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Background: Melanoma risk prediction models could be useful for matching preventive interventions to patients’ risk. Objectives: To develop and validate a model for incident first‐primary cutaneous melanoma using clinically assessed risk factors. Methods: We used unconditional logistic regression with backward selection from the Australian Melanoma Family Study (461 cases and 329 controls) in which age, sex and city of recruitment were kept in each step, and we externally validated it using the Leeds Melanoma Case–Control Study (960 cases and 513 controls). Candidate predictors included clinically assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed pigmentation phenotype, sun exposure, family history and history of keratinocyte cancer. We evaluated the predictive strength and discrimination of the model risk factors using odds per age‐ and sex‐adjusted SD (OPERA) and the area under curve (AUC), and calibration using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Results: The final model included the number of naevi ≥ 2 mm in diameter on the whole body, solar lentigines on the upper back (a six‐level scale), hair colour at age 18 years and personal history of keratinocyte cancer. Naevi was the strongest risk factor; the OPERA was 3·51 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2·71–4·54] in the Australian study and 2·56 (95% CI 2·23–2·95) in the Leeds study. The AUC was 0·79 (95% CI 0·76–0·83) in the Australian study and 0·73 (95% CI 0·70–0·75) in the Leeds study. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test P‐value was 0·30 in the Australian study and < 0·001 in the Leeds study. Conclusions: This model had good discrimination and could be used by clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for the targeting of preventive interventions. What's already known about this topic? Melanoma risk prediction models may be useful in prevention by tailoring interventions to personalized risk levels. For reasons of feasibility, time and cost many melanoma prediction models use self‐assessed risk factors. However, individuals tend to underestimate their naevus numbers. What does this study add? We present a melanoma risk prediction model, which includes clinically‐assessed whole‐body naevi and solar lentigines, and self‐assessed risk factors including pigmentation phenotype and history of keratinocyte cancer. This model performs well on discrimination, the model's ability to distinguish between individuals with and without melanoma, and may assist clinicians to stratify patients by melanoma risk for targeted preventive interventions.

Little is known on whether melanocortin 1 receptor (MC1R) associated cutaneous melanoma (CM) risk varies depending on histological subtype and body site, and whether tumour thickness at diagnosis (the most important prognostic factor for CM patients) differs between MC1R variant carriers and wild-type individuals. We studied the association between MC1R variants and CM risk by histological subtype, body site, and Breslow thickness, using the database of the M-SKIP project. We pooled individual data from 15 case-control studies conducted during 2005-2015 in Europe and the USA. Study-specific, multi-adjusted odds ratios were pooled into summary odds ratios (SOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using random-effects models. Six thousand eight hundred ninety-one CM cases and 5555 controls were included. CM risk was increased among MC1R variant carriers vs. wild-type individuals. The increase in risk was comparable across histological subtypes (SOR for any variant vs. wild-type ranged between 1.57 and 1.70, always statistical significant) except acral lentiginous melanoma (ALM), for which no association emerged; and slightly greater on chronically (1.74, 95% CI 1.47-2.07) than intermittently (1.55, 95% CI 1.34-1.78) sun-exposed skin. CM risk was greater for those carrying 'R' vs. 'r' variants; correlated with the number of variants; and was more evident among individuals not showing the red hair colour phenotype. Breslow thickness was not associated with MC1R status. MC1R variants were associated with an increased risk of CM of any histological subtype (except ALM) and occurring on both chronically and intermittently sun-exposed skin. Copyright © 2020 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

1α,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3 signals via the Vitamin D Receptor (VDR). Higher serum vitamin D is associated with thinner primary melanoma and better outcome, although a causal mechanism has not been established. As melanoma patients commonly avoid sun exposure, and consequent vitamin D deficiency might worsen outcomes, we interrogated 703 primary melanoma transcriptomes to understand the role of vitamin D-VDR signalling and replicated the findings in TCGA metastases. VDR expression was independently protective for melanoma death in both primary and metastatic disease. High tumor VDR expression was associated with upregulation of pathways mediating anti-tumor immunity and correspondingly with higher imputed immune cell scores and histologically detected tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). High VDR expressing tumors had downregulation of proliferative pathways, notably Wnt/beta-catenin signaling. Deleterious low VDR levels resulted from promoter methylation and gene deletion in metastases. Vitamin D deficiency (< 25 nmol/l ~ 10 ng/ml) shortened survival in primary melanoma in a VDR-dependent manner. In vitro functional validation studies showed that elevated vitamin D-VDR signaling inhibited Wnt/beta-catenin signaling genes. Murine melanoma cells overexpressing VDR produced fewer pulmonary metastases than controls in tail vein metastasis assays. In summary, vitamin D-VDR signaling contributes to controlling pro-proliferative/immunosuppresive Wnt/beta-catenin signaling in melanoma and this is associated with less metastatic disease and stronger host immune responses. This is evidence of the causal relationship between vitamin D-VDR signaling and melanoma survival which should be explored as a therapeutic target in primary resistance to checkpoint blockade.

Background: Germline variants in the melanocortin 1 receptor gene (MC1R) might increase the risk of childhood and adolescent melanoma, but a clear conclusion is challenging because of the low number of studies and cases. We assessed the association of MC1R variants with childhood and adolescent melanoma in a large study comparing the prevalence of MC1R variants in child or adolescent patients with melanoma to that in adult patients with melanoma and in healthy adult controls. Methods: In this retrospective pooled analysis, we used the M-SKIP Project, the Italian Melanoma Intergroup, and other European groups (with participants from Australia, Canada, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Serbia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, and the USA) to assemble an international multicentre cohort. We gathered phenotypic and genetic data from children or adolescents diagnosed with sporadic single-primary cutaneous melanoma at age 20 years or younger, adult patients with sporadic single-primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed at age 35 years or older, and healthy adult individuals as controls. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for childhood and adolescent melanoma associated with MC1R variants by multivariable logistic regression. Subgroup analysis was done for children aged 18 or younger and 14 years or younger. Findings: We analysed data from 233 young patients, 932 adult patients, and 932 healthy adult controls. Children and adolescents had higher odds of carrying MC1R r variants than did adult patients (OR 1·54, 95% CI 1·02–2·33), including when analysis was restricted to patients aged 18 years or younger (1·80, 1·06–3·07). All investigated variants, except Arg160Trp, tended, to varying degrees, to have higher frequencies in young patients than in adult patients, with significantly higher frequencies found for Val60Leu (OR 1·60, 95% CI 1·05–2·44; p=0·04) and Asp294His (2·15, 1·05–4·40; p=0·04). Compared with those of healthy controls, young patients with melanoma had significantly higher frequencies of any MC1R variants. Interpretation: Our pooled analysis of MC1R genetic data of young patients with melanoma showed that MC1R r variants were more prevalent in childhood and adolescent melanoma than in adult melanoma, especially in patients aged 18 years or younger. Our findings support the role of MC1R in childhood and adolescent melanoma susceptibility, with a potential clinical relevance for developing early melanoma detection and preventive strategies. Funding: SPD-Pilot/Project-Award-2015; AIRC-MFAG-11831. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd

Background \ud \ud Studies evaluating a relationship of vitamin D in patients with primary melanoma have consistently identi fi ed an inverse correlation with Breslow thickness, but an inconsistent impact on survival. Vitamin D in later stages of melanoma has been less studied. \ud \ud Methods\ud \ud Vitamin D was measured in serum from 341 patients with resected stage IIB – IIIC melanoma recruited to the AVAST-M adjuvant melanoma randomised trial, collected prior to randomisation, then at 3 and 12 months. Vitamin D levels were compared with patient demographics, known melanoma prognostic factors, disease-free interval (DFI) and overall survival (OS). \ud \ud Results \ud \ud A total of 73% patients had stage III melanoma, 32% were enroled (and therefore tested) >1 year after primary melanoma diagnosis. Median pre-randomisation vitamin D level was 56.5 (range 12.6 – 189.0 nmol/L). Vitamin D levels did not signi fi cantly vary over 12 months ( p = 0.24). Individual pre-randomisation vitamin D levels did not differ signi fi cantly for Breslow thickness, tumour ulceration, or disease stage. Neither did pre-randomisation vitamin D predict for DFI (HR = 0.98 per 10 nmol/L increase; 95% con fi dence interval (CI) 0.93 – 1.04, p = 0.59) or OS (HR = 0.96 per 10 nmol/L increase, 95% CI 0.90 – 1.03, p = 0.31). For stage II patients, DFI improved with higher pre-randomisation vitamin D levels for those on bevacizumab (HR = 0.74 per 10 nmol nmol/L increase; 95% CI 0.56 – 0.97), but not for the observation arm (HR = 1.07 per 10 nmol/L increase; 95% CI 0.85 – 1.34). \ud \ud Conclusions \ud \ud In this stage II/III melanoma cohort, vitamin D did not correlate with known prognostic markers, nor predict for DFI or OS, but there was some evidence of bene fi t for patients with stage II disease treated with bevacizumab \ud

Immunotherapy prolongs survival in only a subset of melanoma patients, highlighting the need to better understand the driver tumor microenvironment. We conducted bioinformatic analyses of 703 transcriptomes to probe the immune landscape of primary cutaneous melanomas in a population-ascertained cohort. We identified and validated 6 immunologically distinct subgroups, with the largest having the lowest immune scores and the poorest survival. This poor-prognosis subgroup exhibited expression profiles consistent with β-catenin–mediated failure to recruit CD141+ DCs. A second subgroup displayed an equally bad prognosis when histopathological factors were adjusted for, while 4 others maintained comparable survival profiles. The 6 subgroups were replicated in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) melanomas, where β-catenin signaling was also associated with low immune scores predominantly related to hypomethylation. The survival benefit of high immune scores was strongest in patients with double-WT tumors for BRAF and NRAS, less strong in BRAF-V600 mutants, and absent in NRAS (codons 12, 13, 61) mutants. In summary, we report evidence for a β-catenin–mediated immune evasion in 42% of melanoma primaries overall and in 73% of those with the worst outcome. We further report evidence for an interaction between oncogenic mutations and host response to melanoma, suggesting that patient stratification will improve immunotherapeutic outcomes.