percentage points for the full sample of households to 13.4 percentage points when restricting the sample to households that do not have access to district heating networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To test the hypothesis that early-life adversity accelerates the pace of biological aging, we analyzed data from the Dutch Hunger Winter Families Study (DHWFS, N = 951). DHWFS is a natural-experiment birth-cohort study of survivors of in-utero exposure to famine conditions caused by the German occupation of the Western Netherlands in Winter 1944 to 1945, matched controls, and their siblings. We conducted DNA methylation analysis of blood samples collected when the survivors were aged 58 to quantify biological aging using the DunedinPACE, GrimAge, and PhenoAge epigenetic clocks. Famine survivors had faster DunedinPACE, as compared with controls. This effect was strongest among women. Results were similar for GrimAge, although effect-sizes were smaller. We observed no differences in PhenoAge between survivors and controls. Famine effects were not accounted for by blood-cell composition and were similar for individuals exposed early and later in gestation. Findings suggest in-utero undernutrition may accelerate biological aging in later life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the performance of the platform can be largely influenced by the relationships between users, it is important to consider the effect of recommender systems from a relational perspective, which is overlooked in the literature. Our study complements the literature by distinguishing recommended candidates as either familiar or unfamiliar based on relationship embeddedness. Using a recommender system’s launch on a freight exchange platform as a natural experiment, we employ difference-in-differences estimations to quantify the effects of recommending diverse candidates on user’s acceptance and overall transaction frequency. Results show that recommendations with familiar candidates are more likely to be accepted, but lead to a lower user’s overall transaction frequency. On the contrary, recommendations with unfamiliar candidates result in a higher user’s overall transaction frequency, suggesting that the positive effect of the recommender system is primarily driven by recommendations with unfamiliar candidates. We attribute these findings to informative signals of more matching opportunities conveyed by recommendations with unfamiliar candidates, which elevate user’s evaluation of the platform and stimulate more transactions. Our work contributes to the literature by highlighting a relational perspective in the design of recommender systems and the importance of diversity rather than accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to COVID-19, states implemented stay-at-home orders, affecting two key correlates of recidivism: housing and employment. In this study, we examine how a programme that sought to facilitate successful reintegration through paid transitional housing was impacted by stay-at-home orders. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of an RCT where formerly incarcerated individuals were provided with paid transitional housing before and during a stay-at-home order. Results indicate no difference in the likelihood of the treatment group and control group to be employed or return to prison prior to the stay-at-home order. After the implementation of the stay-at-home order, however, individuals in the treatment group were more likely to be employed and less likely to return to prison. Our findings suggest that the relationship between housing, employment, and re-incarceration was further exacerbated during the pandemic. The findings illustrate the benefits of paid transitional housing for those returning home during the pandemic. With the economic and social consequences of COVID-19 likely to persist, finding ways to set up formerly incarcerated individuals for success is imperative. Results suggest that paid transitional housing and additional housing assistance may be one avenue to accomplish this goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to investigate the effect of Ramadan intermittent fasting on cognitive work performance using a more natural approach. To achieve the objective of this study, a natural experimental approach was employed by incorporating a pretest-posttest control group design. A forward-type Digit Span Test (DST) was utilized as the measure of the cognitive work performance and was administered to participants twice, before and during Ramadan, with one-month gap between the tests. Two hundred and sixty-seven participants were naturally grouped into fasting and non-fasting groups according to their report during Ramadan session and into morning and afternoon periods, or AM and PM hours, according to their module scheduling. The results of the analyses suggest that the cognitive work performance of the fasting participants during the PM hours is better, after controlling the DST scores before Ramadan. The study also concludes that the cognitive work performance of the fasting participants between AM and PM hours does not differ. This result could be explained using the perspectives of post-lunch performance dip and the beneficial effect of breakfast. Methodological limitations and potential practical implementation of this study are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimate the effect of the granting of European Union (EU) citizenship rights on the flow of remittances from Italy. We use the EU enlargements of 2007 and 2013 as natural experiments. The results show a negative impact on remittance flows. The effect of the 2007 EU enlargement shows how Romanian and Bulgarian citizens reduced the average annual amount of remittances by 1400 Euros per year per migrant. In the case of the 2013 EU enlargement, we find a smaller decrease of about 50 Euros per year per Croat. These results are consistent after a series of robustness checks. We analyse this decline in depth to the extent that remittances are an important source of monetary flows in transition economies. We find that both the change in the taxonomy of immigrants from the new Member States and the improvement of economic conditions in the country of origin after the EU accession provide suggestive evidence on plausible mechanisms behind our results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Study Design: Systematic review. Objectives: To determine if the natural experiment design is a useful research methodology concept in spinal trauma care, and to determine if this methodology can be a viable alternative when randomized controlled trials are either infeasible or unethical. Methods: A Medline, Embase and Cochrane database search was performed between 2004 and 2023 for studies comparing different treatment modalities of spinal trauma. All observational studies with a natural experiment design comparing different treatment modalities of spinal trauma were included. Data extraction and quality assessment with the MINORS criteria was performed. Results: Four studies with a natural experiment design regarding patients with traumatic spinal fractures were included. All studies were retrospective, one study collected follow-up data prospectively. Three studies compared different operative treatment modalities, whereas one study compared different antibiotic treatment strategies. Two studies compared preferred treatment modalities between expertise centers, one study between departments (neuro- and orthopedic surgery) and one amongst surgeons. For the included retrospective studies, MINORS scores (maximum score 18) were high ranging from 12-17 and with a mean (SD) of 14.6 (1.63). Conclusions: Since 2004 only four studies using a natural experiment design have been conducted in spinal trauma. In the included studies, comparability of patient groups was high emphasizing the potential of natural experiments in spinal trauma research. Natural experiments design should be considered more frequently in future research in spinal trauma as they may help to address difficult clinical problems when RCT's are infeasible or unethical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Causal evidence of housing premiums of new metro lines is indispensable for financing and governing infrastructure investments. Previous studies have investigated the housing effects of urban rail transit with varying methods, while causality remains unsettled. This study used a natural experiment to estimate the causal effects of the new metro interventions on housing premiums in Shenzhen, China. We used metro planning knowledge, reasoning on pursuits in land finance and engineering efficiency to verify the as-if randomness of the treatment–control group assignment in the natural experiment to reinforce the power of causal inference. We applied hedonic difference-in-difference (DID) models to estimate the average treatment effects based on the longitudinal housing price and rent data. We found that housing rents increased significantly and consistently after the metro entered operation, but the price premium varied. In addition, the rent premiums around new metro lines showed a price gradient over the distance to stations. Our findings provide scientific evidence for designing value capture mechanisms (e.g. value-added property tax and rent revenue) to recover metro investment costs in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Regulatory actions are increasingly used to tackle issues such as excessive alcohol or sugar intake, but such actions to reduce sedentary behaviour remain scarce. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines on sedentary behaviour call for system-wide policies. The Chinese government introduced the world's first nation-wide multi-setting regulation on multiple types of sedentary behaviour in children and adolescents in July 2021. This regulation restricts when (and for how long) online gaming businesses can provide access to pupils; the amount of homework teachers can assign to pupils according to their year groups; and when tutoring businesses can provide lessons to pupils. We evaluated the effect of this regulation on sedentary behaviour safeguarding pupils. Methods: With a natural experiment evaluation design, we used representative surveillance data from 9- to 18-year-old pupils before and after the introduction of the regulation, for longitudinal (n = 7,054, matched individuals, primary analysis) and repeated cross-sectional (n = 99,947, exploratory analysis) analyses. We analysed pre-post differences for self-reported sedentary behaviour outcomes (total sedentary behaviour time, screen viewing time, electronic device use time, homework time, and out-of-campus learning time) using multilevel models, and explored differences by sex, education stage, residency, and baseline weight status. Results: Longitudinal analyses indicated that pupils had reduced their mean total daily sedentary behaviour time by 13.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: -15.9 to -11.7%, approximately 46 min) and were 1.20 times as likely to meet international daily screen time recommendations (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.32) one month after the introduction of the regulation compared to the reference group (before its introduction). They were on average 2.79 times as likely to meet the regulatory requirement on homework time (95% CI: 2.47 to 3.14) than the reference group and reduced their daily total screen-viewing time by 6.4% (95% CI: -9.6 to -3.3%, approximately 10 min). The positive effects were more pronounced among high-risk groups (secondary school and urban pupils who generally spend more time in sedentary behaviour) than in low-risk groups (primary school and rural pupils who generally spend less time in sedentary behaviour). The exploratory analyses showed comparable findings. Conclusions: This regulatory intervention has been effective in reducing total and specific types of sedentary behaviour among Chinese children and adolescents, with the potential to reduce health inequalities. International researchers and policy makers may explore the feasibility and acceptability of implementing regulatory interventions on sedentary behaviour elsewhere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and aims: On 1 May 2018, Scotland introduced a minimum unit price (MUP) of £0.50 for alcohol, with one UK unit of alcohol being 10 ml of pure ethanol. This study measured the association between MUP and changes in the volume of alcohol‐related ambulance call‐outs in the overall population and in call‐outs subsets (night‐time call‐outs and subpopulations with higher incidence of alcohol‐related harm). Design: An interrupted time−series (ITS) was used to measure variations in the daily volume of alcohol‐related call‐outs. We performed uncontrolled ITS on both the intervention and control group and a controlled ITS built on the difference between the two series. Data were from electronic patient clinical records from the Scottish Ambulance Service. Setting and cases: Alcohol‐related ambulance call‐outs (intervention group) and total ambulance call‐outs for people aged under 13 years (control group) in Scotland, from December 2017 to March 2020. Measurements Call‐outs were deemed alcohol‐related if ambulance clinicians indicated that alcohol was a 'contributing factor' in the call‐out and/or a validated Scottish Ambulance Service algorithm determined that the call‐out was alcohol‐related. Findings No statistically significant association in the volume of call‐outs was found in both the uncontrolled series [step change = 0.062, 95% confidence interval (CI) = −0.012, 0.0135 P = 0.091; slope change = −0.001, 95% CI = −0.001, 0.1 × 10−3P = 0.139] and controlled series (step change = −0.01, 95% CI = −0.317, 0.298 P = 0.951; slope change = −0.003, 95% CI = −0.008, 0.002 P = 0.257). Similarly, no significant changes were found for the night‐time series or for any population subgroups. Conclusions: There appears to be no statistically significant association between the introduction of minimum unit pricing for alcohol in Scotland and the volume of alcohol‐related ambulance call‐outs. This was observed overall, across subpopulations and at night‐time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leading digit bias is a heuristic whereby humans overemphasize the left‐most digit when evaluating numbers (e.g., 9.99 vs. 10.00). The bias might affect the interpretation of hemoglobin results and influence red cell transfusion in hospitalized patients. Study Design and Methods: Adults who received a red cell transfusion while registered at the University Health Network (Toronto, Canada) between January 1, 2016 and January 1, 2022 (n = 6 years) were included. The primary analysis excluded apheresis, red cell disorders, radiology suites, and operating rooms. The primary comparison was a regression discontinuity analysis of transfusion occurrence above and below the hemoglobin threshold of 79 g/L (local units). Additional analyses tested other leading digit and control thresholds (71, 81, and 91 g/L). Secondary analyses explored temporal covariates and clinical subgroups. Results: A total of 211,872 red cell transfusions were identified over the study period (median pre‐transfusion hemoglobin 76 g/L; interquartile range = 69–92 g/L), with 107,790 inpatient transfusions in the primary analysis. The 79 g/L threshold showed 815 fewer red cell units above the threshold (95% confidence interval [CI]: −1215 to −415). The 69 g/L threshold showed 2813 fewer transfused units (95% CI: −4407 to −1220), and 89 g/L showed 40 fewer units (95% CI: −408 to 328). The effect was accentuated during daytime, weekday, and May–June months, persisted in analyses including all transfusions, and was absent at control thresholds. Conclusion: Leading digit bias might have a modest influence on the decision to transfuse red cells. The findings may inform practice guidelines and quasi‐experimental study design in transfusion research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: To assess the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic associated governmental restrictions on physical activity and sedentary behavior of school-going adolescents in India and its effect on nutrition and health status. Methods: This was a before-after natural experiment study that recorded paired data of 449 (206 boys) school-going adolescents. COVID-19 related governmental measures (March 24, 2020 till February 2021) were taken as the natural experiment. The change in proportion of adolescents who met the recommended amount of physical activity guidelines and change in sedentary and dietary behaviors and body mass index (BMI) were compared. Results: The proportion of adolescents performing adequate physical activity decreased from 33.9% to 30.7% (OR 1.2,95% CI 0.9,1.6) during the pandemic. Fruit intake increased by 8.1% during the pandemic while junk food intake decreased by 17% during the pandemic. Mean (SD) BMI z-scores increased from −0.7)1.4) to −0.5)1.3) (P < 0.001). Conclusion: While there was a small decrease in the proportion of physically active adolescents during the pandemic, a shift towards healthier dietary habits was seen. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how expectations of fund flows causally affect fund performance by exploiting a quasi-natural experiment in the Australian pension system where an unexpected policy change temporarily allowed fund withdrawals from a prespecified date in the future. Using fractions of young members, middle-aged members, and government co-contributions for low-income earners as instrumental variables, we find an insignificant effect of expected fund outflows on performance. A potential explanation is that Australian superannuation funds preemptively engage in liquidity management in response to changes in expectations of future fund flows and this helps to limit direct and indirect costs in the rebalancing process. JEL Classification: G11, G12, G14, G23, G51 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and objectives Schools play a crucial role in facilitating physical activity among children, but the COVID-19 pandemic has affected both children’s physical activity and the school environment. It is essential to understand between-school differences in children’s physical activity post lockdown, to determine if and how the role of schools has changed. Design and participants Active-6 is a natural experiment comparing postlockdown accelerometer-estimated physical activity to a pre-COVID-19 comparator group. Accelerometer and individual data were collected on 1296 children aged 10–11 pre-COVID-19 (2017–8), with school characteristics collected from the 50 schools they attended. Post lockdown, we collected accelerometer, individual and school data from 393 children in 23 of the same schools and 436 children in 27 of the same schools in 2021 (Wave 1) and 2022 (Wave 2), respectively. Methods Sources of variation (between-school, between-pupil and within-pupil) in child weekday moderate to vigorous physical activity at each wave were modelled using linear mixed-effects models with school-level wave random coefficients. We extended the model to estimate the proportion of between-school variation explained by school policy, curriculum and physical environment factors and school-aggregated pupil characteristics. We also explored the extent to which postlockdown differences in moderate to vigorous physical activity were mediated by individual or school factors. Results Between-school variation comprised 13% of the total variation pre-COVID-19, 7% in Wave 1 and 13% in Wave 2. School factors associated with moderate to vigorous physical activity were the following: whether physical education was compromised due to space (often: 9 minutes lower moderate to vigorous physical activity; sometimes: 5.4 minutes lower); high after-school club attendance (7 minutes higher moderate to vigorous physical activity for each additional club attended on average in the school); cycle training policy (4 minutes higher moderate to vigorous physical activity); and higher prevalence of active travel (1 minute higher moderate to vigorous physical activity for each 10% point increase in prevalence). These factors explained 22% of the between-school variation pre-COVID-19, and 72% at Wave 2. The relative importance changed, with cycle training policy and active travel being the most important pre-COVID-19 and cycle training policy, active after-school clubs and compromised physical education space most important in Wave 2. No factors were found to mediate the postlockdown differences in moderate to vigorous physical activity, except compromised physical education space, which had a suppressor effect in Wave 2. Limitations Only 27 of the initial 50 schools participated post lockdown, limiting our ability to make comparisons across waves. Sample sizes were additionally affected by missing data for some variables. Conclusions and future work While schools continue to play an important role in facilitating children’s physical activity, the factors that contribute to this have changed post-COVID-19, with cycle training, active after-school clubs and ensuring physical education is prioritised even when space is limited now explaining nearly three-quarters of the between-school variation in children’s moderate to vigorous physical activity. School-level interventions that focus on these areas, and policies that support them, may offer the potential to increase children’s physical activity. Funding This article presents independent research funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme as award number NIHR131847. Plain language summary What was the question? Schools are important in helping children to be physically active. How active children are differs between schools. We wanted to know whether this has changed after the COVID-19 lockdowns. We also looked at features of the school, like equipment in the playground or being active in lessons, that might explain these differences. What did we do? We collected activity data from 10- to 11-year-olds from 50 schools around Bristol (United Kingdom) before and after the COVID-19 lockdowns. Children also told us about how they travelled to school and whether they went to after-school sports or exercise clubs. We asked schools about their policies and lessons. Finally, we collected data on the playground and surroundings. What did we find? In the first 6 months after lockdowns, schools had a much smaller role in children’s activity. But after a year, schools were once again an important influence on how active children were. We found that the school features that affected children’s activity had changed. Before the pandemic, the things that helped children most to be active were learning to ride a bike at school, and walking or cycling to school. After the pandemic, offering lots of after-school sports clubs was more important. Schools that struggled with physical education lessons because of a lack of space had fewer active pupils. What does this mean? Schools continue to play an important role in helping children be active. But this role has changed after the lockdowns. In the future, schools could help keep children active by offering plenty of after-school clubs and help children to learn to ride a bike. Also, it is important to make sure that physical education lessons are a priority, even when there is not much space.