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Background: Despite the importance of timely management of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA), delays exist in its diagnosis and treatment.Objective: To perform a systematic literature review to identify strategies addressing these delays to inform an American College of Rheumatology (ACR)/European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) taskforce.Methods: The authors searched literature published between January 1985 and November 2010, and ACR and EULAR abstracts between 2007-2010. Additional information was obtained through a grey literature search, a survey conducted through ACR and EULAR, and a hand search of the literature.Results: (1) From symptom onset to primary care, community case-finding strategies, including the use of a questionnaire and autoantibody testing, have been designed to identify patients with early IA. Several websites provided information on IA but were of varying quality and insufficient to aid early referral. (2) At a primary care level, education programmes and patient self-administered questionnaires identified patients with potential IA for referral to rheumatology. Many guidelines emphasised the need for early referral with one providing specific referral criteria. (3) Once referred, early arthritis clinics provided a point of early access for rheumatology assessment. Triage systems, including triage clinics, helped prioritise clinic appointments for patients with IA. Use of referral forms standardised information required, further optimising the triage process. Wait times for patients with acute IA were also reduced with development of rapid access systems.Conclusions: This review identified three main areas of delay to care for patients with IA and potential solutions for each. A co-ordinated effort will be required by the rheumatology and primary care community to address these effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: We aimed to develop a prediction model identifying people presenting to primary care with musculoskeletal symptoms likely to be anti-CCP positive and therefore at risk of developing rheumatoid arthritis (RA)., Methods: Participants aged ≥16 years, with new-onset non-specific musculoskeletal symptoms and no history of clinical synovitis, completed a symptom questionnaire and had an anti-CCP test. Model development used LASSO-penalised logistic regression, performance was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and decision curve analysis, model over-fit was estimated using bootstrapping and cross-validation. Participants were followed-up at 12 months for RA or seronegative/undifferentiated inflammatory arthritis (IA) diagnosis., Results: Analysis included 6879 participants; 203 (2.95%) anti-CCP positive. Eleven predictors were retained: male sex, first-degree relative with RA, ever smoked, and joint pain in: back, neck, shoulders, wrists, hands/fingers, thumbs, knees, feet/toes. AUROC was 0.65 (95% CI:(0.61, 0.69), optimism = 0.03). Using a 4% decision threshold, the model recommended an anti-CCP test in 1288 (18.7%) participants, 78 (6.1%) of whom were anti-CCP positive, compared with 125/5591 (2.2%) below the threshold. Net benefit was 0.0040 (0.0020 corrected). Forty-eight participants were diagnosed with IA/RA within 12 months. Of those who were above the threshold and anti-CCP positive, 32.1% developed IA/RA compared with 0.4% of those who were anti-CCP negative. Of those below the threshold, 0.3% were diagnosed with IA/RA., Conclusions: Targeted anti-CCP testing in primary care may aid earlier identification of people at risk of RA, prompting specialist referral to rheumatology for earlier diagnosis and initiation of disease modifying therapy., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To investigate, in anti-CCP antibody-positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms but no clinical synovitis (CCP+ at-risk), the additional value of US for the prediction of inflammatory arthritis. Furthermore, to define a concise US protocol for feasible risk prediction., Methods: Demographic and clinical data were collected in 417 CCP+ at-risk (Leeds CCP cohort) with a baseline US scan assessing synovitis and bone erosions in 36 joints, and a follow-up duration ≥24 months. Multivariable binary regression models for inflammatory arthritis development at 24 months evaluated routine clinical variables associated with inflammatory arthritis alone ('clinical' model) and combined with a 36-joint US scanning protocol ('clinical-US extended' model). A 'clinical-US short' model was also developed., Results: At 24 months, 92/417 (22.1%) CCP+ at-risk developed inflammatory arthritis (median time 7 months, interquartile range 3-12). The 'clinical-US extended' model performed better than the 'clinical' model [area under the curve (AUC) 0.788 vs AUC 0.731, respectively, P < 0.001] with an odds ratio for inflammatory arthritis development of 3.18 (95% CI 1.80-5.63) for US synovitis and 2.54 (95% CI 1.21-5.37) for bone erosions. The 'clinical-US short' model, which retained the wrists, knees and MTP5 joints, performed better (AUC 0.782) than the 'clinical' model (P < 0.001) and similarly (difference in Akaike information criteria <2) to the 'clinical-US extended' model., Conclusions: US provides valuable information for predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis in CCP+ individuals both alone and in addition to clinical variables. US synovitis was associated with a 3-fold increase risk of inflammatory arthritis development. A concise US protocol of six joints provides clinically feasible risk prediction in CCP+ at-risk., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To investigate the role of third-generation anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP3) antibodies in predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in individuals with new musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms and a negative second-generation anti-CCP antibody test (anti-CCP2-)., Methods: 469 anti-CCP2- individuals underwent baseline anti-CCP3 testing (QUANTA Lite CCP3; Inova Diagnostics) and received a post enrolment 12-month questionnaire. A rheumatologist confirmed or excluded diagnosis of IA. Univariable/multivariable analyses were performed to assess the value of anti-CCP3 in predicting IA development in these anti-CCP2- individuals., Results: Only 16/469 (3.4%) anti-CCP2- individuals had a positive anti-CCP3 test. Of these 16 individuals, 4 developed IA. In addition, 61/469 (13.0%) anti-CCP2- individuals self-reported, to have developed, IA. Progression was confirmed in 43/61 of them (70.5%); of whom 30/43 (69.8%) and 13/43 (30.2%) were given a diagnosis of IA and rheumatoid arthritis (RA), respectively. In qualitative univariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity was associated with self-reported progression (p<0.01) and IA (p=0.03), but not with RA. Anti-CCP3 levels differed significantly between progressors and non-progressors (p<0.01) for all three categories. At the manufacturer's cut-off, OR for progression ranged from 2.4 (95% CI 0.5 to 18.6; RA) to 7.5 (95% CI 2.3 to 24.0; self-reported progression). Interestingly, when cut-offs for anti-CCP3 were optimised, lower values (≥5 units) significantly increased the OR for progression in all three categories. In multivariable analysis, anti-CCP3 positivity at the manufacturer's cut-off did not remain associated with IA progression, while this lower cut-off value (≥5 units) was associated with diagnosis of RA (p=0.02)., Conclusions: Anti-CCP3 testing could improve the prediction of IA development in anti-CCP2- individuals with new MSK symptoms., Competing Interests: Competing interests: ADM has received speaking fees from Janssen. KM reports personal fees from Abbvie, Lilly, Galapagos, UCB and Serac Healthcare outside the submitted work and research grants from Gilead, Serac Healthcare and Lilly. MM is employed at Werfen, a diagnostic company that commercialises the CCP3 assay. He does not have stocks or shares of the company or other incentives for the product. Testing was done at the University of Leeds and MM was not involved. PE reports providing expert advice to Abbvie, Astra-Zeneca, BMS, Boehringer Ingelheim, Galapagos, Gilead, Lilly, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Samsung outside the submitted work. He also reports research grants from AbbVie, BMS, Lilly and Samsung. The remaining authors have declared no conflicts of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objective: To investigate the efficacy of bDMARDs in patients with RA with RF/ACPA compared with patients without these autoantibodies., Methods: Previous systematic literature reviews performed by EULAR RA management task forces were searched for qualifying RCTs. RCTs investigating the efficacy of bDMARDs and including both autoantibody-positive (≤80% of total population) and -negative RA patients were eligible. For trials comparing bDMARD+csDMARD vs csDMARD, relative risks (RR) comparing two groups (RF + vs RF-, ACPA+ vs ACPA-) were calculated for efficacy outcomes for each arm. Subsequently, relative risk ratios (RRRs) were computed, as the ratio of RR of the bDMARD-arm and the RR from the non-bDMARD-arm. Pooled effects were obtained with random effect meta-analyses., Results: Data from 28 eligible RCTs were analyzed, pooling 23 studies in three subgroups: 6 including csDMARD-naïve patients, 14 csDMARD-IR, and 3 TNFi-IR patients. In csDMARD-naïve and csDMARD-IR patients, seropositivity was not associated with a better response to bDMARDs: pooled 6-month ACR20 RRRs 1.02 (0.88-1.18) and 1.09 (0.90-1.32), respectively. Other outcomes showed no difference between groups either. In TNFi-IR patients, based on 3 trials, the 6-month ACR20 RRR was 2.28 (1.31-3.95), favoring efficacy in seropositive patients. Other outcomes mostly showed no significant difference between the groups. Based on the mode of action, efficacy was comparable between RF-positive and RF-negative patients for both TNFi and non-TNFi treatment and also for the individual bDMARDs., Conclusion: The effect of bDMARDs is generally comparable in patients with and without RF/ACPA, regardless of the patient population, the mechanism of action or individual drug used., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Subclinical synovitis occurs in a third of individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis. The objective of this study was to assess the reversibility of subclinical synovitis in individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis who are positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody with musculoskeletal symptoms and investigate factors associated with its resolution within 12 months., Methods: We conducted a single-centre, prospective, cohort study in the UK, recruiting individuals aged 18 years or older who were anti-CCP-positive with a new non-specific musculoskeletal symptom but no clinical synovitis. Referrals were made through primary or secondary care. Participants attended a baseline visit, which included a clinical assessment, blood tests, patient questionnaires, and a musculoskeletal ultrasound scan (ie, of wrists and metacarpophalangeal, proximal interphalangeal, and metatarsophalangeal joints), and then follow-up visits every 3 months for the first year, with a repeat ultrasound scan every 12 months. Participants with subclinical synovitis (ie, grey scale ≥1 and power Doppler ≥1) in at least one joint at baseline were selected for this analysis. Investigation of good prognostic factors by 12 months was done first using univariable analysis to identify significant factors in participants with no missing data. Then receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to establish the optimal cutoffs for significant continuous variables. Finally, a modified Poisson regression approach was performed to identify the best prediction model and was adjusted for confounders, using data from all participants, with missing values imputed. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02012764., Findings: Between June 30, 2008, and Feb 24, 2020, 451 participants consented to participate in the CCP study and 122 (27%) individuals had subclinical synovitis at baseline, of whom 90 (74%) had data available at 12 months. Mean age was 54·1 years (SD 12·5), and 63 (70%) of 90 participants were women and 27 (30%) were men. Subclinical synovitis resolved in 43 (48%) of 90 participants, whereas subclinical synovitis persisted in 47 (52%) participants, 27 (57%) of whom developed clinical synovitis within 12 months. In the multivariable analysis, low anti-CCP titre (relative risk [RR] 1·52, 95% CI 1·04-2·22), negative rheumatoid factor (1·54, 0·92-2·58), subclinical synovitis in only one joint (1·62, 1·04-2·50), and an erythrocyte sedimentation rate of 15 mm/h or lower (1·82, 1·15-2·87) were predictors of subclinical synovitis resolution within 12 months (ie, good prognostic factors). ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0·84 (95% CI 0·76-0·92; p<0·0001). Resolution occurred in seven (100%) of seven participants with all four factors present, and in only one (7%) of 14 participants with none of the factors present., Interpretation: In individuals who were anti-CCP-positive, subclinical synovitis disappeared in approximately half of the participants by 12 months and was associated with the presence of good prognostic factors. Subclinical synovitis should be interpreted in the context of these additional factors., Funding: National Institute for Health Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests KM has received grants from Lilly, Gilead, and Serac Life Sciences; consulting fees from Serac Life Sciences; and honoraria from AbbVie, Lilly, and Galapagos. PE has received grants from Lilly and Samsung; received consulting fees from AbbVie, AnaptysBio, BMS, Gilead, Lilly, and Novartis; received honoraria from AbbVie, BMS, Gilead, Lilly, Novartis, and Sandoz; received support for attending meetings from Lilly; and reports participation on data safety monitoring or advisory board by AstraZeneca. LG-M, JK, LD, ADM, JLN, KH, and RC declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Background: Inflammatory arthritis (IA) is an immune-related condition defined by the presence of clinical synovitis. Its most common form is rheumatoid arthritis., Objective: To develop scores for predicting IA in at-risk persons using multidimensional biomarkers., Design: Prospective observational cohort study., Setting: Single-center, Leeds, United Kingdom., Participants: Persons with new musculoskeletal symptoms, a positive test result for anticitrullinated protein antibodies, and no clinical synovitis and followed for 48 weeks or more or until IA occurred., Measurements: A simple score was developed using logistic regression, and a comprehensive score was developed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox proportional hazards regression. Internal validation with bootstrapping was estimated, and a decision curve analysis was done., Results: Of 455 participants, 32.5% (148 of 455) developed IA, and 15.4% (70 of 455) developed it within 1 year. The simple score identified 249 low-risk participants with a false negative rate of 5% (and 206 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 72%). The comprehensive score identified 119 high-risk participants with a false-positive rate of 29% (and 336 low-risk participants with a false-negative rate of 19%); 40% of high-risk participants developed IA within 1 year and 71% within 5 years., Limitations: External validation is required. Recruitment occurred over 13 years, with lower rates of IA in later years. There was geographic variation in laboratory testing and recruitment availability., Conclusion: The simple score identified persons at low risk for IA who were less likely to need secondary care. The comprehensive score identified high-risk persons who could benefit from risk stratification and preventive measures. Both scores may be useful in clinical care and should also be useful in clinical trials., Primary Funding Source: National Institute for Health and Care Research Leeds Biomedical Research Centre., Competing Interests: Disclosures: Disclosures can be viewed at www.acponline.org/authors/icmje/ConflictOfInterestForms.do?msNum=M23-0272.

Objectives: To investigate whether anti-CCP2-positive at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CCP2+ at-risk) develop US subclinical synovitis before inflammatory arthritis and if US subclinical synovitis can be predicted., Methods: First, US scans of CCP2+ at-risk individuals who developed inflammatory arthritis ('progressors') were reviewed for subclinical synovitis prior to inflammatory arthritis development. Patients in whom the pre-progression US scan was negative but the scan was conducted >6 months before progression were excluded. Subsequently, regression analyses were performed to identify predictors of US synovitis in CCP2+ at-risk individuals without baseline US abnormalities who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset., Results: US subclinical synovitis was detected in one or more scan in 75 of 97 progressors (77.3%) {median time to inflammatory arthritis development from first evidence of US synovitis 26.5 weeks [interquartile range (IQR) 7-60]}, in whom one or more scan was available, excluding those with a negative scan >6 months from inflammatory arthritis development (n = 38). In 220 CCP2+ at-risk individuals with normal baseline US scans, who had one or more longitudinal US scan and a complete dataset, US synovitis was detected in 69/220 (31.4%) [median time to first developing US synovitis 56.4 weeks (IQR 33.0-112.0)]. In the multivariable analysis, only anti-CCP3 antibodies were predictive for the development of US synovitis [odds ratio 4.75 (95% CI 1.97, 11.46); P < 0.01]., Conclusions: In anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals, a stage of subclinical synovitis usually precedes the development of inflammatory arthritis. Anti-CCP2+/CCP3+ individuals without clinical or US subclinical synovitis may represent the optimal window of opportunity for intervention to prevent joint disease., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Background: Musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms are among the commonest reasons for primary care assessments; however, few individuals will be diagnosed with an inflammatory arthritis (IA) within the following year. The purpose of this study was to investigate, in individuals with new MSK symptoms, the association between patient factors and risk of progression to IA, in order to optimise primary care referrals to rheumatology., Methods: Individuals ≥16 years old with new non-specific MSK symptoms and no clinical synovitis were recruited by primary care across the UK from July 2007 until May 2019. Those testing positive for the anti-CCP2 assay (anti-CCP+) were invited to Leeds for follow-up. Subjects with a negative result (anti-CCP-) were sent a 1-year questionnaire, and general practitioners were contacted to confirm whether the individual had been diagnosed with an IA by a rheumatologist. Predictors for progression were assessed using multivariable regression analysis., Results: Six thousand seven hundred eighty individuals were recruited: 3% were anti-CCP+, of whom 45% progressed to IA, predominantly rheumatoid arthritis. Anti-CCP+ participants with high antibody levels had an odds ratio (OR) for progression to IA of 9.42 [P < 0.001, 95% CI (3.13-28.30)], hand pain, OR 2.74 [P = 0.043, 95% CI (1.03-7.27)] and foot pain, OR 4.10 [P = 0.003, 95% CI (1.59-10.54)]. In low-level anti-CCP+ individuals, absence of pain in hands or feet had a negative predictive value of 96% for progression to IA. One-year follow-up data were available for 5640 anti-CCP- individuals, of whom 53 were diagnosed with IA (0.93%). Pain in hands, OR 2.51 [P = 0.018, 95% CI (1.17-5.39)] or knees, OR 3.03 [P = 0.003, 95% CI (1.47-6.25)] were associated with development of IA within 12 months., Conclusions: This is the largest prospective primary care study of individuals at risk of IA, and the first one to prospectively investigate the outcome of MSK symptoms in a large anti-CCP- cohort. High anti-CCP levels and pain in hands/feet indicated an increased likelihood of progression to IA. In patients with low anti-CCP level and no pain in the hands/feet, progression is unlikely. In anti-CCP- patients, those with hand or knee pain were at increased risk of progression. This study demonstrates that routinely available tests and joint symptoms provide useful discrimination that may be used to prioritise referrals to rheumatology and avoid a delayed diagnosis., Trial Registration: NCT, NCT02012764 . Registered 25 January 2007., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Objectives: To evaluate real-world efficacy of approved JAK inhibitors (JAKi) tofacitinib and baricitinib in a large, single-centre cohort of RA patients across the treatment pathway, including those refractory to multiple biologic drugs., Methods: All RA patients, treated with tofacitinib (from time of compassionate access scheme) or baricitinib since approval in 2017 had DAS28-CRP scores and components recorded at baseline, 3 and 6 months (with retrospective data for compassionate access scheme). Efficacy was evaluated in the total cohort, each treatment group, and subgroups of number of prior biologic classes failed., Results: One hundred and fifteen patients were treated with a JAKi (tofacitinib 54, baricitinib 69, 8 both); 76.4% female; mean (s.d.) age 57.3 (14.3) years. On average patients had received three previous bDMARDs; 11 (9.6%) were bDMARD naïve. Combined group baseline DAS28-CRP (s.d.) 5.62(1.14) improved by 1.49(1.44) and 1.67(1.61) at 3 and 6 months, respectively, comparable in individual JAKi groups; with 24% in at least low disease activity at 3 months. The biggest improvement was observed in the biologic-naïve group (mean DAS28-CRP improved from 5.16-2.14 after 6 months); while those with prior exposure to minimum three bDMARD classes had DAS28-CRP improvement of >1.2. Five out of 8 patients treated with both JAKi sequentially responded. Twelve patients previously unresponsive to IL-6 blockade responded to JAKi. No unexpected safety events were recorded. Two cases of venous thromboembolism were observed., Conclusion: JAK inhibition is effective in a real-world population of RA patients, including in a subset of patients refractory to multiple previous bDMARDs., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: To investigate the prevalence, distribution and predictive value for the development of inflammatory arthritis (IA) of conventional radiography (CR) bone erosions (BE) in anti-CCP positive (CCP+) at-risk individuals with musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis., Methods: Baseline CR of the hands and feet of 418 CCP+ at-risk individuals were analysed. The presence of US-BE was explored in the anatomical areas in which CR-BE were reported. Hands and feet CR at the time of progression were analysed in a subset of individuals who developed IA (73/123, 59.3%). Logistic regression analyses were performed to calculate the predictive value of baseline CR-BE for the development of IA in 394 CCP+ individuals with ≥1 follow-up visit., Results: BE were detected in 17/418 (4.1%) CCP+ at-risk individuals (median Simple Erosions Narrowing Score-BE = 2.0, IQR: 1.0-2.0; median Sharp van der Heijde score-BE = 4.0, IQR: 3.0-8.5), most frequently in the foot joints (11/17, 64.7% individuals). A total of 123/394 (31.2%) CCP+ at-risk individuals developed IA; 7/17 (41.2%) with, and 116/377 (30.8%) without BE on CR (P = 0.37). US-BE were found in 4/7 (57.1%) individuals with CR-BE who developed IA, but only in 1/10 (10.0%) who did not. At the time of progression, new BE were detected in 4/73 (5.5%) CCP+ individuals on repeated CR. In the regression analyses, baseline CR-BE were not predictive for the development of IA., Conclusions: In CCP+ at-risk individuals with MSK symptoms, CR-detected BE are uncommon and do not predict the development of IA., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: To 1) determine the prevalence of anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide 3 (anti-CCP3) antibodies in anti-CCP2 antibody-positive (anti-CCP2+) at-risk individuals, and 2) explore the additional value of anti-CCP3 antibodies in anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals for predicting progression to inflammatory arthritis., Methods: Stored serum samples obtained from 347 anti-CCP2+ (BioPlex 2200; Bio-Rad) at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis were tested for anti-CCP3 antibodies. Anti-CCP2 titers were categorized as low or high, and anti-CCP3 titers were categorized as negative, low, or strong. Progression to inflammatory arthritis was defined as the development of clinical synovitis in ≥1 joint. Only subjects with ≥1 follow-up visit were included in the progression analysis (n = 291)., Results: In the 347 samples included, anti-CCP3 antibody titers tended to be either negative (n = 138 [39.7%]) or strongly positive (n =189 [54.4%]), with very few subjects showing a low titer (n = 20 [5.7%]). In contrast, for anti-CCP2 antibodies, more low titers were observed (n = 103 [29.7%]). Eighty-eight of 291 subjects (30.2%) developed inflammatory arthritis. The rate of progression to inflammatory arthritis in the low-titer anti-CCP2 group and the high-titer anti-CCP2 group fell from 7.5% to 3.3% and from 38.9% to 9.8%, respectively, when anti-CCP3 was negative. Progression in the high-titer anti-CCP2 group increased from 38.9% to 48.4% when anti-CCP3 was strongly positive. The area under the curve was 0.72 for anti-CCP2 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.66, 0.78) and 0.76 for anti-CCP3 (95% CI 0.70, 0.81) for assessment of progression. In the multivariable analysis, the odds ratio for the development of inflammatory arthritis in anti-CCP3+ subjects was 1.73 (95% CI 1.20, 2.51) (P < 0.01)., Conclusion: Anti-CCP3 antibodies improve the prediction of inflammatory arthritis in anti-CCP2+ at-risk individuals. The impact of anti-CCP3 antibody status for the risk stratification of individuals with high-titer anti-CCP2 is particularly notable., (© 2020 The Authors. Arthritis & Rheumatology published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To investigate, in anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide antibody positive (CCP+) at-risk individuals without clinical synovitis, the prevalence and distribution of ultrasound (US) bone erosions (BE), their correlation with subclinical synovitis and their association with the development of inflammatory arthritis (IA)., Methods: Baseline US scans of 419 CCP+ at-risk individuals were analysed. BE were evaluated in the classical sites for rheumatoid arthritis damage: the second and fifth metacarpophalangeal (MCP2 and MCP5) joints, and the fifth metatarsophalangeal (MTP5) joints. US synovitis was defined as synovial hypertrophy (SH) ≥2 or SH ≥1+power Doppler signal ≥1. Subjects with ≥1 follow-up visit were included in the progression analysis (n=400)., Results: BE were found in ≥1 joint in 41/419 subjects (9.8%), and in 55/2514 joints (2.2%). The prevalence of BE was significantly higher in the MTP5 joints than in the MCP joints (p<0.01). A significant correlation between BE and US synovitis in the MTP5 joints was detected (Cramer's V=0.37, p<0.01). The OR for the development of IA (ever) was highest for the following: BE in >1 joint 10.6 (95% CI 1.9 to 60.4, p<0.01) and BE and synovitis in ≥1 MTP5 joint 5.1 (95% CI 1.4 to 18.9, p=0.02). In high titre CCP+ at-risk individuals, with positive rheumatoid factor and BE in ≥1 joint, the OR increased to 16.9 (95% CI 2.1-132.8, p<0.01)., Conclusions: In CCP+ at-risk individuals, BE in the feet appear to precede the onset of clinical synovitis. BE in >1 joint, and BE in combination with US synovitis in the MTP5 joints, are the most predictive for the development of clinical arthritis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: This study was conducted while ADM was an ARTICULUM Fellow. KM reports personal fees from AbbVie, UCB and Eli Lilly, outside the submitted work. RJW has received honoraria from AbbVie, Novartis and GE for ultrasound-related educational activities. PE reports consultant fees from BMS, AbbVie, MSD, Pfizer, Novartis and Roche, outside the submitted work. He also reports research grants from UCB, AbbVie, BMS, Pfizer, MSD and Roche, outside the submitted work., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Importance: The prevalence of periodontitis is increased in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and periodontopathic bacteria can citrullinate proteins. Periodontitis may, therefore, be an initiator of RA and a target for prevention. Periodontal disease and periodontal bacteria have not been investigated in at-risk individuals with RA autoimmunity but no arthritis., Objective: To examine periodontal disease and periodontopathic bacteria in anti-cyclic citrullinated protein (anti-CCP) antibody-positive at-risk individuals without arthritis., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study took place at a teaching hospital from April 27, 2015, to May 8, 2017. Forty-eight anti-CCP-positive individuals without arthritis (CCP+ at-risk) were recruited nationally. Twenty-six patients with early RA (ERA) and 32 healthy control individuals were recruited locally. Data were analyzed between June 1, 2017, and December 1, 2017., Interventions: Periodontal assessment and examination of joints using ultrasonography., Main Outcomes and Measures: Prevalence of diseased periodontal sites, clinical periodontitis, and periodontal inflamed surface area in CCP+ at-risk individuals compared with patients with ERA and healthy individuals matched for age and smoking. Paired-end sequencing of DNA from subgingival plaque from diseased and healthy periodontal sites was performed and DNA was profiled and analyzed., Results: A total of 48 CCP+ at-risk individuals (mean [SD] age, 51.9 [11.4] years; 31 [65%] female), 26 patients with ERA (mean [SD] age, 54.4 [16.7] years; 14 [54%] female), and 32 healthy individuals (mean [SD] age, 49.4 [15.3] years; 19 [59%] female) were recruited. Of 48 CCP+ at-risk individuals, 46 had no joint inflammation on ultrasonography. Thirty-five CCP+ at-risk individuals (73%), 12 healthy individuals (38%), and 14 patients with ERA (54%) had clinical periodontitis. The median (interquartile range) percentage of periodontal sites with disease was greater in CCP+ at-risk individuals compared with healthy individuals (3.3% [0%-11.3%] vs 0% [0%-0.7%]) and similar to patients with ERA (1.1% [0%-13.1%]). Median (interquartile range) periodontal inflamed surface area was higher in CCP+ at-risk individuals compared with healthy individuals (221 mm2 [81-504 mm2] vs 40 mm2 [12-205 mm2]). Patients with CCP+ at-risk had increased relative abundance of Porphyromonas gingivalis (but not Aggregatibacter actinomycetemcomitans) at healthy periodontal sites compared with healthy individuals (effect size, 3.00; 95% CI, 1.71-4.29) and patients with ERA (effect size, 2.14; 95% CI, 0.77-3.52)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study found increased prevalence of periodontitis and P gingivalis in CCP+ at-risk individuals. This suggests periodontitis and P gingivalis are associated with disease initiation and could be targets for preventive interventions in RA.

Interosseous tendon inflammation (ITI) has been described in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Whether ITI occurs in at-risk individuals before the onset of clinical synovitis is unknown., Objectives: To investigate, by MRI, ITI in anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP)-positive at-risk individuals (CCP +at risk) and to describe the anatomy, prevalence and clinical associations across the RA continuum., Methods: Hand MRI was performed in 93 CCP + at risk, 47 early RA (ERA), 28 established 'late' RA (LRA) and 20 healthy controls (HC) and scored for ITI, flexor tenosynovitis (TSV) and RA MRI scoring at the metacarpophalangeal joints (MCPJs). Cadaveric and histological studies were performed to explore the anatomical basis for MRI ITI., Results: The proportion of subjects with ITI and the number of inflamed interosseous tendons (ITs) increased along the disease continuum (p<0.001): 19% of CCP +at risk, 49% of ERA and 57% of LRA had ≥1 IT inflamed . ITI was not found in any HC. ITI was more frequently identified in tender MCPJs compared with nontender MCPJs (28% vs 12%, respectively). No IT tenosynovial sheath was identified in cadavers on dissection or histological studies suggesting MRI findings represent peritendonitis. Dye studies indicated no communication between the IT and the joint., Conclusions: ITI occurs in CCP + at-risk individuals and can precede the onset of clinical synovitis. The ITs may be important nonsynovial extracapsular targets in the development and progression of RA., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Objectives: Imaging of joint inflammation provides a standard against which to derive an updated DAS for RA. Our objectives were to develop and validate a DAS based on reweighting the DAS28 components to maximize association with US-assessed synovitis., Methods: Early RA patients from two observational cohorts (n = 434 and n = 117) and a clinical trial (n = 59) were assessed at intervals up to 104 weeks from baseline; all US scans were within 1 week of clinical exam. There were 899, 163 and 183 visits in each cohort. Associations of combined US grey scale and power Doppler scores (GSPD) with 28 tender joint count and 28 swollen joint count (SJC28), CRP, ESR and general health visual analogue scale were examined in linear mixed model regressions. Cross-validation evaluated model predictive ability. Coefficients learned from training data defined a re-weighted DAS28 that was validated against radiographic progression in independent data (3037 observations; 717 patients)., Results: Of the conventional DAS28 components only SJC28 and CRP were associated with GSPD in all three development cohorts. A two-component model including SJC28 and CRP outperformed a four-component model (R2 = 0.235, 0.392, 0.380 vs 0.232, 0.380, 0.375, respectively). The re-weighted two-component DAS28CRP outperformed conventional DAS28 definitions in predicting GSPD (Δtest log-likelihood <-2.6, P < 0.01), Larsen score and presence of erosions., Conclusion: A score based on SJC28 and CRP alone demonstrated stronger associations with synovitis and radiographic progression than the original DAS28 and should be considered in research on pathophysiological manifestations of early RA. Implications for clinical management of RA remain to be established., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology.)

Objectives: To use high-resolution imaging to characterise palindromic rheumatism (PR) and to compare the imaging pattern observed to that seen in new-onset rheumatoid arthritis (NORA)., Methods: Ultrasound (US) assessment of synovitis, tenosynovitis and non-synovial extracapsular inflammation (ECI) was performed during and between flares in a prospective treatment-naive PR cohort. MRI of the flaring region was performed where possible. For comparison, the same US assessment was also performed in anticyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) positive individuals with musculoskeletal symptoms (CCP+ at risk) and patients with NORA., Results: Thirty-one of 79 patients with PR recruited were assessed during a flare. A high frequency of ECI was identified on US; 19/31 (61%) of patients had ECI including 12/19 (63%) in whom ECI was identified in the absence of synovitis. Only 7/31 (23%) patients with PR had synovitis (greyscale ≥1 and power Doppler ≥1) during flare. In the hands/wrists, ECI was more prevalent in PR compared with NORA and CCP+ at risk (65% vs 29 % vs 6%, p<0.05). Furthermore, ECI without synovitis was specific for PR (42% PR vs 4% NORA (p=0.003) and 6% CCP+ at risk (p=0.0012)). Eleven PR flares were captured by MRI, which was more sensitive than US for synovitis and ECI. 8/31 (26%) patients with PR developed RA and had a similar US phenotype to NORA at progression., Conclusion: PR has a distinct US pattern characterised by reversible ECI, often without synovitis. In patients presenting with new joint swelling, US may refine management by distinguishing relapsing from persistent arthritis., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2019. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Methotrexate (MTX) monotherapy is a common first treatment for rheumatoid arthritis (RA), but many patients do not respond adequately. In order to identify genetic predictors of response, we have combined data from two consortia to carry out a genome-wide study of response to MTX in 1424 early RA patients of European ancestry. Clinical endpoints were change from baseline to 6 months after starting treatment in swollen 28-joint count, tender 28-joint count, C-reactive protein and the overall 3-component disease activity score (DAS28). No single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) reached genome-wide statistical significance for any outcome measure. The strongest evidence for association was with rs168201 in NRG3 (p = 10 -7 for change in DAS28). Some support was also seen for association with ZMIZ1, previously highlighted in a study of response to MTX in juvenile idiopathic arthritis. Follow-up in two smaller cohorts of 429 and 177 RA patients did not support these findings, although these cohorts were more heterogeneous.

Objectives: To compare comorbidities in a cohort of cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) antibody positive patients without or prior to onset of inflammatory arthritis (IA) to those in patients with early IA., Methods: Baseline data from two established cohorts were used. The first recruited people at risk of IA: CCP antibody positive cases without IA (CCP Cohort, n  = 296). The second cohort [the Inflammatory Arthritis CONtinuum study (IACON)] recruited patients with early IA ( n  = 725). Proportions of patients with given comorbidities were compared between cohorts and then logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios (OR) for the CCP cohort having specific comorbidities, compared to IACON patients. Analyses adjusted for gender, age, smoking status, and body mass index., Results: Patients from the CCP cohort were younger (mean age 50, compared to 53 years). The proportion of patients with at least one comorbidity was higher in the IACON than the CCP cohort: (40% compared to 24%, respectively). Results of logistic regression analyses suggested the odds of hypertension, taking a lipid-lowering agent, ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lung disease, and diabetes were not increased in either cohort. However, patients in the CCP cohort were more likely to be taking an antidepressant (OR = 1.62, 95% CI 1.03, 2.56, p  = 0.037)., Conclusion: There was no significant difference in comorbidities among people with CCP antibodies but without IA, compared to those of patients with established IA.

Background: Individuals at risk of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) demonstrate systemic autoimmunity in the form of anti-citrullinated peptide antibodies (ACPA). MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are implicated in established RA. This study aimed to (1) compare miRNA expression between healthy individuals and those at risk of and those that develop RA, (2) evaluate the change in expression of miRNA from "at-risk" to early RA and (3) explore whether these miRNAs could inform a signature predictive of progression from "at-risk" to RA., Methods: We performed global profiling of 754 miRNAs per patient on a matched serum sample cohort of 12 anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (CCP) + "at-risk" individuals that progressed to RA. Each individual had a serum sample from baseline and at time of detection of synovitis, forming the matched element. Healthy controls were also studied. miRNAs with a fold difference/fold change of four in expression level met our primary criterion for selection as candidate miRNAs. Validation of the miRNAs of interest was conducted using custom miRNA array cards on matched samples (baseline and follow up) in 24 CCP+ individuals; 12 RA progressors and 12 RA non-progressors., Results: We report on the first study to use matched serum samples and a comprehensive miRNA array approach to identify in particular, three miRNAs (miR-22, miR-486-3p, and miR-382) associated with progression from systemic autoimmunity to RA inflammation. MiR-22 demonstrated significant fold difference between progressors and non-progressors indicating a potential biomarker role for at-risk individuals., Conclusions: This first study using a cohort with matched serum samples provides important mechanistic insights in the transition from systemic autoimmunity to inflammatory disease for future investigation, and with further evaluation, might also serve as a predictive biomarker.

Objectives: To update the evidence for the efficacy of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to inform European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Task Force treatment recommendations., Methods: MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane databases were searched for phase III or IV (or phase II, if these studies were lacking) randomised controlled trials (RCTs) published between January 2013 and February 2016. Abstracts from the American College of Rheumatology and EULAR conferences were obtained., Results: The RCTs confirmed greater efficacy with a bDMARD+conventional synthetic DMARD (csDMARD) versus a csDMARDs alone (level 1A evidence). Using a treat-to-target strategy approach, commencing and escalating csDMARD therapy and adding a bDMARD in cases of non-response, is an effective approach (1B). If a bDMARD had failed, improvements in clinical response were seen on switching to another bDMARD (1A), but no clear advantage was seen for switching to an agent with another mode of action. Maintenance of clinical response in patients in remission or low disease activity was best when continuing rather than stopping a bDMARD, but bDMARD dose reduction or 'spacing' was possible, with a substantial proportion of patients achieving bDMARD-free remission (2B). RCTs have also demonstrated efficacy of several new bDMARDs and biosimilar DMARDs (1B)., Conclusions: This systematic literature review consistently confirmed the previously reported efficacy of bDMARDs in RA and provided additional information on bDMARD switching and dose reduction., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JS: Amgen, Abbvie, Astra-Zeneca, Astro, BMS, Celgene, Glaxo, ILTOO, Janssen, Merck-Serono, MSD, Novartis-Sandoz, Pfizer, Roche-Chugai, Samsung, UCB. DvdH: AbbVie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Daiichi, Eli-Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, 5, Director of Imaging Rheumatology BV. JWB: Roche, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Pfizer, UCB. GB: UCB, AbbVie, BMS, Hexal, Janssen, Lilly, MSD, Medimmune, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi, Roche. MD, AbbVie, Pfizer, Novartis, MSD. RvV: AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Roche, UCB Pharma, Biotest, Janssen, Eli-Lilly, Merck, Vertex. RL: AbbVie, Amgen, Centocor, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Schering-Plough, UCB, Pfizer, Ablynx, Amgen, Astra-Zeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen (formerly Centocor), Galapagos, Glaxo-Smith-Kline, Novartis, Novo-Nordisk, Merck, TiGenix, Rheumatology Consultancy BV., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objectives: To assess the safety of synthetic (s) and biological (b) disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (DMARDs) for the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to inform the European League Against Rheumatism recommendations for the management of RA., Methods: Systematic literature review (SLR) of observational studies comparing any DMARD with another intervention for the management of patients with RA. All safety outcomes were included. A comparator group was required for the study to be included. Risk of bias was assessed with the Hayden's tool., Results: Twenty-six observational studies addressing diverse safety outcomes of therapy with bDMARDs met eligibility criteria (15 on serious infections, 4 on malignancies). Substantial heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. Together with the evidence from the 2013 SLR, based on 15 studies, 7 at low risk of bias, patients on bDMARDs compared with patients on conventional sDMARDs had a higher risk of serious infections (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.1 to 1.8)-without differences across bDMARDs-a higher risk of tuberculosis (aHR 2.7 to 12.5), but no increased risk of infection by herpes zoster. Patients on bDMARDs did not have an increased risk of malignancies in general, lymphoma or non-melanoma skin cancer, but the risk of melanoma may be slightly increased (aHR 1.5)., Conclusions: These findings confirm the known safety pattern of bDMARDs, including both tumour necrosis factor-α inhibitor (TNFi) and non-TNFi, for the treatment of RA., Competing Interests: Competing interests: JS, Amgen, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, Astro, BMS, Celgene, GlaxoSmithKline, ILTOO, Janssen, Merck-Serono, MSD, Novartis-Sandoz, Pfizer, Roche-Chugai, Samsung, UCB. DvdH, AbbVie, Amgen, Astellas, AstraZeneca, BMS, Celgene, Daiichi, Eli-Lilly, Galapagos, Gilead, Merck, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Sanofi-Aventis, UCB, 5, Director of Imaging Rheumatology BV. MD, AbbVie, Pfizer, Novartis, MSD. RvV, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Pfizer, Roche, UCB Pharma, Biotest, Janssen, Eli-Lilly, Merck, Vertex. JWB, Roche, AbbVie, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Pfizer and UCB. GB, UCB, 2, AbbVie, BMS, Hexal, Janssen, Eli-Lilly, MSD, Medimmune, Novartis, Pfizer, Sanofi-Aventis, Roche. RL, AbbVie, Amgen, Centocor, Novartis, Pfizer, Roche, Schering-Plough, UCB, Pfizer, Ablynx, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Janssen (formerly Centocor), Galapagos, GlaxoSmithKline, Novartis, Novo-Nordisk, Merck, TiGenix, Rheumatology Consultancy BV., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Early diagnosis and treatment improves outcomes for patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Studies have shown that musculoskeletal ultrasound is more sensitive than clinical examination in identifying synovitis. This review aims to address the role of ultrasound in identifying (1) patients with early inflammatory arthritis (IA) at risk of progression to RA and (2) those without clinical synovitis at risk of progression to early IA and therefore early RA., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To determine whether ultrasound can identify anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibody-positive patients without clinical synovitis (CS) who progress to inflammatory arthritis (IA)., Methods: In a prospective study, anti-CCP-positive patients without CS underwent ultrasound imaging of 32 joints (wrists, metacarpophalangeal joints, proximal interphalangeal joints and metatarsophalangeal joints (MTPs)) and were monitored for the development of IA. Associations between baseline ultrasound findings (grey scale (GS), power Doppler (PD) and erosions) and (1) progression to IA and (2) development of CS within an individual joint were measured., Results: Consecutive anti-CCP-positive patients (n=136; mean age 51 years, 100 women) were followed up for median of 18.3 months (range 0.1-79.6). At baseline 96% had GS, 30% had PD and 21% had one or more erosions. IA developed in 57 patients (42%) after median of 8.6 months (range 0.1-52.4). Ultrasound abnormalities (GS ≥2, PD ≥1 or erosion ≥1) were found in 86% at baseline compared with 67% of non-progressors (χ 2 =6.3, p=0.012). Progression to IA was significantly higher in those with ultrasound findings in any joint (excluding MTPs for GS) (GS ≥2: 55% vs 24%, HR (95% CI) 2.3 (1.0 to 4.9), p=0.038; PD ≥2: 75% vs 32%, 3.7 (2.0 to 6.9), p<0.001 and erosion ≥1: 71% vs 34%, 2.9 (1.7 to 5.1), p<0.001). Furthermore, progression occurred earlier with PD ≥2 (median 7.1 vs 52.4 months) and erosion ≥1 (15.4 vs 46.5). At the individual joint level, the trend for progression to CS was more significant for GS and PD (GS ≥2: 26% vs 3%, 9.4 (5.1 to 17.5), p<0.001; PD ≥2: 55% vs 4%, 31.3 (15.6 to 62.9), p<0.001)., Conclusion: Ultrasound features of joint inflammation may be detected in anti-CCP-positive patients without CS. Ultrasound findings predict progression (and rate of progression) to IA, with the risk of progression highest in those with PD signal., Trial Registration Number: NCT02012764; Results., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Objectives: To determine the change in established biomarkers of cardiovascular (CV) risk, namely, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (TC/HDL-C), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and insulin resistance (IR) in patients with early RA treated with two different treat-to-target strategies., Methods: Fasting glucose, lipids, insulin and NT-proBNP were measured at baseline, weeks 26 and 78 in 79 DMARD-naïve RA patients, free of CV disease, as part of a double-blind randomized controlled trial of MTX with either infliximab (IFX) or methylprednisolone as induction therapy. Homeostasis model assessment-estimated IR (HOMA-IR) (glucose*insulin/405) was used to measure IR. Multiple imputation was employed, and linear regression analyses were adjusted for baseline values., Results: Changes in DAS44-CRP did not differ between the treatment arms at weeks 26 and 78. Mean TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP improved in both groups at weeks 26 and 78, although change in NT-proBNP was not statistically significant at week 78. Changes in TC/HDL-C and NT-proBNP were similar between treatment arms, but HOMA-IR values in the IFX + MTX arm were 42% lower than those treated with MTX + methylprednisolone at week 78 (P = 0.003); the difference remained significant after adjustment for baseline BMI, ACPA positivity, smoking status and intramuscular glucocorticoid use (P = 0.007)., Conclusion: When implementing a treat-to-target approach, treatment of early RA was associated with improvement in TC/HDL-C, HOMA-IR and NT-proBNP, and a greater long-term improvement in HOMA-IR was seen in those treated with IFX., Trial Registration: EU Clinical Trials Register, http://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu, Eudract-2005-005013-37; ISRTCNregisrty, http://www.isrctn.com, ISRCTN48638981., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: Around 1% of the population test positive for anti-cyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies. This biomarker predicts the progression to rheumatoid arthritis (RA) but over a variable time frame. To increase its clinical relevance, this study sought to determine (1) if the proportion of anti-CCP-positive individuals could be enriched by case selection of people attending primary care with new non-specific musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms but without clinical synovitis (CS) and (2) whether these individuals progress rapidly to inflammatory arthritis (IA), in particular RA., Methods: In this prospective cohort study, individuals aged ≥18 years with new non-specific MSK symptoms, without CS, were recruited from primary care in the UK. Anti-CCP-positive individuals were invited for follow-up in the rheumatology department, Leeds. Those who tested negative were sent questionnaires 12 months later., Results: 2028 individuals were recruited. Of these, 2.8% (57/2028) were anti-CCP positive, of whom 47% (27/57) developed IA - 24 RA, 1 undifferentiated IA (UIA), 2 polymyositis; 92.6% (25/27) within 12 months, median 1.8 months (IQR 1.0-4.3, range 0.3-16.1). Of the anti-CCP-negative individuals, 1.3% (20/1559) developed IA (1 UIA, 13 RA, 6 psoriatic arthritis); 75% (15/20) within 12 months. The relative risk for developing RA within 12 months in the anti-CCP-positive group was 66.8 (95% CI 32.2 to 138.4, p<0.001); for IA, it was 45.5 (95% CI 25.4 to 81.6, p<0.001)., Conclusions: Selecting individuals with new non-specific MSK symptoms without CS enriched the prevalence of anti-CCP positivity to 2.8%. Those who tested positive had a high risk of rapidly developing RA. The cost-effectiveness of this approach will need to be determined., Trial Registration Number: NCT02012764., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/)

Purpose of Review: Early effective treatment has led to major improvements in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. This review aims to address the treatment of early rheumatoid arthritis, in particular the different therapeutic strategies evaluated in clinical trials to achieve optimal disease control., Recent Findings: The use of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) has significantly improved patient outcomes. Overall, studies using bDMARD induction have shown early clinical improvements, with high proportions achieving remission with minimal radiographic progression. As these drugs are still relatively costly, conventional synthetic DMARDs, as monotherapy or in combination, remain the mainstay of treatment initiation. Good, albeit somewhat slower, responses can be achieved with these drugs. Strategies incorporating glucocorticoids and a treat-to-target approach (i.e. regular monitoring of disease activity and early treatment escalation with a conventional synthetic or b-DMARD, if needed) have shown additional benefit. In patients achieving low disease activity or remission, bDMARD dose reduction and withdrawal, and even drug-free remission have been possible in some., Summary: In patients with early rheumatoid arthritis, conventional synthetic DMARDs and glucocorticoids used within a treat-to-target setting, and the addition of a bDMARD if required, outcomes have improved significantly. A proportion of patients are able to deescalate treatment after bDMARD therapy, with a significant minority achieving drug-free remission.

Objectives: To monitor progression to inflammatory arthritis (IA) in individuals with non-specific musculoskeletal (MSK) symptoms and positive anticyclic citrullinated peptide (anti-CCP) antibodies. To develop a pragmatic model to predict development of IA in this patient group., Methods: In this prospective observational cohort, patients with new non-specific MSK symptoms and positive anti-CCP were recruited from regional primary care and secondary care referrals. Clinical, imaging and serological parameters were assessed at baseline. Cox regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of progression to IA and develop a risk score to stratify patients at presentation., Findings: 100 consecutive patients (73 women, mean age 51 years) were followed up for median 19.8 months (range 0.1-69.0); 50 developed IA after a median 7.9 months (range 0.1-52.4), 34 within 12 months. The majority (43/50) fulfilled the 2010 American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism criteria for rheumatoid arthritis. A model for progression to IA was devised using four variables: tenderness of hand or foot joints, early morning stiffness ≥30 min, high-positive autoantibodies, and positive ultrasonographic power Doppler signal. None of the five individuals at low risk (score 0) progressed to IA, compared with 31% of 29 at moderate risk (1-2) and 62% of 66 at high risk (≥3). Adding shared epitope increased the number at low risk (score 0-1; 0/11 progressed)., Conclusions: In patients presenting with non-specific MSK symptoms and anti-CCP, the risk of progression to IA could be quantified using data available in clinical practice. The proposed risk score may be used to stratify patients for early therapeutic intervention., Trial Registration Number: NCT02012764 at ClinicalTrials.gov., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs have significantly improved outcomes for patients with rheumatoid arthritis, but cost limits their use. This article assesses data on patients who have achieved remission or low disease activity with these drugs and the possibility of dose reduction or discontinuation in these patients.

Objective: To compare the efficacy of etanercept (ETN) and methotrexate (MTX) versus MTX monotherapy for remission induction in patients with early inflammatory arthritis., Methods: In a 78-week multicentre randomised placebo-controlled superiority trial, 110 DMARD-naïve patients with early clinical synovitis (≥1 tender and swollen joint, and within 3 months of diagnosis) and either rheumatoid factor, anticitrullinated protein antibodies or shared epitope positive were randomised 1:1 to receive MTX+ETN or MTX+placebo (PBO) for 52 weeks. Injections (ETN or PBO) were stopped in all patients at week 52. In those with no tender or swollen joints (NTSJ) for >26 weeks, injections were stopped early. If patients had NTSJ >12 weeks after stopping the injections, MTX was weaned. The primary endpoint was NTSJ at week 52., Results: No statistically significant difference was seen for the primary endpoint (NTSJ at week 52 (32.5% vs 28.1% [adjusted OR 1.32 (0.56 to 3.09), p=0.522]) in the MTX+ETN and MTX+PBO groups, respectively). The secondary endpoints did not differ between groups at week 52 or 78. Exploratory analyses showed a higher proportions of patients with DAS28-CRP<2.6 in the MTX+ETN group at week 2 (38.5% vs 9.2%, adjusted OR 8.87 (2.53 to 31.17), p=0.001) and week 12 (65.1% vs 43.8%, adjusted OR 2.49 (1.12 to 5.54), p=0.026)., Conclusions: In this group of patients with early inflammatory arthritis, almost a third had no tender, swollen joints after 1 year. MTX+ETN was not superior to MTX monotherapy in achieving this outcome. Clinical responses, however, including DAS28-CRP<2.6, were achieved earlier with MTX+ETN combination therapy., Trial Registration Number: The EMPIRE trial is registered on the following trial registries: Eudract-2005-005467-29; ISRCTN 55428162 (http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN55428162/EMPIRE). The full trial protocol can be obtained from the corresponding author.

Objectives: To update the evidence for the efficacy of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARD) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to inform the European League Against Rheumatism(EULAR) Task Force treatment recommendations., Methods: Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched for articles published between January 2009 and February 2013 on infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, certolizumab-pegol, golimumab, anakinra, abatacept, rituximab, tocilizumab and biosimilar DMARDs (bsDMARDs) in phase 3 development. Abstracts from 2011 to 2012 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and 2011-2013 EULAR conferences were obtained., Results: Fifty-one full papers, and 57 abstracts were identified. The randomised controlled trials (RCT) confirmed the efficacy of bDMARD+conventional synthetic DMARDs (csDMARDs) versus csDMARDs alone (level 1B evidence). There was some additional evidence for the use of bDMARD monotherapy, however bDMARD and MTX combination therapy for all bDMARD classes was more efficacious (1B). Clinical and radiographic responses were high with treat-to-target strategies. Earlier improvement in signs and symptoms were seen with more intensive initial treatment strategies, but outcomes were similar upon addition of bDMARDs in patients with insufficient response to MTX. In general, radiographic progression was lower with bDMARD use, mainly due to initial treatment effects. Although patients may achieve bDMARD- and drug-free remission, maintenance of clinical responses was higher with bDMARD continuation (1B), but bDMARD dose reduction could be applied (1B). There was still no RCT data for bDMARD switching., Conclusions: The systematic literature review confirms efficacy of biological DMARDs in RA. It addresses different treatment strategies with the potential for reduction in therapy, particularly with early disease control, and highlights emerging therapies.

Objectives: To update the evidence for the safety of synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (sDMARDs), glucocorticoids (GC) and biological DMARDs (bDMARDs) in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to inform the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) recommendations for the management of RA., Methods: Systematic literature review (SLR) of observational studies (including registries). Interventions were any bDMARD (anakinra, infliximab, etanercept, adalimumab, rituximab, abatacept, tocilizumab, golimumab or certolizumab pegol) or sDMARD (methotrexate, leflunomide, hydroxychloroquine, sulfasalazine, gold/auranofin, azathioprine, chlorambucil, chloroquine, cyclosporin, cyclophosphamide, mycophenolate, minocycline, penicillamine, tacrolimus or tofacitinib) and a comparator was required. Information on GCs was collected from the included studies. All safety outcomes were included., Results: Forty-nine observational studies addressing diverse safety outcomes of therapy with bDMARDs met eligibility criteria. Substantial heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis of any of the outcomes. Patients on tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi) compared to patients on conventional sDMARDs had a higher risk of serious infections (adjusted HR (aHR) 1.1-1.8), a higher risk of tuberculosis, and an increased risk of infection by herpes zoster cannot be excluded. Patients on TNFi did not have an increased risk for malignancies in general, lymphoma or non-melanoma skin cancer, but the risk of melanoma may be slightly increased (aHR 1.5). From the studies identified on conventional sDMARDs, no new safety signals were found., Conclusions: The findings from this SLR confirm the known safety pattern of sDMARDs and bDMARDs for the treatment of RA.

Objective: Arthritis activity assessments in psoriatic arthritis (PsA) have traditionally relied on tender and swollen joint counts, but in rheumatoid arthritis, multiple studies have demonstrated subclinical inflammation using modern imaging. The aim of this study was to compare clinical examination and ultrasound (US) findings in an early PsA cohort., Methods: Forty-nine disease-modifying antirheumatic drug-naive patients with recent-onset PsA (median disease duration 10 months) underwent gray-scale (GS) and power Doppler (PD) US of 40 joints plus tender and swollen joint counts of 68/66 joints. GS and PD were scored on a 0-3 semiquantitative scale for each joint. Clinically active joints were defined as tender and/or swollen and US active joints were defined as a GS score ≥2 and/or a PD score ≥1., Results: The most common sites for subclinical synovitis were the wrist (30.6%), knee (21.4%), metatarsophalangeal (MTP) joints (26.5-33.7%), and metacarpophalangeal joints (10.2-19.4%). Excluding MTP joints and ankles, 37 (75.5%) of 49 patients had subclinical synovitis with a median of 3 (interquartile range [IQR] 1-4) joints involved. In contrast, clinical overestimation of synovitis occurred most commonly at the shoulder (38%) and ankle (28.6%). Twelve of 49 patients were classified clinically as having oligoarthritis; of these, subclinical synovitis identified 8 (75%) as having polyarthritis with an increase in their median joint count from 3 (IQR 1-4) to 6 (IQR 5-7)., Conclusion: This study has demonstrated that subclinical synovitis, as identified by US, is very common in early PsA and led to the majority of oligoarthritis patients being reclassified as having polyarthritis. Further research is required into the relationship of such subclinical synovitis to structural progression., (© 2014 The Authors. Arthritis Care & Research is published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Rheumatology.)

Objectives: In disease modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD)-naive early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), to compare the efficacy of methotrexate (MTX) and infliximab (IFX) with MTX and intravenous corticosteroid for remission induction., Methods: In a 78-week multicentre randomised controlled trial, double-blinded to week 26, 112 treatment-naive RA patients (1987 American College of Rheumatology classification criteria) with disease activity score 44 (DAS44)>2.4 were randomised to MTX + IFX or MTX + single dose intravenous methylprednisolone 250 mg. A treat-to-target approach was used with treatment escalation if DAS44>2.4. In the IFX group, IFX was discontinued for sustained remission (DAS44<1.6 for 6 months). The primary outcome was change in modified total Sharp-van der Heijde score (mTSS) at week 50., Results: The mean changes in mTSS score at week 50 in the IFX and intravenous steroid groups were 1.20 units and 2.81 units, respectively (adjusted difference (95% CI) -1.45 (-3.35 to 0.45); p=0.132). Radiographic non-progression (mTSS<2.0) occurred in 81% vs 71% (OR 1.77 (0.56 to 5.61); p=0.328). DAS44 remission was achieved at week 50 in 49% and 36% (OR 2.13 (0.91 to 5.00); p=0.082), and at week 78 in 48% and 50% (OR 1.12 (0.47 to 2.68); p=0.792). Exploratory analyses suggested higher DAS28 remission at week 6 and less ultrasound synovitis at week 50 in the IFX group. Of the IFX group, 25% (14/55) achieved sustained remission and stopped IFX. No substantive differences in adverse events were seen., Conclusions: In DMARD-naive early RA patients, initial therapy with MTX+high-dose intravenous steroid resulted in good disease control with little structural damage. MTX+IFX was not statistically superior to MTX+intravenous steroid when combined with a treat-to-target approach.

The use of biological disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (bDMARDs) has changed the face of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Achieving remission, normal function and prevention of joint damage are now possible for many patients with RA. In clinical practice, however, particularly with cost considerations, bDMARDs are usually prescribed after failure of one or more conventional synthetic DMARDs. With evidence that early treatment has a greater impact than later on, the question regarding initial bDMARD therapy and their potential role within a window of opportunity to influence disease outcomes remain. The increasing emphasis on early diagnosis and research into the preclinical phase of the disease also heralds the question, 'Can bDMARDs prevent the development of RA?' The aim of this review is to review randomised controlled trials with bDMARDs as initial therapy in early RA and to discuss their role in early disease., (Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objectives: To review the evidence for the efficacy and safety of biological agents in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) to provide data to develop treatment recommendations by the European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) Task Force., Methods: Medline, Embase and Cochrane databases were searched for relevant articles on infliximab (IFX), etanercept (ETN), adalimumab (ADA), certolizumab-pegol (CZP), golimumab (GLM), anakinra (ANA), abatacept (ABT), rituximab (RTX) and tocilizumab (TCZ) published between 1962 and February 2009; published abstracts from the 2007-2008 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) and EULAR conference were obtained., Results: 87 articles and 40 abstracts were identified. In methotrexate (MTX) naïve patients, biological therapy with IFX, ETN, ADA, GLM or ABT has been shown to improve clinical outcomes (level of evidence 1B). In MTX/other synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drug (DMARD) failures all nine biological agents confer benefit (1B), with lower efficacy noted for ANA. RTX, ABT, TCZ and GLM demonstrate efficacy in tumour necrosis factor inhibitor (TNFi) failures (1B). Less evidence exists for switching between IFX, ETN and ADA (3B). Biological and MTX combination therapy is more efficacious than a biological agent alone (1B). A safety review shows no increased malignancy risk compared with conventional DMARDs (3B). TNFi are generally associated with an increased risk of serious bacterial infection, particularly within the first 6 months of treatment initiation; increased tuberculosis (TB) rates with TNFi are highest with the monoclonal antibodies (3B)., Conclusions: There is good evidence for the efficacy of biological agents in patients with RA. Safety data confirm an increased risk of bacterial infection and TB with TNFi compared with conventional DMARDs.