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Highlights • The relative export competitiveness (REC) for India and her competitors is developed. • The REC covers exports of sugar, rice, wheat, and cotton, each relative to other exports. • India's rice, cotton, and sugar are competitively advantaged but not wheat. • The REC is time varying and is mainly lower for India than her competitors. • An attempt is made to explain the determinants of the REC. Abstract In this paper, we derive time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of India's top agricultural exports (rice, wheat, cotton and sugar) against India's share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world exports (REC_WE) from 1961 to 2012. We reveal that India's exports of all four commodities became relatively competitive over time but these were not as competitive as the top, or selected emerging, exporters of the four commodities. We also examine the determinants of REC in these four commodities focusing on factors including crop-specific and aggregate factor endowments, domestic price, export prices, and GDP per capital, preferential trade agreements, export restrictions and bans, and India's Green Revolution. The regression analysis was mainly confined to the 1981–2012, due to data constraints. We find that the time series regression results are similar in sign and significance for REC_WE and REC_WA. Our key findings suggest the REC in wheat, rice, and cotton deteriorated as a result of export restrictions. Capital had negative effects on cotton REC. Labor and farm size did not influence the REC in the commodities. The Green Revolution improved the REC in rice and cotton (in Phase 3). The WTO had a positive effect on the REC in rice. The South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) Agreement adversely affected the REC in wheat and rice but strengthened the REC in cotton and sugar. Higher domestic price reduced the REC in cotton. Higher per capita income strengthens the REC in wheat with a lag. We explain these results and suggest policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Concerned by the volatility of Bitcoin price growth (BPG), Bank Indonesia—Indonesia's central bank—discourages trading cryptocurrencies. We examine the relationship between Bitcoin price growth (BPG) and Indonesia's monetary aggregates (inflation, real exchange rate, and money velocity). In doing so, we develop the conceptual link between Bitcoin and monetary aggregates. We find strong and robust evidence that BPG leads to inflation growth, currency appreciation, and a reduction in money velocity. Our results have policy implications for other central banks in terms of achieving stability of the monetary system if BPG is indeed a concern for those countries. Highlights • We test whether Bitcoin price growth (BPG) influences Indonesia's monetary aggregates. • We develop the conceptual link between BPG and monetary aggregates. • Robust evidence is found that BPG leads to inflation growth. • BPG contributes to currency appreciation, and a reduction in money velocity. • Results have policy implications for other central banks in terms of achieving stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines whether terrorist attacks affect bilateral exchange rates. Using historical 10-minute exchange rate data for 21 countries' currency vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar, we show that exchange rate returns of all countries are statistically significantly affected by terrorist attacks. Some exchange rates appreciate and some depreciate following a terrorist attack, some currencies experience exchange rate reversals while others experience a persistent effect. Generally, the effect declines but persists as terrorist attacks become stale information. ( JEL F31, F37) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we test for predictability of excess stock returns for 18 emerging markets. Using a range of macroeconomic and institutional factors, through a principal component analysis, we find some evidence of in-sample predictability for 15 countries. In-sample predictability is corroborated by out-of-sample tests. Using a mean-variance investor framework, we show that investors in most of these emerging markets can make significant profits from dynamic trading strategies. Finally, we show that investors in most countries where short-selling is prohibited could make significant gains if limited borrowing and short-selling were allowed. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study examines the impact of non-renewable and renewable energy consumption on economic growth, differentiating between manufacturing and services growth. We derive our empirical model from an endogenous growth framework with expanding variety of intermediate capital goods embedding non-renewable and renewable energy inputs. Controlling for well-established growth determinants, we estimate the effects of non-renewable and renewable energy consumption, differentiated by type of use — industrial, residential, and total final energy consumption — on manufacturing and services growth. We find that renewable energy enhances growth in high-growth sectors, i.e. the services sector in high-income economies and the manufacturing sector in middle-income economies. In the case of high-income countries, renewable energy is a complement to non-renewables, whereas in the case of middle-income countries the two are substitutes. The growth effects are primarily due to industrial energy consumption. T Based on our findings, we propose that an effective renewable energy incentives policy for middle-income countries should be directed at manufacturing enterprises, and in high-income countries these incentives should be directed at the services sector. • Endogenous growth framework with expanding variety of intermediate goods for energy consumption. • We test the effects renewables and non-renewables on the growth of manufacturing and services. • Renewable energy enhances growth in high-growth sectors. • These sectors are services in high-income and manufacturing in middle-income economies. • The growth effects are due to industrial energy and not to residential energy consumption. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose – This paper aims to investigate the integrational properties of real GDP for 125 countries. Design/methodology/approach – The paper applies the Kwiatkowski et al. univariate test and a KPSS-type univariate test that accounts for multiple structural breaks – a test procedure proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. The panel versions of the KPSS-type test, proposed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. with and without structural breaks, are also applied. Findings – The paper finds that, while univariate tests with and without structural breaks provide mixed results on persistence, the panel test suggests that shocks to national output are persistent. Originality/value – This is a multi-country study that focuses on both developed and developing countries and uses more recent data to provide new and comparable evidence on the persistence of output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Price clustering can be a source of market inefficiency. It follows that searching for price clustering in markets have gone beyond share prices into real estate, interest rate, and exchange rate markets. In this paper, we extend this line of research to oil futures markets. In particular, we consider five different forms of oil futures contracts and test for evidence of price clustering. Our results reveal strong presence of price clustering in the oil futures market. This finding implies that price clustering can potentially be a source of oil market inefficiency, which can influence trading strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: In this paper we examine the long-run relationship between gold and oil spot and futures markets. We draw on the conceptual framework that when oil price rises, it creates inflationary pressures, which instigate investments in gold as a hedge against inflation. We test for the long-run relationship between gold and oil futures prices at different maturity and unravel evidence of cointegration. This implies that: (a) investors use the gold market as a hedge against inflation and (b) the oil market can be used to predict the gold market prices and vice versa, thus these two markets are jointly inefficient, at least for the sample period considered in this study. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to undertake a panel data investigation of long-run Granger causality between electricity consumption and real GDP for seven panels, which together consist of 93 countries. We use a new panel causality test and find that in the long-run both electricity consumption and real GDP have a bidirectional Granger causality relationship except for the Middle East where causality runs only from GDP to electricity consumption. Finally, for the G6 panel the estimates reveal a negative sign effect, implying that increasing electricity consumption in the six most industrialised nations will reduce GDP. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper, our goal is to examine the unit root null hypothesis in energy consumption for Australian states and territory. We consider sectoral energy consumption for Australia and its six states and one territory using time series data for the period 1973–2007. This is the first study that does this. Generally, except for some cases in South Australia, we find strong support that shocks to energy consumption have a temporary effect on energy consumption in Australia. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to examine the long-run elasticities of the impacts of energy consumption on GDP and GDP on energy consumption. The energy consumption–GDP relationship is amongst the most popular relationships examined in the energy economics literature. The bulk of the extant literature has assumed a positive relationship between energy consumption and real GDP. Our analysis shows that in only around 60% of the countries considered the relationship is positive. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: The goal of this paper is to model the impact of oil prices on Vietnam’s stock prices. We use daily data for the period 2000–2008 and include the nominal exchange rate as an additional determinant of stock prices. We find that stock prices, oil prices and nominal exchange rates are cointegrated, and oil prices have a positive and statistically significant impact on stock prices. This result is inconsistent with theoretical expectations. The growth of the Vietnamese stock market was accompanied by rising oil prices. However, the boom of the stock market was marked by increasing foreign portfolio investment inflows which are estimated to have doubled from US$0.9 billion in 2005 to US$1.9 billion in 2006. There was also a change in preferences from holding foreign currencies and domestic bank deposits to stocks local market participants, and there was a rise in leveraged investment in stock as well as investments on behalf of relatives living abroad. It seems that the impact of these internal and domestic factors were more dominant than the oil price rise on the Vietnamese stock market. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: In this paper we examine the role of environmental quality in determining per capita health expenditures. We take a panel cointegration approach in order to explore the possibility of estimating both short-run and long-run impacts of environmental quality. Our empirical analysis is based on eight OECD countries, namely Austria, Denmark, Iceland, Ireland, Norway, Spain, Switzerland, and the UK for the period 1980–1999. We find that per capita health expenditure, per capita income, carbon monoxide emissions, sulphur oxide emissions and nitrogen oxide emissions are panel cointegrated. While short-run elasticities reveal that income and carbon monoxide emissions exert a statistically significant positive effect on health expenditures, in the long-run in addition to income and carbon monoxide, we find that sulphur oxide emissions have a statistically significant positive impact on health expenditures. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Fiji's total debt stands at 65% of GDP. Domestic debt constitutes 55% of GDP. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether military expenditure has contributed to Fiji's exploding debt levels over the period 1970 to 2005. Our empirical analysis, conducted within a cointegration and vector error-correction framework, suggests that, in the long-run, military expenditure has had a statistically significant positive impact on both external debt and domestic debt, while income has had a statistically significant positive impact on domestic debt and a statistically significant negative impact on external debt. We explain the reasons behind this finding and draw some policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper aims to examine the export-led growth hypothesis for Fiji and Papua New Guinea (PNG). Design/methodology/approach - The paper investigates the export-led growth hypothesis for Fiji and PNG who have been facing dismal economic growth performances over the last couple of decades. Findings - Findings of the study suggest that for Fiji there is evidence of export-led growth in the long-run, while for PNG there is evidence of export-led growth in the short-run. Originality/value - The findings of this paper have important messages for policy makers given that export sectors in both countries investigated are underdeveloped due mainly to a sustained period of political instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose - This paper aims to estimate a disaggregated import demand model for Fiji using relative prices, total consumption, investment expenditure and export expenditure variables for the period 1970 to 2000. Design/methodology/approach - The recently developed bounds testing approach to cointegration to test for a long run relationship is used, while the autoregressive distributed lag model is used to estimate short run and long run elasticities. These methodologies are shown to perform well in small sample sizes, particularly given that the bounds F-test critical values for small sample sizes generated by Narayan in 2004 and 2005 are used. Findings - Amongst the key results it is found: a long run cointegration relationship among the variables when import demand is the dependent variable and import demand to be inelastic and statistically significant at the 1 per cent level with respect to all the explanatory variables in both the long-run and the short-run. Originality/value - The disaggregated import demand model estimated here provides a complete picture of the determinants of Fiji's imports. This model can be used by Fijian policy makers to draw pertinent policies and forecast import demand for Fiji. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction is presented to the article “Relative export competitiveness of agricultural commodities and its determinants: Some evidence from India” which appeared in the May 2019 issue.

In this paper we examine the influence of clean (hydropower) or dirty (fossil fuel generated) energy on bilateral exports. We focus on bilateral exports from Vietnam, a developing nation with a fast-growing economy propelled by international trade, to her top 54 trading partners over the period 1986–2010. Our key results suggest that there is a significant, positive, and stable long-term relationship between electricity and exports, with some variations across the regional panels of the trading partners and electricity sources. Trading partners of Vietnam are sensitive to how electricity is generated. For trading partners from regions excluding low income Asia, bilateral exports respond more to renewables than fossil fuel generated electricity, which indicates that exports are sensitive to certain qualities of energy sources, namely reliability and price competitiveness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For 77 technology-investing countries we test whether their stock market returns are predictable. We find that exchange rate returns and U.S. stock excess returns predict stock market returns for most countries in our sample, while crude oil and inflation predict returns of less than 40% of countries. While in out-of-sample tests the evidence of predictability declines, U.S. returns still beat the constant returns model for three-quarters of countries in our sample. A portfolio of all 77 countries offers a mean-variance investor annualized profits of between 5.7% and 8.0%, and profits are maximized when return forecasts are based on U.S. returns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decentralized revolution being ushered in by blockchain, an emerging technology with the potential to bring significant innovation and benefits, has also piqued the interest of major players in the energy supply industry, financial institutions, technology developers, academia, and national governments. How the deep integration of blockchain and energy will impact energy's prospects and the energy market remains an open question. This study conducts a composite of qualitative and quantitative analyses of 622 selected articles on blockchain in the energy field. It is dedicated to identifying feasible technical paths and potential themes. The results show that (1) Research in this field follows two main approaches: engineering- and management-oriented. (2) Management-oriented research has become mainstream. (3) Research has led to new transaction systems, and the commercialization of energy blockchains has driven research iterations. Thematic predictions call for more attention to the negative impacts of technology, such as new business risks, the problem of lagging regulations, and the drawbacks of high energy consumption. This study provides research references and practical suggestions for researchers, regulators, and enterprises. • This study explores energy blockchain research trends and paths. • The compositional strategy improves robustness and validates method inferences. • Engineering and management research are the main categories promoting each other. • Management-oriented blockchain commercialization research dominates. • Discussing blockchain's detrimental influence on energy is important. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]