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Explainable AI is an evolving area that deals with understanding the decision making of machine learning models so that these models are more transparent, accountable, and understandable for humans. In particular, post-hoc model-agnostic interpretable AI techniques explain the decisions of a black-box ML model for a single instance locally, without the knowledge of the intrinsic nature of the ML model. Despite their simplicity and capability in providing valuable insights, existing approaches fail to deliver consistent and reliable explanations. Moreover, in the context of black-box classifiers, existing approaches justify the predicted class, but these methods do not ensure that the explanation scores strongly differ as compared to those of another class. In this work we propose a novel post-hoc model agnostic XAI technique that provides contrastive explanations justifying the classification of a black box classifier along with a reasoning as to why another class was not predicted. Our method, which we refer to as CLIMAX which is short for Contrastive Label-aware Influence-based Model Agnostic XAI, is based on local classifiers . In order to ensure model fidelity of the explainer, we require the perturbations to be such that it leads to a class-balanced surrogate dataset. Towards this, we employ a label-aware surrogate data generation method based on random oversampling and Gaussian Mixture Model sampling. Further, we propose influence subsampling in order to retaining effective samples and hence ensure sample complexity. We show that we achieve better consistency as compared to baselines such as LIME, BayLIME, and SLIME. We also depict results on textual and image based datasets, where we generate contrastive explanations for any black-box classification model where one is able to only query the class probabilities for an instance of interest., Comment: 11 Pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, 2 algorithms

Causal machine learning (ML) algorithms recover graphical structures that tell us something about cause-and-effect relationships. The causal representation praovided by these algorithms enables transparency and explainability, which is necessary for decision making in critical real-world problems. Yet, causal ML has had limited impact in practice compared to associational ML. This paper investigates the challenges of causal ML with application to COVID-19 UK pandemic data. We collate data from various public sources and investigate what the various structure learning algorithms learn from these data. We explore the impact of different data formats on algorithms spanning different classes of learning, and assess the results produced by each algorithm, and groups of algorithms, in terms of graphical structure, model dimensionality, sensitivity analysis, confounding variables, predictive and interventional inference. We use these results to highlight open problems in causal structure learning and directions for future research. To facilitate future work, we make all graphs, models, data sets, and source code publicly available online.

Player synergies are a salient feature of team sports. In the team game of cricket, player synergies may be reflected in batting partnerships. Batting partnerships have been analysed extensively. In this paper, we introduce and precisely define bowling partnerships. We explain their importance, and analyse ball-by-ball data from three formats of the game: 2,034 one-day international matches, 634 Test matches and 1,432 Twenty-20 international matches, in order to find such bowling partnerships ("bowlerships"). We find that bowlerships exist. Further, we construct bowlership networks based on these pairwise synergies. We assert that these bowlership networks can be analysed for team selection before a match, and making bowling changes during the match. We present Algorithm bowler-select that selects a team based on bowlerships., Comment: 34 pages